Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
23%.
I'll just roll that number about for a bit.
'There is only one winner today'
The SNP getting 10% less than Yes got and 15% less than they got at the 2015 general election is certainly not a great omen for the general election next month, they may still be ahead but they are in decline
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
What about 1931 (which was actually their best ever electoral performance in terms of votes and seats) and 1959?
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
The economy and immigration controls are two entirely different issues.
The era of uncontrolled immigration has also been the worst for economic performance.
Countries don't get rich by going 'all-in' on the hand wash car industry.
I think some serious cherry picking is needed to support that hypothesis. Do we or do we not have both record employment and record net migration?
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
Not at all convinced that all of these shares will rise in lockstep. Would expect SNP and Conservative votes to go up considerably more than the Labour share. Simple reason: the SNP are, crudely put, strongest in the old Labour heartland and weakest (although, granted, such weakness is merely relative) in more affluent and rural areas. In other words, most or all of the realistic potential gains for Unionist parties are in seats where the main challenger to the SNP is either Conservative or Liberal Democrat.
If there's a large amount of Unionist tactical voting then it will disproportionately benefit Con & LD candidates and ought therefore to result in the Labour vote being disproportionately squeezed.
There is no point in Con & LD voters defecting to back Labour in the vast majority of its targets, as Labour is so very far behind that it has no realistic chance of winning them.
Most of the independents are also outside the Central Belt and in areas that are much more favourable for the non-Labour parties (the Borders, Dumfries & Galloway, the north east, Highlands etc). So you would not expect the independent vote to break for Labour.
I don't know who they will break for. In Dumfries & Galloway a lot of their vote came from traditionally Conservative leaning areas but there were exceptions and I don't know what the pattern is over the rest of the country.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
In 1983, Birmingham was a comfortable hold for the Tories.
In 1983 the Tories never won Walsall as Andy Street did
That's right Div, whistle to keep your spirits up...
@AnasSarwar: Should compare Glasgow result to last 2 years. 2015 SNP got 56%. 2016 SNP got 54%. 2017 SNP get ~40%. 1 in 4 votes lost in a year.
The last resort of the diddy, comparing different types of elections.
If being reduced to being a fellow traveller of Anas and UKIP isn't enough, perhaps this will temporarliy restrain your self pleasuring excitement at coming a mediocre second (& when I say coming...). It's for your own good.
'Scott_P Posts: 21,352 June 25
williamglenn said: At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it'
'Scott_P Posts: 21,367 June 25
JackW said:
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
Taking a straight face value Baxtering of locals is utterly ridiculous
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
Well, Norway's establishment wants to go into the EU but it seems it can't get it past a referendum.
If you wanted to go back in you'd have to get a referendum and that I suspect would be hard to win.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
If En Marche get a majority, that would be more sensational than Macron winning the presidency. LR, the Parti de Gauche, the Socialist Party, and the National Front will all get a lot of seats. In the elections to the national assembly, 12.5% gets you through to the second round. It would be nice if the two left-wing parties could come to an arrangement. I don't think En Marche and LR will come to one.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
Another embarrassing defeat for the Le Pen dynasty looms
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
Today's results are consistent with the Conservatives getting above 400 seats next month. A few areas of enduring Labour support were identified but far more areas of weakness were confirmed.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
Another embarrassing defeat for the Le Pen dynasty looms
Going from 18% to 37%+ in 15 years is a defeat but not an embarrassing one, if they saw the same increase in another 15 years they would have over 50%
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
Another embarrassing defeat for the Le Pen dynasty looms
Going from 18% to 37%+ in 15 years is a defeat but not an embarrassing one, if they saw the same increase in another 15 years they would have over 50%
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Why would you conflate Aberdeen South (part of the Aberdeen Council area) with Aberdeenshire council?
the Le Pen 35-40 market has rightly tightened, but I am more bullish on Macron. The polls have moved in his favour in recent days, he won the head to head, and undecideds are much more likely to break for him. He is simply the far better candidate.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
If En Marche get a majority, that would be more sensational than Macron winning the presidency. LR, the Parti de Gauche, the Socialist Party, and the National Front will all get a lot of seats. In the elections to the national assembly, 12.5% gets you through to the second round. It would be nice if the two left-wing parties could come to an arrangement. I don't think En Marche and LR will come to one.
They won't get a majority though they may come first ahead of LRs with the FN and PS fighting for third
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
From a betting standpoint that would suit me very nicely. The only thing that could be a better result for me currently of my open book would be if the LDs then went on to go sub 10 seats at the GE.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
Agreed.
Yes, the legislative elections is the interesting contest now, the presidential election is all but decided
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
The economy and immigration controls are two entirely different issues.
The era of uncontrolled immigration has also been the worst for economic performance.
Countries don't get rich by going 'all-in' on the hand wash car industry.
I think some serious cherry picking is needed to support that hypothesis. Do we or do we not have both record employment and record net migration?
We also have nearly two trillion quid of government debt.
Anyone can create jobs - you just borrow money and give it to people to spend.
But you don't get rich that way - you get rich by creating more wealth than you consume.
Now perhaps you like to take a guess at how long ago Britain had a current account surplus ?
And then you might like to consider whether low skilled, low productivity workers are creating more wealth than they consume. And whether it is or isn't a good idea to have unlimited immigration of yet more low skilled, low productivity workers.
the Le Pen 35-40 market has rightly tightened, but I am more bullish on Macron. The polls have moved in his favour in recent days, he won the head to head, and undecideds are much more likely to break for him. He is simply the far better candidate.
Cover the 30-35% band IMO.
I'm hoping that it drifts slightly then may put a bit of cover in it to limit losses.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
Today's results are consistent with the Conservatives getting above 400 seats next month. A few areas of enduring Labour support were identified but far more areas of weakness were confirmed.
Labour are going to get shellacked - name me one good reason for voting for them.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Indeed in the East Renfrewshire council area (which is I believe the same boundaries as the seat) the Tories came out ahead in seats and about 14% ahead in first preference votes (38% Conservative to 24% SNP).
I think Edinburgh South West is probably a more realistic target than the other three, albeit a bit of a stretch as they didn't gain the Pentlands seat last year.
In Aberdeenshire, all the Tory candidates that stood this year were elected, which suggests that they would have won more if they had stood more. I agree that Aberdeen South is a good target, although I think that it is within the Aberdeen City boundaries. However, on some of the swings we have seen, Banff and Buchan, and (almost unbelievably) Gordon might be reasonably close. In the latter, though, there is the difficulty of the Lib Dems being placed ahead of the Tories, not to mention behind Salmond...
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Why would you conflate Aberdeen South (part of the Aberdeen Council area) with Aberdeenshire council?
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
From a betting standpoint that would suit me very nicely. The only thing that could be a better result for me currently of my open book would be if the LDs then went on to go sub 10 seats at the GE.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
The Conservatives are the largest party in East Renfrewshire now:
Disclosure: the Conservative candidate, Paul Masterton, is a colleague of mine (indeed, in the Glasgow office of the pensions team in which I am one of the partners).
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
What about 1931 (which was actually their best ever electoral performance in terms of votes and seats) and 1959?
I don't think Labour will hit 52 seats.
I should have added 1959, although Labour will do worse.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
Today's results are consistent with the Conservatives getting above 400 seats next month. A few areas of enduring Labour support were identified but far more areas of weakness were confirmed.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
In 1983 the Lab vote was very inefficient. In 83 Maggie decreased her vote share from 79 but substantially increased her majority.
In 1983 Foot got 27%, Corbyn's total today....27%
You have not allowed for Scotland. The SNP were nowhere in 83. Add 4% to Labour to give 31%ish for calculations of the opposition. Labour are not really competing for seats anymore.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Why would you conflate Aberdeen South (part of the Aberdeen Council area) with Aberdeenshire council?
It is, funnily enough, on the southern perimeter of Aberdeen and southern Aberdeenshire and Kincardine are both looking good for the Tories. They didn't do badly in Aberdeen itself but I struggled to find a map which indicated where the gains are.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham is to Manchester as Khan is to London. A decent Labour candidate in a Labour town.
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
The economy and immigration controls are two entirely different issues.
The era of uncontrolled immigration has also been the worst for economic performance.
Countries don't get rich by going 'all-in' on the hand wash car industry.
I think some serious cherry picking is needed to support that hypothesis. Do we or do we not have both record employment and record net migration?
We do. Also record house prices, record pricing out of the young out of housing, record waits at A&E despite the NHS doing much more than everyone else as well as a record in work benefits bill. Whats not to like eh? Particularly if you like cheap nannies and cleaners.
the Le Pen 35-40 market has rightly tightened, but I am more bullish on Macron. The polls have moved in his favour in recent days, he won the head to head, and undecideds are much more likely to break for him. He is simply the far better candidate.
Cover the 30-35% band IMO.
92% of Le Pen voters are now certain to vote that way and 95% of Macron voters, if you are still undecided you will probably stay at home
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
From a betting standpoint that would suit me very nicely. The only thing that could be a better result for me currently of my open book would be if the LDs then went on to go sub 10 seats at the GE.
I think the LDs will get 10-20
Agreed. Will make a decent profit on that as well (not as nice though).
A number of weeks ago I mentioned how the French Intelligence services occasionally takes a hand in elections and notably Fillon and Le Pen perhaps had their positions blackened by corruption allegations.
Wikileaks stuff on Macron is predictable, the French authorities knew about this possibility of running interference.
Unlike elsewhere, they will not take it lying down if they have a problem with it.
9GB of material! Including a purported huge new life assurance policy for Macron, taken out in March 2017. What are Brigitte's Jesuit friends up to?
Serious question: did Macron and his wife marry in church? Pope Francis, also a Jesuit, has been accused of not having been as anti-Le Pen as some would have expected.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
The Conservatives are the largest party in East Renfrewshire now:
Disclosure: the Conservative candidate, Paul Masterton, is a colleague of mine (indeed, in the Glasgow office of the pensions team in which I am one of the partners).
I've never understood why Renfrewshire is not called West Renfrewshire to differentiate it from East Renfrewshire.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
Indeed, in the 1987 locals Thatcher got 38% but she got 43% in the general
In 1983 the Lab vote was very inefficient. In 83 Maggie decreased her vote share from 79 but substantially increased her majority.
In 1983 Foot got 27%, Corbyn's total today....27%
You have not allowed for Scotland. The SNP were nowhere in 83. Add 4% to Labour to give 31%ish for calculations of the opposition. Labour are not really competing for seats anymore.
The Tories got 10 seats in Scotland in 1987 and on today's local polls will not be far off that next month north of the border and Andy Street won areas of the Midlands even Thatcher did not carry back then
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
The Conservatives are the largest party in East Renfrewshire now:
Disclosure: the Conservative candidate, Paul Masterton, is a colleague of mine (indeed, in the Glasgow office of the pensions team in which I am one of the partners).
I've never understood why Renfrewshire is not called West Renfrewshire to differentiate it from East Renfrewshire.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
The Conservatives are the largest party in East Renfrewshire now:
Disclosure: the Conservative candidate, Paul Masterton, is a colleague of mine (indeed, in the Glasgow office of the pensions team in which I am one of the partners).
Have you asked him if he would make the ultimate, tactical sacrifice for the cause if required?
I'm quite nervous for the French election results. This will be my first big betting event, with potential for both significant upside & downside (only if the polls are +-5% out though).
The straw drawing in South Blyth to decide the last ward between Con and LD. If the Con had won it, they would have got overall control. They will rule it anyway though
I actually think Corbyn knows the game is up. The worry for Labour and anyone who thinks we need a semblance of opposition, is that McDonnell thinks the problem is that Labour have the right 'policies' but that the media are not giving them a fair hearing.
I heard Barry Gardiner (I think) on the today program talking about the school dinners announcement. The 'policy' amounted to just that - one sentence. How will it work asked the sympathetic host? No idea about the details came the reply.
What the hard left need to realise is the public won't be fooled by vacuous platitudes. They expect someone asking to be their Governemnt to have their detailed balanced, costed policy platform. I actually can't believe what I've heard so far. You would think that the 30 years in the wilderness would have alllowed them to come up with a program at least.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham is to Manchester as Khan is to London. A decent Labour candidate in a Labour town.
We've taken the piss out of him alot here, and he may well have been heading to defeat nationally against May - but it'd have been a respectable Ed Miliband size defeat.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham is to Manchester as Khan is to London. A decent Labour candidate in a Labour town.
A number of weeks ago I mentioned how the French Intelligence services occasionally takes a hand in elections and notably Fillon and Le Pen perhaps had their positions blackened by corruption allegations.
Wikileaks stuff on Macron is predictable, the French authorities knew about this possibility of running interference.
Unlike elsewhere, they will not take it lying down if they have a problem with it.
9GB of material! Including a purported huge new life assurance policy for Macron, taken out in March 2017. What are Brigitte's Jesuit friends up to?
Serious question: did Macron and his wife marry in church? Pope Francis, also a Jesuit, has been accused of not having been as anti-Le Pen as some would have expected.
I remember all those, largely leftist, idiots who went around praising Wikileaks for its fearless shining of light against the corrupt elites.
Not so f**king great now are they. All been taken for a ride the guillable mugs.
the Le Pen 35-40 market has rightly tightened, but I am more bullish on Macron. The polls have moved in his favour in recent days, he won the head to head, and undecideds are much more likely to break for him. He is simply the far better candidate.
Cover the 30-35% band IMO.
I'm hoping that it drifts slightly then may put a bit of cover in it to limit losses.
A Le Pen leaning areas tend to report first, before Pasis etc pulls Macron up, expect the bands to become better value, if the same pattern is followed as 2 weeks ago.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Indeed in the East Renfrewshire council area (which is I believe the same boundaries as the seat) the Tories came out ahead in seats and about 14% ahead in first preference votes (38% Conservative to 24% SNP).
I think Edinburgh South West is probably a more realistic target than the other three, albeit a bit of a stretch as they didn't gain the Pentlands seat last year.
In Aberdeenshire, all the Tory candidates that stood this year were elected, which suggests that they would have won more if they had stood more. I agree that Aberdeen South is a good target, although I think that it is within the Aberdeen City boundaries. However, on some of the swings we have seen, Banff and Buchan, and (almost unbelievably) Gordon might be reasonably close. In the latter, though, there is the difficulty of the Lib Dems being placed ahead of the Tories, not to mention behind Salmond...
East Renfrewshire is pretty much up there with the top 4. It would be a surprise if it didn't fall now. In Banff and Buchan the SNP got 60% last time around. Surely a stretch too far. In Gordon I think the Tories will do well to come second.
A number of weeks ago I mentioned how the French Intelligence services occasionally takes a hand in elections and notably Fillon and Le Pen perhaps had their positions blackened by corruption allegations.
Wikileaks stuff on Macron is predictable, the French authorities knew about this possibility of running interference.
Unlike elsewhere, they will not take it lying down if they have a problem with it.
9GB of material! Including a purported huge new life assurance policy for Macron, taken out in March 2017. What are Brigitte's Jesuit friends up to?
Serious question: did Macron and his wife marry in church? Pope Francis, also a Jesuit, has been accused of not having been as anti-Le Pen as some would have expected.
I remember all those, largely leftist, idiots who went around praising Wikileaks for its fearless shining of light against the corrupt elites.
Not so f**king great now are they. All been taken for a ride the guillable mugs.
I love the way that wikileaks are trying to suggest that the leak has been timed to provide an excuse to put pressure on Russia. What a laughable prebuttal!
It will be. The EU are currently making some ridiculous demands which make any sort of a deal impossible. There biggest red line seems to be leaving the EU must make us poorer by there actions rather than being an opinion.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Edinburgh South West will probably go Tory based on today's council results. Edinburgh South is certainly a possibility, but my hunch is Ian Murray will stay on for Labour. Edinburgh West looks clear for the Lib Dems and the two remaining seats will stay SNP.
It will be. The EU are currently making some ridiculous demands which make any sort of a deal impossible. There biggest red line seems to be leaving the EU must make us poorer by there actions rather than being an opinion.
The problem is that if the plans are not seen as absolutely credible, there could be a market and business reaction which will undermine what she's trying to achieve.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham is to Manchester as Khan is to London. A decent Labour candidate in a Labour town.
We've taken the piss out of him alot here, and he may well have been heading to defeat nationally against May - but it'd have been a respectable Ed Miliband size defeat.
Indeed. He's a man mountain compared to the clown in charge currently.
the Le Pen 35-40 market has rightly tightened, but I am more bullish on Macron. The polls have moved in his favour in recent days, he won the head to head, and undecideds are much more likely to break for him. He is simply the far better candidate.
Cover the 30-35% band IMO.
I'm hoping that it drifts slightly then may put a bit of cover in it to limit losses.
A Le Pen leaning areas tend to report first, before Pasis etc pulls Macron up, expect the bands to become better value, if the same pattern is followed as 2 weeks ago.
Thanks for that - I'll keep an eye on it on the night.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
The least surprising analysis of the evening. Albeit thoroughly accurate.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham is to Manchester as Khan is to London. A decent Labour candidate in a Labour town.
Quite right. Simon was a shocking candidate who contrived to lose a Labour town. The Brummie Livingstone III and IV.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
The least surprising analysis of the evening. Albeit thoroughly accurate.
Burnham is still rubbish. The fact that he would be a big improvement over Corbyn merely shows how deep is the hole the Labour Party is in.
Its worth revisiting some of the Tory candidates for gains in Scotland. Let's assume that the 3 border seats and Abderdeen West and Kincardine are nailed on. Where else?
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
Edinburgh South West will probably go Tory based on today's council results. Edinburgh South is certainly a possibility, but my hunch is Ian Murray will stay on for Labour. Edinburgh West looks clear for the Lib Dems and the two remaining seats will stay SNP.
In principle East Lothian and Midlothian should go Labour. I am not hugely confident in those predictions however.
It will be. The EU are currently making some ridiculous demands which make any sort of a deal impossible. There biggest red line seems to be leaving the EU must make us poorer by there actions rather than being an opinion.
The problem is that if the plans are not seen as absolutely credible, there could be a market and business reaction which will undermine what she's trying to achieve.
Yes, absolutely. Something thought up after a long boozy lunch and drafted on the back of the fag packet will not do. Something that is serious is what is needed if at all. Now that it's been briefed though it will have to come out.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
The least surprising analysis of the evening. Albeit thoroughly accurate.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
Alternatively Burnham is popular now as a prince over the water precisely because he wasn't chosen in 2015.
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
Burnham clearly polls above his party, like May, Corbyn polls below his. Labour made the wrong choice in 2015
The least surprising analysis of the evening. Albeit thoroughly accurate.
Burnham is still rubbish. The fact that he would be a big improvement over Corbyn merely shows how deep is the hole the Labour Party is in.
Burnham won every district in Greater Manchester, including Tory Trafford, he clearly has appeal beyond just the Labour core vote
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teddy_Taylor
Well in Perth and Kinross the Tories are now the largest party with 17 (+7) councillors to the SNP's 15 (-2). Pete Wishart's seat is certainly in play.
In Renfrewshire the SNP are 19 (+2) but the Tories have leaped from 1 to 8 with Labour halving. I think East Renfrewshire is certainly in play.
In Moray, Angus Robertson's seat, there is now 9 SNP (-1) 8 Independents and 8 Conservatives (+5). This is no longer a seat with a built in SNP majority.
In Stirling there are now 9 SNP (-1) and 9 Conservative (+5). Surely Stirling (Forsyth's old seat) is surely up for grabs again.
In Edinburgh there are now 19 SNP (-2) and 18 Conservatives (+7) and 12 SLAB (-9). Edinburgh South is looking a 3 way marginal as is Edinburgh West and, a bit more of a stretch, Edinburgh north and Leith.
The tories are now the largest party in Aberdeenshire at 23 (+9) compared with the SNP at 21 (-8). Aberdeen South looks a very realistic target.
In Argyll & Bute the SNP are 11 (-2) and the Tories are now 9 (+5) but the Lib Dems also gained 2 and any chance of a victory requires the mother of all squeezes on the Lib Dem vote. Not looking likely.
I would emphasise that all of these seats still require quite big swings from 2015 but the locals suggest that they are in play to a significant extent and their odds should really shorten.
I don't know who they will break for. In Dumfries & Galloway a lot of their vote came from traditionally Conservative leaning areas but there were exceptions and I don't know what the pattern is over the rest of the country.
If being reduced to being a fellow traveller of Anas and UKIP isn't enough, perhaps this will temporarliy restrain your self pleasuring excitement at coming a mediocre second (& when I say coming...). It's for your own good.
'Scott_P Posts: 21,352
June 25
williamglenn said:
At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it'
'Scott_P Posts: 21,367
June 25
JackW said:
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Nice to see you Jack
I agree on all 3 points.'
If you wanted to go back in you'd have to get a referendum and that I suspect would be hard to win.
Cover the 30-35% band IMO.
Anyone can create jobs - you just borrow money and give it to people to spend.
But you don't get rich that way - you get rich by creating more wealth than you consume.
Now perhaps you like to take a guess at how long ago Britain had a current account surplus ?
And then you might like to consider whether low skilled, low productivity workers are creating more wealth than they consume. And whether it is or isn't a good idea to have unlimited immigration of yet more low skilled, low productivity workers.
I think Edinburgh South West is probably a more realistic target than the other three, albeit a bit of a stretch as they didn't gain the Pentlands seat last year.
In Aberdeenshire, all the Tory candidates that stood this year were elected, which suggests that they would have won more if they had stood more. I agree that Aberdeen South is a good target, although I think that it is within the Aberdeen City boundaries. However, on some of the swings we have seen, Banff and Buchan, and (almost unbelievably) Gordon might be reasonably close. In the latter, though, there is the difficulty of the Lib Dems being placed ahead of the Tories, not to mention behind Salmond...
The meltdown is going to be fun.
Patriots 1. Saboteurs 0.
https://www.gmelects.org.uk/downloads/download/12/gm_mayor_election_4_may_2017_ward_level_data
Burnham's performance is impressive given the disaster up and down the rest of the country. He carried almost everything. He even carried Cheadle constituency.
Was his Tory opponent so lackluster?
http://www.barrheadnews.com/news/15268735.Conservatives_overtake_Labour_as_East_Renfrewshire_s_leading_party/?ref=twtrec
Disclosure: the Conservative candidate, Paul Masterton, is a colleague of mine (indeed, in the Glasgow office of the pensions team in which I am one of the partners).
I should have added 1959, although Labour will do worse.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/860610053040209920
Serious question: did Macron and his wife marry in church? Pope Francis, also a Jesuit, has been accused of not having been as anti-Le Pen as some would have expected.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THBP5O67bBk
I heard Barry Gardiner (I think) on the today program talking about the school dinners announcement. The 'policy' amounted to just that - one sentence. How will it work asked the sympathetic host? No idea about the details came the reply.
What the hard left need to realise is the public won't be fooled by vacuous platitudes. They expect someone asking to be their Governemnt to have their detailed balanced, costed policy platform. I actually can't believe what I've heard so far. You would think that the 30 years in the wilderness would have alllowed them to come up with a program at least.
Not so f**king great now are they. All been taken for a ride the guillable mugs.
Over 50% first round vote for the Lib Dem.
Pile. On.
C.f. David Miliband