It's even clearer when you think about the Irish border question, which they also say should be resolved before they'll discuss a trade deal. How on earth is that supposed to work? We're supposed to agree arrangements on the border without knowing whether there will have to be tariffs and customs checks at the border? Are these people quite sane?
No, we're supposed to agree that tariffs and customs checks are not acceptable, and build any subsequent elements of the deal around that.
In other words, just do what we're told (remain in the Customs Union and the single market) and damn the voters.
Seems you and Ally_B have a lot in common.
Northern Ireland at least should stay in the Customs Union and single market. And once the principle of a differentiated deal is agreed, the SNP swings into gear. It's salami tactics.
Given a majority of Scottish exports go to the rUK they would be hit hard by the inevitable customs duties and border controls that a hypothetical independent Scotland would face and Northern Ireland would face similar problems in exports to rUK and May will quite rightly state that Brexit terms should apply to the whole UK
From Derek Bateman's blog
National Accounts Statistics.... 2015 stats. They appear to show Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK to be £45 billion while imports from rUK to be nearer £51 billion, a difference of £6 billion. As I said, they need us just as much as we need them. Indeed, if you think of England’s exports totalling in the region of £220 billion, then the share they send to Scottish markets is about 23 per cent of their export total. Not as much as 63 per cent, I grant you, but a huge economic hit on a country which will be struggling to find markets post Brexit…and even if it wasn’t.
What a ridiculous assertion, the 23% England sends to Scotland is nowhere near the 63% Scotland sends to England, indeed the fact that only less than half of UK exports go to the EU was the whole reason why it could survive Brexit, 63% is an entirely different proposition
Interesting electoral fact for nerds: the 232 seats Labour won at GE2015 divide almost evenly into those with majorities of below 25% and those above. 117 below, 115 above.
ICM's latest poll had these subsets:
Labour constituencies majority up to 15% Labour constituencies majority over 15% Conservatives constituencies majority up to 10% Conservative constituencies majority over 10%
Do you know what the average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% and likewise the average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% ?
It would be useful to know so as to calculate the swing in different types of constituency.
I don't have that information to hand but I'll try to find out.
Thanks
average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% was 32% average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% was 29.3%
Thanks - that should be very useful if ICM continue giving subsets.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats.
Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.
Only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
It's even clearer when you think about the Irish border question, which they also say should be resolved before they'll discuss a trade deal. How on earth is that supposed to work? We're supposed to agree arrangements on the border without knowing whether there will have to be tariffs and customs checks at the border? Are these people quite sane?
No, we're supposed to agree that tariffs and customs checks are not acceptable, and build any subsequent elements of the deal around that.
In other words, just do what we're told (remain in the Customs Union and the single market) and damn the voters.
Seems you and Ally_B have a lot in common.
Northern Ireland at least should stay in the Customs Union and single market. And once the principle of a differentiated deal is agreed, the SNP swings into gear. It's salami tactics.
Given a majority of Scottish exports go to the rUK they would be hit hard by the inevitable customs duties and border controls that a hypothetical independent Scotland would face and Northern Ireland would face similar problems in exports to rUK and May will quite rightly state that Brexit terms should apply to the whole UK
From Derek Bateman's blog
National Accounts Statistics.... 2015 stats. They appear to show Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK to be £45 billion while imports from rUK to be nearer £51 billion, a difference of £6 billion. As I said, they need us just as much as we need them. Indeed, if you think of England’s exports totalling in the region of £220 billion, then the share they send to Scottish markets is about 23 per cent of their export total. Not as much as 63 per cent, I grant you, but a huge economic hit on a country which will be struggling to find markets post Brexit…and even if it wasn’t.
What a ridiculous assertion, the 23% England sends to Scotland is nowhere near the 63% Scotland sends to England, indeed the fact that only less than half of UK exports go to the EU was the whole reason why it could survive Brexit, 63% is an entirely different proposition
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Right. So the DUP will accept a hard border between the mainland and Norther Ireland?
Interesting electoral fact for nerds: the 232 seats Labour won at GE2015 divide almost evenly into those with majorities of below 25% and those above. 117 below, 115 above.
ICM's latest poll had these subsets:
Labour constituencies majority up to 15% Labour constituencies majority over 15% Conservatives constituencies majority up to 10% Conservative constituencies majority over 10%
Do you know what the average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% and likewise the average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% ?
It would be useful to know so as to calculate the swing in different types of constituency.
I don't have that information to hand but I'll try to find out.
Thanks
average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% was 32% average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% was 29.3%
Thanks - that should be very useful if ICM continue giving subsets.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats.
Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.
Only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
Aren't you forgetting there are/were far more Labour voters to switch in the Labour safe seats than the Tory safe seats? If Labour are e.g. 65% 35% ahead then a 20% movement would bring it down to 52%, 48%. But if Labour were 35%, 65% then the result would be only 28%, 72%.
It's even clearer when you think about the Irish border question, which they also say should be resolved before they'll discuss a trade deal. How on earth is that supposed to work? We're supposed to agree arrangements on the border without knowing whether there will have to be tariffs and customs checks at the border? Are these people quite sane?
No, we're supposed to agree that tariffs and customs checks are not acceptable, and build any subsequent elements of the deal around that.
In other words, just do what we're told (remain in the Customs Union and the single market) and damn the voters.
Seems you and Ally_B have a lot in common.
Northern Ireland at least should stay in the Customs Union and single market. And once the principle of a differentiated deal is agreed, the SNP swings into gear. It's salami tactics.
Given a majority of Scottish exports go to the rUK they would be hit hard by the inevitable customs duties and border controls that a hypothetical independent Scotland would face and Northern Ireland would face similar problems in exports to rUK and May will quite rightly state that Brexit terms should apply to the whole UK
From Derek Bateman's blog
National Accounts Statistics.... 2015 stats. They appear to show Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK to be £45 billion while imports from rUK to be nearer £51 billion, a difference of £6 billion. As I said, they need us just as much as we need them. Indeed, if you think of England’s exports totalling in the region of £220 billion, then the share they send to Scottish markets is about 23 per cent of their export total. Not as much as 63 per cent, I grant you, but a huge economic hit on a country which will be struggling to find markets post Brexit…and even if it wasn’t.
What a ridiculous assertion, the 23% England sends to Scotland is nowhere near the 63% Scotland sends to England, indeed the fact that only less than half of UK exports go to the EU was the whole reason why it could survive Brexit, 63% is an entirely different proposition
It's more than the UK's exports to the USA.
The UK has never been part of the USA and never needed to be in a trading area with it
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Right. So the DUP will accept a hard border between the mainland and Norther Ireland?
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Right. So the DUP will accept a hard border between the mainland and Norther Ireland?
In polls since the first round, abstain-blank-spoil has ranged from 17% to 32%, and vote for Le Pen from 36% to 41%. Correlation (10 polls): r^2 = 0.67.
Interesting electoral fact for nerds: the 232 seats Labour won at GE2015 divide almost evenly into those with majorities of below 25% and those above. 117 below, 115 above.
ICM's latest poll had these subsets:
Labour constituencies majority up to 15% Labour constituencies majority over 15% Conservatives constituencies majority up to 10% Conservative constituencies majority over 10%
Do you know what the average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% and likewise the average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% ?
It would be useful to know so as to calculate the swing in different types of constituency.
I don't have that information to hand but I'll try to find out.
Thanks
average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% was 32% average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% was 29.3%
Thanks - that should be very useful if ICM continue giving subsets.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats.
Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.
Only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
Aren't you forgetting there are/were far more Labour voters to switch in the Labour safe seats than the Tory safe seats? If Labour are e.g. 65% 35% ahead then a 20% movement would bring it down to 52%, 48%. But if Labour were 35%, 65% then the result would be only 28%, 72%.
That's not how electoral swing is calculated.
Its done on absolute numbers not proportional.
So a 20% swing from 65-35 results in 45-55 and a 20% swing from 35-65 results in 15-85.
In this case a Labour lead in their 2015 safe seats of 32% is now by the ICM subset reduced to only 2% ie a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
Interesting electoral fact for nerds: the 232 seats Labour won at GE2015 divide almost evenly into those with majorities of below 25% and those above. 117 below, 115 above.
Do you know what the average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% and likewise the average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% ?
It would be useful to know so as to calculate the swing in different types of constituency.
I don't have that information to hand but I'll try to find out.
Thanks
average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% was 32% average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% was 29.3%
Thanks - that should be very useful if ICM continue giving subsets.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats. Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
Aren't you forgetting there are/were far more Labour voters to switch in the Labour safe seats than the Tory safe seats? If Labour are e.g. 65% 35% ahead then a 20% movement would bring it down to 52%, 48%. But if Labour were 35%, 65% then the result would be only 28%, 72%.
That's not how electoral swing is calculated.
Its done on absolute numbers not proportional.
So a 20% swing from 65-35 results in 45-55 and a 20% swing from 35-65 results in 15-85.
In this case a Labour lead in their 2015 safe seats of 32% is now by the ICM subset reduced to only 2% ie a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
I agree that's how it's done but doesn't that just show the problem with applying uniform swings I asked a related q the other day when the Times applied a 13 percent Tory swing to all Scottish seats and concluded Angus would be an SNP hold. But applying the absolute swing to all seats assumes that the swingers are evenly distributed among constituencies. So Glasgow east toryvote goes from 6% to 19% (tripling) and Angus goes 29% to42%
It doesn't smell right (althoughmathematically it does ensure the votes in each seat still total 100%)
Interesting electoral fact for nerds: the 232 seats Labour won at GE2015 divide almost evenly into those with majorities of below 25% and those above. 117 below, 115 above.
I don't have that information to hand but I'll try to find out.
Thanks
average majority of Labour constituencies which had a majority over 15% was 32% average majority of Conservative constituencies which had a majority over 10% was 29.3%
Thanks - that should be very useful if ICM continue giving subsets.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats. Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
Aren't you forgetting there are/were far more Labour voters to switch in the Labour safe seats than the Tory safe seats? If Labour are e.g. 65% 35% ahead then a 20% movement would bring it down to 52%, 48%. But if Labour were 35%, 65% then the result would be only 28%, 72%.
That's not how electoral swing is calculated.
Its done on absolute numbers not proportional.
So a 20% swing from 65-35 results in 45-55 and a 20% swing from 35-65 results in 15-85.
In this case a Labour lead in their 2015 safe seats of 32% is now by the ICM subset reduced to only 2% ie a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
I agree that's how it's done but doesn't that just show the problem with applying uniform swings I asked a related q the other day when the Times applied a 13 percent Tory swing to all Scottish seats and concluded Angus would be an SNP hold. But applying the absolute swing to all seats assumes that the swingers are evenly distributed among constituencies. So Glasgow east toryvote goes from 6% to 19% (tripling) and Angus goes 29% to42%
It doesn't smell right (althoughmathematically it does ensure the votes in each seat still total 100%)
UNS is not perfect and it was not designed to look at small number. For example, if Labour has 5% in a seat and suffers more than 5% swing, the new number is not negative.
However, where the action is, UNS can be a reasonable guide , particularly, if used regionally.
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Wasn't that the legal opinion the Scottish government has ? Scotland can be in the single market and customs union and still be in the UK.
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Wasn't that the legal opinion the Scottish government has ? Scotland can be in the single market and customs union and still be in the UK.
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Wasn't that the legal opinion the Scottish government has ? Scotland can be in the single market and customs union and still be in the UK.
They actual have the legal opinion this time?
Yes. From the Scottish equivalent of our Attorney General.
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Wasn't that the legal opinion the Scottish government has ? Scotland can be in the single market and customs union and still be in the UK.
They actual have the legal opinion this time?
Yes. From the Scottish equivalent of our Attorney General.
I'm not surprised it's legally possible. But politically? There'd be a customs border between England and Scotland for starters.
In 1997 the Tories, UKIP and the Referendum Party polled 35% between them, the same as Labour in 1992. You wouldn't get that impression from the respective way those two results are always reported: in 1992 Labour is said to have just lost narrowly, whereas in 1997 the right is said to have suffered a terrible defeat. (The LDs were a centrist party in 1992 not a centre-left one IMO).
Quite, which is why WillamGlenn is talking out of his hat.
Not at all. Everyone will want to avoid a premature border poll, and the best way to do that is by granting a special status that effectively kept Northern Ireland in the EU under UK sovereignty. The issues about managing the border with the mainland are for another day.
Wasn't that the legal opinion the Scottish government has ? Scotland can be in the single market and customs union and still be in the UK.
They actual have the legal opinion this time?
Yes. From the Scottish equivalent of our Attorney General.
I've done a Labour defence list with seats where the majority is less than 25% viewable on one page. Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
I've done a Labour defence list with seats where the majority is less than 25% viewable on one page. Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
I've done a Labour defence list with seats where the majority is less than 25% viewable on one page. Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
I've done a Labour defence list with seats where the majority is less than 25% viewable on one page. Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
Andy, what do you think will happen in Labour's closest defenses against UKIP. Will the UKIP vote collapse open up a Tory opportunity, or do you think these seats are fairly safe for Labour?
Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
Ouch!
And thanks!
There are some Labour defence lists already out there but they aren't on one page, you have to scroll up and down. I'm intending to colour them in on election night.
Text size has to be rather small in order to fit them all in.
Ouch!
And thanks!
There are some Labour defence lists already out there but they aren't on one page, you have to scroll up and down. I'm intending to colour them in on election night.
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed.
They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
Comments
Hands up everyone who can still say "our EU friends" with a straight face.
The most recent ICM gives Labour a lead of 2% in safe Labour seats and the Conservatives a lead of 41% in safe Conservative seats.
Which would therefore be a 15% swing in safe Labour seats but only a 6% swing in safe Conservative seats.
Only subsets so must be treated with caution but does back up the other fragmentary evidence that the swing is largest in Labour seats.
Are you on crack or merely stupid?
https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/859179180281536517
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/29/the-cult-of-ed-balls-tells-you-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-hole-that-labour-moderates-are-in/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39766135
The UK government may wish to seek "special status" for Northern Ireland's electricity market after Brexit, a group of MPs has said.
A single electricity market operates across the island of Ireland.
The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee says Brexit "potentially challenges the future viability" of that arrangement.
Its done on absolute numbers not proportional.
So a 20% swing from 65-35 results in 45-55 and a 20% swing from 35-65 results in 15-85.
In this case a Labour lead in their 2015 safe seats of 32% is now by the ICM subset reduced to only 2% ie a 15% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
I asked a related q the other day when the Times applied a 13 percent Tory swing to all Scottish seats and concluded Angus would be an SNP hold. But applying the absolute swing to all seats assumes that the swingers are evenly distributed among constituencies. So Glasgow east toryvote goes from 6% to 19% (tripling) and Angus goes 29% to42%
It doesn't smell right (althoughmathematically it does ensure the votes in each seat still total 100%)
However, where the action is, UNS can be a reasonable guide , particularly, if used regionally.
Oh dear ! This is dynamite.
In other news, Queen Ann has taken a turn for the worse.....
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=0
And thanks!
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed.
They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/