politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the
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Which is especially bad for UKIP given its a shire counties election with no metro areas like Londonold_labour said:
Thanks.AndyJS said:
LDs should be ahead on national projected share I think.old_labour said:
Do you reckon Ukip will be ahead of the Lib Dems? Enjoying your spreadsheet as well as @RobD'sAndyJS said:
UKIP are going to get about 10% of the vote and hardly any seats. Maybe the same thing will happen to the LDs at the general election...old_labour said:Daniel Chapman @DanielChappers 56s57 seconds ago
UKIP's Lisa Duffy on party losing all #LocalElections2017 seats so far: "I won't use the word disaster, I use the word challenging"#LE20170 -
It could well be decided on the 2nd prefs of the indy candidate.Artist said:
It was strongly expected to be the Lib Dem candidate in the run off. Surprising result.brokenwheel said:
From another place:MikeL said:I THINK Sky said West of England Mayor Round 1 was:
Con 28
Lab 22
LD 20
Ind 14
Green 11
UKIP 4
Con 53,796 (27.3%)
Lab 43,627 (22.2%)
Lib 39,794 (20.2%)
Ind 29,500 (15.0%)
Grn 22,054 (11.2%)
UKIP 8,182 (4.2%)
Judging by his website he looks more con-friendly than lab-friendly to me.
I'm pretty much clueless, though!0 -
Looks like a 7% swing from Lab to Con in the Rumney ward in Cardiff which is in the Cardiff South & Penarth constituency.0
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Sky- Tories predicting big gains in Bridgend.0
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666 seats declared in my spreadsheet. Time for a proper break I think
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Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/8603335524156579840 -
Do one more and avoid the sign of the Beast.RobD said:666 seats declared in my spreadsheet. Time for a proper break I think
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We'll see if Northumberland declares an additional seat in the next few mins. Otherwise I'm gonna kip for a couple of hours0
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So far Labour have lost 56% of the seats declared where they were defending a majority of less than 25% in areas not affected by boundary changes. In England it's 66%, in Wales 50%.0
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Patrick English @PME_Politics
Conservative swings biggest in high leave vote areas. They're up only ~5% where remain had majority, but ~15% where leave was > ~60% #GE2010 -
Interesting. As expected in many ways but nice to see it confirmed.CarlottaVance said:Patrick English @PME_Politics
Conservative swings biggest in high leave vote areas. They're up only ~5% where remain had majority, but ~15% where leave was > ~60% #GE2010 -
Map showing changes in Cumbria from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/8603379593500057610 -
Funny, butMTimT said:
never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.
M. Thatcher0 -
IndeedCarlottaVance said:
Funny, butMTimT said:
never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.
M. Thatcher0 -
She was quite happy to whip up homophobia against queer kids.CarlottaVance said:
Funny, butMTimT said:
never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.
M. Thatcher
We had no right to be gay, apparently.0 -
Latest Curtice summary:
"The Conservatives look set to have their best local election results for 10 years, possibly for 25 years, Professor of politics John Curtice says.
But Labour looks set to perform worse than the last time these seats were contested in England in 2013, he says, adding that while the party's vote has held up in some places, it has also fallen apart in areas it had been vulnerable before.
The performance of the Lib Dems has been up and down, Prof Curtice says. "The trouble is the Tories are bouncing so strongly, any improvement is not enough to win the seats."
UKIP, meanwhile, "has lost everything they've been trying to defend", he adds."
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It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
It looks a deeply frustrating night for the Lib Dems with an improvement in votes but a slight slip back in trying to repair the damage done to their local authority base in the Coalition years.
For Labour this is at the bottom end of grim. And for UKIP at the top end of oblivion.0 -
Thatcher voted for the decriminalisation of homosexuality in 1967 - one of the few Conservatives to do so.Pong said:
She was quite happy to whip up homophobia against queer kids.CarlottaVance said:
Funny, butMTimT said:
never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.
M. Thatcher
We had no right to be gay, apparently.
The Stop Aids campaign she approved (on the urging of Norman Fowler) saved the lives of tens of thousands of gay men.
But those 'details' get forgotten by the Left......0 -
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.0 -
Only by 1 percent in the local election poll. 10 percent was for the GE. I think.MikeL said:
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.0 -
Thrasher: LDs would not have won Yeovil parliamentary constituency on tonight's figures.0
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Guardian:
Results so far in England
Ten councils declared: nine (Dorset, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Isle of Wight, Lincolnshire, Somerset, Warwickshire) for the Tories; one (Cumbria) NOC.
With counting ongoing, here’s the latest councillor numbers:
Conservatives 433 seats (+105)
Liberal Democrats 101 (-9)
Labour 67 (-45)
Independent 34 (-15)
Greens 10 (+5)
Residents’ Association 1 (-2)
Ukip 0 (-39)
In counting so far, Ukip has lost every seat it had held.0 -
OK - yes - fair enough.midwinter said:
Only by 1 percent in the local election poll. 10 percent was for the GE. I think.MikeL said:
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.0 -
Not in the poll for the council elections. The 10 per cent lead was in Westminster VI. The local election poll had Labour 2 per cent ahead IIRC, and (rightly), a much higher Independent vote.MikeL said:
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.0 -
Guardian:
Results so far in Wales
With nine councils declared:
Newport and Neath Port Talbot for Labour.
Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil for independents.
Monmouthshire for the Consevatives.
Bridgend, Ceredigion, Wrexham and Flintshire all NOC.
Here are the councillors totals so far across Wales, with counting ongoing:
Labour 257 seats (-67)
Independent 151 (+40)
Conservative 83 (+25)
Plaid Cymru 41 (+11)
Liberal Democrat 29 (-7)
Ukip 0 (-2)0 -
Yes, Plaid are apparently complaining some of their vote went Labour to prop them up. No idea if that's true. You also have a more fractured non-Labour vote. Labour aren't doing well, but the the main beneficiary are Independents.MikeL said:
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.0 -
After years of hearing endlessly about the 'anti-Tory majority' this is proving an enjoyable evening.david_herdson said:
a much higher Independent vote.MikeL said:
I'm not sure Con is matching expectations in Wales.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
Sky don't think so - they have Lab holding up pretty well though that seemed to be based on only fairly few councils which have fully declared or where overall result is known.
But big picture doesn't seem to be Con ahead in Wales - whereas they led by 10% in YouGov Wales poll.
'Not Labour' are doing very well0 -
Wales appears to be a very mixed picture, although a lot of the authorities (especially rural ones) don't seem to have started counting overnight. The Conservatives have taken Monmouthshire, with gains against all parties including the Liberal Democrats (who will be disappointed, especially given that it was one of the few counting areas in Wales to back Remain.) Labour are apparently doing OK in Flintshire, in Cardiff, and may even increase their majority in Swansea. On the other hand, there have been several nasty reversals against Independents (Wrexham, Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil.) It remains to be seen to what extent strong performances by Independents, and also by Plaid Cymru (who traditionally under-perform at General Elections) might be masking the Tories' potential to do well next month. In any event, the ballot in June will be about picking a Government, not a local authority.DavidL said:It does seem that the Tories are going to exceed expectations in England and just about match expectations in Wales where the sharp rise of the Independents is complicating the picture more than somewhat. What will Scotland do?
It looks a deeply frustrating night for the Lib Dems with an improvement in votes but a slight slip back in trying to repair the damage done to their local authority base in the Coalition years.
For Labour this is at the bottom end of grim. And for UKIP at the top end of oblivion.
The Lib Dem performance is patchy. Concentrating strength in some areas, including target seats (apparently they've had a good night in Cheltenham and in Lewes, for example,) but suffering reversals in others. They also failed to make the run off for the West of England metro mayor, which will be a real disappointment given that they were fancied to make a fight of it with the Conservatives.
Rumours emanating from Scotland that Labour *might* be bleeding a significant amount of support to the Conservatives, as part of a process of consolidation along Unionist/Nationalist lines, but since Scotland hasn't started counting yet no more can be said than that.
Story of Ukip so far is one of total collapse. No gains, and have lost every seat so far declared that they were defending.0 -
A reminder, here's the Yougov polls including the local election question:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/8601412058369228800 -
Fergus Hewison @BBCFHewison 9m9 minutes ago
Lab figures concede likely will no longer be largest party on Northumberland Council. Lab ran minority administration. #LocalElections2017
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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Guardian:
Labour loses Bridgend to NOC
Though still the biggest party, Labour dropped from 39 seats to 26 and with that lost its majority.
The Tories leapt by 10 to take them to 11 seats, though independent candidates pipped them with 13.
Bridgend’s assembly member is Carwyn Jones, first Minister and Welsh Labour leader, so the result will be a further disappointment on a mostly cheerless night.
'mostly cheerless night'?
That's one way of putting it.......0 -
This map of Lincs shows the kipper wipeout well:MikeL said:Latest Curtice summary:
"The Conservatives look set to have their best local election results for 10 years, possibly for 25 years, Professor of politics John Curtice says.
But Labour looks set to perform worse than the last time these seats were contested in England in 2013, he says, adding that while the party's vote has held up in some places, it has also fallen apart in areas it had been vulnerable before.
The performance of the Lib Dems has been up and down, Prof Curtice says. "The trouble is the Tories are bouncing so strongly, any improvement is not enough to win the seats."
UKIP, meanwhile, "has lost everything they've been trying to defend", he adds."
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Seems to be a lot of boundary changes.0 -
LDs losing in Copeland but gaining in Farron land by the look of it.old_labour said:Map showing changes in Cumbria from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/8603379593500057610 -
If this is Lib Dem outperformance at local elections, well...0
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How does the Mayoral system work - elimination of bottom ranked candidates in turn, or elimination of all but top two after the first round?0
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It was all but top two in West of England.CarlottaVance said:How does the Mayoral system work - elimination of bottom ranked candidates in turn, or elimination of all but top two after the first round?
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All politics is local (Guardian):
Here’s a snippet from Blaenau Gwent, where Labour lost out to the independents. It’s a reminder that it’s not all about Jeremy Corbyn v Theresa May and Brexit. BBC Wales’ Rhodri Lewis, who was at the count, suggested it could be down to the previous Labour administration’s three-weekly bin collections:
People around here are not necessarily anti-Corbyn. They voted Labour out because of the bin collections.
I was told that the council is still getting 100 complaints a week about the new bin collections.0 -
English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)0 -
All but top two as long as no one gets over 50% in first round, same as London.CarlottaVance said:How does the Mayoral system work - elimination of bottom ranked candidates in turn, or elimination of all but top two after the first round?
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Conservatives win West of England mayoralty
Tim Bowles, on 70,300 votes, win it from Labour’s Lesley Mansell, on 65,923, in the second round.
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Everyone drowning in a sea of blue on election maps in England. I think LDs holding up better than most so farAlastairMeeks said:If this is Lib Dem outperformance at local elections, well...
twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860348867442647041
I see LDs and Greens up gain one each on Isle of Wight. Big losses by independents.0 -
I was expecting Labour to win that with LD and Green transfers. Surprising.old_labour said:Conservatives win West of England mayoralty
Tim Bowles, on 70,300 votes, win it from Labour’s Lesley Mansell, on 65,923, in the second round.0 -
Evil Empire 1, Progressive Alliance 0.AndyJS said:
I was expecting Labour to win that with LD and Green transfers. Surprising.old_labour said:Conservatives win West of England mayoralty
Tim Bowles, on 70,300 votes, win it from Labour’s Lesley Mansell, on 65,923, in the second round.0 -
It will be interesting to see where the transfers came from.AndyJS said:
I was expecting Labour to win that with LD and Green transfers. Surprising.old_labour said:Conservatives win West of England mayoralty
Tim Bowles, on 70,300 votes, win it from Labour’s Lesley Mansell, on 65,923, in the second round.0 -
I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
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Surrey, Cornwall and Oxfordshire may give the Lib Dems a small net gain in England.Black_Rook said:English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)0 -
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.MikeL said:I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?0 -
West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.0
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1. It's a local, not a general, election. The Conservatives are likely to do better at the GE.MikeL said:I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
2. Labour candidate probably buoyed by leftist second preferences.
Edit:
@britainelects
Tories take West of England mayoralty - second preferences for Labour (though more than Con) not enough.0 -
As was predicted by others, but not by me, last night I failed to take Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale from Nick Cotton of the LDs - congratulations to Nick. I haven't studied the results outside South Lakeland in detail and I certainly haven't studied the non-LD facing divisions.foxinsoxuk said:
LDs losing in Copeland but gaining in Farron land by the look of it.old_labour said:Map showing changes in Cumbria from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860337959350005761
My result was Con 1163, LD 1263, Lab 91, Green 60. I guess my vote share was down slightly as well because it was a straight fight four years ago. The turnout was key at 55.1%. I THINK that was higher than anywhere else in South Lakeland and probably the county. That reflects two very strong campaigns against each other.
I will continue in another comment.0 -
Yes - it's those three.AndyJS said:
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.MikeL said:I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
North Somerset voted against.0 -
Thanks - hence the relatively swift West of England Mayorality after the first round.brokenwheel said:
All but top two as long as no one gets over 50% in first round, same as London.CarlottaVance said:How does the Mayoral system work - elimination of bottom ranked candidates in turn, or elimination of all but top two after the first round?
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@View_From_Cumbria - so very close! Will you try again?0
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More a Traitorous Alliance than a Progressive one.....AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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Extinction for the kippers, including in IoW, Boston and Skegness where they placed in second in the GE. Doesn't look good for Nuttall.Black_Rook said:English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)0 -
Imagine if they actually get zero seats.foxinsoxuk said:
Extinction for the kippers, including in IoW, Boston and Skegness where they placed in second in the GE. Doesn't look good for Nuttall.Black_Rook said:English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)
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Glen O'Hara @gsoh31
That West of England Metro Mayoralty loss will really hurt #Labour, and the #LibDems too.
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Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate got a couple more percent (>from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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Very possible by the look of it! If the Lincs coast is so blue, then surely other parts of the East coast will be similar.RobD said:
Imagine if they actually get zero seats.foxinsoxuk said:
Extinction for the kippers, including in IoW, Boston and Skegness where they placed in second in the GE. Doesn't look good for Nuttall.Black_Rook said:English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)0 -
21st century socialism is sweeping Keswick in the Lake District. Labour gain by 300 votes:
http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/division.asp?division=Keswick&district=Allerdale&title=Keswick0 -
It's quite possible. Have lost everything they were defending in Essex as well.RobD said:
Imagine if they actually get zero seats.foxinsoxuk said:
Extinction for the kippers, including in IoW, Boston and Skegness where they placed in second in the GE. Doesn't look good for Nuttall.Black_Rook said:English council results @ 05:30
Con 433 (+105)
Lab 67 (-45)
LD 101 (-9)
Green 10 (+5)
Ukip 0 (-39)
Other 35 (-17)
The control of ten of the councils being contested has so far been established:
Con 9 (+4)
NOC 1 (-4)0 -
The difference between full AV and a top 2 runoff? Can we have a thread on this :-)Pong said:
Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate had got a couple more percent (from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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Which goes to prove:AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
1. That SV is a stupid system - how many Green transfers went to the Lib Dems on the erroneous assumption that they'd be in the second round, and
2. That the idea of a Progessive movement is tosh: voters simply don't think in those terms and plenty of LD and Labour voters from 2010 (say) are willing to consider Con or UKIP as possible recipients of their vote.0 -
Sampling suggests Lab retain 7 of 9 seats in Chesterfield with the 8th too close to call previously had 8. In the 9th Lab move up to a strong 2nd from 3rd.0
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Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.AndyJS said:
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.MikeL said:I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?0 -
At the declaration it sounded like a lot of second preferences were discounted. So I guess there would be people voting Lib Dem thinking they were more likely to make the run off. A very silly electoral system.Pong said:
Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate got a couple more percent (>from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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It seems to me that if you're going to have a preferential system you need to do it properly as they do in Australian federal elections and force everyone to rank every candidate. Having only a first and second choice is neither here nor there, so to speak.Pong said:
Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate got a couple more percent (>from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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@PaulWaugh:
UKIP go from 26% to zero and looks like Cons grabbed most of it. Key marginal which Jeremy Corbyn visited just a week ago.
Harlow North (Essex) Con GAIN from Labour
Con 51%
Lab 41%
LD 8%
Labour up 4% from 2013; Con up 23%; UKIP did not stand0 -
Okay thanks, I won't bother adding up the numbers myself.brokenwheel said:
Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.AndyJS said:
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.MikeL said:I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?0 -
Yes, though to be fair after seeing how some people plan to use their second vote i'm not sure how it works has effectively been communicated. It only matters if your 1st preference isn't in the final two and your 2nd preference likely is, otherwise it is pointless.tlg86 said:
At the declaration it sounded like a lot of second preferences were discounted. So I guess there would be people voting Lib Dem thinking they were more likely to make the run off. A very silly electoral system.Pong said:
Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate got a couple more percent (>from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.AndyJS said:West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
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twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/860318364027281408
Good LD performance in Eastleigh.
5/1 for LDs with PP for the GE. I am not sure if Mike Thornton is standing again.
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I've not seen any forced-choice questions recently but on leader rating, LDs split by about 2:1 for May over Corbyn so at best, you can say that the LD-Lab 'alliance' should never be assumed (you'd think that 2010-15 might have put that myth to bed but apparently, no), and that it's very dependent on the relative quality of the Con and Lab candidates / national party standing.AndyJS said:
I was expecting Labour to win that with LD and Green transfers. Surprising.old_labour said:Conservatives win West of England mayoralty
Tim Bowles, on 70,300 votes, win it from Labour’s Lesley Mansell, on 65,923, in the second round.0 -
Patrick English @PME_Politics
Butler swing in England: 7.4% (to Conservatives), Butler swing in Wales: 4.6%. Can Labour take positives from that?
(Posted about an hour ago.)
We should remind ourselves once again that these are local election results and things may not develop in the same way next month; HOWEVER... not looking brilliant for Labour, is it?0 -
The Tories took 4 seats off Labour in Bridgend with big swings of 10%+, in Litchard, Brackla, Newcastle and Penprysg.
https://www.bridgend.gov.uk/media-centre/2017/may-2017/election-results.aspx
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2012/405/0 -
My result was replicated thoughout South Lakeland but the Cons made two gains and no losses. The gains were Windermere and High Furness, the former won by a candidate who had stood in two by-elections for the same division during the last council term. Other Tories greatly reduced the LD majorities most ominously in Kendal South and Kendal Castle - the latter a totally paper candidate. Windermere is wholly within Westmorland and Lonsdale and High Furness partially within W&L.
This loss of two seats was made up with two gains elsewhere in Cumbria. One in Eden, Appleby would be in the presumably soon to be abandoned 2020 boundaries of W and L.
Clearly as Cons we would have hoped to have made greater inroads against the LDs. In my case S&KL, in spite of the high turnout many Brexiteers from last June chose not to turn out for me yesterday - the challenge for my party and Theresa is to get them out for James Airey on June 8.
Meanwhile, and I understand it happened elsewhere the Westmorland Gazette had a wraparound paid for presumably by the Con national campaign. That surprised us as Cons but shows the importance the national party puts in at least discomforting the LD leader.
The irony of this is that the other controvertial aspect of my prediction - the LDs would not gain county seats has proved true and unless the results today vary widely from the over night ones it is difficult to believe the LDs will not lose parliamentary seats at the GE.0 -
According to Wikipedia = yes!foxinsoxuk said:twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/860318364027281408
Good LD performance in Eastleigh.
5/1 for LDs with PP for the GE. I am not sure if Mike Thornton is standing again.0 -
We should remind ourselves that these were elections where a vote for Labour didn't risk putting Corbyn into No 10.Black_Rook said:Patrick English @PME_Politics
Butler swing in England: 7.4% (to Conservatives), Butler swing in Wales: 4.6%. Can Labour take positives from that?
(Posted about an hour ago.)
We should remind ourselves once again that these are local election results and things may not develop in the same way next month; HOWEVER... not looking brilliant for Labour, is it?
And that in a recent Welsh poll, Labour was 2% ahead for the locals and 10% behind for the GE.0 -
Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.0 -
A question about this map: I understand Lincolnshire has had boundary changes internally, but has it had external boundary changes as well? The shape of the map is different, especially a promontory in the southeast and a little detail in the north .old_labour said:Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Or is it just a cartographic error?
(Hardly the most important question of the morning, but I love maps).0 -
So, has it been " a terrible night for the Conservatives" anywhere?
Is there a projected Nation vote share?0 -
Not to mention two extra peninsulas!foxinsoxuk said:
This map of Lincs shows the kipper wipeout well:MikeL said:Latest Curtice summary:
"The Conservatives look set to have their best local election results for 10 years, possibly for 25 years, Professor of politics John Curtice says.
But Labour looks set to perform worse than the last time these seats were contested in England in 2013, he says, adding that while the party's vote has held up in some places, it has also fallen apart in areas it had been vulnerable before.
The performance of the Lib Dems has been up and down, Prof Curtice says. "The trouble is the Tories are bouncing so strongly, any improvement is not enough to win the seats."
UKIP, meanwhile, "has lost everything they've been trying to defend", he adds."
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Seems to be a lot of boundary changes.0 -
I would assume the external boundary was fixed, but I could be wrong.JosiasJessop said:
A question about this map: I understand Lincolnshire has had boundary changes internally, but has it had external boundary changes as well? The shape of the map is different, especially a promontory in the southeast and a little detail in the north .old_labour said:Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Or is it just a cartographic error?
(Hardly the most important question of the morning, but I love maps).0 -
All absolutely correct.david_herdson said:
We should remind ourselves that these were elections where a vote for Labour didn't risk putting Corbyn into No 10.Black_Rook said:Patrick English @PME_Politics
Butler swing in England: 7.4% (to Conservatives), Butler swing in Wales: 4.6%. Can Labour take positives from that?
(Posted about an hour ago.)
We should remind ourselves once again that these are local election results and things may not develop in the same way next month; HOWEVER... not looking brilliant for Labour, is it?
And that in a recent Welsh poll, Labour was 2% ahead for the locals and 10% behind for the GE.
The main task for those of us who want to see Labour punished for Corbyn is not to get too excited. A month is a very long time in politics!0 -
Correction to my result Nick Cotton had 1253 votes not 1263.0
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He's not going anywhere. In all senses of the term.Roger said:Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.0 -
Corbyn? Do the decent thing? I suppose there's a first time for everything.Roger said:Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.
RLB. Agree completely. Though Labour does have sensible options too. Whether it chooses to take one of them is another matter.
No, Davis is very far from that. I could name 10 off the top of my head who'd beat him on that score. I could probably name 100 given a bit of time.0 -
Thanks. And thanks for all your work.RobD said:
I would assume the external boundary was fixed, but I could be wrong.JosiasJessop said:
A question about this map: I understand Lincolnshire has had boundary changes internally, but has it had external boundary changes as well? The shape of the map is different, especially a promontory in the southeast and a little detail in the north .old_labour said:Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Or is it just a cartographic error?
(Hardly the most important question of the morning, but I love maps).0 -
Looks congruent to me. It is a great twitter for cartophiles!JosiasJessop said:
A question about this map: I understand Lincolnshire has had boundary changes internally, but has it had external boundary changes as well? The shape of the map is different, especially a promontory in the southeast and a little detail in the north .old_labour said:Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Or is it just a cartographic error?
(Hardly the most important question of the morning, but I love maps).0 -
Yes, they're the things that I first noted. I'm trying to work out where they are: are they along the Haven from Boston (if you know the area there's a massive tip there), or are they jutting out into the Wash for some reason?Freggles said:
Not to mention two extra peninsulas!foxinsoxuk said:
This map of Lincs shows the kipper wipeout well:MikeL said:Latest Curtice summary:
"The Conservatives look set to have their best local election results for 10 years, possibly for 25 years, Professor of politics John Curtice says.
But Labour looks set to perform worse than the last time these seats were contested in England in 2013, he says, adding that while the party's vote has held up in some places, it has also fallen apart in areas it had been vulnerable before.
The performance of the Lib Dems has been up and down, Prof Curtice says. "The trouble is the Tories are bouncing so strongly, any improvement is not enough to win the seats."
UKIP, meanwhile, "has lost everything they've been trying to defend", he adds."
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Seems to be a lot of boundary changes.
This bothers me more than it should ... 0 -
Calm before the storm. I'll probably be less efficient if they all start returning simultaneously. Still, I do like to try and beat the BBC to declaring a council a hold/gain.JosiasJessop said:
Thanks. And thanks for all your work.RobD said:
I would assume the external boundary was fixed, but I could be wrong.JosiasJessop said:
A question about this map: I understand Lincolnshire has had boundary changes internally, but has it had external boundary changes as well? The shape of the map is different, especially a promontory in the southeast and a little detail in the north .old_labour said:Map of changes in Lincs from 2013 to 2017.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Or is it just a cartographic error?
(Hardly the most important question of the morning, but I love maps).
0 -
In the Wash by the look of the map. Was it drawn at low tide?Freggles said:
Not to mention two extra peninsulas!foxinsoxuk said:
This map of Lincs shows the kipper wipeout well:MikeL said:Latest Curtice summary:
"The Conservatives look set to have their best local election results for 10 years, possibly for 25 years, Professor of politics John Curtice says.
But Labour looks set to perform worse than the last time these seats were contested in England in 2013, he says, adding that while the party's vote has held up in some places, it has also fallen apart in areas it had been vulnerable before.
The performance of the Lib Dems has been up and down, Prof Curtice says. "The trouble is the Tories are bouncing so strongly, any improvement is not enough to win the seats."
UKIP, meanwhile, "has lost everything they've been trying to defend", he adds."
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860333552415657984
Seems to be a lot of boundary changes.0 -
0
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She's about the same age as I am but seems a lot younger, completely out of her depth.Roger said:Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.0 -
The results from the Midlands and Lancashire will probably push up the percentage swing against Labour.Black_Rook said:Patrick English @PME_Politics
Butler swing in England: 7.4% (to Conservatives), Butler swing in Wales: 4.6%. Can Labour take positives from that?
(Posted about an hour ago.)
We should remind ourselves once again that these are local election results and things may not develop in the same way next month; HOWEVER... not looking brilliant for Labour, is it?0
