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System · May 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How is history going to judge Mr. Corbyn?

With his party getting an absolute pasting in the local elections and all the pointers being to a CON landslide on June 8th I wonder quite how history is going to judge Labour’s leader, Mr. Corbyn.

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tlg86 · May 2017

First, like Jezza it would seem!

Philip_Thompson · May 2017

LOL the last one is the best.

AlastairMeeks · May 2017

A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.

kle4 · May 2017

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.

Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.

madasafish · May 2017

Second but 9th rate - better than Jezza.

kle4 · May 2017

SimonStClare said:

kle4 said:
Well well well. Well well well. I find myself a little stunned by the events of the past day, I must admit. Not that the LDs finding it harder going than hoped was completely unpredictable – as I and many had noted, even while thinking they would do well, if the Tory surge was indeed a real thing then it was clear they would suffer in some places – or indeed that Tory gains were unexpected, but the reality of what has occurred was beyond my expectations, especially locally, and I feel the need to try and sit back and assess.
A couple of things spring to mind, you failed to accept the polls could be accurate and put too much faith in Labour. You said you would reassess as the time got closer, you didn’t, instead you continued to play down events. Perhaps you are just overly cautious by nature.

That is certainly true, but the scale of the Labour losses was not what surprised me - they were a little more than I thought, but I expected them to do terribly, as most did. It was the LDs I put too much faith in, even though I had floated the possibility they would struggle more than most predictions thought.

I think it was the Tory surge I underestimated - the increased turnout deeply surprises me.

kle4 · May 2017

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.

bigjohnowls · May 2017

How will history judge Nick Clegg?

Black_Rook · May 2017

Q. I wonder how history will judge Mr. Corbyn?

A. I'm not sure it'll bother

Fantastic!

dyedwoolie · May 2017

History lies in the future, but it's already forgotten him

Baskerville · May 2017

FPT
For what it's worth, some advice for the Labour Party from a former Tory spin doctor.
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn

JosiasJessop · May 2017

As Sideshow Bob, with the electorate as rakes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WZLJpMOxS4

kle4 · May 2017

With his party getting an absolute pasting in the local elections

Cannot be right, I read Corbyn said they were closing the gap.

bigjohnowls said:
How will history judge Nick Clegg?

Perhaps more kindly than the voters, perhaps not, but while the scale of the LD drop was worse than Lab's will be, the situations are not the same - Lab are the main opposition, LDs are a minor party. Nor would any equivalence distract from that one is happening now, that's why the question is coming up.

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

As a breath of fresh air.

SquareRoot · May 2017

I see tim isn't enthusiastic

SandraM · May 2017

I think that the most damning judgement will be on those in the Labour Party who nominated him.

CommanderShepard · May 2017

Andy Street winning is a big surprise to me. I thought that the last of Brownian Blitzkrieg would let the Pushkin win, but the paradigm of the 20th Century is going to hold true in the 21st.

kle4 · May 2017

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.
But adjusted for the new boundaries, the SNP lost seven. Which is why all the official stats have them 7 down.

Of course, they remain in a dominant position - but they are not quite as hegemonic as they were. The pendulum has begun to swing, as it always swings, even for a party which seemed to defy political gravity, for so long.

Sturgeon's popularity has waned significantly, the SNP's record, after so long in office, is now being critically scrutinised. I suspect they will do quite a lot worse in Holyrood in 2021. Perhaps a modest plurality, meaning they lead a weak minority government. Which means - probably - no indyref2.

Oh I hope so. I hope desire for Indy recedes significantly. But like you say, they are still in a dominant position - my celebrations will forever remain muted.

JackW · May 2017

bigjohnowls said:
How will history judge Nick Clegg?

As leader of a third party that went into government, whereas Jezza seems to want to be a leader of a third party.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.

dyedwoolie · May 2017

Labour brought all this on themselves, they are the ones that abandoned the WWC, they are the ones that felt the need to nurture their runts and gift Corbyn a place on the ballot, they are the ones that sneered at flags and van drivers and workers and cultivated a disgusting sect within themselves of false moral superiority. They betrayed the country and now the country, as led by the Scots before, will pay them back in triplicate.
Good riddance, may an earthy, robust centre left alliance spring from the ashes

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

SquareRoot said:
I see tim isn't enthusiastic

compared to his views on McDonnell, he's a big fan of Jezza

surbiton · May 2017

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.

I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?

RobbieBox · May 2017

Very much maligned and misunderstood, but fundamentally a man totally unsuited to the office that in five weeks time, he will be seeking.
John Major once said 'The electorate are always right'

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

Please don't ruin my weekend Spurs.

SquareRoot · May 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:

SquareRoot said:
I see tim isn't enthusiastic
compared to his views on McDonnell, he's a big fan of Jezza

It must be tough for a Blairite..

kle4 · May 2017

glw said:

kle4 said:
Do these idiots realise that isn't helping? OK, I'm an outsider, they don't have to listen to the likes of me, but surely basic common sense says certain tactics, like portraying an easy win as a triumph against the evil government, don't work once you pass a certain point 'No mean feat' to win in Liverpool, really? He might as well spit in the interviewers face or drop trouser on camera that shows so little respect.
Listening to the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and Burgon now it seems like they aren't spinning, or even lying, there's a collective denial of what is actually happening. They really don't believe the polls, or it seems the local election results, they really do believe it's one more push to victory in the general election, perhaps as part of a coalition. They think the public will see and hear Corbyn over the next few weeks and have a change of heart.

That or they have all gone raving mad.

I get not believing polls, I get finding some solace in the better results in a bad night. I get putting a brace face on a bad situation. What they are doing is so far beyond that.

Maybe there still won't be as massive a majority as seems, but if not it will be down to Tory missteps somehow (or the overspending thing making more of an impact than I think), not Labour.

ydoethur said:

Nemtynakht said:

SeanT said:
Burgon on C4 News: "It's no mean feat for Labour to win in Liverpool"

That's what he said. And perhaps he's right in present circumstances.
Typical straw man arguments from Labour. John McDonnell said this morning that they didn't get totally wiped out like 'some' had been predicting. I've no idea who these 'some' are.
It's proof that John McDonnell reads Political Betting!!! Proof, I tell you!

Then I say to John: WTF are you doing? Do you believe the stuff you say?

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

RobbieBox said:
Very much maligned and misunderstood, but fundamentally a man totally unsuited to the office that in five weeks time, he will be seeking.
John Major once said 'The electorate are always right'

Ebeneezer Goode, He's Ebeneezer Goode.

kle4 · May 2017

I imagine the calls for a progressive alliance will grow ever louder, but the arguments against it remain the same as they ever were. Even if the Tories are the biggest enemy, and even if some other parties are more likely allies, that you are different parties and not wings of the same party means you are still enemies too.

CommanderShepard · May 2017

Just for Morris Dancer- Today has been March 28 1461 and May's army has secured an important bridge during a small skirmish between the two forces. Thus setting the scene for the bloodiest battle the English have ever fought.

Sean_F · May 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.

Ha, ha, ha!

Malmesbury · May 2017

I think it is very rude, calling him the Pound Shop Michael Foot.

My local Pound Shop is full of useful household items, at (generally) a good price.

Corbyn is no bargain....

kle4 · May 2017

surbiton said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly nigh for them.
I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?

Of course not, that's why I'm cautious despite at least one unionist party moving forward lately (mostly at the expense of another one).

SimonStClare · May 2017

" I'm not sure it'll bother" - Classic comment by Alex Hurlet.

MonikerDiCanio · May 2017

One for the dustbin.

ThomasNashe · May 2017

I used to have some respect for him as a good constituency MP. Now I utterly despise him.

kle4 · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.

So he's going to be with us for years to come after his big defeat? Gawds.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
So he's going to be with us for years to come after his big defeat? Gawds.

Like a persistent STD

justin124 · May 2017

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.

Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!

Sean_F · May 2017

kle4 said:

surbiton said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly nigh for them.
I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?
Of course not, that's why I'm cautious despite at least one unionist party moving forward lately (mostly at the expense of another one).

It's good for Unionists that Labour remain a viable party in Scotland. Left wing Unionists still have people they can vote for.

surbiton · May 2017

SeanT said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.
I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?

We expect them to gently decline from a position of unprecedented dominance. Which is what is happening.

They are the largest party in 17 Scottish councils including Glasgow.

Philip_Thompson · May 2017

SeanT said:

surbiton said:
I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?
We expect them to gently decline from a position of unprecedented dominance. Which is what is happening.

The expectations management was that the SNP were going to gain seats this time not lose them.

To paraphrase, success equals reality minus expectations. The SNP failed to meet expectations, hence they're viewed as failing.

kle4 · May 2017

RobbieBox said:
Very much maligned and misunderstood, but fundamentally a man totally unsuited to the office that in five weeks time, he will be seeking.
John Major once said 'The electorate are always right'

It's possible he's maligned because is understood only too well, but as you suggest even if it is due to misunderstanding he is unsuited to the office he seeks. As I once lamented, the whinging from Corbyn and his allies about not being allowed to lead, by the media, by blairites, is even if true just more of a condemnation of his tenure as leader, since he's not up to the challenges. Was anyone? A tougher question, but he certainly is not.

It actually makes me angry.

That the LDs are going nowhere doesn't help - I'm not opposed to Tories on principle, though I don't think big majorities lead to good governance nor am I a fan of May, and I want other parties to be strong right now.

MTimT · May 2017

Good to see tim responding to OGH's tweeted question. To the point, as usual. tim, come back.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

I remember the days when Mike was criticised for doing a thread using a load of embedded tweets as a thread header.

MarkHopkins · May 2017

Shortly there will be a future where Corbyn is forgotten.

Fysics_Teacher · May 2017

CommanderShepard said:
Just for Morris Dancer- Today has been March 28 1461 and May's army has secured an important bridge during a small skirmish between the two forces. Thus setting the scene for the bloodiest battle the English have ever fought.

Towton?

kle4 · May 2017

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

surbiton said:

surbiton said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly nigh for them.
I am not sure what Unionists expect the SNP to do ? They have dominated Scottish politics for a decade and yet they are still the largest party by miles.

Yes, the Tories won a lot of seats. But the SNP has not lost from a very high base.

What do you expect them to do ? Win every seat ?
Of course not, that's why I'm cautious despite at least one unionist party moving forward lately (mostly at the expense of another one).
It's good for Unionists that Labour remain a viable party in Scotland. Left wing Unionists still have people they can vote for.

Ideally I'd like all the Unionist parties in Scotland to do well.

matt · May 2017

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!

We live in the world as it is, not as we want to be.

Counterfactuals rarely add insight, just prejudice.

CommanderShepard · May 2017

Fysics_Teacher said:

CommanderShepard said:
Just for Morris Dancer- Today has been March 28 1461 and May's army has secured an important bridge during a small skirmish between the two forces. Thus setting the scene for the bloodiest battle the English have ever fought.
Towton?

Yep. When the rivers ran red with red rose blood.

Philip_Thompson · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember the days when Mike was criticised for doing a thread using a load of embedded tweets as a thread header.

I think he was criticised for quoting something like 21 Tweets by the same person, something that would be better to write in a single post. Not for quoting various Tweets all by different people which has commonly been done.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

justin124 · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

Goodness me - how pathetic is that! A 2% drop is a collapse?

ThomasNashe · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

Needs the Labour -2% to look a lot bigger. He's obviously new to this game.

kle4 · May 2017

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425
Goodness me - how pathetic is that! A 2% drop is a collapse?

Could have been worse - could have had a Labour bar with the seat numbers loss, while the LD bar remained a vote share rise.

madasafish · May 2017

CommanderShepard said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

CommanderShepard said:
Just for Morris Dancer- Today has been March 28 1461 and May's army has secured an important bridge during a small skirmish between the two forces. Thus setting the scene for the bloodiest battle the English have ever fought.
Towton?
Yep. When the rivers ran red with red rose blood.

But within a generation, it was irrelevant as the losers eventually triumphed iirc.

Fysics_Teacher · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember the days when Mike was criticised for doing a thread using a load of embedded tweets as a thread header.

Isn't that like saying "I remember when Mike was criticised for doing a thread using a load of words as a thread header"? What is important is the quality and relevance of the tweets, not that they are tweets.

MarkHopkins · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

That only shows the vote share for local elections, not general elections.

But they knew that.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!

No, he couldn't.

No, it wouldn't (because it wouldn't have happened).

CommanderShepard · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.

He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.

numbertwelve · May 2017

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!

I've said it before, but I cannot see any constitutional reason why that would have happened.

Callaghan did not hand over to Thatcher after he lost the no-confidence vote in 1979 and nothing in the FTPA suggests, to me, there would be any difference.

justin124 · May 2017

matt said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!
We live in the world as it is, not as we want to be.

Counterfactuals rarely add insight, just prejudice.

It is an entirely reasonable basis on which to attack Corbyn from a non-Tory perspective! His conduct can fairly be described to have been malevolent.

JackW · May 2017

MarkHopkins said:

Shortly there will be a future where Corbyn is forgotten.

Yesterday.

HurstLlama · May 2017

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.
But adjusted for the new boundaries, the SNP lost seven. Which is why all the official stats have them 7 down.

Of course, they remain in a dominant position - but they are not quite as hegemonic as they were. The pendulum has begun to swing, as it always swings, even for a party which seemed to defy political gravity, for so long.

Sturgeon's popularity has waned significantly, the SNP's record, after so long in office, is now being critically scrutinised. I suspect they will do quite a lot worse in Holyrood in 2021. Perhaps a modest plurality, meaning they lead a weak minority government. Which means - probably - no indyref2.
Oh I hope so. I hope desire for Indy recedes significantly. But like you say, they are still in a dominant position - my celebrations will forever remain muted.
There is a big internal battle going on in the Nats, as to whether they should push for indyref now. Sturgeon's instinct is to say No, and she's right, electorally - banging on about indy has energised the SCONES and made Unionists vote tactically (as we see).

But Salmond fears that indyref 2 will recede over the horizon, maybe 10-15 years down the line, maybe 30, so they should go for it now, even if it is very risky. So with his comments in London he bounced Sturgeon into saying Yes this election is about indy, against her better judgement.

I wonder if, in her quieter moments, Sturgeon would rather like Salmond to lose his Westminster seat.

Has Salmond become that most dangerous of politicians - an old man in a hurry? Such men, through out history have buggered things up by pushing too hard to move things too fast solely to satisfy their vanity before they leave the stage. Just look at the Euro for a modern example.

kle4 · May 2017

Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.

Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.

Sandpit · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

Has there even been one without either a logarithmic scale or a non-zero y-axis?

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2017

"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

kle4 said:
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.

Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.

IDS on the radio talking about people being willing to vote for Labour in Manchester and Liverpool meant there was a lot still to do was 'quite remarkable'... the effort to keep a lid on it is impressive... even from a gopher like him

Fat_Steve · May 2017

Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.

Fysics_Teacher · May 2017

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.

Who is Warwick?

kle4 · May 2017

I must say I find Guido's 'daily campaign report' pretty balanced, as these things go. I genuinely miss the messages of a party the Green's in a day, but they put them up in a mostly fair summary (even if other stories are with whatever slant they want).

Scrapheap_as_was · May 2017

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember the days when Mike was criticised for doing a thread using a load of embedded tweets as a thread header.
I think he was criticised for quoting something like 21 Tweets by the same person, something that would be better to write in a single post. Not for quoting various Tweets all by different people which has commonly been done.

correct

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

RobbieBox said:
Very much maligned and misunderstood

Ah, that gives me an idea what to sing at karaoke tonight.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2017

kle4 said:
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.

Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.

I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.

Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.

CommanderShepard · May 2017

Fysics_Teacher said:

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.
Who is Warwick?

Osborne

peterbriffa · May 2017

The best Prime Minster we never had.

Fysics_Teacher · May 2017

matt said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)

Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"

https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!
We live in the world as it is, not as we want to be.

Counterfactuals rarely add insight, just prejudice.

It's one of the big differences between the hard sciences and the social ones: in physics and the like you want to re-do the experiment lots of times to see what happens if you change something. Much harder to do with political decisions.

HurstLlama · May 2017

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.

Excellent. Mr. Shepard, a much better analogy. Mind you Henry VI did, if memory serves, found a couple of university colleges and a school so he did some good.

MarkHopkins · May 2017

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/860561892099731457

Sean_F · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.

Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.

Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.

I don't know about that, but a centre left party will surely win again.

SandyRentool · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
An out of scale Lib Dem bar chart?

I am shocked

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/860512449333735425

Never mind the bars, that is one big scary pigeon!

williamglenn · May 2017

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.
But adjusted for the new boundaries, the SNP lost seven. Which is why all the official stats have them 7 down.

Of course, they remain in a dominant position - but they are not quite as hegemonic as they were. The pendulum has begun to swing, as it always swings, even for a party which seemed to defy political gravity, for so long.

Sturgeon's popularity has waned significantly, the SNP's record, after so long in office, is now being critically scrutinised. I suspect they will do quite a lot worse in Holyrood in 2021. Perhaps a modest plurality, meaning they lead a weak minority government. Which means - probably - no indyref2.
Oh I hope so. I hope desire for Indy recedes significantly. But like you say, they are still in a dominant position - my celebrations will forever remain muted.
There is a big internal battle going on in the Nats, as to whether they should push for indyref now. Sturgeon's instinct is to say No, and she's right, electorally - banging on about indy has energised the SCONES and made Unionists vote tactically (as we see).

But Salmond fears that indyref 2 will recede over the horizon, maybe 10-15 years down the line, maybe 30, so they should go for it now, even if it is very risky. So with his comments in London he bounced Sturgeon into saying Yes this election is about indy, against her better judgement.

I wonder if, in her quieter moments, Sturgeon would rather like Salmond to lose his Westminster seat.
Has Salmond become that most dangerous of politicians - an old man in a hurry? Such men, through out history have buggered things up by pushing too hard to move things too fast solely to satisfy their vanity before they leave the stage. Just look at the Euro for a modern example.
Yes, I think that is exactly what he is.

Perhaps the biggest tactical mistake in pushing it before May had put all her cards on the table is that in helping to consolidate the unionist vote it will deter European politicians from wanting to stir the pot. If they had let the Brexit negotiations play out for a bit before making the announcement they could have impacted the narrative, but it seems from all accounts that Sturgeon was forced into trying to upstage the Article 50 declaration.

Sean_F · May 2017

HurstLlama said:

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.
Excellent. Mr. Shepard, a much better analogy. Mind you Henry VI did, if memory serves, found a couple of university colleges and a school so he did some good.

How about Charles VI of France, who was bonkers and presided over catastrophic defeats at English hands?

kle4 · May 2017

Fat_Steve said:
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.

But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.

Artist · May 2017

If Labour's vote holds up (200 seats+) and he resigns after the election, he can leave with a bit of dignity. He can say he tried a different approach which just didn't work.

kle4 · May 2017

peterbriffa said:
The best Prime Minster we never had.

Hey, there's still time for him to turn things around.

MonikerDiCanio · May 2017

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

another_richard said:
I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.
Except SNP had 425 councllors in 2012 and they have 431 today, so...

The end is not exactly night for them.
But adjusted for the new boundaries, the SNP lost seven. Which is why all the official stats have them 7 down.

Of course, they remain in a dominant position - but they are not quite as hegemonic as they were. The pendulum has begun to swing, as it always swings, even for a party which seemed to defy political gravity, for so long.

Sturgeon's popularity has waned significantly, the SNP's record, after so long in office, is now being critically scrutinised. I suspect they will do quite a lot worse in Holyrood in 2021. Perhaps a modest plurality, meaning they lead a weak minority government. Which means - probably - no indyref2.
Oh I hope so. I hope desire for Indy recedes significantly. But like you say, they are still in a dominant position - my celebrations will forever remain muted.
There is a big internal battle going on in the Nats, as to whether they should push for indyref now. Sturgeon's instinct is to say No, and she's right, electorally - banging on about indy has energised the SCONES and made Unionists vote tactically (as we see).

But Salmond fears that indyref 2 will recede over the horizon, maybe 10-15 years down the line, maybe 30, so they should go for it now, even if it is very risky. So with his comments in London he bounced Sturgeon into saying Yes this election is about indy, against her better judgement.

I wonder if, in her quieter moments, Sturgeon would rather like Salmond to lose his Westminster seat.
Has Salmond become that most dangerous of politicians - an old man in a hurry? Such men, through out history have buggered things up by pushing too hard to move things too fast solely to satisfy their vanity before they leave the stage. Just look at the Euro for a modern example.

Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.

nunu · May 2017

Labour's structural problem: It's not just a crap leader.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_trade_union_membership.png

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/20/self-employment-uk-highest-level

JackW · May 2017

Fysics_Teacher said:

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.
Who is Warwick?

Dionne .... "Walk On By" Jezza

kle4 · May 2017

Artist said:
If Labour's vote holds up (200 seats+) and he resigns after the election, he can leave with a bit of dignity. He can say he tried a different approach which just didn't work.

Holding 200 won't be easy, and I always overestimate Labour's chances. If he manages that, I believe the talk he won't resign, since his percentage will be not that much worse or even the same as other recent Lab leaders, and he'll be able to say it was the lack of unity that was the problem.

dr_spyn · May 2017

Where's Burnham?

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/860570790072397824

Fysics_Teacher · May 2017

HurstLlama said:

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.
Excellent. Mr. Shepard, a much better analogy. Mind you Henry VI did, if memory serves, found a couple of university colleges and a school so he did some good.

I'm not sure how well Corbyn would take being told that he needs to found a new Eton to be judged as well by history as a mad king who lost a blody civil war.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2017

Got to love faisal islam...tories done too well (for their own good / will hark them at the GE).

AndyJS · May 2017

edit

dyingswan · May 2017

A sincere but naive Socialist. who never grew up. By chance he inherited a job that was well beyond his ability and intellect. Completely unsuited to the enormous task that he faced he dragged his party down with him to a defeat of historic proportions.

ydoethur · May 2017

madasafish said:

CommanderShepard said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

CommanderShepard said:
Just for Morris Dancer- Today has been March 28 1461 and May's army has secured an important bridge during a small skirmish between the two forces. Thus setting the scene for the bloodiest battle the English have ever fought.
Towton?
Yep. When the rivers ran red with red rose blood.
But within a generation, it was irrelevant as the losers eventually triumphed iirc.

The last of the losers - the Earl of Richmond - married the daughter of the winner to become a 'unity' candidate for the throne.

I do not think such a result would be remotely possible between the Tories and Labour. Stoke Field and Perkin Warbeck would be a teddy bears' picnic by comparison to what would follow.

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
History will judge him as the modern day Hannibal Barca.

Won a few early battles against rubbish opponents, then received the mother of all shellackings that lost the war.
He is not Hannibal he is Henry VI - quiet mad and unfit to govern and propped up by a circle of acolytes and courtiers. Diane Abbot is Margaret of Anjou and Mcdonnell is the Duke of Somerset.

Henry VI founded seats of learning and was a faithful husband.

Margaret d'Anjou was vicious but sane and highly intelligent.

The Duke of Somerset was venal and as thick as two short planks but was brave and has a high sense of duty.

Your comments are grossly unfair to the Lancastrians.

williamglenn · May 2017

dr_spyn said:
Where's Burnham?

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/860570883097853956

Beverley_C · May 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.

Yes, but by then post-Brexit inflation will make a cup of coffee about £500bn so it will be no worse than buying the LDs a round at Starbucks

maaarsh · May 2017

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.

Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.

Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.

But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.

The pendulum doesn't always swing on all issues - there are plenty of issues where a party can only return from the wilderness when they accept the new concensus and cease trying to change it (nationalising the means of production, minimum wage).

Depending on the next few years maintaining Brexit will either be an ongoing battle or the settled mainstream view and part of the minimum offering for a party to be a credible government.

Philip_Thompson · May 2017

dr_spyn said:
Where's Burnham?

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/860570790072397824

It was funny watching Sky News when they told Burnham that Corbyn was on his way. You.could see on his face Burnham went from celebrating to wanting to go away and be nowhere near that.

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