1. Labour is not going to do as well as at the last two elections; however, I also believe that it has a large residual core, and that most of the habit/cultural loyalty voters who haven't already peeled off will stick with the party. They'll probably tramp down to the polling stations and vote for it, and even if they don't they'll abstain. I reckon that puts Labour's final result in a narrow band around about 26%; they might do marginally better, i.e. Michael Foot better, or marginaly worse, but they're not going to drop like a stone to 20%. There aren't any strong left-leaning alternatives to mop up the extra votes. 2. The Conservatives will ship a few Europhiles to the Liberal Democrats, but ought to mop up most of what's left of Labour's swing voters to compensate. Other than that, the rest of the 2015 Tory vote will stay put: they have nowhere else to go. Meanwhile... 3. Ukip will shed somewhere between a third and a half of its 2015 vote to the Tories. Now that Brexit has been accomplished, I predict that many Ukip voters will see the party's job as finished and swing behind Mrs May, expecting EU withdrawal to be delivered. I also think that some of the ex-Labour Ukip vote will like her repositioning of the Tory Party, and compare both her and her party with Corbyn and the current state of Labour, and make the switch. Ukip won't die, because people who distrust May over the extent of her commitment to Brexit will stick with it for the time being, and because it also appeals to much the same demographic of poorer, social conservative working class voters, who are wavering in their support of Labour or have abandoned it completely, as did the BNP. Consequently... 4. Ukip ought to hold on to no less than half its vote in whatever fraction of seats it continues to contest, and the boost created by other Ukip voters moving to the Conservatives will ensure that they finish the election somewhere in the low-to-mid 40s. My central forecast would be 43% for the Conservatives and probably, allowing for failure to contest a proportion of seats, about 5% for Ukip.
Not bad reasoning but sadly your figures do not add up
Con 43 Lab 26 LD 11 Green 3 Nats 7 UKIP 5
Who gets the other 5%
2% would be Northern Ireland. The speaker and the rainbow of fringe parties must account for another 1%? Then rounding error.
A quick check is the rule of 92/3
Con + Lab + LD + Green + UKIP summed through to 91.7 last time.
Seeing as the SNP will drop back a touch and Plaid will go forward, I make it ~92.5 for the "main" full UK parties.
So check that you sum through to 92 or 93 for Con + Lab + LD + Green + UKIP
In England I think Corbyn already has most of that USP, and there is no sign of any green uptick. In Scotland I guess being pro-Indy lefties may give them a small edge over their rUK counterparts?
I meant Scotland only (there are separate Green parties for all four parts of the UK). Sorry if that wasn't clear.
It is true that a lot of Green voters in England last time will surely leak to Labour - it seems very likely Brighton Pavilion will go. That was of course NPXMP's excuse for voting for Corbyn, as he feared the Greens were costing them seats.
The only small problem with his logic is that the minuscule Green vote is vastly outnumbered by the huge coterie who would rather remove their genitals with two bricks than vote for a party led by Corbyn. He was warned about this at the time!
All this talk about the cost of the triple lock and having to abandon the 2.5% bit of it, yet if we are heading towards a higher inflation world, dropping the 2.5% bit isn't going to save a penny.
Who wants to make pensioners living solely on the state pension poorer again? That isn't meant to be the aim.
The problem is that company and public sector pension schemes produced a vast excess for those born between about 1930 and 1965 followed by a deficit for those born later in the 20th. C. and still in the middle of their working lives. As a result, some older pensioners, now aged 80 or so are much better off than their children, now 50.
No, the problem is that the ageing population means that all pension arrangements are costing more, and that the government's response so far has been to try and save money solely by retarding the payment age.
And I don't think the issue is the wealth difference between pensioners and those aged 50, the latter being at the tail end of the generation who benefited from access to DB pensions and an affordable but rising housing market. The issue is the difference between both the 80- and 50-year olds and those aged 20 or 30.
If lifespan rises from 80 to 88, but pension age rises from 62.5 (i.e., when women retired at 60, men at 65) to 68, there is little problem.
Before: People of working age 20-62.5 (42.5 years) pay for those aged 62.5-80 (17.5 years). Ratio = 17.5/42.5 = 0.412.
After: People of working age 20-68 (48 years) pay for those aged 68-88 (20 years). Ratio = 20/48 = 0.416.
If people start living to 98-100, as they might soon do in Japan and Korea, adjust all over again.
Omits the unfortunate people who die before age 62.5 or 68. But likely to be a fairly accurate comparison.
Con: 385-390 (i.e. a majority of 120-130; not too far off UNS based on the above percentages, factoring in an allowance for exceptional gains in Leave-leaning/strong Ukip areas in the North slightly outweighing extra Labour holds in Remain-leaning London marginals) Lab: 170-175 (just shy of UNS, for the same reasons) SNP: 45-50 (shedding a couple of seats to the Lib Dems, and a small handful to the Tories) Lib Dem: 10-15 (gains in a handful of Remain-leaning marginals plus a couple of seats in Scotland, likely tempered by a small number of losses to the Tories).
I waver on the Lab score. I'd put them at slightly more if the current situation is where we end up, but I think staying above 200 would be very difficult and an excellent result all things considered, a Cat Smith might say. LDs look about right.
Re: SNP - depends on extent of Conservative recovery. My UNS estimate put the SNP at 50, but I fancy the Conservatives to do marginally better (and, consequently, the SNP just a little worse) due to the fact that the Tories ought to outperform in the far South and the North East, and underperform in much of the rest of the country. If pushed for an exact figure for the SNP, I'd go for 48 - but it's just a guessing game, isn't it?
UNS based on my central estimate of vote share puts Labour just under 185, and I've nudged them down a little for reasons previously described.
The other thing to look for is the size of the Green vote. They may be highly attractive to the ideologically pure, pro-independence far left who are not thrilled with the SNP's government record. It's hard to imagine them taking many (edit - that was meant to be 'any') seats particularly as most of their vote will surely be in Glasgow but if they're on 5% or more across Scotland it's easy to see them tipping 5/6 seats over the edge.
I thought the Scottish green vote was typically concentrated in the wealthier, younger and more educated areas - ie, edinburgh, not glasgow.
At least that's how I remember it looking when I dug into the data in 2014/15.
Which scottish seats are likely to have the highest green vote this time around?
Re: SNP - depends on extent of Conservative recovery. My UNS estimate put the SNP at 50, but I fancy the Conservatives to do marginally better (and, consequently, the SNP just a little worse) due to the fact that the Tories ought to outperform in the far South and the North East, and underperform in much of the rest of the country. If pushed for an exact figure for the SNP, I'd go for 48 - but it's just a guessing game, isn't it?
UNS based on my central estimate of vote share puts Labour just under 185, and I've nudged them down a little for reasons previously described.
The other thing to look for is the size of the Green vote. They may be highly attractive to the ideologically pure, pro-independence far left who are not thrilled with the SNP's government record. It's hard to imagine them taking many (edit - that was meant to be 'any') seats particularly as most of their vote will surely be in Glasgow but if they're on 5% or more across Scotland it's easy to see them tipping 5/6 seats over the edge.
The Greens are a very marginal factor: I don't fancy the English & Welsh party to do as well as last time in terms of vote share, but they'll still outperform the Scottish party comfortably - just as happened the last time around.
The Scottish Green Party is effectively a Hard Left fringe companion to the SNP, as you correctly suggest. The bulk of their vote is well-used to voting tactically at constituency level from Holyrood elections, and will do just the same in this vote and back the SNP. I can only imagine them making any difference in any seat in the event of a virtual dead heat between the two leading parties.
The Greens' profile is up since a good performance in the Scottish Parliament election last year - when they overtook the Lib Dems by one seat - but even so, my round figure estimate of 2% for the Green vote may still be a touch on the generous side.
In England I think Corbyn already has most of that USP, and there is no sign of any green uptick. In Scotland I guess being pro-Indy lefties may give them a small edge over their rUK counterparts?
I meant Scotland only (there are separate Green parties for all four parts of the UK). Sorry if that wasn't clear.
It is true that a lot of Green voters in England last time will surely leak to Labour - it seems very likely Brighton Pavilion will go. That was of course NPXMP's excuse for voting for Corbyn, as he feared the Greens were costing them seats.
The only small problem with his logic is that the minuscule Green vote is vastly outnumbered by the huge coterie who would rather remove their genitals with two bricks than vote for a party led by Corbyn. He was warned about this at the time!
I'd expect the combination of Lucas's profile and pleasant character, tacit support from Brighton LibDems and Corbyn repelling people from Labour would make Caroline a fairly safe hold? Brighton gains in profile from having her as (one of) its representative, after all.
Con: 385-390 (i.e. a majority of 120-130; not too far off UNS based on the above percentages, factoring in an allowance for exceptional gains in Leave-leaning/strong Ukip areas in the North slightly outweighing extra Labour holds in Remain-leaning London marginals) Lab: 170-175 (just shy of UNS, for the same reasons) SNP: 45-50 (shedding a couple of seats to the Lib Dems, and a small handful to the Tories) Lib Dem: 10-15 (gains in a handful of Remain-leaning marginals plus a couple of seats in Scotland, likely tempered by a small number of losses to the Tories).
I waver on the Lab score. I'd put them at slightly more if the current situation is where we end up, but I think staying above 200 would be very difficult and an excellent result all things considered, a Cat Smith might say. LDs look about right.
Re: SNP - depends on extent of Conservative recovery. My UNS estimate put the SNP at 50, but I fancy the Conservatives to do marginally better (and, consequently, the SNP just a little worse) due to the fact that the Tories ought to outperform in the far South and the North East, and underperform in much of the rest of the country. If pushed for an exact figure for the SNP, I'd go for 48 - but it's just a guessing game, isn't it?
UNS based on my central estimate of vote share puts Labour just under 185, and I've nudged them down a little for reasons previously described.
The other thing to look for is the size of the Green vote. They may be highly attractive to the ideologically pure, pro-independence far left who are not thrilled with the SNP's government record. It's hard to imagine them taking many (edit - that was meant to be 'any') seats particularly as most of their vote will surely be in Glasgow but if they're on 5% or more across Scotland it's easy to see them tipping 5/6 seats over the edge.
I thought the Scottish green vote was typically concentrated in the wealthier, younger and more educated areas - ie, edinburgh, not glasgow.
At least that's how I remember it looking when I dug into the data in 2014/15.
Which scottish seats are likely to have the highest green vote this time around?
I'll take your word for it. I thought Glasgow more probable than Edinburgh for a number of long and tedious reasons to do with the way each city seems to view itself but I could easily be wrong.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
Nurses starting pay is 23k a year plus overtime. If anyone on that salary can't live without using foodbanks it's certainly not the governments fault. Why should question just apply to nurses it should apply to anyone on that salary that uses foodbanks?
Voters lose faith in SNP record on domestic issues, poll shows Voters have become increasingly disillusioned with Nicola Sturgeon’s record on key domestic issues — including her high-profile efforts to improve Scottish education — according to a new poll.
In findings which could have a significant impact on her party’s performance in June’s general election, the YouGov poll found that the first minister has so far failed to persuade voters that her government is solving the country’s problems on health, the economy and education.
In England I think Corbyn already has most of that USP, and there is no sign of any green uptick. In Scotland I guess being pro-Indy lefties may give them a small edge over their rUK counterparts?
I meant Scotland only (there are separate Green parties for all four parts of the UK). Sorry if that wasn't clear.
It is true that a lot of Green voters in England last time will surely leak to Labour - it seems very likely Brighton Pavilion will go. That was of course NPXMP's excuse for voting for Corbyn, as he feared the Greens were costing them seats.
The only small problem with his logic is that the minuscule Green vote is vastly outnumbered by the huge coterie who would rather remove their genitals with two bricks than vote for a party led by Corbyn. He was warned about this at the time!
I'd expect the combination of Lucas's profile and pleasant character, tacit support from Brighton LibDems and Corbyn repelling people from Labour would make Caroline a fairly safe hold? Brighton gains in profile from having her as (one of) its representative, after all.
Edit/ on BF Green 1/9 Tory 5/1 Lab 16/1
They lost the council last time and have been going steadily backwards for a while. It does depend on whether Caroline Lucas (whom I very nearly called Caroline Spelman!!!!) has a personal vote. My instinct is with Corbyn's Labour style she will lose five thousand votes - factor in a swing to the Conservatives and a collapse in the UKIP vote and there seems a fair chance she will come third if only by a very narrow margin.
Edit - I'd say Labour might be value at that price. Certainly they have a better chance of winning the seat than 16/1. At those odds I wouldn't back the Greens.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.
In England I think Corbyn already has most of that USP, and there is no sign of any green uptick. In Scotland I guess being pro-Indy lefties may give them a small edge over their rUK counterparts?
I meant Scotland only (there are separate Green parties for all four parts of the UK). Sorry if that wasn't clear.
It is true that a lot of Green voters in England last time will surely leak to Labour - it seems very likely Brighton Pavilion will go. That was of course NPXMP's excuse for voting for Corbyn, as he feared the Greens were costing them seats.
The only small problem with his logic is that the minuscule Green vote is vastly outnumbered by the huge coterie who would rather remove their genitals with two bricks than vote for a party led by Corbyn. He was warned about this at the time!
I'd expect the combination of Lucas's profile and pleasant character, tacit support from Brighton LibDems and Corbyn repelling people from Labour would make Caroline a fairly safe hold? Brighton gains in profile from having her as (one of) its representative, after all.
Edit/ on BF Green 1/9 Tory 5/1 Lab 16/1
They lost the council last time and have been going steadily backwards for a while. It does depend on whether Caroline Lucas (whom I very nearly called Caroline Spelman!!!!) has a personal vote. My instinct is with Corbyn's Labour style she will lose five thousand votes - factor in a swing to the Conservatives and a collapse in the UKIP vote and there seems a fair chance she will come third if only by a very narrow margin.
Edit - I'd say Labour might be value at that price. Certainly they have a better chance of winning the seat than 16/1. At those odds I wouldn't back the Greens.
Call it right and you'll be a rich man. Personally I think those odds are pretty fair - perhaps the Greens should be 1/3, but there's the bookie's margin.
Comments
It is true that a lot of Green voters in England last time will surely leak to Labour - it seems very likely Brighton Pavilion will go. That was of course NPXMP's excuse for voting for Corbyn, as he feared the Greens were costing them seats.
The only small problem with his logic is that the minuscule Green vote is vastly outnumbered by the huge coterie who would rather remove their genitals with two bricks than vote for a party led by Corbyn. He was warned about this at the time!
Before:
People of working age 20-62.5 (42.5 years) pay for those aged 62.5-80 (17.5 years).
Ratio = 17.5/42.5 = 0.412.
After:
People of working age 20-68 (48 years) pay for those aged 68-88 (20 years).
Ratio = 20/48 = 0.416.
If people start living to 98-100, as they might soon do in Japan and Korea, adjust all over again.
Omits the unfortunate people who die before age 62.5 or 68. But likely to be a fairly accurate comparison.
At least that's how I remember it looking when I dug into the data in 2014/15.
Which scottish seats are likely to have the highest green vote this time around?
Watch as @stephengethins gets skewed on the SNP welfare powers, he even mouths "well yes" whilst shaking his head.
The Scottish Green Party is effectively a Hard Left fringe companion to the SNP, as you correctly suggest. The bulk of their vote is well-used to voting tactically at constituency level from Holyrood elections, and will do just the same in this vote and back the SNP. I can only imagine them making any difference in any seat in the event of a virtual dead heat between the two leading parties.
The Greens' profile is up since a good performance in the Scottish Parliament election last year - when they overtook the Lib Dems by one seat - but even so, my round figure estimate of 2% for the Green vote may still be a touch on the generous side.
Edit/ on BF Green 1/9 Tory 5/1 Lab 16/1
NEW THREAD
Voters have become increasingly disillusioned with Nicola Sturgeon’s record on key domestic issues — including her high-profile efforts to improve Scottish education — according to a new poll.
In findings which could have a significant impact on her party’s performance in June’s general election, the YouGov poll found that the first minister has so far failed to persuade voters that her government is solving the country’s problems on health, the economy and education.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/voters-lose-faith-in-snp-record-on-domestic-issues-poll-shows-0mf2x6rrf?CMP=Sprkr-_-Editorial-_-thetimes-_-Politics-_-Imageandlink-_-Statement-_-Unspecified-_-ACCOUNT_TYPE&linkId=37039250
Edit - I'd say Labour might be value at that price. Certainly they have a better chance of winning the seat than 16/1. At those odds I wouldn't back the Greens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLcwhgrxTWs