politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn – Labour’s election gift to Mrs. May and the Tor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn – Labour’s election gift to Mrs. May and the Tories
Canvassing in S London Labour seat and every 2nd house it was Jeremy. Never heard such hostility in 4 decades.
Comments
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Do they really want to go there...like really....I mean like really....foxinsoxuk said:Jeremy from Islington on the dog and bone...
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8641512150636175360 -
Second
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Yup, any seat gains the Tories make at this election will be entirely down to Jeremy Corbyn and not Mrs May (with the exception of Don Valley, where the Tories have an exceptionally brilliant candidate)0
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22% of Labour voters want May to win while 0% of Tory voters want Corbyn to win
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-nearly-one-in-four-labour-voters-actually-want-a-conservative-government-general-election-a3539181.html?amp0 -
Yes, this could be bloody. Labour's old-style supporters know they're not going to win anything with Corbyn, so just use this election to euthanize him and his gang. If that means five years of Theresa with a vast majority then so be it - just get rid and start afresh.0
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"This is of course all reflected in the polls. Upto GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted but now large swathes of it have disappeared.
From what I can gather everything that was predicted about Corbyn’s leadership in a general election is actually happening. He is proving a massive negative and his supporters are left trying to find even more excuses."
Except that the headline VI now seems to show Labour doing little or no worse than in 2015. ICM excepted, all of the recent surveys now have Labour on 30-32% GB-wide.
All the more reason to suppose that said surveys are, in fact, bollocks.0 -
0
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I would still like to know how many of Corbyn's PMQ emails were simply made up or "organised".FrancisUrquhart said:
Do they really want to go there...like really....I mean like really....foxinsoxuk said:Jeremy from Islington on the dog and bone...
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8641512150636175360 -
I thought the 0% was more amazing. There are always a few weird people in polls (hard remainer UKIPs, for example).HYUFD said:22% of Labour voters want May to win while 0% of Tory voters want Corbyn to win
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-nearly-one-in-four-labour-voters-actually-want-a-conservative-government-general-election-a3539181.html?amp0 -
Sadly, many don't. Many haven't got a clue about the difference between the European parliament and the Commission. And most view the EU as always having been a foreign power separate from Britain, charging huge fees to impose unwanted rules. They will give you a blank look if you try to explain that the acquis was incorporated into British law post-referendum result, meaning that if it was straight cucumbers before then it will be straight cucumbers outside the union too. I have even met people who think Britain has already left the EU.williamglenn said:No, people have had 44 years of being in the EU. They know how it works.
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I would suggest 102% were organized....Diane did the maths.MattW said:
I would still like to know how many of Corbyn's PMQ emails were simply made up or "organised".FrancisUrquhart said:
Do they really want to go there...like really....I mean like really....foxinsoxuk said:Jeremy from Islington on the dog and bone...
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8641512150636175360 -
Where are these middle class parts of Dagenham and Rainham??!?!0
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I suppose there's still time for Corbyn to fall on his sword. Any non far left alternative would limit the damage even in the just over three weeks still left.0
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I'm not a serious gambler, but I have bet a fiver on Labour getting betwixt 30 and 35 percent of the vote at 9/2 and another fiver on them getting between 200 and 249 seats at 7/1. I still expect to collect both bets. I also have high hopes of the Tories taking Clegg and Farron's seats at 10/1 and 8/1 respectively, and Labour holding Burnley at 7/4. All those fiver bets went on last Monday, by the way, and all the odds have now shortened.
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If Cameron hadn't promised a referendum, we would likely have had a minority Tory govt with several UKIP MP's including Farage. It seems to me the Remainers think things would have been just like 2010-2015 w Dave, Nick and George chillaxing away, and are comparing the current situation to that0
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Given he has just hired a communist to run the GE campaign, it ain't going nowhere. The question is how do the sensible Labourites get the supreme leader out.RobC said:I suppose there's still time for Corbyn to fall on his sword. Any non far left alternative would limit the damage even in the just over three weeks still left.
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I think you could at least do a fist-pump and a Yesss!!, whatever the result, if there is still one of the more pompous luvvies on stage who personally abuse people with mobile phones.RobD said:
Shall I set you up with a portable Klaxon? Very discreet (unless it goes off).TOPPING said:
Damn. I'm at the theatre. Will have to find a way to look at my phone in Act III. Will try not to whoop if it's the right result.TheScreamingEagles said:HURRAH WE'RE GETTING AN EXIT POLL ON ELECTION NIGHT
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The workers are united against running dog Islington fop Corbyn.0
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And so says a guy who makes millions from the IPL. My heart bleeds...FrancisUrquhart said:Bloody whinging
pommesozzies...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/399241070 -
Impossible - he's a breath of fresh air I'm let to understand.0
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Close, but wrong type of gas.Scrapheap_as_was said:Impossible - he's a breath of fresh air I'm let to understand.
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The "this election is boring and unnecessary" meme is remarkably similar to the "Europe is not an issue of interest to the electorate" idea that was propagated on this site before the referendum.0
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Didn't the PB brain trust warn Labour not to make Jeremy the leader? And so it came to pass.0
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Richard Burgon type of gas?GeoffM said:
Close, but wrong type of gas.Scrapheap_as_was said:Impossible - he's a breath of fresh air I'm let to understand.
I'm genuinely worried the Tories might beat him!0 -
Huh ? 30-35% is not impossible. 200 -249 seats ? Well, I believe 190 is possible 200 + at 7/1 seems right.Ken said:I'm not a serious gambler, but I have bet a fiver on Labour getting betwixt 30 and 35 percent of the vote at 9/2 and another fiver on them getting between 200 and 249 seats at 7/1. I still expect to collect both bets. I also have high hopes of the Tories taking Clegg and Farron's seats at 10/1 and 8/1 respectively, and Labour holding Burnley at 7/4. All those fiver bets went on last Monday, by the way, and all the odds have now shortened.
Farron's seat is more likely to fall. Clegg is pretty safe, I think.0 -
Who believes a word Denis MacShane says? The former MP for Belmarsh & Brixton Prison, the ranting lunatic Gabble.
Nothing sums up the EU better than this shambling, self-centred figure.
If we were looking for a microcosm of all that is wrong with British Europhilia, who better than this chancer, this ex-Minister for Europe -- jailed for his fraudulent invoices from the “European Policy Institute”.
Jeremy is worth a thousand Gabbles.0 -
I'm smelling Tories for Burgon in the air tonight.... a new wing of the Red Team?TheScreamingEagles said:
Richard Burgon type of gas?GeoffM said:
Close, but wrong type of gas.Scrapheap_as_was said:Impossible - he's a breath of fresh air I'm let to understand.
I'm genuinely worried the Tories might beat him!0 -
"Up to GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted"
If all working class people voted Labour, they would win by a 400-seat majority.
About 60% of people in Britain regard themselves as working class (source), and that proportion will increase. More will come to realise that their standard of living is likely to be lower than their parents', and many who have homeowning parents and aren't only children are looking at a lifetime shelling out rent to private landlords. Imagine doing that when you're in your 60s - if you live that long. The Tories can't sell the crap about "enterprise" any more. You have to wonder why on earth they are so popular other than because they're supported by most of the media and because Labour are led by a man who is elderly, has an untidy beard, and doesn't speak in a bossy manner. Never mind that the Labour manifesto actually has some substance and contains many policies that would be wildly popular if they could be got across.
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Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?0 -
no seat belongs to anyone, as some Labour Mp's are shortly going to find out.kle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?0 -
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?0 -
Yes, but there are 50,000 Gabbles to the dollar.YBarddCwsc said:
Jeremy is worth a thousand Gabbles.
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FPT - Cyclefree - re Hampstead
Thanks Cyclefree.
First, I must declare an interest. She helped a close friend in her battle with Camden Council (say no more) so she ticks the box with me on the question of 'decent constituency MP'.
As soon as I read your point 2 I was agreeing with it and also your point 6. Most of the rest I agree with too, with some qualifications. Brexit would probably be the biggest issue for me (and I don't have a vote in Hampstead myself) so that would clinch it for me. I agree in principle with what you say about Corbyn and the Labour Party but to me that's a secondary concern. I don't lie awake nites worrying about what's to become of either. That's their concern and for the next five years at least the convulsion inside the red tent will be a sideshow. But on the biggest point of all......
I think 4/1 against Tulip blooming again is about the right price.0 -
That will certainly not be helped by McDonnell's plans to halve the amount parents can leave their children free of inheritance tax to help them advance up the housing ladderCyan said:"Up to GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted"
If all working class people voted Labour, they would win by a 400-seat majority.
About 60% of people in Britain regard themselves as working class (source), and that proportion will increase. More will come to realise that their standard of living is likely to be lower than their parents', and many who have homeowning parents and aren't only children are looking at a lifetime shelling out rent to private landlords. Imagine doing that when you're in your 60s. The Tories can't sell the crap about "enterprise" any more. You have to wonder why on earth they are so popular other than because they're supported by most of the media and because Labour are led by a man who is elderly, has an untidy beard, and doesn't speak with a bossy manner. (Never mind that the Labour manifesto actually has some substance and contains many policies that would be wildly popular if they could be got across).0 -
Six non-blue seats in the South East. One of those is the Speakerkle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
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But what about our dismal Speaker ?SquareRoot said:
no seat belongs to anyone, as some Labour Mp's are shortly going to find out.kle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?0 -
Fine, but what do Labour propose to do about it? The massive increase in house prices happened on their watch. I see no more workable solutions to this from Labour than from the Tories.Cyan said:"Up to GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted"
If all working class people voted Labour, they would win by a 400-seat majority.
About 60% of people in Britain regard themselves as working class (source), and that proportion will increase. More will come to realise that their standard of living is likely to be lower than their parents', and many who have homeowning parents and aren't only children are looking at a lifetime shelling out rent to private landlords. Imagine doing that when you're in your 60s. The Tories can't sell the crap about "enterprise" any more. You have to wonder why on earth they are so popular other than because they're supported by most of the media and because Labour are led by a man who is elderly, has an untidy beard, and doesn't speak with a bossy manner. (Never mind that the Labour manifesto actually has some substance and contains many policies that would be wildly popular if they could be got across).0 -
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
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Yes, it shows that the Tory vote is rock solid and almost a quarter of the Labour vote is only doing so because they think Corbyn has no chance of becoming PMRobD said:
I thought the 0% was more amazing. There are always a few weird people in polls (hard remainer UKIPs, for example).HYUFD said:22% of Labour voters want May to win while 0% of Tory voters want Corbyn to win
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-nearly-one-in-four-labour-voters-actually-want-a-conservative-government-general-election-a3539181.html?amp0 -
Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.0 -
Except May polls above her party, especially with the white working class, Corbyn polls below his. I would not be surprised to see Labour hold a few heavily Remain, middle class seats like Hampstead and Kilburn and Ealing Central and Acton which have relatively small majorities but lose some heavily Leave, working class seats like Mansfield and Dagenham with much bigger Labour majoritiesTheScreamingEagles said:Yup, any seat gains the Tories make at this election will be entirely down to Jeremy Corbyn and not Mrs May (with the exception of Don Valley, where the Tories have an exceptionally brilliant candidate)
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How many to the Altarian dollar?Nigelb said:
Yes, but there are 50,000 Gabbles to the dollar.YBarddCwsc said:
Jeremy is worth a thousand Gabbles.0 -
Polling Disaster Inquiry MkII on its way.Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.0 -
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?
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I'm worried that there might be a shortage of pencils.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?0 -
Their polling models have broken down under the extreme stress of Corbyn.Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.0 -
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
There are still some non-Tory seats in what might broadly be termed the Greater South (SE, SW & E England, excluding London,) but so few of them that I can probably name all of them off the top of my head. Let's give it a go:kle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
Exeter
Bristol West
Bristol East
Bristol South
Southampton Test
Hove
Brighton Pavilion
Oxford East
Slough
Luton North
Luton South
Cambridge
Clacton
Norwich South
North Norfolk
Those in the SE region specifically are Southampton Test, Hove, Brighton Pavilion, Oxford East & Slough. My guess is that the Conservatives would fully expect to convert Southampton Test and Hove in this election, and would hope to topple Slough as well.0 -
Vote early, vote often....TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
what else are second homes for?RobD said:
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
Quite rightScrapheap_as_was said:
what else are second homes for?RobD said:
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they? 0 -
This notion that Labour is doing as well as it got under Miliband in the polls is a complete myth and I don't understand where it is coming from.Black_Rook said:"This is of course all reflected in the polls. Upto GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted but now large swathes of it have disappeared.
From what I can gather everything that was predicted about Corbyn’s leadership in a general election is actually happening. He is proving a massive negative and his supporters are left trying to find even more excuses."
Except that the headline VI now seems to show Labour doing little or no worse than in 2015. ICM excepted, all of the recent surveys now have Labour on 30-32% GB-wide.
All the more reason to suppose that said surveys are, in fact, bollocks.
In 2015 Labour got a bit over 31% of the GB (not UK) vote. Lets round down to 31% to keep it easy.
According to UK Polling Report of the 11 surveys completed in May, Labour has matched the 31% once (ORB) and scored less than 31% in 10 out of 11 surveys. There has not been a single survey where Labour outperformed 31%.
Labour is polling worse now than it achieved under Ed. That is without taking Labour's historical (including 2015) tendency to underperform polls into account.0 -
Jezza starring in Labour's PEB on BBC 1 now.0
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What has Tissue Price ever done to deserve the ludicrously overdone praise on here? I'm sure he is a nice bloke - but so is Nick, yet he and other PBMPs don't receive such sycophantic adulation!0
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RobD said:
Six non-blue seats in the South East. One of those is the Speakerkle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
Damn, ruined the chance for a clean sweep.RobD said:
Six non-blue seats in the South East. One of those is the Speakerkle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
Of the other five, at a guess.
Southampton Test. Tory from 79-97, sub 4000 majority with 5500 UKIP vote to squeeze, but small swing to Lab last time, and no Green. Could fall.
Slough. Tory from 83-97, 7000+ majority with small swing to Labour. No green candidate, UKIP are standing with 6000 votes last time. Probably safe for Lab.
Oxford East. Tory 83-87. 15000 majority, big swing to labour in 2015 as LDs collapsed from strong second (got to sub 1000 in 05). Greens standing (Bernie Sanders' brother), no UKIP but small latter vote. Safe as houses for Labour.
Hove. Tory in 73-97 and 2010-2015. Majority just over 1000, 3000+ UKIp vote to squeeze, no candidate, Green's standing. Probably will fall.
Brighton Pavillion. Tory from 1950-1997, but now the people's republic of Brighton. UKIP standing, no LD. Green win probable.
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Not sure about Hove. I understand that the Labour MP is well liked and has been given a real going over by Corbyn. IF this is true I would expect my other half to vote for Peter Kyle, and fair play. I am told he is very good constituency MPBlack_Rook said:
There are still some non-Tory seats in what might broadly be termed the Greater South (SE, SW & E England, excluding London,) but so few of them that I can probably name all of them off the top of my head. Let's give it a go:kle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
Exeter
Bristol West
Bristol East
Bristol South
Southampton Test
Hove
Brighton Pavilion
Oxford East
Slough
Luton North
Luton South
Cambridge
Clacton
Norwich South
North Norfolk
Those in the SE region specifically are Southampton Test, Hove, Brighton Pavilion, Oxford East & Slough. My guess is that the Conservatives would fully expect to convert Southampton Test and Hove in this election, and would hope to topple Slough as well.0 -
Brexit would have somehow been less ... fun ... if I'd only voted once.RobD said:
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
Well, Nick is a lefty. I don't think I had any clue TP was a Tory, although that might be general cluelessness.bobajobPB said:What has Tissue Price ever done to deserve the ludicrously overdone praise on here? I'm sure he is a nice bloke - but so is Nick, yet he and other PBMPs don't receive such sycophantic adulation!
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You're an absurdly envious and embittered individual, all that's bad about the Labour movement.bobajobPB said:What has Tissue Price ever done to deserve the ludicrously overdone praise on here? I'm sure he is a nice bloke - but so is Nick, yet he and other PBMPs don't receive such sycophantic adulation!
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Can't believe you managed to get 823 votes.GeoffM said:
Brexit would have somehow been less ... fun ... if I'd only voted once.RobD said:
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door0
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My issue exactly. All the anecdotal evidence says low twenties....Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.
So which is wrong - the mass of anecdotes or the polling?0 -
I would give you a blank look if you tried to explain that the acquis was incorporated into British law post-referendum result. The ghastly truth about democracy is that thick proles vote and the only way to mitigate that fact is by reasoning with them, in terms they understand, beforehand, not sneering at them on niche websites a year later. Do a lot of canvassing last June?Cyan said:
Sadly, many don't. Many haven't got a clue about the difference between the European parliament and the Commission. And most view the EU as always having been a foreign power separate from Britain, charging huge fees to impose unwanted rules. They will give you a blank look if you try to explain that the acquis was incorporated into British law post-referendum result, meaning that if it was straight cucumbers before then it will be straight cucumbers outside the union too. I have even met people who think Britain has already left the EU.williamglenn said:No, people have had 44 years of being in the EU. They know how it works.
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Got the ban hammer.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
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Unless the students are going to turn out in big numbers?MarqueeMark said:
My issue exactly. All the anecdotal evidence says low twenties....Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.
So which is wrong - the mass of anecdotes or the polling?0 -
Surely the butler votes by proxy for the true Tory, since they are probably at their holiday home in the Seychelles or hobnobbing with international bankers in Monaco?FrancisUrquhart said:
Vote early, vote often....TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
MI5 were very helpful.RobD said:
Can't believe you managed to get 823 votes.GeoffM said:
Brexit would have somehow been less ... fun ... if I'd only voted once.RobD said:
It is every Tory's duty to vote in two constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
It's the great conundrum of our times. I'm banking on shy Labour voters. But it could just be the polls are wrong.Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.0 -
As I posted earlier 22% of Labour voters want May to win, they are only voting Labour because they think there is no risk of Corbyn entering No 10MarqueeMark said:
My issue exactly. All the anecdotal evidence says low twenties....Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.
So which is wrong - the mass of anecdotes or the polling?0 -
The Labour majority in Hove is very small and thus very likely to be rolled over as part of the national swing. I'm dimly aware of the fact that the local Labour MP there is heartily disliked by the Corbynites, but then again we spent much of the 2015 campaign predicting that a lot of the Lib Dem MPs would buck the trend because of personal brand loyalty votes, and look how that ended up.SquareRoot said:
Not sure about Hove. I understand that the Labour MP is well liked and has been given a real going over by Corbyn. IF this is true I would expect my other half to vote for Peter Kyle, and fair play. I am told he is very good constituency MPBlack_Rook said:
There are still some non-Tory seats in what might broadly be termed the Greater South (SE, SW & E England, excluding London,) but so few of them that I can probably name all of them off the top of my head. Let's give it a go:kle4 said:Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
Exeter
Bristol West
Bristol East
Bristol South
Southampton Test
Hove
Brighton Pavilion
Oxford East
Slough
Luton North
Luton South
Cambridge
Clacton
Norwich South
North Norfolk
Those in the SE region specifically are Southampton Test, Hove, Brighton Pavilion, Oxford East & Slough. My guess is that the Conservatives would fully expect to convert Southampton Test and Hove in this election, and would hope to topple Slough as well.
If Hove doesn't go back to Con then that would definitely be a surprise in my book.0 -
There's your mailshot from the Tories to traditional Labour voters in the first 100 target seats:Stark_Dawning said:Yes, this could be bloody. Labour's old-style supporters know they're not going to win anything with Corbyn, so just use this election to euthanize him and his gang. If that means five years of Theresa with a vast majority then so be it - just get rid and start afresh.
"Corbyn has vowed to stay on if his vote share is above x%. Help save the Labour Party. Vote Conservative this election."0 -
Perhaps I can answer because I know and like them both.bobajobPB said:What has Tissue Price ever done to deserve the ludicrously overdone praise on here? I'm sure he is a nice bloke - but so is Nick, yet he and other PBMPs don't receive such sycophantic adulation!
TP first established his reputation on PB as a highly knowledgeable punter. I think he developed an interest in becoming an MP only fairly recently and even then he didn't become particularly political in his posts.
Nick has always been more political although he too is a shrewd punter. I think he was an MP when he first started posting here.
In short, I think it's Nick's more 'political' presence here that singles him out for more robust (and occasionally rude) treatment.
I was tempted to conclude that perhaps Labour representatives here get a rougher ride generally, but I recall Stewart Jackson MP used to attract a lot of flak when he was a regular poster here so I don't think the rule holds universally.
That help?-1 -
"The butler"? True poverty is defined as only having *one* butler.kle4 said:
Surely the butler votes by proxy for the true Tory, since they are probably at their holiday home in the Seychelles or hobnobbing with international bankers in Monaco?FrancisUrquhart said:
Vote early, vote often....TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
Labour aren't proposing to do as much as they should, but they have committed to reversing certain benefit cuts and to building 100,000 local council and housing association homes per year. In the private sector they say they will make three-year tenancies the norm, rather than tenancies that only run for six months, as at present; and they promise to give private tenants greater rights.Cookie said:
Fine, but what do Labour propose to do about it? The massive increase in house prices happened on their watch. I see no more workable solutions to this from Labour than from the Tories.Cyan said:"Up to GE2015 LAB could largely take the working class vote for granted"
If all working class people voted Labour, they would win by a 400-seat majority.
About 60% of people in Britain regard themselves as working class (source), and that proportion will increase. More will come to realise that their standard of living is likely to be lower than their parents', and many who have homeowning parents and aren't only children are looking at a lifetime shelling out rent to private landlords. Imagine doing that when you're in your 60s. The Tories can't sell the crap about "enterprise" any more. You have to wonder why on earth they are so popular other than because they're supported by most of the media and because Labour are led by a man who is elderly, has an untidy beard, and doesn't speak with a bossy manner. (Never mind that the Labour manifesto actually has some substance and contains many policies that would be wildly popular if they could be got across).
Personally I would prefer nationalising the banks and once that was done, offering people who are living in a mortgaged property the following choice:
option 1) the government exercises its rights under the mortgage deed and takes ownership of the property, writes off the debt and gives the occupants a secure low-rent tenancy; and
option 2) the status quo: people stay in huge debt and keep having to make loan repayments that are larger than the rent would be.
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@kle4 was referring to one's electoral butler. A full-time appointment, whose only duty is to deliver your ballot papers.GeoffM said:
"The butler"? True poverty is defined as only having *one* butler.kle4 said:
Surely the butler votes by proxy for the true Tory, since they are probably at their holiday home in the Seychelles or hobnobbing with international bankers in Monaco?FrancisUrquhart said:
Vote early, vote often....TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?0 -
Well the others will clearly be serving as personal butlers to the rest of the household of course.GeoffM said:
"The butler"? True poverty is defined as only having *one* butler.kle4 said:
Surely the butler votes by proxy for the true Tory, since they are probably at their holiday home in the Seychelles or hobnobbing with international bankers in Monaco?FrancisUrquhart said:
Vote early, vote often....TheScreamingEagles said:
I still need to work out which constituency I'm voting in.RobD said:
MI5 have already deposited the million ballots for the Tories. Just to make it a level playing field.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864118825188556800
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?-1 -
FPT (and thanks to @Peter the Punter for your comments):-
Some thoughts on Hampstead and Kilburn.
Tulip Siddiq was canvassing in my street last week. She came across as engaging and feisty and rather fun. I was impressed by her willingness to debate with me (and others in my household). Were it not for the Corbyn factor - and based on my impressions of her (and what I know of what she has done as an MP) - I might even be tempted to vote for her. I would not be heartbroken if she remained as my MP.
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
I can understand her strategy. It makes sense for her - and it may succeed, though it will be tight.
But - and it is a very big but indeed - every vote for Labour will be taken by Corbyn as a vote for him and will make it less likely that he will go.
So 2. won't happen. And if it does (or even if it doesn't) Labour have proved inept at no. 6.
I simply do not want to risk Corbyn using votes for Labour (even if they are given in spite of him rather than because of him) as a reason for him to stay in power and continue his destruction of the Labour party. So much as I liked Tulip and admired her willingness to fight for her seat (in all the time Glenda Jackson was MP I never sight nor sound of her) I simply cannot bring myself to vote for a Labour party which, collectively, has lost its moral compass - sad as that is for the decent people (and there are some - even though some of them have shown all the toughness of marshmallows) in it.
Corbyn and his particular brand of illiberal leftist politics need to be crushed. This is no time for sentimentality just because Corbyn speaks softly, makes jam and likes gardening. Corbynism is a virus which is destroying a once great and fundamentally decent party. That is a shame for us all, regardless of whether or not we support it.0 -
Anecdotally, far more than 30% of the people I know who have expressed a preference (in my early 40s suburban Mancunian circle) will vote Labour. I know traditionally Labour voters seem rather keener to shout about their preferences, but if polls were done by anecdotes alone, Labour would be romping home. (Some of them will privately express the view that Corbyn is a berk of the first water, but this will not change their voting intention.)MarqueeMark said:
My issue exactly. All the anecdotal evidence says low twenties....Peter_the_Punter said:Mike
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.
So which is wrong - the mass of anecdotes or the polling?0 -
I would really enjoy, I mean REALLY ENJOY quizzing Corbyn on his record. So much material. So many disingenuous statements about his honesty and principles. So little time.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do they really want to go there...like really....I mean like really....foxinsoxuk said:Jeremy from Islington on the dog and bone...
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/864151215063617536
0 -
Yes, Plato is now on Morris's blog/twitter account every day with lots of animal photos and stories. I asked her if she wanted to return to PB but got no answer.RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
She really said all that? Admirably frank. Even though like you, I'd not be able to vote for herr given the circumstances.Cyclefree said:
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
0 -
She should stay away.MikeK said:
Yes, Plato is now on Morris's blog/twitter account every day with lots of animal photos and stories. I asked her if she wanted to return to PB but got no answer.RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
-1 -
Or else?surbiton said:
She should stay away.MikeK said:
Yes, Plato is now on Morris's blog/twitter account every day with lots of animal photos and stories. I asked her if she wanted to return to PB but got no answer.RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
What right-wing tripe did she say to get herself banned?RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
Or he'll tell his mum.RobD said:
Or else?surbiton said:
She should stay away.MikeK said:
Yes, Plato is now on Morris's blog/twitter account every day with lots of animal photos and stories. I asked her if she wanted to return to PB but got no answer.RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
Might have called all lefties ugly motherfu****s? I dunno.murali_s said:
What right-wing tripe did she say to get herself banned?RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
So Jezza has a rally in Leeds Central. You would think that as a member of Leeds Central CLP, a CLP delegate and member of my branch executive I might be invited. Nope.
Perhaps the invitation was only extended to Momentum members, rather than Labour Party members? The location of the event was in the heart of the Momentum stronghold in the city.
I'm sure that Hilary is very grateful to Jezza for coming to the constituency.0 -
Thanks, Cyclefree. As I said below, the Tory campaign line should be "Save the Labour Party. Vote Conservative this election."Cyclefree said:FPT (and thanks to @Peter the Punter for your comments):-
Some thoughts on Hampstead and Kilburn.
Tulip Siddiq was canvassing in my street last week. She came across as engaging and feisty and rather fun. I was impressed by her willingness to debate with me (and others in my household). Were it not for the Corbyn factor - and based on my impressions of her (and what I know of what she has done as an MP) - I might even be tempted to vote for her. I would not be heartbroken if she remained as my MP.
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
I can understand her strategy. It makes sense for her - and it may succeed, though it will be tight.
But - and it is a very big but indeed - every vote for Labour will be taken by Corbyn as a vote for him and will make it less likely that he will go.
So 2. won't happen. And if it does (or even if it doesn't) Labour have proved inept at no. 6.
I simply do not want to risk Corbyn using votes for Labour (even if they are given in spite of him rather than because of him) as a reason for him to stay in power and continue his destruction of the Labour party. So much as I liked Tulip and admired her willingness to fight for her seat (in all the time Glenda Jackson was MP I never sight nor sound of her) I simply cannot bring myself to vote for a Labour party which, collectively, has lost its moral compass - sad as that is for the decent people (and there are some - even though some of them have shown all the toughness of marshmallows) in it.
Corbyn and his particular brand of illiberal leftist politics need to be crushed. This is no time for sentimentality just because Corbyn speaks softly, makes jam and likes gardening. Corbynism is a virus which is destroying a once great and fundamentally decent party. That is a shame for us all, regardless of whether or not we support it.0 -
That Donald Trump would be elected POTUS.murali_s said:
What right-wing tripe did she say to get herself banned?RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
How we all laughed.0 -
In fact, as I keep repeating, Labour's canvassing should be this:Cyclefree said:FPT (and thanks to @Peter the Punter for your comments):-
Some thoughts on Hampstead and Kilburn.
Tulip Siddiq was canvassing in my street last week. She came across as engaging and feisty and rather fun. I was impressed by her willingness to debate with me (and others in my household). Were it not for the Corbyn factor - and based on my impressions of her (and what I know of what she has done as an MP) - I might even be tempted to vote for her. I would not be heartbroken if she remained as my MP.
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
I can understand her strategy. It makes sense for her - and it may succeed, though it will be tight.
But - and it is a very big but indeed - every vote for Labour will be taken by Corbyn as a vote for him and will make it less likely that he will go.
So 2. won't happen. And if it does (or even if it doesn't) Labour have proved inept at no. 6.
I simply do not want to risk Corbyn using votes for Labour (even if they are given in spite of him rather than because of him) as a reason for him to stay in power and continue his destruction of the Labour party. So much as I liked Tulip and admired her willingness to fight for her seat (in all the time Glenda Jackson was MP I never sight nor sound of her) I simply cannot bring myself to vote for a Labour party which, collectively, has lost its moral compass - sad as that is for the decent people (and there are some - even though some of them have shown all the toughness of marshmallows) in it.
Corbyn and his particular brand of illiberal leftist politics need to be crushed. This is no time for sentimentality just because Corbyn speaks softly, makes jam and likes gardening. Corbynism is a virus which is destroying a once great and fundamentally decent party. That is a shame for us all, regardless of whether or not we support it.
1. We are NOT going to win.
2. For the good of democracy, we should not have a landslide
3. How have I done personally as your MP ?
Tulip's arguments are very cogent.
0 -
A vote for any labour candidate, no matter what private views they may hold, will be seen as an endorsement of Corbyn. It wasn't the nominating of Corbyn (1) that was the mistake; it was his subsequent victory that has brought Labour to the abyss's edge.kle4 said:
She really said all that? Admirably frank. Even though like you, I'd not be able to vote for herr given the circumstances.Cyclefree said:
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
0 -
Don't forget Fiona Mactaggart is retiring. That may affect the Labour vote as she is personally popular (although I'll admit I'm not sure why).kle4 said:Slough. Tory from 83-97, 7000+ majority with small swing to Labour. No green candidate, UKIP are standing with 6000 votes last time. Probably safe for Lab.
0 -
A bit unfair to get a ban for accuracy.RobD said:
Might have called all lefties ugly motherfu****s? I dunno.murali_s said:
What right-wing tripe did she say to get herself banned?RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
0 -
She didn't predict that - she predicted a narrow Hillary victoryIshmael_Z said:
That Donald Trump would be elected POTUS.murali_s said:
What right-wing tripe did she say to get herself banned?RobD said:
Still on the naughty step. Not sure if it is permanent.RobC said:Anyone seen Plato? I share no brief for her politics but she did provide a useful commentary on Eastbourne in 2015. LD's might hope to regain that seat or more likely Lewes next door
How we all laughed.0
