politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land
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Ave It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
The Telegraph review is headed
"Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
I imagine they'll be pleased with that.0 -
Hope you win!Tissue_Price said:
I shall have words with my agent. Not the most felicitous phrasingMarkHopkins said:Tissue_Price said:Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.
Thanks again.
"We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"
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viz.AlastairMeeks said:
I asked for and was provided with a Venn diagram.MarkHopkins said:Tissue_Price said:Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.
Thanks again.
"We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8620301920884121600 -
Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20
At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.0 -
I am not saying that you should! Every little titbit might be of some interest.TheScreamingEagles said:
So tell me why I should take a small unweighted sub-sample over a properly weighted poll?justin124 said:I see that on the TNS crossbreaks Labour is ahead in Wales. Very small numbers though.
Yougov's polls for last year's Welsh Assembly elections did underestimate Labour somewhat.It was a bit of a surprise that they came so close to retaining an overall majority.0 -
The most shocking link of the Hanretty forecast
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/UKIP_seat_gains.html0 -
I presume Jezza will be given the opportunity to do the same, and I am going to guess Mrs Corbyn won't be appearing. We will be treated to half an hour of jam making tips and what to look for when inspecting man-hole covers?Fat_Steve said:Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
The Telegraph review is headed
"Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
I imagine they'll be pleased with that.0 -
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Brighton Pavillion forecast seems contingent on LDs standing, but I'd heard they were not - LAB Gain?0
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Dromey says he's proud of it...isam said:
"sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."FrancisUrquhart said:When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?0 -
The only good SCon is a well hung one..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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He should talk about reading books to small children - that photo of him doing so is the most charming image I have seen of him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume Jezza will be given the opportunity to do the same, and I am going to guess Mrs Corbyn won't be appearing. We will be treated to half an hour of jam making tips and what to look for when inspecting man-hole covers?Fat_Steve said:Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
The Telegraph review is headed
"Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
I imagine they'll be pleased with that.0 -
Reminiscent of David Howell's wonderfully badly expressed phrase on Howe's Conflict of Loyalty speech:Tissue_Price said:
I shall have words with my agent. Not the most felicitous phrasingMarkHopkins said:Tissue_Price said:Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...
Don Valley Update
Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.
A number of you have asked how to help or donate...
Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley
If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.
For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.
Thanks again.
"We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"
'That speech must have affected every thinking Conservative MP and many others as well.'0 -
If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v differentTheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/FT/status/8620422241120952390 -
With a majority Jnr could only dream of...TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
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I wonder how much time Dromey spends in his constituency.ThreeQuidder said:
Dromey says he's proud of it...isam said:
"sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."FrancisUrquhart said:When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”
Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing
Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).
Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
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I was only kidding - a lot of the candidates in my area seem to confer to stereotype, at least with Lab/Con. Union official, teacher, disability campaigner vs army, MOD or businessman.chestnut said:0 -
Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.0
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I wonder if the ban has simply been in place too long, now.GIN1138 said:Looks like fox hunting is on it's way back then?
I suspect a qualification of the ban, rather than outright repeal. And even that would depend on a very large Tory majority.0 -
Oh, hello.Scott_P said:0 -
Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?Casino_Royale said:
Oh, hello.Scott_P said:0 -
Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,justin124 said:
I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classesRobD said:
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.
I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.0 -
A probability of less than 5% that it fails, I assume...Pulpstar said:Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20
At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.0 -
Bath rated the most likely Con loss, what an embarrassment it would be to lose on the night of a landslide - apparently no Lab had that experience in 1997.0
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Suffice to say the Tory folks of Dunblane & Bridge of Allan are somewhat perplexed by this news !!Theuniondivvie said:
The only good SCon is a well hung one..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:
Con: 401
Lab: 163
LD: 15
SNP: 48
If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:
Con: 367-432
Lab: 138-191
LD: 7-30
SNP: 41-53
Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.0 -
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I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.Scott_P said:
Neither the Tories nor the LibDems are putting much effort in... They have other fish to frykle4 said:Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.
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Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?0
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She looks and sounds like an everyday woman. And I mean that as a compliment.TOPPING said:Just watching Tezza and hubby on the telly.
I've never heard so many clichés and soundbites trotted out in such a short time
And yet... she sounded absolutely authentic. Very few others could get away with it.
That's her real strength.0 -
Surely to God a spoof?FrancisUrquhart said:
Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?Casino_Royale said:
Oh, hello.Scott_P said:
"A Lifelong QPR fan, AirFix modeller and Imperial War Museum fan, she also runs a Charity Shopping Club, encouraging people to shop in charity shops and help reduce lifestyle waste."0 -
YepThreeQuidder said:
A probability of less than 5% that it fails, I assume...Pulpstar said:Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20
At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.0 -
I wouldn't object to being canvassed by her.FrancisUrquhart said:
Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?Casino_Royale said:
Oh, hello.Scott_P said:0 -
Maybe, but, the results from the Council "Pentlands" ward are revealing.kle4 said:I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.
Both Tory candidates elected (no major surprise), but the Labour candidate elected ahead of the second SNP candidate as a result of explicit tactical votes0 -
Fox hunting is BACK ! Rrrr.Scott_P said:0 -
I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/FT/status/8620422241120952390 -
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I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.isam said:
If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v differentTheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239
That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.0 -
I dislike the price cap policy. May ought to be looking at breaking up the cartel which Labour allowed to develop on energy supply.0
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Oh dear , dear! But one should expect litlle more from such a lower form of life.Ishmael_Z said:
Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,justin124 said:
I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classesRobD said:
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.
I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.-1 -
He needs to study the parable of the Just Pharisee.Ishmael_Z said:
Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,justin124 said:
I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classesRobD said:
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.
I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.0 -
I just cannot see LDs winning Bristol West yetthe forecast thinks it the most likely LD gain?
10/3 om Betfair0 -
Encouraging. For the sake of the union a good showing for SCON, SLD and SLAB would be nice, though unlike them I'm tempering expectations.Scott_P said:
Maybe, but, the results from the Council "Pentlands" ward are revealing.kle4 said:I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.
Both Tory candidates elected (no major surprise), but the Labour candidate elected ahead of the second SNP candidate as a result of explicit tactical votes0 -
I hadn't take Ishmael for a Labour supporter. But if you say so.justin124 said:
Oh dear , dear! But one should expect litlle more from such a lower form of life.Ishmael_Z said:
Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,justin124 said:
I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classesRobD said:
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.
I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.0 -
I'm sure I speak for many on here in saying I never felt the need to know that much about your personal fantasies!Theuniondivvie said:
The only good SCon is a well hung one..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I was a Labour voter and when I read about Blue Labour, Glasman etc I thought at last they were talking to old labour voters again... when he ditched him i moved to the kippers, now they've gone full Corbyn militant. A shame I thinkFat_Steve said:
I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.isam said:
If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v differentTheScreamingEagles said:Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239
That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.0 -
It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.Casino_Royale said:I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.
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In fairness it does basically say that on the forecast, I'm just stunned to see it (and as others have pointed out, some places at 99% chances of gains).Pulpstar said:
Individual seat forecasts need a large pinch of salt...kle4 said:I just cannot see LDs winning Bristol West yetthe forecast thinks it the most likely LD gain?
10/3 om Betfair0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.0 -
Good reminder Ave _ It - ThanksGIN1138 said:
If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time!Ave_it said:Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
And yes, I'm well thanks.
I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
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I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.
A clever game of poker, if so.
Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.
I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.
But there is the potential...0 -
Wow.Sandpit said:0 -
Not confident of beating Corbyn in a contest if he does stay on then.TGOHF said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/
Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.
One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.0 -
True, and it reinforces my view that 16 year olds should not have the vote. (I even wonder about 18 year olds sometimes). It makes me wonder why the SNP and the left are so keen on it - as if I didn't know!kle4 said:
Her quoted statements seems a bit more logical than as quoted by Guido earlier - I don't see reference to her not remembering writing the tweets, which was not credible (even if you don't recall specifics, you'd remember being a vulgar racist or making racist jokes, I know I remember making plenty of racist jokes), so just the typical ' I have grown up and matured, x does not represent my views now' stuff, which is all fine, and hopefully true.FrancisUrquhart said:A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.
Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4488920/Labour-student-Bethany-Barker-quits-racist-tweets.html
No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.
She sounds like a right old charmer.
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If Peter Mandelson joins the government I will vote Labour at the next election even if Diane Abbott is the leader.williamglenn said:
It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.Casino_Royale said:I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.
And that is saying something.0 -
Liam Fox up...williamglenn said:
It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.Casino_Royale said:I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.
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I've never really understood the drive for it, and didn't at 16 either, our views on what they can and cannot do is pretty arbitrary. They can join the army (albeit not be sent to combat, IIRC), but not drive, they can have sex, but not drink. Allowing voting before we allow them to drive, for example, just seems silly.Disraeli said:
True, and it reinforces my view that 16 year olds should not have the vote. (I even wonder about 18 year olds sometimes). It makes me wonder why the SNP and the left are so keen on it - as if I didn't know!kle4 said:
Her quoted statements seems a bit more logical than as quoted by Guido earlier - I don't see reference to her not remembering writing the tweets, which was not credible (even if you don't recall specifics, you'd remember being a vulgar racist or making racist jokes, I know I remember making plenty of racist jokes), so just the typical ' I have grown up and matured, x does not represent my views now' stuff, which is all fine, and hopefully true.FrancisUrquhart said:A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.
Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4488920/Labour-student-Bethany-Barker-quits-racist-tweets.html
No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.
She sounds like a right old charmer.
That said, having allowed it in the IndyRef, I don't see how it is justified not doing it elsewhere, unless someone is prepared to not quibble and state they at was a mistake.0 -
How does this compare to TSE's leaflet delivery tips?
https://twitter.com/dollytheis/status/8553882771043655680 -
I doubt she'll be leafleting Vauxhall, it must be like seat 600 to drop !0
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Good plan Steve. I'd be up for attending if I can. Truckles were very amenable - don't the same people have another branch near St James?Fat_Steve said:
Good reminder Ave _ It - ThanksGIN1138 said:
If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time!Ave_it said:Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
And yes, I'm well thanks.
I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.0 -
If she was leafleting for Labour, she would definitely need to ensure they were shellac -ed.....I'll get my coat.Casino_Royale said:How does this compare to TSE's leaflet delivery tips?
twitter.com/dollytheis/status/8553882771043655680 -
The impression I get from the May team is of very fast footwork in response to public reaction to their campaign. May says "Me me me", everyone says "Look at May saying "Me me me"", 48 hours later we see posters saying "Theresa and Team" or whatever they said. I would also expect them to refocus their campaign as they go along to appeal to whichever bits of the electorate look to be in play.Pong said:
I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.TheScreamingEagles said:htps://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/862042489129234432
UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.
A clever game of poker, if so.
Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - and no ukip on their ballot.
I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments, along with social stuff to keep the client vote happy.
But there is the potential...
As for shire tories, it is possibly non-coincidental that they have been thrown a delicious great gobbet of legalised foxhunting to distract their attention from other things.
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Who wants to make foxes a protected species?
And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?
Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
Unless..
We make them a protected species. If they're protected the only way to control their numbers, which we'll soon have to, is to introduce a larger predator.
So we'll have a multitude of wild foxes, and can only control them with even more dangerous wild animals. Sounds like a plan.
So what do anti hunters want; no foxes, unlimited foxes and more dangerous animals to control them (and then what?), or some toffs to pay good money to follow some dogs doing what is natural for them?
Why is poison, trap, or shooting a more acceptable death? Because noone's watching? So why is it ok that we watch Attenborough describing similar stuff in the wild?
I expect only fascists support foxhunting..0 -
Ok, I'll stop now.0
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CPS leaking like a sieve once more.0
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I think labour will hold Vauxhall very comfortably.
It'll be a good reminder of how unimportant specific candidates are in general.0 -
UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
D'oh they're not opposing Hoey
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Go for it, you'll have lots of fun seeing your name up at the count.isam said:
UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
D'oh they're not opposing Hoey
On a serious point will they find the 5k for you ?0 -
Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
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Ipsos MORI, about two weeks back, ComRes three weeks ago.GIN1138 said:Seems a while since we had a ComRes or MORI poll?
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Very possible.Mortimer said:
Good plan Steve. I'd be up for attending if I can. Truckles were very amenable - don't the same people have another branch near St James?Fat_Steve said:
Good reminder Ave _ It - ThanksGIN1138 said:
If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time!Ave_it said:Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
And yes, I'm well thanks.
I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
(hint - should anyone wish to take up the mantle of "Unofficial Drinks Organiser" I am happy to pass it on. Best get official clearance).0 -
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I don't know what you're talking about.kle4 said:
Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.Casino_Royale said:Ok, I'll stop now.
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They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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Excellent Fat Steve - I'll be there!Fat_Steve said:
Good reminder Ave _ It - ThanksGIN1138 said:
If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time!Ave_it said:Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
And yes, I'm well thanks.
I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
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I am going to feel so much better when this is all out of the way. Unless there are thirty prosecutions, of coursekle4 said: 0 -
Time for a couple of new one's soon hopefully!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Ipsos MORI, about two weeks back, ComRes three weeks ago.GIN1138 said:Seems a while since we had a ComRes or MORI poll?
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Didn't we have some scandal about the media being too close to the plod?RobD said:
They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.kle4 said:
I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.dr_spyn said:CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
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I seem to recall that The Spectator dubbed May "the most left-wing Tory PM in 40 years," or words to that effect. She's certainly old enough to have been involved in Conservative activism before Margaret Thatcher became leader.Pong said:
I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.
A clever game of poker, if so.
Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.
I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.
But there is the potential...
If the manifesto transpired to advocate a 21st Century relaunch of one-nation Toryism, then this would not be especially surprising.0
