politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority
Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS
Comments
-
Did Strong & Stable supply the Edstone?
Oh, and first, like Lizzie in the Tour de Yorkshire.0 -
20
-
I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.0
-
mhhh not a good look John
https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/
But so Labour 20170 -
Has this changed much ?0
-
Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.0
-
FPT: Off-topic:
SpaceX launched a military satellite and returned the first stage back to the landing site. The video is quite remarkable: go to 14m14s to see the stages split and the first stage rotate to come home.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzQpkQ1etdA#t=14m14s
Blooming remarkable.0 -
For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart
. 0 -
Anyone who supports Labour feel like defending this?Floater said:mhhh not a good look John
https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/
But so Labour 20170 -
FPT
This drip, drip is something that will concentrate minds in No.10 and the Tory party. The Tories understand the City far better than Labour.SeanT said:Goldman Sachs moving people to Paris, Milan and Madrid.
But it's not quite the apocalypse some have anticipated. Might be as many as 1000 jobs, but who knows. Could be a lot less.
Meanwhile Barclays have decided on Dublin. And they are moving.... 150 people. Yes. 150.
Bruegel reckons 10,000-30,000 jobs may move in total. POSSIBLY. But if that is as bad as it gets, this is not the End of Days.
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/859108559317061633
It is becoming quite clear that the "passport" is a big card in the EU's hand.0 -
You should be doing more gardening!rcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.0 -
I'm guessing the swimming helps a lot!rcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.0 -
Isn't that a range of 120 to 132 majority?
Without counting Sinn Fein etc bringing it up to potentially 136?0 -
Just watching some of Election 97 on YouTube, as the Beeb couldn't show it today. Feeling weirdly nostalgic for John Major. A very decent concession speech, which I doubt we'll be seeing from Red Jez.0
-
Yes.Philip_Thompson said:Isn't that a range of 120 to 132 majority?
Without counting Sinn Fein etc bringing it up to potentially 136?0 -
Zumba twice a week helps toorcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re6M5gkjV300 -
It also moves the weight from the belly to the shoulder muscles!RobD said:
I'm guessing the swimming helps a lot!rcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.0 -
Some of us will actually die if we did that !Beverley_C said:
Zumba twice a week helps toorcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re6M5gkjV300 -
Low alcohol is sadly quite effective. As well as empty carbs it weakens the will to stick to the diet. I rarely drink when working the next day.rcs1000 said:For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart.
A glass today to celebrate the workers though!0 -
Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
For those wot missed it last night:
It's that moment you've all been waiting for...
[drum-roll]
..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):
Con 46.33 (+0.83)
Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)
Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)
Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?
(NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).
0 -
The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:
Con: 395
Lab: 165
LD: 20
SNP: 480 -
The last GE Election recall will really screw up the potential LD vote. They got 8% but 23% in 2010. I don't know how they get round that.IanB2 said:
Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?IanB2 said:
Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
From places which were red on this map:Y0kel said:I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
and blue on this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
The places which sound like lower division football teams and which people with PPE degrees have never been to.
0 -
Mrs May might bury Labour, and will ask Strong and Stable for a new Edstone for Corbyn.
A great joke but Strong and Stable don't appear to be real funeral directors.0 -
Theresa May's opponents are doing her the same favour with "strong and stable" as those of the Leave campaign did with £350m during the referendum campaign.
Plums.0 -
Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.surbiton said:Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.
Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.
The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.
IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.0 -
I believe anything north of 44% will be difficult. 44% still is exceeding good for the Tories.Sunil_Prasannan said:For those wot missed it last night:
It's that moment you've all been waiting for...
[drum-roll]
..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):
Con 46.33 (+0.83)
Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)
Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)
Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?
(NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).0 -
@faisalislam Here's the FAZ Brexit Disaster article in English. https://twitter.com/StGeorgeOfEU/status/859077646164140034/photo/10
-
Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.Black_Rook said:
Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.surbiton said:Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.
Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.
The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.
IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!0 -
The difficulty is that LD seats do come and go over time. I think that only a couple of current LD seats were LD in 97.surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.
Farron's apparantly safe seat was safely Conservative in recent memory for example. Certainly on a ground level Farron is a formidable campaigner.
SW London and the SW are good places to start, but others may pop up as prospects out of the blue, so to speak. I think most of these will be strong second places though.
0 -
Or if you want the actual constituencies:Y0kel said:
Yeah mathematics fail.Y0kel said:I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.
Still 35-40 majority i see. After that I think it gets much harder.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
Only a few on that list don't have the Conservatives as favourites on Betfair.0 -
Good. Considering what Corbyn wants in terms of labour relations, and McDonnell addressing Stalinists in 2017 we want everything to go against Labour. The Labour Party deserves to die.Casino_Royale said:Theresa May's opponents are doing her the same favour with "strong and stable" as those of the Leave campaign did with £350m during the referendum campaign.
Plums.0 -
Sounds not too far off, but I think SNP will top 50, and LDs get mid teens.chrisb said:The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:
Con: 395
Lab: 165
LD: 20
SNP: 480 -
I am reckoning on final VI pollsSunil_Prasannan said:For those wot missed it last night:
It's that moment you've all been waiting for...
[drum-roll]
..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):
Con 46.33 (+0.83)
Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)
Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)
Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?
(NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).
CON 42
LAB 33
LD 9
UKIP 8
TMICIPM0 -
"Former special advisor to defence sec James Wild chosen as tory candidate for north norfolk" - against Norman Lamb0
-
Information: the first 47 seats on the Conservative target list require swings of less than 5% to capture, so 55 gains is not wholly unrealistic. Crudely put, if you move 50% of the Ukip vote in each seat into the Tory column, then the majority of those targets turn nominally Conservative immediately (down, in fact, as far as Mansfield, target no.53,) and practically all of those that don't flip immediately become vulnerable to a direct Lab-Con swing of 2.5% or less.surbiton said:
The first genuinely tough ask on the Conservative target list - i.e. a majority over 10% and a negligible Ukip vote - is Dumfries & Galloway (target 54,) and if the polls are anywhere close concerning the scale of the Conservative revival in Scotland then they are in with a shout there as well.
I'm projecting the Conservative majority at about 120, and I don't see how they dip below 80 unless Labour manages to poll something close to its 2015 vote share *and* most of the Ukip-Con defectors desert May for Nuttall. Neither prospect seems especially likely.0 -
Watch the Council election results. While people often vote differently in council to national votes, local elections do act as a gateway to national votes.surbiton said:
Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.Black_Rook said:
Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.surbiton said:Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.
Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.
The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.
IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!0 -
Here's an interesting article on it:foxinsoxuk said:
Watch the Council election results. While people often vote differently in council to national votes, local elections do act as a gateway to national votes.surbiton said:
Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.Black_Rook said:
Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.surbiton said:Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.
Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.
The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.
IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/0 -
Great! Thanks for posting.JosiasJessop said:FPT: Off-topic:
SpaceX launched a military satellite and returned the first stage back to the landing site. The video is quite remarkable: go to 14m14s to see the stages split and the first stage rotate to come home.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzQpkQ1etdA#t=14m14s
Blooming remarkable.0 -
Labour 165 and Labour 209 in 1983 are similar. Scotland being the difference. 41 in 1983 which in todays seats is like 35. Therefore, Labour will be doing worse in England.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds not too far off, but I think SNP will top 50, and LDs get mid teens.chrisb said:The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:
Con: 395
Lab: 165
LD: 20
SNP: 480 -
A new analysis of the US election seems to indicate that 70% of Hillary's loss was due to working class whites switching from Obama to Trump, and 30% due to failure to get out the base, particularly the black vote in FL and MI
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html0 -
Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/8591303394105753600 -
People get a little too excited about the Brexit effect, working in both directions - I wouldn't expect the entire Ukip vote to go over to the Tories, for example - but I'm quite sure that it's there.surbiton said:Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.
Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
Concentrating on Torbay, I see no particular reason for the seat to go back to the Liberal Democrats. It isn't just Brexit that is relevant here: the seat has a relatively high age profile, and ranks 41 out of 650 constituencies in the UK for the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, according to 2011 census estimates. I know that I am sceptical about the accuracy of the polls, but a whole range of pollsters consistently show that the Tories are wildly popular with pensioners, Theresa May even more so, and those levels of support have been completely consistent for a long time. The polls have been known to be wrong, but not that wrong - and I see no particular reason why the voting patterns of older people should be wildly different in Devon compared with the national average.0 -
Again, Ed Balls comes out well of this article, whereas the biggest regrets of the rest of the New Labourites seems to be they didn't do more to advocate the merits of Europe and Immigration:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/new-labour-20-years-on-tony-blair-david-miliband-peter-mandelson-alastair-campbell0 -
I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/0 -
The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.0 -
Not the relaxed 'open canvassing' of Tessy, but still..
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859128238278365188
0 -
I would sell LAB and UKIP, and buy CON and LD.bigjohnowls said:
I am reckoning on final VI pollsSunil_Prasannan said:For those wot missed it last night:
It's that moment you've all been waiting for...
[drum-roll]
..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):
Con 46.33 (+0.83)
Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)
Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)
Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?
(NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).
CON 42
LAB 33
LD 9
UKIP 8
TMICIPM
I'd be vrey surprised if the LDs didn't get to 12, and given how few seats they are standing in, staggered if UKIP got above 5 or 6.0 -
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/8591286515095306240 -
The pollsters are currently all seeing 10-11% of people claiming to have voted LD in 2015, against the c. 8% who actually did. The raw numbers for the LDs are all in the 10.5-12% range, resulting in adjusted numbers about a percent lower.RobD said:
Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?IanB2 said:
Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
Surely scaling them down isn't the answer. Voters are post-rationalising their current choice by projecting it backwards.rcs1000 said:
The pollsters are currently all seeing 10-11% of people claiming to have voted LD in 2015, against the c. 8% who actually did. The raw numbers for the LDs are all in the 10.5-12% range, resulting in adjusted numbers about a percent lower.RobD said:
Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?IanB2 said:
Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?surbiton said:Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.0 -
Isn't that going to require a massive rewriting of the Lisbon Treaty. Surely massively unrealistic.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/0 -
Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/0 -
Regressive alliance xDDisraeli said:The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.0 -
Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?foxinsoxuk said:
Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/0 -
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
0 -
The hammer and sickle AND Baath party flags. Bravo.SeanT said:
"Human rights" under Saddam and Stalin .....
They need to crash and burn badly.0 -
Yes, but they would presumably be via transnational party lists.RobD said:
Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?foxinsoxuk said:
Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/0 -
And both carried out massacres of Polish elites, plus massacres/deportations of the Jews.dr_spyn said:
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.0 -
Have they binned the charter yet and scrapped "bonus payments" to families of suicide bombers?foxinsoxuk said:Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360
Then we might be getting somewhere.0 -
The only problem with this is unless it is disseminated by the media, it means nothing. They are extremely left wing but does the country realise this? Not so sure rock solid Labour supporters understand what they will be voting for at this point of time. Maybe the manifesto will highlight Labour's plans but they could have learnt the lesson of 1983 and keep it vague? An interesting question is will the Labour party put together the longest suicide note in history mark II?SeanT said:Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
It's not a knockout blow but it's a sickening uppercut. This is Britain's supposed new Chancellor, standing under the symbol of Mao, Stalin, Marx, Lenin, Pol Pot, the Gulags, the Berlin Wall, and Hugo fucking Chavez.
It's pretty bloody damaging.
Plus the Baath party flag, for added spice. Nice.0 -
There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.0 -
The lesson we learned very quickly and which is highlighted in Freedland's piece is that they had very little idea of what to do with power. They had obsessed for so long about how to win the election, but they appear to have put little to no effort into what to do once they did. Hence Blair setting up working groups and inquiries on vague 'think the unthinkable' briefs and wasting most of his first term.SeanT said:
Good piece. I remember that morning. Even as a Tory voter in that election I confess I also felt a certain, wistful hope.... I remember that gloriously sunny May weather, and the Blairs driving to Number 10, and everything was optimistic.Casino_Royale said:Again, Ed Balls comes out well of this article, whereas the biggest regrets of the rest of the New Labourites seems to be they didn't do more to advocate the merits of Europe and Immigration:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/new-labour-20-years-on-tony-blair-david-miliband-peter-mandelson-alastair-campbell
The next day, as I recall, it rained, cold and hard. An augury of what was to come.0 -
If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.dr_spyn said:
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.0 -
Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs
178-183
1-6 Labour0 -
And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.Pulpstar said:
Regressive alliance xDDisraeli said:The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.0 -
And then there was silenceglw said:
Anyone who supports Labour feel like defending this?Floater said:mhhh not a good look John
https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/
But so Labour 20170 -
I've been through some changesCasino_Royale said:
And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.Pulpstar said:
Regressive alliance xDDisraeli said:The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100
0 -
Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.BigRich said:
There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.0 -
I went and did some research and thought that this actually could be really promisingFloater said:
Have they binned the charter yet and scrapped "bonus payments" to families of suicide bombers?foxinsoxuk said:Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360
Then we might be getting somewhere.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hamas-drop-call-israel-destruction-disassociate-muslim-brotherhood-new-document-palestine-a7712076.html
"Palestinian militant group Hamas’ leadership will drop its call for Israel’s destruction and distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood, in an apparent attempt to rebrand the organisation as more moderate."
sounds great , but then
"The revised political document will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told the Reuters news agency."
So, no call for destruction.... but will reject right to exist and continue armed struggle against it
Mhhh0 -
My, what big ... ears you have.Pulpstar said:
I've been through some changesCasino_Royale said:
And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.Pulpstar said:
Regressive alliance xDDisraeli said:The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=1000 -
1-6 Labour... to have most women MPs?isam said:Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs
178-183
1-6 Labour0 -
Churchill did know that, and knew it at the time he was making favourable public comments about Stalin. When his private secretary John Colville asked why a fervent anti-Communist should change his tune, he replied 'if Hitler had invaded Hell, I would have found a way to make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.' He also warned the Polish ambassador to Moscow that the Russians would 'annihilate' Poland if they occupied it, which the ambassador ignored as he was endorsed by Poland's Communists.Theuniondivvie said:
If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.dr_spyn said:
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.0 -
My research also found this
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/
He is incapable of change.0 -
Yes, indeed you have.Pulpstar said:
I've been through some changesCasino_Royale said:
And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.Pulpstar said:
Regressive alliance xDDisraeli said:The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100
So I'd recommend deploying some of your undoubted high intellect towards discretion when passing judgement on the politics of others, lest people question the sincerity of your "progressiveness".
"Pulpstar Posts: 37,422
May 2016
nunu said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3615599/Britain-s-wide-open-borders-Second-boat-Albanians-tries-land-UK-shore-just-three-patrol-boat-patrols-guard-7-700-mile-coastline-French-coastguard-chief-says-Channel-new-Med.html
Send them back!"
Sink the invaders."0 -
Don't forget the reference letter for the ISIS fund raiser...so he could get released for Christmas.Floater said:My research also found this
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/
He is incapable of change.
Just one of these kind of stories is normally enough to do for a politician. Remember, Osborne's career was nearly taken out by deciding to have a single dinner with a Russian metal magnate.0 -
It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/8591042350651351060 -
SpreadTheWhiteRabbit said:
1-6 Labour... to have most women MPs?isam said:Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs
178-183
1-6 Labour0 -
So the lucky voters get to pick a list named after a party they have not previously heard of, containing the names of foreign politicians they haven't heard of and can't re-order if they dislike anyone miraculously notable and at the top of the list.foxinsoxuk said:
Yes, but they would presumably be via transnational party lists.RobD said:
Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?foxinsoxuk said:
Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Yep, that will get the transnational engagement flowing.0 -
Still denies the right of Israel to exist, AIUI.foxinsoxuk said:Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/8591303394105753600 -
LOL, I suppose, that Brexit could help that Demos emerge, but it will still be a long slow proses without a hot war. Ironically the UK leaving may help English grow to be seen as a neutral language, and become the Da-Facto language of the EU.AnneJGP said:
Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.BigRich said:
There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
0 -
Similarlyish, when someone - I think Fitzroy MacLean - expressed concern about the long-term consequences of supporting Tito's communist regime in Yugoslavia, Churchill shut him up by saying "Do you intend to live in Yugoslavia after the war?"ydoethur said:
Churchill did know that, and knew it at the time he was making favourable public comments about Stalin. When his private secretary John Colville asked why a fervent anti-Communist should change his tune, he replied 'if Hitler had invaded Hell, I would have found a way to make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.' He also warned the Polish ambassador to Moscow that the Russians would 'annihilate' Poland if they occupied it, which the ambassador ignored as he was endorsed by Poland's Communists.Theuniondivvie said:
If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.dr_spyn said:
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360
I wonder if they think gay sex is a sin?
0 -
Brexit hate crime, awaiting Diane Abbot's view...
"Dulwich Park attack: Man charged after Italian national 'stabbed in head' near children's playground"
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/dulwich-park-attack-man-charged-after-italian-national-stabbed-in-head-left-fighting-for-life-a3527941.html0 -
@hendopolis: FINANCIAL TIMES Brussels poised for power grab on London's euro clearing market #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/859143174224261120/photo/10
-
I wonder if the FT will manage to a do a front page between now and 2019 that isn't Brexit disaster (possibly)?Scott_P said:@hendopolis: FINANCIAL TIMES Brussels poised for power grab on London's euro clearing market #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/859143174224261120/photo/1
0 -
LOL. That would be ironic.BigRich said:
LOL, I suppose, that Brexit could help that Demos emerge, but it will still be a long slow proses without a hot war. Ironically the UK leaving may help English grow to be seen as a neutral language, and become the Da-Facto language of the EU.AnneJGP said:
Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.BigRich said:
There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
How does one say 'Woe, woe, and thrice woe' in French?0 -
Our candidate to run the British economy is an extremist, lunatic shitebag.dr_spyn said:It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106
Vote Labour.0 -
Well remembered! Churchill said "If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."SeanT said:
What an utterly ridiculous statement. We had to defeat Hitler. He was the greater evil - and the greater threat to us. As Churchill said, he would have allied with Satan to defeat Nazism.Theuniondivvie said:
If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.dr_spyn said:
The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.Black_Rook said:
Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.SeanT said:Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
Pfff.
The key question though - would Churchill have been prepared to ally with the SNP - or would that be going TOO far?
0 -
It always made me scratch my head it was such a huge problem for Osborne, but not for Mandelson?FrancisUrquhart said:
Don't forget the reference letter for the ISIS fund raiser...so he could get released for Christmas.Floater said:My research also found this
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/
He is incapable of change.
Just one of these kind of stories is normally enough to do for a politician. Remember, Osborne's career was nearly taken out by deciding to have a single dinner with a Russian metal magnate.
Also, why the feck would an Isis fund raiser care about xmas?0 -
And that is a kind description. McMao is far worse than Jahadi Jez. Jahadi Jez is moronic idiot stuck in the 1970s who won't change his views for anybody. McMao will bend to sound more reasonable, when in fact is far more extreme. He is a self admitted entrist into the Labour Party.Black_Rook said:
Our candidate to run the British economy is an extremist, lunatic shitebag.dr_spyn said:It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106
Vote Labour.0 -
The EU will treat the UK differently to any other third country precisely because we have chosen to leave their club.AnneJGP said:
Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.BigRich said:
There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.SeanT said:
There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.foxinsoxuk said:I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
They are so focused on making an example of the UK, doing whatever is necessary to ensure that Brexit cannot be seen a success, that they've given almost no thought at all as to what they want the long-term future of UK-EU relations to look like.
They will continue to use phrases like "firm and fair", and stress this isn't "punishment" but the natural consequence of a member state leaving the EU, but everyone knows it isn't true.0
