"Corbyn and cupcakes: a journey through North London politics
Labour’s leader is sustained by an old north London brand of abstract idealism, dauntless optimism, moral indignation and discomfort with change. It has its charms but their reach is limited."
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Mr @JosiasJessop, just catching up, what an awesome SpaceX video from last night, thanks for posting.
I think that's the first time they've captured the whole first stage flight from the ground, would love to see the size of the lens on the tracking camera that could video something 160km up!
I'd like to know too. An amazing piece of camerawork.
The Falcon Heavy is starting to come together btw (Pictures present of an upright core at McGregor)- And I think they'll get a (Smaller than originally planned) ITS out to Mars by the mid 2030s, SLS will still be a "decade away" at that point.
With SpaceX, you know it'll happen (And be delayed by 5 - 10 years), with NASA those delays and changes are on a whole another timescale. The Apollo - Shuttle gap is now shorter than the Shuttle ->{Next HSF NASA rocket} !
The Falcon 9 Heavy is still six months away from flight.
Musk says he'll give an update about the ITS scheme in a few weeks. Since the massive carbon fibre tank they made went bang (I presume an unplanned failure, as they wouldn't want to destroy it on the second or third test) I think they'll move to a more 'traditional' approach.
Personally, I'd haul a water-rich asteroid towards a lagrange point and use it to create a hydrogen/oxygen fuel farm. Expensive in the long run,, but will save a massive amount of launches in the medium and long term. NASA would also be very interested, as would ULA with their ACES upper stage.
"Corbyn and cupcakes: a journey through North London politics
Labour’s leader is sustained by an old north London brand of abstract idealism, dauntless optimism, moral indignation and discomfort with change. It has its charms but their reach is limited."
The UK is proposing that EU citizens currently living here have less rights than they have now. That is a proposal that will also apply to UK citizens living abroad, of course. It has made an opening proposal on payments, our response is that we will pay zero. It does not take a huge amount of imagination to see that there is room for manoeuvre. Look at the position papers - that's where the real information lies. The rest is positioning.
What rights would they lose? Are those the same rights that are going to be lost be Britons living in the UK, such as the right to vote for an MEP?
I'm unsure which rights they would be losing that ordinary Brits would be keeping? Unless they are arguing that EU citizens should somehow have more rights, which would be absurd.
Third-party nationals do not have an automatic right to free healthcare or to many public services, for example. The basic principle that currently applies to EU citizens in the UK (and to UK citizens in the rEU) is that they get what the locals get, with some agreed exceptions relating to voting rights.
Mr @JosiasJessop, just catching up, what an awesome SpaceX video from last night, thanks for posting.
I think that's the first time they've captured the whole first stage flight from the ground, would love to see the size of the lens on the tracking camera that could video something 160km up!
People have been asking for articles on NASA's tracking cameras. It must be quite a spectacular setup.
I still can't get over the first stage rotating to return to the launch site. I just watch it and think: "the aerodynamic forces'll just break it up."
Except it's above the atmosphere.
Yes, the turning around of the first stage feels like it shouldn't be possible, but we have only Earth-bound perspectives and experiences to draw upon!
This is the best video I've seen of what NASA did with the final few Shuttle launches, using very high speed cameras to monitor the launch from a number of angles. Their long range shots were with a 3,800mm (150 inch) tracking camera, and nowhere near as long as the SpaceX one - I was thinking it must have been 10m or thereabouts!! Pic of the camera itself: https://www.photo.net/discuss/threads/nasa-long-range-ascent-tracking-camera.496933/ 45 minutes of Shuttle Pr0n: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vFwqZ4qAUkE
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK is proposing that EU citizens currently living here have less rights than they have now. That is a proposal that will also apply to UK citizens living abroad, of course. It has made an opening proposal on payments, our response is that we will pay zero. It does not take a huge amount of imagination to see that there is room for manoeuvre. Look at the position papers - that's where the real information lies. The rest is positioning.
What rights would they lose? Are those the same rights that are going to be lost be Britons living in the UK, such as the right to vote for an MEP?
I'm unsure which rights they would be losing that ordinary Brits would be keeping? Unless they are arguing that EU citizens should somehow have more rights, which would be absurd.
Third-party nationals do not have an automatic right to free healthcare or to many public services, for example. The basic principle that currently applies to EU citizens in the UK (and to UK citizens in the rEU) is that they get what the locals get, with some agreed exceptions relating to voting rights.
I thought the only requirement for NHS care was that you were 'ordinarily resident' in the UK?
Labour all over the media AGAIN, full marks to them. Lib Dem performance on Thursday, ratings? Any losses poor gains 1-15 disappointing " 16-30 satisfacroty " 31-50 good " 51-75 very good " 76-99 excellent " 100+ psychological boost: headline catching
The comments on this thread simply serve to show the scale of the Brexit problem. Sharp divide between those who won't have any criticism of the UK and believe the EU are deliberately setting out to be the enemy and those who think the UK is ill-prepared and unrealistic about what can be achieved. We will find out who is right eventually. But in the meantime, the tone of the side who are anti-EU is much more aggressive. Why do you need to be so rude to people who don't agree with you, guys? Is it so that you don't have to think too hard about how to defend your position?
LOl - have you checked some of the posts from remainers.
Of course both sides may be wrong and a (ahem) third way might be found.
Looking at what is coming out of the EU it seems they really have no intention on negotiating a deal.
Not surprised considering the ways they treated member States in past.
As I live in a near one-party state I am going to vote for any independent who is standing, and if not I might vote Lib Dem. They do seem to care about local issues so, which is quite touching.
And there's little risk that Hertfordshire County Council Lib Dems strength will stop Brexit.
Still voting Tory in the GE.
I'll be doing my best to keep the Yellow Peril out of Potters Bar East.
Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Which is nonsense. There's a decent off the shelf deal called the EEA which many Leavers and Remainers both support.
It is May who has decided to turn Brexit into an existential struggle in hopes of putting her name to an optimum negotiated 'special' relationship between Britain and the EU, instead of allowing that relationship to evolve over time.
Yes the decision to reject using ECJ rulings on disputes makes any deal 100x more difficult. It is a very bad decision indeed. The UK is riding for no deal. The impact of no deal could be a large fall in GDP and permanent loss of competitiveness. May does not understand the limits to a deal and is asking for stuff that cannot be given by the EU-27.
The fact that she is paranoid about leaks and is, lets face it not a particularly warm personality is showing her to be a very poor negotiator.
However, I was amused to hear that apparently Dalmatians are going missing in Berkshire though- first good joke about her.
Labour all over the media AGAIN, full marks to them. Lib Dem performance on Thursday, ratings? Any losses poor gains 1-15 disappointing " 16-30 satisfacroty " 31-50 good " 51-75 very good " 76-99 excellent " 100+ psychological boost: headline catching
Didn't Rallings and Thrasher say 100 was par for the LDs?
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
This article could have been written about yesterday's thread on PB (continued this morning). It imagines a speech the PM will eventually give...
The prime minister determined to punish the UK.
Now comes the Churchillian riff. Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.
Stephens is an ardent europhile but at least he's guessed the psychology - which I explained, similarly, yesterday. If the EU is perceived to be bullying or attacking the UK, our reaction won't be Bremorse, or surrender, it will be a big British fuck you.
You also skip the rest of his feature, where he admits that loathing of a deal is probably do-able. But if the EU refuses to yield any ground, they will collapse very quickly. We can then prepare for the tough times ahead.
That "we", of course, is well-off, right-wing Brexiteers, shielded from the affects of a cliff-edge departure, girding their inner Cod-Churchills. We will fight them on the beaches, we will never surrender, they will say to millions of people facing up to the prospect of major job losses, further cuts to public services and higher taxes. It will be our finest hour - inflicting untold harm on ourselves for perfectly avoidable reasons. But the wealthy right wing Brexiteers will be fine, so it will all be OK. Boris will get to say very rude and hilarious things about foreigners, the right wing press can pretend it's WW2. And then what?
But what about wealthy Remainers who loathe this Churchillian nonsense? Many now fear that this wont just be the upheaval of all upheavals but it will be a serious disaster both economically and socially. In my trade the signs are already obvious.
The fact that the poorest will have less insulation in the coming downturn is always the way. But by the same token it's always the richest who build the barricades and I still have hope that when the vomit really hits the fan parliament realises that it has the power to override the referendum and it does just that.
A friend of mine in your business (except he's a Hollywood film director not a retired tampon TV advertiser) has decided to make his next movie in London, this summer. He was going to do it in LA or NYC but the fall in sterling made London too attractive.
For anyone who deals in dollars and Euros the last year has been spectacular. We hit full year forecast in March, two months ahead of schedule.
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Which is nonsense. There's a decent off the shelf deal called the EEA which many Leavers and Remainers both support.
It is May who has decided to turn Brexit into an existential struggle in hopes of putting her name to an optimum negotiated 'special' relationship between Britain and the EU, instead of allowing that relationship to evolve over time.
Yes the decision to reject using ECJ rulings on disputes makes any deal 100x more difficult. It is a very bad decision indeed. The UK is riding for no deal. The impact of no deal could be a large fall in GDP and permanent loss of competitiveness. May does not understand the limits to a deal and is asking for stuff that cannot be given by the EU-27.
The fact that she is paranoid about leaks and is, lets face it not a particularly warm personality is showing her to be a very poor negotiator.
However, I was amused to hear that apparently Dalmatians are going missing in Berkshire though- first good joke about her.
Not at all. We could take the EEA deal as WIlliam suggests and still not be subject to ECJ rulings. The two important points are that we are outside the Customs Union and not subject to ECJ rulings. EEA membership through EFTA satisfies both of those conditions.
The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
I can only answer for myself, but so far I do not feel reassured that she knows what she is about. I feel that, based on reports about Spads and the like deserting No 10, some of her rather apparently abrupt decisions and now this EU meeting fiasco, there must be some truth in the claim that she is not all that adept at managing people and politics is all about people and compromise.
What I am certain of is that she is the only game in town. Corbyn is protester, not a politician and the rest of the parties look like a disorganised, political hotch-potch.
It reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in her early days as PM - you could love her or loathe her but there were no other options for the first few years.
I appreciate your honest answer
Re this impacting on Mrs May's popularity.
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
"No cherry picking"
It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights. However, clearly you are prepared to see UK citizens in the EU27 sold down the river, as is the government. What's more, by taking rights away from EU citizens here, we increase the chances that those with a choice - ie, the most productive and the most coveted - will head off to somewhere else. I am sure it makes sense to someone.
Stephens is an ardent europhile but at least he's guessed the psychology - which I explained, similarly, yesterday. If the EU is perceived to be bullying or attacking the UK, our reaction won't be Bremorse, or surrender, it will be a big British fuck you.
That "we", of course, is well-off, right-wing Brexiteers, shielded from the affects of a cliff-edge departure, girding their inner Cod-Churchills. We will fight them on the beaches, we will never surrender, they will say to millions of people facing up to the prospect of major job losses, further cuts to public services and higher taxes. It will be our finest hour - inflicting untold harm on ourselves for perfectly avoidable reasons. But the wealthy right wing Brexiteers will be fine, so it will all be OK. Boris will get to say very rude and hilarious things about foreigners, the right wing press can pretend it's WW2. And then what?
But what about wealthy Remainers who loathe this Churchillian nonsense? Many now fear that this wont just be the upheaval of all upheavals but it will be a serious disaster both economically and socially. In my trade the signs are already obvious.
The fact that the poorest will have less insulation in the coming downturn is always the way. But by the same token it's always the richest who build the barricades and I still have hope that when the vomit really hits the fan parliament realises that it has the power to override the referendum and it does just that.
A friend of mine in your business (except he's a Hollywood film director not a retired tampon TV advertiser) has decided to make his next movie in London, this summer. He was going to do it in LA or NYC but the fall in sterling made London too attractive.
There seems to be a curious lack of forecasting for the UK economy post-Brexit going on. Perhaps the economists are all stung after the failure of their models in recent years. Reading between the lines, always dangerous, it does seem as if the consensus would be that the Treasury's 6% lower GDP in 2030 was on the pessimistic side. That doesn't make me a Brexiter, more a Regrets'iter but you know it might not actually be the end of the world.
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
"No cherry picking"
It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights.
It is cherry picking.
What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?
When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.
This article could have been written about yesterday's thread on PB (continued this morning). It imagines a speech the PM will eventually give...
The prime minister determined to punish the UK.
Now comes the Churchillian riff. Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.
Stephens is an ardent europhile but at least he's guessed the psychology - which I explained, similarly, yesterday. If the EU is perceived to be bullying or attacking the UK, our reaction won't be Bremorse, or surrender, it will be a big British fuck you.
You also skip the rest of his feature, where he admits that loathing of a deal is probably do-able. But if the EU refuses to yield any ground, they will collapse very quickly. We can then prepare for the tough times ahead.
That "we", of course, is well-off, right-wing Brexiteers, shielded from the affects of a cliff-edge departure, girding their inner Cod-Churchills. We will fight them on the beaches, we will never surrender, they will say to millions of people facing up to the prospect of major job losses, further cuts to public services and higher taxes. It will be our finest hour - inflicting untold harm on ourselves for perfectly avoidable reasons. But the wealthy right wing Brexiteers will be fine, so it will all be OK. Boris will get to say very rude and hilarious things about foreigners, the right wing press can pretend it's WW2. And then what?
But what about wealthy Remainers who loathe this Churchillian nonsense? Many now fear that this wont just be the upheaval of all upheavals but it will be a serious disaster both economically and socially. In my trade the signs are already obvious.
The fact that the poorest will have less insulation in the coming downturn is always the way. But by the same token it's always the richest who build the barricades and I still have hope that when the vomit really hits the fan parliament realises that it has the power to override the referendum and it does just that.
A friend of mine in your business (except he's a Hollywood film director not a retired tampon TV advertiser) has decided to make his next movie in London, this summer. He was going to do it in LA or NYC but the fall in sterling made London too attractive.
That usually means their work in Hollywood's dried up. I know several some successful some less so. If it's not happening for them they move. England's their only alternative
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The thing is that the more the EU make idiotic demands or set pre conditions and do their own cherry picking, the far easier it becomes to pin the blame on them for a hard Brexit. Already people know that this is not going to be an easy or straightforward process. WatO on Radio 4 yesterday made it clear that people are aware of this. So the expectation of problems is already there and accepted. The EU playing silly buggers before the negotiations have even started will not help them in the process as it simply confirms what people already thought about them (remember even amongst Remain voters there is a huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
The government spin surrounding Theresa's dinner engagement with Junker has been abject. Theresa's been made to look like some hapless supplicant tossed by events, rather than the steely enforcer of legend. They should take a leaf out of Gordon Brown's book: during the banking crisis it was said that the other EU leaders looked to Gordon when a heady mixture of envy and awe. It doesn't have to be true, just possible.
Good question. She is a bit popular for a Tory - well, compared to recent ones, anyway.....
So you're saying she'll increase the number of Tory MPs more than Dave did ?
If she gains even one more she'll be more popular, surely? *innocent face*
Logic fail. It's all about relative increase.
Taking the Tories from 198 to 331 is more impressive than going from 331 to 332.
Why. If you were lucky enough to follow some useless leaders then there might be plenty of room for improvement. There's no easy answer to this but your lack of insight into Camborne's flaws does get rather tiring.
I think the "Juncker leak" episode will have ZERO impact on the result in five weeks time, in spite of all the words expended on the subject in this thread.
I think the impact of the CPS decision is unpredictable. It could have a significant impact, or none at all - who knows.
However there are two features which I believe WILL have a large impact:
1) The wide belief that a large Conservative majority is inevitable - a coronation.
2) The high exposure of TMay (despite her dodging a debate and avoiding contact with the public) which will not be to her advantage. She is insecure, retreating into robotic sound bites, and is beginning to be ridiculed.. She doesn't have the depth or confidence of a Merkel or a Thatcher and it shows. It might not matter if these were normal times, but she has an enormous task ahead.
I think the consequence will be a small suppression of the Tory vote, a switch back to Labour of some ex-Labour voters and a willingness by some to vote for LibDems or Green knowing it isn't going to change the fact that we are headed for a Tory Government with a large majority.
George Osborne also increased taxes on the wealthy.
It's things like raising NI on the self-employed, or raising the higher rate of income tax above 40p/freezing the bands that would cause trouble for her, not the 1%.
The UK is proposing that EU citizens currently living here have less rights than they have now. That is a proposal that will also apply to UK citizens living abroad, of course. It has made an opening proposal on payments, our response is that we will pay zero. It does not take a huge amount of imagination to see that there is room for manoeuvre. Look at the position papers - that's where the real information lies. The rest is positioning.
What rights would they lose? Are those the same rights that are going to be lost be Britons living in the UK, such as the right to vote for an MEP?
Good question. She is a bit popular for a Tory - well, compared to recent ones, anyway.....
So you're saying she'll increase the number of Tory MPs more than Dave did ?
If she gains even one more she'll be more popular, surely? *innocent face*
Logic fail. It's all about relative increase.
Taking the Tories from 198 to 331 is more impressive than going from 331 to 332.
Logic fail by you as well. Keeping those 331 MPs and adding an extra 1 does (under the terms you are discussing) make her more popular. Its basic maths.
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The thing is that the more the EU make idiotic demands or set pre conditions and do their own cherry picking, the far easier it becomes to pin the blame on them for a hard Brexit. Already people know that this is not going to be an easy or straightforward process. WatO on Radio 4 yesterday made it clear that people are aware of this. So the expectation of problems is already there and accepted. The EU playing silly buggers before the negotiations have even started will not help them in the process as it simply confirms what people already thought about them (remember even amongst Remain voters there is a huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
The thing that's surprised me on the polling about 'EU negotiate in good faith' vs 'punishment' is how uniform it is across ages, political parties and Remain/Leave voters responses are - unlike the huge polarisations we see on Corbyn or May for example.
I would have expected Leave voters to be more suspicious of EU motives, Remain voters more charitable - but no, their views are virtually the same:
LEAVE/REMAIN Thinking about the forthcoming negootiations with the European Union, what attitude do you think other European countries will end up taking?
They will probably negotiate constructively to find a deal that works for both Britain and the EU : 30 / 33
They will probably obstruct a good deal to punish Britain and discourage other countries from leaving: 52 / 49
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
"No cherry picking"
It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights.
It is cherry picking.
What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?
When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.
We don't know what existing rights UK companies will retain after Brexit. The UK does not seem to have made any proposals around this - or, if it has, it has kept them secret and nothing has yet leaked. Both the UK and the EU have made absolutely clear that the number one priority is to sort out the position of UK and EU citizens.
I would have expected Leave voters to be more suspicious of EU motives, Remain voters more charitable - but no, their views are virtually the same:
That being the case, you shouldn't expect public opinion to swing to Leave just because the EU is handling things as everyone thought they would.
No one has said they will swing to Leave. In fact most people already accept that we are leaving. What it does do is make people more accepting of a hard Brexit being inevitable and more willing to blame the EU for it. That makes May's job much easier.
Coming to a Facebook as near you...Dianne Abbott police policy. As I said yesterday they aren't just bonkers , they are as thick as shit. Actually that might be too kind. Has there ever been a more incapable and moronic opposition.
You can disagree with blair and co but they weren't thick.
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
"No cherry picking"
It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights.
It is cherry picking.
What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?
When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.
We don't know what existing rights UK companies will retain after Brexit. The UK does not seem to have made any proposals around this - or, if it has, it has kept them secret and nothing has yet leaked. Both the UK and the EU have made absolutely clear that the number one priority is to sort out the position of UK and EU citizens.
May is pretty well saying that she’ll tell us what she thinks we ought to know, and no more. It’s all of a piece with describing opposers as saboteurs.
Good question. She is a bit popular for a Tory - well, compared to recent ones, anyway.....
So you're saying she'll increase the number of Tory MPs more than Dave did ?
Who do you think is better at the job of Prime Minister? OA (Con VI) David Cameron : 22 (17) Theresa May : 38 (70)
Pretty clear, I'd say, wouldn't you?
Cameron is only on 17%? That must be a typo or something!
It's a forced comparison - so voters have to choose one or the other. Among Tories Cameron fandom over May is a (small) minority pursuit.
Also look at the question on whether May has followed Cameron's course and whether this is a good or bad thing. Overwhelmingly (63%) Con VI think May has changed course and this is a good thing. Next up at 17% think she's kept to the Cameron course and this is also a good thing. Only tiny numbers of Con voters think its bad that she's stuck to Cameron (4%) or changed from Cameron (2%).
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The thing is that the more the EU make idiotic demands or set pre conditions and do their own cherry picking, the far easier it becomes to pin the blame on them for a hard Brexit. Already people know that this is not going to be an easy or straightforward process. WatO on Radio 4 yesterday made it clear that people are aware of this. So the expectation of problems is already there and accepted. The EU playing silly buggers before the negotiations have even started will not help them in the process as it simply confirms what people already thought about them (remember even amongst Remain voters there is a huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
Yes, it's sad that negotiating a good future arrangement for Britain has largely gone out of the window, and the preoccupation is now about getting the blame shifted on to the EU. But that's politics I guess - if you have no significant achievements to trumpet then you may as well go for the 'Not me Guv' approach.
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
Yes, it's sad that negotiating a good future arrangement for Britain has largely gone out of the window, and the preoccupation is now about getting the blame shifted on to the EU. But that's politics I guess - if you have no significant achievements to trumpet then you may as well go for the 'Not me Guv' approach.
Blaming someone else is a short-term political fix. It is not a sustainable strategy. If we do get the cliff-edge Brexit some on the right have always wanted, what comes next is going to be vital. A lot of well-paid jobs in manufacturing and other sectors depend on European supply chains and sales into the EU. How will these be preserved? How will a country with less access to the single market and fewer other trade deals than Turkey secure inward investment? How will jumping off the precipice affect our ability to borrow? What further cuts to public services will be needed? How many taxes will have to rise? And so on.
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
Yes, it's sad that negotiating a good future arrangement for Britain has largely gone out of the window, and the preoccupation is now about getting the blame shifted on to the EU. But that's politics I guess - if you have no significant achievements to trumpet then you may as well go for the 'Not me Guv' approach.
Blaming someone else is a short-term political fix.
Interestingly, it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently. Nobody at all mentioned this during the referendum. Except the Remain side. Which was accused of fear-mongering.
Hang on, I thought WE wanted to resolve this issue and the EU are dragging it out, whilst wanting to avoid blame.
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
The thing is that the more the EU make idiotic demands or set pre conditions and do their own cherry picking, the far easier it becomes to pin the blame on them for a hard Brexit. Already people know that this is not going to be an easy or straightforward process. WatO on Radio 4 yesterday made it clear that people are aware of this. So the expectation of problems is already there and accepted. The EU playing silly buggers before the negotiations have even started will not help them in the process as it simply confirms what people already thought about them (remember even amongst Remain voters there is a huge groundswell of distrust and dislike of the EU. True believers like Williamglenn are very rare.)
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
Yes, it's sad that negotiating a good future arrangement for Britain has largely gone out of the window, and the preoccupation is now about getting the blame shifted on to the EU. But that's politics I guess - if you have no significant achievements to trumpet then you may as well go for the 'Not me Guv' approach.
That is your perception and needless to say it is rubbish. All that is happened is that the EU has shot itself in the foot. Whether the UK decides to take advantage of that self inflicted wound or not we will have to wait and see. What is sad is that Europhiles like you seek to excuse the EU considering punishment as more important than a deal that helps both sides.
it does seem as if the UK government is prepared to see British citizens in the EU sold down the river. Its proposals on citizens' rights would deny them many of the ones that they enjoy currently.
Link to proposals please?
I cannot link to proposals because the UK government is keeping them secret. I can only link to reports of what the proposals are, as I did below. It seems as if the UK is suggesting that EU citizens be treated as third country nationals post-Brexit. That would imply a significant reduction in their current rights. Ditto for UK nationals living in the EU, of course.
Isn't that simply the logical consequence of the EU insisting that the UK will be a 'Third Country'?
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
The UK becoming a Third Country - which is what Brexit is clearly all about - does not mean that rights currently enjoyed by UK citizens living in the EU27 must be removed.
"No cherry picking"
It's not cherry-picking. It's guaranteeing existing rights.
It is cherry picking.
What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?
When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.
Both the UK and the EU have made absolutely clear that the number one priority is to sort out the position of UK and EU citizens.
Which the UK has been trying to sort out since before Christmas.....blocked by the EU which is 'anxious to make sure it doesn't get the blame'......
Another weekend of canvassing and, although it should be bl**dy obvious, it is increasingly hitting me how fundamentally our society is about to change with Brexit (and I a hitherto remainer who expected challenges).
It's most telling when speaking with either those sympathetic to the plight of, or who actually are EU nationals. There is an ongoing traumatic change in our relationship to foreigners. They are variously bemused, aghast, distraught, amazed. These previous Cons voters now have been booted out of the club and made not welcome. A previously hugely integrated part of our citizenry alienated.
Naively on my part, it didn't really sink in, all this debate about "EU Nationals" what it meant on an individual level until all these conversations.
Mr. Glenn, as I've said (although not for a little while) excepting the customs union, which we must leave, I'm open to a pretty wide spectrum of deals. I wouldn't mind if freedom of movement were replaced by freedom to work (ie guaranteed job offer).
The only new thing I've heard which is unacceptable is the possibility of having EU citizens here governed by EU rather than UK law.
Do you expect/accept a transition agreement which would be governed by the current arrangements during which time the long term future agreement will be negotiated or do you think it's 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019?
Yes - it IS 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019. The EU were the ones who put the two year deadline into the Constitution Lisbon Treaty - not us.
Mr. Glenn, as I've said (although not for a little while) excepting the customs union, which we must leave, I'm open to a pretty wide spectrum of deals. I wouldn't mind if freedom of movement were replaced by freedom to work (ie guaranteed job offer).
The only new thing I've heard which is unacceptable is the possibility of having EU citizens here governed by EU rather than UK law.
Do you expect/accept a transition agreement which would be governed by the current arrangements during which time the long term future agreement will be negotiated or do you think it's 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019?
Yes - it IS 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019. The EU were the ones who put the two year deadline into the Constitution Lisbon Treaty - not us.
Mr. Glenn, as I've said (although not for a little while) excepting the customs union, which we must leave, I'm open to a pretty wide spectrum of deals. I wouldn't mind if freedom of movement were replaced by freedom to work (ie guaranteed job offer).
The only new thing I've heard which is unacceptable is the possibility of having EU citizens here governed by EU rather than UK law.
Do you expect/accept a transition agreement which would be governed by the current arrangements during which time the long term future agreement will be negotiated or do you think it's 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019?
Yes - it IS 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019. The EU were the ones who put the two year deadline into the Constitution Lisbon Treaty - not us.
Yeah thank goodness our democratically elected government didn't sign that puppy.
Comments
"Corbyn and cupcakes: a journey through North London politics
Labour’s leader is sustained by an old north London brand of abstract idealism, dauntless optimism, moral indignation and discomfort with change. It has its charms but their reach is limited."
https://onlondon.co.uk/2017/05/01/corbyn-and-cupcakes-a-journey-through-north-london-politics/
1/200 to win her seat.
This is the best video I've seen of what NASA did with the final few Shuttle launches, using very high speed cameras to monitor the launch from a number of angles. Their long range shots were with a 3,800mm (150 inch) tracking camera, and nowhere near as long as the SpaceX one - I was thinking it must have been 10m or thereabouts!!
Pic of the camera itself: https://www.photo.net/discuss/threads/nasa-long-range-ascent-tracking-camera.496933/
45 minutes of Shuttle Pr0n:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vFwqZ4qAUkE
Are you suggesting the EU 'hasn't thought this through?
Perhaps we'll know more at noon:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/859333970227548160
Lib Dem performance on Thursday, ratings?
Any losses poor
gains 1-15 disappointing
" 16-30 satisfacroty
" 31-50 good
" 51-75 very good
" 76-99 excellent
" 100+ psychological boost: headline catching
Was she any better on BBC1 this am?
Of course both sides may be wrong and a (ahem) third way might be found.
Looking at what is coming out of the EU it seems they really have no intention on negotiating a deal.
Not surprised considering the ways they treated member States in past.
The fact that she is paranoid about leaks and is, lets face it not a particularly warm personality is showing her to be a very poor negotiator.
However, I was amused to hear that apparently Dalmatians are going missing in Berkshire though- first good joke about her.
Sion Simon wins = On course for a modest Tory majority
Sion Simon loses = On course for a 100 plus Tory majority
To be honest you seem more concerned about whether the deal we get impacts on the PM's popularity than whether it is a good deal for the country.
Certainly sections of the populace and their media cheerleaders will go into overdrive along the plucky Blighty takes on the EU line, Dunkirk spirit etc etc. However if we get a bad deal/no deal and our economy is damaged then it is going to matter little to most people who's fault it was.
There will come a time when simply blaming the EU for all our problems is not going to wash - it's going to cause an existential crisis at the Mail & Express. At the moment it's a convenient shield for blaming any ill-effects of Brexit on the EU rather than the Conservative Party and some people will buy it but many will see through and blame Brexit itself.
As BeverleyC says May is the only game in town now - the test of popularity will come when we see how she handles Brexit and what she does with her large majority. I am still hoping for a soft EFTA-type landing but I am beginning to fear the worst.
Theresa May hints at tax hikes for the wealthy
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3456478/theresa-may-hints-at-tax-hikes-for-the-wealthy-in-election-pitch-to-win-over-fed-up-former-labour-voters/
What are the "rich" going to do - vote for Corbyn ;p ?
Sadly she is up against the A team of Abbot and
CostelloCorbynNo wonder she's hiding from the voters if she's planning on soaking us.
I might have to abstain.
What 'existing rights' will British businesses have after we become a Third Country?
When the EU does it, its not cherry picking, when the UK does, it is.
Andy Street 1.52
Bring on the landslide!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051236/market?marketId=1.129071194
That wasn't a car crash, as much as two fully laden trucks heading crashing head on at 100mph!
Mrs May also knocked doors in the safe Labour seats of West Lancashire and Stockport
So May visits safe Labour seats, as does Corbyn (but only if the Majority is 51%...)
David Cameron : 22 (17)
Theresa May : 38 (70)
Pretty clear, I'd say, wouldn't you?
All this actually does is make it easier for May to sell a hard Brexit to the public on the basis she tried her best but the EU were only interested in punishment.
Taking the Tories from 198 to 331 is more impressive than going from 331 to 332.
I think the impact of the CPS decision is unpredictable. It could have a significant impact, or none at all - who knows.
However there are two features which I believe WILL have a large impact:
1) The wide belief that a large Conservative majority is inevitable - a coronation.
2) The high exposure of TMay (despite her dodging a debate and avoiding contact with the public) which will not be to her advantage. She is insecure, retreating into robotic sound bites, and is beginning to be ridiculed.. She doesn't have the depth or confidence of a Merkel or a Thatcher and it shows. It might not matter if these were normal times, but she has an enormous task ahead.
I think the consequence will be a small suppression of the Tory vote, a switch back to Labour of some ex-Labour voters and a willingness by some to vote for LibDems or Green knowing it isn't going to change the fact that we are headed for a Tory Government with a large majority.
I would sell Tory seats and buy the rest.
It's things like raising NI on the self-employed, or raising the higher rate of income tax above 40p/freezing the bands that would cause trouble for her, not the 1%.
'uk manufacturing PMI hits 57.2 - a 3 year high.'
Definitely not part of the script,must be an error in the numbers.
It was said whoever won in 2010 would be out of power for a generation.
Dave's centrism saw the Lib Dems massacred like Carthage at Zama, drove Labour mad that they elected Corbyn as leader as well as winning a majority.
I would have expected Leave voters to be more suspicious of EU motives, Remain voters more charitable - but no, their views are virtually the same:
LEAVE/REMAIN
Thinking about the forthcoming negootiations with the European Union, what attitude do you think other European countries will end up taking?
They will probably negotiate constructively to find a
deal that works for both Britain and the EU : 30 / 33
They will probably obstruct a good deal to punish Britain
and discourage other countries from leaving: 52 / 49
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/859339747826774016
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/859340010075586564
You can disagree with blair and co but they weren't thick.
Edit FFS
Also look at the question on whether May has followed Cameron's course and whether this is a good or bad thing. Overwhelmingly (63%) Con VI think May has changed course and this is a good thing. Next up at 17% think she's kept to the Cameron course and this is also a good thing. Only tiny numbers of Con voters think its bad that she's stuck to Cameron (4%) or changed from Cameron (2%).
Actually, two bald men are welcome to this particular comb.
Sounds reasonable enough as a policy, if a bit expensive.
https://twitter.com/SteveSmithCG/status/859338789235380224
https://twitter.com/SteveSmithCG/status/859342966292455424
No wonder we had a credit bubble.
I think it's the worst interview I have heard, ever (from a politician)
Another weekend of canvassing and, although it should be bl**dy obvious, it is increasingly hitting me how fundamentally our society is about to change with Brexit (and I a hitherto remainer who expected challenges).
It's most telling when speaking with either those sympathetic to the plight of, or who actually are EU nationals. There is an ongoing traumatic change in our relationship to foreigners. They are variously bemused, aghast, distraught, amazed. These previous Cons voters now have been booted out of the club and made not welcome. A previously hugely integrated part of our citizenry alienated.
Naively on my part, it didn't really sink in, all this debate about "EU Nationals" what it meant on an individual level until all these conversations.
I felt and feel embarrassed.
The EU were the ones who put the two year deadline into the
ConstitutionLisbon Treaty - not us.You HAVE to listen to it. You won't get the full experience just from a description.