Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.
I think Cameron & Osborne were well clued in on the 'Notting Hill' set - hence 'Hug a Huskie' and 'Batwoman Children Charity' - but for the rest of the country - or the bulk of the Conservative Party it was always de haut en bas. The Conservative members (in general) feel they've got their Party back and May is 'one of them' - Cameron - like Blair - was tolerated because he (nearly) won elections. I think more than a few in Labour feel they've got their Party back too - but are likely facing a radically different outcome.
Depends on what she does. I know a few Tories who are not happy about all the help-the-struggling cap-fuel-prices taxes-might-have-to-go-up stuff.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
What exactly is fake about may? I'm no fan of hers, I find the extent of her popularity a little surprising but it seems there, but I'm not sure what's fake about her, other than acting like she never believed remaining in the EU was the best option.
She cannot act like a normal human being and meet the real public. Something very fishy. She just repeats the same guff parrot fashion again and again.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Salmond biting the dust would be up there with Portillo and Balls, for amusement.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
Maybe the Government could arrange things so that nurses have enough money to use shops just like the rest of us? It's an idea worth considering.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.
Faisal Islam has added to his observation that the top 6 teams are from Remain areas, the bottom 4 from Leave, that the two promoted teams are also from Remain areas.
What is it about Leave that brings such an association.? Maybe a hostility to European football...
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Don't be silly. We will agree to pay X assuming we reach an agreement on everything else. Then we move on to everything else. Negotiation 101
Not really a negotiation if one party's hands are tied, is it, Charles?
People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
Yes, it's certainly a worry that the thought of a large lead in itself serves to moderate opinion. I agree with others that UNS is potentially a bad predictor for this election, with the evidence pointing to the Labour vote holding up in safe seats and no-hope areas but falling sharply where it matters in the marginals. The nearest equivalent is probably 1997, where the majority was larger than the UNS would have predicted.
The talk of large numbers of direct Labour-Tory switches always seemed unlikely, particularly with Labour starting already below 30%. An unpopular Labour might lose votes to tactical voting, abstentions, or to the LibDems directly, but much less likely to the Tories. Whilst a chunk of the UKIP vote is clearly going Tory even the Lab->UKIP->Tory progression is probably overstated. Excluding NI the Tories got about 38% last time; the progressively ageing population is working in their favour and they have clearly recaptured the right-wing part of the ukip vote to get into the mid-40s. What doesn't appear to be happening is Tory remainers deserting May, which could present some of the LibDem shire campaigns with a challenge, pending any boost they might get on Thursday.
Its difficult to see how the Conservatives can get above 45% but its also difficult to see how Labour can get above 30%.
While both may do worse depending upon how many votes they lose to the LibDems.
What will be key will be where the parties get their votes, their voting efficiency. And this is where Labour might suffer - piling up votes in inner cities and university towns while losing them in marginal.
For the Conservatives it looks potentially better - gaining in marginal areas while losing a few in safe shire seats.
BTWE, note that Merkel has re-established a clear lead in Germany. Her CDU is a bit down on the last election, but about 5 points clear of the SPD. Moreover, her traditional coalition partner, the free-market liberal FDP, is clearing the 5% hurdle The far-right AfD is drifting around 8%. Looks like a new CDU-SPD coalition with a couple of extra SPD ministers. An SPD-Green-Left coalition is still within mathematical reach, but looks unlikely to have the convincing majority that a major shift like that would need.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
Maybe the Government could arrange things so that nurses have enough money to use shops just like the rest of us? It's an idea worth considering.
Vast, vast majority of nurses do. Why can't the ones using food banks. Do you have an answer to that question?
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Salmond biting the dust would be up there with Portillo and Balls, for amusement.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Salmond biting the dust would be up there with Portillo and Balls, for amusement.
Interesting polls last night. Probably lots of churn and primarily as a result of Labour doing much of the running in the first few weeks. I think this is an entirely deliberate in terms of a strategy - force Labour to get much of its policy out in the open, then focus on Tory policy and the usual attack lines about Corbyns leadership.
May will win comfortably - the public will not vote for Corbyn as PM. And the gulf in approval ratings between May and Corbyn confirm this.
Worth noting that just because someone is a slick communicator does not mean they are a phony who does not really understand the common people problems. Conversely just because someone is not a slick communicator does not mean they do understand those things or are genuine. And neither is automatically going to be better or worse at providing solutions to those problems.
It is a common trick of the poorer communicator to act like that means you must have substance, and that if someone communicates better than you it means they have style but no substance. Gordon's people pushed this line so hard they undermined him, making his style seem worse in retrospect.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Eh? He's not leader of the SNP, and he's not leader of the SNP in Westminster. He's essentially yesterday's man. Why would you expect a vast amount of coverage of him?
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
Only a tenner of mine, but I guess they're waiting for Parliament to actuallly be dissolved on Tuesday night. It must be theoretically possible for a vote or votes on Monday or Tuesday to cancel the election, and they're not Paddy Power and willing to settle before the result is known to be absolutely certain.
Is it actually possible to postpone the election once Parliament is dissolved?? There must be cases of war or natural disaster where it becomes necessary to postpone at a late stage. The postponement of the 2001 local elections due to Foot and Mouth required primary legislation, how does this work with no MPs?
In that case (1) should be OK to the EU. The issue for them isn't the jurisdiction, it's a commitment from the UK government that the EU citizens will be able to enforce in the future. If the UK government doesn't like the ECJ, it can come up with an alternative arrangement that does the same thing. (2) is a haggle, plain and simple. Pay to play. (3) Northern Ireland is a genuinely open negotiation as both sides work out what's possible.
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.
I think it's both. It's a big issue and a difficult one to resolve. Equivalence isn't good enough for deep and long term relationships. The law and regulation have to be the same and applied in the same way. This has to apply not just to the current regime but unknown future changes to it. The EU is not going to do anything different to accommodate the UK, so how can this common regime be applied consistently without an unacceptable extraterritorial reach into UK domestic law?
The EU reckons it made a big mistake on this with Switzerland so it's not going to repeat it. They are not in an expansive mood towards Britain and Mrs May has done nothing to engender one. I think people in the UK underestimate how much Brexit has damaged confidence in the country. People (not just in the EU) made assumptions about the UK based on its membership of the EU that no longer hold. Mrs May, far from trying to rebuild trust, goes around issuing random threats ...
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
The same amount of leverage we have now - very little.
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
Why not?
They are answerable to their own electorates. All 27 of them.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.
Faisal Islam has added to his observation that the top 6 teams are from Remain areas, the bottom 4 from Leave, that the two promoted teams are also from Remain areas.
What is it about Leave that brings such an association.? Maybe a hostility to European football...
Anyone who is daft enough to believe that Tottenham supporters live in Tottenham really should be confined to plastic cutlery.
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French have high turnouts. It seems they like to vote. This reduces volatility (fewer people who might suddenly decide to get active) and they tend to be pretty steady and consistent in their voting habits. This all makes things easier for their pollsters.
I suspect French pollsters are a bit better too, but that's controversial, so I won't say it.
I wonder if incompetent French pollsters get new business.
There's less need of quality control if you have addicted customers as the British pollsters do.
To be fair, though, I can't really remember any PMQs by anyone. It's internal political drama, family spats that are soon forgotten.
Agreed. I was in the Chamber at most of them for 13 years (sometimes didn't bother). I can remember the odd line (Hague's rueful and endearing resignation comment effectively that he'd won every one and a fat lot of good it had done him) but otherwise meh.
I can only remember one of my own, come to that. Tony Blair had announced some anti-social behaviour initiative tackling lawless adult louts. I said that in Broxtowe we were making good progress in tackling street violence by pensioners, but did he have any policies on teenagers? To be fair he laughed with the rest of the House - hut, typically, I can't remember what the reply was, except that it didn't really say anything.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
Maybe the Government could arrange things so that nurses have enough money to use shops just like the rest of us? It's an idea worth considering.
Perhaps you could tell us how much money nurses should have ?
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
Maybe the Government could arrange things so that nurses have enough money to use shops just like the rest of us? It's an idea worth considering.
Vast, vast majority of nurses do. Why can't the ones using food banks. Do you have an answer to that question?
You nasty arsehole, people use foodbanks because they are starving. You have to be sent there by a recognised organisation you cannot just turn up and fill your bag.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.
Faisal Islam has added to his observation that the top 6 teams are from Remain areas, the bottom 4 from Leave, that the two promoted teams are also from Remain areas.
What is it about Leave that brings such an association.? Maybe a hostility to European football...
Must be something to do with word association football, as Monty Python once said.
May will win comfortably - the public will not vote for Corbyn as PM. And the gulf in approval ratings between May and Corbyn confirm this.
Yes, probably. Bit it seems labour itself will remain in a position allowing recovery at least, far from where last week's absurdly high tory scores suggested.
More importantly it means tory chances of taking the hull seats are less than thought, and I have fivers on at 66/1 on those. GodDamn stubborn labour vote is going to stop me winning over 600 quid.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
You don't see much of Salmond in this campaign
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
Eh? He's not leader of the SNP, and he's not leader of the SNP in Westminster. He's essentially yesterday's man. Why would you expect a vast amount of coverage of him?
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French have high turnouts. It seems they like to vote. This reduces volatility (fewer people who might suddenly decide to get active) and they tend to be pretty steady and consistent in their voting habits. This all makes things easier for their pollsters.
I suspect French pollsters are a bit better too, but that's controversial, so I won't say it.
I wonder if incompetent French pollsters get new business.
There's less need of quality control if you have addicted customers as the British pollsters do.
On the other hand the winner of the French contest was new on the scene (as far as presidential contests are concerned) and with a new brand and no established political party. And the ups and downs of the last year - for example Fillon (or Juppe, the PB 'hot tip' last year) - have been considerable. I don't see how Peter can suggest this is less volatile than our position, which so far has moved only a smidgin since 2015, with only the shift of UKIP to Tory?
Marr challenged her on her robotic repetitions and she laughed it off, quite successfully, while STILL managing to repeat "strong and stable". Win for TMay, there.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
+1
Why on Earth do the left object to wanting to feed the hungry, except to make some sick political point? It's a mark of a good society that we wish to help those less fortunate than ourselves.
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
Only a tenner of mine, but I guess they're waiting for Parliament to actuallly be dissolved on Tuesday night. It must be theoretically possible for a vote or votes on Monday or Tuesday to cancel the election, and they're not Paddy Power and willing to settle before the result is known to be absolutely certain.
Is it actually possible to postpone the election once Parliament is dissolved?? There must be cases of war or natural disaster where it becomes necessary to postpone at a late stage. The postponement of the 2001 local elections due to Foot and Mouth required primary legislation, how does this work with no MPs?
I believe since 2016 PP owns Betfair. Since 2015 Ladbrokes owns Coral. There are other examples.
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I think she is very adept and self assured. Whether she will have a mini disaster is yet unproven. It's blindingly obvious the difference between Mrs May and Corbyn, and the voters know it too.
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I think she is very adept and self assured. Whether she will have a mini disaster is yet unproven. It's blindingly obvious the difference between Mrs May and Corbyn, and the voters know it too.
Whatever his flaws, Corbyn at least comes across as a human being.
@gabyhinsliffMarr: Do you think gay sex is a sin. May; no. (Quite aggressively, assertively no).
To someone who takes Christianity seriously, wouldn't heterosexual sex outside of marriage also be a sin? (If Gay sex was)
Lack of specificity in the question means someone could believe many different things when answering yes or no, but at least the general interpretation was clear.
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Don't be silly. We will agree to pay X assuming we reach an agreement on everything else. Then we move on to everything else. Negotiation 101
Correct. The EU require us to commit to a definite X if the deal goes ahead. Mrs May's "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is actually in the EU guidelines.
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I think she is very adept and self assured. Whether she will have a mini disaster is yet unproven. It's blindingly obvious the difference between Mrs May and Corbyn, and the voters know it too.
Whatever his flaws, Corbyn at least comes across as a human being.
I've never seen a politician who didn't, the criticism of some politicians, who don't do a lot to earn sympathy usually, is pretty silly. May seems, seems at least, competent but a bit awkward as a person, Corbyn seems passionate though a little obsessive.
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Peston is a butt licker though , he is a real lightweight.
Marr challenged her on her robotic repetitions and she laughed it off, quite successfully, while STILL managing to repeat "strong and stable". Win for TMay, there.
Strong and stable reminds me of the currency question during the Scottish referendum. When first deployed by the No side it was extremely potent. But No did not move beyond that and it eventually became a negative as it encapsulated its paucity of positive ideas. The big difference, of course, is that No was up against very skilled politicians. May isn't, so she will get away with it. But she could well be creating hostages to fortune for the future. As I was saying yesterday, her very safe, no engagement with voters strategy is a missed opportunity to build up a level of goodwill that she could well need further down the line.
Didn't see kim Jong may but i am going to guess she was "strong and stable" it in human language boring ?
You don't need to see her , it is same robotic performance and pathetic mantra every time. Any moron being taken in by her dire performances needs to see a Doctor and quick.
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Peston is a butt licker though , he is a real lightweight.
To be fair he is letting a converation take place, a bit like Sophy on Sunday, but in complete contrast with Marr who interupts all the time
I am finding it tiresome that people are surprised that a slogan is being repeated to the point of irritation. What a startling innovation that is, never seen politicans stick to a script before.
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
Only a tenner of mine, but I guess they're waiting for Parliament to actuallly be dissolved on Tuesday night. It must be theoretically possible for a vote or votes on Monday or Tuesday to cancel the election, and they're not Paddy Power and willing to settle before the result is known to be absolutely certain.
Is it actually possible to postpone the election once Parliament is dissolved?? There must be cases of war or natural disaster where it becomes necessary to postpone at a late stage. The postponement of the 2001 local elections due to Foot and Mouth required primary legislation, how does this work with no MPs?
I believe since 2016 PP owns Betfair. Since 2015 Ladbrokes owns Coral. There are other examples.
Indeed so. PP will always be remembered for losing millions on the US election by paying out on Clinton four weeks early.
Betfair exchange is a very different business, I imagine they'd be a lot of trouble if they screwed up the next election year market again (having voided it in 2011 with the passing of the FTPA and seriously annoyed a lot of punters including OGH who'd bet on 2015). If they settled and things changed in the interim they could be open to being sued, despite their Ts&Cs.
Marr challenged her on her robotic repetitions and she laughed it off, quite successfully, while STILL managing to repeat "strong and stable". Win for TMay, there.
If Corbyn hasn't resigned by 9.00 pm on the 9th a new party will have formed from the rump of the now defunct Labour party leaving the man himself to soldier on with his small band of Momentumites. They could call themselves 'Corbynistas Under New Transitional Structure' with the acronym CUNTS
Already taken by the Conservative & Unionist Nationalist Tories (Scotland).
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Peston is a butt licker though , he is a real lightweight.
To be fair he is letting a converation take place, a bit like Sophy on Sunday, but in complete contrast with Marr who interupts all the time
G, I think you mean he is letting her say what she wants and not asking questions like a real interviewer , Marr for all his faults has some clue what it means to interview a politician and it is not letting them ramble unhindered through their propaganda.
Marr challenged her on her robotic repetitions and she laughed it off, quite successfully, while STILL managing to repeat "strong and stable". Win for TMay, there.
Strong and stable reminds me of the currency question during the Scottish referendum. When first deployed by the No side it was extremely potent. But No did not move beyond that and it eventually became a negative as it encapsulated its paucity of positive ideas. The big difference, of course, is that No was up against very skilled politicians. May isn't, so she will get away with it. But she could well be creating hostages to fortune for the future. As I was saying yesterday, her very safe, no engagement with voters strategy is a missed opportunity to build up a level of goodwill that she could well need further down the line.
Yes, it doesn't seem sustainable over this very long campaign, and notably hasn't worked over the last week.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
Are you telling us the collars and cuffs don't match Malcy?
The interupt-aton tactics of Marr and Evan Davis are really annoying and actually you learn nothing about the interviewee. The best approach is being well briefed and let them dig a hole with pertinent questions at the right time, but that requires you to be really on top of your brief which most talking heads aren't. They instead prep something they think will be uncomfortable for the interviewee and then try and hammer that.
I am finding it tiresome that people are surprised that a slogan is being repeated to the point of irritation. What a startling innovation that is, never seen politicans stick to a script before.
None as bad as this , it really is Dalek strategy , everything based on one vacuous line that is just pure bollox. We are neither strong nor stable , it is pure fantasy.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Don't be silly. We will agree to pay X assuming we reach an agreement on everything else. Then we move on to everything else. Negotiation 101
Correct. The EU require us to commit to a definite X if the deal goes ahead. Mrs May's "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is actually in the EU guidelines.
Which is why the EU want two separate, consecutive negotiations, the first on the 'divorce bill' and the second on the trade deal. They don't want the bill to be help up by trying to keep everyone happy on trade. Their separating of the two is why there will be no deal.
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Peston is a butt licker though , he is a real lightweight.
To be fair he is letting a converation take place, a bit like Sophy on Sunday, but in complete contrast with Marr who interupts all the time
G, I think you mean he is letting her say what she wants and not asking questions like a real interviewer , Marr for all his faults has some clue what it means to interview a politician and it is not letting them ramble unhindered through their propaganda.
There is a balance to be struck there, but better they learn to handle interruptions than can rattle off points unchallenged. That's what PPBs are for.
The interupt-aton tactics of Marr and Evan Davis are really annoying and actually you learn nothing about the interviewee. The best approach is being well briefed and let them dig a hole with pertinent questions at the right time, but that requires you to be really on top of your brief which most talking heads aren't. They instead prep something they think will be uncomfortable for the interviewee and then try and hammer that.
Yes, just letting the interviewee talk can be a very good tactic.
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I would expect that as soon as the election is out of the way, the government will have to start conditioning us to expect the rough seas to come. The political event of 2017 will probably turn out to be the Budget in the autumn.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French polls were stunningly accurate, in a situation of four-party geographically divergent and relatively fluid competition that I would have thought more difficult to poll than the UK?
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?
I agree entirely. Our pollsters seek to fix bad sampling with aggressive weighting; the weights are invariably wrong and adjusted after each election.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
Maybe the Government could arrange things so that nurses have enough money to use shops just like the rest of us? It's an idea worth considering.
And maybe if a Labour Govt. from 1997 to 2010 had made some provision for an NHS facing an ageing population AND a huge increase in population from its policy of open borders, the current Govt. might not have inherited quite such a long list of issues to address....
Theresa on Peston is actually quite a bit better than she was on Marr. More conversational and very knowledgeable. Also no VAT increases plus confirmed increase in state pensions but on different calculation.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Peston is a butt licker though , he is a real lightweight.
To be fair he is letting a converation take place, a bit like Sophy on Sunday, but in complete contrast with Marr who interupts all the time
G, I think you mean he is letting her say what she wants and not asking questions like a real interviewer , Marr for all his faults has some clue what it means to interview a politician and it is not letting them ramble unhindered through their propaganda.
Not really Malc - it is a genuine interview and to be fair, he did the same with John McDonnell who confirmed labour with actually become the TUC in power with collective bargaining across all sectors, resulting in the demise of the car industry
I am finding it tiresome that people are surprised that a slogan is being repeated to the point of irritation. What a startling innovation that is, never seen politicans stick to a script before.
None as bad as this , it really is Dalek strategy , everything based on one vacuous line that is just pure bollox. We are neither strong nor stable , it is pure fantasy.
I presumed it was an aspiration - we want strong and stable, not we ate strong and stable. Maybe I haven't been paying attention, it gets hard to keep track of sometimes.
But truth is 99 times out if a hundred we know what party mouthpieces will say. Maybe the extent of monotony is notable, but it's a question of degree only, I cannot get too worked up.
Re boring slogan...They are just using Tony Blair tactic. It is boring for the media, but Remember most people only have a passing watch of the news and don't follow the ins and outs of things. In the past the Tories has been really bad for not focusing on bashing a single issue instead trying to pitch a more indepth message.
In most peoples opinion on here it is tiresome but remember at last GE what cut through was none of the complex policy stuff it was in SNP pocket and the no more money left letter. Cameron deployed those at every single stop in the last two weeks of the GE.
Cancer specialist blames SNP as NHS ‘heads for a precipice’ We may have lost the chance to put health on a sustainable footing, says Anna Gregor, as poll shows most voters believe service is worse Dr Anna Gregor, formerly Scotland’s lead cancer clinician, has launched a scathing attack on the SNP government — claiming that “pork-barrel politics of the highest order” has left the NHS “hurtling over a precipice”.
Extra funding made available by the UK government to Scotland under the Barnett formula whenever it increased health investment in England was not put into the NHS in Scotland in the form of so-called “consequentials” after the SNP came to power, she said.
The interupt-aton tactics of Marr and Evan Davis are really annoying and actually you learn nothing about the interviewee. The best approach is being well briefed and let them dig a hole with pertinent questions at the right time, but that requires you to be really on top of your brief which most talking heads aren't. They instead prep something they think will be uncomfortable for the interviewee and then try and hammer that.
See Andrew Neil for details. He clearly spends hours researching his interviewees and keeping abreast of current affairs, and - unlike the politicians he interviews - he probably does most of the work himself like the traditional print journalist that he was.
Sadly he's 68 years old next month and will probably retire soon, which will be a huge loss to British politics.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
LOl - either you don't know your history or you are engaged in a major spin attempt.
Remember Corbyn hates what he sees as imperialism - he hates us, America and Israel but is ok with Hamas and Iranian press tv.
Strange if Corbyn was such a man of peace he didn't talk to all sides in the conflict eh?
"Strong and Stable" is what the country needs though. Brexit is quite tumultuous, as is the prospect of another once in a generation Scottish referendum. So although it is boring, it is true
The interupt-aton tactics of Marr and Evan Davis are really annoying and actually you learn nothing about the interviewee. The best approach is being well briefed and let them dig a hole with pertinent questions at the right time, but that requires you to be really on top of your brief which most talking heads aren't. They instead prep something they think will be uncomfortable for the interviewee and then try and hammer that.
Yes, just letting the interviewee talk can be a very good tactic.
The best take down of nick griffin was not the shout-athon QT, it was iain dale. He let Griffin talk then asked him some really cutting questions that weren't so your a racist aren't you (which griffin spent his life preparing for). Griffin died on his arse so so badly as his nonsense policies were totally exposed.
Re boring slogan...They are just using Tony Blair tactic. It is boring for the media, but Remember most people only have a passing watch of the news and don't follow the ins and outs of things. In the past the Tories has been really bad for not focusing on bashing a single issue instead trying to pitch a more indepth message.
In most peoples opinion on here it is tiresome but remember at last GE what cut through was none of the complex policy stuff it was in SNP pocket and the no more money left letter. Cameron deployed those at every single stop in the last two weeks of the GE.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
I was a child in the Seventies and Eighties, so remember the IRA bombing campaign well. My dad was working half a mile from the Birmingham pub bombing. My response to the Tories going big on it is that I do not want the killings restarting. Peace in Ireland is one way Britain has really improved over the decades.
Bigging up the events of that era risks an already precarious situation in NI. For May to do that she would be risking the long term of our country for a short term political cheap shot. It would very likely rebound against her. It is a period of our history that should be laid to rest.
I know your feelings about the tories is colouring your posts of late.
The character and world views of a man who would lead our country are important are they not?
May is undoubtedly on top of her brief. That is the worry. She knows what is coming and is a wise enough politician to ensure that she does nothing to alert voters to that fact.
I think she is very adept and self assured. Whether she will have a mini disaster is yet unproven. It's blindingly obvious the difference between Mrs May and Corbyn, and the voters know it too.
Whatever his flaws, Corbyn at least comes across as a human being.
So he does. We can even assign him, with high confidence, to a specific subset of human beings - he is a nasty, vindictive, self-important and not over-bright old man.
Seriously, what human being doesn't come across as one? I can only think of Michael Jackson, who is no longer with us, and Tim Farron who is a Thunderbirds puppet. So it isn't a very interesting claim.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
"Strong and Stable" is what the country needs though. Brexit is quite tumultuous, as is the prospect of another once in a generation Scottish referendum. So although it is boring, it is true
Oh on a choice between may and Corbyn it's no choice at all, even though I'm not impressed by may at all.
But on these polls she won't have quite as much stability to act as the dreamers thought, as loads of people are just fine with Corbyn, since he will stI'll be in opposition.
To what extent do people think the Tory manifesto will have a Mayesque stamp on it?
Her most impressive day as PM so far was her first one - her Downing Street speech was really good, suggesting a warmer Tory tone and not insignificant change of direction
But she has frankly been a moderate let down since then, doing very little.
Floating voters (!) need reassurance on school funding, the NHS's future etc., the glib answers so far really don't cut it. Relying on labour's crapness could be enough, but I am hoping for quite a lot more. :-/
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.
Good job Nissan is in Washington which is not really Sunderland anyway.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
I was a child in the Seventies and Eighties, so remember the IRA bombing campaign well. My dad was working half a mile from the Birmingham pub bombing. My response to the Tories going big on it is that I do not want the killings restarting. Peace in Ireland is one way Britain has really improved over the decades.
Bigging up the events of that era risks an already precarious situation in NI. For May to do that she would be risking the long term of our country for a short term political cheap shot. It would very likely rebound against her. It is a period of our history that should be laid to rest.
I know your feelings about the tories is colouring your posts of late.
The character and world views of a man who would lead our country are important are they not?
Particularly when his main appeal is he never wavers in his views.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
Corbyn was their cheerleader.
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.
As I said earlier - you are comparing apples and pears - I rather suspect you know it too.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
LOl - either you don't know your history or you are engaged in a major spin attempt.
Remember Corbyn hates what he sees as imperialism - he hates us, America and Israel but is ok with Hamas and Iranian press tv.
Strange if Corbyn was such a man of peace he didn't talk to all sides in the conflict eh?
I don't think it's as bad as that. He has a very old fashioned view, grounded by his party's history and ethos, of politics as the collective class struggle of the oppressed against the powerful. This view of the world no longer fits the reality of the more complex societies of western democracies; Corbyn finds it reassuring to go round the world finding places where his view of things still appears to have some relevance.
"Strong and Stable" is what the country needs though. Brexit is quite tumultuous, as is the prospect of another once in a generation Scottish referendum. So although it is boring, it is true
Oh on a choice between may and Corbyn it's no choice at all, even though I'm not impressed by may at all.
But on these polls she won't have quite as much stability to act as the dreamers thought, as loads of people are just fine with Corbyn, since he will stI'll be in opposition.
It's a fine balance. Too big a majority is bad for the country, so is too small a one (both for getting stuff done but also jahadi jez might stay on and that boil won't be lanced). 50-60 seems good to me.
Interesting to see the latest You Gov has Labour back to its 2015 vote share and the Con lead reduced to 13% -a blip or a trend?
I think mid teens is plausible. The really big leads emerged just before the GE announcement for no reason, the the announcement sustained a boost, and now we're back on solid ground.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
Are you telling us the collars and cuffs don't match Malcy?
I am saying Carlotta is a very desperate person , how low can a Tory stoop. She want Sturgeon burned at eth stake for visiting the hairdressers, what a dinosaur.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.
That's true and probably the best guide to where to spend your betting funds. The polls don't have to be wrong of course. People's opinions could be all over the place at the moment. I know mine are.
The interupt-aton tactics of Marr and Evan Davis are really annoying and actually you learn nothing about the interviewee. The best approach is being well briefed and let them dig a hole with pertinent questions at the right time, but that requires you to be really on top of your brief which most talking heads aren't. They instead prep something they think will be uncomfortable for the interviewee and then try and hammer that.
Yes, just letting the interviewee talk can be a very good tactic.
Not if it is just pap, you have to at least ensure they do not get away with lies throughout
May - I want to get out and about and meet people from all sorts of communities.
(Starting when?)
That is her reason for no TV debates.
She managed to say it with a straight face.
Yes. It was a total lie, AND ridiculous, yet she brazenly said it without blushing. She's more devious and mendacious than she appears. Not sure if that's good or bad.
I would love to see some evidence for this "TMay won't meet the public" meme - it has come from nowhere, it is universally believed, and it is the "John Major tucks his shirt into his underpants" de nos jours. Someone here linked to some pics of her among what looked like genuinely random members of the public yesterday, and I can't recall seeing similar pictures of JC ever. So why do people think it's true?
Comments
He must be desperately trying to cling onto his seat
https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/858567619363958784
@gabyhinsliff Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin. May; no. (Quite aggressively, assertively no).
What is it about Leave that brings such an association.? Maybe a hostility to European football...
While both may do worse depending upon how many votes they lose to the LibDems.
What will be key will be where the parties get their votes, their voting efficiency. And this is where Labour might suffer - piling up votes in inner cities and university towns while losing them in marginal.
For the Conservatives it looks potentially better - gaining in marginal areas while losing a few in safe shire seats.
May will win comfortably - the public will not vote for Corbyn as PM. And the gulf in approval ratings between May and Corbyn confirm this.
It is a common trick of the poorer communicator to act like that means you must have substance, and that if someone communicates better than you it means they have style but no substance. Gordon's people pushed this line so hard they undermined him, making his style seem worse in retrospect.
Is it actually possible to postpone the election once Parliament is dissolved?? There must be cases of war or natural disaster where it becomes necessary to postpone at a late stage. The postponement of the 2001 local elections due to Foot and Mouth required primary legislation, how does this work with no MPs?
The EU reckons it made a big mistake on this with Switzerland so it's not going to repeat it. They are not in an expansive mood towards Britain and Mrs May has done nothing to engender one. I think people in the UK underestimate how much Brexit has damaged confidence in the country. People (not just in the EU) made assumptions about the UK based on its membership of the EU that no longer hold. Mrs May, far from trying to rebuild trust, goes around issuing random threats ...
There's less need of quality control if you have addicted customers as the British pollsters do.
I can only remember one of my own, come to that. Tony Blair had announced some anti-social behaviour initiative tackling lawless adult louts. I said that in Broxtowe we were making good progress in tackling street violence by pensioners, but did he have any policies on teenagers? To be fair he laughed with the rest of the House - hut, typically, I can't remember what the reply was, except that it didn't really say anything.
More importantly it means tory chances of taking the hull seats are less than thought, and I have fivers on at 66/1 on those. GodDamn stubborn labour vote is going to stop me winning over 600 quid.
Why on Earth do the left object to wanting to feed the hungry, except to make some sick political point? It's a mark of a good society that we wish to help those less fortunate than ourselves.
I do think she is needing the manifesto published
Betfair exchange is a very different business, I imagine they'd be a lot of trouble if they screwed up the next election year market again (having voided it in 2011 with the passing of the FTPA and seriously annoyed a lot of punters including OGH who'd bet on 2015). If they settled and things changed in the interim they could be open to being sued, despite their Ts&Cs.
Are you telling us the collars and cuffs don't match Malcy?
https://twitter.com/pestononsunday/status/858614312348262400
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/858607367549706240
(Starting when?)
That is her reason for no TV debates.
She managed to say it with a straight face.
But truth is 99 times out if a hundred we know what party mouthpieces will say. Maybe the extent of monotony is notable, but it's a question of degree only, I cannot get too worked up.
In most peoples opinion on here it is tiresome but remember at last GE what cut through was none of the complex policy stuff it was in SNP pocket and the no more money left letter. Cameron deployed those at every single stop in the last two weeks of the GE.
We may have lost the chance to put health on a sustainable footing, says Anna Gregor, as poll shows most voters believe service is worse
Dr Anna Gregor, formerly Scotland’s lead cancer clinician, has launched a scathing attack on the SNP government — claiming that “pork-barrel politics of the highest order” has left the NHS “hurtling over a precipice”.
Extra funding made available by the UK government to Scotland under the Barnett formula whenever it increased health investment in England was not put into the NHS in Scotland in the form of so-called “consequentials” after the SNP came to power, she said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cancer-specialist-blames-snp-as-nhs-heads-for-a-precipice-nqzdrjnn2
Sadly he's 68 years old next month and will probably retire soon, which will be a huge loss to British politics.
Remember Corbyn hates what he sees as imperialism - he hates us, America and Israel but is ok with Hamas and Iranian press tv.
Strange if Corbyn was such a man of peace he didn't talk to all sides in the conflict eh?
Ed Miliband was repetitive!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jlTggc0uBA8
The character and world views of a man who would lead our country are important are they not?
Seriously, what human being doesn't come across as one? I can only think of Michael Jackson, who is no longer with us, and Tim Farron who is a Thunderbirds puppet. So it isn't a very interesting claim.
But on these polls she won't have quite as much stability to act as the dreamers thought, as loads of people are just fine with Corbyn, since he will stI'll be in opposition.
Her most impressive day as PM so far was her first one - her Downing Street speech was really good, suggesting a warmer Tory tone and not insignificant change of direction
But she has frankly been a moderate let down since then, doing very little.
Floating voters (!) need reassurance on school funding, the NHS's future etc., the glib answers so far really don't cut it. Relying on labour's crapness could be enough, but I am hoping for quite a lot more. :-/
As I said earlier - you are comparing apples and pears - I rather suspect you know it too.