politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land
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Expect an avalanche of over excited Labour stories tomorrow morning then I guess. Unless its a good number of prosecutions, I cannot see it moving the polls. I mean, if it is a handful that is still disgraceful, but some may still be quite technical in nature despite alleged criminal intent, and it will confirm that in something like 325 seats there was effectively no issue. While charging, say, 15 would still mean a similar amount there was no issue, as a number it is harder to dismiss.0
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I really like that analysis. Thnx.chrisb said:For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:
Con: 401
Lab: 163
LD: 15
SNP: 48
If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:
Con: 367-432
Lab: 138-191
LD: 7-30
SNP: 41-53
Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.0 -
I wouldn't want to be trying to sell UKIP in Vauxhall to be honest... would prob have more luck selling a Vauxhall to a kipper!Pulpstar said:
Go for it, you'll have lots of fun seeing your name up at the count.isam said:
UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
D'oh they're not opposing Hoey
On a serious point will they find the 5k for you ?
I think candidates might be having to fund themselves
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http://www.pictaram.com/user/dolly_theis/1470707003/1445136149785838367_1470707003Casino_Royale said:
I don't know what you're talking about.kle4 said:
Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
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Isn't every episode of The One Show sweet, but screamingly dull?Fat_Steve said:Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
The Telegraph review is headed
"Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
I imagine they'll be pleased with that.0 -
I agree with you and @RobD and @kle, it is a very odd way to carry on. Doesn't help the CPS in any way.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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How is what they are doing any different from the police officers who were tipping off the newspapers, and which led to prosecutions?RobD said:
They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Looks about right to me, which I suppose means that I don't see a lot of value.paulyork64 said:
I really like that analysis. Thnx.chrisb said:For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:
Con: 401
Lab: 163
LD: 15
SNP: 48
If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:
Con: 367-432
Lab: 138-191
LD: 7-30
SNP: 41-53
Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.0 -
Indeed, they do seem to be somewhat lacking in professional ethics, constantly briefing journalists about decisions which have yet to be announced.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Or perhaps he's just been told to attend a press conference tomorrow.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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The one when Gary Barlow came over all peculiar the other day was a bit unusualMarqueeMark said:
Isn't every episode of The One Show sweet, but screamingly dull?Fat_Steve said:Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
The Telegraph review is headed
"Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
I imagine they'll be pleased with that.0 -
The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.0
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Pretty sweet photo of the Mays there.Scott_P said:0 -
O/T
Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).0 -
Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
Who is that?
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The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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Would it be good for the site to arrange a pre-election event in a pub in Westminster, and invite some of the political press/bloggers for a proper electoral discussion?Fat_Steve said:
Good reminder Ave _ It - ThanksGIN1138 said:
If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time!Ave_it said:Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
And yes, I'm well thanks.
I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.0 -
Ave_it said:
Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
Who is that?
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Lots about the IRA on Thursday then from the Tories I wonder?kle4 said:Expect an avalanche of over excited Labour stories tomorrow morning then I guess. Unless its a good number of prosecutions, I cannot see it moving the polls. I mean, if it is a handful that is still disgraceful, but some may still be quite technical in nature despite alleged criminal intent, and it will confirm that in something like 325 seats there was effectively no issue. While charging, say, 15 would still mean a similar amount there was no issue, as a number it is harder to dismiss.
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Very good news for Con re CPS that announcement is tomorrow.
If they announce prosecutions it's far better that the bad publicity is tomorrow and then has plenty of time to exaporate over the next few weeks.
Manifesto launches next week will inevitably become the focus.
And we don't know how long the media storm will be anyway, given the sub judice rules.0 -
I'm a little surprised that they're going for it, if this is correct. The CPS had better be very sure of their stuff.RobD said:
If there are any charges to be brought then I don't think it will be a catastrophe for the Tories (May herself is not, insofar as I am aware, in any way implicated.) But it will be highly embarrassing, of course. On the plus side, it gets the feeding frenzy out of the way before either the manifesto launch or the big TV set-pieces.0 -
That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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Thing is, the centre isn't low tax.Black_Rook said:
I seem to recall that The Spectator dubbed May "the most left-wing Tory PM in 40 years," or words to that effect. She's certainly old enough to have been involved in Conservative activism before Margaret Thatcher became leader.Pong said:
I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.
A clever game of poker, if so.
Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.
I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.
But there is the potential...
If the manifesto transpired to advocate a 21st Century relaunch of one-nation Toryism, then this would not be especially surprising.
It's not triple lock - or at least not for everyone.
It's not buy-to-let, high house prices and NIMBY. It's probably not even pro-greenbelt.
It's not small state.
It's not a lot of things that traditional tories consider fundamental conservative values.0 -
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What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Peston's story.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/
Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.0 -
Demographically not middle class enough I think.Danny565 said:
That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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Oh, I should mention my "prepare for a prosecution" statement was based on no insider info whatsoever. I mentioned it given the weight of evidence that has appeared on Guido etc.Black_Rook said:
I'm a little surprised that they're going for it, if this is correct. The CPS had better be very sure of their stuff.RobD said:
If there are any charges to be brought then I don't think it will be a catastrophe for the Tories (May herself is not, insofar as I am aware, in any way implicated.) But it will be highly embarrassing, of course. On the plus side, it gets the feeding frenzy out of the way before either the manifesto launch or the big TV set-pieces.0 -
Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.0
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Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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"Presumably a version of "that was the previous regime, we do things differently"."Bufton_Tufton said:Peston's story.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/
Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.
Except if May's chief of staff is implicated....0 -
I'd guess that 95% of the public have bugger all idea about the CPS Tory story. C4 News is watched by how many people?
The public, as a general rule, think poorly of politicians and political parties.0 -
Point taken, but why do they need to brief tonight to journalists that they'll be a statement tomorrow at all?DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?Scott_P said:0 -
Yeah 4-9 Lab is huge.Quincel said:
Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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Hope Disco Dolly takes some Leave votes from Hoey, enough to tip it our way.Ave_it said:
Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
Who is that?0 -
Yes, that's the only way I can see this becoming a big deal - if May's own close aide is implicated, questioning May's "squeaky-clean" image with the public.RobD said:
"Presumably a version of "that was the previous regime, we do things differently"."Bufton_Tufton said:Peston's story.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/
Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.
Except if May's chief of staff is implicated....
If it's all just about no-mark MPs or their even more no-mark agents, then I don't think people will care.0 -
Not if this is right, in fact it sounds the opposite.Alistair said:
Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?Scott_P said:Bufton_Tufton said:Peston's story.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/
Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.0 -
How different to Bermondsey?Pulpstar said:
Demographically not middle class enough I think.Danny565 said:
That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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Thank you0 -
I presume you're talking about this?bobajobPB said:Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.
Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.
That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.0 -
RepublicanTory said:
His remarks on the military situation meanwhile are simply laughable. France has a wholly different outlook as it is considered even following its decision to resume a part in NATO's military command as a half-hearted ally by the Americans, while it is through NATO that Britain actually uses its forces. On paper, these are smaller than the French equivalent, but they have a much greater reach - for example, France has five medium sized jets of various types for long distance haulage, one of which is a tanker, while Britain has eight Globemaster. The disparity is so great that when the French intervened in Mali a while back we actually had to lend them two C17s to do the transport work!
So I think this was a poor article from a biased source by someone so shocked and embittered by his failure that he's refusing to confront the reasons for it and is instead constructing a comforting narrative of how it was those bloody elites that stole it all. It reminds me very much of the letters of Lord Robert Cecil, Cecil of Chelwood, as the League of Nations showed how utterly ineffectual it had become by the late 1930s.
That was a refreshingly insightful and well informed critique
This is one of the reasons why PB keeps me coming back-regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the above it is clear, precise and thought provoking.
Thank you
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Sounds like a good place for a meet up!AndyJS said:O/T
Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).0 -
No idea but a 4.x swing is well doable. A 29.15% swing is for the birds.foxinsoxuk said:
How different to Bermondsey?Pulpstar said:
Demographically not middle class enough I think.Danny565 said:
That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?Black_Rook said:
I presume you're talking about this?bobajobPB said:Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.
Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.
That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?0 -
Is Mr Harman in trouble ??another_richard said:
I wonder how much time Dromey spends in his constituency.ThreeQuidder said:
Dromey says he's proud of it...isam said:
"sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."FrancisUrquhart said:When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?0 -
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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I don't know. So the journalists will know when to report it? Because someone asked? When I was Fleet Street-adjacent decades ago, there'd be long lists of scheduled announcements, but this might not be one. Surely what is new here is twitter. In the past, Peston would have reported the news, not tweeted in advance that the news will be happening tomorrow.kle4 said:
Point taken, but why do they need to brief tonight to journalists that they'll be a statement tomorrow at all?DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Well, Ed lost Alan Johnson as his first pick for shadow Chancellor, his brother was in a huff about losing to him, and so he had to turn to Ed Balls...Fat_Steve said:
I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.isam said:
If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v differentTheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239
That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.
So imagine my surprise when I see Yvette Cooper touted on here as Labour's saviour. Oh dear.0 -
They've screwed it all up royally I think.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I said hello, Dolly,Casino_Royale said:Ave_it said:
Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
Who is that?
Well, hello, Dolly
It's so nice to have you back where you belong
You're lookin' swell, Dolly
I can tell, Dolly
You're still glowin'
You're still crowin'
You're still goin' strong
I feel that room swayin'
While the band's playin'
One of your old favourite songs from way back when
So take her wrap, fellas
Find her an empty lap, fellas
Dolly'll never go away again0 -
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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She has no chance in Vauxhall. She'll lose her deposit.Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
(And you might have lost yours as well!
) 0 -
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No comments until the decision I think.DecrepitJohnL said:
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Tough job imoisam said:0 -
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Always f***** tomorrow though, isn't it?Black_Rook said:
I presume you're talking about this?bobajobPB said:Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.
Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.
That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.0 -
Black Rook
Many thanks - much appreciated. I'd love to read the rest of the story.0 -
We had all that shit with Keir Starmer creating his own profile. I detest that sort of thing. We don't want to go American. They can put out an announcement to the media WITHOUT personalising it.DecrepitJohnL said:
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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I wonder, if he hangs on and the LDs can indeed improve in this election to rise again, if the 'LD Survivors' will enter party legend one day. Once there was a time when the party was reduced to a mere taxicab of MPs, and then the Tory surge of May the Terrible rose and everyone said it was the end...but the LD survivors stayed form, they withstood the tide, and now, under PM Tim Farron Jnr, we now rule these lands.isam said:0 -
How is it secret justice?DecrepitJohnL said:
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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NoGIN1138 said:Looks like fox hunting is on it's way back then?
It will be a fee vote and many Cons are anti foxhunting
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If the Cons get a landslide then they will be a much more Urban party than they are now.0 -
This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.JonnyJimmy said:Who wants to make foxes a protected species?
And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?
Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
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So would rump labour have to elect a leader from its own ranks before cooper and sharmer rejoined? If so doesnt that rule them out of next permanent Labour leader contention in this scenario?Black_Rook said:
I presume you're talking about this?bobajobPB said:Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.
Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.
That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.0 -
It would be long if it was the LDs who were 2nd on 20%, but 4th? As it happens I can vaguely see the Tories winning it if the LDs split Labour's vote - but doubtful. 16/1 though isn't a crazy covering bet (albeit not one I'm going for).Pulpstar said:
Yeah 4-9 Lab is huge.Quincel said:
Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.Pulpstar said:
The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.williamglenn said:The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
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A simple press release with the decision, and a reminder to journalists of the sub judice laws if anyone is charged. Simple.RobD said:
No comments until the decision I think.DecrepitJohnL said:
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
As it is, they are perilously close to denying a fair trial with all the leaking going on.0 -
My Con + UKIP * 66% Vs LDs + 3pp has him losing by about 6pp.isam said:
His only hope is if Remain-y Labour voters go tactical, while Leavers stay at home. I'd want 4-1 to back him.0 -
Don't be silly. The bringing of charges is a matter of public record and can never be secret, and should be the subject of a factual press release. Anything above and beyond that serves no other purpose than to increase the importance of the CPS in its own eyes, and prejudice potential jurors. The posturing of that twat Starmer in the Huhne affair was particularly repulsive, and designed to get him personal airtime for political gain.DecrepitJohnL said:
Secret justice? Is that really what we want?SquareRoot said:
Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Adrian Trett0
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Every Labour candidate to be asked "If I vote or you, can you confirm you will not leave the Labour Party?" Lots of candidates shoe-gazing at hustings....DavidL said:100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?
And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?0 -
No. Voters electing anti Corbyn moderates know for whom they are voting. I expect this story to gather pace at 1600hrs on Thursday when nominations close and rebel Labour candidates are locked in.DavidL said:
100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?Black_Rook said:
I presume you're talking about this?bobajobPB said:Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.
Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.
That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?0 -
is his real name. His first half of his double barrelled name is his husband's0
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Does anyone still drink vermouth on its own?Mortimer said:
Sounds like a good place for a meet up!AndyJS said:O/T
Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).0 -
I was canvassing in Tom Brake's constituency. On the big housing estates that did vote his way, they are 75% Brexit in referendum. So, it is wide open.0
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I doubt she will have much trouble GOTVScott_P said:0 -
I take it peeps have seen this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/0 -
That is simply not true. It is (or rather was) both.NickPalmer said:
This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.JonnyJimmy said:Who wants to make foxes a protected species?
And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?
Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
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The other thing about Vauxhall is that every Lib Dem campaigner near that area ought to be working Bermondsey.0
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Never a dull day with the Trump administration.Scott_P said:0 -
Are you still paid by anti-hunting groups?NickPalmer said:
This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.JonnyJimmy said:Who wants to make foxes a protected species?
And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?
Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
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You should declare an interest here.0 -
Ex-MP Simon Danczuk faces police rape quiz after woman told police he attacked her in Westminster
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4489934/Ex-MP-Simon-Danczuk-faces-police-rape-quiz.html0 -
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Who with ?paulyork64 said:0 -
NOwilliamglenn said:
It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.Casino_Royale said:I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.
NO
NO
and again
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Indeed, although I’m not convinced we’ll see it happen, too many remember the last split.Floater said:I take it peeps have seen this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/0 -
Trump fires FBI's Comey0
