Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
7.9% increase for me
Not according to these figures. The Lib Dem votes really surprise me. Now it would be easier to name which seats are amongst the 25 they are projected to win.
'John McDonnell gets bigger Labour role after local election failures'
Maybe we will get to hear more about how much he admires the way the economy has been run in Venezuela.
'Venezuela: Labour's socialist utopia is a violent, poverty-stricken failed ... www.express.co.uk › News › World 3 Jan 2016 - Yet for many in the UK, Venezuela is the poster child of what socialism can ... John McDonnell giving him a hero's welcome on a visit to the UK..
On a practical note, what does this do to Labour and LibDem morale for the general election ?
Labour morale surely takes another hit. Last year they outperformed expectations, this year they have underperformed them.
LDs also I'd think disappointed, but they were still only targeting a few key areas intensely, and though even the signs was not universally good, they can still hope a deteriorating Labour situation and still fired up membership sees them hold their seats or even gain a few.
But getting above 10 may prove a bigger challenge than thought.
I'm not sure I'll bother voting for them even for the minute contribution to the national % as encouragement.
The LDs need to concentrate their efforts over only about 20 seats though, the eight they've got and a dozen more they want - treat them like 20 Brexit-themed by-elections in Richmond, it's their best chance of getting anywhere in June.
I believe Farron has a rousing speech prepared: "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to save your deposits!"
Burnham was clearly the best bet for Labour in my view in 2015 from a pretty average field but he will now have more power as Mayor of Greater Manchester than he would as Labour leader
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
May is Maggie in 79, against a vastly inferior Callaghan, that's the reach she has Whether she becomes Maggie in 1990 depends on Brexit
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.
He even had the helicopter booked, ready to fly him from his constituency to Stirling Castle. lol.
To be fair that has got to hurt, he really thought - the private polls were telling him - that he was going to pull off the most astonishing win in modern British history. In the end, the man that did that was the loathsome English stockbroker, Nigel Farage.
Ouch.
No the man that did was that laughed at English Eton educated buffoon, Boris Johnson.
So are we now blaming Brexit on Henry VI?
Well, if he hadn't lost France we would have been able to rule it and there would have been a proper US of Europe based on London rather than some rubbishy French construct based on Brussels.
So obviously it must be his fault.
Actually, I think it was a fortunate defeat. I think if the Plantagenets had won France, England would have become a backwater. The Court would have been in Paris.
If York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire...
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
Yes, but the Opposition can't credibly oppose an election indefinitely, they'd look even more absurd than they are already. Mrs May would have called the dissolution vote every month and brought the subject up every day over the spring and summer.
FWIW I think she would have eventually gone down the "Repeal the FTPA" route rather than the absurd "No-confidence my own government" route. Way too many unknowns in the latter case, and she'd have got a couple of dozen helpful new Tory peers included in the deal.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
The Tories have lost some upper middle class support since then. They've also fallen back in London. They've regained the high level of lower middle and working class support in the South and Midlands of the Thatcher years, and grown such support in the North and Scotland.
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
Well, if a Conservative has been elected in the east end of Glasgow you'd have to assume the ghost of Maggie is leaving the scene. The ghost of Jeremy Corbyn will be around for years to come though.
Of course worth remembering the tide will always turn, but in the short and probably medium things looking very rosy for the Tories.
Hubris was the greatest enemy ahead of June 8th, I don't know what iron self control will prevent it, but it should hardly matter.
I spoke to a Leaver Tory today, he said funny as it might seem now, but the pendulum will swing, because it always does, so in the next 20 years we'll have an electable Labour party, or some other centre-left party will win a general election, and in their manifesto it might well include a manifesto pledge to take us back into the single market, custom union, and freedom of movement.
Agreement will last 99 years with the EU and will have an early exit fee of £3 trillion pounds.
I've said that on here, myself, before, and your Tory is right. At some point a social democratic party will take us back into a new form of the Single Market, possibly quite soon - with a tweaked Swiss style agreement on FoM. It is too beneficial to the rEU and to us, for this not to happen.
But I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the political project that is the EU.
The pendulum doesn't always swing on all issues - there are plenty of issues where a party can only return from the wilderness when they accept the new concensus and cease trying to change it (nationalising the means of production, minimum wage).
Depending on the next few years maintaining Brexit will either be an ongoing battle or the settled mainstream view and part of the minimum offering for a party to be a credible government.
I'm talking about a fudged Single Market relationship, which the EU and UK will call something else, to save face on both sides. Economics will demand it. By then the EU will have gotten over its paranoia and anger, by then the UK will feel comfortable enough to accept a closer deal.
10-15 years away. Rough guess.
Will probably require a Labour or centre left government too, so at least a decade away yes
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
The Tories have lost some upper middle class support since then. They've also fallen back in London. They've regained the high level of lower middle and working class support in the South and Midlands of the Thatcher years, and grown such support in the North and Scotland.
Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.
He even had the helicopter booked, ready to fly him from his constituency to Stirling Castle. lol.
To be fair that has got to hurt, he really thought - the private polls were telling him - that he was going to pull off the most astonishing win in modern British history. In the end, the man that did that was the loathsome English stockbroker, Nigel Farage.
Ouch.
No the man that did was that laughed at English Eton educated buffoon, Boris Johnson.
So are we now blaming Brexit on Henry VI?
Well, if he hadn't lost France we would have been able to rule it and there would have been a proper US of Europe based on London rather than some rubbishy French construct based on Brussels.
So obviously it must be his fault.
Actually, I think it was a fortunate defeat. I think if the Plantagenets had won France, England would have become a backwater. The Court would have been in Paris.
If York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire...
York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire? Remained? Have you been spending time with Mr. Morris_Dancer?
On a practical note, what does this do to Labour and LibDem morale for the general election ?
Labour morale surely takes another hit. Last year they outperformed expectations, this year they have underperformed them.
LDs also I'd think disappointed, but they were still only targeting a few key areas intensely, and though even the signs was not universally good, they can still hope a deteriorating Labour situation and still fired up membership sees them hold their seats or even gain a few.
But getting above 10 may prove a bigger challenge than thought.
I'm not sure I'll bother voting for them even for the minute contribution to the national % as encouragement.
The LDs need to concentrate their efforts over only about 20 seats though, the eight they've got and a dozen more they want - treat them like 20 Brexit-themed by-elections in Richmond, it's their best chance of getting anywhere in June.
I believe Farron has a rousing speech prepared: "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to save your deposits!"
Ha, memories of perhaps the funniest Twitter feed on GE2015 night. I wonder if they'll resurrect it again this time?
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Le Pen's vote was also higher the further you got into the countryside and smaller towns while Macron's vote peaked in Paris
Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.
He even had the helicopter booked, ready to fly him from his constituency to Stirling Castle. lol.
To be fair that has got to hurt, he really thought - the private polls were telling him - that he was going to pull off the most astonishing win in modern British history. In the end, the man that did that was the loathsome English stockbroker, Nigel Farage.
Ouch.
No the man that did was that laughed at English Eton educated buffoon, Boris Johnson.
So are we now blaming Brexit on Henry VI?
Well, if he hadn't lost France we would have been able to rule it and there would have been a proper US of Europe based on London rather than some rubbishy French construct based on Brussels.
So obviously it must be his fault.
Actually, I think it was a fortunate defeat. I think if the Plantagenets had won France, England would have become a backwater. The Court would have been in Paris.
If York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire...
If George III had given representation to the colonists.........
On a practical note, what does this do to Labour and LibDem morale for the general election ?
Labour morale surely takes another hit. Last year they outperformed expectations, this year they have underperformed them.
LDs also I'd think disappointed, but they were still only targeting a few key areas intensely, and though even the signs was not universally good, they can still hope a deteriorating Labour situation and still fired up membership sees them hold their seats or even gain a few.
But getting above 10 may prove a bigger challenge than thought.
I'm not sure I'll bother voting for them even for the minute contribution to the national % as encouragement.
The LDs need to concentrate their efforts over only about 20 seats though, the eight they've got and a dozen more they want - treat them like 20 Brexit-themed by-elections in Richmond, it's their best chance of getting anywhere in June.
I believe Farron has a rousing speech prepared: "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to save your deposits!"
Well, it's rough for most of them, but as a strategy it probably needs doing.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
They got plenty in many places. Just not enough in enough of them.
Electoral politics is totally zero sum. If the Tories do well, all other parties will do badly by definition. The LDs aren't necessarily doing anything wrong, but can still be killed off by the Tory surge.
Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.
He even had the helicopter booked, ready to fly him from his constituency to Stirling Castle. lol.
To be fair that has got to hurt, he really thought - the private polls were telling him - that he was going to pull off the most astonishing win in modern British history. In the end, the man that did that was the loathsome English stockbroker, Nigel Farage.
Ouch.
No the man that did was that laughed at English Eton educated buffoon, Boris Johnson.
So are we now blaming Brexit on Henry VI?
Well, if he hadn't lost France we would have been able to rule it and there would have been a proper US of Europe based on London rather than some rubbishy French construct based on Brussels.
So obviously it must be his fault.
Actually, I think it was a fortunate defeat. I think if the Plantagenets had won France, England would have become a backwater. The Court would have been in Paris.
If York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire...
York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire? Remained? Have you been spending time with Mr. Morris_Dancer?
"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our motherland's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Atlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Progressiveness. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Liverpool, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
On a practical note, what does this do to Labour and LibDem morale for the general election ?
Labour morale surely takes another hit. Last year they outperformed expectations, this year they have underperformed them.
LDs also I'd think disappointed, but they were still only targeting a few key areas intensely, and though even the signs was not universally good, they can still hope a deteriorating Labour situation and still fired up membership sees them hold their seats or even gain a few.
But getting above 10 may prove a bigger challenge than thought.
I'm not sure I'll bother voting for them even for the minute contribution to the national % as encouragement.
We focus on the positives (of which there are some genuine ones) and park the introspection until June 9th. There's enough to build on here to keep morale up, and we don't need much of an excuse to pound pavements anyway.
In the back of our minds some doubts are raised about our prospects in June, but not enough to out us off much. Even the disappointing bits of today aren't bad enough to change our hope/expectation of moving in the right direction - albeit perhaps not as quickly as we hoped.
(EDIT: 'We' is the LDs.)
The LDs have the advantage, if such it can be called, that they faced a wipeout only two years ago and decided to keep trying, as well as being the successor to a party that was just as reduced decades ago and kept going. Disappointing local results are easier to handle in that context I imagine.
We leaflet to win, we leaflet to reduce the margin of defeat, and we leaflet when we just don't know what else to do.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
1. The Lib Dems always do better in local than general elections, and a disproportionate number of the elections were in shire counties. This has traditionally favoured them: most of the Lib Dems' 2015 losses were in rural Scotland (to SNP) and rural/suburban Southern England (to the Tories.) 2. The Remain/Leave narrative doesn't fly. You'd be entitled to believe that what's left of the Ukip vote is practically all Leave, but that's about it. The two large parties' support is split, and I imagine that even the Lib Dem share contains a substantial number of Leave voters at local level, who like the party and/or the idea of effective opposition for the council. Lib Dem Leave voters and Labour loyalists who detest Corbyn might both back those parties in local government elections, but sit on their hands or vote Conservative at the General Election.
You could more cogently argue that the combined Left vote is higher than the combined Right vote in this round of elections, but even then the waters are muddied by the presence of a lot of independents and local ratepayers' or residents' candidates.
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
Yes, but the Opposition can't credibly oppose an election indefinitely, they'd look even more absurd than they are already. Mrs May would have called the dissolution vote every month and brought the subject up every day over the spring and summer.
FWIW I think she would have eventually gone down the "Repeal the FTPA" route rather than the absurd "No-confidence my own government" route. Way too many unknowns in the latter case, and she'd have got a couple of dozen helpful new Tory peers included in the deal.
That's rubbish. Corbyn could easily have said that this is the law of the land and we will not vote to change it. If you want an election so badly then vote in a confidence motion against your own government.
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
If that is the result it doesn't matter who the leader is, they're basically done - the next leader might as well be from any defecting labour delegation as part of a rebrand dropping the LD name (should Corbyn refuse to go).
Corbyn is, unwittingly, God's instrument. Britain needs a popular leftish party, with an "ordinary people" bias. Labour is not suitable. Corbyn is making room for Labour to be replaced.
But he isn't, as LDs and UKIP aren't filling the voice, and if he does stand down post June they won't even split.
Politics in the next couple of decades is going to be fascinating. Do the Tories preside over a realignment that casts them as a party similar in coalition to the US Republicans?
Fortunately, we have nothing like the USA's racial divisions, but all right wing parties are becoming parties of the countryside, average towns and small cities, while left wing parties are becoming parties of big cities, universities, and very deprived areas.
Deprived areas like Glasgow Shettleston?
Hearing that result brought a tear to my eye. A remarkable result.
I don't know how the Conservatives won 8 seats in Glasgow.
Perhaps the east end of Glasgow expect us to govern for the many not the few? It's time to work out how to make Conservative policy to work in Glasgow. I was stunned.
The Tories appear to be casting off the South-of-England-Establishment image that has plagued them for at least 25 years. This seems to be solely down to two factors: Brexit and May.
In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
The Tories have lost some upper middle class support since then. They've also fallen back in London. They've regained the high level of lower middle and working class support in the South and Midlands of the Thatcher years, and grown such support in the North and Scotland.
Yes, in my experience from canvassing the poshest, most snobby voters now are LD Remainers not Tories (I of course could not possibly apply such a comparison to PB), while many working class voters who may have voted UKIP or Labour in the past are now happy to vote for May whereas they may have been more reluctant to vote for Cameron
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
1. The Lib Dems always do better in local than general elections, and a disproportionate number of the elections were in shire counties. This has traditionally favoured them: most of the Lib Dems' 2015 losses were in rural Scotland (to SNP) and rural/suburban Southern England (to the Tories.) 2. The Remain/Leave narrative doesn't fly. You'd be entitled to believe that what's left of the Ukip vote is practically all Leave, but that's about it. The two large parties' support is split, and I imagine that even the Lib Dem share contains a substantial number of Leave voters at local level, who like the party and/or the idea of effective opposition for the council. Lib Dem Leave voters and Labour loyalists who detest Corbyn might both back those parties in local government elections, but sit on their hands or vote Conservative at the General Election.
You could more cogently argue that the combined Left vote is higher than the combined Right vote in this round of elections, but even then the waters are muddied by the presence of a lot of independents and local ratepayers' or residents' candidates.
The NEV takes into account that these seats were in mostly shire counties. That is why Labour is shown as having got 27%. In reality they probably didn't even get 15%.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!
No, he couldn't.
No, it wouldn't (because it wouldn't have happened).
Yes he could. Read the constitutional precedents before saying that. Rod Crosby formerly of this parish agrees with me , and I believe that David Herdson holds views on this not very different to my own. Corbyn just showed his ignorance and why he is so unfitted to the position he holds.
On the subject of the LDs targeting, in the Edinburgh West seat we topped the poll in one ward with just over 6000 votes and over 7K between the 2 candidates. That is way higher than we will get in more than half the seats in the entire country next month. (Also in the wards that make up that seat the LDs were way ahead of the SNP)
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
I am told these figures give a majority of 48. Something is wrong with the NEV. One explanation could be that the Tories didn't do that well in 2012 in Scotland and 2013 in E&W so the results exaggerate the "feeling".
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
If that is the result it doesn't matter who the leader is, they're basically done - the next leader might as well be from any defecting labour delegation as part of a rebrand dropping the LD name (should Corbyn refuse to go).
There is no factual substance to go behind the statement
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
Yes, but the Opposition can't credibly oppose an election indefinitely, they'd look even more absurd than they are already. Mrs May would have called the dissolution vote every month and brought the subject up every day over the spring and summer.
FWIW I think she would have eventually gone down the "Repeal the FTPA" route rather than the absurd "No-confidence my own government" route. Way too many unknowns in the latter case, and she'd have got a couple of dozen helpful new Tory peers included in the deal.
That's rubbish. Corbyn could easily have said that this is the law of the land and we will not vote to change it. If you want an election so badly then vote in a confidence motion against your own government.
Well voting to dissolve was also following the law of the land. But the point I think is valid - people say it would have been embarrassing to have previously said let's have an election and then not played ball when May called the bluff, and it might have been, but forcing her to so blatantly maneuver for partisan advantage and vote down herself might have given an opportunity to attack her which would eclipse embarrassment. And definitely allowed more attacks on her motivations, which didn't work when Labour voted for it too.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
"Losing to a twenty year old Tory in Glasgow for the first time in modern history proves Labour isn't left wing enough....."
Not orange enough. And they tried so hard..
Do you think the orange vote still exists in West Scotland?
If you really have to ask that question, you should also probably ask yourself why Glasgow SCons have made such a concerted effort to court this semi mythical vote.
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!
I've said it before, but I cannot see any constitutional reason why that would have happened.
Callaghan did not hand over to Thatcher after he lost the no-confidence vote in 1979 and nothing in the FTPA suggests, to me, there would be any difference.
That was because Callaghan had the option of a Dissolution. The effect of the FTPA was to remove that automatic option - but it did not interfere with the established precedent that a Government defeated in the Commons has to resign in the absence of a Dissolution!
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
No as just under half those LD local voters are Tory national voters, add them to the Tory total and you get the Tories on 45% or so and the LDs on 11% which is closer to what general election polls are showing. In Scotland the Tories are now the largest party in Perth, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, East Renfrewshire and Aberdeenshire and tied with the SNP in Stirling and just behind in Moray and Edinburgh (where they will get unionist tactical votes) so the results today show them well on track for the 5-10 seat total they are aiming for in Scotland
It approximately consists of wards Conisbrough, Edlington, Finningley, Hatfield, Rossington, Thorne and Tickhill but is on the previously set of wards which are somewhat more favourable to the Conservatives.
It approximately consists of wards Conisbrough, Edlington, Finningley, Hatfield, Rossington, Thorne and Tickhill but is on the previously set of wards which are somewhat more favourable to the Conservatives.
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Certainly I don't think they could have done worse. Also certainly, the attempts to suggest May was acting in a sinister fashion by holding an election wold have been slightly less laughable had the Tories had to force it through parliament, rather than some Lab MPs voting for it, then saying it was like a dictator.
Indeed - but had May insisted on proceeding with her election plans via the No Confidence route I believe he could have ended up as PM for a short period. The constitutional chaos would likely have been blamed on her!
No, he couldn't.
No, it wouldn't (because it wouldn't have happened).
Yes he could. Read the constitutional precedents before saying that. Rod Crosby formerly of this parish agrees with me , and I believe that David Herdson holds views on this not very different to my own. Corbyn just showed his ignorance and why he is so unfitted to the position he holds.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, it really is odd.
On the swing implied by the BBC figures the Tories would get nowhere near taking Copeland and yet the opinion polls and the betting suggest a swing well in excess of the 7% that they got there.
I focus on the swing because it allows for the fact that people may consistently vote differently in locals and the GE (especially for independents) but a 2.5% swing between 2015 and now doesn't 'feel' right.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
There were strong arguments before yesterday that the NEV would show the ceiling for Lab & LD and the floor for Con.
Salmond thought he was a man of destiny but wasn't. He can't handle it.
He even had the helicopter booked, ready to fly him from his constituency to Stirling Castle. lol.
To be fair that has got to hurt, he really thought - the private polls were telling him - that he was going to pull off the most astonishing win in modern British history. In the end, the man that did that was the loathsome English stockbroker, Nigel Farage.
Ouch.
No the man that did was that laughed at English Eton educated buffoon, Boris Johnson.
So are we now blaming Brexit on Henry VI?
Well, if he hadn't lost France we would have been able to rule it and there would have been a proper US of Europe based on London rather than some rubbishy French construct based on Brussels.
So obviously it must be his fault.
Actually, I think it was a fortunate defeat. I think if the Plantagenets had won France, England would have become a backwater. The Court would have been in Paris.
If York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire...
York had remained the centre of the Roman Empire? Remained? Have you been spending time with Mr. Morris_Dancer?
Not intentionally.
Mmmmmm? Ok then, but posting Romano-Yorkshire propaganda like that just invites suspicion.
Mind you, on a happy note, providing you don't let him stray into Yorkshire "nationalism", Mr. Dancer's company is very enjoyable and I seek it out whenever I am in striking distance of Leeds. He also, in case you didn't know, writes jolly good books and sells them for stupidly small prices on Amazon under the pen name of Thaddeus White (no, I don't know why either).
It approximately consists of wards Conisbrough, Edlington, Finningley, Hatfield, Rossington, Thorne and Tickhill but is on the previously set of wards which are somewhat more favourable to the Conservatives.
I see Labour gained seats there. TP may well be keeping his day job.
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.
Got a bone to pick with you. "I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world" got seriously close to getting a rendention in Edinburgh Sheriff Court today. Would have made the case marginally more surreal than it was already.
Snaring TSE and DavidL in consecutive posts. That's a fine day's work.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, it really is odd.
On the swing implied by the BBC figures the Tories would get nowhere near taking Copeland and yet the opinion polls and the betting suggest a swing well in excess of the 7% that they got there.
I focus on the swing because it allows for the fact that people may consistently vote differently in locals and the GE (especially for independents) but a 2.5% swing between 2015 and now doesn't 'feel' right.
Don't rely on the betting. In 2010, the spreads were suggesting Labour winning a maximum of 215. They won 258.
The question is how the Labour 27 and LD 18 is distributed.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, it really is odd.
On the swing implied by the BBC figures the Tories would get nowhere near taking Copeland and yet the opinion polls and the betting suggest a swing well in excess of the 7% that they got there.
I focus on the swing because it allows for the fact that people may consistently vote differently in locals and the GE (especially for independents) but a 2.5% swing between 2015 and now doesn't 'feel' right.
Don't rely on the betting. In 2010, the spreads were suggesting Labour winning a maximum of 215. They won 258.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
The Conservatives won the West Midlands and Teesside. That points to 400 or so seats.
Not according to Baxter it doesn't, nowhere near, using the BBC's share of the vote percentages, which I have to say look very suspicious with the LibDems on a whopping 18%.
And how many extra councillors did that 18% get the LibDems ?
The swings were usually higher where it hurt Labour most while Labour had good results in Cambridge, Oxford, Exeter and Norwich - how many Conservative targets among those ?
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
Yes, but the Opposition can't credibly oppose an election indefinitely, they'd look even more absurd than they are already. Mrs May would have called the dissolution vote every month and brought the subject up every day over the spring and summer.
FWIW I think she would have eventually gone down the "Repeal the FTPA" route rather than the absurd "No-confidence my own government" route. Way too many unknowns in the latter case, and she'd have got a couple of dozen helpful new Tory peers included in the deal.
That's rubbish. Corbyn could easily have said that this is the law of the land and we will not vote to change it. If you want an election so badly then vote in a confidence motion against your own government.
Corbyn is a dickhead.
I agree that Corbyn could have made life worse for the PM if he had wanted to, but it would have been clear it was for the blantantly partisan motives he would have accused the PM of having. I still suspect that Corbyn may well have had a tip-off on the election announcement (under Privy Council rules) and had agreed to vote with the PM before the announcement was made.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Putting in local election figures into a general election predictor is utterly futile.
These are not local election figures. Labour did not receive 27% of the votes yesterday. The NEV is calculated form the swings in selected wards compared to 2015 election.
The BBC share of votes is indeed Con 38, Lab 27, LD 18, UKIP 5.
Where did the LD get all these votes ?
Remain is indeed more than Leave since all Brexiters are voting Tory. Only the Remain vote is split.
Aren't these figures, if correct, desperately disappointing for the Tories? Plug them into Baxter, allowing say 3% for the Greens, and you get 337 Tory seats, giving them a majority of just 24. But it's actually worse than that since the great metropolis didn't vote today, which had it done so would have skewed the outcome further against the Blue Team. The only saving grace on the other side of the coin is that the SNP is shown as retaining 56 of Scotland's 59 seats, whereas the consensus is that the Tories will win between 5 - 10 of these. Even so, we're still light years away from any sort of landslide. Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads. Should you do likewise DYOR.
Yes, Baxtering it has kept me off the Spin markets.
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
Labour is still very strong in the inner cities and declining conurbation suburbs.
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
That would make sense if his party was 3% - 5% adrift in the polls - it makes no sense at all when trailing by over 20%! What on earth did he have to lose?
As an aside, let's imagine that the LDs end up sub 10 seats again. (Which - although my forecast is 12-15 seats - is very much a possibility.)
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
Multiple Clegg-asms?!
I wonder if Clegg wouldn't actually be that bad of a choice. Yes he was clearly toxic during the coalition years, and he has to take ultimate responsibility for a disastrous 2015 campaign (and a somewhat wasted opportunity in 2010), but the LDs have few MPs of gravitas. Perhaps an ex Deputy PM would at least be a more recognisable choice, and the coalition years and tuition fees are ancient history. If Cable did make it back in and Norman Lamb doesn't, then it should be him.
A banana skin that's fallen out of the dustbin of history.
Got a bone to pick with you. "I'm a barbie girl, in a barbie world" got seriously close to getting a rendention in Edinburgh Sheriff Court today. Would have made the case marginally more surreal than it was already.
Snaring TSE and DavidL in consecutive posts. That's a fine day's work.
That bloody blue song's been in my damn head all day too!
Dodgy '90's lyrics should be banned before lunchtime
The big puzzlement to me, which was symptomatic of his leadership, was why he didn't insist on the vote of no confidence in the Tory Government route without which the PM could not have proceeded with a dissolution of Parliament. A truly bizarre decision and I just wonder whether it resulted from his being sick and tired of the whole damn business and that he just wanted out asap. I wonder whether we'll ever know?
Because he would have looked like an even bigger joke than he does now if he did that.
After spending months calling for an election since May became PM, to turn one down would have been fatal.
But that's the whole point, he wouldn't have been turning down a GE, instead he would have been seen, for once, as calling the shots. After all just about everyone on PB.com from OGH downwards had long been telling us that it was virtually impossible for the Tories to engineer an election prior to 2020 and here was Corbyn's golden chance to show just for once that he was in charge of events, which he most assuredly was, or at least could have been.
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In some ways this is reminiscent of the electoral coalition of the mid-Thatcherite period, but there is a difference. There isn't the vehement loathing or division that Thatcherism engendered in many parts of society. Sure, there are a group who still believe anything the Tories do is the work of Satan, but the... hatred... doesn't seem quite as strong as it used to be. Is the ghost of Maggie finally being laid to rest by another female PM?
'John McDonnell gets bigger Labour role after local election failures'
Maybe we will get to hear more about how much he admires the way the economy has been run in Venezuela.
'Venezuela: Labour's socialist utopia is a violent, poverty-stricken failed ...
www.express.co.uk › News › World
3 Jan 2016 - Yet for many in the UK, Venezuela is the poster child of what socialism can ... John McDonnell giving him a hero's welcome on a visit to the UK..
Whether she becomes Maggie in 1990 depends on Brexit
And they tried so hard..
Now, given than Norman Lamb will almost certainly be seat-less in that scenario, who will be the next LibDem leader?
Clegg again?
https://twitter.com/LabourList/status/860581007547928578
FWIW I think she would have eventually gone down the "Repeal the FTPA" route rather than the absurd "No-confidence my own government" route. Way too many unknowns in the latter case, and she'd have got a couple of dozen helpful new Tory peers included in the deal.
https://twitter.com/libdemdeposits
https://twitter.com/normanlamb/status/860517561452171264
The next leader if there was no Lamb would be Greg Mulholland.
2. The Remain/Leave narrative doesn't fly. You'd be entitled to believe that what's left of the Ukip vote is practically all Leave, but that's about it. The two large parties' support is split, and I imagine that even the Lib Dem share contains a substantial number of Leave voters at local level, who like the party and/or the idea of effective opposition for the council. Lib Dem Leave voters and Labour loyalists who detest Corbyn might both back those parties in local government elections, but sit on their hands or vote Conservative at the General Election.
You could more cogently argue that the combined Left vote is higher than the combined Right vote in this round of elections, but even then the waters are muddied by the presence of a lot of independents and local ratepayers' or residents' candidates.
Corbyn is a dickhead.
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Congratulations to all the Orangemen and Friends elected to their local council today. This organisation is alive and kicking.
Hmm .... let me have another look at those circa 400 Tory seat spreads.
Should you do likewise DYOR.
I saw that the Conservatives won in the posh part of Chesterfield.
How many years since that happened ?
The Brum Mayoral election was closer than I expected.
http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/services/the-council-democracy/local-elections-2017
It approximately consists of wards Conisbrough, Edlington, Finningley, Hatfield, Rossington, Thorne and Tickhill but is on the previously set of wards which are somewhat more favourable to the Conservatives.
They had a mayoral election yesterday.
Labour won it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-39791391
On the swing implied by the BBC figures the Tories would get nowhere near taking Copeland and yet the opinion polls and the betting suggest a swing well in excess of the 7% that they got there.
I focus on the swing because it allows for the fact that people may consistently vote differently in locals and the GE (especially for independents) but a 2.5% swing between 2015 and now doesn't 'feel' right.
I think they are still valid.
Mind you, on a happy note, providing you don't let him stray into Yorkshire "nationalism", Mr. Dancer's company is very enjoyable and I seek it out whenever I am in striking distance of Leeds. He also, in case you didn't know, writes jolly good books and sells them for stupidly small prices on Amazon under the pen name of Thaddeus White (no, I don't know why either).
The question is how the Labour 27 and LD 18 is distributed.
The swings were usually higher where it hurt Labour most while Labour had good results in Cambridge, Oxford, Exeter and Norwich - how many Conservative targets among those ?
Dodgy '90's lyrics should be banned before lunchtime
On how the Conservatives are sending Theresa May to Labour-held seats with chunky Ukip votes available for her to steal.