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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

SystemSystem Posts: 12,558
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets continue to point to CON 100+ majority

Love this pic.twitter.com/glp8dR7IIS

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,121
    edited May 2017
    Did Strong & Stable supply the Edstone?

    Oh, and first, like Lizzie in the Tour de Yorkshire.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,884
    2
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    mhhh not a good look John

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/

    But so Labour 2017
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has this changed much ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,884
    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    Surely it's only 45 net gains for a majority of 100.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133
    FPT: Off-topic:

    SpaceX launched a military satellite and returned the first stage back to the landing site. The video is quite remarkable: go to 14m14s to see the stages split and the first stage rotate to come home.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzQpkQ1etdA#t=14m14s

    Blooming remarkable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,637
    edited May 2017
    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,457
    Floater said:

    mhhh not a good look John

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/

    But so Labour 2017

    Anyone who supports Labour feel like defending this?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    Goldman Sachs moving people to Paris, Milan and Madrid.

    But it's not quite the apocalypse some have anticipated. Might be as many as 1000 jobs, but who knows. Could be a lot less.

    Meanwhile Barclays have decided on Dublin. And they are moving.... 150 people. Yes. 150.

    Bruegel reckons 10,000-30,000 jobs may move in total. POSSIBLY. But if that is as bad as it gets, this is not the End of Days.

    https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/859108559317061633

    This drip, drip is something that will concentrate minds in No.10 and the Tory party. The Tories understand the City far better than Labour.

    It is becoming quite clear that the "passport" is a big card in the EU's hand.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,840
    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    You should be doing more gardening!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    I'm guessing the swimming helps a lot!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tlg86 said:

    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    Surely it's only 45 net gains for a majority of 100.
    Simples. They have 331 now. 55 more gives them 386.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Isn't that a range of 120 to 132 majority?

    Without counting Sinn Fein etc bringing it up to potentially 136?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Just watching some of Election 97 on YouTube, as the Beeb couldn't show it today. Feeling weirdly nostalgic for John Major. A very decent concession speech, which I doubt we'll be seeing from Red Jez.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Isn't that a range of 120 to 132 majority?

    Without counting Sinn Fein etc bringing it up to potentially 136?

    Yes.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    Zumba twice a week helps too :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re6M5gkjV30
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    Yeah mathematics fail.

    Still 35-40 majority i see. After that I think it gets much harder.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,637
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    I'm guessing the swimming helps a lot!
    It also moves the weight from the belly to the shoulder muscles!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Beverley_C said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    Zumba twice a week helps too :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re6M5gkjV30
    Some of us will actually die if we did that !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    For weight loss, I use what I call the FLATS plan:

    Fast until 9:30am every morning
    Low Alcohol, so a couple of days not drinking, and only one night where I have more than a glass
    Ten thousand steps walking every day
    Swimming 750 - 1,000m five days a week

    It burns off about 1.5kg a week, so I need only do it for a week or two if I need to bring my weight under control. I like to maintain a fairly tight 84-86kg range, but having been on gardening leave for the last six weeks, I've risen to 88kg. Time to restart :smile:.

    Low alcohol is sadly quite effective. As well as empty carbs it weakens the will to stick to the diet. I rarely drink when working the next day.

    A glass today to celebrate the workers though!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,056
    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,893
    For those wot missed it last night:

    It's that moment you've all been waiting for...

    [drum-roll]

    ..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

    Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):

    Con 46.33 (+0.83)
    Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
    LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
    UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)

    Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)

    Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?

    (NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 121
    The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:

    Con: 395
    Lab: 165
    LD: 20
    SNP: 48
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IanB2 said:

    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?
    The last GE Election recall will really screw up the potential LD vote. They got 8% but 23% in 2010. I don't know how they get round that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    IanB2 said:

    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?
    Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,848
    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    From places which were red on this map:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

    and blue on this map:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    The places which sound like lower division football teams and which people with PPE degrees have never been to.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Mrs May might bury Labour, and will ask Strong and Stable for a new Edstone for Corbyn.

    A great joke but Strong and Stable don't appear to be real funeral directors.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Theresa May's opponents are doing her the same favour with "strong and stable" as those of the Leave campaign did with £350m during the referendum campaign.

    Plums.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    surbiton said:

    Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.

    Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.

    Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.

    The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.

    IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    For those wot missed it last night:

    It's that moment you've all been waiting for...

    [drum-roll]

    ..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

    Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):

    Con 46.33 (+0.83)
    Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
    LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
    UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)

    Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)

    Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?

    (NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).

    I believe anything north of 44% will be difficult. 44% still is exceeding good for the Tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam Here's the FAZ Brexit Disaster article in English. https://twitter.com/StGeorgeOfEU/status/859077646164140034/photo/1
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Black_Rook said:

    surbiton said:

    Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.

    Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.

    Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.

    The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.

    IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
    Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.

    Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    The difficulty is that LD seats do come and go over time. I think that only a couple of current LD seats were LD in 97.

    Farron's apparantly safe seat was safely Conservative in recent memory for example. Certainly on a ground level Farron is a formidable campaigner.

    SW London and the SW are good places to start, but others may pop up as prospects out of the blue, so to speak. I think most of these will be strong second places though.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,848
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    Yeah mathematics fail.

    Still 35-40 majority i see. After that I think it gets much harder.
    Or if you want the actual constituencies:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

    Only a few on that list don't have the Conservatives as favourites on Betfair.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,457
    Casino_Royale said:

    Theresa May's opponents are doing her the same favour with "strong and stable" as those of the Leave campaign did with £350m during the referendum campaign.

    Plums.

    Good. Considering what Corbyn wants in terms of labour relations, and McDonnell addressing Stalinists in 2017 we want everything to go against Labour. The Labour Party deserves to die.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chrisb said:

    The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:

    Con: 395
    Lab: 165
    LD: 20
    SNP: 48

    Sounds not too far off, but I think SNP will top 50, and LDs get mid teens.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    For those wot missed it last night:

    It's that moment you've all been waiting for...

    [drum-roll]

    ..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

    Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):

    Con 46.33 (+0.83)
    Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
    LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
    UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)

    Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)

    Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?

    (NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).

    I am reckoning on final VI polls

    CON 42
    LAB 33
    LD 9
    UKIP 8

    TMICIPM
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    "Former special advisor to defence sec James Wild chosen as tory candidate for north norfolk" - against Norman Lamb
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    surbiton said:

    tlg86 said:

    Y0kel said:

    I still don't see where they get 80 odd net gains from.

    Surely it's only 45 net gains for a majority of 100.
    Simples. They have 331 now. 55 more gives them 386.
    Information: the first 47 seats on the Conservative target list require swings of less than 5% to capture, so 55 gains is not wholly unrealistic. Crudely put, if you move 50% of the Ukip vote in each seat into the Tory column, then the majority of those targets turn nominally Conservative immediately (down, in fact, as far as Mansfield, target no.53,) and practically all of those that don't flip immediately become vulnerable to a direct Lab-Con swing of 2.5% or less.

    The first genuinely tough ask on the Conservative target list - i.e. a majority over 10% and a negligible Ukip vote - is Dumfries & Galloway (target 54,) and if the polls are anywhere close concerning the scale of the Conservative revival in Scotland then they are in with a shout there as well.

    I'm projecting the Conservative majority at about 120, and I don't see how they dip below 80 unless Labour manages to poll something close to its 2015 vote share *and* most of the Ukip-Con defectors desert May for Nuttall. Neither prospect seems especially likely.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Black_Rook said:

    surbiton said:

    Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.

    Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.

    Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.

    The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.

    IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
    Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.

    Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
    Watch the Council election results. While people often vote differently in council to national votes, local elections do act as a gateway to national votes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    Black_Rook said:

    surbiton said:

    Do we know which seats LD has to win to reach 25 ? Presumably they keep Richmond.

    Putting the Lib Dems on 25 seats is, unless the polls are substantially out for them, somewhat heroic.

    Crudely speaking, it would require them to hold everything they already have, and capture their top 16 targets, down as far as Fife North East. The Lib Dem defences include several Leave-leaning Lib-Con marginals with big Ukip votes (North Norfolk, Carshalton & Wallington, and Southport where the sitting MP is standing down,) plus that by-election gain at Richmond Park. If any of the vulnerable defences flips back into the Con column, or any of the more achievable targets is missed, then more seats from further down their target list have to be captured to reach 25.

    The Lib Dem target list itself contains seats which look reachable purely on swing, but are rather trickier in practice. For example, Torbay (target 10) voted 2:1 to Leave, so is a tough ask for them. A lot of the Conservative seats on the list, e.g. Yeovil (target 15) are also Leave-leaning and have big Ukip votes available to mine. And once you get past Fife North East (target 16,) the swings needed tip above 5%.

    IMHO, the spreads on the betting markets reflect investor over-excitement about the prospect of mass tactical voting in Remain areas, for which there is scant evidence, combined with some huge swings in tiny, low turnout local authority by-elections. They are not realistic. I have the Lib Dems marked down for 10-15 seats, and it is not inconceivable that they could finish in single figures if they're unlucky. If they surprise on the upside then they will be doing exceptionally well to make 20 seats.
    Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.

    Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!
    Watch the Council election results. While people often vote differently in council to national votes, local elections do act as a gateway to national votes.
    Here's an interesting article on it:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    JosiasJessop said:

    FPT: Off-topic:

    SpaceX launched a military satellite and returned the first stage back to the landing site. The video is quite remarkable: go to 14m14s to see the stages split and the first stage rotate to come home.

    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzQpkQ1etdA#t=14m14s

    Blooming remarkable.

    Great! Thanks for posting.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chrisb said:

    The individual constituency markets are currently implying seat totals as follows:

    Con: 395
    Lab: 165
    LD: 20
    SNP: 48

    Sounds not too far off, but I think SNP will top 50, and LDs get mid teens.
    Labour 165 and Labour 209 in 1983 are similar. Scotland being the difference. 41 in 1983 which in todays seats is like 35. Therefore, Labour will be doing worse in England.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    A new analysis of the US election seems to indicate that 70% of Hillary's loss was due to working class whites switching from Obama to Trump, and 30% due to failure to get out the base, particularly the black vote in FL and MI

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article147475484.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:

    https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/858953791563075584
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    surbiton said:

    Do you think us politicos make too much of this Brexit business with regard to the GE ? Many people might go back to the Liberals in Torbay because the nice Mr Cameron is no longer there.

    Like that stat, 2% of UKIP voters support Remain !!!!!!!!!

    People get a little too excited about the Brexit effect, working in both directions - I wouldn't expect the entire Ukip vote to go over to the Tories, for example - but I'm quite sure that it's there.

    Concentrating on Torbay, I see no particular reason for the seat to go back to the Liberal Democrats. It isn't just Brexit that is relevant here: the seat has a relatively high age profile, and ranks 41 out of 650 constituencies in the UK for the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, according to 2011 census estimates. I know that I am sceptical about the accuracy of the polls, but a whole range of pollsters consistently show that the Tories are wildly popular with pensioners, Theresa May even more so, and those levels of support have been completely consistent for a long time. The polls have been known to be wrong, but not that wrong - and I see no particular reason why the voting patterns of older people should be wildly different in Devon compared with the national average.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Again, Ed Balls comes out well of this article, whereas the biggest regrets of the rest of the New Labourites seems to be they didn't do more to advocate the merits of Europe and Immigration:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/new-labour-20-years-on-tony-blair-david-miliband-peter-mandelson-alastair-campbell
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,226
    Not the relaxed 'open canvassing' of Tessy, but still..

    https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/859128238278365188

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,637
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    For those wot missed it last night:

    It's that moment you've all been waiting for...

    [drum-roll]

    ..this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week)!

    Average of Nine polls with fieldwork ending 24th to 30th April (inc. ORB):

    Con 46.33 (+0.83)
    Lab 28.11 (+2.01)
    LibDem 10.22 (-0.18)
    UKIP 6.67 (-1.93)

    Tory lead 18.22 (-1.18)

    Look at that Tory lead plummet - JICIPM?

    (NB, last week's figures adjusted for a late, stray ORB from 20th Apr).

    I am reckoning on final VI polls

    CON 42
    LAB 33
    LD 9
    UKIP 8

    TMICIPM
    I would sell LAB and UKIP, and buy CON and LD.

    I'd be vrey surprised if the LDs didn't get to 12, and given how few seats they are standing in, staggered if UKIP got above 5 or 6.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,457
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    The hammer and sickle AND Baath party flags. Bravo.

    The Tories should shove that through every letter box in Britain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,637
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?
    Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?
    The pollsters are currently all seeing 10-11% of people claiming to have voted LD in 2015, against the c. 8% who actually did. The raw numbers for the LDs are all in the 10.5-12% range, resulting in adjusted numbers about a percent lower.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    surbiton said:

    Lib Dem supporters: If this 25-28 were to come about, which seats are we talking about ? Presumably, South West London and South West England. Where else ?

    I believe this sort of LD band corresponds to about 15% in the polls.

    Probably what the LDs are on in the raw polling returns, before the pollsters start fiddling with it?
    Isn't that something that can be checked in their tables?
    The pollsters are currently all seeing 10-11% of people claiming to have voted LD in 2015, against the c. 8% who actually did. The raw numbers for the LDs are all in the 10.5-12% range, resulting in adjusted numbers about a percent lower.
    Surely scaling them down isn't the answer. Voters are post-rationalising their current choice by projecting it backwards.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,292
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    Isn't that going to require a massive rewriting of the Lisbon Treaty. Surely massively unrealistic.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721
    Disraeli said:

    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.

    Regressive alliance xD
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,580
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.
    Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SeanT said:

    It gets worse

    https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/859128909044092928

    The hammer and sickle AND Baath party flags. Bravo.

    "Human rights" under Saddam and Stalin .....

    They need to crash and burn badly.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.
    Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?
    Yes, but they would presumably be via transnational party lists.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,121
    dr_spyn said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
    And both carried out massacres of Polish elites, plus massacres/deportations of the Jews.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:

    https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360

    Have they binned the charter yet and scrapped "bonus payments" to families of suicide bombers?

    Then we might be getting somewhere.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    SeanT said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.

    It's not a knockout blow but it's a sickening uppercut. This is Britain's supposed new Chancellor, standing under the symbol of Mao, Stalin, Marx, Lenin, Pol Pot, the Gulags, the Berlin Wall, and Hugo fucking Chavez.

    It's pretty bloody damaging.

    Plus the Baath party flag, for added spice. Nice.
    The only problem with this is unless it is disseminated by the media, it means nothing. They are extremely left wing but does the country realise this? Not so sure rock solid Labour supporters understand what they will be voting for at this point of time. Maybe the manifesto will highlight Labour's plans but they could have learnt the lesson of 1983 and keep it vague? An interesting question is will the Labour party put together the longest suicide note in history mark II?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.

    Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Again, Ed Balls comes out well of this article, whereas the biggest regrets of the rest of the New Labourites seems to be they didn't do more to advocate the merits of Europe and Immigration:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/new-labour-20-years-on-tony-blair-david-miliband-peter-mandelson-alastair-campbell

    Good piece. I remember that morning. Even as a Tory voter in that election I confess I also felt a certain, wistful hope.... I remember that gloriously sunny May weather, and the Blairs driving to Number 10, and everything was optimistic.

    The next day, as I recall, it rained, cold and hard. An augury of what was to come.
    The lesson we learned very quickly and which is highlighted in Freedland's piece is that they had very little idea of what to do with power. They had obsessed for so long about how to win the election, but they appear to have put little to no effort into what to do once they did. Hence Blair setting up working groups and inquiries on vague 'think the unthinkable' briefs and wasting most of his first term.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,226
    dr_spyn said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
    If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    edited May 2017
    Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs

    178-183
    1-6 Labour
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.

    Regressive alliance xD
    And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    glw said:

    Floater said:

    mhhh not a good look John

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/mcdonnell-addresses-stalinists-communist-flag/

    But so Labour 2017

    Anyone who supports Labour feel like defending this?
    And then there was silence
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.

    Regressive alliance xD
    And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.
    I've been through some changes

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100 :o
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.

    Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
    Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.

    If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:

    https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360

    Have they binned the charter yet and scrapped "bonus payments" to families of suicide bombers?

    Then we might be getting somewhere.
    I went and did some research and thought that this actually could be really promising

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/hamas-drop-call-israel-destruction-disassociate-muslim-brotherhood-new-document-palestine-a7712076.html

    "Palestinian militant group Hamas’ leadership will drop its call for Israel’s destruction and distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood, in an apparent attempt to rebrand the organisation as more moderate."

    sounds great , but then

    "The revised political document will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told the Reuters news agency."

    So, no call for destruction.... but will reject right to exist and continue armed struggle against it

    Mhhh
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.

    Regressive alliance xD
    And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.
    I've been through some changes

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100 :o
    My, what big ... ears you have.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    isam said:

    Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs

    178-183
    1-6 Labour

    1-6 Labour... to have most women MPs?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,121
    edited May 2017
    Theuniondivvie said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
    If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.
    Churchill did know that, and knew it at the time he was making favourable public comments about Stalin. When his private secretary John Colville asked why a fervent anti-Communist should change his tune, he replied 'if Hitler had invaded Hell, I would have found a way to make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.' He also warned the Polish ambassador to Moscow that the Russians would 'annihilate' Poland if they occupied it, which the ambassador ignored as he was endorsed by Poland's Communists.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    My research also found this

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/

    He is incapable of change.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Disraeli said:

    The UKIP vote will collapse at the General Election because quite simply there will be relatively few candidates to vote for!

    Many UKIP voters will arrive at the polling station and have to make a quick decision on who to vote for in the polling booth itself. I agree with most commentators on this. The main beneficiaries will be the "Strong and Stable" Conservative Party.

    Regressive alliance xD
    And yet you were declaring yourself on here as a Tory/Kipper less than 2 years ago.
    I've been through some changes

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/nintchdbpict0003192628403-e1493334072282.jpg?strip=all&w=713&quality=100&quality=100 :o
    Yes, indeed you have.

    So I'd recommend deploying some of your undoubted high intellect towards discretion when passing judgement on the politics of others, lest people question the sincerity of your "progressiveness".

    "Pulpstar Posts: 37,422
    May 2016
    nunu said:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3615599/Britain-s-wide-open-borders-Second-boat-Albanians-tries-land-UK-shore-just-three-patrol-boat-patrols-guard-7-700-mile-coastline-French-coastguard-chief-says-Channel-new-Med.html

    Send them back!"

    Sink the invaders."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    edited May 2017
    Floater said:

    My research also found this

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/

    He is incapable of change.

    Don't forget the reference letter for the ISIS fund raiser...so he could get released for Christmas.

    Just one of these kind of stories is normally enough to do for a politician. Remember, Osborne's career was nearly taken out by deciding to have a single dinner with a Russian metal magnate.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.

    https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    isam said:

    Star Spreads have a market on Female MPs

    178-183
    1-6 Labour

    1-6 Labour... to have most women MPs?
    Spread
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    foxinsoxuk said:

    RobD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    Well, the Europeans do look to be working on encouraging one. It seems a very positive move to have transnational elections for a trans national parliament.
    Wouldn't the proportion of seats to each bloc be relatively unchanged with a top up?
    Yes, but they would presumably be via transnational party lists.
    So the lucky voters get to pick a list named after a party they have not previously heard of, containing the names of foreign politicians they haven't heard of and can't re-order if they dislike anyone miraculously notable and at the top of the list.

    Yep, that will get the transnational engagement flowing.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:

    https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360

    Still denies the right of Israel to exist, AIUI.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    AnneJGP said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.

    Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
    Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.

    If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
    LOL, I suppose, that Brexit could help that Demos emerge, but it will still be a long slow proses without a hot war. Ironically the UK leaving may help English grow to be seen as a neutral language, and become the Da-Facto language of the EU.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
    If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.
    Churchill did know that, and knew it at the time he was making favourable public comments about Stalin. When his private secretary John Colville asked why a fervent anti-Communist should change his tune, he replied 'if Hitler had invaded Hell, I would have found a way to make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.' He also warned the Polish ambassador to Moscow that the Russians would 'annihilate' Poland if they occupied it, which the ambassador ignored as he was endorsed by Poland's Communists.
    Similarlyish, when someone - I think Fitzroy MacLean - expressed concern about the long-term consequences of supporting Tito's communist regime in Yugoslavia, Churchill shut him up by saying "Do you intend to live in Yugoslavia after the war?"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Hamas has started detoxifying itself it seems:

    https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/859130339410575360



    I wonder if they think gay sex is a sin?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    Brexit hate crime, awaiting Diane Abbot's view...

    "Dulwich Park attack: Man charged after Italian national 'stabbed in head' near children's playground"

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/dulwich-park-attack-man-charged-after-italian-national-stabbed-in-head-left-fighting-for-life-a3527941.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hendopolis: FINANCIAL TIMES Brussels poised for power grab on London's euro clearing market #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/859143174224261120/photo/1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    Scott_P said:

    @hendopolis: FINANCIAL TIMES Brussels poised for power grab on London's euro clearing market #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/859143174224261120/photo/1

    I wonder if the FT will manage to a do a front page between now and 2019 that isn't Brexit disaster (possibly)?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,727
    BigRich said:

    AnneJGP said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.

    Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
    Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.

    If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
    LOL, I suppose, that Brexit could help that Demos emerge, but it will still be a long slow proses without a hot war. Ironically the UK leaving may help English grow to be seen as a neutral language, and become the Da-Facto language of the EU.
    LOL. That would be ironic.

    How does one say 'Woe, woe, and thrice woe' in French?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.

    https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106

    Our candidate to run the British economy is an extremist, lunatic shitebag.

    Vote Labour.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Black_Rook said:

    SeanT said:

    Jesus. Look at the state of this. To drive the point home, the equivalent is Chancellor Philip Hammond, at a political rally, standing under a swastika.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/859128651509530624

    Sadly this won't prove a knockout blow. The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile counterparts of Fascists that they actually are.
    The public has an unfortunate tendency to indulge Communists as unworldly eccentrics, rather than being regarded as the vile accomplices of Fascists that they actually are.

    Poland September 1939, NKVD and Gestapo exchanged of political prisoners.
    If only Churchill had known that, and about the Holodomor and the show trials and the Gulags and Katyn before he went full bromance on J.V.
    What an utterly ridiculous statement. We had to defeat Hitler. He was the greater evil - and the greater threat to us. As Churchill said, he would have allied with Satan to defeat Nazism.

    Pfff.
    Well remembered! Churchill said "If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."

    The key question though - would Churchill have been prepared to ally with the SNP - or would that be going TOO far? :trollface:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Floater said:

    My research also found this

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3454760/jeremy-corbyn-demanded-taxpayers-prop-up-controversial-charity-linked-to-hamas/

    He is incapable of change.

    Don't forget the reference letter for the ISIS fund raiser...so he could get released for Christmas.

    Just one of these kind of stories is normally enough to do for a politician. Remember, Osborne's career was nearly taken out by deciding to have a single dinner with a Russian metal magnate.
    It always made me scratch my head it was such a huge problem for Osborne, but not for Mandelson?

    Also, why the feck would an Isis fund raiser care about xmas?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,319
    Black_Rook said:

    dr_spyn said:

    It appears that Neil Coyle MP hasn't time for McDonnell's behaviour this afternoon.

    https://twitter.com/coyleneil/status/859104235065135106

    Our candidate to run the British economy is an extremist, lunatic shitebag.

    Vote Labour.
    And that is a kind description. McMao is far worse than Jahadi Jez. Jahadi Jez is moronic idiot stuck in the 1970s who won't change his views for anybody. McMao will bend to sound more reasonable, when in fact is far more extreme. He is a self admitted entrist into the Labour Party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    AnneJGP said:

    BigRich said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I see Verhofstadt and Macron are coming behind the idea of reallocating the seats of UK MEPs to Europe wide elections, presumably by PR (? top up seats) that would seem a very good way of building the European Parliament as a democracy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/european-union-may-create-new-class-supranational-meps-brexit/

    There is not, and can never be, a European demos, willing and able to instruct the ruling classes. That's why we Left.
    There isn't a Europe Demos, or is there likely to be In the short term, but I would not say never, - Never say Never! It will just tack a shared traumatic experience, e.g. a war in which they are all on the same side.

    Personally I'm not a fan of war, and don't know what else would have the same effect, maybe living under the same brutal dictator.
    Well, Brexit might. It isn't so much a war as a common 'enemy' even if it's restricted to words.

    If the people of the EU countries do see the UK as betraying the great project that has benefited them all hugely, we might become a sufficient 'enemy' to cause the single European demos to emerge.
    The EU will treat the UK differently to any other third country precisely because we have chosen to leave their club.

    They are so focused on making an example of the UK, doing whatever is necessary to ensure that Brexit cannot be seen a success, that they've given almost no thought at all as to what they want the long-term future of UK-EU relations to look like.

    They will continue to use phrases like "firm and fair", and stress this isn't "punishment" but the natural consequence of a member state leaving the EU, but everyone knows it isn't true.
This discussion has been closed.