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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn – Labour’s election gift to Mrs. May and the Tor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn – Labour’s election gift to Mrs. May and the Tories
Canvassing in S London Labour seat and every 2nd house it was Jeremy. Never heard such hostility in 4 decades.
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-nearly-one-in-four-labour-voters-actually-want-a-conservative-government-general-election-a3539181.html?amp
From what I can gather everything that was predicted about Corbyn’s leadership in a general election is actually happening. He is proving a massive negative and his supporters are left trying to find even more excuses."
Except that the headline VI now seems to show Labour doing little or no worse than in 2015. ICM excepted, all of the recent surveys now have Labour on 30-32% GB-wide.
All the more reason to suppose that said surveys are, in fact, bollocks.
pommesozzies...http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/39924107
I'm genuinely worried the Tories might beat him!
Farron's seat is more likely to fall. Clegg is pretty safe, I think.
Nothing sums up the EU better than this shambling, self-centred figure.
If we were looking for a microcosm of all that is wrong with British Europhilia, who better than this chancer, this ex-Minister for Europe -- jailed for his fraudulent invoices from the “European Policy Institute”.
Jeremy is worth a thousand Gabbles.
If all working class people voted Labour, they would win by a 400-seat majority.
About 60% of people in Britain regard themselves as working class (source), and that proportion will increase. More will come to realise that their standard of living is likely to be lower than their parents', and many who have homeowning parents and aren't only children are looking at a lifetime shelling out rent to private landlords. Imagine doing that when you're in your 60s - if you live that long. The Tories can't sell the crap about "enterprise" any more. You have to wonder why on earth they are so popular other than because they're supported by most of the media and because Labour are led by a man who is elderly, has an untidy beard, and doesn't speak in a bossy manner. Never mind that the Labour manifesto actually has some substance and contains many policies that would be wildly popular if they could be got across.
Wait, there are seats in the southeast that don't already belong to the Tories?
A reminder from the Twittersphere that voting in this General Election is about to get underway. I wonder what percentage of total votes will actually be cast before June 8th?
Thanks Cyclefree.
First, I must declare an interest. She helped a close friend in her battle with Camden Council (say no more) so she ticks the box with me on the question of 'decent constituency MP'.
As soon as I read your point 2 I was agreeing with it and also your point 6. Most of the rest I agree with too, with some qualifications. Brexit would probably be the biggest issue for me (and I don't have a vote in Hampstead myself) so that would clinch it for me. I agree in principle with what you say about Corbyn and the Labour Party but to me that's a secondary concern. I don't lie awake nites worrying about what's to become of either. That's their concern and for the next five years at least the convulsion inside the red tent will be a sideshow. But on the biggest point of all......
I think 4/1 against Tulip blooming again is about the right price.
Everything in your thread piece rings true to me. I just have one query.
If these voters are typical, how are Labour recording 30% or so in the polls? They shouldn't be getting anywhere near that level of support.
Curious.
Nobody will mind if I vote in two constituencies will they?
Exeter
Bristol West
Bristol East
Bristol South
Southampton Test
Hove
Brighton Pavilion
Oxford East
Slough
Luton North
Luton South
Cambridge
Clacton
Norwich South
North Norfolk
Those in the SE region specifically are Southampton Test, Hove, Brighton Pavilion, Oxford East & Slough. My guess is that the Conservatives would fully expect to convert Southampton Test and Hove in this election, and would hope to topple Slough as well.
In 2015 Labour got a bit over 31% of the GB (not UK) vote. Lets round down to 31% to keep it easy.
According to UK Polling Report of the 11 surveys completed in May, Labour has matched the 31% once (ORB) and scored less than 31% in 10 out of 11 surveys. There has not been a single survey where Labour outperformed 31%.
Labour is polling worse now than it achieved under Ed. That is without taking Labour's historical (including 2015) tendency to underperform polls into account.
Of the other five, at a guess.
Southampton Test. Tory from 79-97, sub 4000 majority with 5500 UKIP vote to squeeze, but small swing to Lab last time, and no Green. Could fall.
Slough. Tory from 83-97, 7000+ majority with small swing to Labour. No green candidate, UKIP are standing with 6000 votes last time. Probably safe for Lab.
Oxford East. Tory 83-87. 15000 majority, big swing to labour in 2015 as LDs collapsed from strong second (got to sub 1000 in 05). Greens standing (Bernie Sanders' brother), no UKIP but small latter vote. Safe as houses for Labour.
Hove. Tory in 73-97 and 2010-2015. Majority just over 1000, 3000+ UKIp vote to squeeze, no candidate, Green's standing. Probably will fall.
Brighton Pavillion. Tory from 1950-1997, but now the people's republic of Brighton. UKIP standing, no LD. Green win probable.
So which is wrong - the mass of anecdotes or the polling?
If Hove doesn't go back to Con then that would definitely be a surprise in my book.
"Corbyn has vowed to stay on if his vote share is above x%. Help save the Labour Party. Vote Conservative this election."
TP first established his reputation on PB as a highly knowledgeable punter. I think he developed an interest in becoming an MP only fairly recently and even then he didn't become particularly political in his posts.
Nick has always been more political although he too is a shrewd punter. I think he was an MP when he first started posting here.
In short, I think it's Nick's more 'political' presence here that singles him out for more robust (and occasionally rude) treatment.
I was tempted to conclude that perhaps Labour representatives here get a rougher ride generally, but I recall Stewart Jackson MP used to attract a lot of flak when he was a regular poster here so I don't think the rule holds universally.
That help?
Personally I would prefer nationalising the banks and once that was done, offering people who are living in a mortgaged property the following choice:
option 1) the government exercises its rights under the mortgage deed and takes ownership of the property, writes off the debt and gives the occupants a secure low-rent tenancy; and
option 2) the status quo: people stay in huge debt and keep having to make loan repayments that are larger than the rent would be.
Some thoughts on Hampstead and Kilburn.
Tulip Siddiq was canvassing in my street last week. She came across as engaging and feisty and rather fun. I was impressed by her willingness to debate with me (and others in my household). Were it not for the Corbyn factor - and based on my impressions of her (and what I know of what she has done as an MP) - I might even be tempted to vote for her. I would not be heartbroken if she remained as my MP.
Her line is this:-
1. Nominating Corbyn was a mistake.
2. He will be gone after the election.
3. Cooper, Starmer or Jarvis will be the likely candidates.
4. May will win.
5. Important that she does not get such an enormous win that there is no effective opposition.
6. If Hampstead remains Labour she, Tulip, will be one of the MPs providing such opposition, particularly in relation to Brexit.
7. I should think of the seat rather than Corbyn.
I can understand her strategy. It makes sense for her - and it may succeed, though it will be tight.
But - and it is a very big but indeed - every vote for Labour will be taken by Corbyn as a vote for him and will make it less likely that he will go.
So 2. won't happen. And if it does (or even if it doesn't) Labour have proved inept at no. 6.
I simply do not want to risk Corbyn using votes for Labour (even if they are given in spite of him rather than because of him) as a reason for him to stay in power and continue his destruction of the Labour party. So much as I liked Tulip and admired her willingness to fight for her seat (in all the time Glenda Jackson was MP I never sight nor sound of her) I simply cannot bring myself to vote for a Labour party which, collectively, has lost its moral compass - sad as that is for the decent people (and there are some - even though some of them have shown all the toughness of marshmallows) in it.
Corbyn and his particular brand of illiberal leftist politics need to be crushed. This is no time for sentimentality just because Corbyn speaks softly, makes jam and likes gardening. Corbynism is a virus which is destroying a once great and fundamentally decent party. That is a shame for us all, regardless of whether or not we support it.
Perhaps the invitation was only extended to Momentum members, rather than Labour Party members? The location of the event was in the heart of the Momentum stronghold in the city.
I'm sure that Hilary is very grateful to Jezza for coming to the constituency.
How we all laughed.
1. We are NOT going to win.
2. For the good of democracy, we should not have a landslide
3. How have I done personally as your MP ?
Tulip's arguments are very cogent.