After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
I'd say the LD story is very striking, but not just that it's bad. We are increasing our vote share fairly well, but losing seats. The risk of the same thing happening in June should alarm us.
@tamcohen: On Labour being set to lose seats in 3 local elections running (unprecedented), McDonnell blames "how the media have covered it"
Did you listen to LBC yesterday? One of the commentators, and a lot of the people that phoned in, kept talking about the biased media. Cringe worthy sometimes.
FWIW, I think the media have been rather kind to Labour so far this campaign, considering JCIC.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories wondering how they keep up momentum for next five weeks #ge17 #LE2017
Corbyn not resigning will help tremendously
Yes. Terrible as they are these results are they aren't awful enough for Corbyn to go, nor the even bigger fantasy that somehow a move against him off the back of them might be made.
We may well be saying exactly the same the morning after the GE resulta as well.
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
Yep. 15-20 parliamentary seats looks laughable unless people vote very differently at the ge. 10-15 still possible at the lower ends, but tough, and the LDs were expecting momentum to take forward, and especially as 'labour doing terribly, but look at the lds' was a narrative they needed in order to get some attention. Not dead, but close to it still.
They need good results where they are challenging - in Eastleigh and Cheltenham for example.
We'll see. I'll be at Wiltshire all day, and they hold on ok in their areas, which on current trends looks unlikely, maybe I'll perk up. I'm definitely not of them, but I don't want to be in a situation where I only get 2 options plus joke parties, I want them and ukip to do well, byt the long road back is not looking any shorter.
@tamcohen: On Labour being set to lose seats in 3 local elections running (unprecedented), McDonnell blames "how the media have covered it"
Did you listen to LBC yesterday? One of the commentators, and a lot of the people that phoned in, kept talking about the biased media. Cringe worthy sometimes.
These idiots really think the public are just brainwashed sheep.
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
Green gains in the Summer Country the most interesting sub plot for me. Admitted Frome is, well, different but could they be becoming the acceptable anti-Tory vote instead of the Lib Dems
Straws in the wind, mind, just straws
What a farce that would be - the greens are far worse than the LDs, so much more extreme (as a party, I sure mist if it's local candidates are pretty normal).
I don't know the guy who won but he sounded nice and self-depreciating on the World Service (basically came across as a conservationalist minded independent than a fanatical watermelon
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
If the West of England subset (Bristol West) is correct then the Lib Dems have a big problem in that the Labour vote is holding up well in middle class Lib-Lab potential targets then that combined with the kipper collapse/Tory surge means that for the GE quite honestly we may well be a long way up shit creek
Full disclosure: I'm on sub 18.5 LDs generally with selective backing in certain targets.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
The Bristol area contains four universities, off the top of my head two world heritage sites, several major theatres and arts centres, lots of characterful restaurants and people who rely on cheap foreign workers and love going abroad three times a year, plus plenty of champagne socialists in the flats by the docks. I think I am right in saying that a mere seven years ago it didn't have a single Tory MP. It also contains some of the most deprived areas in the country with a high ethnic, especially Muslim, population.
If ever a place should have been favourable to the niche middle class guilt trip that Labour has become under Corbyn, it's Bristol. It wasn't.
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
Yep. 15-20 parliamentary seats looks laughable unless people vote very differently at the ge. 10-15 still possible at the lower ends, but tough, and the LDs were expecting momentum to take forward, and especially as 'labour doing terribly, but look at the lds' was a narrative they needed in order to get some attention. Not dead, but close to it still.
They need good results where they are challenging - in Eastleigh and Cheltenham for example.
They also need to seem relevant to get some momentum ahead of the ge, if they look like they have no shot somecwho might consider it won't vote. Not making gains mean no narrative of progress to build on, even if in highly concentrated areas they did ok.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
The Bristol area contains four universities, off the top of my head two world heritage sites, several major theatres and arts centres, lots of characterful restaurants and people who rely on cheap foreign workers and love going abroad three times a year, plus plenty of champagne socialists in the flats by the docks. I think I am right in saying that a mere seven years ago it didn't have a single Tory MP. It also contains some of the most deprived areas in the country with a high ethnic, especially Muslim, population.
If ever a place should have been favourable to the niche middle class guilt trip that Labour has become under Corbyn, it's Bristol. It wasn't.
Bristol was, wasn't it, just not enough to overcome the Tories from other areas?
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
I'd say the LD story is very striking, but not just that it's bad. We are increasing our vote share fairly well, but losing seats. The risk of the same thing happening in June should alarm us.
After all the ramping of them, surely the story of the night is how badly the Lib Dems are doing.
They may still do well in Oxfordshire and Cornwall
Perhaps.
Essentially it appears as if the LibDem vote share is up but the Con share is up substantially more. A closer analysis will be required at close of play in their target GE seats. However their GE seat spreads presently appear exceedingly generous.
@tamcohen: On Labour being set to lose seats in 3 local elections running (unprecedented), McDonnell blames "how the media have covered it"
Did you listen to LBC yesterday? One of the commentators, and a lot of the people that phoned in, kept talking about the biased media. Cringe worthy sometimes.
Let me guess, the commentator in question was Matt Zarb Cousin.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
If the West of England subset (Bristol West) is correct then the Lib Dems have a big problem in that the Labour vote is holding up well in middle class Lib-Lab potential targets then that combined with the kipper collapse/Tory surge means that for the GE quite honestly we may well be a long way up shit creek
Full disclosure: I'm on sub 18.5 LDs generally with selective backing in certain targets.
Another reason tonight is terrible for them - labour fullback everywhere might encourage lab ld switchers, but if the former holds up, either LDs go nowhere or maybe only eat into it a little and Tories might sneak some places from long distance.
According to the BBC, turnout in the elections was about 35%, up five point on what it was four years ago, when the English council seats were last contested.
(The Scottish and Welsh council elections were last held five years ago.)
So I see from Britain elects that the LD talk from Swansea was nonsense?
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
So I see from Britain elects that the LD talk from Swansea was nonsense?
I feel for them, I do, I voted for them yesterday, but it kind of feels like while a modest recovery at the ge would have a good result, that will be a struggle. Maybe it's time to just pack it in lads, leave it as lab vs Con and leave third wayers to pick least worst options.
Might as well vote Con at the ge. Labour need sending a message before they are acceptable as an option, and doesn't seem much point in trying to, in a small way, encourage the LDs by boosting their national share. They'll be lucky to get 10 seats.
I'm surprised they're not doing better. On the face of it, the anti-Brexit banner should be a good one for them. I wonder if it is becoming apparent that, although there are a good number who don't like the Brexit result, there is now an underlying sense from the main bulk of remain voters that it be respected. It's weird though - most remain voters I meet don't seem to fit that profile and the LDs seem to fit the bill for that profile of voter. Odd.
The LibDem vote is going up, but the Tory vote is going up by more, and mostly in the same places.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
If the West of England subset (Bristol West) is correct then the Lib Dems have a big problem in that the Labour vote is holding up well in middle class Lib-Lab potential targets then that combined with the kipper collapse/Tory surge means that for the GE quite honestly we may well be a long way up shit creek
Full disclosure: I'm on sub 18.5 LDs generally with selective backing in certain targets.
I'm sub 34.5, and some sub 18.5, and some sub 11.5...
Based on what I read from overnight, I'd now expect the Wiltshire LDs to lose seats. They should gain 2 from ind not standing this time, lose another to ind as they are not opposing a very strong defector, but they actually had a very good 2013, they made a good number if gains from con which with these figures unless the holders have built up good personal votes I'm now expecting them to lose.
When will we Learn? No doubt they'll continue to pick up great by-election wins, but the LDs are looking, well, moribund is a generous word, despite huge increase in membership. Bad luck to Williams though in west of England, almost pipped labour.
And who are ukip? Never heard of them.
LDs not moribund, but the blue tide is hard to survive. Seem to be surviving better than most. Some interesting Green gains too.
Green gains in the Summer Country the most interesting sub plot for me. Admitted Frome is, well, different but could they be becoming the acceptable anti-Tory vote instead of the Lib Dems
Straws in the wind, mind, just straws
What a farce that would be - the greens are far worse than the LDs, so much more extreme (as a party, I sure mist if it's local candidates are pretty normal).
I don't know the guy who won but he sounded nice and self-depreciating on the World Service (basically came across as a conservationalist minded independent than a fanatical watermelon
There is an argument that it might be better for Labour in the medium term if they let Corbyn stay in situ until the middle of the next parliament. Let him spend a couple of years faffing around being generally useless until the Brexit issue is neutralised, followed by a swift post-Brexit defenestration and the election of a new broom who nobody's got the time to get bored with before the country goes to the polls in 2022. Who can effectively say Brexit is done and dusted now, let us concentrate on public services etc (almost an Atlee-an pitch).
Of course, there are 2 problems with this. Another couple of years could mean JC completing his takeover of the party apparatus and making it even more unelectable and unlikely to challenge for power. And the fact that Labour need an alternative leader who is going to appeal to the public, and goodness knows where they get them from.
No joke, if that happens they should shut down, just merge with some labour moderates under a new name. Big gains were always hard, some seats were at risk, but if that happens then all the recovery talk has been guff and there's no point thinking it will change.
With a well respected local candidate, in an area where they are strong and which voted heavily for Remain the LibDems came third.
They must have done very badly in the working-class areas of Bristol to the south and east. But they also underperformed in Bath which is worrying given it was supposed to be their number one target from the Conservatives at the general election.
If the West of England subset (Bristol West) is correct then the Lib Dems have a big problem in that the Labour vote is holding up well in middle class Lib-Lab potential targets then that combined with the kipper collapse/Tory surge means that for the GE quite honestly we may well be a long way up shit creek
Full disclosure: I'm on sub 18.5 LDs generally with selective backing in certain targets.
I'm sub 34.5, and some sub 18.5, and some sub 11.5...
Certainly a poor result for the LDs in WoE. But you have to wonder how many voted 1. Green 2. Lib Dem, and so consequently didn't count under the bizarre supplementary vote system.
Mr. kle4, if Corbyn gets crushed at the election, then wins the leadership again, that might not be a bad idea, especially as Labour would probably split anyway.
Probably get good odds on the Lib Dems getting fewer than 5 seats. Not sure there's a market on that specific band, though.
Alright. Who is ready for the sensational Scottish Tory Surge we will see in the next few hours?
splitting my sides already
Now my ARSE is in retirement, much like Prince Phil - full 24 page pullout out today in the Auchentennach Bugle of my rear wonderment, will you be providing a Turnip-ometer for the general election ?
@AlastairMeeks@Scrapheap_as_was - no problem, I had the template from 2014 and it only took a few hours to collate the information on Thursday afternoon.
With a well respected local candidate, in an area where they are strong and which voted heavily for Remain the LibDems came third.
Well parts of the area I presume voted leave, the bits that aren't Bristol and bath, but broadly I think that's right - he round have gotten in to the second phase but corbyn and labour still popular in bits of Bristol I gather.
Based on the Midlands result I expect Labour to win by a decent margin in Tees Valley
What Midlands result?
The mayoralty. Is it West of England I mean?
I cannot see the connection between West of England and Tees in this context. The latter was probably much more pro-Leave. I expect Labour to win but it could still be quite close.
If there was a universal collapse of Labour, it'd have been even more dramatic than this.
The Bristol area contains four universities, off the top of my head two world heritage sites, several major theatres and arts centres, lots of characterful restaurants and people who rely on cheap foreign workers and love going abroad three times a year, plus plenty of champagne socialists in the flats by the docks. I think I am right in saying that a mere seven years ago it didn't have a single Tory MP. It also contains some of the most deprived areas in the country with a high ethnic, especially Muslim, population.
If ever a place should have been favourable to the niche middle class guilt trip that Labour has become under Corbyn, it's Bristol. It wasn't.
Bristol was, wasn't it, just not enough to overcome the Tories from other areas?
Should have been more strongly Corbyn and they should have been picking up votes in Bath as well given its profile. OK, the Conservative win was narrow but it should the way Corbyn has been positioning himself have been narrow the other way.
Certainly a poor result for the LDs in WoE. But you have to wonder how many voted 1. Green 2. Lib Dem, and so consequently didn't count under the bizarre supplementary vote system.
Could be a few, and it's not my favourite system, but you have to win fights under the system you have, and they'll be gpfsving fptp in a month with no positive news to spin to tell people there's a point backing them.
With a well respected local candidate, in an area where they are strong and which voted heavily for Remain the LibDems came third.
Well parts of the area I presume voted leave, the bits that aren't Bristol and bath, but broadly I think that's right - he round have gotten in to the second phase but corbyn and labour still popular in bits of Bristol I gather.
South Gloucestershire voted Leave but by rather less than Bristol and Bath voted Remain.
Mr. kle4, if Corbyn gets crushed at the election, then wins the leadership again, that might not be a bad idea, especially as Labour would probably split anyway.
Probably get good odds on the Lib Dems getting fewer than 5 seats. Not sure there's a market on that specific band, though.
Mr. Eagles, serious comment on Sheffield Hallam?
Apparently the tactical Tories for Clegg voters have gone blue.
Oliver Coppard was a great candidate so him not standing is a blow, hard working class people in Hallam are going to be hit by Labour's mansion tax.
So Labour are going to slip back to third.
This will be a blue v yellow fight, if the voters don't vote based on the referendum I can see it happening.
Certainly a poor result for the LDs in WoE. But you have to wonder how many voted 1. Green 2. Lib Dem, and so consequently didn't count under the bizarre supplementary vote system.
Could be a few, and it's not my favourite system, but you have to win fights under the system you have, and they'll be gpfsving fptp in a month with no positive news to spin to tell people there's a point backing them.
Comments
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/860379870366494721
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/860380484681048065
It seems the national predicted kipper share of 3% comes from Thrasher:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/05/ukip-0-paul-nuttalls-party-faces-local-elections-wipeout-losing/
A useful map on there of which seats swing Tory as a result.
LD vote going up, but not enough for FPTP looks like the other story of this election.
The local results so far appear to be as successful as the Stop Brexit protest marches, a flop.
Yes. Yes, they will. And it will not be pretty.
If the West of England subset (Bristol West) is correct then the Lib Dems have a big problem in that the Labour vote is holding up well in middle class Lib-Lab potential targets then that combined with the kipper collapse/Tory surge means that for the GE quite honestly we may well be a long way up shit creek
Full disclosure: I'm on sub 18.5 LDs generally with selective backing in certain targets.
How did Nick Palmer get on in Nottingham, or hasn't it started counting yet?
If ever a place should have been favourable to the niche middle class guilt trip that Labour has become under Corbyn, it's Bristol. It wasn't.
I went to bed at midnightish.
Anyhow kudos for the spreadsheet. You saved LBC time and money having to collect the results!
Essentially it appears as if the LibDem vote share is up but the Con share is up substantially more. A closer analysis will be required at close of play in their target GE seats. However their GE seat spreads presently appear exceedingly generous.
Which of those isn't safe ??
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0
Palace intrigue...
Thanks for this useful summary, Mr. Smithson (and to Mr. D, of course).
Any ETA for the Street/Simon contest?
With a well respected local candidate, in an area where they are strong and which voted heavily for Remain the LibDems came third.
I'm a huge seller of the Lib Dems but I don't see them getting fewer than eight seats at worst.
(The Scottish and Welsh council elections were last held five years ago.)
Of course, there are 2 problems with this. Another couple of years could mean JC completing his takeover of the party apparatus and making it even more unelectable and unlikely to challenge for power. And the fact that Labour need an alternative leader who is going to appeal to the public, and goodness knows where they get them from.
Hallam is going Blue in five weeks time.
I hope Norman Lamb clings on.
Probably get good odds on the Lib Dems getting fewer than 5 seats. Not sure there's a market on that specific band, though.
Mr. Eagles, serious comment on Sheffield Hallam?
Or it might be alien all over again.
"I'm a Barbie girl in a Barbie world" usually does the trick.
Im pretty sure Corbyn leadership was meant to bring Green voters back to Lab. Among other advertised benefits (eg winning back Scotland)
see also: mobilising non-voters, firing up traditional base, building on momentum of leadership contest to form nationwide mass movement ...
Lib Dem surge is the new 'klaxon' warning
Something feels bad here.
I have to get to work. Enjoy the results day!
LDs not irrelevant or extinct though, just suffering under FPTP, vote share should be up.
Con hold Richmond?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/860141205836922880
Oliver Coppard was a great candidate so him not standing is a blow, hard working class people in Hallam are going to be hit by Labour's mansion tax.
So Labour are going to slip back to third.
This will be a blue v yellow fight, if the voters don't vote based on the referendum I can see it happening.
But I suspect you mean Richmond Park