politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

chestnut said:

The paper published today by the Irish government strongly infers that many of the stories in the press are absolute nonsense.

I suspect many individual countries want a deal.

But the EU commission want to rain hellfire on us for stepping out of line.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour is expecting to spend less than half as much as the Tories on the general election campaign amid a drive for money donations from its 500,000 members.

Insiders said Labour had already raised around £3.8m for a possible poll when Theresa May announced a snap election two weeks ago. The party added that it had since received £1m in small donations.

Fundraising efforts will continue among union backers and its members. Officials hope this will bring at least another £3m. But private donations from wealthy figures have failed to materialise, Labour insiders said.

The Conservatives consistently spend close to the £19m general election spending limit, and are currently in the middle of a spending drive among their wealthy donors.

One Labour insider said their party would probably raise £7m in total, £5m less than in the 2015 general election under Ed Miliband.

“We are going to be outspent. Even if we had got to 2020, we would have been outspent. It is a reality of life now that the Tories can raise much more money at short notice for a short campaign,” a source said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/labour-expects-to-spend-less-than-half-tories-on-general-election-2017-campaign?CMP=twt_gu

All party's use the threat of the other party outspending them as a spur to raise money from their supporter and that's what that article in the Guardian is. That's why its appearing in a labour sympathising Newspaper.

When you add the money given by all the new members last year to the Millions that Len McClusky can now pass over from the Unite Union Political fund.

With the overall result as good as predetermined, I think the conservatives will find it hard to raise funds, and likely to be heavily outspent. May probably realises this but also realises that it will not matter as she will probably win anyway.

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

If this is true - if! - it's more evidence that the EU have no intention of negotiating and intend to abandon talks very quickly.

You cannot ask for a figure based on a long-agreed budget (which would be a reasonable position) and then suddenly say an extra 67% was there and had only just been noticed. You look like either a crook or a moron (or both).

In fact, they are looking more and more like the dubious client out for a fast buck who's been got at by a no-win, no fee shark, who demands the highest figure and doesn't care when the judge actually starts laughing.

I wonder which sharks lawyers, accountants and other agents are planning to make the most money out of the Brexit talks, whether on one side or the other.

Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?

another_richard said:

Tykejohnno said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MSmithsonPB: Why's TMay been campaigning in N Cornwall with an 8k CON majority over LDs?

Perhaps you could explain to Mike that the Conservatives have all the seats in Cornwall - so any visit by May will be in Conservative seats with hefty majorities.

Although I thought the visit focused on St Ives constituency ?

Mike post like he's worried ;-)

I think its fair to say that the election isn't proceeding as the LibDems hoped it would be.

I wonder if OGH is going to vote swap again - it would give us a clue as to which constituency the LibDems are panicking about.

I am modestly optimistic. I never expected a quick road back. Some council gains this weekend will put a spring in the step of our troops.

The UKIP to Con swing is going to be tough to overcome, but I expect plenty of good second places across the country and a voteshare in the low teens.

Floater said:

voxpop on sky from Wales - 70 year old woman voting tories for first time.

She obviously didn't get Don's memo

Not just Wales: Merthyr Tydfil.

SeanT said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I'm loving the election. The Abbott interview is the single funniest interview in the history of politics. It just IS. Find me something better.

What is grim is Brexit. The EU wants Diamond Brexit, they're behaving like a mafia gang, so that's where we are headed. They are loathsome, they are acting like our enemies. Fuck them all. Black Hole Brexit it is.

I think black hole Brexit is the hardest it could possibly be, given it has infinite density. It does not have good connotations for the future post-Brexit though, unlike Diamond Brexit.

glw said:

ydoethur said:

If this is true - if! - it's more evidence that the EU have no intention of negotiating and intend to abandon talks very quickly.

You cannot ask for a figure based on a long-agreed budget (which would be a reasonable position) and then suddenly say an extra 67% was there and had only just been noticed. You look like either a crook or a moron (or both).

I wonder how much of this is driven by the EU's desire to finesse the issue of the shortfall by getting the UK to pay in for as long as possible? So it's not necessarily anything that May or the UK government has said, but perhaps an unwillingness by EU member states to dig deep into their own pockets.

That is precisely the problem. It was clear from reading Junckers briefing (which was to a German audience to explain how difficult the Brits could be so when you lose car jobs because I don't want a deal it's their fault) the issue of the cash is that they can't raise it elsewhere.

The issue is that whilst there is some appearance of unity in the 27 many are desperate for a trade deal. Juncker doesn't want one as it would cross his red line that the UK must be poorer after Brexit.

david_herdson said:

Floater said:

voxpop on sky from Wales - 70 year old woman voting tories for first time.

She obviously didn't get Don's memo

Not just Wales: Merthyr Tydfil.

A Tory voter in Merthyr Tydfil? I thought they were officially a protected species and only kept in zoos. Moreover, it's difficult to find breeding pairs.

Let's just check the odds for Labour to lose Liverpool Wavertree...

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

Look forward to voting for the first time for a female PM - I was only three in 1979

Ishmael_Z said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

Early days, game of 2 halves, a lot can happen in 36 days. But yes, I'm with you on that.

It won't go to penalties.

Nigelb said:

JonCisBack said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

Ridiculous. They know we won;t just meekly hand over €100bn for nothing.

We need to wait until not only our election but Merkel's is over. Then everyone can stop the silly posturing and have a grown up negotiation

Maybe we should counter with minus 50bn ?

That might be classed as posturing.

If they don't want to negotiate we should just walk away and get on with making the best of it.

5.5% tariffs is outweighed by the fall in the £ anyway for exporters. Imports will be expensive but we import too much crap anyway

We'll manage, though we'll be worse off for a few years.

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?

I like dandelion and burdock, but where are you getting it at more than £19 a bottle?

Sorry I meant 19p a litre stuff you find in corner shops...I just done a what is now called a Diane Abbott...

another_richard said:

Tykejohnno said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MSmithsonPB: Why's TMay been campaigning in N Cornwall with an 8k CON majority over LDs?

Perhaps you could explain to Mike that the Conservatives have all the seats in Cornwall - so any visit by May will be in Conservative seats with hefty majorities.

Although I thought the visit focused on St Ives constituency ?

Mike post like he's worried ;-)

I think its fair to say that the election isn't proceeding as the LibDems hoped it would be.

I wonder if OGH is going to vote swap again - it would give us a clue as to which constituency the LibDems are panicking about.

Didn't he vote in Twickers last time ? If so, I expect a vote for Sir Vince might be on the cards ;-)

O/T apologies.

Found this a slightly depressing read this evening:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/apr/28/headteacher-and-deputy-send-resignation-letter-to-parents-longparish-primary-school-hampshire

I'm a governor at an 'outstanding' primary, and much of what they say rings true. Teachers and senior management teams have worked miracles over last ten years to improve standards, and they are still getting shafted with budget reductions (particularly here in Oxfordshire) but mostly staff recruitment challenges. So many young teachers think 'fuck that for a game of soldiers' once they've finished training, and experienced teachers are deserting the sinking ship.

Schools get it in the neck from politicians that they are failing pupils in general, and parents that they are failing their kids in particular. The perfect political punchbags.

Still, I'm sure grammar schools will sort all this out.

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

How did your canvassing go today, if you don't mind me asking ?

And you're not allowed to say 'Good responses on the doorstep'!

It is really all about who gets their vote out for the council elections now, you are not going to get many to change their minds, it is about the final delivery of pledge letters to your core vote, possibles and undecideds and then knocking them up on polling day itself and ensuring they turn out

david_herdson said:

Floater said:

voxpop on sky from Wales - 70 year old woman voting tories for first time.

She obviously didn't get Don's memo

Not just Wales: Merthyr Tydfil.

If the "Tories are scum" faction is voting Conservative for the first time... there is hope for Theresa May yet!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?

I like dandelion and burdock, but where are you getting it at more than £19 a bottle?

Sorry I meant 19p a litre stuff you find in corner shops...I just done a what is now called a Diane Abbott...

That would surely have been 0.19p a litre?

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

I suspect beyond a certain point - say about €35bn - it becomes somewhat irrelevant, because Mrs May will simply say "no".

Crashing out to WTO (which disallows discriminatory tariffs) would obviously not be very good for the UK economy. But nor would it be good for the EU economy.

It is the non-tariff barriers that really kill trade.

Hard Brexit is nailed on. Juncker is right. May and the Brexiteers are in another galaxy to the EU.

If May is in another galaxy, so is Juncker with the new 100bn Euro demand.

Scott_P said:

HYUFD said:

I did find 1 policeman and 1 black cab driver who did not like May or the Tories

Will either of them vote Corbyn?

I expect the policeman will vote LD, the cab driver could go for either Corbyn or UKIP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are hatched. However the destruction of labour is now a national need to enable the end of Corbyn and his cohort and provide the opportunity for a new party to rise from the ashes and in time start to provide a sensible opposition

I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understand their anger but they only have themselves to blame

I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority

HYUFD and Big G

Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A Conservative parliamentary candidate has attracted derision after suggesting that voters in his constituency cannot consider themselves working class if they drink Costa coffee.

Anthony Calvert, who was confirmed as the Tory candidate for Wakefield at the general election last week, recounted a hostile encounter with a voter at the town's train station.

"Man recognises me at Wakefield Westgate. 'These f*ckin Tories, always looking to trample on t'working class, like me'. Man walks into Costa," he tweeted.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anthony-calvert-wakefield-tory-candidate-criticises-voter-for-drinking-coffee-a7714336.html

Andy Burnham and posh coffee...

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wednesday's TIMES: 'You can't lead Brexit talks, EU tells May" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859517896820744193/photo/1

Aren't they saying she can only negotiate with the lead negotiator?

That said, I doubt this will stop her talking about it with the leaders of Europe.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

How did your canvassing go today, if you don't mind me asking ?

And you're not allowed to say 'Good responses on the doorstep'!

It is really all about who gets their vote out for the council elections now, you are not going to get many to change their minds, it is about the final delivery of pledge letters to your core vote, possibles and undecideds and then knocking them up on polling day itself and ensuring they turn out

I'm disappointed in my area - only 1 day left for 2 of the parties to drop off their first leaflets. It's an urban division, even if the candidate has to do it alone by themselves I should get at least one.

I've had one from Labour but it was an 'insert candidate name here' job

From the rest, nothing.

So I've no idea how to vote.

Good night all.

bobajobPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are hatched. However the destruction of labour is now a national need to enable the end of Corbyn and his cohort and provide the opportunity for a new party to rise from the ashes and in time start to provide a sensible opposition

I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understand their anger but they only have themselves to blame

I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority

HYUFD and Big G

Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.

I thought the numbers were such that Corbyn would have won even without the influx of new members?

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

How did your canvassing go today, if you don't mind me asking ?

And you're not allowed to say 'Good responses on the doorstep'!

It is really all about who gets their vote out for the council elections now, you are not going to get many to change their minds, it is about the final delivery of pledge letters to your core vote, possibles and undecideds and then knocking them up on polling day itself and ensuring they turn out

I'm disappointed in my area - only 1 day left for 2 of the parties to drop off their first leaflets. It's an urban division, even if the candidate has to do it alone by themselves I should get at least one.

There have been at least 2 or 3 leaflets delivered by both sides here but it is the most marginal ward in Epping Forest, safer wards I expect tend to get ignored beyond the election address by the main contendors

42 hatricks and we sold him for only £80m? We was robbed.

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

How did your canvassing go today, if you don't mind me asking ?

And you're not allowed to say 'Good responses on the doorstep'!

It is really all about who gets their vote out for the council elections now, you are not going to get many to change their minds, it is about the final delivery of pledge letters to your core vote, possibles and undecideds and then knocking them up on polling day itself and ensuring they turn out

I'm disappointed in my area - only 1 day left for 2 of the parties to drop off their first leaflets. It's an urban division, even if the candidate has to do it alone by themselves I should get at least one.

I've had one from Labour but it was an 'insert candidate name here' job

From the rest, nothing.

So I've no idea how to vote.

Good night all.

In the absence of any attempt from local parties, I'd say go for an Indy if they are not insane, or otherwise its reasonable to judge entirely on the basis of the national parties.

Freggles said:

Just seen a Labour attack ad on May on Facebook, straight out of the thread header's approach, going after the U turns.

Makes sense. Some u-turns are good and necessary, others not so, and it's a potential weak spot.

O/T

It's back to 1980 on BBC2 / Jools Holland with Blondie performing Call Me.

'@iainmartin1: Brussels increases Brexit divorce demand to 100bn euros, reports FT.'


Great way of uniting the country behind a diamond Brexit, no need to waste anymore time attempting to negotiate with these idiots,the next two years can be spent on setting up non EU trade deals & the Singapore of Europe.

Hopefully May will deduct the value of the UK's EU assets from the last two years of budget contributions.

Sean - the Abbott maths would be compelling, did they matter. The truth is Labour are so utterly bereft of any electability that Diane could confuse a pledge on free school lunches with a commitment to land a woman on Venus by 2021, and it would make sod all difference.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

How did your canvassing go today, if you don't mind me asking ?

And you're not allowed to say 'Good responses on the doorstep'!

It is really all about who gets their vote out for the council elections now, you are not going to get many to change their minds, it is about the final delivery of pledge letters to your core vote, possibles and undecideds and then knocking them up on polling day itself and ensuring they turn out

I'm disappointed in my area - only 1 day left for 2 of the parties to drop off their first leaflets. It's an urban division, even if the candidate has to do it alone by themselves I should get at least one.

There have been at least 2 or 3 leaflets delivered by both sides here but it is the most marginal ward in Epping Forest, safer wards I expect tend to get ignored beyond the election address by the main contendors

Such is life - even at local level I'm cursed to be in a safe seat! (although it was Indy last time, theoretically there should be no better time to try to go for it, but it looks like it has been all but conceded to the party that originally held it)

I do agree though you should make an effort to get at least one leaflet out even if you are a paper candidate in a hopeless seat

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?

I like dandelion and burdock, but where are you getting it at more than £19 a bottle?

Sorry I meant 19p a litre stuff you find in corner shops...I just done a what is now called a Diane Abbott...

Shame. I was hoping there was some Blue Mountain of Dandelion and Burdock out there, waiting for me to try...

Fentimans ain't exactly cheap.

Any good? (I normally end up with M&S stuff when impulse buy any).

For the old classic drinks like Dandelion and Burdock, Rose Lemonade and Ginger Beer, they are IMO very good. Their USP is they are made the old fashioned way by "brewing them" for 7 days.

SeanT said:

Cyan said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

If this is true - if! - it's more evidence that the EU have no intention of negotiating and intend to abandon talks very quickly.

You cannot ask for a figure based on a long-agreed budget (which would be a reasonable position) and then suddenly say an extra 67% was there and had only just been noticed. You look like either a crook or a moron (or both).

In fact, they are looking more and more like the dubious client out for a fast buck who's been got at by a no-win, no fee shark, who demands the highest figure and doesn't care when the judge actually starts laughing.

I wonder which sharks lawyers, accountants and other agents are planning to make the most money out of the Brexit talks, whether on one side or the other.

Right now, if Theresa May suggested a brisk, subtle war with our European friends, I would concur. Some delicate bombing of Dusseldorf and Lyon, perhaps. Just fucking tell them we won't roll over.

I love Europe. I am a European. But the behaviour of EU leaders is turning me into a warmonger. They REALLY need to stop.

Frankly, the stuff coming out of the EU right now is so ludicrous it has ceased to even get me angry. It just makes me laugh.

Like Robert Smithson said, once their demands exceed a certain point (GBP35bn, May cannot negotiate for the UK, EU law must remain supreme over UK law), any further demands are immaterial. It will just be a big fat "Non! Nein! No! and Nyet!" (the last just for good measure).

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

I suspect beyond a certain point - say about €35bn - it becomes somewhat irrelevant, because Mrs May will simply say "no".

Crashing out to WTO (which disallows discriminatory tariffs) would obviously not be very good for the UK economy. But nor would it be good for the EU economy.

It is the non-tariff barriers that really kill trade.

Hard Brexit is nailed on. Juncker is right. May and the Brexiteers are in another galaxy to the EU.

Non tariff barriers consist mainly of three things:

1. The standards to which things are made.

2. The certification of 1.

3. How much inspection of 1 and 2 goes on at customs.

In principle they have to accept we can inspect and certify as we do to them, and so 3 should be just a formality. We also already manufacture to 1. So really it is a question of what games they wish to play.

bobajobPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are hatched. However the destruction of labour is now a national need to enable the end of Corbyn and his cohort and provide the opportunity for a new party to rise from the ashes and in time start to provide a sensible opposition

I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understand their anger but they only have themselves to blame

I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority

HYUFD and Big G

Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.

I accept that but Miliband's silly £3 offer compounded by the rush to nominate Corbyn from those who should have known better is the root cause. I do accept traditional supporters were left helpless as the wave of £3 supporters overwhelmed them. The only way for this to resolve itself is for Corbyn to go down to a very heavy defeat.

I really do feel for you and those good sensible labour members

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I weird liking Dandelion and Burdock (the posh stuff, not the £19 a litre gut rot) with my fish and chips?

I like dandelion and burdock, but where are you getting it at more than £19 a bottle?

Sorry I meant 19p a litre stuff you find in corner shops...I just done a what is now called a Diane Abbott...

Shame. I was hoping there was some Blue Mountain of Dandelion and Burdock out there, waiting for me to try...

Fentimans ain't exactly cheap.

Any good? (I normally end up with M&S stuff when impulse buy any).

For the old classic drinks like Dandelion and Burdock, Rose Lemonade and Ginger Beer, they are IMO very good. Their USP is they are made the old fashioned way by "brewing them" for 7 days.

Hexham's finest.
You can buy them everywhere in Newcastle and surrounding area.

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wednesday's TIMES: 'You can't lead Brexit talks, EU tells May" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859517896820744193/photo/1

They are clearly on a briefing war footing. I suspect that will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

Tykejohnno said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MSmithsonPB: Why's TMay been campaigning in N Cornwall with an 8k CON majority over LDs?

Perhaps you could explain to Mike that the Conservatives have all the seats in Cornwall - so any visit by May will be in Conservative seats with hefty majorities.

Although I thought the visit focused on St Ives constituency ?

Mike post like he's worried ;-)

I think its fair to say that the election isn't proceeding as the LibDems hoped it would be.

I wonder if OGH is going to vote swap again - it would give us a clue as to which constituency the LibDems are panicking about.

I am modestly optimistic. I never expected a quick road back. Some council gains this weekend will put a spring in the step of our troops.

The UKIP to Con swing is going to be tough to overcome, but I expect plenty of good second places across the country and a voteshare in the low teens.

That's fair enough - you've never ramped the LibDem chances.

The 'twenty nailed on LibDem gains' posters have disappeared though.

And I can't imagine Farron and the boys were expecting the LibDems to have gone backwards in the polls. For that matter I wasn't expecting the LibDems to have gone backwards in the polls.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are hatched. However the destruction of labour is now a national need to enable the end of Corbyn and his cohort and provide the opportunity for a new party to rise from the ashes and in time start to provide a sensible opposition

I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understand their anger but they only have themselves to blame

I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority

HYUFD and Big G

Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.

I accept that but Miliband's silly £3 offer compounded by the rush to nominate Corbyn from those who should have known better is the root cause. I do accept traditional supporters were left helpless as the wave of £3 supporters overwhelmed them. The only way for this to resolve itself is for Corbyn to go down to a very heavy defeat.

I really do feel for you and those good sensible labour members

As I recall, Corbyn won the 3 quidders, but also won the longstanding members and trade unions, albeit by smaller margins.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A Conservative parliamentary candidate has attracted derision after suggesting that voters in his constituency cannot consider themselves working class if they drink Costa coffee.

Anthony Calvert, who was confirmed as the Tory candidate for Wakefield at the general election last week, recounted a hostile encounter with a voter at the town's train station.

"Man recognises me at Wakefield Westgate. 'These f*ckin Tories, always looking to trample on t'working class, like me'. Man walks into Costa," he tweeted.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anthony-calvert-wakefield-tory-candidate-criticises-voter-for-drinking-coffee-a7714336.html

Well that bloke's not going to qualify for a Monty Python Yorkshireman sketch.

How many seats did that BBC News @ 10 add to the May majority, the juxtaposition of TM standing up to Juncker and Abbot being unable to count was brutal.

BenedictWhite said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@AllieHBNews: Wed FT: "EU raises UK Brexit bill to €100bn as Paris and Berlin harden stance" #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/859508270469443584/photo/1

I suspect beyond a certain point - say about €35bn - it becomes somewhat irrelevant, because Mrs May will simply say "no".

Crashing out to WTO (which disallows discriminatory tariffs) would obviously not be very good for the UK economy. But nor would it be good for the EU economy.

It is the non-tariff barriers that really kill trade.

Hard Brexit is nailed on. Juncker is right. May and the Brexiteers are in another galaxy to the EU.

Non tariff barriers consist mainly of three things:

1. The standards to which things are made.

2. The certification of 1.

3. How much inspection of 1 and 2 goes on at customs.

In principle they have to accept we can inspect and certify as we do to them, and so 3 should be just a formality. We also already manufacture to 1. So really it is a question of what games they wish to play.

It is services where NTB's come into their own.

Scott_P said:

So when Tezza "negotiates" the bill from 100bn back down to 60, the Brexiteers will hail that as a triumph, right?

No. If they offer a magnificent trade deal including passporting for between £10 and £20 billion, that would be fine. Otherwise no.

Hello everyone. Just back from a wonderful weekend in Bologna, which is a fantastic city. Full of great restaurants and shops, beautiful architecture and also not crowded with tourists, unlike Florence...

Anyway, nice to see Brexit still the main topic of conversation. Just a few thoughts on my own personal experience of political bets and what I think it means for good political bets on June 8th. And also a few thoughts on Brexit

The easiest way in the UK and the US to win on political bets over the past few ways has been to look at the obvious and bet accordingly. At the 2015 GE, it was clear ED M was seen as unsuitable by many; thus the country would not risk an Ed M Govt which is why they gave the Tories the majority. With Brexit, it was clear many WWC felt this was the last chance to get anyone to listen to them which is why they voted. With Trump, why would Clinton win when most Americans, by a large majority, said their country was heading in the wrong direction and HRC was continuity personified? For full disclosure, I bet big on the last two at 6/1 on the day and kick myselff still over 2015.

What does that mean for June 8th:

(1) TM will win by a landslide so bet accordingly - over 100+ majority and over 400 seats. You can see in the numbers that she smashes JC on who is the best PM. In any normal circumstance, that would mean a big majority but, when everyone can see we will face tough negotiations with the EU, leadership competence is even more important.
(2) As (I think) @daodao said, bet in constituencies that were big Leave areas and outside the big cities. Ignore the idea that "it could never happen there" The one caveat is areas with a large Muslim population are less attractive as Conservative wins as I think they will stick with Labour. So, e.g., around Manchester, I would rather bet on places like Oldham East, Stalybridge and Hyde, even Wigan and Leigh than Oldham West, Rochdale or Bolton SE.
(3) Bet the SNP on losing many seats and the Conservative doing very well and into double digits. The SNP had three great advantages in 2015: concentration of nationalists and anti-Labour votes together, a divided opposition and the surprise factor. The last two have disappeared and there may be some weariness on the first. Scottish politics is consolidating around pro or anti-independence. So bet on seats where the SNP did not have a majority of votes for Unionist parties to win.

AndyJS said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

I am excited to an extent (have just come back from canvassing a council seat the Tories are trying to take off the LDs), the Tories have not had a 100+majority since 1987, 30 years ago which I was too young to remember, Labour had one in 2001 just 16 years ago which I remember well but for the wrong reasons, canvassing in Leamington as a student and watching the Labour MP increase his majority

I remember the 87 election. I won a pint off my brother for forcasting the size of the majority, my first political bet.

I also remember how that majority led to policy errors that brought major civil disobedience to the streets, self destructive infighting and the fragging of their commander by the Tory troops. Now that was popcorn time!

After hubris comes nemesis.

A lot of that is true, especially imposing the poll tax in Scotland before the rest of the country, although on the other hand the Tory share only went down by 0.5% at the 1992 election and they got more votes than anyone's ever got before or since.

The thing which did for the SCONs in 1987 was the Scottish rates revaluation of 1986.

It was to avoid an overdue rates revaluation in England and Wales that the poll tax was introduced.

The poll tax wasn't introduced in Scotland until 1989/90.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Charge

Steve

You are describing the errors of Labour Party members, not those of Labour supporters.

Oh, on Brexit.

For those who think a big TM majority will mean she can face down the Hardliners on Brexit, think about this. Most of the new voters to the Conservatives will have come from UKIP and many of those will have been ex-Labour originally. TM will know that her big majority rests on keeping their support. So will the MPs who have won those seats. So why the hell is she going to even think about disappointing those people and face the risk that they return back to UKIP?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bobajobPB said:

Quick question for the PB Tories. Are they enjoying this election? To me, it is like 2001 in reverse, and 2001 was the dullest election of modern times.

I am fucking BORED. Will someone do something interesting? Labour have the potential to stage a hilarious rebellion against the quarterwits who are leading the party towards oblivion, but so far NOTHING. If Diane's maths, speculation about Emily being leader, and Cruella gags about May are all we have, I think we can safely conclude that this election is SHITE.

To give an honest answer I could not say I am enjoying it and I do not count chickens before they are hatched. However the destruction of labour is now a national need to enable the end of Corbyn and his cohort and provide the opportunity for a new party to rise from the ashes and in time start to provide a sensible opposition

I genuinely feel sorry for dedicated labour supporters and understand their anger but they only have themselves to blame

I certainly do not feel triumphant though I will be more than pleased if Theresa May is returned with a good working majority

HYUFD and Big G

Thanks for your answers. G - why do Labour supporters have themselves to blame? Most traditional Labour supporters are NOT responsible for Corbyn.

I accept that but Miliband's silly £3 offer compounded by the rush to nominate Corbyn from those who should have known better is the root cause. I do accept traditional supporters were left helpless as the wave of £3 supporters overwhelmed them. The only way for this to resolve itself is for Corbyn to go down to a very heavy defeat.

I really do feel for you and those good sensible labour members

I actually agree with you. I think a 100 seat Tory majority may be necessary to cleanse the party of the quarterwits who have taken it over.