politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after
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I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Several people I know who aren't that bothered about politics have started conversations with "have you seen that fucking idiot Labour politician... " recently, and not always the same one!peter_from_putney said:
The Tory High Command must be thanking John McDonnell - for many Labour waverers his interview with Marr yesterday must have been the last straw.AndyJS said:
The combined Tory/UKIP share at 55% is one of the highest I've seen. Suggests the Tories aren't just picking up votes from former UKIP supporters.Scott_P said:The latest Guardian/ICM poll is out, and it suggests the Conservatives have a record 22-point lead over Labour. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 49% (up 2 since Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 27% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 6% (down 2)
Greens: 3% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 22 points0 -
Even the French people at work had incomplete information - they had no idea that En Marche was putting up a wide slate of candidates for the assembly, for exampleFrancisUrquhart said:
The reality is most people in the UK don't even follow UK politics that closely, let alone foreign elections. They will have heard lots of bad things about Le Pen, but I doubt many really know much about Macron to be able to express a proper opinion.ThreeQuidder said:This looks like a fairer test than some of the spin we've seen:
twitter.com/YouGov/status/861618328191815680
I only have a outline idea and I post on a politics betting forum.0 -
As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppYgrdJ0pWk0 -
Well I think we can safely say that in the pantheon of great economists and thinkers he stands a little higher than Steve Hawkes.FF43 said:
He "invented" capitalism as we understand it now. So, yes, a great economist who influences all of our thinking"williamglenn said:
Who is Steve Hawkes anyway? Should I know? Should anybody?0 -
'Strong and stable' is narrowly cutting through more than Diane Abbott's ingenious viral campaigning.
https://twitter.com/populuspolls/status/8616257393760215070 -
Debbie Harry is hot.peter_from_putney said:As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppYgrdJ0pWk
If she played her cards right, she could have me.0 -
Don't watch last weeks JoolsPeter_the_Punter said:
Debbie Harry is hot.peter_from_putney said:As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppYgrdJ0pWk
If she played her cards right, she could have me.0 -
Mr. Glenn, polling shows 80,000% of the public are aware of that interview
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Cancelled-1
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Isn't a usual rule of campaigning to try to increase your own vote by showing how qualified you are for office?AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
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I believe Corals currently have Labour 150-199 at 11/8 which gives a little more room. I agree this is good value. It's not free money, but I have to say it's over 50% likelihood.chestnut said:
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
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Ah. Yes, I've been missing the obvious.Fysics_Teacher said:
Isn't a usual rule of campaigning to try to increase your own vote by showing how qualified you are for office?AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
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been working today - was there an ICM poll out earlier? no thread?0
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That was then. This is now.Fysics_Teacher said:
Isn't a usual rule of campaigning to try to increase your own vote by showing how qualified you are for office?AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
If the old rules are defunct, presumably there will be cross-party support for no further action over those pesky Tory overspending cases.0 -
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:0 -
"As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:"
and I have been waiting for someone to post that to give the excuse to post this. Mr. Punter should look away or be prepared to bathe his wrists in cold water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGU_4-5RaxU
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Isn't it splendid? Mind you, it's actually only crossover rather than job done, so things can only get even better!murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:0 -
Evil Empire winning here!Ishmael_Z said:
Isn't it splendid? Mind you, it's actually only crossover rather than job done, so things can only get even better!murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:0 -
"..so things can only get even better!"Ishmael_Z said:
Isn't it splendid? Mind you, it's actually only crossover rather than job done, so things can only get even better!murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:
Hold that thought! I'm sure that there is a good slogan in there somewhere!0 -
I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.0
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but they only got 20% last time? There must be better targets.Scott_P said:Anecdotes from Edinburgh
(Posters familiar with my record can decide for themselves how reliable this information is)
Tories targeting South West. Ahead in the council first pref votes
Explicitly not targeting South, hoping Ian Murray will deliver
Expecting West to go Lib Dem0 -
Misses out the European elections.Scott_P said:0 -
OMG, I've gone blind, I've gone blind......HurstLlama said:"As Mr Meeks remarks, the tide is indeed high and I've been dying to post this all day before the thread disappears:"
and I have been waiting for someone to post that to give the excuse to post this. Mr. Punter should look away or be prepared to bathe his wrists in cold water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGU_4-5RaxU0 -
Finbarr Saunders o'clock.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
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The man who still thought Labour were going to win about 3am in 2015....I guess at least he is an optimist between collecting overdue books.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
My gut says this is currently worse for Labour than polls/models predict. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were closer to 100 seats than 200.0
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I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-50064180 -
Getting lots of people to vote for you is anti-democratic.Ishmael_Z said:
That was then. This is now.Fysics_Teacher said:
Isn't a usual rule of campaigning to try to increase your own vote by showing how qualified you are for office?AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
If the old rules are defunct, presumably there will be cross-party support for no further action over those pesky Tory overspending cases.0 -
hahahahahahahahahahahah .... hahaha ...TheScreamingEagles said:
I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-5006418
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Sorry it was Friday afternoon!TheScreamingEagles said:
I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-50064180 -
SNP hit 45% in Holyrood 2011 !!Scott_P said:0 -
Makes a change for it to be the X axis which is dodgy!Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
Congratulations to the happy couple.TheScreamingEagles said:
I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-5006418
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I don't follow the logic whereby Vince Cable (who celebrates his 74th birthday tomorrow) is the 1/2 favourite to recapture his Twickenham seat. Nationally the share of the vote has swung more towards the Tories than the LibDems since GE 2015, plus his comments recommending LibDems to vote Labour won't impress those LibDem/Tory waverers in his constituency of which there must be a considerable number in such a marginal seat.
Martin Baxter makes it a comfortable Tory hold with a 68% chance of them winning. although his methodology takes no account of the impact of the particular personalities involved.
I've had a few quid on the incumbent Ms Tania Mathias at odds of 6/4. DYOR.0 -
And the PB Pinnochio Award for 2017 goes to.......justin124 said:
Sorry it was Friday afternoon!TheScreamingEagles said:
I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-50064180 -
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:0 -
It wouldn't make a vast difference, would it? I mean the overall picture of Labour on the decline, the SNP rising before 2015, peaking in 2015, and falling back to the advantage of the Tories is broadly the same.Alistair said:
Misses out the European elections.Scott_P said:
Although I do tend to agree that graphs such as this that casually ask people to extrapolate forward in a smooth curve are pretty dodgy. People tend to over-weight the "trend" and under-weight reversion to the mean.0 -
Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.0
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That certainly looks a darn site better bet than their 5/6 odds on Labour winning >157.5 seats.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I believe Corals currently have Labour 150-199 at 11/8 which gives a little more room. I agree this is good value. It's not free money, but I have to say it's over 50% likelihood.chestnut said:
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
Ladbrokes of course offer the same prices on these markets.0 -
Justin seems to have rather a lot in common with Prof Nuttall.0
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That too.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
I'd much prefer the middle and latter candidates than the first. The first is a party drone. The latter two trying their best to hold up democracy.IanB2 said:
In my experience there are three types of paper candidate. Those that take pride in following HQ instructions such that sometimes they never even set foot in their constituency during the campaign. Those that resign themselves to dutifully fulfilling their duties as a candidate, going to meetings and knocking on doors more or less on their own. And those that go off piste and try and run an energetic local campaign with whatever resources they can drag in from the local area.
And if I ever was a paper candidate and was told to NOT campaign in the seat I was selected for, it would be the last time I'd work for that party again.
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It's the hope that gets you.Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
If the Tories beat Salmond, Lord I might break a rib laughing.0 -
"First Minister Carwyn Jones has launched Welsh Labour's general election campaign - making no reference to UK party leader Jeremy Corbyn in a speech to activists in Cardiff"
AntiCorbyn spin from the BBC!0 -
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
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yeah sure....justin124 said:
Sorry it was Friday afternoon!TheScreamingEagles said:
I call bullshit.justin124 said:I came across Clive Lewis in a Norwich pub on Saturday and said to his face what I have stated previously on here - that the best news for Labour would be for Corbyn to be incapacitated by a massive heart attack. He didn't exactly like it - though he calmed down when I assured him I was not actually wishing such an event but simply stating it as an electoral fact.
Because on Saturday Clive Lewis was getting married in London.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/norwich-south-hopeful-clive-lewis-gets-married-in-houses-of-parliament-after-snap-election-caused-him-to-cancel-his-stag-do-1-50064180 -
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
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Where's the 6/1?Pulpstar said:
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
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Extra bottle of champers on standby.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's the hope that gets you.Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
If the Tories beat Salmond, Lord I might break a rib laughing. 0 -
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I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.0 -
Your coat, sir.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.0 -
If the Scots Tories have a stellar night on June 8th they might, just might, knock out Angus Robertson. But the main challenger to Salmond last time was a Lib Dem. He really ought to be considered safe.Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
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Given this is a betting site, do you have anything more substantive than your gut for people to weigh up when looking at the seats spreads ?Jonathan said:My gut says this is currently worse for Labour than polls/models predict. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were closer to 100 seats than 200.
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Gone most likely.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where's the 6/1?Pulpstar said:
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Was with Paddy.0 -
Ta.Pulpstar said:
Gone most likely.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where's the 6/1?Pulpstar said:
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Was with Paddy.0 -
If that doesn't prove that tribal politics is just one big merry-go-round then nothing does;dr_spyn said:
Burnham effectively took Lloyd's old job on Friday.0 -
Jobs for the Labour party boys on the safe labour job merry go round. Best of luck to Danczuk.dr_spyn said:0 -
Shocked it's only 58%. You really do have to reapt a phrase ad nauseam until we all want to throw up for it to really stick.williamglenn said:'Strong and stable' is narrowly cutting through more than Diane Abbott's ingenious viral campaigning.
https://twitter.com/populuspolls/status/8616257393760215070 -
As Punmaster General of PB, if not the internet, I'm really wanting to use that.RobD said:
Your coat, sir.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.0 -
Seems fairly uncontroversial to state he has influenced us in a great many ways.FF43 said:
He "invented" capitalism as we understand it now. So, yes, a great economist who influences all of our thinking"williamglenn said:0 -
That's precisely what happens in US elections with the ads on the TV.nunu said:
Shocked it's only 58%. You really do have to reapt a phrase ad nauseam until we all want to throw up for it to really stick.williamglenn said:'Strong and stable' is narrowly cutting through more than Diane Abbott's ingenious viral campaigning.
https://twitter.com/populuspolls/status/8616257393760215070 -
It's beautiful.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Ah, the fruit basket is full with apples and orangesScott_P said:0 -
In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?0 -
An interesting article on Hartlepool in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/hartlepool-angry-voters-make-fertile-ground-for-ukip
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?0 -
BigRich said:
In the 2015 GE, labour set itself a target of 4 million 'conversations with voters' or 'voter contacts' and in the end announced that they managed to have over 5 million.AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering when we would be seeing the campaigning that breaks all the rules. Do we have very long to wait, yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
Has there been an announcement of what the target is this time?
"236......47 trillion.......3639 and a half "0 -
No longer available. 11/4 is best now available. I struggle to see that as value. Salmond is a tough old campaigner and knows how to lick a Solero. I know these decapitations do sometimes work out, but there is an element of wish-fulfillment in the betting that means the value isn't there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where's the 6/1?Pulpstar said:
I think Banff & Buchan may well drop, it is the most eurosceptic and leave seat in the whole of Scotland. I'm on at 6-1Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
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Maybe, its still a Labour merry-go-round though.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd like to see Danczuk win.
For all their bluster none of the other moderates have ripped Corbyn quite like him, and none of them have had the bollocks to run as an independent.
He's had a few issues, but it's Danczuk for me in Rochdale !
(I've not bet on the seat either way as I have no idea there)0 -
You may say what you wish but you really should not assume that others share your apparent desire to live in a world of fantasy and wishful thinking.FrancisUrquhart said:Justin seems to have rather a lot in common with Prof Nuttall.
I hace come across Lewis on several occasions in the past - though I live 100 yds over the border in Norwich North.0 -
He was the pioneer in identifying the potential weaknesses and downsides of capitalism, for which he deserves credit. but he actually didn't get very far in working out how what followed capitalism would or could work - in essence he identified the problem but not the solution. He has got a raw deal from history as a result of the appalling downsides of other people's solutions to his problems. Academically therefore McDonnell does have a point, despite his comment being appalling politics.kle4 said:
Seems fairly uncontroversial to state he has influenced us in a great many ways.FF43 said:
He "invented" capitalism as we understand it now. So, yes, a great economist who influences all of our thinking"williamglenn said:
Although I doubt too many Labour waverers watch Marr on a Sunday morning.0 -
I don't find this sort of article all that interesting. Journos constantly trek off to X town knowing exactly what story they want to write. Any halfwit can spend a few hours and find a few anecdotes that allegedly "prove" a point.Arthur_Penny said:An interesting article on Hartlepool in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/hartlepool-angry-voters-make-fertile-ground-for-ukip
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?0 -
What's not to like?surbiton said:
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:0 -
I am deeply pessimistic about Labour's chances and I think Labour could lose 80 seats - that makes it 152. But I feel it will end up at circa 165.PaulM said:
Given this is a betting site, do you have anything more substantive than your gut for people to weigh up when looking at the seats spreads ?Jonathan said:My gut says this is currently worse for Labour than polls/models predict. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were closer to 100 seats than 200.
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He threatened to be an independent to try and force them to keep him as Labour nominee, and they have called his bluff. Standing and being defeated is in his financial interest because the exit terms are better for sitting MPs that lose their seats. So I don't really think it demonstrates any confidence or bravado on his part? Even by Labour standards he's not a nice guy.Pulpstar said:
Maybe, its still a Labour merry-go-round though.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'd like to see Danczuk win.
For all their bluster none of the other moderates have ripped Corbyn quite like him, and none of them have had the bollocks to run as an independent.
He's had a few issues, but it's Danczuk for me in Rochdale !
(I've not bet on the seat either way as I have no idea there)0 -
A bit of a rerun of Murphymania !Theuniondivvie said:
This was interesting :
http://labourhame.com/the-sturgeon-surge-may-be-over-but-this-is-a-strategy-nearing-completion/0 -
Exactly the same forecast as Mr Dale!surbiton said:
I am deeply pessimistic about Labour's chances and I think Labour could lose 80 seats - that makes it 152. But I feel it will end up at circa 165.PaulM said:
Given this is a betting site, do you have anything more substantive than your gut for people to weigh up when looking at the seats spreads ?Jonathan said:My gut says this is currently worse for Labour than polls/models predict. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were closer to 100 seats than 200.
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Any views on if and how the million new additions to the electoral roll since the announcement of the election will affect the results?
Is this an unusually high number of new signatures? Is this kids (pro-Corbyn), past non-voters (UKIP/Brexiters, Corbyn?) or what? Will they vote and if so how?0 -
Safe pair of hands. Would point out though that Rochdale voters in recent times - Danczuk, Rowen, Lorna Fitzsimons, Cyril Smith - have been very partial to candidates from Rochdale. Liz Lynne the exception for one term.Richard_Nabavi said:
Tony Lloyd is from Manchester.
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Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.chestnut said:
I was working through the Labour seats earlier from here: http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/ge15index.htmTheValiant said:I do wonder as to Labour's seat losses.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.0 -
I was thinking more along the lines of "Salmond farmed out", which has a certain ring to it doncha think?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.0 -
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.Sean_F said:
What's not to like?surbiton said:
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.0 -
The NYT has got into considerable trouble with this in the past few years. There is a belief in the editorial room and on the staff that they 'set the narrative', rather than 'report the news'. Thus, if the news does not fit the narrative set by the NYT, it is not reported. And confirmation bias does not begin to describe the way they collect the evidence for their 'reporting'.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't find this sort of article all that interesting. Journos constantly trek off to X town knowing exactly what story they want to write. Any halfwit can spend a few hours and find a few anecdotes that allegedly "prove" a point.Arthur_Penny said:An interesting article on Hartlepool in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/hartlepool-angry-voters-make-fertile-ground-for-ukip
When will the LDified leaflets go out "Only UKIP can stop the Tories"?0 -
There was a banner with Corbyn and John McDonnell on the Kop yesterday. Doubt you'd see that many other grounds.Sean_F said:
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.chestnut said:
I was working through the Labour seats earlier from here: http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/ge15index.htmTheValiant said:I do wonder as to Labour's seat losses.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.0 -
I am sure Mrs Duffy would put the kettle on if any of the candidates fancy a chat about their immigration policy?PaulM said:
Safe pair of hands. Would point out though that Rochdale voters in recent times - Danczuk, Rowen, Lorna Fitzsimons, Cyril Smith - have been very partial to candidates from Rochdale. Liz Lynne the exception for one term.Richard_Nabavi said:
Tony Lloyd is from Manchester.0 -
Wonder what the BREXIT impact will be on FDI ?
https://twitter.com/HetanShah/status/8609459070634188810 -
Cured SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.
Graved Alax0 -
Alex. 'ts all mon!Alanbrooke said:
Cured SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.
Graved Alax0 -
And very few people would actually secretly vote BNP in the privacy of the voting booth, either. That's why it isn't a thing any more.surbiton said:
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.Sean_F said:
What's not to like?surbiton said:
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
You really ought to consider adopting the wikipedia editorial policy of assuming good faith - in this case, assuming that concern over immigration is actually concern over immigration, not a mask for rabid racial hatred on the part of a contemptible prole which is easily penetrated by your x-ray vision idiot cunning.0 -
The Labour party is almost a religion up in Liverpool. I'm not knocking it, but Merseyside and Inner London are two places I'm definitely not lumping on the Tories.PaulM said:
There was a banner with Corbyn and John McDonnell on the Kop yesterday. Doubt you'd see that many other grounds.Sean_F said:
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.chestnut said:
I was working through the Labour seats earlier from here: http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/ge15index.htmTheValiant said:I do wonder as to Labour's seat losses.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.0 -
I spot at least 3 cast iron definite peak Nat there time is past moments so far.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/8616488645327257610 -
Or 'Gordon's alive for the Scottish Tories'Alanbrooke said:
Cured SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
I've already got the PB headline sorted if that happensTudorRose said:
That would be Portillo and Balls rolled into one!Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Salmond filleted.
Graved Alax0 -
lolsurbiton said:
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.Sean_F said:
What's not to like?surbiton said:
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.
so the suppression of any debate on the issue had nothing to do with it ?0 -
That's good.surbiton said:
Even 10 years ago very few people other than Jack Boot skinheads would openly admit to voting BNP.Sean_F said:
What's not to like?surbiton said:
On the face of it, there is very little difference between current Tory policies re: Europe and FN in France.murali_s said:
Yep, the Tories are the new UKIP and the masses are flocking to the banner. Sad times...Arthur_Penny said:
What UKIP with its EU-bashing agenda has done is give respectability to openly articulate anti foreigner sentiments in the name of immigration. Basically these people are racists and always have been.0 -
The SLab Gordon candidate from 2015, Braden Davy, won't be standing again, as he's now a new intake SCon councillor.Danny565 said:Dunno if it's already been posted, but apparently the Conservatives beat the SNP by 5% in Alex Salmond's seat last week. Tories also won Banff & Buchan (which had an SNP majority of 30% in 2015), but tht one's more complicated because there was a big independent vote there last week.
Malcolm Bruce (Baron Bruce of Bennachie to plebs like me), the last LD mp for the constituency, has been quite disobliging about Tessy's UKIP, so I don't think they'll be rolling over.0 -
My quick glance over the local elections showed that ~20% of the previous labour vote had simply disappeared over the past 5 years.Sean_F said:
Probably no group of seats has swung more heavily to Labour over the past 50 years than Merseyside.chestnut said:
I was working through the Labour seats earlier from here: http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge15/ge15index.htmTheValiant said:I do wonder as to Labour's seat losses.
Regrettably, coming from Merseyside badly taints my opinion of their seat losses. Round here, swings to the 'Tories' are low and just don't happen. I think the only seat that should be lost here is Wirral West (And the UKPR forum for that seat suggests madly enough that Margaret Greenwood might not actually lose it - with a majority of just 417 and supporting Corbyn - she should be toast). Likewise Wirral South should be very much in play but a local friend reports that Alison McGovern is well liked and has built up a personal vote, which along with the Merseyside effect should see her safe.
Wirral South is No. 46 on the Conservative target list. Those on here talking about 'only' 50 seat losses for Labour should see her gone too, but I don't think she will be.
I do suspect that I see a strong local 'We vote Labour because we vote Labour' effect but I also wonder if that won't translate nationally too, to save Labour from a sub 200 seat meltdown.
I reached 146 that I just could not imagine falling. I had another 26 that I thought Labour were 90% certs to hold. The remainder were the ones at significant risk.
The one caveat is how many Labour supporters will actually get to the booths and vote.
The commitment to vote levels appear to be dreadful in the few demographics where Labour lead. That's what might trigger a deeper collapse.
Betfair had Labour at 11/8 at between 160 and 199. It looked reasonable to me.
0
