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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS
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Oh, and first, like Lizzie in the Tour de Yorkshire.
https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/
But so Labour 2017
SpaceX launched a military satellite and returned the first stage back to the landing site. The video is quite remarkable: go to 14m14s to see the stages split and the first stage rotate to come home.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzQpkQ1etdA#t=14m14s
Blooming remarkable.
Fast until 9:30am every morning
Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
Ten thousand steps walking every day
Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week
It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart
It is becoming quite clear that the "passport" is a big card in the EU's hand.
Without counting Sinn Fein etc bringing it up to potentially 136?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re6M5gkjV30
Still 35-40 majority i see. After that I think it gets much harder.
A glass today to celebrate the workers though!
I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.
It's that moment you've all been waiting for...
[drum-roll]
..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!
Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):
Con 46.33 (+0.83)
Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)
Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)
Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?
(NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).
Con: 395
Lab: 165
LD: 20
SNP: 48
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
and blue on this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
The places which sound like lower division football teams and which people with PPE degrees have never been to.
A great joke but Strong and Stable don't appear to be real funeral directors.
Plums.
Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.
The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.
IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
Farron's apparantly safe seat was safely Conservative in recent memory for example. Certainly on a ground level Farron is a formidable campaigner.
SW London and the SW are good places to start, but others may pop up as prospects out of the blue, so to speak. I think most of these will be strong second places though.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
Only a few on that list don't have the Conservatives as favourites on Betfair.
CON 42
LAB 33
LD 9
UKIP 8
TMICIPM
The first genuinely tough ask on the Conservative target list - i.e. a majority over 10% and a negligible Ukip vote - is Dumfries & Galloway (target 54,) and if the polls are anywhere close concerning the scale of the Conservative revival in Scotland then they are in with a shout there as well.
I'm projecting the Conservative majority at about 120, and I don't see how they dip below 80 unless Labour manages to poll something close to its 2015 vote share *and* most of the Ukip-Con defectors desert May for Nuttall. Neither prospect seems especially likely.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360
Concentrating on Torbay, I see no particular reason for the seat to go back to the Liberal Democrats. It isn't just Brexit that is relevant here: the seat has a relatively high age profile, and ranks 41 out of 650 constituencies in the UK for the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, according to 2011 census estimates. I know that I am sceptical about the accuracy of the polls, but a whole range of pollsters consistently show that the Tories are wildly popular with pensioners, Theresa May even more so, and those levels of support have been completely consistent for a long time. The polls have been known to be wrong, but not that wrong - and I see no particular reason why the voting patterns of older people should be wildly different in Devon compared with the national average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/new-labour-20-years-on-tony-blair-david-miliband-peter-mandelson-alastair-campbell
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the
"Strong and Stable"Conservative Party.https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859128238278365188
I'd be vrey surprised if the LDs didn't get to 12, and given how few seats they are standing in, staggered if UKIP got above 5 or 6.
Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
"Human rights" under Saddam and Stalin .....
They need to crash and burn badly.
Then we might be getting somewhere.
Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
178-183
1-6 Labour
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100
If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hamas-drop-call-israel-destruction-disassociate-muslim-brotherhood-new-document-palestine-a7712076.html
"Palestinian militant group Hamas’ leadership will drop its call for Israel’s destruction and distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood, in an apparent attempt to rebrand the organisation as more moderate."
sounds great , but then
"The revised political document will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told the Reuters news agency."
So, no call for destruction.... but will reject right to exist and continue armed struggle against it
Mhhh
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/
He is incapable of change.
So I'd recommend deploying some of your undoubted high intellect towards discretion when passing judgement on the politics of others, lest people question the sincerity of your "progressiveness".
"Pulpstar Posts: 37,422
May 2016
nunu said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3615599/Britain-s-wide-open-borders-Second-boat-Albanians-tries-land-UK-shore-just-three-patrol-boat-patrols-guard-7-700-mile-coastline-French-coastguard-chief-says-Channel-new-Med.html
Send them back!"
Sink the invaders."
Just one of these kind of stories is normally enough to do for a politician. Remember, Osborne's career was nearly taken out by deciding to have a single dinner with a Russian metal magnate.
https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106
Yep, that will get the transnational engagement flowing.
I wonder if they think gay sex is a sin?
"Dulwich Park attack: Man charged after Italian national 'stabbed in head' near children's playground"
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/dulwich-park-attack-man-charged-after-italian-national-stabbed-in-head-left-fighting-for-life-a3527941.html
How does one say 'Woe, woe, and thrice woe' in French?
Vote Labour.
The key question though - would Churchill have been prepared to ally with the SNP - or would that be going TOO far?
Also, why the feck would an Isis fund raiser care about xmas?
They are so focused on making an example of the UK, doing whatever is necessary to ensure that Brexit cannot be seen a success, that they've given almost no thought at all as to what they want the long-term future of UK-EU relations to look like.
They will continue to use phrases like "firm and fair", and stress this isn't "punishment" but the natural consequence of a member state leaving the EU, but everyone knows it isn't true.