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David Davis before Brexit:
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Don't think so. Tories and press have barely warmed up yet. Wait until locals are out of the way.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
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It depends what you mean by welfare. Older British citizens use a lot of services provided by EU27 states. Some of the money is reimbursed by the UK, some is not.Sandpit said:
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?SouthamObserver said:
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.Sandpit said:
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."?PAW said:"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
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The European Parliament referred today to the trade agreement with Africa having been put on hold by Africa as they need to know the UK's position outside Europe.
This must raise a question about other EU trade deals once tbe EU leaves if those countries main interest is with the UK.
I know there are some very knowledgable posters on this forum and I would be interested on their take on this issue0 -
Yes, when we came back we wouldn't be in a desperate position with a running clock. Any economic damage would have been shaken out and a 'no deal' situation would be the established status quo.Pulpstar said:
I think the EU will be quite prepared for us to just walk away from the table. They know we'll be back at some point.Casino_Royale said:
The EU does have leverage, because we would be worse affected by no deal than they would be. But the UK also has leverage, on money, security and trade. It just has less leverage.Pulpstar said:
The amount of leverage the EU has over us on these talks when push comes to shove ?Casino_Royale said:
On what?Pulpstar said:Are none of the leavers here worried that... Barnier might just be right ?
No deal means both sides would lose, and both sides recognise it's undesirable, so as long as the UK negotiates with skill, and is ultimately willing to walk if the EU does try to shove, then a reasonable deal should be agreed.0 -
If Labour matched their 1983 total of 209 seats, they'll have done well. Long way to go yet tho.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
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I think you winSlackbladder said:0 -
Kelvin Mackenzie has overstepped the mark with Corbyn knifed to death joke.0
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I'd suggest you would prefer the comments to be given a decent burial rather than arise zombie-like for the general amusement of Remainers and acute embarrassment of those that made themfreetochoose said:
My word you've copied and filed posts?AlastairMeeks said:
This one is quite an interesting one. In response to TSE commenting:kle4 said:
Just bloody name them then.AlastairMeeks said:I'm still waiting for some Leavers who last year had thought that negotiating with the EU was going to be a doddle to put their hands up and admit that it's going to be harder than they thought.
They're all so strangely shy.
"Eight years without access to the single market might just be bad for the economy."
one poster commented as follows:
"It would be an even worse disaster for the Eurozone nations. Those who suggest that the day after a LEAVE we would simply not trade with the EU are insane. No Range Rovers going to Ireland or BMWs arriving from Germany? Yeah right! Maybe they'd just stop assembling Airbuses for a few years while the negotiations trundled on. Germany in particular relies on abuse of its position in the Euro to maintain an export model it should not by rights be able to sustain. We are a huge and vital market for the Eurozone. The EU could keep eg South Africa in the slow lane because nothing was going to break by so doing. Trying the same with the UK could actually precipitate the EU collapse SeanT was referring to."
No idea who wrote that but I'd suggest you have issues.0 -
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Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.0 -
Again.Yorkcity said:Kelvin Mackenzie has overstepped the mark with Corbyn knifed to death joke.
Kelvin is the K. T. Hopkins of fat, old, white men.0 -
I think it is very possible on June 8th Labour doesn't win the popular vote/most MPs in any of the three mainland countries. In 1983 Foot managed it in two out of three.Sean_F said:
Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.0 -
Yeah, that was what I was going to go for.Slackbladder said:
Lots of people over-complicate things on this site.0 -
On 47/30 Baxter gives Labour 177 seats, but I suspect the result would be worse, given differential swing.0
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Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible0 -
What are the odds on Lab gain Cannock Chase?
7/7 terror attacks hero Paul Dadge to fight Cannock Chase seat for Labour
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/77-terror-attacks-hero-paul-dadge-to-fight-cannock-chase-seat-for-labour-a3529136.html0 -
Do you mean using all six or using some of them?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible0 -
Are we allowed to use hyperbolic tangents?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible0 -
The only way I know is with all six numbers.philiph said:
Do you mean using all six or using some of them?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible0 -
I think the Yougov poll showing a 10% lead in Wales was an outlier. I think the result (in terms of vote share) will be somewhere close to level-pegging in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is very possible on June 8th Labour doesn't win the popular vote/most MPs in any of the three mainland countries. In 1983 Foot managed it in two out of three.Sean_F said:
Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.0 -
Mr. 1000, psychologists have found that if you present a mathematical problem that has a certain approach to the solution, and follow it up with similar ones, people become so habitually attuned to using that method they stick with it for later problems even when there are simpler and obvious alternatives to use.0
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Davis is looking more than a but dead but not dead, Brezhnev-style in that photo.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear, I was right about David Davis
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I don't. Comres for ITV has shown the same result.Sean_F said:
I think the Yougov poll showing a 10% lead in Wales was an outlier. I think the result (in terms of vote share) will be somewhere close to level-pegging in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is very possible on June 8th Labour doesn't win the popular vote/most MPs in any of the three mainland countries. In 1983 Foot managed it in two out of three.Sean_F said:
Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales - I heard Canada's trade with the EU is 45% with the UK. Does anyone know if the EU agreement with Canada allows free trade in wheat?0
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No.Richard_Nabavi said:
Are we allowed to use hyperbolic tangents?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible
Just addition, subtraction, division, and multiplication
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I've just come across an interesting article on the last US presidential election: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html A brief quote:
A select group of top Democratic Party strategists have used new data about last year’s presidential election to reach a startling conclusion about why Hillary Clinton lost. Now they just need to persuade the rest of the party they’re right.
Many Democrats have a shorthand explanation for Clinton’s defeat: Her base didn’t turn out, Donald Trump’s did and the difference was too much to overcome.
But new information shows that Clinton had a much bigger problem with voters who had supported President Barack Obama in 2012 but backed Trump four years later.0 -
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pfa3MHLLSWITheScreamingEagles said:
No.Richard_Nabavi said:
Are we allowed to use hyperbolic tangents?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible
Just addition, subtraction, division, and multiplication0 -
Existing trade deals will largely not be affected as they - typically - are between the EU and another country (or set of countries). See EU-Singapore for example. There are some exceptions where there will need to be treaty modification. So, the EFTA-EU EEA Treaties are between the indvidual constituent countries, the EU and the EFTA states (but not EFTA itself).Big_G_NorthWales said:The European Parliament referred today to the trade agreement with Africa having been put on hold by Africa as they need to know the UK's position outside Europe.
This must raise a question about other EU trade deals once tbe EU leaves if those countries main interest is with the UK.
I know there are some very knowledgable posters on this forum and I would be interested on their take on this issue
There are existing EU-(North) Africa trade deals through the Euromed Agreements, and there are a separate set of agreements (the Generalised Scheme of Preference) with the poorest African countries which removes tariffs on almost everything from those countries into the EU (Except, disgracefully, flowers. For which both vested interests - the Dutch - and the charities bear equal blame.) Neither of these would be affected by our departure, except in that the UK would need to forge new agreements.
The EU is currently in advanced negotiations with Mexico, Japan and India. I would expect the Mexicans to reach an agreement fairly quickly, simply because of all the pressure they've been under from Mr Trump. I do not expect India to be completed, for various reasons. And I have no special knowledge of the EU-Japan deal, and don't know whether that will be impacted by our departure.0 -
Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 110
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Oh absolutely, but is there any hard data that quantifies the impact of UK citizens living in other EU countries? We need this information if we are to negotiate effectively.SouthamObserver said:
It depends what you mean by welfare. Older British citizens use a lot of services provided by EU27 states. Some of the money is reimbursed by the UK, some is not.Sandpit said:
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?SouthamObserver said:
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.Sandpit said:
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."?PAW said:"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.
Given their attitude so far, Spain clearly think that the positive impact of British pensioners retiring there and spending their cash somewhat outweighs the negatives of healthcare costs to British retirees.
Maybe once the expat retirees get seriously ill they return to the UK, I don't know.0 -
isam said:
I think you winSlackbladder said:
Your operator priority is wrong there. It's (25+5)*10 as written you get 75.isam said:
I think you winSlackbladder said:0 -
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
Lesson in probability: this is a genuine film of someone flipping heads ten times in a row.Pulpstar said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
Does anyone know how many elections post 1945 have had Labour do better than the polls suggested? Excluding elections such as 2010 or 1983 which saw a polling surge of a third party. I am under the impression that Labour have been overestimated in the polls at nearly every other election, whether they were on the winning side or not (even 1997 was several points out).
In other words, can we practically assume that there will be overestimation of Labour in these polls compared to the final result, given that there is no surging 3rd party this time round? When we see a new poll perhaps we should just knock 2 off Labour and add 2 to the Tories to get a true picture of what's happening.
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(100 + 3) x 75 x 6 / 50 + 25 = 952TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Richard_Nabavi said:
Are we allowed to use hyperbolic tangents?TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible
Just addition, subtraction, division, and multiplication0 -
Do you have a link?Pulpstar said:
I don't. Comres for ITV has shown the same result.Sean_F said:
I think the Yougov poll showing a 10% lead in Wales was an outlier. I think the result (in terms of vote share) will be somewhere close to level-pegging in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is very possible on June 8th Labour doesn't win the popular vote/most MPs in any of the three mainland countries. In 1983 Foot managed it in two out of three.Sean_F said:
Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.0 -
Just replayed Sky report back and they do refer to the West Midland Metropolitan area - so that maybe explains itTheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
TMICIPMdr_spyn said:New Panel Base poll?
CON 47 (-2)
LAB 30 (+3)
LD 10 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)
Remain 50 (+2)
Leave 50 (-2)
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/8597060539734671380 -
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.Sandpit said:
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?SouthamObserver said:
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.Sandpit said:
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."?PAW said:"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.0 -
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
Does the French president have a vice-president who would takeover automatically if the president were to die or be otherwise incapacitated?0
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This is precisely why the odds prior to the GE being announced were so wrong for Street/Simon. West Midlands / the west of the Midlands areas being confused.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 25
With the GE a factor, Street might just make it. That doesn't stop the bet I made with the original information being incorrect, and to be honest with subsequent staking I won't mind if it loses.0 -
Mr. Eagles, that's a knotty one, and unfair to give to someone prone to procrastinating anyway. Could get close:
100 + 50 – 3 * 6 +75 = 9570 -
Thanks for thatrcs1000 said:
Existing trade deals will largely not be affected as they - typically - are between the EU and another country (or set of countries). See EU-Singapore for example. There are some exceptions where there will need to be treaty modification. So, the EFTA-EU EEA Treaties are between the indvidual constituent countries, the EU and the EFTA states (but not EFTA itself).Big_G_NorthWales said:The European Parliament referred today to the trade agreement with Africa having been put on hold by Africa as they need to know the UK's position outside Europe.
This must raise a question about other EU trade deals once tbe EU leaves if those countries main interest is with the UK.
I know there are some very knowledgable posters on this forum and I would be interested on their take on this issue
There are existing EU-(North) Africa trade deals through the Euromed Agreements, and there are a separate set of agreements (the Generalised Scheme of Preference) with the poorest African countries which removes tariffs on almost everything from those countries into the EU (Except, disgracefully, flowers. For which both vested interests - the Dutch - and the charities bear equal blame.) Neither of these would be affected by our departure, except in that the UK would need to forge new agreements.
The EU is currently in advanced negotiations with Mexico, Japan and India. I would expect the Mexicans to reach an agreement fairly quickly, simply because of all the pressure they've been under from Mr Trump. I do not expect India to be completed, for various reasons. And I have no special knowledge of the EU-Japan deal, and don't know whether that will be impacted by our departure.0 -
At least you can laugh at yourself.bigjohnowls said:
TMICIPMdr_spyn said:New Panel Base poll?
CON 47 (-2)
LAB 30 (+3)
LD 10 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)
Remain 50 (+2)
Leave 50 (-2)
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/8597060539734671380 -
0
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That's 207.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's a knotty one, and unfair to give to someone prone to procrastinating anyway. Could get close:
100 + 50 – 3 * 6 +75 = 9570 -
How many other films did they make ... ?Sandpit said:
Lesson in probability: this is a genuine film of someone flipping heads ten times in a row.Pulpstar said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
If you read carefully it looks like there is no poll , they are analysing data from polls ie sub samples .Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 25
They also do not say conservatives will gain 10 seats , they say up to 10 so it may be 2 or 3 only .0 -
The comments section is informative on that video, specifically Watercrane.BannedInParis said:
How many other films did they make ... ?Sandpit said:
Lesson in probability: this is a genuine film of someone flipping heads ten times in a row.Pulpstar said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, lack of brackets to blame. 147 * 6 = 882, + 75 = 9570
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Yes, I can actually see that happening in the fullness of time. Does anyone imagine however that the new deal will be better than the one we tore up?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, when we came back we wouldn't be in a desperate position with a running clock. Any economic damage would have been shaken out and a 'no deal' situation would be the established status quo.Pulpstar said:
I think the EU will be quite prepared for us to just walk away from the table. They know we'll be back at some point.Casino_Royale said:
The EU does have leverage, because we would be worse affected by no deal than they would be. But the UK also has leverage, on money, security and trade. It just has less leverage.Pulpstar said:
The amount of leverage the EU has over us on these talks when push comes to shove ?Casino_Royale said:
On what?Pulpstar said:Are none of the leavers here worried that... Barnier might just be right ?
No deal means both sides would lose, and both sides recognise it's undesirable, so as long as the UK negotiates with skill, and is ultimately willing to walk if the EU does try to shove, then a reasonable deal should be agreed.
Maybe it will happen so far down the line that comparisons will be meaningless.0 -
It would have the Conservatives gaining Wolverhampton SW and NE, Walsall N and S, Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston, and Erdington, Coventry S and NW, and Dudley N.TheScreamingEagles said:
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
Its (100+6)*3=318Pulpstar said:
That's 207.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's a knotty one, and unfair to give to someone prone to procrastinating anyway. Could get close:
100 + 50 – 3 * 6 +75 = 957
*75=23850
-50=23800
/25=952
Its from Countdown, I linked to the video above0 -
I believe it is the President of the Senate who takes over, and a special election has to be called within 30 days. It happened when Pompidou died.SouthamObserver said:Does the French president have a vice-president who would takeover automatically if the president were to die or be otherwise incapacitated?
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Lol - what do you know?SouthamObserver said:Does the French president have a vice-president who would takeover automatically if the president were to die or be otherwise incapacitated?
0 -
The repercussion is in the perceived loss of value in the deal if one of the wealthiest markets is no longer accessible. It's like paying for a full Sky deal and suddenly finding your sports subscription is no longer part of the package yet the price hasn't moved.rcs1000 said:
Existing trade deals will largely not be affected as they - typically - are between the EU and another country (or set of countries). See EU-Singapore for example. There are some exceptions where there will need to be treaty modification. So, the EFTA-EU EEA Treaties are between the indvidual constituent countries, the EU and the EFTA states (but not EFTA itself).Big_G_NorthWales said:The European Parliament referred today to the trade agreement with Africa having been put on hold by Africa as they need to know the UK's position outside Europe.
This must raise a question about other EU trade deals once tbe EU leaves if those countries main interest is with the UK.
I know there are some very knowledgable posters on this forum and I would be interested on their take on this issue
There are existing EU-(North) Africa trade deals through the Euromed Agreements, and there are a separate set of agreements (the Generalised Scheme of Preference) with the poorest African countries which removes tariffs on almost everything from those countries into the EU (Except, disgracefully, flowers. For which both vested interests - the Dutch - and the charities bear equal blame.) Neither of these would be affected by our departure, except in that the UK would need to forge new agreements.
The EU is currently in advanced negotiations with Mexico, Japan and India. I would expect the Mexicans to reach an agreement fairly quickly, simply because of all the pressure they've been under from Mr Trump. I do not expect India to be completed, for various reasons. And I have no special knowledge of the EU-Japan deal, and don't know whether that will be impacted by our departure.
I think I'm right in saying that for the major commonwealth countries the UK is the #1 trade destination inside the existing EU.
The assumption all along has been that the value of foreign investment in the UK is that they are getting into the EU, but for some the value of a deal with the EU is getting into the UK.
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The woman, probably a Tory activist plant, said there was more to the election than Brexit with which TMay agreed. It was similar to Tory questions at. PMQs. "Does the PM agree that she is marvellous?"Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are out of touch. Yesterday BBC and Sky both provided extensive coverage of her canvassing in Cornwall, entering a discussion with a voter who disagreed with her, and undertaking interviewsstodge said:
Well, at least Tim is out there taking on the hostile voters. May is hiding behind her stage-managed events. Needless to say, there will be those who argue with the current Conservative ratings, there are no hostile anti-Conservative voters for May to meet.dr_spyn said:Tim Farron on the stump.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/8597007746616975360 -
I expect the West Midlands to be Corbyn's ground zero.Sean_F said:
It would have the Conservatives gaining Wolverhampton SW and NE, Walsall N and S, Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston, and Erdington, Coventry S and NW, and Dudley N.TheScreamingEagles said:
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
Morris' sum is different thoughisam said:
Its (100+6)*3=318Pulpstar said:
That's 207.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that's a knotty one, and unfair to give to someone prone to procrastinating anyway. Could get close:
100 + 50 – 3 * 6 +75 = 957
*75=23850
-50=23800
/25=952
Its from Countdown, I linked to the video above
100 + 50 – 3 * 6 +75 = 207
((100 + 6) * 3 * 75 - 50 ) / 25 = 952.
I await Abbott's attempt...0 -
The Sky data poll this morning says the conservatives are up 10 points compared with 2015, labour and ukip down 6 each. The poll also says that within the 'jams' in this area she has added 15%.MarkSenior said:
If you read carefully it looks like there is no poll , they are analysing data from polls ie sub samples .Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 25
They also do not say conservatives will gain 10 seats , they say up to 10 so it may be 2 or 3 only .
The projected seats were conservatives 17 (+10) - labour 11 (-10)0 -
Pretty sure that I have seen other subsamples showing Tory leads in Wales. ICM for The Sun had it as 35/21 (not adjusted forDKs) but ICM for the Guardian had it at 29/31 (again not adjusted). The latter poll had the Tories trailing the SNP by 31/38 (again not N/K adjusted)Sean_F said:
I think the Yougov poll showing a 10% lead in Wales was an outlier. I think the result (in terms of vote share) will be somewhere close to level-pegging in Wales.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it is very possible on June 8th Labour doesn't win the popular vote/most MPs in any of the three mainland countries. In 1983 Foot managed it in two out of three.Sean_F said:
Labour won 41 Scottish seats in 1983.Danny565 said:Now looking very conceivable that Labour will beat Michael Foot's voteshare (though probably get less seats) #strawgrasping
They'll win somewhere between 0 and 2 on June 8th.
The benchmark is therefore to match the 168 seats that Labour won in England and Wales in 1983.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_guardian_campaignpoll4_april28-02may.pdf0 -
You know this election might show that even a Labour figure as terrible as Sion Simon is orders of magnitude better than CorbynTheScreamingEagles said:
I expect the West Midlands to be Corbyn's ground zero.Sean_F said:
It would have the Conservatives gaining Wolverhampton SW and NE, Walsall N and S, Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston, and Erdington, Coventry S and NW, and Dudley N.TheScreamingEagles said:
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 25
How bad would that make Corbyn, jeez.0 -
PB BRAINS TRUST - LEND ME YOUR EARS
From memory, for the last election there was some kind of town cryer at St Paul's Cathedral announcing the dissolution of Parliament and the date at which it will next assemble.
I would quite like to watch this (think it's called the dissolution proclamation) but I haven't seen anything official. Can anyone tell me when it will happen?0 -
Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.0 -
South Yorkshire and the North East won't be too pleasant, either, I should think, although Labour are starting with bigger majorities there.TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect the West Midlands to be Corbyn's ground zero.Sean_F said:
It would have the Conservatives gaining Wolverhampton SW and NE, Walsall N and S, Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston, and Erdington, Coventry S and NW, and Dudley N.TheScreamingEagles said:
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 25
0 -
On the other hand, African countries probably won't be as obliged to open up their service markets as they were before (which they'll probably like).chestnut said:
The repercussion is in the perceived loss of value in the deal if one of the wealthiest markets is no longer accessible. It's like paying for a full Sky deal and suddenly finding your sports subscription is no longer part of the package yet the price hasn't moved.rcs1000 said:
Existing trade deals will largely not be affected as they - typically - are between the EU and another country (or set of countries). See EU-Singapore for example. There are some exceptions where there will need to be treaty modification. So, the EFTA-EU EEA Treaties are between the indvidual constituent countries, the EU and the EFTA states (but not EFTA itself).Big_G_NorthWales said:The European Parliament referred today to the trade agreement with Africa having been put on hold by Africa as they need to know the UK's position outside Europe.
This must raise a question about other EU trade deals once tbe EU leaves if those countries main interest is with the UK.
I know there are some very knowledgable posters on this forum and I would be interested on their take on this issue
There are existing EU-(North) Africa trade deals through the Euromed Agreements, and there are a separate set of agreements (the Generalised Scheme of Preference) with the poorest African countries which removes tariffs on almost everything from those countries into the EU (Except, disgracefully, flowers. For which both vested interests - the Dutch - and the charities bear equal blame.) Neither of these would be affected by our departure, except in that the UK would need to forge new agreements.
The EU is currently in advanced negotiations with Mexico, Japan and India. I would expect the Mexicans to reach an agreement fairly quickly, simply because of all the pressure they've been under from Mr Trump. I do not expect India to be completed, for various reasons. And I have no special knowledge of the EU-Japan deal, and don't know whether that will be impacted by our departure.
I think I'm right in saying that for the major commonwealth countries the UK is the #1 trade destination inside the existing EU.
The assumption all along has been that the value of foreign investment in the UK is that they are getting into the EU, but for some the value of a deal with the EU is getting into the UK.
I'd be very surprised if there was any serious impact on trade deal availability to the EU post Brexit. It's still one of the world's two largest single custom areas.0 -
If everything goes to plan I shall be doing my best to turn Don Valley blue.Sean_F said:
South Yorkshire and the North East won't be too pleasant, either, I should think, although Labour are starting with bigger majorities there.TheScreamingEagles said:
I expect the West Midlands to be Corbyn's ground zero.Sean_F said:
It would have the Conservatives gaining Wolverhampton SW and NE, Walsall N and S, Birmingham Northfield, Edgbaston, and Erdington, Coventry S and NW, and Dudley N.TheScreamingEagles said:
Makes sense.Sean_F said:
It might be a poll of the West Midlands Conurbation,TheScreamingEagles said:
Yer what ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky data poll just now suggests labour will lose 10 seats in the West Midlands. In 2015 labour won 21 seats, conservatives 7 so that would flip round to conservatives 17 labour 11
In 2015 in the West Mids the Tories won 34 seats, Lab won 250 -
Do they get 'free' health care - or is it reimbursed by the NHS (aka 'UK Tax payers'?)felix said:
Huge numbers of pensioners in Spain and France currently get free healthcare courtesy of the EU. If that was withdrawn it could cause massive hardship for many. They also get UK pensions via the double tax arrangements which are uprated as in the UK. Huge issues for several hundred thousand Brits in the EU.Sandpit said:
How many Brits are claiming welfare in other EU countries, are there any statistics on this anywhere?SouthamObserver said:
The current right of EU citizens in the UK is equal treatment with UK citizens, subject to a few specified exceptions. The same applies to UK citizens in EU27 countries. It seems that some more extreme Brexiteers are willing to sell these Brits down the river.Sandpit said:
Surely they mean "EU citizens *currently* in UK..."?PAW said:"EU citizens in UK must enjoy current rights for life" - will continue mass immigration.
But no, it's bollocks. On the day we leave the EU we need to withdraw tax credits and housing benefits from anyone without UK resident status. We don't need to continue to have tens of thousands of Romanian Big Issue sellers in London, their families supported by British taxpayers.0 -
BigG does he tells us everyday .Then again he probably at the time said the same about every conservative leader.Barnesian said:
The woman, probably a Tory activist plant, said there was more to the election than Brexit with which TMay agreed. It was similar to Tory questions at. PMQs. "Does the PM agree that she is marvellous?"Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are out of touch. Yesterday BBC and Sky both provided extensive coverage of her canvassing in Cornwall, entering a discussion with a voter who disagreed with her, and undertaking interviewsstodge said:
Well, at least Tim is out there taking on the hostile voters. May is hiding behind her stage-managed events. Needless to say, there will be those who argue with the current Conservative ratings, there are no hostile anti-Conservative voters for May to meet.dr_spyn said:Tim Farron on the stump.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/8597007746616975360 -
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.0 -
511 - most were a lot shorter.BannedInParis said:
How many other films did they make ... ?Sandpit said:
Lesson in probability: this is a genuine film of someone flipping heads ten times in a row.Pulpstar said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
If she was a plant she was a lib dem - she was very angry as was her husband over the EUBarnesian said:
The woman, probably a Tory activist plant, said there was more to the election than Brexit with which TMay agreed. It was similar to Tory questions at. PMQs. "Does the PM agree that she is marvellous?"Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really are out of touch. Yesterday BBC and Sky both provided extensive coverage of her canvassing in Cornwall, entering a discussion with a voter who disagreed with her, and undertaking interviewsstodge said:
Well, at least Tim is out there taking on the hostile voters. May is hiding behind her stage-managed events. Needless to say, there will be those who argue with the current Conservative ratings, there are no hostile anti-Conservative voters for May to meet.dr_spyn said:Tim Farron on the stump.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/8597007746616975360 -
Mr. F, if Labour lose seats in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire it'll be a very long night for them.
Mr. Pulpstar, even without brackets, just going sequentially with mine you get the right (well, five off, but I knew that) outcome.
You're just being a typical EU-phile, making up numbers to try and make the heroic and patriotic British look bad.0 -
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book 0 -
Anecdotally (It might be different for other cities) a shedload of leave votes came from the Labour areas of Coventry (Longford, Holbrook, Henley)
The Remain votes came strongly from the 'Tory/middle class' areas (Wainbody, Earlsdon, Cheylesmore) and also St Michaels - which is the very strongest (And poorest) Labour ward but demographically alot more mixed than say Longford - which is VERY wwc.
So whilst Labour might have voted to remain overall, alot of Labour voters where it could matter voted to leave.
A horrific distribution for Corbyn & Co.0 -
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
More
Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.0 -
Did smack a little of soneone who has been crunching numbers on Baxterkyf_100 said:
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
0 -
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!kyf_100 said:
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Can anyone get 952 using these six numbers
100, 75, 50, 25, 6, 3
It is possible
6 + 3 = 9
25 reversed = 52
9 + 52 = 952
Easy.
0 -
A commonly held sentiment among the commentariat:
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/859722089665884162
Not actually backed by polling - Corbyn is better rated by the voter than Hague or Foot (and May much better than Thatcher or Blair) - but what do voters know?0 -
It's the flip side of the LibDems on 10 rather than 15, and surely relates in part at least to the adjustments and fiddle factors the pollsters are making to the raw datarottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 20m20 minutes ago
More
Could a pollster speculate on why polls show Labour at 2015 levels, when that runs counter to everything we're hearing from the ground?
Exactly as we have been asking on here.0 -
Labour to change inheritance tax:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-plan-to-impose-inheritance-tax-on-estates-worth-425000-a3529116.html
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.0 -
If you take out Kendall, maybe.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!kyf_100 said:
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book
Kendall will be overwhemingly Farron though.0 -
Which after various attempts at electoral decapitation by progressives would cause a wry smile to enlighten the faces of the cynics of the world.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!kyf_100 said:
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book0 -
I think this blog post provides what you're looking for:Paristonda said:Does anyone know how many elections post 1945 have had Labour do better than the polls suggested? Excluding elections such as 2010 or 1983 which saw a polling surge of a third party. I am under the impression that Labour have been overestimated in the polls at nearly every other election, whether they were on the winning side or not (even 1997 was several points out).
In other words, can we practically assume that there will be overestimation of Labour in these polls compared to the final result, given that there is no surging 3rd party this time round? When we see a new poll perhaps we should just knock 2 off Labour and add 2 to the Tories to get a true picture of what's happening.
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-1-how-accurate-are-the-opinion-polls/0 -
This is a great way to convince the children of the baby boomers to vote Tory imo.rottenborough said:Labour to change inheritance tax:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-plan-to-impose-inheritance-tax-on-estates-worth-425000-a3529116.html
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.0 -
Sir Lynton thought the seat was winnable in 2015 but its remoteness precluded sending any resources to the seat.philiph said:
Which after various attempts at electoral decapitation by progressives would cause a wry smile to enlighten the faces of the cynics of the world.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale!kyf_100 said:
It's the way the guy says "I hope you get six seats this time" that makes me think he's actually quite well informed. We often say that people don't pay much attention to politics outside our little bubble but I reckon a lot of the general public is better informed than we think.dyedwoolie said:
Indeed. Then Tim declared he was pleased to meet real people unlike TM. It was all rather silly but crammed full of anecdotal goodness.kyf_100 said:Not sure if this has been posted already but does this count as an anecdote alert?
65 year old confronts Tim Farron, declares he knew what he was voting for last year, says 'I hope you only get 6 seats this time' (me too - I took the 10/1 on BF Sportsbook!) - says he has always voted Labour but for the first time will be voting Theresa May.
Then he salutes.
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/859700774661697536
I have a hundred quid on Labour < 150 seats, was thinking about cashing out for a slight profit, stuff like this makes me less sure.
Or maybe he's a PB regular and he's bet heavily on the Lib Dems getting < 11 seats this time around and he's just trying to talk up his book0 -
What is our net contribution to the EU budget? I thought it was £250M per week or ballpark £12bn per year
So how is the exit bill €100bn? That only make sense if we are staying in for another like 7-8 years or something??
What obligations do they claim we have after we leave? Why are there any at all?
0 -
Battlebus would have got stuck in the narrow lanes between a flock of Herdwick sheep and a caravan.TheScreamingEagles said:Sir Lynton thought the seat was winnable in 2015 but its remoteness precluded sending any resources to the seat.
0 -
well, probably not 511. No point in filming tail head head head head etcArthur_Penny said:
511 - most were a lot shorter.BannedInParis said:
How many other films did they make ... ?Sandpit said:
Lesson in probability: this is a genuine film of someone flipping heads ten times in a row.Pulpstar said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
Corbyn's playing a dangerous game, how many homes in London are worth £500K or more?rottenborough said:Labour to change inheritance tax:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-plan-to-impose-inheritance-tax-on-estates-worth-425000-a3529116.html
Calling Daily Mail front page graphics guy - you are needed urgently.0
