I bet he was Afro Carriebean man just as Terror acts are likely to be Muslim men. We are paying the price for TMay's politically correct reform of stop and search. Just dissappointed The Met went along with it (but not suprised).
Kim Jong May vetoed Bill Bratton, went all PC on stop and search and also we had the stupid coalition decision to relax detention orders for terrorists.
But then again in 4 weeks we could have Diane Abbott as Home Secretary.....
I know Izzard is a big Labour fan, and I've enjoyed comedy of his before (I recall him in a non comedic part on The Good Wife once too), but he pops up so often in their campaigning am I underestimating the level of his appeal? I just don't get why they use him so much.
LOL. His profile has changed a bit since yesterday!
Indeed.
Wot a plonker.
Yeah, what a weird story. Can't imagine Ladbrokes are too happy about being dragged into a hoax about children betting either.
It appears to be the work of some PR person who in their own words..
“I wanted to try to create a story: obnoxious Brexiteer backs Le Pen, taunts liberals while endearing himself to [Andy] Wigmore, [David] Vance, [Arron] Banks etc (I hoped to get public support from them), loses bet and then throws a fit,” he said.
I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
They would be called voters, or even fellow citizens. Even if they never read the Guardian they are worthy and their votes count every bit as much.
Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality probable. Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
Time does make fools of us all. And that was factoring in large SNP gains.
That low Lab figure is pretty spot on though, as is the high Tory figure, so well covered.
I know Izzard is a big Labour fan, and I've enjoyed comedy of his before (I recall him in a non comedic part on The Good Wife once too), but he pops up so often in their campaigning am I underestimating the level of his appeal? I just don't get why they use him so much.
I think we have discussed this before that he and Labour thinks he has appeal to the youngsters...but the problem is he hasn't been a mainstream big time comedian for ages now and hardly any 18-21 years olds really know he is...he is more vaguely known as that bloke who does the charity marathons.
I bet he was Afro Caribbean man just as Terror acts are likely to be Muslim men. We are paying the price for TMay's politically correct reform of stop and search. Just dissappointed The Met went along with it (but not suprised).
Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
Ms Hoey told the Standard: "I was not willing to tweet a photo with anyone wearing a rosette because this was an apolitical event on behalf of the children and I did not want those partisan elements included.”
Ok, how about:
1) Photoshopping out the rosette 2) Blame it on an aide - that's what they are there for 3) Using a different photo.
She's rattled because she knows she's going to lose her seat.
Asking someone to stand aside when they were above you last time has to be a non starter, even if you are moving forward and they are moving backward. It's why the Greens begging people for pacts never gets far, as they ask too much along those lines.
When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
Yeah, I'm a bit like that. I cannot deny as a unionist I hope there is some, but it is hypocritical of me as I am not a fan of the practice being so open and near official, rather than something that just happens at a low level.
I think openly calling for tactical votes to "stop the SNP" is quite likely to backfire in many areas. We already have SCON & SLAB both calling for tactical voting in the likes of East Renfrewshire.
SCON risk falling into SLAB's trap of taking voters completely for granted, each day brings yet more expectance raising headlines - their lack of ground resources mean that much of their campaign is being fought through the media - which is currently giving Ruth a pretty easy ride.
LOL. His profile has changed a bit since yesterday!
Indeed.
Wot a plonker.
Yeah, what a weird story. Can't imagine Ladbrokes are too happy about being dragged into a hoax about children betting either.
Apparently it was done to embarrass Brexiteers.
By impersonating a real person, and baiting a company about an issue they find somewhat sensitive, purely with the intention of getting media coverage. I can think of a few words to describe someone who does that, but Mike wouldn't want to see them here.
I bet he was Afro Caribbean man just as Terror acts are likely to be Muslim men. We are paying the price for TMay's politically correct reform of stop and search. Just dissappointed The Met went along with it (but not suprised).
St Anns Road has a mental health facility in it, if memory serves.
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
They would be called voters, or even fellow citizens. Even if they never read the Guardian they are worthy and their votes count every bit as much.
Fruitcakes and Loonies and closet rascists i believe they were called.
Yeah, I'm a bit like that. I cannot deny as a unionist I hope there is some, but it is hypocritical of me as I am not a fan of the practice being so open and near official, rather than something that just happens at a low level.
I think openly calling for tactical votes to "stop the SNP" is quite likely to backfire in many areas. We already have SCON & SLAB both calling for tactical voting in the likes of East Renfrewshire.
SCON risk falling into SLAB's trap of taking voters completely for granted, each day brings yet more expectance raising headlines - their lack of ground resources mean that much of their campaign is being fought through the media - which is currently giving Ruth a pretty easy ride.
Expectations management has been terrible, they appear to be deciding to shoot big and try to ride the excitement and hope it pays off instead, which is a valid strategy. Getting even to 5 SCON MP would be a great result for them, albeit now far less than hoped as a result of the strategy.
And as you point out, with such expectation there comes the potential confusion over tactical voting - I know few were expecting any SLAB gains anyway, but there are presumably places that is the best option for a tactically minded unionist, many places in fact according to the spectator list, but SCON supporters may well be thinking either they are still best placed to win so no tactical shifting, or perhaps thinking they can win a few in the south say, and eclipse Labour in the other places to make a run for next time.
LOL. His profile has changed a bit since yesterday!
Indeed.
Wot a plonker.
Yeah, what a weird story. Can't imagine Ladbrokes are too happy about being dragged into a hoax about children betting either.
Apparently it was done to embarrass Brexiteers.
By impersonating a real person, and baiting a company about an issue they find somewhat sensitive, purely with the intention of getting media coverage. I can think of a few words to describe someone who does that, but Mike wouldn't want to see them here.
Indeed - I was wondering where the line is between what that chap did and identity theft.
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
He's a modeller and psephologist. Everyone loves to make a General Election calculator, I know I do. Not sure why you feel it is "unwise". I think Labour is too high at 30% in the Gower though !
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
His model is based on opinion polls as part of the input data. If the polls are garbage....
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
He's a modeller and psephologist. Everyone loves to make a General Election calculator, I know I do.
Does the man who shall not be named but has done amazingly well during the past number of election have a spreadsheet up?
Not really. The article could be headed "Too Poor, Too Small, Too Thick."
It is very interesting, though. Its arguments represent the core consensus of establishment thinking within the UK since the Suez crisis.
The most charitable message I can take from it is this: don't think that Brexit will mean life for an independent UK will all be a bed of roses, and be realistic about how much global influence the UK will have given its size, and the realpolitik of the modern 21stC world.
But phrases like "the City of London was a backwater" before we joined the EU, and that "Britain is heading for humiliation", are just plain silly.
As well as Eddie Izzard, Maxine Peake and "Hayley" from Coronation Street have been "involved" in the Lab campaign today.
#Luvvies4Labour
does celebrity endorsement really attract votes? As far as I can tell it puts off as many (if not more) than it gains.
I don't think it did any favours for Tories or Labour last time. Martin Freeman going big with the ad only to find he is a massive hypocrite looked awful, and of course although Gary Barlow kept a low profile he was pointed to as a Tory supporter who likes to minimize his tax bill.
I think it is one thing having them ramp up a crowd, but putting them front and centre in yours ads...they better squeak clean...and even then I think a lot of people feel like it is luuvies lecturing them.
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
He's a modeller and psephologist. Everyone loves to make a General Election calculator, I know I do. Not sure why you feel it is "unwise". I think Labour is too high at 30% in the Gower though !
I think you may be on the only website your statement about "everyone" is true...
Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
Ms Hoey told the Standard: "I was not willing to tweet a photo with anyone wearing a rosette because this was an apolitical event on behalf of the children and I did not want those partisan elements included.”
Ok, how about:
1) Photoshopping out the rosette 2) Blame it on an aide - that's what they are there for 3) Using a different photo.
She's rattled because she knows she's going to lose her seat.
To whom? 13000 majority, small UKIP vote to squeeze, seat always been Labour.
Hell of a name from the LD candidate in 2015 I see, Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett. Having worked in customer service I'd be nervous at guessing the pronunciation there.
Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
Ms Hoey told the Standard: "I was not willing to tweet a photo with anyone wearing a rosette because this was an apolitical event on behalf of the children and I did not want those partisan elements included.”
Ok, how about:
1) Photoshopping out the rosette 2) Blame it on an aide - that's what they are there for 3) Using a different photo.
She's rattled because she knows she's going to lose her seat.
To whom? 13000 majority, small UKIP vote to squeeze, seat always been Labour.
Hell of a name from the LD candidate in 2015 I see, Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett. Having worked in customer service I'd be nervous at guessing the pronunciation there.
The Lib Dems. Robert gave me 10/1 on it happening.
As well as Eddie Izzard, Maxine Peake and "Hayley" from Coronation Street have been "involved" in the Lab campaign today.
#Luvvies4Labour
does celebrity endorsement really attract votes? As far as I can tell it puts off as many (if not more) than it gains.
I don't think it did any favours for Tories or Labour last time. Martin Freeman going big with the ad only to find he is a massive hypocrite looked awful, and of course although Gary Barlow kept a low profile he was pointed to as a Tory supporter who likes to minimize his tax bill.
I think it is one thing having them ramp up a crowd, but putting them front and centre in yours ads...they better squeak clean...and even then I think a lot of people feel like it is luuvies lecturing them.
Freeman would have been better if the script they'd written had not made him look like such a plonker perhaps.
It is curious how people whose job is to make us believe they think and feel things that are not true, can struggle to look natural when they do believe it though. Maybe actors in particular are problematic that way - they could passionately and convincingly tell me which way to vote, and mean it, but since I know they are very conscious of how they portray that feeling even if it is true, I'm already sceptical.
A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.
Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.
Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
I feel Hanratty is unwise to be making such forecasts at this stage. He was miles off in 2015 in the context of an election everybody knew was coming. This election has caught most people by surprise and opinion will take a bit longer to settle down.
He's a modeller and psephologist. Everyone loves to make a General Election calculator, I know I do. Not sure why you feel it is "unwise". I think Labour is too high at 30% in the Gower though !
I don't recall David Butler, Bob Mackenzie or Anthony King doing it!
I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
They would be called voters, or even fellow citizens. Even if they never read the Guardian they are worthy and their votes count every bit as much.
This is probably a bit too cruel, but I couldn't resist.
No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.
His remarks on the military situation meanwhile are simply laughable. France has a wholly different outlook as it is considered even following its decision to resume a part in NATO's military command as a half-hearted ally by the Americans, while it is through NATO that Britain actually uses its forces. On paper, these are smaller than the French equivalent, but they have a much greater reach - for example, France has five medium sized jets of various types for long distance haulage, one of which is a tanker, while Britain has eight Globemaster. The disparity is so great that when the French intervened in Mali a while back we actually had to lend them two C17s to do the transport work!
So I think this was a poor article from a biased source by someone so shocked and embittered by his failure that he's refusing to confront the reasons for it and is instead constructing a comforting narrative of how it was those bloody elites that stole it all. It reminds me very much of the letters of Lord Robert Cecil, Cecil of Chelwood, as the League of Nations showed how utterly ineffectual it had become by the late 1930s.
It takes arguments to extremes.
You can certainly argue the UK will have *less* influence within the EU post-Brexit, but it will not have "none". Even Turkey has some, for example on security and migration control. The UK will remain engaged, a key security partner and involved in solving pan-European issues bilaterally, and through the Council of Europe.
Likewise, on being a bridge to Europe, physical proximity, being a global trading hub (London), and being English speaking under a (hopefully) different regulatory regime helps. So the bridge, you could argue, is diminished but it isn't extinguished.
On the credit side, you have a potential rebalancing in foreign and security policy, a more flexible trade policy, a more globally equitable immigration policy, and the opportunity to design a different regulatory regime.
The best comparison for me for the medium-long term level of political control an independent UK would have, as well as the level of global influence, would be to take what Australia, Canada and New Zealand have, combined.
A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.
Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.
No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.
She sounds like a right old charmer.
Her quoted statements seems a bit more logical than as quoted by Guido earlier - I don't see reference to her not remembering writing the tweets, which was not credible (even if you don't recall specifics, you'd remember being a vulgar racist or making racist jokes, I know I remember making plenty of racist jokes), so just the typical ' I have grown up and matured, x does not represent my views now' stuff, which is all fine, and hopefully true.
Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
Eh, apart from 1997 the Map always looks pretty darn blue most of the time.
Predicting possible (not necessarily probable) LD wins in Bristol West (!), Bermondsey, Cambridge, Cambridge, Bath and Hornsey and Wood Green. The probability of losing Southport, Leeds North West and North Norfolk is amazingly high - imagine surviving the 2015 cull only to lose out 2 years later. Low probability of losing Westmoreland, Carsalton and Orkney - but still, for any prediction to have 6 potential losses out of 9, yeesh.
Possible Con losses in Bath, Gower, Vale of Clwys and Dumfriesshire (!). Tories more likely to gain in Fife than LD, LDs more likely to get Caithness?
England is typically blue, but GB is a lot more blue with most of Wales and chunks of Scotland being blue too.
As well as Eddie Izzard, Maxine Peake and "Hayley" from Coronation Street have been "involved" in the Lab campaign today.
#Luvvies4Labour
does celebrity endorsement really attract votes? As far as I can tell it puts off as many (if not more) than it gains.
I don't think it did any favours for Tories or Labour last time. Martin Freeman going big with the ad only to find he is a massive hypocrite looked awful, and of course although Gary Barlow kept a low profile he was pointed to as a Tory supporter who likes to minimize his tax bill.
I think it is one thing having them ramp up a crowd, but putting them front and centre in yours ads...they better squeak clean...and even then I think a lot of people feel like it is luuvies lecturing them.
Freeman would have been better if the script they'd written had not made him look like such a plonker perhaps.
It is curious how people whose job is to make us believe they think and feel things that are not true, can struggle to look natural when they do believe it though. Maybe actors in particular are problematic that way - they could passionately and convincingly tell me which way to vote, and mean it, but since I know they are very conscious of how they portray that feeling even if it is true, I'm already sceptical.
That Freeman ad was atrocious. I think celebrity support for the left is problematic because of the 'lecturing luvvies' image it gives off. There's also a danger that on the right it enforces perceptions of privilege. Really, I think parties should shy away from the idea altogether.
Wait, Left Unity are still a thing and are standing in Vauxhall according to wiki? (along with women's equality and pirate, the lucky bastards, I never get any such parties. Sadly no Whigs so far like last time). I thought they'd been shuttered now Loach is so enamored of Corbyn. The only party that did worse was LibertyGB.
Browsing the fascinating 'Parties opposed to austerity' wiki list (it's a sea of communism there), one such party is an interesting one, offering something new. Or so I presume:
When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
"sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
As well as Eddie Izzard, Maxine Peake and "Hayley" from Coronation Street have been "involved" in the Lab campaign today.
#Luvvies4Labour
does celebrity endorsement really attract votes? As far as I can tell it puts off as many (if not more) than it gains.
I don't think it did any favours for Tories or Labour last time. Martin Freeman going big with the ad only to find he is a massive hypocrite looked awful, and of course although Gary Barlow kept a low profile he was pointed to as a Tory supporter who likes to minimize his tax bill.
I think it is one thing having them ramp up a crowd, but putting them front and centre in yours ads...they better squeak clean...and even then I think a lot of people feel like it is luuvies lecturing them.
Freeman would have been better if the script they'd written had not made him look like such a plonker perhaps.
It is curious how people whose job is to make us believe they think and feel things that are not true, can struggle to look natural when they do believe it though. Maybe actors in particular are problematic that way - they could passionately and convincingly tell me which way to vote, and mean it, but since I know they are very conscious of how they portray that feeling even if it is true, I'm already sceptical.
That Freeman ad was atrocious.
We think that, but it must be because we were not raised to be decent, like he was, which is why he votes the way he does.
Foxhunting a thing of the past! Will not be happening
What CON need to focus on is bringing welfare under control!
As a man with his ear to the ground, do you think there's much chance of them doing that? If they forced through major reforms to in work benefits it might make allowing freedom of movement to continue to be much less controversial.
Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
Ms Hoey told the Standard: "I was not willing to tweet a photo with anyone wearing a rosette because this was an apolitical event on behalf of the children and I did not want those partisan elements included.”
Ok, how about:
1) Photoshopping out the rosette 2) Blame it on an aide - that's what they are there for 3) Using a different photo.
She's rattled because she knows she's going to lose her seat.
To whom? 13000 majority, small UKIP vote to squeeze, seat always been Labour.
Hell of a name from the LD candidate in 2015 I see, Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett. Having worked in customer service I'd be nervous at guessing the pronunciation there.
The Lib Dems. Robert gave me 10/1 on it happening.
Robert will win that bet.
People are letting their emotional hostility towards Kate Hoey overcome their reason.
When will people learn.....the internet never forgets...and of course all together now too many tweets make you a....
As I may have said before, David Cameron's maxim about Twitter will be taught in politics classes long after Twitter has disappeared! He was, of course, completely right.
Foxhunting a thing of the past! Will not be happening
What CON need to focus on is bringing welfare under control!
As a man with his ear to the ground, do you think there's much chance of them doing that? If they forced through major reforms to in work benefits it might make allowing freedom of movement to continue to be much less controversial.
William - we weren't very good at it in 2010 to 2015 (thanks LD) or 2015 to 2017!
Hopefully if we get a reasonable majority we might be able to do something about the ludicrous tax credits (ie handouts) which we give to the feckless to pay for their children.
I have no problem with freedom of movement - most of the immigrants which have come in recent years have come in to work, make money and pay taxes.
When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
"sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
Sounds very different to Leicester, where people of such different ethnicities seem to get along fine.
Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
The above article is full of nonsense. Take this for example:
"The country skilfully used its ties to the US and its EU membership to maximise its value to both sides; the EU helped Britain to punch above its weight."
Maximising your value to other actors in no way demonstrates influence. The only worthwhile evidence of influence is concrete achievements in the national interest; the French cementing agricultural subsidies for their small farmers, the Germans establishing a single currency that is structurally undervalued to support their exporters, all continental countries in securing Britain's fishing waters (80% of the EU total) as 'common' property.
We never had much influence in the EU, and yet were the second-largest contributor. Thank goodness we'll soon be out!
One can take or leave the 'Special Relationship', depending upon one's view of the US.
Comments
But then again in 4 weeks we could have Diane Abbott as Home Secretary.....
“I wanted to try to create a story: obnoxious Brexiteer backs Le Pen, taunts liberals while endearing himself to [Andy] Wigmore, [David] Vance, [Arron] Banks etc (I hoped to get public support from them), loses bet and then throws a fit,” he said.
Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
Time does make fools of us all. And that was factoring in large SNP gains.
That low Lab figure is pretty spot on though, as is the high Tory figure, so well covered.
Tories 326 seats tops,
Labour 231 seats bottom,
SNP 54 seats tops,
Lib Dems 19 seats bottom.
Actual 330, 232, 56, 8
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
SCON risk falling into SLAB's trap of taking voters completely for granted, each day brings yet more expectance raising headlines - their lack of ground resources mean that much of their campaign is being fought through the media - which is currently giving Ruth a pretty easy ride.
#Luvvies4Labour
And as you point out, with such expectation there comes the potential confusion over tactical voting - I know few were expecting any SLAB gains anyway, but there are presumably places that is the best option for a tactically minded unionist, many places in fact according to the spectator list, but SCON supporters may well be thinking either they are still best placed to win so no tactical shifting, or perhaps thinking they can win a few in the south say, and eclipse Labour in the other places to make a run for next time.
https://twitter.com/welshlabour/status/862023953753276416
The most charitable message I can take from it is this: don't think that Brexit will mean life for an independent UK will all be a bed of roses, and be realistic about how much global influence the UK will have given its size, and the realpolitik of the modern 21stC world.
But phrases like "the City of London was a backwater" before we joined the EU, and that "Britain is heading for humiliation", are just plain silly.
I think it is one thing having them ramp up a crowd, but putting them front and centre in yours ads...they better squeak clean...and even then I think a lot of people feel like it is luuvies lecturing them.
Hell of a name from the LD candidate in 2015 I see, Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett. Having worked in customer service I'd be nervous at guessing the pronunciation there.
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It is curious how people whose job is to make us believe they think and feel things that are not true, can struggle to look natural when they do believe it though. Maybe actors in particular are problematic that way - they could passionately and convincingly tell me which way to vote, and mean it, but since I know they are very conscious of how they portray that feeling even if it is true, I'm already sceptical.
Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4488920/Labour-student-Bethany-Barker-quits-racist-tweets.html
No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.
She sounds like a right old charmer.
"We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/862034401714069504
You can certainly argue the UK will have *less* influence within the EU post-Brexit, but it will not have "none". Even Turkey has some, for example on security and migration control. The UK will remain engaged, a key security partner and involved in solving pan-European issues bilaterally, and through the Council of Europe.
Likewise, on being a bridge to Europe, physical proximity, being a global trading hub (London), and being English speaking under a (hopefully) different regulatory regime helps. So the bridge, you could argue, is diminished but it isn't extinguished.
On the credit side, you have a potential rebalancing in foreign and security policy, a more flexible trade policy, a more globally equitable immigration policy, and the opportunity to design a different regulatory regime.
The best comparison for me for the medium-long term level of political control an independent UK would have, as well as the level of global influence, would be to take what Australia, Canada and New Zealand have, combined.
I've never heard so many clichés and soundbites trotted out in such a short time
And yet... she sounded absolutely authentic. Very few others could get away with it.
Browsing the fascinating 'Parties opposed to austerity' wiki list (it's a sea of communism there), one such party is an interesting one, offering something new. Or so I presume:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Something_New_(political_party)
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/862037646402613248
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
What CON need to focus on is bringing welfare under control!
Con 46.8% (+9.0)
Lab 28.5% (-2.7)
LD 9.8% (+1.7)
Ukip 6.6% (-6.3)
Green 3.2% (-0.6)
Other 5.1% (-1.1)
Changes are relative to GE 2015
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/PC_seat_losses.html
If they do could they put some money down of the appropriate Betfair Exchange page.
People are letting their emotional hostility towards Kate Hoey overcome their reason.
Does anybody what to guess what 5 Of the 2015 UKIP vote would have to switch to the conservative 2015 vote to beet that? 71.97%
I'm not saying its going to happen, amongst other things because this election is preserved to in the bag turnout may be down.
But it might, not shore if there is a market for it.
I hear the ruling SNP/Labour coalition on Edinburgh City Council may no longer be in power...
Talks are underway
Hopefully if we get a reasonable majority we might be able to do something about the ludicrous tax credits (ie handouts) which we give to the feckless to pay for their children.
I have no problem with freedom of movement - most of the immigrants which have come in recent years have come in to work, make money and pay taxes.
But, it significantly predates our EU membership.
I still find it barely credible to see that Jeremy is leading the party in a GE campaign!