politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
Comments
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I've read it plenty of times.tyson said:
And finally something for us liberal moderates to be pleased about in the west...foxinsoxuk said:
The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
I haven't read much in these parts about what a remarkable achievement Macron has made....,0 -
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Interesting comments already coming through from French politicians of the mainstream parties. Macron is getting a lot of support from the socialists but Le Républicans are positioning themselves to be the opposition, and will be trying hard to get a majority, or at least a blocking minority, in the Assembly elections. Macron has to be careful not to identify too closely with the socialists, who are very unpopular.0
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I feel sorry for Cyan's Betfair balance.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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She must be pretty furious. Assuming the Fillion stuff would have come up anyway, and he came third I believe, I can see why she might assume she might have had a chance if Macron hadn't been there, and may not ever get a better chance again.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.0 -
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leadersJason said:Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
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George O is a mate of Macron isn't he - certainly very pro him at least even before the second round...0
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kle4 said:
Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?
Thank you both. I could work out the rest but that word foxed me (for some reason it's not one that's ever come up in conversations I've had).TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.0 -
All true, but Dupont-Aignan has tied himself to MLP now - you can't walk back from endorsing her, so he may as well go all in!rcs1000 said:
Debout Le France, though, was economically literate, while the Front National was economically populist. DLF wanted lower tariffs. The FN wanted 35% tariffs on everything. DLF wanted to reduce regulation. The FN wanted more worker protections and more government interference.Paristonda said:
Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.Pulpstar said:
What and split the FN vote ?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Ask the socialists how that worked out
It's like tying together Farage and Corbyn on the basis that they're both hostile to the EU. It doesn't lead to policy coherence.0 -
Yup, George will be chuffed to buggery with this result.Scrapheap_as_was said:George O is a mate of Macron isn't he - certainly very pro him at least even before the second round...
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so she is saying you french are all sons of bitches? So patriotic....TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
It's a spoof account, surely.TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
Yupnunu said:
so she is saying you french are sons of bitches? So patriotic....TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
At some point it would be unavoidable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leadersJason said:Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
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Somebody has to be on the other side of the bet...Alistair said:
I feel sorry for Cyan's Betfair balance.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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Nope, although these days you can't tell.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's a spoof account, surely.TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.0
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Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.-1
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Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of the French electorate "Fascist"?0
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hopefully not quite that chuffed surely....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, George will be chuffed to buggery with this result.Scrapheap_as_was said:George O is a mate of Macron isn't he - certainly very pro him at least even before the second round...
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Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.0 -
That is a great movie moment. I particularly love the moment when the fat bloke with a beard punches the air to emphasise his second 'marchez'. Real spine tingle. Very appropriate for tonight!Theuniondivvie said:https://youtu.be/ KTsg9i6lvqU
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Putin, Trump, Merkel, and May would all either want or need to meet her very soon after the election (all for different reasons of course).kle4 said:
At some point it would be unavoidable.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If Le Pen had won I doubt she would have been meeting any leadersJason said:Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
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The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.0 -
I vowed to have nothing to do with the French election given I knew nothing about France. But that polling, that polling drew me in.AlastairMeeks said:I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.
Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.0 -
Thanks for that.OllyT said:
Fair point - I did say "certain" PB Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
I do think too many on here associate the party with the right of Farage et al when it is absolutely not the case. It does not mean that I want a soft Brexit as we must take back control and have our laws judged by our Supreme Court but I for one welcome immigration to our Country but it must be controlled by our Government.0 -
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.0 -
34.5% and falling.Sunil_Prasannan said:Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of thr French electorate "Fascist"?
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The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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What annoys me about my behaviour is that I had the strategy absolutely right but my tactics at times were idiotic.Alistair said:
I vowed to have nothing to do with the French election given I knew nothing about France. But that polling, that polling drew me in.AlastairMeeks said:I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.
Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.
Still, a profit's a profit.0 -
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.spudgfsh said:I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative
2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat
3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19
on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
2. any better guesses on my numbers here?
3. what do I do about Scotland?
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.0 -
Nouvelle Caledonie
Macron 52.57%
Le Pen 47.43%
Polynesie
Macron 58.39
Le Pen 41.61
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The French take things pretty easy don't you know.JackW said:felix said:
The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Is he on holiday for all of year 5?felix said:
The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
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We see it every time the Tories win over here (I presume when Labour do too, but I wasn't paying much attention in 2005 and earlier as I was only 19 and not yet an anorak)nunu said:
so she is saying you french are all sons of bitches? So patriotic....TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
If you take the vote blancs and the abstention rate, it is higher than Le Pen's score (I'm quoting what I see on TF1)0
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I did enjoy his stories about how someone he was green on was totally going to win or how one of his reds was just about to collapse no seriously, any moment.Richard_Nabavi said:
Somebody has to be on the other side of the bet...Alistair said:
I feel sorry for Cyan's Betfair balance.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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Dan Hodges is right. This isn't a victory, this is a warning. 1 in every 3 people in France voted for Le Pen! They cannot be ignored forever.0
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If we look at the national poll subsamples, the one glaring anomaly I can see is the South (excl London).spudgfsh said:1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
Everywhere else points to a substantial Lab-Con swing, but the South is showing a small Tory-Lab move - who knows if it is true?
The Greens polled 5.9% in the SW, 5.2% in the SE and 4.9% in London.
My guess is that many will migrate to Corbyn.
This is from a study performed in 2015:
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Ideology: left, liberal – and a fair few former Green voters
Labour’s new members are, as expected, pretty left-wing across the board, although this was also the case, note, for pre-GE2015 members, the vast majority of whom tended to think badly of business and fondly of redistribution. New members and supporters are, though, even more anti-austerity and inclined to think that government spending cuts have gone much too far though. They are also more socially-liberal than pre-GE2015 members. This should not come as a surprise perhaps given the fact that a relatively high number of the post-GE2015 full members and registered supporters voted Green in 2015.
Some 17 per cent of new members voted Green at the general election in 2015- a figure which rises to 20 per cent of registered supporters, 28 per cent of those who first joined as registered supporters and then became full members, and 24 per cent of those who joined the Party after Corbyn became leader. This compares to just 6 per cent of pre-May 2015 members. Even in May 2016, nearly one in ten of those Londoners who joined Labour as members or registered supporters after the general election voted for the Green candidate, Sian Berry, rather than Sadiq Khan.
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I suspect this grouping are bumping up Labour's numbers in the South and stopping them go completely through the floor nationally.
Most of these votes are absolutely pointless though for gaining or retaining seats as they usually sit in rock solid urban Labour seats or rock solid suburban Tory ones.
Examples include 10-15% in Lewisham Deptford, Hackney N, Islington S etc.
Labour's numbers in the polls are usually best with a typical Green voter demographic -under 35, studying etc.
I think Labour are losing valuable votes in marginals and replacing some of them with pointless ones in safe seats.0 -
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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What did I say?Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Is there any evidence that strong and stable government is good for the people? Italy did much better in the days when it didn't have a functioning government. Since the permanent coalitions and collapses, the economy has performed much less well.Disraeli said:
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.0 -
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.0 -
One of the greatest two minutes of film in cinematic historyTheuniondivvie said:0 -
I believe two of the charges have now expired due to Sweden's statute of limitations and the third expires soon.kle4 said:
The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.
So before too long the only charge the police could make against him is jumping bail here, which I believe is not considered a serious matter.0 -
traduisez s'il vous plait. Est-ce que c'est argot/TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/8612798166744064000 -
Maybe Macron can give him a job.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, George will be chuffed to buggery with this result.Scrapheap_as_was said:George O is a mate of Macron isn't he - certainly very pro him at least even before the second round...
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Absolutely - the British people are just the scum of the earth and the French the saviours of Europe. There that makes you feel better doesn't it.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.0 -
Thanks for ensuring Spurs can't finish below Liverpool today and a penalty save for my keeper too - v helpful.... nearly rescued my weekend from friday's disappointment....but not quite.TheScreamingEagles said:
What did I say?Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
I knew that somebody would bite! Sorryrcs1000 said:
Is there any evidence that strong and stable government is good for the people? Italy did much better in the days when it didn't have a functioning government. Since the permanent coalitions and collapses, the economy has performed much less well.Disraeli said:
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.
( I thought that I was giving the game away with the "strong and stable" bit)
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Just a reminder, First Past The Post has been remained the Long Jump Electoral System.0
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Does anyone have a live results page?0
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Think of it more as a double reason to be cheerful, Alistair.AlastairMeeks said:
What annoys me about my behaviour is that I had the strategy absolutely right but my tactics at times were idiotic.Alistair said:
I vowed to have nothing to do with the French election given I knew nothing about France. But that polling, that polling drew me in.AlastairMeeks said:I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.
Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.
Still, a profit's a profit.
And on that, I'm off again. Have a nice evening everyone.0 -
Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.0
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Mostly people talking up their book.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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You wally.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
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17%, 35%... third time's a charm for the Le Pens? 0
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Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
Run out the clock has he? Shame. I have no idea if he is guilty or not, but before his reputation went south in the last year, his smug attitude and the feting he received from many people always annoyed.ydoethur said:
I believe two of the charges have now expired due to Sweden's statute of limitations and the third expires soon.kle4 said:
The guy wants to be the persecuted hero so much, maybe he will finally decide to let himself be arrested and extradited, we can hope.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.
So before too long the only charge the police could make against him is jumping bail here, which I believe is not considered a serious matter.
Remember that UN bod who said he was being unlawfully detained?0 -
Oh yes! They were euphoric.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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Yup. Just like President Erdogan of Turkey. Strong and stable.Disraeli said:
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.0 -
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
They haven't got anyone to count the votes?0
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Well Chestnut and Moniker were iircsurbiton said:
Oh yes! They were euphoric.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.0 -
Actually in terms of valid ballots cast, I wouldn't be so sure about that. Looks like the second round vote may well end up looking much like ours.OllyT said:
Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
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Not 8 of 10 leavers on here though.AlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?
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surbiton said:
Oh yes! They were euphoric.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Yes someone please link, I want to see those error barsChameleon said:Does anyone have a live results page?
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I'm just waiting for May to pass an enabling act. Any day surely....surbiton said:
Yup. Just like President Erdogan of Turkey. Strong and stable.Disraeli said:
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government.0 -
Or 3 out of 10 Leavers in total expressed that opinion.....I'm not defending them, they're ridiculous, she's foul. As a Remain voting Tory I concur re the Whiskas.AlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.0 -
Didn't have you down as a Millwall fan.. just gone 2-1 upAlastairMeeks said:Hurrah for the striped shirts!
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Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
Touché!felix said:
Thankfully there was never any prospect of a party similar in Britain which could get 35% of the vote - altho Corbyn's Labour comes the closest.surbiton said:Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.
Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.0 -
Can someone clarify how the % votes are counted on the Betting markets? Does it exclude abstentions/spoilt ballots - ie. Macron/Le Pen adds up to 100%, or will the two party outcome be less than 100%?0
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I am glad Le Pen has lost. I'm not convinced Macron is going to be much good, but at least France doesn't have a FN president.0
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Another one who bit. Too easy!surbiton said:
Yup. Just like President Erdogan of Turkey. Strong and stable.Disraeli said:
The perils of PR - it increases the chances of getting into such a mess.chestnut said:
Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
Only a complete blackguard would want anything to do with it.
FPTP is best at producing strong and stable government. 0 -
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
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as I say I've got no accounting for scotland so the tories only gain 1 and, as has been stated elsewhere, nothing for greens both of which will have an impact here. but I've got a good stab.rcs1000 said:
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.spudgfsh said:I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative
2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat
3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19
on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
2. any better guesses on my numbers here?
3. what do I do about Scotland?
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
who knows it may work better than UNS in the end (it probably won't)0 -
Any results link on that one?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
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And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.AlsoIndigo said:
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
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Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
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Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.Pulpstar said:
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
Well that would depend - was the question how many supported her or how many thought her election was the best outcome for Britain, which doesn't necessarily mean they support her? I'm happy to say too many Leavers think both of those things, but they are different things.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.0 -
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My preference was Macron -> Fillon -> Hamon -> Melenchon -> Le Pen of the 5 main contenders but that just reflects my personal politics. I'd have voted Melenchon over Le Pen. Heck I'd vote Corbyn over Le Pen.surbiton said:
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.Pulpstar said:
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
Here you go ...foxinsoxuk said:
Any results link on that one?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
http://www.dw.com/en/exit-polls-show-victory-for-christian-democrats-in-schleswig-holstein/a-38744028
Merkel's trip to the US and the way Trump behaved have clearly provided a big boost to her.
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I'm still mad they didn't get a chance to break out the old 'Vote for the crook not the fascist' signs again.surbiton said:
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.Pulpstar said:
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
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0
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In round one the exit poll underestimated Le Pen by 0.7%, over estimated Macron by 0.01. 6s for 35-40 look like value on Betfair.0
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Indeed, me too.Pulpstar said:
My preference was Macron -> Fillon -> Hamon -> Melenchon -> Le Pen of the 5 main contenders but that just reflects my personal politics. I'd have voted Melenchon over Le Pen. Heck I'd vote Corbyn over Le Pen.surbiton said:
Yes, just like many voted for Chirac against father Le Pen.Pulpstar said:
Macron's support would have broke heavily to Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Abstentions on the left would have been far greater if the run-off had been between Fillon and Le Pen.Dadge said:
Nah. Macron's won by 30%. Le Pen couldn't've beaten any of the likely matchups.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
The only way she could possibly come close to winning would be by permanently dissociating herself from the FN. Maybe she'll try that next time?0 -
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
0
