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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn – Labour’s election gift to Mrs. May and the Tor

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said that Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

    The information Trump relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

    The partner had not given the United States permission to share the material with Russia, and officials said that Trump’s decision to do so risks cooperation from an ally that has access to the inner workings of the Islamic State. After Trump’s meeting, senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and National Security Agency.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html?utm_term=.0f98c8a44c2a

    I wonder if the head of ISIS is a CIA mole. :p
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569

    President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said that Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

    The information Trump relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

    The partner had not given the United States permission to share the material with Russia, and officials said that Trump’s decision to do so risks cooperation from an ally that has access to the inner workings of the Islamic State. After Trump’s meeting, senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and National Security Agency.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html?utm_term=.0f98c8a44c2a

    Those photo's the Russians have come in handy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/864228947411832832

    PB Tories 4 Corbyn, rejoice!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,211
    edited May 2017

    I'm not sure last time Scottish troops were in East Lothian it ended well
    Not for the Hanoverians anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,550
    OUT said:

    Those photo's the Russians have come in handy.
    Why do I get the feeling at some point in the near future the video of those Russian prostitutes peeing in front of Donald Trump is going to be leaked, and I'll be forced to watch it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can tell how well Labour's election campaign is going by the fact that the next leadership election campaign is already being trailed in the press.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said that Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

    The information Trump relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.

    The partner had not given the United States permission to share the material with Russia, and officials said that Trump’s decision to do so risks cooperation from an ally that has access to the inner workings of the Islamic State. After Trump’s meeting, senior White House officials took steps to contain the damage, placing calls to the CIA and National Security Agency.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html?utm_term=.0f98c8a44c2a


    Very responsible of the sources to blab the whole thing to the WaPo, then.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tempus Fugit - this month (the 29th) is the centenary of JFK's birth.

    Even today, in Dealey Plaza it is aways November 22nd, 1963.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    hts://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/864228947411832832

    What? This has to be a feint, right? Like how Tory MPs were pretending Cameron would be fine to stay on if he lost the referendum, so they could present as loyal to the end?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    Any chance of a graph, Dr P?
    Now that I have four data points - yes :)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/864230533311713280
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    chestnut said:

    I don't recall Pinochet trying to bomb London, Birmingham, Manchester etc. The IRA did it regularly.

    Yes, and that doesn't meant that Pinochet's actions in his own country weren't awful. It's not exactly a crazy position to dislike the action of both Pinochet and the IRA.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    So the morality of these things only matter when they pose a direct threat to us? Well, it's one view I guess.
    It's the same view as those who think Stalin was actually laudable, rather than simply a necessary ally.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569

    Why do I get the feeling at some point in the near future the video of those Russian prostitutes peeing in front of Donald Trump is going to be leaked, and I'll be forced to watch it.
    In the interest of politics and it's betting implications i'm sure.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    My experience is that people who are anoraks in one obscure area, are probably anoraks in others as well (not that such mainstream stuff is obscure).

    Could be worse - anyone collect antique globes? (I kid, nor do I, but actually that might be fascinating).
    If I had enough money that is exactly what j would like to do!!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    chestnut said:

    I don't recall Pinochet trying to bomb London, Birmingham, Manchester etc. The IRA did it regularly.

    And the USA regularly bomb the living crap out of lots of countries with funny sounding names, but we're still shoulder to shoulder.

    The real world is about choosing your friends and it's obvious which ones Corbyn chose.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I thought the patio umbrella one was borderline funny, though they look to me much more like a rear view of a group of (Christian) nuns.
    If the target of the joke had been Christian nuns no one would have been bothered enough for it to make the papers

    Some religions are touchier than others
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Yes, and that doesn't meant that Pinochet's actions in his own country weren't awful. It's not exactly a crazy position to dislike the action of both Pinochet and the IRA.
    There are awful regimes in the world all the time. Very few directly attack the British people.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Good luck to you

    I had to completely change tack and retrain at 45 ( university degree through distance learning whilst working and with kids at home) BUT it was worth it.

    "Like standing on the edge of the water wondering what it will be like to jump in........."

    You will be fine-worst case scenario-you have to go back to what you did before-not great for the self esteem -but nor is it fatal.

    Go for it -and good luck.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,550
    kle4 said:

    What? This has to be a feint, right? Like how Tory MPs were pretending Cameron would be fine to stay on if he lost the referendum, so they could present as loyal to the end?
    To be fair the likes of Michael Gove were prepared for Dave to continue on, but Dave realised you lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384

    Not for the Hanoverians anyway.
    I thought 'condign' was a typo until looked it up
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Yes, and that doesn't meant that Pinochet's actions in his own country weren't awful. It's not exactly a crazy position to dislike the action of both Pinochet and the IRA.
    Indeed. But not all evils are equal, and not all support for evils is equally disqualifying.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,550
    edited May 2017
    OUT said:

    In the interest of politics and it's betting implications i'm sure.

    Yup, there was a betting market on it, and I even did a thread on it.

    Note, this thread contains some of my worst ever puns.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/15/want-to-bet-on-footage-of-that-golden-shower-appearing-on-a-porn-site-yes-wee-can/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    chestnut said:

    I don't recall Pinochet trying to bomb London, Birmingham, Manchester etc. The IRA did it regularly.

    No, he only murdered and tortured Jonny Foreigners, so no problem.

    I'm trying to remember the chronology - were the Tories cosying up to Pinochet before, after, or at the same time as they were being apologists for Apartheid?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Not saying he wasn't rooting for leave, but I doubt he was entitled to vote.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,211
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Not saying he wasn't rooting for leave, but I doubt he was entitled to vote.
    Yeah, that's why I said supporter.

    Edit: I'll at least allow he didn't bring many voters behind his standard.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    No, he only murdered and tortured Jonny Foreigners, so no problem.

    I'm trying to remember the chronology - were the Tories cosying up to Pinochet before, after, or at the same time as they were being apologists for Apartheid?
    That would be about the same time that they were arming the Khymer Rouge and the Taliban of Aghanistan too, as I recall.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Brady, inevitably, was a Nat.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384

    No, he only murdered and tortured Jonny Foreigners, so no problem.

    I'm trying to remember the chronology - were the Tories cosying up to Pinochet before, after, or at the same time as they were being apologists for Apartheid?
    All three.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017

    Sun Politics✔@SunPolitics

    Top Labour MP Clive Lewis says Jeremy Corbyn should stay as party’s leader even if he’s trounced in election

    I wonder if Lewis’ comment has anything to do with a future leadership bid in two years or so?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Brady, inevitably, was a Nat.
    The ultimate captive audience...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I couldn't find an article about him since Gorton was called off - is Galloway standing?
  • SeanT said:

    His bacon is genuinely brilliant.
    I live 5 miles from sandwich-where does he sell it??
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    Scott_P said:
    One can't help feel relieved that someone truly evil is gone... But given the body of Keith Bennett remains on those Moors and now Brady has taken that location to his grave the relief is tempered somewhat... Because he kept that final power he had over his victims to his death...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    That would be about the same time that they were arming the Khymer Rouge and the Taliban of Aghanistan too, as I recall.
    So, let me understand this - the IRA blowing up the British is equally justified?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,444
    edited May 2017

    No, he only murdered and tortured Jonny Foreigners, so no problem.

    I'm trying to remember the chronology - were the Tories cosying up to Pinochet before, after, or at the same time as they were being apologists for Apartheid?
    It's the job of British politicians to pursue British interests.

    We can be sure that Corbyn would not, if he were PM.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650

    I wonder if Lewis’ comment has anything to do with a future leadership bid in two years or so?
    He says: “So I think there’s an argument that whatever happens Jeremy Corbyn stays in and makes sure he hands the Labour party over in good order.”

    I think he missed out the words "to me" between "over" and "in".

    Smart move by Lewis.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    That would be about the same time that they were arming the Khymer Rouge and the Taliban of Aghanistan too, as I recall.
    I thought Pakistan are the chief backers of the Taliban.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    One can't help feel relieved that someone truly evil is gone... But given the body of Keith Bennett remains on those Moors and now Brady has taken that location to his grave the relief is tempered somewhat... Because he kept that final power he had over his victims to his death...
    Truly evil, or criminally insane?

    I recall the latter was the verdict of the court.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,384

    I live 5 miles from sandwich-where does he sell it??
    this is surreal
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,550

    I couldn't find an article about him since Gorton was called off - is Galloway standing?

    Yes, Galloway is standing


    http://www.manchester.gov.uk/downloads/download/6694/statement_of_persons_nominated_and_notice_of_poll
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    edited May 2017

    Yeah, that's why I said supporter.

    Edit: I'll at least allow he didn't bring many voters behind his standard.
    Crikey it was bad enough when I was a fascist, now I'm a moors murderer too.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214

    I live 5 miles from sandwich-where does he sell it??
    Between 2 bits of bread?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I live 5 miles from sandwich-where does he sell it??
    Ash? Or Ham?

    I used to spend a lot of time in Sandwich (Delf St)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    teat
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Between 2 bits of bread?
    LOL! :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    edited May 2017

    Mr Robert, jolly good. Where would such a plan leave Greece, which already has debts that will never be repaid, and, for that matter, Italy and Portugal?
    In the case of Greece, they have relatively little debt maturing. The troika deal with them basically was the world's largest "extend and pretend", essentially a very large portion of their debt is close to zero interest and doesn't come due for decades. (I'm on a plane with a very slow connection so I can't check the exact numbers right now.) If all new debt was close to free for them, and this was replacing debt they were paying 6-7% on, then they would be able to use the difference to pay down their debt. (It's funny, we use "extend and pretend" a lot and imply it isn't sorting out a problem. But if someone says that debt equivalent to 100% of GDP is not repayable for 20 years and that there's no interest on it, then that's equivalent to a massive debt write off. After all., you save 20 years of debt repayments at - ooohhh... pick a numer - 3% of GDP.)

    I'd also point out that our friends in Ireland had debt that peaked at 125-130% of GDP at the height of the Eurozone crisis and had to be bailed out by the ECB. Their debt-to-GDP is now below ours, and will likely be close to 50% by 2020.

    The Eurozone's (outside Greece) big problem is not debt loadings. It's lack of growth. And low growth is largely a consequence of poor demographics and inflexible labour markets.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I thought Pakistan are the chief backers of the Taliban.
    In 1980 it was Maggie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/dec/30/uk-mujahideen-afghanistan-soviet-invasion.

    So while Jezza was chatting to the IRA, Maggie was arming and training Islamist guerrillas.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Roger said:

    this is surreal
    Just trying to ketchup on the thread
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    BigRich said:

    teat

    feal
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    GIN1138 said:

    One can't help feel relieved that someone truly evil is gone... But given the body of Keith Bennett remains on those Moors and now Brady has taken that location to his grave the relief is tempered somewhat... Because he kept that final power he had over his victims to his death...
    Myra Hindley was cremated and her ashes scattered - presumably the same awaits Brady?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    kyf_100 said:

    Who are their opponents, and how can I donate?
    LOL! That was exactly what I thought.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    bobajobPB said:

    Just trying to ketchup on the thread
    Enjoy it with relish :wink:
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Hmm, is there a market for a tiny flutter on Gove being back in cabinet after the election?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214
    rcs1000 said:

    LOL! That was exactly what I thought.
    This Dave Hill is v good I think. Maybe he could be asked to write a thread or two on here?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    Just trying to ketchup on the thread
    TSE is around so it's bound to be saucy.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    BigRich said:

    teat

    Sucker
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Thanks goodness Brady is dead....it is similar to the UK removing the worst kind of insidious splinter that has been buried deep inside...it's gone, and with it all that awfulness......
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Tim_B said:

    Enjoy it with relish :wink:
    Wish I could, but Sandwich is a pig to get to
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    If that is an accurate quote from Clive Lewis tonight may I say how much I agree with it. As far as I am concerned Jeremy Corbyn can remain Labour leader for life. He is the best Labour leader of my lifetime.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Truly evil, or criminally insane?

    I recall the latter was the verdict of the court.
    Quite wrong. He was convicted of murder.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    He says: “So I think there’s an argument that whatever happens Jeremy Corbyn stays in and makes sure he hands the Labour party over in good order.”

    I think he missed out the words "to me" between "over" and "in".

    Smart move by Lewis.
    Yes, by "staying on" Lewis could mean staying on for one day
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    bobajobPB said:

    Sucker
    Where did that come from?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I can't help feeling that, if Labour supporters want to claim the moral high ground, they would be well advised not to make jokes about children tortured to death.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    To be fair the likes of Michael Gove were prepared for Dave to continue on, but Dave realised you lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go.
    Cos you got Gove
    Gove
    Gove on your side
    Cos you got Gove
    Gove
    Gove on your side


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N66cGvR5yvU
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214

    In 1980 it was Maggie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/dec/30/uk-mujahideen-afghanistan-soviet-invasion.

    So while Jezza was chatting to the IRA, Maggie was arming and training Islamist guerrillas.
    That'll scupper her chances of becoming PM
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:
    There are only 3 countries outside the US who would be running notable human or technical resources into IS territory.

    Not surprisingly, we are one. Who knows Mr Cheeto face there may have been blabbing to our's and the West's detriment.

    As for Paul Ryan, he might have a fire lit under his arse soon himself but his comments are, maybe but maybe not, notable.

    Watch if the GOP starts stepping a yard away from Donald, watch if Democrats start talking impeachment. There is enough connections up Capitol Hill to know if something is going to come down on the White House head, even if they don't know the detail. Everyone will want to be seem to be doing the right thing....
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Quite wrong. He was convicted of murder.
    He was moved into a secure unit after being declared insane, but that was well into the 90's IIRC.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    TSE is around so it's bound to be saucy.
    Nah - he doesn't cut the mustard
  • isamisam Posts: 41,214

    I can't help feeling that, if Labour supporters want to claim the moral high ground, they would be well advised not to make jokes about children tortured to death.

    Been done already, right enough

    https://twitter.com/naeborder/status/849646615149334529
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    chestnut said:

    I don't recall Pinochet trying to bomb London, Birmingham, Manchester etc. The IRA did it regularly.

    Hamas have never attacked the UK. So I guess no one will bother making reference to Corbyn's association with them during this campaign, it's not really relevant. Doesn't really matter what they do in their own backyard.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506

    In 1980 it was Maggie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/dec/30/uk-mujahideen-afghanistan-soviet-invasion.

    So while Jezza was chatting to the IRA, Maggie was arming and training Islamist guerrillas.
    That was the Mujahadeen NOT the Taliban. The Taliban overthrew the Mujahadeen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    In the case of Greece, they have relatively little debt maturing. The troika deal with them basically was the world's largest "extend and pretend", essentially a very large portion of their debt is close to zero interest and doesn't come due for decades. (I'm on a plane with a very slow connection so I can't check the exact numbers right now.) If all new debt was close to free for them, and this was replacing debt they were paying 6-7% on, then they would be able to use the difference to pay down their debt. (It's funny, we use "extend and pretend" a lot and imply it isn't sorting out a problem. But if someone says that debt equivalent to 100% of GDP is not repayable for 20 years and that there's no interest on it, then that's equivalent to a massive debt write off. After all., you save 20 years of debt repayments at - ooohhh... pick a numer - 3% of GDP.)

    I'd also point out that our friends in Ireland had debt that peaked at 125-130% of GDP at the height of the Eurozone crisis and had to be bailed out by the ECB. Their debt-to-GDP is now below ours, and will likely be close to 50% by 2020.

    The Eurozone's (outside Greece) big problem is not debt loadings. It's lack of growth. And low growth is largely a consequence of poor demographics and inflexible labour markets.

    In a very similar way is the UK's debt/GDP ratio really all that high? Of the £1.73tn stock of debt £0.44tn has real net interest rate of zero, is it real debt if there is no interest payable and the owner/creditor of said debt is unlikely to ever call it in given that it is essentially just a branch of the debtor?

    I would put it that the Greek bailout, all global QE (including ours) will eventually just be written off once enough time has passed in order to normalise the sovereign debt market.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    The Tory press tonight spouting the usual crap that people in the top 5% of earners are 'Middle Class'.

    Operation False Consciousness in full swing.

    Night night all.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    Truly evil, or criminally insane?

    I recall the latter was the verdict of the court.
    To be honest, I think he had only the vaguest idea where the bodies were buried...

    That said, criminally insane is arbitrary....anyone who takes pleasure in killing living, breathing sentient life should not judge someone like Brady.....
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Not that I ever believe these sub samples but could I just point out that today's polls have the SNP at 49% (ICM) and 47% (Survation).

    I know that this is not what most PBeers want to hear but could SNP vote be hardening against the reports of a Tory surge?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The Tory press tonight spouting the usual crap that people in the top 5% of earners are 'Middle Class'.

    Operation False Consciousness in full swing.

    Night night all.

    What does top 5% mean in terms of money? The difference between the top 0.1% and top 1% is pretty vast in absolute terms iirc so top 5% probably includes a lot of "ordinary" people.
  • Are you sure its not just military families - it always was.

    And I'm not sure its a really good school anymore.
    It is DEFINITELY open to all-no academic tests -but they do interview the child and make sure it is their choice as well -not just Mum and Dad palming them off.

    And it is a great school-had a problem about 5 years ago with some bullying but dealt with and now is a great school.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    tyson said:

    That said, criminally insane is arbitrary....anyone who takes pleasure in killing living, breathing sentient life should not judge someone like Brady.....

    I submit, ladies and gentlemen, the above post for your inspection. Savour it in all its full moral and political madness.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,211

    That was the Mujahadeen NOT the Taliban. The Taliban overthrew the Mujahadeen.
    Thank goodness no one from the Mujahideen ended up being a naughty boy.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited May 2017

    I can't help feeling that, if Labour supporters want to claim the moral high ground, they would be well advised not to make jokes about children tortured to death.

    RICHARD....Can you please refrain from being such a pompous, self righteous, pain in the arse, prig....just for a millisecond...thanks in advance. Kind regards Tyson....
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Jonny Geller is one of the world's top literary agents. Has he signed up 2017's Deep Throat, or what?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    Newsnight reports Labour will announce tomorrow it will renationalise the water industry too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    scotslass said:

    Not that I ever believe these sub samples but could I just point out that today's polls have the SNP at 49% (ICM) and 47% (Survation).

    I know that this is not what most PBeers want to hear but could SNP vote be hardening against the reports of a Tory surge?

    Yougov today has the SNP on 41% in a proper Scottish poll not just a subsample

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,211
    isam said:

    Crikey it was bad enough when I was a fascist, now I'm a moors murderer too.
    I'm sorry to be the one to break it to you, but you're just a bloke on the internet.
    Join the club.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight reports Labour will announce tomorrow it will renationalise the water industry too

    And the money will come from.....that magic money forest ain't half getting a bashing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    scotslass said:

    could SNP vote be hardening against the reports of a Tory surge?

    No
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    This notion that Labour is doing as well as it got under Miliband in the polls is a complete myth and I don't understand where it is coming from.

    In 2015 Labour got a bit over 31% of the GB (not UK) vote. Lets round down to 31% to keep it easy.

    According to UK Polling Report of the 11 surveys completed in May, Labour has matched the 31% once (ORB) and scored less than 31% in 10 out of 11 surveys. There has not been a single survey where Labour outperformed 31%.

    Labour is polling worse now than it achieved under Ed. That is without taking Labour's historical (including 2015) tendency to underperform polls into account.
    There were two surveys over the weekend - ORB and Opinium - putting Labour on 32%. Moreover if 2015 methodologies were still being used the polls would be showing a range of 30% - 34%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    scotslass said:

    Not that I ever believe these sub samples but could I just point out that today's polls have the SNP at 49% (ICM) and 47% (Survation).

    I know that this is not what most PBeers want to hear but could SNP vote be hardening against the reports of a Tory surge?

    Subsample klaxon! :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    MaxPB said:

    In a very similar way is the UK's debt/GDP ratio really all that high? Of the £1.73tn stock of debt £0.44tn has real net interest rate of zero, is it real debt if there is no interest payable and the owner/creditor of said debt is unlikely to ever call it in given that it is essentially just a branch of the debtor?

    I would put it that the Greek bailout, all global QE (including ours) will eventually just be written off once enough time has passed in order to normalise the sovereign debt market.
    I think that's absolutely right. I wrote a thought piece (in my previous life as a fund manager) that made exactly that point.

    Which was why hunchman was always completely bat shit crazy. There is no global government debt crisis given the creditors (the central banks) will never demand repayment.

    Where is hunchman, by the way? I haven't seen him on Finchley Road looking for the global centre of lizard government for some time.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    Newsnight reports Labour will announce tomorrow it will renationalise the water industry too

    maybe because Corbyn has no reservoir of support...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    justin124 said:

    There were two surveys over the weekend - ORB and Opinium - putting Labour on 32%. Moreover if 2015 methodologies were still being used the polls would be showing a range of 30% - 34%.
    We don't call you Justin Kill'Em Short Straws for nothing...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,211
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov today has the SNP on 41% in a proper Scottish poll not just a subsample

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
    HUYFD quoting a 'proper' poll over a sub sample.

    *faints*
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