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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the night do far
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Not sure about that.
I agree it doesn't look good for labour though.
So far on the Labour defence list in England (maj<25%), they've lost 22 and held 9.
The 9 they've held are:
Warwick West
Hitchin North
Gloucester / Coney Hill & Matson
Carlisle / Castle
Carlisle / Harraby South
Forest of Dean / Cinderford
North Warwickshire / Polesworth
Colchester / Maypole
Copeland / Egremont
Wonder if Jezza will still be on the
ChristmasMulti-Faith Winter Holiday Card?That's the Labour line at the moment right?
Otherwise it's not clear that the 2017 column represents councillors elected tonight.
https://twitter.com/TRISTANPASCOE/status/860296383156367360
Down 35 vs 2013, down 28 vs dissolution.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/04/council-local-general-election-mayoral-results-england-scotland-wales
Hopefully it's so similar to the other 2013 value that it doesn't cause an issue.
The swing in Flintshire would put all four on a knife-edge.
Copeland: Cleator Moor & Frizington (previously Lab maj 19.64%)
Carlisle: Yewdale (21.31%)
Barrow: Newbarns & Parkside (21.88%)
Barrow: Dalton South (22.93%)
http://www.tamworth.gov.uk/sites/default/files/councillors_docs/SCC-ELECTIONS-RESULTS.pdf
https://twitter.com/richardpayneitv/status/860315407906988034
This is Bristol only.
It's my biggest position at the moment, but I'm green on a Con majority of anything over 100, pretty damn green on anything over 150 and very green if the Lib Dems fail to secure 10 seats.
Tonight has made me glad I put a few extra quid on this afternoon but much of tonight's result felt priced in by the evening.
"It certainly makes it impossible to extrapolate anything about what will happen in the Westminster election in those areas from the local results. On the other hand, Labour take encouragement from the result in Flintshire, where the Tories are expected to challenge hard for the county's two constituencies next month.
Nevertheless, last week's YouGov poll for ITV Wales showed Labour narrowly in the lead when people were asked how they would vote in the local elections -and 12 points behind the Conservatives when it came to the General Election. "
(2/2) Labour up from 43 to 46%, but Tories up from 26 to 38% across Hastings #le2017
(via BBC Sussex)
Cumbria
Dorset
Essex
Gloucestershire
Hampshire
Isle of Wight
Lincolnshire
Somerset
Warwickshire
I haven't even checked the other council website!
If UKIP can't win there, where can they win?
A bad media for UKIP over these results can only help Con further at the GE.
Con 58 (+25)
Lab 6 (-5)
Ind 5 (-4)
LD 1 (-2)
UKIP 0 (-14)
Sky say this doesn't bode well for Nuttall in Boston & Skeggie!
PB Google doc seat tally = 587
LD gain 9 from Con
That doesn't look good for LD - especially as people are more inclined to vote LD at Locals.
OK, it's a Locals like for like comparison but even so it doesn't hint at any GE recovery.
And one might think Corbyn should be driving votes from Lab to LD.
Political scientist Professor John Curtice says declarations so far from the English county councils are very much in line with the expectations generated by recent opinion polls.
In summary:
• There is a very substantial swing from Labour to the Conservatives, which is currently averaging some seven points. If this continues this will point towards a strong double-digit Conservative lead over Labour across the country as a whole
• The UKIP vote is collapsing heavily and so far is down on average by 16 points in wards they fought this time and last time
• The Lib Dem performance is very patchy but at the moment the party is averaging an increase of three points. However, this is sometimes proving inadequate to enable the party to defend seats successfully against the rising Conservative tide. So hopes that this election might secure a significant restoration of the Lib Dems' former local government base look as though they will not be realised
• These voting patterns are clearly reflected in the pattern of gains and losses so far with Labour losing about two in five of the seats it's trying to defend - while the Conservatives have already made 89 net gains and gained control of Warwickshire, Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire
• The Lib Dems have lost a net 10 seats in England - while UKIP has lost every one of the 34 seats the party is trying to defend.
Though I guess Curtice is calculating the swing from 2013 when Lab was doing much better.
Con 36 (-24)
Lab 12 (+8)
UKIP 16 (+16)
LD 3 (-2)
In 8 (+4)
So essentially tonight has just put Lincolnshire back to where it was prior to 2013.
https://www.iwight.com/electionresult2017/
The Mayoral results will prove interesting and may give Labour false hope - and the Conservatives would be wise not to read too much into a John Lewis Conservative win in the West Midlands
Let it be remembered that what finished Labour off in Blaenau Gwent was the bins. #BBCRadio4 #LE2017
Though not sure why that should be expected to be the case?
UKIP's Lisa Duffy on party losing all #LocalElections2017 seats so far: "I won't use the word disaster, I use the word challenging"#LE2017
Conservative 35 (+6)
Liberal Democrat 12 (-6)
Labour 3 (-)
Independent 3 (+1)
Green Party 2 (+2)
UKIP 0 (-3)
Mr Verhofstadt was goading her at the decisive moment of her political career. So were the friends of Mr Juncker. It is not clear why. Are they so ignorant of the British electorate that they think they can make Mrs May reverse her policy, or even lose on 8 June? Are they just ill-disciplined in their anger? Or am I missing something? I find it hard to tell whether they understand their own best interests. The history of the EU suggests that its leaders are good at defending bureaucratic power, but get a bit flummoxed by democracy.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/the-eu-leaders-tactics-are-intended-to-affect-our-general-election/
So total first preference so far:
https://twitter.com/richardpayneitv/status/860324277719097344
Conservative: 37 (+11)
Labour: 26 (-9)
Lib Dems: 16 (N/C)
Independent: 5 (-2)
Conservative 29 (-6)
Liberal Democrat 18 ()
Labour 3 (+1)
Independent 2 (+2)
Green Party 0 (+/-)
UKIP 3 (+3)
Like Lincolnshire, it appears to have reverted back to pre 2013 levels, although bad for LDs
Con 53.4%
Lab 18.8%
UKIP 7.4%
Lincs Ind 6.3%
Ind 6.0%
LD 5.3%
Oth 2.4%
https://www.lincolnshire.gov.uk/ElectionsResultsHome2017.aspx?navCode=108332
https://twitter.com/richardpayneitv/status/860325009285406720
Conservative: 26 (-12)
Labour: 35 (+11)
Lib Dems: 16 (N/C)
Independent: 7 (+1)
Overall results look similar to 2009 rather than breaking new ground....
Con 28
Lab 22
LD 20
Ind 14
Green 11
UKIP 4
Con 53,796 (27.3%)
Lab 43,627 (22.2%)
Lib 39,794 (20.2%)
Ind 29,500 (15.0%)
Grn 22,054 (11.2%)
UKIP 8,182 (4.2%)
http://www.cumbria.gov.uk/election2017/results/district/division.asp?division=MaryportNorth&district=Allerdale&title=MaryportNorth
So for LDs tonight to be down on 2013 (so far) is a very disappointing result.
"The summary? This is the worst performance for an opposition ever. Indicates a blowout win for the Tories on 8 June. Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are where they need to be to win."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/new-statesman-2017-local-elections-liveblog
As it is, it looks very close - if UKIP transfer to Con and Green transfer to Lab, then it's approx tied, and will depend entirely on LD and Ind transfers.