politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polling and GE2017 betting round-up
Comments
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Portugal ahead in the Jury Vote0
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Too reasonable for Corbyn's Labour?bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
...
I have had several meetings with the Energy Minister who is responsible for shale to discuss my concerns and spent much of Easter travelling around North Yorkshire, Lancashire and Cheshire looking at the sites where fracking is due to take place as well as some of the existing oil and gas wells that are dotted around the country.
I know how upset and worried some people are about fracking especially about health, safety, house prices and security. From visiting sites, speaking to engineers and public health experts, I have not heard, seen or read anything that convinces me that shale exploration is any more or less safe than conventional oil and gas drilling.
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is a technique that has been used since the late 1940s to extract conventional oil and gas. We have had thousands of onshore oil and gas wells drilled over the decades (some of which have been fracked) and currently have over 200 wells around the country pumping quietly away with little or no concern to local residents.
There will, without a doubt, be significant disruption during the building phase of a shale site during the clearing, rig building and initial fracking phases, and there will be more than usual heavy lorry movements carrying water and aggregate. This is the part of the development that I have most concerns about and is the subject that I am in close communication with INEOS on.
But spreading scare stories for which there is no reliable evidence about increases in cancer rates and low-birth-weight babies is unforgiveable. I have not seen credible evidence to
If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it.
Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate
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I can't begin to describe just how toast Engel is.bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidate
Certain Tory fain IMO0 -
1 point from Greece0
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0
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Have to appreciate someone not attempting to roll back on their views for the sake of electoral advantage - which can be tried sometimes very laughably.bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
e0 -
Isn't it gratifying that the whole of Europe communicates in English.0
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6 from Estonia0
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I wonder if Juncker is watchingSandyRentool said:Isn't it gratifying that the whole of Europe communicates in English.
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Good luck with that :-)SandyRentool said:Financial news. Apparently the new £1 coins were designed so that you can use a spanner to prise them out of a Yorkshireman's hand.
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Interesting.RobD said:
Interesting, thanks for the link.bigjohnowls said:
On a similar topic, yesterday we were talking about how the UKIP vote share fall in different councils was related to the Tory vote share rise. Here's a quick table I put together showing it - https://goo.gl/l4Ye3f
Ratio of 100% is where the Con rise exactly matches the UKIP fall. 50% means the rise in Con was only equal to half of the fall of UKIP.
The Conservatives bigger gains tending to be in the Midlands and North.
Nottinghamshire is the exception but I think there were some Conservative backed Independents there.0 -
You would welcome fracking in your back yard?Prodicus said:
Too reasonable for Corbyn's Labour?bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
...
I have had several meetings with the Energy Minister who is responsible for shale to discuss my concerns and spent much of Easter travelling around North Yorkshire, Lancashire and Cheshire looking at the sites where fracking is due to take place as well as some of the existing oil and gas wells that are dotted around the country.
I know how upset and worried some people are about fracking especially about health, safety, house prices and security. From visiting sites, speaking to engineers and public health experts, I have not heard, seen or read anything that convinces me that shale exploration is any more or less safe than conventional oil and gas drilling.
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is a technique that has been used since the late 1940s to extract conventional oil and gas. We have had thousands of onshore oil and gas wells drilled over the decades (some of which have been fracked) and currently have over 200 wells around the country pumping quietly away with little or no concern to local residents.
There will, without a doubt, be significant disruption during the building phase of a shale site during the clearing, rig building and initial fracking phases, and there will be more than usual heavy lorry movements carrying water and aggregate. This is the part of the development that I have most concerns about and is the subject that I am in close communication with INEOS on.
But spreading scare stories for which there is no reliable evidence about increases in cancer rates and low-birth-weight babies is unforgiveable. I have not seen credible evidence to
If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it.
Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate0 -
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Twitter will really be something to behold on June 8th.kle4 said:
I hope he keeps it together well enough to post his despair should the Tories win a huge majority. I don't even want them to have a huge majority as such, but some people act in a manner where I feel enjoying their grief at a political event is ok.The_Apocalypse said:
Cognitive dissonance is alive and well.kle4 said:
Takes all sorts.The_Apocalypse said:I'm laughing at 5% of Ukippers being in the hard Remain column.
Also having looked at Eoin Clarke's twitter, he's so far gone it's unreal.
You know, twitter really had me side-eyeing aspects of the Left in this country. Totally delusional - they even complain about people wanting the Labour leader to be electable.0 -
4 points from Armenia0
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She was/is a member of "Eckington against Fracking" though...kle4 said:
Have to appreciate someone not attempting to roll back on their views for the sake of electoral advantage - which can be tried sometimes very laughably.bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
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I'd welcome fracking anywhere, oh you said fracking.bigjohnowls said:You would welcome fracking in your back yard?
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Yup. Let's get free of Mid East oil.bigjohnowls said:
You would welcome fracking in your back yard?Prodicus said:
Too reasonable for Corbyn's Labour?bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
...
I have had several meetings with the Energy Minister who is responsible for shale to discuss my concerns and spent much of Easter travelling around North Yorkshire, Lancashire and Cheshire looking at the sites where fracking is due to take place as well as some of the existing oil and gas wells that are dotted around the country.
...
There will, without a doubt, be significant disruption during the building phase of a shale site during the clearing, rig building and initial fracking phases, and there will be more than usual heavy lorry movements carrying water and aggregate. This is the part of the development that I have most concerns about and is the subject that I am in close communication with INEOS on.
But spreading scare stories for which there is no reliable evidence about increases in cancer rates and low-birth-weight babies is unforgiveable. I have not seen credible evidence to
If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it.
Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate0 -
we better get 12 points from th aussie's...wait what am I saying..they'll give us 00
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I think, having seen entire campaigns from anti-frakkers, that they are masters of persistence and energy, but also of cherry picking details and overdoing the risks, to the point that if applications appeared in my area, I would now find it harder to object, even though I would not want it to happen, which is their driving force, because not wanting it is not enough on its own.bigjohnowls said:
You would welcome fracking in your back yard?Prodicus said:
Too reasonable for Corbyn's Labour?bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in idate
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Strange intermission
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Australia were 109 points ahead after jury vote last year and got turned over.0
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Definitely. It's the way forward now that Scotland has run out.bigjohnowls said:
You would welcome fracking in your back yard?Prodicus said:
Too reasonable for Corbyn's Labour?bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
...
I have had several meetings with the Energy Minister who is responsible for shale to discuss my concerns and spent much of Easter travelling around North Yorkshire, Lancashire and Cheshire looking at the sites where fracking is due to take place as well as some of the existing oil and gas wells that are dotted around the country.
I know how upset and worried some people are about fracking especially about health, safety, house prices and security. From visiting sites, speaking to engineers and public health experts, I have not heard, seen or read anything that convinces me that shale exploration is any more or less safe than conventional oil and gas drilling.
Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is a technique that has been used since the late 1940s to extract conventional oil and gas. We have had thousands of onshore oil and gas wells drilled over the decades (some of which have been fracked) and currently have over 200 wells around the country pumping quietly away with little or no concern to local residents.
There will, without a doubt, be significant disruption during the building phase of a shale site during the clearing, rig building and initial fracking phases, and there will be more than usual heavy lorry movements carrying water and aggregate. This is the part of the development that I have most concerns about and is the subject that I am in close communication with INEOS on.
But spreading scare stories for which there is no reliable evidence about increases in cancer rates and low-birth-weight babies is unforgiveable. I have not seen credible evidence to
If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it.
Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate0 -
Their song is so rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:
There is literally no accounting for taste. Sweden's song was the best.
Meanwhile Germany are doing badly (again).
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DiggingTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd welcome fracking anywhere, oh you said fracking.bigjohnowls said:You would welcome fracking in your back yard?
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Yes. There is quite a substantial oilfield in West Sussex that has been exploited for a fair while now and it is so unobtrusive not many people even know that it is there. Whatever disruption is caused during the construction phase cannot be any worse than the builders lorries that currently blight our lives.bigjohnowls said:
You would welcome fracking in your back yard?0 -
12 points from the Aussies 0
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AUSTRALIA YAAAAS!0
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Crossover in the first week of June is now guaranteed. My freude will be exquisitly schade.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Australia! Commonwealth bros!0
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First 12 points, next a free trade deal!0
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Yay for Australia!0
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And people say the anglosphere is a dumb concept.Sunil_Prasannan said:12 points from the Aussies
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We need more commonwealth realms in Eurovision.
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6 from Germany0
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I fear this was their gift to us to let us down on the trade deal front. Sorry, it'll take awhile, here's twelve points in the meantime.SandyRentool said:First 12 points, next a free trade deal!
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The Anglosphere strikes back.Gallowgate said:Australia! Commonwealth bros!
It's ok the USA joins in about now applies overwhelming force to this European mess gives us 500 points and we all go home.0 -
I hope they redo that 'exiting eurovision' poll from earlier.
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This passes for entertainment at a club near me
https://www.facebook.com/csalfield/videos/vb.502825765/10154405980505766/?type=2&theater¬if_t=live_video¬if_id=1494712772624692
Thank God for Eurovision0 -
5 from Holland0
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Americans would never get this kind of Eurotrash culture in the way the Aussies do.welshowl said:
The Anglosphere strikes back.Gallowgate said:Australia! Commonwealth bros!
It's ok the USA joins in about now applies overwhelming force to this European mess gives us 500 points and we all go home.0 -
NO POINTS from Ireland0
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Definitely impose a hard border!0
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I have finished your spreadsheet by calculating the ratio of the totals. It is 78.74%, very similar to most people's assumption of 75% or 80%.RobD said:
Interesting, thanks for the link.bigjohnowls said:
On a similar topic, yesterday we were talking about how the UKIP vote share fall in different councils was related to the Tory vote share rise. Here's a quick table I put together showing it - https://goo.gl/l4Ye3f
Ratio of 100% is where the Con rise exactly matches the UKIP fall. 50% means the rise in Con was only equal to half of the fall of UKIP.
However, as with Simpson's paradox, quoted by Fisher, the net effect for the Tories is not much different if UKIP does not put up a candidate.0 -
Hard border it is.0
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Sensible them.williamglenn said:
Americans would never get this kind of Eurotrash culture in the way the Aussies do.welshowl said:
The Anglosphere strikes back.Gallowgate said:Australia! Commonwealth bros!
It's ok the USA joins in about now applies overwhelming force to this European mess gives us 500 points and we all go home.0 -
5 from Cyprus0
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but would elect Trump.....strange country.williamglenn said:
Americans would never get this kind of Eurotrash culture in the way the Aussies do.welshowl said:
The Anglosphere strikes back.Gallowgate said:Australia! Commonwealth bros!
It's ok the USA joins in about now applies overwhelming force to this European mess gives us 500 points and we all go home.0 -
Oh well its a lose lose then.Pulpstar said:
She was/is a member of "Eckington against Fracking" though...kle4 said:
Have to appreciate someone not attempting to roll back on their views for the sake of electoral advantage - which can be tried sometimes very laughably.bigjohnowls said:
Suicide note from NE Derbyshire Lab candidatebigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular.
These are my own personal views which I have arrived at after a great deal of research. These views are not shared by the Labour Party nor local Labour councillors.
e
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The devils! Playing hardball are they?Sunil_Prasannan said:NO POINTS from Ireland
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I have every faith the people of Europe will stick two fingers up to these elite juries and vote en masse for bulgaria rather than that boring Portuguese song.0
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Bound to be a few shy Tories in that audience no matter where it is, got ~ 28% in blimmin' Clay Cross South at the locals xDbigjohnowls said:This passes for entertainment at a club near me
https://www.facebook.com/csalfield/videos/vb.502825765/10154405980505766/?type=2&theater¬if_t=live_video¬if_id=1494712772624692
Thank God for Eurovision0 -
3 from Hungary0
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10 from SLOVENIA!0
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2 from Belgium!!0
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Made a small lay of Portugal at 1.16 (£3.02/19.02).paulyork64 said:I have every faith the people of Europe will stick two fingers up to these elite juries and vote en masse for bulgaria rather than that boring Portuguese song.
As you point out its far from over. Bold to pile money on the favourite at this stage with the voting system0 -
5 from Poland0
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Jesus...the points scoring is almost as boring as watching ladies cricket (not that I have watched it mind)0
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5 from the Czechs0
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99 points for UK from the Juries0
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This points system is rubbish.0
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Ukraine turned over a bigger lead to win last year0
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This is taking longer than an STV count.0
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111 including phone vote0
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The dagos are still last, which is good.
Zero would have been better but never mind.0 -
Bloody good for her. Restores my faith in British politics.bigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular...
[snip]
...If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it. Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate
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So which country have the Russian hackers decided should win?0
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Portugal win!0
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England's oldest ally wins.
Still think they were shite.0 -
Don't understand Eurovision at all0
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Oh well. Bulgaria and Moldova e/w might keep me in the black.0
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Well at least the UK is in the same time zone as the winner.0
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£25 profit from in-play trading. I'll take that.0
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Prior to Brexit, it was the only acceptable way to laugh at Europeans.Gallowgate said:Don't understand Eurovision at all
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12 points for the UK from the whole of Europe in the televote is a joke.0
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Team building by shared humiliation, tactic as old as time.Gallowgate said:Don't understand Eurovision at all
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A victory for music? Seriously fuck off.0
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Which was the last country to be reigning euro footy champions and Eurovision winners at same time? (This isn't a quiz. I have no clue!)0
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Just a shame that human beings have proven yet again that we are the worst kind of destructive, self serving polluting vermin....you couldn't make up how profoundly damaging we are to all other species on our planetviewcode said:
Bloody good for her. Restores my faith in British politics.bigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular...
[snip]
...If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it. Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate
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And when he's finished fucking off he can start again with the fucking off.TheScreamingEagles said:A victory for music? Seriously fuck off.
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Think about how Germany and Spain must feel.Artist said:12 points from the whole of Europe in the televote is a joke.
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Portugal? Pfft. Don't really understand. Rubbish song.0
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And back to politics...0
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Both my sober bets won. My 4 tonight failed. Twas always the way.....0
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Greece 2005paulyork64 said:Which was the last country to be reigning euro footy champions and Eurovision winners at same time? (This isn't a quiz. I have no clue!)
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Up to you if you choose to describe yourself as destructive self serving polluting vermin but you can leave the "we" out of it.tyson said:
Just a shame that human beings have proven yet again that we are the worst kind of destructive, self serving polluting vermin....you couldn't make up how profoundly damaging we are to all other species on our planetviewcode said:
Bloody good for her. Restores my faith in British politics.bigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular...
[snip]
...If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it. Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate0 -
My 13 year old son seems to have placed a £3 on bet on Betfair on Bulgaria.
Who do I call ?0 -
That was quick. I thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Greece 2005paulyork64 said:Which was the last country to be reigning euro footy champions and Eurovision winners at same time? (This isn't a quiz. I have no clue!)
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It sounds like a Christmas song......numbertwelve said:Portugal? Pfft. Don't really understand. Rubbish song.
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So Juncker was right - English is diminishing in importance. Next year everyone will sing in their own languages.0
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Oh come on, I don't think Eurovision is that bad.tyson said:
Just a shame that human beings have proven yet again that we are the worst kind of destructive, self serving polluting vermin....you couldn't make up how profoundly damaging we are to all other species on our planetviewcode said:
Bloody good for her. Restores my faith in British politics.bigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular...
[snip]
...If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it. Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate
And hey, most species are self serving, we're just the best at it. Very good survival trait.
But we also have consciences, unlike most of them. Morality is for those animals with the freedom to exercise it and still thrive. We'll get there. No time for misandry.0 -
Sore Loser-manTheScreamingEagles said:A victory for music? Seriously fuck off.
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I see myself more as a bad boy than vermin, personally.GeoffM said:
Up to you if you choose to describe yourself as destructive self serving polluting vermin but you can leave the "we" out of it.tyson said:
Just a shame that human beings have proven yet again that we are the worst kind of destructive, self serving polluting vermin....you couldn't make up how profoundly damaging we are to all other species on our planetviewcode said:
Bloody good for her. Restores my faith in British politics.bigjohnowls said:With the calling of the snap General Election, I wanted to try and set out in detail my position on fracking as a whole and the INEOS application for an exploratory well at Bramleymoor Farm in Marsh Lane in particular...
[snip]
...If it creates a whole new industry with good jobs, if it is good for Derbyshire, then I support it. Our next step has to be setting up a strong Community Liaison Group to negotiate with INEOS
If shale exploration is going to happen, let’s make sure that we get the most out of it.
NATASCHA ENGEL
Labour Party Parliamentary candidate0 -
Poor AngelaThe_Apocalypse said:
Think about how Germany and Spain must feel.Artist said:12 points from the whole of Europe in the televote is a joke.
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Other countries to have been concurrently Eurovision and the European Championships.
West Germany 1982
Spain 1968 (but that was only for weeks) as they the European Championships in 19640
