You'd think with Tories hoovering up the ukip vote and accused of doing so with ukip policies, that Con would lose a bit more from the wetter among their ranks, but doesn't seem like all that many are jumping ship. Another terrible omen for LDs of ukippy Tories aren't losing the liberal Tory vote.
can anyone help i'm trying to remember who was the guy who was always on General Election night on TV with pop out eyes and gap in his front teeth it's reallly bugging me
Can someone give me a précis of the results so far?
I went to bed at midnightish.
May has destroyed UKIP.
I'd say it's more that UKIP have taken over the Tory leadership
Good morning all.
I've seen this line being pushed a lot on my Twitter timeline. It's counterproductive. The electorate, for whatever reason, has stopped listening to Labour. That's the kindest interpretation. That they might be listening and being repelled would be worse.
However, this idea that May has now become 'Farage with breasts' butters no parsnips and will win no elections. Labour need to stop blaming the electorate while characterizing them as racists and/or sheeple.
Just back sub 10 seats. If Hallam is gone, Lib Dems are not going to hit 10 seats. Hallam can be held and still sub 10, Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton all more vulnerable.
You'd think with Tories hoovering up the ukip vote and accused of doing so with ukip policies, that Con would lose a bit more from the wetter among their ranks, but doesn't seem like all that many are jumping ship. Another terrible omen for LDs of ukippy Tories aren't losing the liberal Tory vote.
can anyone help i trying to remember who was the guy who was always on General Election night on TV with pop out eyes and gap in his front teeth it's reallly bugging me
I think the LDs will be more stunned by their shocker in Somerset than the WoE mayoralty. They weren't expecting that at all. Chickens coming home to roost...
Just back sub 10 seats. If Hallam is gone, Lib Dems are not going to hit 10 seats. Hallam can be held and still sub 10, Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton all more vulnerable.
can anyone help i trying to remember who was the guy who was always on General Election night on TV with pop out eyes and gap in his front teeth it's reallly bugging me
I think the LDs will be more stunned by their shocker in Somerset than the WoE mayoralty. They weren't expecting that at all. Chickens coming home to roost...
Tessa Munt took Wells by looks of things though. Good for the GE?
Just back sub 10 seats. If Hallam is gone, Lib Dems are not going to hit 10 seats. Hallam can be held and still sub 10, Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton all more vulnerable.
You'd think with Tories hoovering up the ukip vote and accused of doing so with ukip policies, that Con would lose a bit more from the wetter among their ranks, but doesn't seem like all that many are jumping ship. Another terrible omen for LDs of ukippy Tories aren't losing the liberal Tory vote.
But time for counting. Au revoir
Problem is for the anti-tories is that those 'wetter' Tories, are mostly likely to pro-business and educated. They aren't going to go for the left.
They might go for a new-labourish centreish party, but that doesn't exist (at the moment).
can anyone help i trying to remember who was the guy who was always on General Election night on TV with pop out eyes and gap in his front teeth it's reallly bugging me
I think the LDs will be more stunned by their shocker in Somerset than the WoE mayoralty. They weren't expecting that at all. Chickens coming home to roost...
Tessa Munt took Wells by looks of things though. Good for the GE?
No. That is only one division amongst many in that seat. I imagine the activists will be wandering dazed in the Mendips for days to come. Having been kicked hard in the Quantocks..
Alright. Who is ready for the sensational Scottish Tory Surge we will see in the next few hours?
splitting my sides already
Now my ARSE is in retirement, much like Prince Phil - full 24 page pullout out today in the Auchentennach Bugle of my rear wonderment, will you be providing a Turnip-ometer for the general election ?
Good thinking Jack , if only I had the time. PS: Or was any good at technology, still a paper and ink man.
You'd think with Tories hoovering up the ukip vote and accused of doing so with ukip policies, that Con would lose a bit more from the wetter among their ranks, but doesn't seem like all that many are jumping ship. Another terrible omen for LDs of ukippy Tories aren't losing the liberal Tory vote.
But time for counting. Au revoir
Problem is for the anti-tories is that those 'wetter' Tories, are mostly likely to pro-business and educated. They aren't going to go for the left.
They might go for a new-labourish centreish party, but that doesn't exist (at the moment).
Exactly, these Tory wets would have to be soaking to vote for the so-called Liberal Democrats or Corbyn led Labour.
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.
Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
From the results we've seen I don't think the Labour vote is soft enough for Burnham to lose. The Labour vote share would need to be at least at 2010 levels for a chance.
Just back sub 10 seats. If Hallam is gone, Lib Dems are not going to hit 10 seats. Hallam can be held and still sub 10, Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton all more vulnerable.
West of England mayoral election: in the first round the combined share for Lab, LD and Greens was 53.6%.
Yes, it looks to me like if the LD candidate got a couple more percent (>from lab/green) in the 1st round, they may well have beat the conservatives in the 2nd round.
At the declaration it sounded like a lot of second preferences were discounted. So I guess there would be people voting Lib Dem thinking they were more likely to make the run off. A very silly electoral system.
Yes, though to be fair after seeing how some people plan to use their second vote i'm not sure how it works has effectively been communicated. It only matters if your 1st preference isn't in the final two and your 2nd preference likely is, otherwise it is pointless.
Apologies if this has already been pointed out, but only 39% of the potential second preferences in the West of England Mayoral Election actually counted towards the result. You have to think that had the Lib Dems beaten Labour into second then they'd have won.
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
From the results we've seen I don't think the Labour vote is soft enough for Burnham to lose.
Turnout is close to 30% which isn't as bad as feared, should help Burnham.
I think the LDs will be more stunned by their shocker in Somerset than the WoE mayoralty. They weren't expecting that at all. Chickens coming home to roost...
Tessa Munt took Wells by looks of things though. Good for the GE?
No. That is only one division amongst many in that seat. I imagine the activists will be wandering dazed in the Mendips for days to come. Having been kicked hard in the Quantocks..
I think that the LibDem vote will be up generally from 8% come the GE but if they have any sense they will target on places like Wells, Cheltenham, St Albans and Eastleigh where they stand a chance. Some of these are giving good odds and I'm investing a few pounds.
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
From the results we've seen I don't think the Labour vote is soft enough for Burnham to lose. The Labour vote share would need to be at least at 2010 levels for a chance.
You'd think with Tories hoovering up the ukip vote and accused of doing so with ukip policies, that Con would lose a bit more from the wetter among their ranks, but doesn't seem like all that many are jumping ship. Another terrible omen for LDs of ukippy Tories aren't losing the liberal Tory vote.
But time for counting. Au revoir
Problem is for the anti-tories is that those 'wetter' Tories, are mostly likely to pro-business and educated. They aren't going to go for the left.
They might go for a new-labourish centreish party, but that doesn't exist (at the moment).
Exactly, these Tory wets would have to be soaking to vote for the so-called Liberal Democrats or Corbyn led Labour.
Where can I go? Labour seems hell bent on disappearing up its own fundament. The Liberal Democrats have wrapped themselves (pointlessly) in the EU flag, which is not a good enough reason to vote for them. For the first time in my life I'm contemplating abstaining.
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.
Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?
My guess would be lower. There has been zero campaigning that I've seen on Teesside (although admittedly Darlington is at the far end of the region) and even my wife wasn't that bothered about voting - and she even voted in the police commissioners election (admittedly that had more publicity).
After that West of England result the Tories must be strong favourites in the West Midlands. Greater Manchester will be interesting. I can't believe Burnham might lose.
Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.
Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?
I'd love it not to have the Scouse failed Labour politician controlling many aspects of my day to day life (in many ways he will have more impact on me than anything Mrs May does or doesn't do), but I am resigned to him winning comfortably. I saw McDonnell on BBC1 a minute or two ago turning the focus to "let's wait and see what happens in the north west of England, that is where many key marginals are, that is where Mrs May has been focussing her campaigning" so I took that as meaning Labour think GM and Merseyside are both comfortably in the bag.
I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire: -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury] -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion] -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
Replying to @DentiumInfernum@philipjcowley I've already bet £500 on Labour to move the betting markets and change the narrative. Looking forward to a handsome return on my money.
I think the LDs will be more stunned by their shocker in Somerset than the WoE mayoralty. They weren't expecting that at all. Chickens coming home to roost...
Tessa Munt took Wells by looks of things though. Good for the GE?
No. That is only one division amongst many in that seat. I imagine the activists will be wandering dazed in the Mendips for days to come. Having been kicked hard in the Quantocks..
I think that the LibDem vote will be up generally from 8% come the GE but if they have any sense they will target on places like Wells, Cheltenham, St Albans and Eastleigh where they stand a chance. Some of these are giving good odds and I'm investing a few pounds.
The Tories had to weigh their votes in a number of the other Wells constituency divisions. Tessa Munt just squeaked home and the LDs picked up one of the seats in a two-member seat in Glastonbury. And that's it. It would take a minor miracle to turn that around.
On Labourlist the knives are out for the MPs already and several posters are suggesting the solution is to stand Momentum Corbynite candidates against moderate Labour MPs in the GE to get rid of them!
Can someone give me a précis of the results so far?
I went to bed at midnightish.
May has destroyed UKIP.
But will that de-toxify the Tories at some point. Discuss....
Will it detoxify their brand in the Metropolitan areas where Labour's Diversity Outreach co-ordinator vote lives - almost certainly not. They will continue to say "But why don't the people understand, the poor fools, Socialism is the answer". Ditto the "We should stay in the EU because Waitrose will run out of Organic Tapenade". But that demographic is split with the Liberal Democrats.
2ndly nor do I believe will it affect their BME 1st/2nd Generation vote. But even there seeing Kemi Badenoch stand up and represent (and she almost certainly will) the distinctly un "Street" Saffron Waldon with its 98% white vote. I believe that many BME voters will look at that and say to themselves "well both sides want my vote, both sides represent me, it's just that one side will choose Dianne Abbot to represent me, the other side Major James Cleverly MP TD". The UK at present isn't the UK of 1980's skinheads despite some problems remaining and this will affect the BME ABC1 and possibly C2 vote.
The 3rd bit of Labour's core vote - Emily Thornberry's Van vote North of Watford Gap is gone, forget about it (South of it it was always people who welled up when they thought of Mrs Thatcher PBUH). They are no longer looking at Eton & Oxbridge graduates whose wives either "Lunch" or Design Leather Clad notepads, they are looking at a cabinet with regional accents. There are a greater number of Upper Class remaining in the Conservatives, but the kind of Upper Classes who were Platoon commanders to their great grandfather at Passchendale. The British working class like Multi Generational Posh people who consider themselves their servants a la Jacob Rees Mogg, not Ghastly Nouveau Riche Chattering classes - Viz whatever Soap Opera / TV presenter / Human Rights Barrister / Red Prince (Oooh Guacamole) Labour chuck into their Electoral Seat. Nor do they want somebody who believes they are elected to act as their University Lecturer - see pretty much all the Liberal Democrats.
The 4th is also gone. UKIP will continue to act as a Lodestone to tinfoil hat wearers & E Grades. Decide for yourself where those who previously made the Tories as huggable as an Ebola patient to group 2 and 3 will go.
At the end of the day, nothing lasts forever. I believe we will get a Whig party back to counter the Tories made of mainstream Labour & Liberal Democrat MP's, with the rump Judean Peoples Popular Front keeping the assets of all those Labour Working men's clubs that will increasingly look like Pripyat save the odd Momentum friends of Palestine meeting and an invite to the South Armagh active service unit to celebrate their struggle. But by the time it has happened the dust will have settled, the UK will have signed its Free Trade agreements with Korea, Australia et all. And even if it survives the EU will look like its founders envisaged - a United States of Europe proudly waving its Star Spangled Sphincter and Bizantine Bureaucracy in the face of a World that has moved on from a Feather bedded populace.
Comments
But time for counting. Au revoir
What a heathen you are
I've seen this line being pushed a lot on my Twitter timeline. It's counterproductive. The electorate, for whatever reason, has stopped listening to Labour. That's the kindest interpretation. That they might be listening and being repelled would be worse.
However, this idea that May has now become 'Farage with breasts' butters no parsnips and will win no elections. Labour need to stop blaming the electorate while characterizing them as racists and/or sheeple.
Just back sub 10 seats. If Hallam is gone, Lib Dems are not going to hit 10 seats.
Hallam can be held and still sub 10, Southport, Norfolk North, Carshalton all more vulnerable.
It took about three weeks of badgering him to get the SU Friday night DJ to play it...
Most of the senior academic staff of the two universities live in Sheffield Hallam though.
*innocent face*
They might go for a new-labourish centreish party, but that doesn't exist (at the moment).
Mr. Pulpstar, good thinking, Batman.
Currently, I feel my various bets that mean I'm green if the Lib Dems get under 40 seats may prove green.
PS: Or was any good at technology, still a paper and ink man.
Wales has yet to kick Labour in the balls over the NHS. That's next month...
Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?
And they surely both are.
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
Replying to @DentiumInfernum @philipjcowley
I've already bet £500 on Labour to move the betting markets and change the narrative. Looking forward to a handsome return on my money.
NEW THREAD
2ndly nor do I believe will it affect their BME 1st/2nd Generation vote. But even there seeing Kemi Badenoch stand up and represent (and she almost certainly will) the distinctly un "Street" Saffron Waldon with its 98% white vote. I believe that many BME voters will look at that and say to themselves "well both sides want my vote, both sides represent me, it's just that one side will choose Dianne Abbot to represent me, the other side Major James Cleverly MP TD". The UK at present isn't the UK of 1980's skinheads despite some problems remaining and this will affect the BME ABC1 and possibly C2 vote.
The 3rd bit of Labour's core vote - Emily Thornberry's Van vote North of Watford Gap is gone, forget about it (South of it it was always people who welled up when they thought of Mrs Thatcher PBUH). They are no longer looking at Eton & Oxbridge graduates whose wives either "Lunch" or Design Leather Clad notepads, they are looking at a cabinet with regional accents. There are a greater number of Upper Class remaining in the Conservatives, but the kind of Upper Classes who were Platoon commanders to their great grandfather at Passchendale. The British working class like Multi Generational Posh people who consider themselves their servants a la Jacob Rees Mogg, not Ghastly Nouveau Riche Chattering classes - Viz whatever Soap Opera / TV presenter / Human Rights Barrister / Red Prince (Oooh Guacamole) Labour chuck into their Electoral Seat. Nor do they want somebody who believes they are elected to act as their University Lecturer - see pretty much all the Liberal Democrats.
The 4th is also gone. UKIP will continue to act as a Lodestone to tinfoil hat wearers & E Grades. Decide for yourself where those who previously made the Tories as huggable as an Ebola patient to group 2 and 3 will go.