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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polling and GE2017 betting round-up
Other GE2017 findings from the poll
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Mrs May's lacklustre campaign, especially about fox hunting is responsible for the Tory lead being slashed.
Last ComRes poll seemed like an outlier.
re: Wales - Yougov were close to accurate at the last election.
re: Lib Dems - where will they go? On Opinium's best leader choice they break 2:1 for May over Corbyn, so if they move.....
re: Labour's 32 - they are miles behind among 35+ and Opinium have substantially upweighted young blue collar workers because they presumably don't have many signed up to respond to political polls. It's a very dubious number because these voters are hard to reach. The Tories and Labour are close to level among young professionals.
The idea that young white van man is voting Corbyn is hysterical.
Still not buying Labour on > 30%, and Tories on nearly 50%.
Definitely a trend in the polls. Still not convinced regardless.
Betting PostConservative leads continue to slide from the ridiculously enormous ones a couple of weeks ago.
Anyway, I posted this a few minutes ago on the old thread. The pre-race ramble includes literally two bets:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html
What appears to have changed is Labour and Tories at levels that don't seem to tally with the responses to best leader (i.e. Corbyn is panned) or realistic (Tory getting nearly 50% of the vote).
That is why it was leaked!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Graphical_summary
Leader favourability ratings do point towards approx 17/18% gap, so the 47-30 there would fit.
It May changed once the manifestoes are printed and published; then again it May not.
Or am I reading your ramble incorrectly?
Bottas, Verstappen and Ricciardo?
As an aside, there's only tomorrow's race and Monaco (in a fortnight) before polling day.
*IF* that occurs then it could be more evidence that Labour is doing better, or that herding is underway, or possibly both. Take your pick...
The afternoon thread at 2pm
The evening thread at 8pm
Of course these timings could change due to someone doing a guest thread, or events dear boy.
I cant see what labour have got left in the tank. The tories haven't even started their campaign
The conservative manifesto next week will see the party ramp up its campaign with serious onslaughts on labour's tax and spend policies and no doubt a widening of the atttack on Corbyn's lack of Brexit and defence policies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39907481
Con .......... 381
Labour ..... 188
LibDem ....... 5
UKIP ........... 0
Green ......... 0
Is now the time to SELL the Tories with Spreadex at 397 seats, or to BUY Labour with Sporting or Spreadex at 162 seats? As the chap on Big Brother is apt to say ..... You decide!
(I placed my spread bets yesterday)
Labour have had virtually two weeks of hogging the news headlines. The Tories have said virtually nothing..
And Labour have gained three percentage points...
I expect the Tories to start ads/headlines etc 2-3 weeks before 8th June - so 18th May roughly..
Labour may gain some more by then - say another percentage point...
The question is: how good will the Tory response be? Is Mr Crosby worth the £ millions he is paid? Or will Labour reduce the lead to "only" 11%..?
But the Tories need a solid manifesto, they need more funding for schools and hospitals at least.
Instead they have had a bit of a battering, but the media coverage will now pass / move on, and actually gives the Tories a chance to say look response was ok, could have been better, here is a plan and just imagine what Captain Calamity and Team Twat would have done.
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.
https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/863073898048479234/photo/1
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election
I don't know why they bother, can they just not all have the leader pose in front of a green screen at the start of the campaign. Saves on show leather too.
Ross Anderson asks, "If large numbers of NHS organisations failed to act on a critical notice from Microsoft two months ago, then whose fault is that?"
Has any journalist had the intelligence to wonder whether private-sector health organisations, such as private hospitals, run the same software, and if so, whether they acted on the notice from Microsoft or not?
Or maybe the very existence of private healthcare and the difference between it and state healthcare isn't something the Tories (or Labour, it seems) wish to point up?
That will be a comfort to the Tories. If the polling does turn out to be accurate - and I have my reservations about all these Labour numbers on 30%+, given the data coming out of the key supplementary questions - then there's not much further for Labour to climb without taking votes directly from the Conservatives, which itself seems exceedingly implausible given the huge political gulf between the positions of the two major parties.
A final result of something like Con 46%, Lab 32% would imply a thrashing rather than an annihilation of Labour - something not entirely unlike the 1987 result, albeit with the added complication of the SNP vote (i.e. the Tories may not get quite so many seats, but Labour should do worse than the Tories.) It also implies that a significant Liberal Democrat resurgence won't happen.
And I still think they're over-counting Labour and under-counting the Liberal Democrats.
Also, I'd almost certainly choke to death on a glass of (decent) whisky if that happened, so win-win. You'll miss me when I'm gone.
Hitman looked like a very good game, but the weird way it was rolled out can't have helped sales.
Edited extra bit: anyway, I'm off.