Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.
Corbyn? Do the decent thing? I suppose there's a first time for everything.
RLB. Agree completely. Though Labour does have sensible options too. Whether it chooses to take one of them is another matter.
No, Davis is very far from that. I could name 10 off the top of my head who'd beat him on that score. I could probably name 100 given a bit of time.
Presumably lots of number crunching going on between now and June 8th:
1. Which of Labour's "sensible options" are likely to survive the cull? 2. Will the pro-Corbyn faction have a large enough share of what's left of the PLP to nominate a candidate for the succession? (Corbyn will only resign if they do.)
Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.
Corbyn? Do the decent thing? I suppose there's a first time for everything.
RLB. Agree completely. Though Labour does have sensible options too. Whether it chooses to take one of them is another matter.
No, Davis is very far from that. I could name 10 off the top of my head who'd beat him on that score. I could probably name 100 given a bit of time.
Presumably lots of number crunching going on between now and June 8th:
1. Which of Labour's "sensible options" are likely to survive the cull? 2. Will the pro-Corbyn faction have a large enough share of what's left of the PLP to nominate a candidate for the succession? (Corbyn will only resign if they do.)
Of the sensible options, both Jon Ashworth (who seems to be having an unusually gaffe free campaign for a front bencher) and Stella Creasy are pretty safe.
Newport and Neath Port Talbot for Labour. Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil for independents. Monmouthshire for the Consevatives. Bridgend, Ceredigion, Wrexham and Flintshire all NOC. Here are the councillors totals so far across Wales, with counting ongoing:
Labour 257 seats (-67) Independent 151 (+40) Conservative 83 (+25) Plaid Cymru 41 (+11) Liberal Democrat 29 (-7) Ukip 0 (-2)
Dont read too much into these results yet because of the Councils counted so far:
Conservatives have had 3 of their strongest 4 Councils counted - and almost all of their main targets. Not many pickings left for them in councils couting tommorrow. I expect them to finish on around 148 seats (+44).
Similarly, most of LDs targets wre tonight and not much to look forward to tommorrow - I expect them to finish on aroun 60 seats (-10)
By contrast, Plaid's strongest councils and most of their targets are counting tommorrow. I expect them finish up on aroun 240 seats (+66)
Independents also have their strong areas counting tommorrow and expect them to finish up on around 380 seats (+20)
Labour should continue their bad form tommorrow - I expect them to finish around 420 seats (-120)
But as to what this means for GE - very difficult to tell.
Butler swing in England: 7.4% (to Conservatives), Butler swing in Wales: 4.6%. Can Labour take positives from that?
(Posted about an hour ago.)
We should remind ourselves once again that these are local election results and things may not develop in the same way next month; HOWEVER... not looking brilliant for Labour, is it?
Not really, the Tories only need a relatively small swing to pick up a number of seats from Labour in Wales. Wrexham, Clwyd South, Bridgend, etc.
Newport and Neath Port Talbot for Labour. Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil for independents. Monmouthshire for the Consevatives. Bridgend, Ceredigion, Wrexham and Flintshire all NOC. Here are the councillors totals so far across Wales, with counting ongoing:
Labour 257 seats (-67) Independent 151 (+40) Conservative 83 (+25) Plaid Cymru 41 (+11) Liberal Democrat 29 (-7) Ukip 0 (-2)
Dont read too much into these results yet because of the Councils counted so far:
Conservatives have had 3 of their strongest 4 Councils counted - and almost all of their main targets. Not many pickings left for them in councils couting tommorrow. I expect them to finish on around 148 seats (+44).
Similarly, most of LDs targets wre tonight and not much to look forward to tommorrow - I expect them to finish on aroun 60 seats (-10)
By contrast, Plaid's strongest councils and most of their targets are counting tommorrow. I expect them finish up on aroun 240 seats (+66)
Independents also have their strong areas counting tommorrow and expect them to finish up on around 380 seats (+20)
Labour should continue their bad form tommorrow - I expect them to finish around 420 seats (-120)
But as to what this means for GE - very difficult to tell.
Wales doesn't actually seem too bad for Labour, given that 2012 was a good year for them. But, the big vote for Independents makes it hard to make GE predictions.
Northumberland have woken up and are now declaring seats again.
Tories picked up a seat from IND, and a seat from the LDs. They are already up five, but would need to gain another nine to take the council (46 seats left).
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
Ukip have had a very bad night. Four years ago, when in these equivalent elections in England, they did remarkably well. Tonight we’ve seen pretty much confirmation of the message of the opinion polls, that the Ukip vote now seems to be being badly squeezed, not least by the Conservatives, apparently because Ukip voters now think that Theresa May is going to bring about the vision of Brexit that they are after. That is the one clear, unambiguous thing.
It’s also perfectly clear this has been a pretty bad set of results for Labour. After all, back in 2013, Labour didn’t do that well. We said they were getting the equivalent of no more than 30% of the vote. Well, actually, on average, Labour’s share of the vote is down in these overnight results. That is not the kind of performance that you would expect from a party on the brink of a general election victory.
For the Conservatives, undoubtedly this looks like at first glance a very good set of results. It’s probably consistent with them having a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
Argh. The number of times I have wanted to delete a draft. Sometimes you just have to post something else to clear the memory.
Ukip have had a very bad night. Four years ago, when in these equivalent elections in England, they did remarkably well. Tonight we’ve seen pretty much confirmation of the message of the opinion polls, that the Ukip vote now seems to be being badly squeezed, not least by the Conservatives, apparently because Ukip voters now think that Theresa May is going to bring about the vision of Brexit that they are after. That is the one clear, unambiguous thing.
It’s also perfectly clear this has been a pretty bad set of results for Labour. After all, back in 2013, Labour didn’t do that well. We said they were getting the equivalent of no more than 30% of the vote. Well, actually, on average, Labour’s share of the vote is down in these overnight results.That is not the kind of performance that you would expect from a party on the brink of a general election victory.
For the Conservatives, undoubtedly this looks like at first glance a very good set of results. It’s probably consistent with them having a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.
She's about the same age as I am but seems a lot younger, completely out of her depth.
I wondered whether she could have done a Nuttal and invented her CV? Of the qualities needed for a practicing solicitor is the ability to apply logic to complex problems.
She made Diane Abbott seem like Robert Oppenheimer.
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.
Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.
Okay thanks, I won't bother adding up the numbers myself.
Good Morning. Missed it all so far. My assessment is that we took a drubbing - bot not as much as I thought was possible. 37% - 28%, is it as bad as recent polls ?
The Con results in Cumbria were greatly enhanced by events in Copeland following on from the by-election - 5 gains. I had doubts as to whether this could be held at the GE - looks as if Trudy Harrison will hold her sensational by-election gain from these results.
Eastleigh County Councillors Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory Now 7 LibDem I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Surely a pointer that Corbyn has to do the decent thing and shoot himself.
I listened to Question Time last night and heard Rebecca Long Bailey. if this is the furure of the Labour Party it's all over. I was embarrassed for her.
She achieved the extraordinary feat of making me wonder whether fellow panel member David Davis might have been the best Prime Minister we never had.
Corbyn? Do the decent thing? I suppose there's a first time for everything.
RLB. Agree completely. Though Labour does have sensible options too. Whether it chooses to take one of them is another matter.
No, Davis is very far from that. I could name 10 off the top of my head who'd beat him on that score. I could probably name 100 given a bit of time.
Presumably lots of number crunching going on between now and June 8th:
1. Which of Labour's "sensible options" are likely to survive the cull? 2. Will the pro-Corbyn faction have a large enough share of what's left of the PLP to nominate a candidate for the succession? (Corbyn will only resign if they do.)
Of the sensible options, both Jon Ashworth (who seems to be having an unusually gaffe free campaign for a front bencher) and Stella Creasy are pretty safe.
Jon Ashworth would be an outstanding leader of the Labour Party and might in ten years lead them back to power.
This post was not influenced in any way whatsoever by the fact I tipped him as next leader at 80/1 a few weeks back.
I thought Labour would be expunged from the face of the earth, and wiped out.
Everywhere.
Too much to hope for. You forget that Labour is extremely well dug-in in some places, that local factors will be paramount in others, and that quite a lot of voters are still inclined to support Labour (genuine Far Leftists, the very young, the very poor, parts of the BAME vote, anti-Tory tactical backers, and much of the still-heavily unionised workforce in the public sector and public transport amongst them - as well as all of the surviving brand loyalty/cultural/robot/habit voters, which should still amount to a considerable number.)
I hope that Labour suffers a heavy defeat next month, but I've no illusions about them simply rolling over and dying. Even in Scotland they've still been polling as much as 18%, according to the available Scotland-only surveys.
I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.
Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.
Okay thanks, I won't bother adding up the numbers myself.
Good Morning. Missed it all so far. My assessment is that we took a drubbing - bot not as much as I thought was possible. 37% - 28%, is it as bad as recent polls ?
Good morning. I think it's too early to say, with the vast majority of results still to come. Labour did a bit better than expected in Cardiff and Swansea, and in the Doncaster mayoral election.
I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.
Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.
Okay thanks, I won't bother adding up the numbers myself.
Good Morning. Missed it all so far. My assessment is that we took a drubbing - bot not as much as I thought was possible. 37% - 28%, is it as bad as recent polls ?
Good morning. I think it's too early to say, with the vast majority of results still to come. Labour did a bit better than expected in Cardiff and Swansea, and in the Doncaster mayoral election.
When 'Labour hold Swansea and Doncaster' is the best news we can manage for them, things are absolutely desperate.
Another break with tradition - no dissolution honours list
Theresa May has signalled an end to cronyism in the honours system by becoming the first prime minister not to publish a dissolution honours list in more than 60 years.
I thought I heard Sky say Con were 8% ahead of Lab in area comprising West of England Mayoralty at GE 2015.
That seems surprising - but if correct surely Con should have been expected to win far more easily.
Can anyone confirm?
Which areas does it comprise? Bristol, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire I think. I'll check on the combined GE figures for those areas.
Appears correct, I make it something like 36.8% Cons to 28.1% for Lab.
Okay thanks, I won't bother adding up the numbers myself.
Good Morning. Missed it all so far. My assessment is that we took a drubbing - bot not as much as I thought was possible. 37% - 28%, is it as bad as recent polls ?
Good morning. I think it's too early to say, with the vast majority of results still to come. Labour did a bit better than expected in Cardiff and Swansea, and in the Doncaster mayoral election.
When 'Labour hold Swansea and Doncaster' is the best news we can manage for them, things are absolutely desperate.
Eastleigh County Councillors Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory Now 7 LibDem I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Health warning: just to the south-west of us here in Royston lies Stevenage. The composition of the Borough Council there is as follows:
Lab 29, Con 7, LD 3
The sitting MP is a Conservative with a majority of nearly 5,000, and Stevenage is currently number 60 on the Conservative defence list for this GE. Labour haven't a snowball's chance in Hell of taking it.
People do not necessarily vote the same way on local and general elections.
Eastleigh County Councillors Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory Now 7 LibDem I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Health warning: just to the south-west of us here in Royston lies Stevenage. The composition of the Borough Council there is as follows:
Lab 29, Con 7, LD 3
The sitting MP is a Conservative with a majority of nearly 5,000, and Stevenage is currently number 60 on the Conservative defence list for this GE. Labour haven't a snowball's chance in Hell of taking it.
People do not necessarily vote the same way on local and general elections.
True, but the direction of travel is a useful pointer.
Political scientist Professor John Curtice says declarations so far from the English county councils are very much in line with the expectations generated by recent opinion polls.
So opinion polls are more useful than PCBEs? Who knew?
I thought Labour would be expunged from the face of the earth, and wiped out.
Everywhere.
Too much to hope for. You forget that Labour is extremely well dug-in in some places, that local factors will be paramount in others, and that quite a lot of voters are still inclined to support Labour (genuine Far Leftists, the very young, the very poor, parts of the BAME vote, anti-Tory tactical backers, and much of the still-heavily unionised workforce in the public sector and public transport amongst them - as well as all of the surviving brand loyalty/cultural/robot/habit voters, which should still amount to a considerable number.)
I hope that Labour suffers a heavy defeat next month, but I've no illusions about them simply rolling over and dying. Even in Scotland they've still been polling as much as 18%, according to the available Scotland-only surveys.
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
If you are on the vanilla site, not the main site, which you can reach by clicking your name, then 'discussions' at the top, drafts is a menu option on the left. You can revise or delete your drafts from there
God sake third parties, I want you to do well, and thus is what you give me.
I guess...I guess it's still true people vote differently in locals and it could look different in the GE *strains to see positives for anyone but CON*, so I guess maybe LD and Lab will do better.
Seriously though, on the early stuff the LDs look almost as dead as ukip in terms of progress if not in terms of wipeout. But then they already lost thousands of seats before.
On BBC R4, Kipper vote share described as going from 22% share to 3%.
Wow!
Many of the Tory gains appear to have been due to the collapse in the UKIP vote. It seems to me that there has been little direct swing away from Lab, and most of the net Lab to Con swing has been due to virtual elimination of the UKIP vote share.
Extrapolating to the GE, Labour could well retain about 30% of the vote (as current opinion polls are predicting), but still lose about one third of their MPs (net loss of about 80 seats).
Eastleigh County Councillors Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory Now 7 LibDem I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Health warning: just to the south-west of us here in Royston lies Stevenage. The composition of the Borough Council there is as follows:
Lab 29, Con 7, LD 3
The sitting MP is a Conservative with a majority of nearly 5,000, and Stevenage is currently number 60 on the Conservative defence list for this GE. Labour haven't a snowball's chance in Hell of taking it.
People do not necessarily vote the same way on local and general elections.
The constituency boundaries include rural areas that are very Conservative. But, Labour do outperform their GE score in local elections there.
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
Ukip have had a very bad night. Four years ago, when in these equivalent elections in England, they did remarkably well. Tonight we’ve seen pretty much confirmation of the message of the opinion polls, that the Ukip vote now seems to be being badly squeezed, not least by the Conservatives, apparently because Ukip voters now think that Theresa May is going to bring about the vision of Brexit that they are after. That is the one clear, unambiguous thing.
It’s also perfectly clear this has been a pretty bad set of results for Labour. After all, back in 2013, Labour didn’t do that well. We said they were getting the equivalent of no more than 30% of the vote. Well, actually, on average, Labour’s share of the vote is down in these overnight results.That is not the kind of performance that you would expect from a party on the brink of a general election victory.
For the Conservatives, undoubtedly this looks like at first glance a very good set of results. It’s probably consistent with them having a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
Love the understatement
What else would you expect from Prof. Curtice when he's referring to the Tories?
Technical question: if I start to reply to a comment then realise that someone else has already done so more effectively than I was going to, how do I delete the draft in Vanilla without the auto save just putting it back as soon as I refresh?
Not possible, in order to be on this site you have to know that no one can possibly post any thing more effectively or eloquently than you (except Jack W)
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
On BBC R4, Kipper vote share described as going from 22% share to 3%.
Wow!
Many of the Tory gains appear to have been due to the collapse in the UKIP vote. It seems to me that there has been little direct swing away from Lab, and most of the net Lab to Con swing has been due to virtual elimination of the UKIP vote share.
Extrapolating to the GE, Labour could well retain about 30% of the vote (as current opinion polls are predicting), but still lose about one third of their MPs (net loss of about 80 seats).
Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, Harry Hayfield, Mark Senior, Mike Smithson, Dunny-On-The-Wold can you hear me, Dunny-On-The-Wold your boys took a hell of a beating, your boys took a hell of a beating.
So I see from Britain elects that the LD talk from Swansea was nonsense?
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, Harry Hayfield, Mark Senior, Mike Smithson, Dunny-On-The-Wold can you hear me, Dunny-On-The-Wold your boys took a hell of a beating, your boys took a hell of a beating.
Another ignominious fail for using out-of-date local by-elections as a predictive tool.
Aw.. I wasn't going to bring up Dunny-on-the-Wold until at least this evening.... titters.
Eastleigh County Councillors Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory Now 7 LibDem I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up! 2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
Health warning: just to the south-west of us here in Royston lies Stevenage. The composition of the Borough Council there is as follows:
Lab 29, Con 7, LD 3
The sitting MP is a Conservative with a majority of nearly 5,000, and Stevenage is currently number 60 on the Conservative defence list for this GE. Labour haven't a snowball's chance in Hell of taking it.
People do not necessarily vote the same way on local and general elections.
The constituency boundaries include rural areas that are very Conservative. But, Labour do outperform their GE score in local elections there.
GEs have alot more people heading out to vote.
Alot of those extra voters head out to vote for "the government"...
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
If they cannot rise above the tied even with lab doing badly, there's not much point to them. Think I might vote Con, people are right, it's a two party system why bother with anyone else but Con and lab. Except in Scotland.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
The Midlands doesn't declare until this evening!
I'm curious as well - Bristol was Remain and Middlesbrough was leave. So if the Conservatives take Bristol surely they have a decent chance in Teesside?
On BBC R4, Kipper vote share described as going from 22% share to 3%.
Wow!
Many of the Tory gains appear to have been due to the collapse in the UKIP vote. It seems to me that there has been little direct swing away from Lab, and most of the net Lab to Con swing has been due to virtual elimination of the UKIP vote share.
Extrapolating to the GE, Labour could well retain about 30% of the vote (as current opinion polls are predicting), but still lose about one third of their MPs (net loss of about 80 seats).
Sounds about right to me too.
As well as regaining ex-Tories, they've won over supporters from other parties who switched to UKIP.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories wondering how they keep up momentum for next five weeks #ge17 #LE2017
Corbyn not resigning will help tremendously
Yes. Terrible as they are these results are they aren't awful enough for Corbyn to go, nor the even bigger fantasy that somehow a move against him off the back of them might be made.
On BBC R4, Kipper vote share described as going from 22% share to 3%.
Wow!
Many of the Tory gains appear to have been due to the collapse in the UKIP vote. It seems to me that there has been little direct swing away from Lab, and most of the net Lab to Con swing has been due to virtual elimination of the UKIP vote share.
Extrapolating to the GE, Labour could well retain about 30% of the vote (as current opinion polls are predicting), but still lose about one third of their MPs (net loss of about 80 seats).
Sounds about right to me too.
As well as regaining ex-Tories, they've won over supporters from other parties who switched to UKIP.
Agreed - some on the Prog All seem to be hinting that all is well because only UKIP have tanked. I think that rather misses the point. nor is it rue so far in England.
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
Yep. 15-20 parliamentary seats looks laughable unless people vote very differently at the ge. 10-15 still possible at the lower ends, but tough, and the LDs were expecting momentum to take forward, and especially as 'labour doing terribly, but look at the lds' was a narrative they needed in order to get some attention. Not dead, but close to it still.
Ukip have had a very bad night. Four years ago, when in these equivalent elections in England, they did remarkably well. Tonight we’ve seen pretty much confirmation of the message of the opinion polls, that the Ukip vote now seems to be being badly squeezed, not least by the Conservatives, apparently because Ukip voters now think that Theresa May is going to bring about the vision of Brexit that they are after. That is the one clear, unambiguous thing.
It’s also perfectly clear this has been a pretty bad set of results for Labour. After all, back in 2013, Labour didn’t do that well. We said they were getting the equivalent of no more than 30% of the vote. Well, actually, on average, Labour’s share of the vote is down in these overnight results. That is not the kind of performance that you would expect from a party on the brink of a general election victory.
For the Conservatives, undoubtedly this looks like at first glance a very good set of results. It’s probably consistent with them having a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
Morning all. I see Rob is up and perky nice and early.
For Labour the above appears to contain the key question - we have Labour nudging 30% in most of the polls, yet now we have a set of council elections with big Labour losses on a baseline roughly equivalent to 30% NEV, with the further consideration that Labour normally does a little better in local than national elections. So the polls suggest high 20s% but the elections point to low 20s%? For the Tories, and the betting, there is a big difference.
@PolhomeEditor: Spoke to first senior Labour figure yesterday who said party could go below 150 MPs on June 8th. I though that was far-fetched, Not any more
@tamcohen: John McDonnell tells @SkyNews results look "fairly positive" in Wales
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
So I see from Britain elects that the LD talk from Swansea was nonsense?
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
So I see from Britain elects that the LD talk from Swansea was nonsense?
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
I'm surprised they're not doing better. On the face of it, the anti-Brexit banner should be a good one for them. I wonder if it is becoming apparent that, although there are a good number who don't like the Brexit result, there is now an underlying sense from the main bulk of remain voters that it be respected. It's weird though - most remain voters I meet don't seem to fit that profile and the LDs seem to fit the bill for that profile of voter. Odd.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
The Midlands doesn't declare until this evening!
I'm curious as well - Bristol was Remain and Middlesbrough was leave. So if the Conservatives take Bristol surely they have a decent chance in Teesside?
But that was only narrow and Teesside is very strongly Labour.
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
Green gains in the Summer Country the most interesting sub plot for me. Admitted Frome is, well, different but could they be becoming the acceptable anti-Tory vote instead of the Lib Dems
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
The Midlands doesn't declare until this evening!
I'm curious as well - Bristol was Remain and Middlesbrough was leave. So if the Conservatives take Bristol surely they have a decent chance in Teesside?
But that was only narrow and Teesside is very strongly Labour.
Mayoral results depend a lot more on the individual candidate than ordinary elections do.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
The Midlands doesn't declare until this evening!
I'm curious as well - Bristol was Remain and Middlesbrough was leave. So if the Conservatives take Bristol surely they have a decent chance in Teesside?
But that was only narrow and Teesside is very strongly Labour.
To counter that, though, we're seeing bigger swings in the traditional WWC Labour areas - see, for instance, the North West.
I still agree it is likely to be a Labour win though.
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
Yep. 15-20 parliamentary seats looks laughable unless people vote very differently at the ge. 10-15 still possible at the lower ends, but tough, and the LDs were expecting momentum to take forward, and especially as 'labour doing terribly, but look at the lds' was a narrative they needed in order to get some attention. Not dead, but close to it still.
They need good results where they are challenging - in Eastleigh and Cheltenham for example.
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
Green gains in the Summer Country the most interesting sub plot for me. Admitted Frome is, well, different but could they be becoming the acceptable anti-Tory vote instead of the Lib Dems
Straws in the wind, mind, just straws
What a farce that would be - the greens are far worse than the LDs, so much more extreme (as a party, I sure mist if it's local candidates are pretty normal).
@tamcohen: On Labour being set to lose seats in 3 local elections running (unprecedented), McDonnell blames "how the media have covered it"
Did you listen to LBC yesterday? One of the commentators, and a lot of the people that phoned in, kept talking about the biased media. Cringe worthy sometimes.
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
Green gains in the Summer Country the most interesting sub plot for me. Admitted Frome is, well, different but could they be becoming the acceptable anti-Tory vote instead of the Lib Dems
Straws in the wind, mind, just straws
Greens are the second best performing party tonight in England. A fair bit behind the Tories though...
Comments
1. Which of Labour's "sensible options" are likely to survive the cull?
2. Will the pro-Corbyn faction have a large enough share of what's left of the PLP to nominate a candidate for the succession? (Corbyn will only resign if they do.)
I thought Labour would be expunged from the face of the earth, and wiped out.
Everywhere.
Conservatives have had 3 of their strongest 4 Councils counted - and almost all of their main targets. Not many pickings left for them in councils couting tommorrow. I expect them to finish on around 148 seats (+44).
Similarly, most of LDs targets wre tonight and not much to look forward to tommorrow - I expect them to finish on aroun 60 seats (-10)
By contrast, Plaid's strongest councils and most of their targets are counting tommorrow. I expect them finish up on aroun 240 seats (+66)
Independents also have their strong areas counting tommorrow and expect them to finish up on around 380 seats (+20)
Labour should continue their bad form tommorrow - I expect them to finish around 420 seats (-120)
But as to what this means for GE - very difficult to tell.
https://twitter.com/robinmarkwell/status/860312783493234689
haven't yet found official figures to x check this.
Found totals.
https://www.westofengland-ca.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Stage-1-breakdown.pdf
Stage 1
https://www.westofengland-ca.org.uk/mayoral-election/west-england-combined-authority-mayoral-election-stage-1-count-results/
Stage 2
https://www.westofengland-ca.org.uk/mayoral-election/west-england-combined-authority-mayoral-election-result/west-england-combined-authority-mayoral-election-stage-2-count-results/
http://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Councillors/Vote.aspx
My kipper father has an LD councillor in Romsey by the look of it too.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/860367292676186112
Ukip have had a very bad night. Four years ago, when in these equivalent elections in England, they did remarkably well. Tonight we’ve seen pretty much confirmation of the message of the opinion polls, that the Ukip vote now seems to be being badly squeezed, not least by the Conservatives, apparently because Ukip voters now think that Theresa May is going to bring about the vision of Brexit that they are after. That is the one clear, unambiguous thing.
It’s also perfectly clear this has been a pretty bad set of results for Labour. After all, back in 2013, Labour didn’t do that well. We said they were getting the equivalent of no more than 30% of the vote. Well, actually, on average, Labour’s share of the vote is down in these overnight results. That is not the kind of performance that you would expect from a party on the brink of a general election victory.
For the Conservatives, undoubtedly this looks like at first glance a very good set of results. It’s probably consistent with them having a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/04/council-local-general-election-mayoral-results-england-scotland-wales
She made Diane Abbott seem like Robert Oppenheimer.
https://www.westofengland-ca.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Stage-1-breakdown.pdf
Before Thursday - 3 UKIP, 3 LibDem, 1 Tory
Now 7 LibDem
I've a few quid on the LibDems retaking Eastleigh at the GE.
Keith House @CllrKeithHouse
Lib Dems win all seven County seats in Eastleigh constituency #Mike4Eastleigh #Lib Dems on the up!
2:18 AM - 5 May 2017 · Eastleigh, England
This post was not influenced in any way whatsoever by the fact I tipped him as next leader at 80/1 a few weeks back.
I hope that Labour suffers a heavy defeat next month, but I've no illusions about them simply rolling over and dying. Even in Scotland they've still been polling as much as 18%, according to the available Scotland-only surveys.
The English genuine leftists are on the run. The Scottish pretend leftists, not so much.
Theresa May has signalled an end to cronyism in the honours system by becoming the first prime minister not to publish a dissolution honours list in more than 60 years.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/theresa-may-breaks-away-cameron-cronyism-mps-standing-told-will/
Lab 29, Con 7, LD 3
The sitting MP is a Conservative with a majority of nearly 5,000, and Stevenage is currently number 60 on the Conservative defence list for this GE. Labour haven't a snowball's chance in Hell of taking it.
People do not necessarily vote the same way on local and general elections.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
Wow!
I guess...I guess it's still true people vote differently in locals and it could look different in the GE *strains to see positives for anyone but CON*, so I guess maybe LD and Lab will do better.
Seriously though, on the early stuff the LDs look almost as dead as ukip in terms of progress if not in terms of wipeout. But then they already lost thousands of seats before.
70% UKIP--> Tory
15% UKIP --> Labour switch in my GE election spreadsheet. Now seems reasonable
UKIP didn't win the Hartlepool council by-election (came close though).
Extrapolating to the GE, Labour could well retain about 30% of the vote (as current opinion polls are predicting), but still lose about one third of their MPs (net loss of about 80 seats).
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqZTP8-8wIs
Another ignominious fail for using out-of-date local by-elections as a predictive tool.
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
Alot of those extra voters head out to vote for "the government"...
Corbyn not resigning will help tremendously
I'm curious as well - Bristol was Remain and Middlesbrough was leave. So if the Conservatives take Bristol surely they have a decent chance in Teesside?
The Green part of the Progressive Alliance is up, however...
For Labour the above appears to contain the key question - we have Labour nudging 30% in most of the polls, yet now we have a set of council elections with big Labour losses on a baseline roughly equivalent to 30% NEV, with the further consideration that Labour normally does a little better in local than national elections. So the polls suggest high 20s% but the elections point to low 20s%? For the Tories, and the betting, there is a big difference.
@tamcohen: John McDonnell tells @SkyNews results look "fairly positive" in Wales
Straws in the wind, mind, just straws
I still agree it is likely to be a Labour win though.
LOL