2. Everyone thinks the Tories are heading for a landslide. That is the perception at the moment. Luckily no one other than die hard politicos know what an NEV is,
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The whole point of NEV is that it adjusts for the areas that are voting.
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
Multiple Clegg-asms?!
I wonder if Clegg wouldn't actually be that bad of a choice. Yes he was clearly toxic during the coalition years, and he has to take ultimate responsibility for a disastrous 2015 campaign (and a somewhat wasted opportunity in 2010), but the LDs have few MPs of gravitas. Perhaps an ex Deputy PM would at least be a more recognisable choice, and the coalition years and tuition fees are ancient history. If Cable did make it back in and Norman Lamb doesn't, then it should be him.
If there's a Labour and LibDem meltdown I could see Clegg coming back as a Macron-style leader of a new centre-left 'movement'.
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
The LibDems did well in North Norfolk so I can't see Lamb losing before Carshalton, Southport and Richmond Park go.
The next leader if there was no Lamb would be Greg Mulholland.
It will be Farron.
The LDs are not Labour, they are much more prone to partaking in tory style regicide (except when it came to Clegg in 2014 strangely enough), I can't see him staying on if the election results are a disaster
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The whole point of NEV is that it adjusts for the areas that are voting.
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
Yes and no. It calculates the overall swings in the areas that voted and then plugs it for the whole country.
2. Everyone thinks the Tories are heading for a landslide. That is the perception at the moment. Luckily no one other than die hard politicos know what an NEV is,
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.
Got a bone to pick with you. "I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world" got seriously close to getting a rendention in Edinburgh Sheriff Court today. Would have made the case marginally more surreal than it was already.
Snaring TSE and DavidL in consecutive posts. That's a fine day's work.
That bloody blue song's been in my damn head all day too!
Dodgy '90's lyrics should be banned before lunchtime
Someone once pointed out to me that the name of the footballer Didier Ndong made him sing "Saturday Night" to himself every time he heard it.
Who knows which other unwary posters I'll torment with that post?
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
I think that's optimistic.
It certainly would have neutered his chances of opposing for the next 3 years, as the inevitable reply to any opposition would have been "let's ask the people, let's have an election".
But at some point - when the polls became closer - he might say 'ok go ahead then' but to do that when so far behind is just suicide. He has deliberately acted contrary to interests of the party he claims to wish to serve.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
It tells me that all the adjustments pollsters do to re-adjust "shy" Tories inflates the Tories. WWC Tories who were shy to tell the pollsters how they would vote, post_UKIP are no longer shy.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The whole point of NEV is that it adjusts for the areas that are voting.
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
Yes and no. It calculates the overall swings in the areas that voted and then plugs it for the whole country.
You cannot compare the swings in a local election to those in a general election.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
The LibDems did well in North Norfolk so I can't see Lamb losing before Carshalton, Southport and Richmond Park go.
The next leader if there was no Lamb would be Greg Mulholland.
It will be Farron.
The LDs are not Labour, they are much more prone to partaking in tory style regicide (except when it came to Clegg in 2014 strangely enough), I can't see him staying on if the election results are a disaster
I think Farron will get around 15-20 seats mainly in strongly Remain areas like Bath, Cambridge, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cheltenham, Bristol West, Edinburgh West and Lewes where the LDs did best yesterday and similar areas of London like Richmond Park, Twickenham and Kingston and Surbiton which were not up yesterday and that will secure his position, though the Tories will likely gain Carshalton
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
Clegg is best-priced at 16/1 with Bet365 to become the next LibDem leader.
Or you could back Jo Swinson at similar odds, if she regains her seat the odds will shorten quite a bit due to the party never having had a female leader and could be laid-off on Betfair. (Might be something to look at on the 9th of June once there is an idea who will be able to be the leader over the next few years) However unless things go really badly wrong I suspect that Tim Farron will be leader until the next GE in 2021/22.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The whole point of NEV is that it adjusts for the areas that are voting.
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
Yes and no. It calculates the overall swings in the areas that voted and then plugs it for the whole country.
You cannot compare the swings in a local election to those in a general election.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The whole point of NEV is that it adjusts for the areas that are voting.
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
Yes and no. It calculates the overall swings in the areas that voted and then plugs it for the whole country.
You cannot compare the swings in a local election to those in a general election.
On how the Conservatives are sending Theresa May to Labour-held seats with chunky Ukip votes available for her to steal.
Actually it doesn't do what it claims to do. There are 4 visits to constituencies 'above the line' and 3 below it, which is hardly evidence that TM is targeting the ones above the line.
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.
Got a bone to pick with you. "I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world" got seriously close to getting a rendention in Edinburgh Sheriff Court today. Would have made the case marginally more surreal than it was already.
Snaring TSE and DavidL in consecutive posts. That's a fine day's work.
That bloody blue song's been in my damn head all day too!
Dodgy '90's lyrics should be banned before lunchtime
Someone once pointed out to me that the name of the footballer Didier Ndong made him sing "Saturday Night" to himself every time he heard it.
Who knows which other unwary posters I'll torment with that post?
Ooh, that's a bad one!
Unfortunately for my sins I was a young student DJ around that time, so all these dodgy songs are on 12" vinyl gathering dust somewhere in my house. The Blue one is by Eiffel 65.
It approximately consists of wards Conisbrough, Edlington, Finningley, Hatfield, Rossington, Thorne and Tickhill but is on the previously set of wards which are somewhat more favourable to the Conservatives.
I see Labour gained seats there. TP may well be keeping his day job.
He'll have some hard work to do but its not impossible.
8/1 was good value but I wouldn't invest in the current odds.
TP would be the first Conservative to represent the area since the 1900 election.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Bet Teddy Taylor is loving it
Who is Teddy Taylor?
An Arse-hole.
Quite liked Teddy despite his politics. Big Bob Marley fan.
On how the Conservatives are sending Theresa May to Labour-held seats with chunky Ukip votes available for her to steal.
Actually it doesn't do what it claims to do. There are 4 visits to constituencies 'above the line' and 3 below it, which is hardly evidence that TM is targeting the ones above the line.
Chris cook and properly analysing data rarely goes well....
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Bet Teddy Taylor is loving it
Who is Teddy Taylor?
An Arse-hole.
Quite liked Teddy despite his politics. Big Bob Marley fan.
Who doesn't love a reggae fan who wants to hang and flog? Smoke a big old reefer whilst they beat young men with da birch.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
It tells me that all the adjustments pollsters do to re-adjust "shy" Tories inflates the Tories. WWC Tories who were shy to tell the pollsters how they would vote, post_UKIP are no longer shy.
It is entirely due to LD local, Tory national voters. Almost half the LD local election voters yesterday will vote Tory at the general election. In the 1987 general election exactly the same thing happened, with the SDP voteshare falling and the Tory voteshare rising from the local elections to the general election the following month
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
@wallaceme: Shoutout to the Labour MP overheard today calling the new Liverpool Labour Mayor @Steve4LCRmayor "an absolute bastard" #WithFriendsLikeThese
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
Labour is still very strong in the inner cities and declining conurbation suburbs.
Locally Lab held one of the Coalville seats, the Lib Dems the other. Coalville is somewhere I know well as I do clinics there. It is a WWC town, with some new housing. So did Loughborough, and I dont think many students vote in locals.
I think Labour are a long way off winning the NW Leics and Loughborough seats that made up part of Blairs majority. I cannot see any of the 3 Lab or 7 Con seats in Leics changing hands, though I shall be campaigning again in Bosworth. It just doesnt smell like meltdown in this bellwether part of middle England.
I haven't done any formal modelling, but my guessing stick suggests about 175 Lab seats.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
I had a late lunch today after the conclusion of my court case. Speaking to the trainee who had been assisting. She said that she didn't really agree with any of the parties or like politicians. I said what about Ruth Davidson. Big smile. "Oh, I like Ruth, she's really funny."
Ruth gets the Scottish Tories places they have absolutely no right to be. Like Shettleston.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Bet Teddy Taylor is loving it
Who is Teddy Taylor?
The last Tory MP in Glasgow
He was an ardent Thatcherite who then got re-elected in Southend. Arch Eurosceptic who was one of the "white coats" people that were the bane of John Major's premiership.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
It never ceases to amaze me how many people interested in politics cannot separate the difference between local election results and GE results, or try to extrapolate voting percentages into seat predictions. These same people are at least consistent, because they say the same things after every set of local elections, and are proved wrong in every ensuing GE. It is an exercise in futility trying to predict general election results from the previous local council results.
Saying all that, the main opposition party doesn't usually lose hundreds of seats either, so if there is anything to extrapolate, it is the fact that Labour are doing even worse than they did in 1983, right before a thrashing at the following GE. Anyone who believes the 38/27/18 the three main parties got can be transposed into a national election, where a government is at stake, are frankly deluded.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
Its good to know that even although politics is all over the place and as volatile and unpredictable as I can ever recall it there are certain verities in British life that can be relied upon. Like Spurs screwing up their chances of winning the PL.
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
It never ceases to amaze me how many people interested in politics cannot separate the difference between local election results and GE results, or try to extrapolate voting percentages into seat predictions. These same people are at least consistent, because they say the same things after every set of local elections, and are proved wrong in every ensuing GE. It is an exercise in futility trying to predict general election results from the previous local council results.
Saying all that, the main opposition party doesn't usually lose hundreds of seats either, so if there is anything to extrapolate, it is the fact that Labour are doing even worse than they did in 1983, right before a thrashing at the following GE. Anyone who believes the 38/27/18 the three main parties got can be transposed into a national election, where a government is at stake, are frankly deluded.
The one thing the locals do tell us is Corbyn has no chance of victory
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.
Got a bone to pick with you. "I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world" got seriously close to getting a rendention in Edinburgh Sheriff Court today. Would have made the case marginally more surreal than it was already.
Snaring TSE and DavidL in consecutive posts. That's a fine day's work.
That bloody blue song's been in my damn head all day too!
Dodgy '90's lyrics should be banned before lunchtime
Someone once pointed out to me that the name of the footballer Didier Ndong made him sing "Saturday Night" to himself every time he heard it.
Who knows which other unwary posters I'll torment with that post?
TV journalist Nina Nanner appearing on the telly always provokes a chorus of Bad Manners' Ne Ne Na Na Na Na Nu Nu.....
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
My guessing stick indicates 385 Tories.
I'll take that. numbers that Cameron could only dream of
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
Not at all convinced that all of these shares will rise in lockstep. Would expect SNP and Conservative votes to go up considerably more than the Labour share. Simple reason: the SNP are, crudely put, strongest in the old Labour heartland and weakest (although, granted, such weakness is merely relative) in more affluent and rural areas. In other words, most or all of the realistic potential gains for Unionist parties are in seats where the main challenger to the SNP is either Conservative or Liberal Democrat.
If there's a large amount of Unionist tactical voting then it will disproportionately benefit Con & LD candidates and ought therefore to result in the Labour vote being disproportionately squeezed.
There is no point in Con & LD voters defecting to back Labour in the vast majority of its targets, as Labour is so very far behind that it has no realistic chance of winning them.
You can already see the teenage Momentum keyboard warriors on facebook building the foundations for a "Lost Cause" myth with Corbyn filling the Robert E. Lee role, a brilliant, romantic, noble leader let down by his politicians.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
Multiple Clegg-asms?!
I wonder if Clegg wouldn't actually be that bad of a choice. Yes he was clearly toxic during the coalition years, and he has to take ultimate responsibility for a disastrous 2015 campaign (and a somewhat wasted opportunity in 2010), but the LDs have few MPs of gravitas. Perhaps an ex Deputy PM would at least be a more recognisable choice, and the coalition years and tuition fees are ancient history. If Cable did make it back in and Norman Lamb doesn't, then it should be him.
He probably is the best man for the job, and his coalition with the Cameroons would be seen as a good thing to the people he is reaching out to now
If Labour really are resigned to defeat in 5k or lower majorities that would mean up to 10k must be considered 'in play'and perhaps beyond. 120 or below has to be possible. If England and Wales decide enough is enough it could become a steamroller
Had a by-election in Wiltshire 10 months ago won by the LDs 46% to Tory 21% (gain from Ind, who had died and had been LD). Same Tory candidate, different LD candidate (Leader of town council), today, 45% Con, 40% LD. Turnout up from 27% to 34% (vs 30% 4 years ago). Funny how much things can change in such a short time.
Its good to know that even although politics is all over the place and as volatile and unpredictable as I can ever recall it there are certain verities in British life that can be relied upon. Like Spurs screwing up their chances of winning the PL.
To have minnows win the Premiership in consecutive years would have been wonderful. I'm devastated that the dream has died.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Le Pen's agent has complained to the Electoral Commission that ballots have been tampered with to help Macron. This story seems mainly to be coming through Fox, but it's true. (I mean it is true that the Le Pen side has submitted the complaint. I have no idea whether the allegation of tampering is true.) In a press release it issued today, the Electoral Commission says it has asked the interior ministry to investigate.
The Commission also says that it has asked both candidates to be very careful not to break spending rules, although it is not at all clear why that should be referred to in this particular press release, nor why it should be grouped together with what the Commission says about the tampering allegation under the heading of what it has told Le Pen's agent.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
In 1983, Birmingham was a comfortable hold for the Tories.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
Far fewer Independents and Residents Associations at GEs
Had a by-election in Wiltshire 10 months ago won by the LDs 46% to Tory 21% (gain from Ind, who had died and had been LD). Same Tory candidate, different LD candidate (Leader of town council), today, 45% Con, 40% LD. Turnout up from 27% to 34% (vs 30% 4 years ago). Funny how much things can change in such a short time.
Very interesting, thank you. Anyone still relying upon local council by elections to act as a guide to the upcoming GE?
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
It never ceases to amaze me how many people interested in politics cannot separate the difference between local election results and GE results, or try to extrapolate voting percentages into seat predictions. These same people are at least consistent, because they say the same things after every set of local elections, and are proved wrong in every ensuing GE. It is an exercise in futility trying to predict general election results from the previous local council results.
Saying all that, the main opposition party doesn't usually lose hundreds of seats either, so if there is anything to extrapolate, it is the fact that Labour are doing even worse than they did in 1983, right before a thrashing at the following GE. Anyone who believes the 38/27/18 the three main parties got can be transposed into a national election, where a government is at stake, are frankly deluded.
The one thing the locals do tell us is Corbyn has no chance of victory
The only thing anyone can safely extrapolate from local council results are....local council results. And that's it. Everything else is mostly wishful thinking. Corbyn is sunk, but that has got nothing to do with these results. Copeland had far more significance, and even then, by elections are not a reliable guide either.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
My guessing stick indicates 385 Tories.
I'll take that. numbers that Cameron could only dream of
Just as Corbynites despise Blair, the man who made them electable again, so do PB Tories despise the man who did the same for them*.
After Hubris comes Nemesis.
*May was a key part of the Cameron project, in all his Shadow or real Cabinets, and put in one of the great offices of state by him and George. Either she is a turncoat or a shameless opportunist.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
I had a late lunch today after the conclusion of my court case. Speaking to the trainee who had been assisting. She said that she didn't really agree with any of the parties or like politicians. I said what about Ruth Davidson. Big smile. "Oh, I like Ruth, she's really funny."
Ruth gets the Scottish Tories places they have absolutely no right to be. Like Shettleston.
Interesting. That said the councillor is a local lad which I suspect helps.
A day of reports of Labour doing very badly helps make it a self-fulfilling prophecy - some waverers may think that's enough and throw in the towel.
It will also make Labour campaigners less enthusiastic, harder to raise money etc etc.
I think if enough people see the footage of Corbyn celebrating in Manchester, it might reduce the Labour vote even further. That was completely bonkers.
Wikileaks has apparently released some information about Macron, which only seems to provide further evidence that they are either coordinated by the Russians or used by them.
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
Had a by-election in Wiltshire 10 months ago won by the LDs 46% to Tory 21% (gain from Ind, who had died and had been LD). Same Tory candidate, different LD candidate (Leader of town council), today, 45% Con, 40% LD. Turnout up from 27% to 34% (vs 30% 4 years ago). Funny how much things can change in such a short time.
Very interesting, thank you. Anyone still relying upon local council by elections to act as a guide to the upcoming GE?
Sort of - My ward result indicates Labour is in desperate trouble in Don and Rother Valley imo
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Bet Teddy Taylor is loving it
Who is Teddy Taylor?
The last Tory MP in Glasgow
He was an ardent Thatcherite who then got re-elected in Southend. Arch Eurosceptic who was one of the "white coats" people that were the bane of John Major's premiership.
I see. It would be remarkably good if a Conservative local boy could win a Glasgow east end seat...
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
Not one general election poll has the LDs anywhere near 18% nor the Tories as low as 38% which tells you everything you need to know, there are plenty of voters who vote LDs locally because they are good at emptying the bins and mending potholes but Tory nationally because the Tories can actually run the country http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Spot on. Turnouts in the GE are alot larger too. Anyone baxtering the locals - Well.....
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
hang on a minute,TM has done better than Maggie in 83 in these locals surely this points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael Foot that Corbyn is
My guessing stick indicates 385 Tories.
I'll take that. numbers that Cameron could only dream of
Just as Corbynites despise Blair, the man who made them electable again, so do PB Tories despise the man who did the same for them*.
After Hubris comes Nemesis.
*May was a key part of the Cameron project, in all his Shadow or real Cabinets, and put in one of the great offices of state by him and George. Either she is a turncoat or a shameless opportunist.
Indeed. A more reasonable approach seems to me to be that Cameron did a good job taking them from where they were to 2015, and May's skillset probably wouldn't have allowed that, but he would have been unable to take advantage as well as May since 2016 (not least due to Brexit being terminal for him, even as May's muted Remain stance helps her).
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
Not at all convinced that all of these shares will rise in lockstep. Would expect SNP and Conservative votes to go up considerably more than the Labour share. Simple reason: the SNP are, crudely put, strongest in the old Labour heartland and weakest (although, granted, such weakness is merely relative) in more affluent and rural areas. In other words, most or all of the realistic potential gains for Unionist parties are in seats where the main challenger to the SNP is either Conservative or Liberal Democrat.
If there's a large amount of Unionist tactical voting then it will disproportionately benefit Con & LD candidates and ought therefore to result in the Labour vote being disproportionately squeezed.
There is no point in Con & LD voters defecting to back Labour in the vast majority of its targets, as Labour is so very far behind that it has no realistic chance of winning them.
Apparently the SNP were on 40% in Glasgow compared with 57% in 2015. A decline as sharp as that next month might bring some of those seats into play for Labour - as well as East Lothian , Edingburgh North - with East Renfrewshire a three way fight. Not had time to take a close look yet , but it may be significant that for the second consecutive year the pollsters have underestimated Labour in Scotland. Last year they did that to an even greater extent to the Tories for Holyrood - though not this year . Indeed 23% was at the low end of Tory expectations in Scotland.
Its a Tory landslide. Basic trends are UKIP dead all votes to the Tories, and Tories keeping all the LibDem votes won last time. Labour voters staying home. Then add in the SNP to Tory trend in Scotland, and add in the Brexit background and its time to forget UNS and start looking at which unwinnable seats the Tories can sweep.
And after the demolition there will be some Labour internecine warfare then we will come back stronger just as "we didn't get a deal" kicks in and our economy crashes to a halt as our border effectively shuts due to the customs checks imposed.
On Polling Report site estimates given of 1st preference vote share in Scotland are - SNP 35% Con 23% Lab 21%.. The significant vote for Independents probably means that the three parties would poll a bit higher next month , but I suspect that Labour will be quite content with that result and particularly being only 2% behind the Tories. Matching the 24% polled in 2015 seems quite realistic.
23%.
I'll just roll that number about for a bit.
'There is only one winner today'
Anything under 40 % for the Nationalists was going to be a disappointment. 35 % is real bad.
Wikileaks has apparently released some information about Macron, which only seems to provide further evidence that they are either coordinated by the Russians or used by them.
Interesting they have left it too late to influence the election...Rather attempt to damage the new leader from the get go.
A number of weeks ago I mentioned how the French Intelligence services occasionally takes a hand in elections and notably Fillon and Le Pen perhaps had their positions blackened by corruption allegations.
Wikileaks stuff on Macron is predictable, the French authorities knew about this possibility of running interference.
Unlike elsewhere, they will not take it lying down if they have a problem with it.
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
Wouldn't have to be a social democratic party. A liberal or soft Tory government would prioritise business and the economy over immigration controls
The economy and immigration controls are two entirely different issues.
The era of uncontrolled immigration has also been the worst for economic performance.
Countries don't get rich by going 'all-in' on the hand wash car industry.
I think it will almost certainly be Macron 60-65% and Le Pen 35-40% or thereabouts, a clear win for Macron but Le Pen still doubling the voteshare of her father in 2002. Attention will then switch to the legislative elections where En Marche could well be the largest party on the latest polling but short of a majority
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
It doesn't matter what Baxter says.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
A day of reports of Labour doing very badly helps make it a self-fulfilling prophecy - some waverers may think that's enough and throw in the towel.
It will also make Labour campaigners less enthusiastic, harder to raise money etc etc.
I think if enough people see the footage of Corbyn celebrating in Manchester, it might reduce the Labour vote even further. That was completely bonkers.
I think political rallies are the only context in which he feels fully alive. The reason he didn't bugger May about over the ftpa is that goings on in the HoC just don't interest him one bit.
And the more he rallies the more bizarre the claim that it is May who fails to interact with ordinary voters will appear.
Comments
1. The NEV is more or less correct
2. Everyone thinks the Tories are heading for a landslide. That is the perception at the moment. Luckily no one other than die hard politicos know what an NEV is,
But it doesn't translate always to national figures. In 2013 the Kipper figure for NEV was 22%.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Who knows which other unwary posters I'll torment with that post?
You cannot compare the swings in a local election to those in a general election.
However unless things go really badly wrong I suspect that Tim Farron will be leader until the next GE in 2021/22.
Unfortunately for my sins I was a young student DJ around that time, so all these dodgy songs are on 12" vinyl gathering dust somewhere in my house. The Blue one is by Eiffel 65.
8/1 was good value but I wouldn't invest in the current odds.
TP would be the first Conservative to represent the area since the 1900 election.
Big Bob Marley fan.
Smoke a big old reefer whilst they beat young men with da birch.
I think Labour are a long way off winning the NW Leics and Loughborough seats that made up part of Blairs majority. I cannot see any of the 3 Lab or 7 Con seats in Leics changing hands, though I shall be campaigning again in Bosworth. It just doesnt smell like meltdown in this bellwether part of middle England.
I haven't done any formal modelling, but my guessing stick suggests about 175 Lab seats.
Ruth gets the Scottish Tories places they have absolutely no right to be. Like Shettleston.
points to a 400 plus seat tory government against the pound shop Michael
Foot that Corbyn is
Although not quite so many parts of the country as was once the case, I would surmise...
Saying all that, the main opposition party doesn't usually lose hundreds of seats either, so if there is anything to extrapolate, it is the fact that Labour are doing even worse than they did in 1983, right before a thrashing at the following GE. Anyone who believes the 38/27/18 the three main parties got can be transposed into a national election, where a government is at stake, are frankly deluded.
Burnham supporters love that he didn't go to Corbyn thing.
Corbyn supporters love that Burnham didnt go to the thing.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Like I said, Labour. What a time to be alive.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/theresa-may-closing-in-on-100-seat-commons-majority-general-election-local-elections-suggest
If there's a large amount of Unionist tactical voting then it will disproportionately benefit Con & LD candidates and ought therefore to result in the Labour vote being disproportionately squeezed.
There is no point in Con & LD voters defecting to back Labour in the vast majority of its targets, as Labour is so very far behind that it has no realistic chance of winning them.
A day of reports of Labour doing very badly helps make it a self-fulfilling prophecy - some waverers may think that's enough and throw in the towel.
It will also make Labour campaigners less enthusiastic, harder to raise money etc etc.
The Commission also says that it has asked both candidates to be very careful not to break spending rules, although it is not at all clear why that should be referred to in this particular press release, nor why it should be grouped together with what the Commission says about the tampering allegation under the heading of what it has told Le Pen's agent.
After Hubris comes Nemesis.
*May was a key part of the Cameron project, in all his Shadow or real Cabinets, and put in one of the great offices of state by him and George. Either she is a turncoat or a shameless opportunist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1983
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1987
In 1983 Birmingham and Cardiff were Conservative controlled as were Sefton and Wirral on Merseyside.
Whilst on the other hand Labour did much better in medium sized towns than they do now.
I'll just roll that number about for a bit.
'There is only one winner today'
I can't see it happening though.
Macron 63% .. Len Pen 37%
Apres debate polls edge a couple of points to Macron
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/rapport_ipsoslemonde5mai_0.pdf
"Compared to two years ago, we're.... doing our best."
And after the demolition there will be some Labour internecine warfare then we will come back stronger just as "we didn't get a deal" kicks in and our economy crashes to a halt as our border effectively shuts due to the customs checks imposed.
@AnasSarwar: Should compare Glasgow result to last 2 years.
2015 SNP got 56%.
2016 SNP got 54%.
2017 SNP get ~40%.
1 in 4 votes lost in a year.
Wikileaks stuff on Macron is predictable, the French authorities knew about this possibility of running interference.
Unlike elsewhere, they will not take it lying down if they have a problem with it.
The era of uncontrolled immigration has also been the worst for economic performance.
Countries don't get rich by going 'all-in' on the hand wash car industry.
If the Conservatives are winning the West Midlands Conurbation, and Teesside, they are heading for similar results to 1895, 1900, 1924, 1935, and 1983.
And the more he rallies the more bizarre the claim that it is May who fails to interact with ordinary voters will appear.