politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much

kjohnw said:

Diane Abbott car crash now main story on Sky News website LOL

Scrapheap_as_was said:

kjohnw said:

Diane Abbott car crash now main story on Sky News website LOL

It's quite a thing of exquisite beauty....

She's going on Daily Politics to turn it around so that'll be fine soon.

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

She first said that 10,000 cops would cost £300,000, when this was pointed out as being absurd, she said they would cost £80 million; when Ferrari pointed out that this meant the cops would be on £8000 a year, she then said they were going to recruit 25,000 officers, not 10,000.

When again she was pressed on the fact these 10,000 new officers - or 25,000 new officers -
were only going to be paid £8000 a year at most, on her figures, she suggested that Labour intended to recruit 250,000 new officers.

When this new figure was questioned, a quarter of a million new policemen and women, she said in actual fact Labour intended to recruit 2000 new officers, and also 250, making 2250.

When asked why she'd said they intended to recruit 250,000 new officers, she then claimed that she'd never said this, despite just saying it on live radio.

At this point the interview concluded, with a painful rustling of papers, as Abbott was audibly handed the "right" figures.

But you have to listen to it, to get the full majesty of excruciating pauses and evasions. It is superb.

Most striking is her clear innumeracy.

I don't expect politicians to be fantastic at maths, but the inability to comprehend even orders of magnitude is surely disqualificatory for senior executive positions ?

I was incredibly impressed by Ferrari doing his sums on the fly - obviously I can divide 80m by 10,000, but I have to write the numbers down and cross off the 0s.

If you watch the video, you can see him quietly doing sums on paper, as he lets her waffle on, digging herself deeper.

Expert interviewing.

Can Newnham College, Cambridge explain how Abbott managed to gain entry, let alone graduate.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

kjohnw said:

Diane Abbott car crash now main story on Sky News website LOL

It's quite a thing of exquisite beauty....

She's going on Daily Politics to turn it around so that'll be fine soon.

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Good morning pop pickers

Another weekend of canvassing and, although it should be bl**dy obvious, it is increasingly hitting me how fundamentally our society is about to change with Brexit (and I a hitherto remainer who expected challenges).


Naively on my part, it didn't really sink in, all this debate about "EU Nationals" what it meant on an individual level until all these conversations.

I felt and feel embarrassed.

No you

You are right to be embarrassed but not for the reasons you claim.

You are either an idiot (can't rule it out), or have never canvassed (a liability to whichever party you express loyalty to, if any, so no surprise there either).

The process includes asking people on the doorstep or on the telephone what they think are the key issues in the forthcoming election. Hence they tend to tell you unprovoked.

The only "steer" is the fact that I say I am from the Conservative Party.

I've encouest vote in British history.

But perhaps these alienated British people, in poorer areas, matter less to you than middle class Spanish surgeons and affluent French bankers.

Nevertheless if younger EU nationals feel unwelcome and progressively less interested in studying, working or staying here, and the steady trickle of relocations of more senior positions from the Uk to Eu continues, on top of the flow of white middle-aged people moving out of Outer London that's been apparent now for some years, we can be reasonably confident in calling a top in the London property market. And that's before considering the impact of buy-to-let becoming less attractive and possible restrictions on overseas buyers.

I agree, which is why I proposed a Young Europeans Visa: two year visas for 18-30 year old Europeans to do whatever they like in the UK, whatever job they want. But no benefits. If, at the end of the two years, they get a higher tier job, or start a business that does well, they get to stay if they want. Hopefully the EU would reciprocate.

We must be welcoming and open. The Tories do understand this.

SeanT said:

Scott seems to be labouring under the illusion that the UK government is going to go round the houses of Ealing, ripping away EU passports from weeping Dutchwomen, forcing them to stay in the UK forever.

Sandpit said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

kjohnw said:

Diane Abbott car crash now main story on Sky News website LOL

It's quite a thing of exquisite beauty....

She's going on Daily Politics to turn it around so that'll be fine soon.

This should be fun, but Diane will be absolutely fine against Andrew Neil - he never does his research and never has his figures to hand when soft-soaping politicians...

LOL! Gets popcorn for Diane Abbot in "Car Crash 2 - Crash Harder".

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

Hearty Brexit celebrations in Hartlipool

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3443568/ukip-fight-hartlepool-paul-nuttall-campaign/

That incident was dreadful and if one outcome of this election is the end of UKIP that would be a reason to celebrate

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

At £300k /year, it's a bargain!!

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

British ex-pats have nothing to fear, the Telegraph told us.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11698875/Emigration-Why-British-expats-have-nothing-to-fear-from-Brexit.html

25 Jun

I cans living in the EU, of course.

Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?

Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?

Perhaps we'll know more at noon:

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/859333970227548160

The UK becoming a Thin the EU27 must be removed.

"No cherry picking"

It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights.

It is cherry picking.

What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?

When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.

Both the UK and the EU have made absolutely clear that the number one priority is to sort out the position of UK and EU citizens.

Which the U't get the blame'......

Trying to a judgement on its reasonableness.

Oh FF

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/

If we are happy to do what the EU wants surely we should just confirm that EU citizens currently residing in the UK will keep what they have now: full equality of treatment with UK citizens, outside of certain very limited and defined areas. Both sides have made clear this is a first priority issue, so the UK government would calm a lot of nerves and shut a lot of people up by demonstrating clearly this is all about the EU playing silly buggers.

But the EU wants MORE than that. They want a parallel legal system WITHIN the UK, they want future ECJ decisions to apply to EU citizens inside the UK, which we must enforce. It is palpably absurd.

SeanT said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Misquoting again Scott. I was referring to the views of the EU nationals on their prospects in the UK, not Brexit overall.

But that is also nonsense.

Right now they have free movement, and in future they won't.

Not even you can describe that as "no change", surely?

The expectation, which I think is entirely probable, is that those already settled here will continue to have free movement - unless of course you are expecting the EU to say they are not allowed to go home once in a while. I mean I know the EU are making a lot of threats but even they wouldn't go that far would they?

Scott seems to be labouring under the illusion that the UK government is going to go round the houses of Ealing, ripping away EU passports from weeping Dutchwomen, forcing them to stay in the UK forever.

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

Oh dear...



http://m.cornwalllive.com/prime-minister-theresa-may-visits-cornwall-ahead-of-general-election/story-30306323-detail/story.html

And another. Do you ever get the feeling you are being spoon-fed?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Why couldn't Mrs May find a job for Dominic Raab?

RochdalePioneers said:

David_Evershed said:

kjohnw said:

Diane Abbott car crash now main story on Sky News website LOL

Diane Abbott has learned from Trump.

Get your agenda item top of the news by giving them a story to run.

The plebs will not understand the detail but take away a general impression that Diane Abbott wants more police.

She has got her message over to the people who might vote Labour.

Genius - like Trump.

The one takeaway from the Abbott announcement today (the Today one not LBC...) was that 10k more police is the equivalent of one more officer per council ward. Where I live the police cuts and resulting crime/ASB issue has been high profile. Labour will double the current police resource (locally vs current) is massive

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

Fenman said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scott_P said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Misquoting again Scott. I was referring to the views of the EU nationals on their prospects in the UK, not Brexit overall.

But that is also nonsense.

Right now they have free movement, and in future they won't.

Not even you can describe that as "no change", surely?

The expectation, which I think is entirely probable, is that those already settled here will continue to have free movement - unless of course you are expecting the EU to say they are not allowed to go home once in a while. I mean I know the EU are making a lot of threats but even they wouldn't go that far would they?

Scott seems to be labouring under the illusion that the UK government is going to go round the houses of Ealing, ripping away EU passports from weeping Dutchwomen, forcing them to stay in the UK forever.

But there needs to be considerable clarification. If they go back to their country of origin, say for family reasons, for how long are they entitled to come back? What happens to their health care? Tribunals? The lawyers must be rubbing their hands together!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

Barnesian said:

I think Theresa May and Gordon Brown have similar "qualities". Control freakery, nervous tics, view any opposition as sabotage, - all based on the insecurity of knowing that they are not up to the job of PM and hoping that not many notice.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Labour have selected the candidate who will lose the deposit in Westmorland & Lonsdale

It's a 18 year old local boy. He's overjoyed to have been selected

AndyJS said:

Local elections — Labour defence list:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

She popped up in Ormskirk yesterday I think. My brother saw her in the flesh, and like any other person, was massively underwhelmed and he's a diehard Tory.

I think she'd probably make a very good manager of a tea shop in York...but she has seriously overreached. There is a small part of me that feels sorry for her.

The likes of Theresa May and Angela Leadsome.....the epitome of parochial, little minded, Tory women. They'd be best left to arrange fetes and that is it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

@ChristianJMay: Editorial in Osborne's first @standardnews - May's "election campaign amounts to no more than a slogan."

I see George is nicking my lines.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

She popped up in Ormskirk yesterday I think. My brother saw her in the flesh, and like any other person, was massively underwhelmed and he's a diehard Tory.

I think she'd probably make a very good manager of a tea shop in York...but she has seriously overreached. There is a small part of me that feels sorry for her.

The likes of Theresa May and Angela Leadsome.....the epitome of parochial, little minded, Tory women. They'd be best left to arrange fetes and that is it.

that post comes over as dangerously close to "Best leave the proper jobs to men".

SandyRentool said:

Scott_P said:

@ChristianJMay: Editorial in Osborne's first @standardnews - May's "election campaign amounts to no more than a slogan."

I have always had a very high opinion of George Osborne.

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

Oh dear...



http://m.cornwalllive.com/prime-minister-theresa-may-visits-cornwall-ahead-of-general-election/story-30306323-detail/story.html

And another. Do you ever get the feeling you are being spoon-fed?

Please elaborate on your theory.

Well, my guess is you don't assiduously read cornwalllive.com every day of the week, and that you are passing on a link which someone has spammed you with without checking its credibility. The story is now on the BBC but yet again it is sourced from, and only from, cornwalllive.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39758977

Also see that link for D. Abbot digging in a hole.

tyson said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

She popped up in Ormskirk yesterday I think. My brother saw her in the flesh, and like any other person, was massively underwhelmed and he's a diehard Tory.

I think she'd probably make a very good manager of a tea shop in York...but she has seriously overreached. There is a small part of me that feels sorry for her.

The likes of Theresa May and Angela Leadsome.....the epitome of parochial, little minded, Tory women. They'd be best left to arrange fetes and that is it.

that post comes over as dangerously close to "Best leave the proper jobs to men".

The English Tory party does seem to attract these parochial type off women....

To counter my sexism, Ruth in Scotland is quite superb

tyson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Macavity May hid during the referendum, she's finding it hard to hide as PM during a GE campaign.

She popped up in Ormskirk yesterday I think. My brother saw her in the flesh, and like any other person, was massively underwhelmed and he's a diehard Tory.

I think she'd probably make a very good manager of a tea shop in York...but she has seriously overreached. There is a small part of me that feels sorry for her.

The likes of Theresa May and Angela Leadsome.....the epitome of parochial, little minded, Tory women. They'd be best left to arrange fetes and that is it.

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

She first said that 10,000 cops would cost £300,000, when this was pointed out as being absurd, she said they would cost £80 million; when Ferrari pointed out that this meant the cops would be on £8000 a year, she then said they were going to recruit 25,000 officers, not 10,000.

When again she was pressed on the fact these 10,000 new officers - or 25,000 new officers -
were only going to be paid £8000 a year at most, on her figures, she suggested that Labour intended to recruit 250,000 new officers.

When this new figure was questioned, a quarter of a million new policemen and women, she said in actual fact Labour intended to recruit 2000 new officers, and also 250, making 2250.

When asked why she'd said they intended to recruit 250,000 new officers, she then claimed that she'd never said this, despite just saying it on live radio.

At this point the interview concluded, with a painful rustling of papers, as Abbott was audibly handed the "right" figures.

But you have to listen to it, to get the full majesty of excruciating pauses and evasions. It is superb.

Most striking is her clear innumeracy.

I don't expect politicians to be fantastic at maths, but the inability to comprehend even orders of magnitude is surely disqualificatory for senior executive positions ?

Yes, even if you've no idea, and you're making it up on the spot, anyone with an IQ over 90 should be able to make it up better than THAT.

I wonder if she is just actively dim. Like Corbyn. And she is the proposed new Home Secretary, in charge of peace and justice throughout the realm. Meanwhile John McDonnell, our proposed Chancellor, who will hold the keys to the coffers of the kingdom, gives speeches under the hammer and sickle.

It's hard to believe it's happening. It's like Labour are throwing animal droppings in our faces, and expecting us to applaud.

I did wonder that about Abbott - yet she read history at Cambridge so presumably she does have (or did have) some latent intelligence in her head.

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

Oh dear...



http://m.cornwalllive.com/prime-minister-theresa-may-visits-cornwall-ahead-of-general-election/story-30306323-detail/story.html

And another. Do you ever get the feeling you are being spoon-fed?

Please elaborate on your theory.

Well, my guess is you don't assiduously read cornwalllive.com every day of the week, and that you are passing on a link which someone has spammed you with without checking its credibility. The story is now on the BBC but yet again it is sourced from, and only from, cornwalllive.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39758977

Also see that link for D. Abbot digging in a hole.

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

She first said that 10,000 cops would cost £300,000, when this was pointed out as being absurd, she said they would cost £80 million; when Ferrari pointed out that this meant the cops would be on £8000 a year, she then said they were going to recruit 25,000 officers, not 10,000.

When again she was pressed on the fact these 10,000 new officers - or 25,000 new officers -
were only going to be paid £8000 a year at most, on her figures, she suggested that Labour intended to recruit 250,000 new officers.

When this new figure was questioned, a quarter of a million new policemen and women, she said in actual fact Labour intended to recruit 2000 new officers, and also 250, making 2250.

When asked why she'd said they intended to recruit 250,000 new officers, she then claimed that she'd never said this, despite just saying it on live radio.

At this point the interview concluded, with a painful rustling of papers, as Abbott was audibly handed the "right" figures.

But you have to listen to it, to get the full majesty of excruciating pauses and evasions. It is superb.

Most striking is her clear innumeracy.

I don't expect politicians to be fantastic at maths, but the inability to comprehend even orders of magnitude is surely disqualificatory for senior executive positions ?

Yes, even if you've no idea, and you're making it up on the spot, anyone with an IQ over 90 should be able to make it up better than THAT.

I wonder if she is just actively dim. Like Corbyn. And she is the proposed new Home Secretary, in charge of peace and justice throughout the realm. Meanwhile John McDonnell, our proposed Chancellor, who will hold the keys to the coffers of the kingdom, gives speeches under the hammer and sickle.

It's hard to believe it's happening. It's like Labour are throwing animal droppings in our faces, and expecting us to applaud.

I did wonder that about Abbott - yet she read history at Cambridge so presumably she does have (or did have) some latent intelligence in her head.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just when you thought it couldn't get worse for Abbott she crashes and burns on the Daily Politics - doesn't even know corporation tax rates

Scott_P said:

And it's all gone pear-shaped. REAL VOTER KLAXON !!!

@bbclaurak: PM confronted by voter, 'Prime Minister Brexit isn't the only issue' https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/859367775600603139/photo/1

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

She firs

At this point the interview concluded, with a painful rustling of papers, as Abbott was audibly handed the "right" figures.

But you have to listen to it, to get the full majesty of excruciating pauses and evasions. It is superb.

Most striking is her clear innumeracy.

I don't expect politicians to be fantastic at maths, but the inability to comprehend even orders of magnitude is surely disqualificatory for senior executive positions ?

Yes, even if you've no idea, and you're making it up on the spot, anyone with an IQ over 90 should be able to make it up better than THAT.

I wonder if she is just actively dim. Like Corbyn. And she is the proposed new Home Secretary, in charge of peace and justice throughout the realm. Meanwhile John McDonnell, our proposed Chancellor, who will hold the keys to the coffers of the kingdom, gives speeches under the hammer and sickle.

It's hard to believe it's happening. It's like Labour are throwing animal droppings in our faces, and expecting us to applaud.

I did wonder that about Abbott - yet she read history at Cambridge so presumably she does have (or did have) some latent intelligence in her head.

Interesting. I've always presumed she was smart (until that interview) - deluded but smart. She's clever on TV.

In which case she is innumerate, bad under pressure, and terrible at learning a brief.

tyson said:

Not as absurd as voting to leave the UK and left to the vagaries of English nationalism

Barnesian said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't have sound here, but how did the Abbot botch an interview regarding 10k more police ?

Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.

She first said that 10,000 cops would cost £300,000, when this was pointed out as being absurd, she said they would cost £80 million; when Ferrari pointed out that this meant the cops would be on £8000 a year, she then said they were going to recruit 25,000 officers, not 10,000.

When again she was pressed on the fact these 10,000 new officers - or 25,000 new officers -
were only going to be paid £8000 a year at most, on her figures, she suggested that Labour intended to recruit 250,000 new officers.

When this new figure was questioned, a quarter of a million new policemen and women, she said in actual fact Labour intended to recruit 2000 new officers, and also 250, making 2250.

When asked why she'd said they intended to recruit 250,000 new officers, she then claimed that she'd never said this, despite just saying it on live radio.

At this point the interview concluded, with a painful rustling of papers, as Abbott was audibly handed the "right" figures.

But you have to listen to it, to get the full majesty of excruciating pauses and evasions. It is superb.

Most striking is her clear innumeracy.

I don't expect politicians to be fantastic at maths, but the inability to comprehend even orders of magnitude is surely disqualificatory for senior executive positions ?

Yes, even if you've no idea, and you're making it up on the spot, anyone with an IQ over 90 should be able to make it up better than THAT.

I wonder if she is just actively dim. Like Corbyn. And she is the proposed new Home Secretary, in charge of peace and justice throughout the realm. Meanwhile John McDonnell, our proposed Chancellor, who will hold the keys to the coffers of the kingdom, gives speeches under the hammer and sickle.

It's hard to believe it's happening. It's like Labour are throwing animal droppings in our faces, and expecting us to applaud.

I did wonder that about Abbott - yet she read history at Cambridge so presumably she does have (or did have) some latent intelligence in her head.

She may not be able to remember or handle numbers. Many intelligent people have this disability. Of course, as punters, all of us can handle numbers so we are probably not sympathetic to number dyslexics.