politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?
Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election. The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide. Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome.
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First.
OT but I've just doubled-down on Lib Dem 1-10 seats following Vincent this morning0 -
Another blisteringly good piece Alastair0
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No pressure on Tissue Price with this piece
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Paddy Power sub 163.5 5-6, unders.0
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I think we need to also allow for the SE class of voters when interpreting Leave/Remain issues.
It is quite likely that wealthier Remain voters in the home counties vote Tory already, while poorer Leave voters were Labour/kipper.0 -
I feel like the man who sold out too soon on the spreads. Mind you my position looks great on Lib Dem seats unders, so cheers Vince.0
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Cheers Mr Meeks, bad news for Labour, this reads more like an autopsy than a prediction.0
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All Theresa May needs now is for Alex Salmond to pop up and say he'll support Corbyn as PM.Pulpstar said:I feel like the man who sold out too soon on the spreads. Mind you my position looks great on Lib Dem seats unders, so cheers Vince.
But a big hurrah for Sir Vince.
As for not closing out my Tory buy, I think the only person that can ruin that is Alison Saunders.0 -
Well done Mr Meeks. A couple of really good headers in the last couple of days.
I can't back those Labour bands though - there's a real chance of sub 100. London is the key there, and I've not seen anything to convince me that Labour won't collapse in London.0 -
Good analysis Mr Meeks. I am on with Paddy Power at 7/4.
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The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.0
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Surely Farron has got fire Vince and the other one. At least attempt to limit the damage somehow. What was Vince thinking? The Coalition years must have literally driven him insane!0
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We have polling evidence that the swing is greater among Leavers though - whether that's purely because of the referendum or not is another issue.NickPalmer said:The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
A good analysis Mr Meeks.0 -
Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.0
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Scotland 2015 shows what's possible for Labour (as do Wales and Scotland 97 for the Tories).
I'm wary of seat bands until I get a sense of whether this starts to snowball. I don't think they can go under 120 but clearly 2015 shows us the power of a movement against an entrenched party.0 -
Afternoon Mr Palmer,NickPalmer said:The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
Could I ask you a question? I know you're a man that is broadly in favour of Corbyn etc. Does it worry you that every day they announce spending ideas? I know there's some attempts to identify funding for that spending, but it doesn't quite add up. If Labour were elected the country would be very close to going bust - we're close now, and it'd be worse. So I'm curious, does this worry you?
(FWIW even Tory spending scares me)
Edit: Apologies I should have said 'Dr Palmer'0 -
Or alternatively he might confirm it and May gets 400+ seats for hard Brexit. 408 seats voted Leave to 242 RemainRoger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/anti-brexit-parties-would-win-150-fewer-seats-than-pro-leave-par/amp/0 -
Really excellent article, Alastair, many thanks.
The Conservatives have chosen barrister & former Exeter City Council member James Taghdissian as their PPC for Exeter.
http://www.devonlive.com/exeter-conservatives-choose-local-barrister-to-take-on-ben-bradshaw-in-the-general-election/story-30316531-detail/story.html
Good afternoon, everybody.0 -
Are you Diane Abbott?Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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I wonder whether a better metric for how differential the differential swing will be is by looking at the UKIP vote last time? That gives an indication of strength of feeling, and also differentiates more between a 54/46 seat and a 70/30 one - which I think you have to do, because (crudely) you can win with a good chunk of 46%, but almost certainly not with most of 30%.
There is much in the "gateway drug" analysis. UKIP voters coming from Labour in 2015 (or local elections around then), and leaving to the Conservatives now.
So the formula I would suggest is that there will be some basic Labour to Tory swing regardless (Brexit isn't the only show in town - Corbyn/May is just plainly more of a mismatch than Miliband/Cameron, regardless of June 2016). Then there will be an addition to that based on the size of the UKIP vote in 2015. It's a bit crude, but that's broadly how I'd design a modified-UNS calculator.0 -
I think London is the hardest thing to call about this election. Until Vince put his foot in it I was thinking that the Lib Dems were going to do quite well there.Omnium said:Well done Mr Meeks. A couple of really good headers in the last couple of days.
I can't back those Labour bands though - there's a real chance of sub 100. London is the key there, and I've not seen anything to convince me that Labour won't collapse in London.0 -
Just looking at Hill's odds for the GE -
1/33 for Con majority
1/100 - yes - for Con most seats
A paltry 1/20 for May to be PM on June 10th
Mind boggling odds that must be unprecedented anywhere in Western democratic history.
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Can't fault your logic there at all Mr Meeks. This GE is going to be something of a perfect storm. Brexit. Corbyn. UKIP. Locals. Differential turnout. An unsplit right. A chaotic left. Everything seems to be breaking Mrs May's way. I think we're about to achieve Peak Tory. And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time. Or a split.0
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There's another way of looking at this, which Alastair doesn't mention, namely the 2015 UKIP vote in each constituency. My hunch is that that is a better guide to differential swing than the referendum Leave/Remain percentage in the constituency.
Edit: I see that the erudite Sir Norfolk beat me to it.0 -
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Correct. He will be able to prove he's a marxist, terrorist loving, idiotic, divisive, unwashed, stubborn mule who hasn't had a new thought since 1971.Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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I quite like their chances in Bermondsey - Simon Hughes. Elsewhere I'm almost sure they'll not make gains.tlg86 said:
I think London is the hardest thing to call about this election. Until Vince put his foot in it I was thinking that the Lib Dems were going to do quite well there.Omnium said:Well done Mr Meeks. A couple of really good headers in the last couple of days.
I can't back those Labour bands though - there's a real chance of sub 100. London is the key there, and I've not seen anything to convince me that Labour won't collapse in London.
My best bet in 2015 was against Cable in Twickenham, and I'd already bet against him before today's news.
The LD vote in London will vote Tory in my view. As I posted a couple of weeks ago I see Mrs May as leading a 'national unity' government, albeit comprised of only Tories - but anyway a government whose task is to achieve a good Brexit.
I quite like my bet of Tories>50% (@3-1)0 -
Vince Cable from Stalin jokes to Stalinist's useful idiot.
(From an occasional PBer on twitter)0 -
"The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?"
Jeremy's still going to be their number one.0 -
Corbyn will prove beyond doubt that he's an ass. Given his past that's the least of Labour's worries.Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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Patrick said:
Can't fault your logic there at all Mr Meeks. This GE is going to be something of a perfect storm. Brexit. Corbyn. UKIP. Locals. Differential turnout. An unsplit right. A chaotic left. Everything seems to be breaking Mrs May's way. I think we're about to achieve Peak Tory. And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time. Or a split.
Just imagine if the boundary changes were added in too. If there are expected Labour gains in 2022 they might come in handy to thwart a Labour route to a majority.
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I'm of the school that thinks that Leavers' disposition towards the Tories is driven by what drove them to vote Leave, not driven by their Leave vote. It's not too important whether I'm right about this though, what is important is that the polling shows that Leavers are far more likely to support the Conservatives now than Remainers and the swing among the two groups is very different.NickPalmer said:The two seats I know (Nottingham N where I live and Broxtowe where I represented) both voted Leave, but it's rare to meet voters who cite the issue as decisive for them. There's a tendency to feel that the issue is done and dusted: a certain irritation with "new referendum" hard Remainers, but otherwise not that much interest in what the individual candidates and their parties think sabout the nuances of single markets etc. So I wonder if Alastair isn't over-weighting in both directions for the significance.
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There are anecodotal signs that (mostly Inner) London's middle class residents are particularly exercised about Brexit. That could make Labour particularly vulnerable in seats like Hampstead, Hornsey and even Islington South. I expect the Labour vote on the estates in most other seats will be sufficient to see them through.tlg86 said:
I think London is the hardest thing to call about this election. Until Vince put his foot in it I was thinking that the Lib Dems were going to do quite well there.Omnium said:Well done Mr Meeks. A couple of really good headers in the last couple of days.
I can't back those Labour bands though - there's a real chance of sub 100. London is the key there, and I've not seen anything to convince me that Labour won't collapse in London.
The most striking thing about that Welsh poll was the dramatic difference in Tory/Labour lead beweetn stated intention for the local elections and the national. If this is replicated across the UK then I tend to agree that Alastair may be being too optimistic on their behalf. On the other hand voters like a contest and in previous 'walkover' elections such as in the 1980s there was often a small swing back to the opposition in the final week.0 -
It is perfectly clear that Mr Corbyn has a very attractive personality for those who are in sympathy with him. In fact, that may be true also for those who are not already hostile towards or dismissive of him.Patrick said:
Correct. He will be able to prove he's a marxist, terrorist loving, idiotic, divisive, unwashed, stubborn mule who hasn't had a new thought since 1971.Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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Further to saying I dont think labour can go under 120 my feeling is that if they were to, or were 25% behind on June 8th then the collapse below 120 might be unstoppable and no firewall will protect them. As such they have you be looking at 150-170 as the firewall, anything lower is risking complete collapse. It almost happened in 97.......0
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He has less than four and a half weeks now - not seven!Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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The difficulty with this approach, though I'd be interested to see a worked-through model on this approach, is that quite a bit of the swing seems to be generated by direct switching from Labour to the Conservatives. You'd be assuming that kippers were good proxies for Labour switchers. They might be but the mechanism isn't obvious.Richard_Nabavi said:There's another way of looking at this, which Alastair doesn't mention, namely the 2015 UKIP vote in each constituency. My hunch is that that is a better guide to differential swing than the referendum Leave/Remain percentage in the constituency.
Edit: I see that the erudite Sir Norfolk beat me to it.0 -
FPT
Did you quote the wrong post? Where from that did you get the idea I think we should have joined the Euro?JonCisBack said:
I knew you were a Eurofanatic, but not a Euro fanatic.Philip_Thompson said:
No he was not "level with" Conservative figures. He was level during a boom with Conservative figures at the height of a bust! Only an idiot who doesn't understand the concept of boom and bust, or an imbecile who believes they've been eliminated, thinks running a bust-time deficit during boom-time is a good idea.DecrepitJohnL said:
If you look at that graph you link to, you will see it shows that when Brown "cut loose" he was still level with or below the Conservative figures. If you go back to its source and look at the GDP percentage figures, Brown's alleged profligacy is far below the Conservatives'.Arthur_Penny said:
He didn't inherit a surplus but as you can see the budget account was balancing and went into the black - until Brown cut loose .justin124 said:
Brown did not inherit a Budget Surplus. No Tory Chancellor has produced that since Lawson in the late 1980s at the peak of North Sea Oil revenues and Privatisation receipts.prh47bridge said:
The idea that Gordon Brown paid off "Tory debt" is laughable. He inherited a budget surplus and continued to run a surplus for the first 3 years, sticking to a manifesto promise to follow Tory spending plans. Thereafter he ran a deficit every year. Before the financial crisis hit the debt had risen by around 65% on his watch. Even if we ignore the financial crisis the truth is that Brown massively increased the debt.DecrepitJohnL said:
Trump is a Republican and, as Cheney put it: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter. Meanwhile, back in Britain, it was Gordon Brown paying off Tory debt and George Osborne increasing it.
https://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/net-borrowing-totalJ511-600x471.png&imgrefurl=http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5922/economics/uk-budget-deficit-2/&h=471&w=600&tbnid=iPkw2K-kFbIDNM:&tbnh=160&tbnw=203&usg=__xkNmAJoS8sWZxFyh_OayIpIx0kw=&vet=10ahUKEwjTkZGPjODTAhVKDcAKHYy7AdoQ9QEIKjAA..i&docid=hH-dgShxU01jwM&client=firefox-b-ab&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjTkZGPjODTAhVKDcAKHYy7AdoQ9QEIKjAA
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5922/economics/uk-budget-deficit-2/
Oh wow it has been some years since I heard anyone seriously say we should have joined the Euro! How entertainingly bonkers.
Nurse!0 -
My friend says he'll buy me a cake if the Tories take Mansfield as he simply can't comprehend it xD0
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Past boundary changes should give pause for thought to those thinking about Tories 400+. There are a lot of comparisons being made with 1983, when Maggie got 397 seats. Since then boundary changes have favoured Labour by, we're told, up to 30 seats. If TMay gets over 400 seats then it really will have been a momentous achievement. FWIW at the moment I don't think she will, but a few more days of Abbott and Cable and who knows?Brom said:Patrick said:Can't fault your logic there at all Mr Meeks. This GE is going to be something of a perfect storm. Brexit. Corbyn. UKIP. Locals. Differential turnout. An unsplit right. A chaotic left. Everything seems to be breaking Mrs May's way. I think we're about to achieve Peak Tory. And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time. Or a split.
Just imagine if the boundary changes were added in too. If there are expected Labour gains in 2022 they might come in handy to thwart a Labour route to a majority.0 -
120-159 @ 7-4 is a good bet, but it isn't a surefire winner. I think the risk is on unders personally.0
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A good analysis - the only concern I would have is whether there are any Labour losses being forecast in areas where to many people the word 'Conservative' is anathema and thus the Labour vote (even in Leave Areas) will hold up more strongly. There must be several constituencies where the Labour vote is so defined, even if, for instance, they are diluted by Tory voters in the suburbs.
IIRC when the 1st results from the North-east came in last time, the labour share of the vote held up very well. (In fact it held up pretty well all through the country, it was only the Tory shellacking of the Lib-Dem vote that gained Cameron the undisputed keys to number 10.)
The Tory gain, this time, appears to be mainly from the UKIP supporters, Labour may very well have been down to its bedrock in 2015 and the (low) Red-Ukip --> Labour swingback will ameliorate the effects.
Mind you, the way the LDs and Labour are treading through the election minefield makes me wonder whether either of them will get through the other side.
That is not to say that the Tories WONT get a big majority - the re-alignment of Scotland on a Unionist/ Independent theme (with Labour stuck in the middle) is obviously going to help0 -
Trains being cautioned between Hildenborough & Sevenoaks due to sightings of llamas on the line0
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Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.0
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For anyone already on 150-200 Labour seats, the 15/8 from Betfred on 100-149 seats may be a better bet than the Betfair/PP option - slightly better odds and a slightly wider seat range.0
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My modelling has combined both these approaches, along with other tweaks, differentiated between the type of seat. FWIW, in English Lab seats vulnerable to Con I have:AlastairMeeks said:
The difficulty with this approach, though I'd be interested to see a worked-through model on this approach, is that quite a bit of the swing seems to be generated by direct switching from Labour to the Conservatives. You'd be assuming that kippers were good proxies for Labour switchers. They might be but the mechanism isn't obvious.Richard_Nabavi said:There's another way of looking at this, which Alastair doesn't mention, namely the 2015 UKIP vote in each constituency. My hunch is that that is a better guide to differential swing than the referendum Leave/Remain percentage in the constituency.
Edit: I see that the erudite Sir Norfolk beat me to it.
- Con up 10%, Lab down 4%
- 35% of UKIP votes to Con (with the rest remaining with UKIP or being equally distributed)
- 30% of Leave voters in excess of 50% also transferring from Lab to Con
OK, the assumptions are heroic, but my aim is simply to distribute the latest national polling numbers among the 632 GB seats using the local election results as a rough guide to non-uniformity. It is not pretty for the red team...
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I can't quite get out of my head the confident assessment on PB in 2015 tha NOM was free money.Jason said:Just looking at Hill's odds for the GE -
1/33 for Con majority
1/100 - yes - for Con most seats
A paltry 1/20 for May to be PM on June 10th
Mind boggling odds that must be unprecedented anywhere in Western democratic history.
I can't see how, but still...0 -
The boundary effect may diminsh after this election. It has been the case that Tory voting seats are larger than Labour voting ones - thus giving Labour an inherent and unfair vote efficiency advantage. But if they go Tory anyway? The WWC is abandoning Islington. If Mrs May is hoovering these up and making the Tories a non class-based, broader party of the 'small c' conservative vote then this will make the Tory vote more efficient again.TudorRose said:
Past boundary changes should give pause for thought to those thinking about Tories 400+. There are a lot of comparisons being made with 1983, when Maggie got 397 seats. Since then boundary changes have favoured Labour by, we're told, up to 30 seats. If TMay gets over 400 seats then it really will have been a momentous achievement. FWIW at the moment I don't think she will, but a few more days of Abbott and Cable and who knows?Brom said:Patrick said:Can't fault your logic there at all Mr Meeks. This GE is going to be something of a perfect storm. Brexit. Corbyn. UKIP. Locals. Differential turnout. An unsplit right. A chaotic left. Everything seems to be breaking Mrs May's way. I think we're about to achieve Peak Tory. And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time. Or a split.
Just imagine if the boundary changes were added in too. If there are expected Labour gains in 2022 they might come in handy to thwart a Labour route to a majority.
The big question is how permament will this move be? Many kippers are definitely only lending May their vote and many traditional Labour voters will only stay at home because of Corbyn. It's reasonable to assume a significant unwind of the current perfect alignment of the stars for the Tories at the subsequent GE. Especially if Labour's new leader is not a far lefty.
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http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/huge-relief-after-only-11-million-people-vote-for-a-fascist-20170508127219
Pretty accurate from the mash. Although I think given how shit 2016 was politically, liberals can be afforded one celebration and night of gloating!
Mind you, it seems like MLP was celebrating just as hard last night...
https://twitter.com/alexmaless/status/8613126523201495040 -
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I Baxtered the Scottish local election results (obviously take with a pinch of NaCl because of the high independents), but the results are interesting - for the Lib Dems.
CON 14.9% 1 25.3% 13 0 +13 1422 7
LAB. 24.3% 1 20.2% 1 0 +1 2
LIB.. 7.5% 1 6.8% 6 0 +6 7
UKIP 1.6% 0 1.6% 0 0 +0 0
Green 1.3% 0 4.1% 0 0 +0 0
SNP 50.0% 56 32.3% 0 20 -20 36
Minor 0.3% 0 9.7% 0 0 +0 0
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I think many Red Leavers simply will not turn out on the day. Others will back the party anyway.Arthur_Penny said:A good analysis - the only concern I would have is whether there are any Labour losses being forecast in areas where to many people the word 'Conservative' is anathema and thus the Labour vote (even in Leave Areas) will hold up more strongly. There must be several constituencies where the Labour vote is so defined, even if, for instance, they are diluted by Tory voters in the suburbs.
IIRC when the 1st results from the North-east came in last time, the labour share of the vote held up very well. (In fact it held up pretty well all through the country, it was only the Tory shellacking of the Lib-Dem vote that gained Cameron the undisputed keys to number 10.)
The Tory gain, this time, appears to be mainly from the UKIP supporters, Labour may very well have been down to its bedrock in 2015 and the (low) Red-Ukip --> Labour swingback will ameliorate the effects.
Mind you, the way the LDs and Labour are treading through the election minefield makes me wonder whether either of them will get through the other side.
That is not to say that the Tories WONT get a big majority - the re-alignment of Scotland on a Unionist/ Independent theme (with Labour stuck in the middle) is obviously going to help
Also, in all the froth, I tbink that Labour loyalty will stifle some anxieties over the leadership. I suspect 50 net losses is quite likely, and maybe even fewer.
I would cite Wales in support of this, with annoyed Labour voters not turning Tory.0 -
A note of caution from north of the border. SLAB's vote in the locals held up much, much better than the polling indicated. They have been averaging very low teens in the polls but got about 23% (depending on how you deal with those pesky independents). This was despite press and media coverage that makes the treatment of Corbyn and McDonnell look quite favourable.
Scotland may be different because of the Independence issue that dominates everything but the Labour name holds a lot of support, particularly, I suspect, when they know that there is no danger of that idiot being in charge of anything. My guess is that the recent polling showing Labour's vote hardening into the high 20s is probably right. If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection. I agree with him in those circumstances that 170 is a realistic outcome, possibly even a few more. I am tempted by the 151-170 band but my fear of such a bet is on the upside for Labour, not the downside.0 -
The latest Guardian/ICM poll is out, and it suggests the Conservatives have a record 22-point lead over Labour. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 49% (up 2 since Guardian/ICM last week)
Labour: 27% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 6% (down 2)
Greens: 3% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 22 points0 -
Paddy Power are 7/2 UKIP win Thurrock and 15/2 UKIP over 0.5 seats!0
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CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)
ICM0 -
Was there any local polling done for Scotland ?DavidL said:A note of caution from north of the border. SLAB's vote in the locals held up much, much better than the polling indicated. They have been averaging very low teens in the polls but got about 23% (depending on how you deal with those pesky independents). This was despite press and media coverage that makes the treatment of Corbyn and McDonnell look quite favourable.
Scotland may be different because of the Independence issue that dominates everything but the Labour name holds a lot of support, particularly, I suspect, when they know that there is no danger of that idiot being in charge of anything. My guess is that the recent polling showing Labour's vote hardening into the high 20s is probably right. If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection. I agree with him in those circumstances that 170 is a realistic outcome, possibly even a few more. I am tempted by the 151-170 band but my fear of such a bet is on the upside for Labour, not the downside.
Locals =/= the General. Lab 28 Tories 26 in Welsh local poll, same sample gave 40-30 for the General.
We can identify areas of strength (Lib Dem Edinburgh West) but to read straight across to seat count is dangerous.
Labour would be a shoo in to gain the Gower if we went just off the locals, I expect Byron will extend his majority there. Similiarly Lib Dem/Tory battle in Eastleigh and so on and so forth.0 -
If he'd said he would buy you a car, that would indicate that he couldn't comprehend it. Keeping the stake so suggests he can comprehend it only too well.Pulpstar said:My friend says he'll buy me a cake if the Tories take Mansfield as he simply can't comprehend it xD
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Well, name and shame.Fysics_Teacher said:
I can't quite get out of my head the confident assessment on PB in 2015 tha NOM was free money.Jason said:Just looking at Hill's odds for the GE -
1/33 for Con majority
1/100 - yes - for Con most seats
A paltry 1/20 for May to be PM on June 10th
Mind boggling odds that must be unprecedented anywhere in Western democratic history.
I can't see how, but still...
The odds are where they are because we've had good government in the last 7 years. The much maligned Cameron and Osbourne really delivered. May is a very capable PM building on those achievements. Opposition parties on the other hand have looked increasingly out-of-touch. I don't think these things are in question.
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You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seatjustin124 said:Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
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Macron on Dave's deal:
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i believe Diane Abbott is timing the countdown clock.justin124 said:
He has less than four and a half weeks now - not seven!Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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Is there not a risk of circular reasoning here ?
I could be wrong, but I thought that Hanretty's estimates were based on a combination of the local authority vote, some demographic assumptions, and the UKIP vote in a given constituency.
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Martin Boon's sent out an email regarding this poll
In the last weeks, we’ve been paying close attention to the individual value of each of our post data collection methodological techniques, to see how far each is actually pushing the vote shares in different directions compared to raw data. Much more on this will be revealed at a later date, but the evidence so far is that the techniques are working in exactly in the ways, and with the relative strengths (for the main two parties) we were looking for.
Indeed, although this is an exercise in the absurd, if we had applied these techniques to our final prediction poll before the 2015 election, instead of predicting a 1-point Labour win as we did, we would have predicted a much more accurate election outcome.
But of course we have sought to correct an error that has affected the main two parties, and now we live under significantly different electoral conditions. The performance of the Liberal Democrats in the council elections – at least in terms of vote shares rather than seats – implies we have a new, but real problem with them if PNS is correct. That said, my view prior to 2015 was that we were over-stating the extent of their fall, but in the event we were largely not.
Some readers may feel my pain.
It would be rash for a pollster to panic themselves into methodological revision at this point. Too often of late, we have seen last-minute methods moves that worsened predictive performance, and brought associated accusations of herding. It would be wrong for any pollster with their reputation on the line to rule out methodological tweaks, especially if it’s obvious that final poll samples are clearly out of kilter, but better to trust in the methodology than to rush into error.0 -
Lose Edinburgh South, gain East Lothian (But that is it) is my leftfield SLAB prediction.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seatjustin124 said:Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
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The ICM has the Tories on 51 before reweighting.0
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Leave and UKIP would be reasonably correlated I think, so either is probably ok to use as a metric.PaulM said:Is there not a risk of circular reasoning here ?
I could be wrong, but I thought that Hanretty's estimates were based on a combination of the local authority vote, some demographic assumptions, and the UKIP vote in a given constituency.
It'll never be a precise science no matter what is used.0 -
Brexit induced/Sadiq induced or just London 2017
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8614611234633523200 -
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.JonathanD said:DavidL said:If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.0 -
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.DavidL said:
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.JonathanD said:DavidL said:If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.0 -
True in the Central Belt. Not true in the rest of ScotlandDavidL said:
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.JonathanD said:DavidL said:If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.0 -
williamglenn said:
Macron on Dave's deal:
Although the UK was already in a fairly special situation in the EU prior to the deal, by not being part of the Euro. That alone meant there was a good case for some flexibility regarding the UKs membership conditions.
Anyway, it looks like the EU is going to be quite happy to give us 'no deal' if that is what we want so that's good.
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Great article @AlastairMeeks, I'm in with you on the 7/4 120-159 band.
Fantastic analysis, in sharp contrast to the comments this morning on "Leavers" and "Fascists". A huge number of us voted to leave the EU because of their desire to end up as a single European country, led by the unaccountable and unsackable bureaucracy of J-C Drunker, and with an inward-facing EU view of the world. The views of the Michael Goves and Dan Hannans are not the same as the Nigel Farages and Marine Le Pens, the former want to trade freely with the world and take advantage of our strengths in specialised goods, services, language and time zone to improve our position in the top half dozen countries in the world. We remain positive for a post-Brexit future.0 -
Has one of the clever types on here worked out how the Corbyn/Left aligned Labour MPs map to the safest Labour seats? i.e. as the Labour seat count declines toward their core safest seats does the alignment of the residual MPs start to work in favour or against a Corybn/Left aligned leadership candidates getting the necessary % of MPs to put them on the ballot assuming no rule change on that %age? I wonder if there is a sweet spot for both the Left and the Moderates in terms of what a 'good' defeat looks like in each case?0
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Another Welsh poll out today....i dont know what it will show, but just want to point out that Plaid 'won' Rhondda, Caerphilly & Cardiff West last week, and were close in Neath. Independents also won in Blaenau Gwent who are likely to switch to Plaid.....could be worth a flutter on Plaid seat totals, 40
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In terms of share of the vote I am not so sure, they certainly won't do as well as they did in 2015. Of course FPTP will favour them enormously in the GE as the lack of second preferences for Unionists causes an inefficiency in the vote. Like many in Scotland I would vote for the Unionist party which had the best chance in the constituency in which I lived. But it is not always obvious which that is...Pulpstar said:
We need a Scotland GE poll. I suspect the SNP will do better in the GE than the locals.DavidL said:
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.JonathanD said:DavidL said:If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.0 -
even 150 is a complete thrashing, I was thinking about 200 if they were lucky.dyedwoolie said:Further to saying I dont think labour can go under 120 my feeling is that if they were to, or were 25% behind on June 8th then the collapse below 120 might be unstoppable and no firewall will protect them. As such they have you be looking at 150-170 as the firewall, anything lower is risking complete collapse. It almost happened in 97.......
130 holy feck!0 -
I can pretty much guarantee that Labour will not have any seats in Scotland outside the central belt.PaulM said:
True in the Central Belt. Not true in the rest of ScotlandDavidL said:
The swing in Scotland that matters is Lab/SNP because the SNP currently hold pretty much all the seats, certainly the ones that Labour are looking at recovering. As the SNP is also a remain party I don't think that explains the result. This may indeed make Scotland different but those betting on the bands should be aware that there is a chance of a small handful of Labour MPs from north of the border being added in. Its one of the reasons I am nervous about 170.JonathanD said:DavidL said:If so the swing will be nearer 5% than the 7.5% on Alastair's central projection.
But Scotland was a more remainy area which would suggest less of a Lab to Tory swing than Alistair's central projection, so a 5% swing would probably be predicted.0 -
have we seen the Welsh poll?0
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Ok...cant edit....wanted to say 4 seats virtually guaranteed - 5 more in close contention. Not saying Plaid will win 9....but bet on 5+0
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Greens are loonies. Watermelons. And more aligned with Islington than WWC areas. If Labour ever, ever wants to have a UK majority it needs to regain votes from middle England. They'd be better off abandoning Islington and looking back to their work related origins for a policy and appeal rethink.chestnut said:
It will have fewer old Labour types (me grandpa always voted Labour, so did me dad, so do I) and a lot more Greens in it.Patrick said:And, possibly, a newly de-loonified Labour party in a few weeks' time.
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I reckon the MAX for Scottish Labour is three - Edi South, East Lothian and possibly Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
Edi South (Held, but could be vulnerable to the Tories from third or SNP through the middle)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%) <- Scottish Torie surge
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%) <- SNP held up here
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%) <- I think this could drop
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%) <- Potentially ? Stretch though. SNP holding up up in Greater glasgow/Dougie personal vote unwind
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%) <- Tory target
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%) <- Tory target
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)* <- Tory target
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%) <- Getting into the realm of monstrous swings, SLAB looks too weak to manage these.
It isn't a change election for the SLAB/SNP dynamic as the last one was, and alot of the easier targets have the Tory klaxon surge.0 -
My prediction is they will get both. Edinburgh South is a toss-up TBH with the Conservatives also looking close, based on the Council results. Midlothian possible. There has been a collapse in SNP support in the council with Labour benefiting. Demographically, East Lothian, and particularly Midlothian are becoming overspill for Edinburgh and will be affected by some apparently quite radical voting shifts in the city.Pulpstar said:
Lose Edinburgh South, gain East Lothian (But that is it) is my leftfield SLAB prediction.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seatjustin124 said:Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
The trends Alistair describes in his header don't apply to Scotland. There is no UKIP support to speak of; Labour was already at the floor in 2015; independence, not Brexit, is the key motivator. Above all, there is a totally different dominant party in the SNP.0 -
Tories on 53 in England.
Labour lead 43-39 in seats where they hold a majority of over 15%
We need a London poll.0 -
4.00pm I thinkSquareRoot said:have we seen the Welsh poll?
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If all betting was conducted in cakes, I'd probably pay more attention.0
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Shush. Rogerdamus has spoken, and we all know how those predictions tend to work.glw said:
Are you Diane Abbott?Roger said:Very interesting though a little pessimistic. Though William Hague's theory that the result at the end of the campaign is seldom different from the polls at the beginning I think this one might prove the exception. . At the moment most voters think Corbyn is a donkey. He has seven weeks to prove otherwise and I think he might be able to do that.
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How can I have loyalty to a party I will not be supporting?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do have so much loyalty Justin. Labour will be very lucky to keep their one Scottish seatjustin124 said:Re- Scotland. I suspect Labour will be content to be only 12% behind the SNP compared with the almost 26% margin in 2015. That amounts to a swing from SNP to Lab of circa 7% and should enable Labour to claw back some of their 2015 losses.
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