politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
Comments
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Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.0
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AlastairMeeks said:0
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0.6659672663Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6665932647
0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in !
0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though0 -
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Meltdown.
https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet
His mummy going to need to send him to bed with extra Ovaltine tonight.
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Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.0 -
+5AlastairMeeks said:0 -
With all your heart?kle4 said:
+5AlastairMeeks said:
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Never know, a few near even batches could come in from some french backwater. What % is left?Pulpstar said:
0.6659672663Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6665932647
0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in !
0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though</p>0 -
64.88% with 92% counted.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
Looking forward to my summer holiday in Gascony this summer. Checked the commune where we will be: a strong Macron victory.
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Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago0
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8% according to the Interior Ministry.Chameleon said:
Never know, a few near even batches could come in from some french backwater. What % is left?Pulpstar said:
0.6659672663Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
0.6665932647
0.6393071348 <- 55% batch came in !
0.6618710569
My estimates based on the batches coming in and votes left. Generally over 66% though</p>
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Can you remember what the odds were?isam said:Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago
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You placed the bet that long ago? What odds?isam said:Some betting firms customer services teams are so crap! I've been on the phone now for half an hour and the women can't find my 'Macron to win the French presidency' bet. Seems like there's an issue because it was placed before they merged with another company three years ago
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Mummy jokes and Macron are Frankie Boyle territory.Theuniondivvie said:Meltdown.
https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet
His mummy going to need to send him to bed with extra Ovaltine tonight.0 -
Votes still left in Paris, Marseilles and Lyons only I think.0
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Indeed, so where is your 66% to come from?Pulpstar said:Votes still left in Paris, Marseilles and Lyons only I think.
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Don't be sad.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Depends on the remaining mix now, if it is 77% Macron he will be at 66%.gettingbetter said:
Indeed, so where is your 66% to come from?Pulpstar said:Votes still left in Paris, Marseilles and Lyons only I think.
He's just past 65.02% by the way.
8% of the vote left.0 -
20 communes left down in Bouches du Rhone - which is 55/45 as it stands.0
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So if it is below 65% Macron then Le Pen may just edge it. How did Marseilles and Lyon break in the 1st round?Pulpstar said:
Depends on the remaining mix now, if it is 77% Macron he will be at 66%.gettingbetter said:
Indeed, so where is your 66% to come from?Pulpstar said:Votes still left in Paris, Marseilles and Lyons only I think.
He's just past 65.02% by the way.
8% of the vote left.0 -
Most of the ones left aren't particularly Le Pen friendly.chestnut said:20 communes left down in Bouches du Rhone - which is 55/45 as it stands.
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2 mahoosive communes still left in Paris.brokenwheel said:
Most of the ones left aren't particularly Le Pen friendly.chestnut said:20 communes left down in Bouches du Rhone - which is 55/45 as it stands.
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Better than 35%?brokenwheel said:
Most of the ones left aren't particularly Le Pen friendly.chestnut said:20 communes left down in Bouches du Rhone - which is 55/45 as it stands.
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Btw, the France 24 map is now a bit more up to date than the NYT one after being behind most of the evening:
http://graphics.france24.com/results-second-round-french-presidential-election-2017/0 -
Be right back, just going to misplace a few Parisian ballots.Pulpstar said:
2 mahoosive communes still left in Paris.brokenwheel said:
Most of the ones left aren't particularly Le Pen friendly.chestnut said:20 communes left down in Bouches du Rhone - which is 55/45 as it stands.
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MLP at 34.22, can't see the average of the ballots left splitting evenly in order to pull her over the 35 mark.0
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Only one oustanding in Paris central - 12th arrondissement.
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Lol that is ahead of the interior ministry.brokenwheel said:Btw, the France 24 map is now a bit more up to date than the NYT one after being behind most of the evening:
http://graphics.france24.com/results-second-round-french-presidential-election-2017/0 -
Interesting choice of music tweet for the Presidente elect:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8613504711302840320 -
Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.0
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What if it had gone Le Pen, would you have cancelled your holiday?!SouthamObserver said:
64.88% with 92% counted.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the exit poll in the header is spot on then.Chameleon said:Seems to be a slight stall in Macron's advance, with Le Pen at 35.2% and about 8% left. Sadly this means he's probably going to get ~65.5. Good night all.
I've poured myself a large cognac to celebrate.
French culture is as multifaceted as our own, but I see that Gascony is blue on the NYT map, so it seems appropriate.
Looking forward to my summer holiday in Gascony this summer. Checked the commune where we will be: a strong Macron victory.0 -
Those are the wrong lyrics aren't they?foxinsoxuk said:Interesting choice of music tweet for the Presidente elect:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861350471130284032
Edit: a deliberate change... arty!0 -
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.Chameleon said:Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.0 -
Game, set, match then. Sometimes you win, sometime you lose (by a few 0,000's in 30m).brokenwheel said:
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.Chameleon said:Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Edit: Indeed, one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.0 -
Actually yes she'll pull it back a bit but I think a tall order to get back to Macron under 65.01%. He has .77% margin, which is alot at this point.Chameleon said:Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Paris 12 will be 90ish% Macron too0 -
Well, they're English......isam said:
Those are the wrong lyrics aren't they?foxinsoxuk said:Interesting choice of music tweet for the Presidente elect:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/861350471130284032
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Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?0
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Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...0
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John The
BaptistMarxist has a few problems....
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/0 -
Which is that ?brokenwheel said:
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.Chameleon said:Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Allauch ?0 -
We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.0
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That had alreadly gone, I was referring to Marseille 11eme.Pulpstar said:
Which is that ?brokenwheel said:
It appears the Fillonista grannies have broken less to Le Pen than polling in the campaign assumed meaning these should go Macron.Chameleon said:Looking at the first round results of the Marseille wards left to report... they look like they could definitely split evenly, or perhaps marginally towards Le Pen.
Edit: Infact one of her better ones has just flipped Macron.
Allauch ?0 -
Hopefully burnt to a crisp. We don't want anybody thinking they can put a bit of butter on it and carry on.Pulpstar said:We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
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The slow unfolding of the story is one of the beauties of a British election. Imagine knowing the outcome two minutes after the poll had closed. Imagine the ramifications for gambling.Pulpstar said:We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
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I thought English had lost importance? Odd...chestnut said:
Well, they're English......isam said:
Those are the wrong lyrics aren't they?foxinsoxuk said:Interesting choice of music tweet for the Presidente elect:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8613504711302840320 -
Don't they sample actual ballot papers? I think that would take a change in the law.Pulpstar said:We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
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No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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Sorry? Given John McDonnell is famous for being a Marxist, have they really only just noticed?FrancisUrquhart said:John The
BaptistMarxist has a few problems....
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/0 -
True, every election has a different flavour. The US is by far the funniest as the presenter suddenly realises there aren't enough votes left in Miami to flip the state, and the panhandle is "still voting" !chestnut said:
The slow unfolding of the story is one of the beauties of a British election. Imagine knowing the outcome two minutes after the poll had closed. Imagine the ramifications for gambling.Pulpstar said:We should get the French samplers for our election, within minutes we'll know exactly how toast Corbyn is.
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Hahaha.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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FrancisUrquhart
'Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?'
Agree he's done the easy bit, next his new party needs a majority in Parliament & then any new laws need to get passed the French unions,good luck with that.
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No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
Both in the UK and Germany, when it is time to reform these things people broadly support the reforms.0 -
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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2% left, Macron on 65.8%.0
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Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?williamglenn said:
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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Indeed but Thatcher needed iron and persistence to get the reforms through with serious battles against the strikers. Does Macron have the iron to get through years of strikes that threaten to cripple Europe?williamglenn said:
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
Not seen any evidence that he does.0 -
There are plenty of signs that Macron is a cut above the average political phenomenon, and his path to power was full of bold and unconventional steps. He's much more prepared to lead a government than Blair for example.BenedictWhite said:
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?williamglenn said:
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?nunu said:Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.0 -
What evidence do you have of that?williamglenn said:
There are plenty of signs that Macron is a cut above the average political phenomenon, and his path to power was full of bold and unconventional steps. He's much more prepared to lead a government than Blair for example.BenedictWhite said:
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?williamglenn said:
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
He has gone in my eyes for the Blair/Clegg "be all things to all people" blank sheet of paper that people project their hopes onto. The polar opposite of an iron-willed principled politician that doesn't care if they're hated so long as they can get their ideas through.0 -
66,06 %0
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If Dr Fox isn't taking up the bet are you interested in this? £10 at evens that UKIP fails to get a 20% in a single constituency?isam said:
I think it's probably a bet but I'll hold on to see if @foxinsoxuk wants to up the stakes at 15%... he seems confident so he probably will when he sees thisPhilip_Thompson said:
I'll pass thanks. I expect UKIP will fail to get 4% nationally but there may be the odd seat where they scrape 18%. I'd shake on a tenner evens odds at 20% if you're interested?isam said:
Even moneyPhilip_Thompson said:
What are the odds?isam said:
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.Philip_Thompson said:
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?nunu said:Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
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We'll find out shortly enough when it comes to Le Touquet.BenedictWhite said:
Any evidence of a strategic combative leader in France?williamglenn said:
People said the same about Thatcher. A leader who's strategic, combative and persistent can get results.BenedictWhite said:
No, really, he can't. (Neither could Fillon even if he won) because there will be strikes all over which will shut France down whilst people broadly support the strikes.Pulpstar said:
Depends on the legislative elections. If En Marche and Les Republicains can get over 50% of the seats then maybe.BenedictWhite said:
No.FrancisUrquhart said:Now the hard work starts...can he really get labour reforms through?
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And what do we do with the people?Charles said:
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.Philip_Thompson said:
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?nunu said:Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?0 -
With respect to Cyclefree, I think she sees her concept of culture and nationhood too narrowly as the only emotionally attractive way to live. Multiculturalism means being part of the gloriously rich and diverse world without worrying about which border was laid down by which baron in 1246 or whatever. To see culture as a purely national matter is to limit oneself unnecessarily in a world of delight that would take several lifetimes to enjoy.SouthamObserver said:
It's not that long ago that most people in France didn't speak French. Multiculturalism can also mean Basque, Flemish, Provencal, Gascon, Corsican, Breton, Catalan etc Have you read The Discovery of France? If not, I really recommend it.Cyclefree said:
Multiculturalism - in its rather superficial "Isn't a rainbow lovely?" way - is a nonsense because rather than seeing a country as a home where all are part of the family, with a shared history, shared traditions, shared - if unspoken assumptions - about how we behave and with obligations to look after each other because we are "family" even (especially) if we don't like each other, sees a country as a hotel where people come and go, barely interact with each other and simply avail themselves of its services in return for financial contributions only.
I don't - as should be clear - share Le Pen's view of the world but I fear that Macron's tolerance is little more than an unwillingness to address the challenges which France faces from those who simply refuse to accept the idea of France at all and that this is motivated by fear and cowardice, however much people may like to dress it up. Easy to criticise Le Pen. Much harder to come up with a way of addressing the issues she raises. "We must be / are diverse" is trite banality, not an answer or a policy.
Macron needs to be something more than simply "not Le Pen".0 -
Is that graphic accurate in saying that there is a two-term maximum? If so, since when?0
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Give Eurostar the legal obligation to return them to point of origin or pay 100k per yearPhilip_Thompson said:
And what do we do with the people?Charles said:
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.Philip_Thompson said:
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?nunu said:Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?0 -
How hard can it be to stop illegals coming through the tunnel at the French end?Philip_Thompson said:
And what do we do with the people?Charles said:
Fine Eurostar Eur20k for every illegal immigrant that makes it through the tunnel. It's majority owned by the French state so they can afford it.Philip_Thompson said:
I would guess because of the anger there by the French living in that region about how many illegal aliens are frequently camped there?nunu said:Pas- De Calais is one of only two Departments voting for Le Pen. Hmm I wonder why...
Hopefully Macron doesn't follow through in making it our problem.
Automatically reject any asylum bids in Dover as they have passed through France.
Can't deport them back to France, they won't take them (same reason France can't deport them back to Spain/Italy/Germany that they must have travelled through).
Can't deport them back to Afghanistan etc due to human rights laws.
Can't integrate them into society as their asylum bid was denied.
So what do we do?0 -
New thread!0
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Have the Tories ruled out 60p tax rate ? For anybody ?FrancisUrquhart said:John The
BaptistMarxist has a few problems....
John McDonnell faces a Labour revolt to unseat him as shadow chancellor after he said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.
Shadow cabinet sources said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man, who has described himself in the past as an “unapologetic Marxist”, had done nothing to help Labour’s cause with a month to go to the general election.
And while they said it was too late to mount a challenge to Mr McDonnell or Mr Corbyn before the June 8 ballot, there will be “no holding back” when Labour MPs come back to Parliament after the election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/0
