What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation. To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.
30 percent won't destroy them anymore than it dd in 1983 or 2010. I'm no cheerleader for Labour. Just very disappointed in the lack of vision or anything resembling policy from the Government. It's piss poor to be honest.
There will never be a a more propitious set of circumstances for the Tories to annihilate Labour and yet the recent polling suggests that if anything Corbyn is polling roughly the same as Miliband. The Tories are reliant on UKIP switchers and Wales and particularly Scotland. To be honest Ruth should probably suggest Tessie stays away.
Cameron's Tories lost to Corbo's Labour in polling this time last year.
May has united the right in a way neither Cameron nor Osborne ever could.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.
"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything. I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.
I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?
"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything. I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.
I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?
Cameron was the right man until about Feb 2016. The way he lashed out at his party when his rubbish deal was questioned shook me to the core. He jumped a few months too late.
The right always borrow the best policies of the left - have done since Dizzy.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Corbyn observed a minutes silence for those brave freedom fighters (because they were sticking it to the imperialists - you know, the imperialists in the country he wants to run).
What happens NOW in terms of sending respects is completely different.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim for a majority close to 100, but at the moment he may do the same or only marginally worse than ed m, and so justifiably claim with a united party he could have done better.
If these scores are replicated, he probably will stay on, and the MPs will have no ability to stop him in anything. And TMay could well end up with a good majority, but it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.
Well, of course I agree the Tories are likely to get an overall majority (though the campaign hasn't really got going yet, and I do wonder how well Theresa May's Brexit position will stand up to scrutiny).
But really I was thinking in more quantitative terms about the accuracy of the polls. Obviously there's a lot of spread betting on seat numbers, and betting on results in individual seats. I'd have thought that relied on accurate polling information, rather than just on an indirect indicator of the overall winner.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.
Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
Assuming that the polls are correct they would get around 11% if the GE were tomorrow. Let's see how that compares with the local results on the 4th.
The Liberals will get 15% by the end of this long campaign. There will be massive tactical voting. Apart from UKIP, every other party is anti-Tory.
Ah I see, you are projecting what you hope will happen
Lets be honest, Labour are not in a fit position to lead the country and you forget the all important leadership / favourability numbers.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim for a majority close to 100, but at the moment he may do the same or only marginally worse than ed m, and so justifiably claim with a united party he could have done better.
If these scores are replicated, he probably will stay on, and the MPs will have no ability to stop him in anything. And TMay could well end up with a good majority, but it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.
Being stuck struggling to stay the right side of 30% isn't optimistic for Labour; there is still no obvious route back to being a credible challenger for power. And it would probably maximise the chance that Corbyn clings on after all, given all the talk of low-20s devastation.
30 percent won't destroy them anymore than it dd in 1983 or 2010. I'm no cheerleader for Labour. Just very disappointed in the lack of vision or anything resembling policy from the Government. It's piss poor to be honest.
There will never be a a more propitious set of circumstances for the Tories to annihilate Labour and yet the recent polling suggests that if anything Corbyn is polling roughly the same as Miliband. The Tories are reliant on UKIP switchers and Wales and particularly Scotland. To be honest Ruth should probably suggest Tessie stays away.
As I said, in the medium and long term it's not about the number of MPs but the quality thereof. And that's where Labour will have problems with a reduced number of MPs. Then again, to counter my argument, both Brown and Blair won their seats during the 1983 defeat.
If the Conservatives get a landslide they'll have an opposing problem: too many MPs of varying quality. Many potential bright stars, but a fair few intellectual black holes as well. (*)
Agree about a policy vacuum from the government. Then again, Brexit's subsumed everything.
(*) It occurs to me we could have a stellar classification for MPs:
Blue giants: large, burn brightly but die quickly. Tend to destroy everything around them when they die. Class II bright giants: the true stars. Affects everything around them. Dwarfs: long careers but don't achieve much (our sun in a dwarf). Subdwarfs: very long career but no-one cares much about them. Brown dwarfs: Virtually undetectable careers.
People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.
What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim .
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.
Being stuck struggling to stay the right side of 30% isn't optimistic for Labour; there is still no obvious route back to being a credible challenger for power. And it would probably maximise the chance that Corbyn clings on after all, given all the talk of low-20s devastation.
It's optimistic compared to their fears of a wipe out, and gives hope should Brexit unravel, providing an opportunity. It's possible they do better than 1983, and while they'd hope to recover faster than 14 years, that'd still be better than previously predicted.
Tim Montgomerie Cameron's tax guarantee was written with expection of having LibDem coalition partners who'd veto it. Mrs May knows she'll own her promises
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.
The EU is always up for a deal - their SOP is a long haggle, an extended deadline, an apparent breakdown and then a last-minute deal which leaves everyone half-happy. The problem is that the British aren't really used to that, and there are significant blocs in Parliament who want to either win outright (won't happen) or lose outright and walk away.
I think that stage 1 - the 3 demands - will be settled within a few months, though. It's noticeable that Britain isn't really arguing much about the exit fee, nobody really wants mass expulsions of anyone, and Ireland has to be solved one way or another.
"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything. I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.
I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?
And where's the evidence that Cameron would have been enjoying huge leads ?
The opinion polls - notice how the big Conservative leads coincide with Cameron leaving the leadership, there were even some where Labour were ahead of a Cameron led Conservatives:
Do you really think the Conservatives would have won the Copeland by-election under Cameron's leadership or that the Conservatives would now be odds on to win in Sedgefield, Scunthorpe and Slough ?
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.
The EU is always up for a deal
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.
Not at present. They look like they're standing still, and the other MPs aren't forcing him out or splitting if that turns out to be the case.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.
The EU is always up for a deal - their SOP is a long haggle, an extended deadline, an apparent breakdown and then a last-minute deal which leaves everyone half-happy. The problem is that the British aren't really used to that, and there are significant blocs in Parliament who want to either win outright (won't happen) or lose outright and walk away.
I think that stage 1 - the 3 demands - will be settled within a few months, though. It's noticeable that Britain isn't really arguing much about the exit fee, nobody really wants mass expulsions of anyone, and Ireland has to be solved one way or another.
A really crap SOP, isn't it?
I'd say it is the result of a poorly organised self serving bureaucracy.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
Yes, it's certainly a worry that the thought of a large lead in itself serves to moderate opinion. I agree with others that UNS is potentially a bad predictor for this election, with the evidence pointing to the Labour vote holding up in safe seats and no-hope areas but falling sharply where it matters in the marginals. The nearest equivalent is probably 1997, where the majority was larger than the UNS would have predicted.
Unless we are back in shy tory bold labour territory in the polls, kudos to corbyn. Somehow, he will not have ruined labour, even if he has not taken them forwards.
@paulwaughMay correctly points out the EU mantra is that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. Hints she'll dig in on brexit bill #marrshow
We just agree the specific payment to be made early, but provisionally, subject to the overall deal being ratified at the end. Such things are common in negotiations and I don't really see any 'news' here.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
The ORB poll has a significant number of "Did Not Vote Last Time" switchers in the Labour number, along with extremely minor party switchers (Greens/TUSC etc).
That vote is not going to materialise in the main, and it will be in London, Brighton and uni towns if it does.
It accounts for more than 1 in 7 of the Labour pledges.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
She seems to be saving policies for the ever exciting manifesto reveal, it's typical brand management
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -80
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Quite probable. The problem is that the EU have form for saying 'agree to this and we can discuss that', Blair's giving up of the UK rebate in exchange for CAP reform springs to mind. The result was that we agreed to pay billions a year more and the CAP reform never happened.
Last nights polling shows the Tories can't afford to rest on their laurels. They still point to a more than comfortable victory and majority, but I am not surprised we have seen some tightening. Say what you will about Corbyn, but Labour have been out and about making the headlines largely on policy over the last few days, and there's not been (yet) the kind of ridiculous gaffe from the Labour top team that we've come to expect would dominate a GE campaign with Corbyn in charge.
It is, however, a measure of our times that a projected majority of around 100 or so for Theresa May is considered a disappointment..
Baxtering the last 3 polls as follows: Con 43, Lab 31, LD 11, UKIP 7, GRN 2 gives the Tories a majority of 60.
I believe the LDs will do better than that.
In practice, a lead of 12% will likely give a lead of 100 or so.
The ORB poll has a significant number of "Did Not Vote Last Time" switchers in the Labour number, along with extremely minor party switchers (Greens/TUSC etc).
That vote is not going to materialise in the main, and it will be in London, Brighton and uni towns if it does.
It accounts for more than 1 in 7 of the Labour pledges.
To be fair to Corbyn, he does like the non voter strategy.
All together now; what is the problem with non voters?
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?
We need a trade deal more than they do
You're wasting your time Scott, the headbangers are living in their own parallel world. We will agree to any deal that the EU gives us. Simples.
How Is yours Not A Headbanger position? It's not a deal if we just have to take what we're told, and nick tells us the EU is about deals. Arguing one side might get the better end of the deal is a reasonable point. Arguing in essence one side will dictate what the other gets and that is that, is a headbanger point which accepts no possibility we get anything.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.
How do you even it up though? The Indi gave up printing as no one was buying them, the guardian are rapidly going that way and the mirror are losing readers. Is this because the left just won't pay for news?
People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
Yes, it's certainly a worry that the thought of a large lead in itself serves to moderate opinion. I agree with others that UNS is potentially a bad predictor for this election, with the evidence pointing to the Labour vote holding up in safe seats and no-hope areas but falling sharply where it matters in the marginals. The nearest equivalent is probably 1997, where the majority was larger than the UNS would have predicted.
The talk of large numbers of direct Labour-Tory switches always seemed unlikely, particularly with Labour starting already below 30%. An unpopular Labour might lose votes to tactical voting, abstentions, or to the LibDems directly, but much less likely to the Tories. Whilst a chunk of the UKIP vote is clearly going Tory even the Lab->UKIP->Tory progression is probably overstated. Excluding NI the Tories got about 38% last time; the progressively ageing population is working in their favour and they have clearly recaptured the right-wing part of the ukip vote to get into the mid-40s. What doesn't appear to be happening is Tory remainers deserting May, which could present some of the LibDem shire campaigns with a challenge, pending any boost they might get on Thursday.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -80
Not flash -- just Gordon. She must learn from Brown's mistake and reject any CCHQ stunts that were conceived for her predecessor as prime minister.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
I think the Tories may yet live to regret making GE2017 a vote on wether there's an appetite for Indeyref2 - particularly as even now they are set to come a resounding 2nd in Scotland. Bizarrely SLAB saved the Union the last time and broke themselves - SCON by their war like rhetoric - risk breaking it:
Stops the lds complaining that only Farron was asked such question. Must mean Marr is a Tory, since Farron was only asked such things by people who hate the lds, I read it on the Internet, and he's now allowed may to upstage Farron on the point.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
BTWE, note that Merkel has re-established a clear lead in Germany. Her CDU is a bit down on the last election, but about 5 points clear of the SPD. Moreover, her traditional coalition partner, the free-market liberal FDP, is clearing the 5% hurdle The far-right AfD is drifting around 8%. Looks like a new CDU-SPD coalition with a couple of extra SPD ministers. An SPD-Green-Left coalition is still within mathematical reach, but looks unlikely to have the convincing majority that a major shift like that would need.
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
The same amount of leverage we have now - very little.
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?
We need a trade deal more than they do
Given that almost all of them run trade surpluses with us, that's debatable.
The net beneficiaries and contributors to the EU budget are set against each other without our money, and Spain aside they are all net exporters of people to Britain.
If they want to go down that route, let 'em.
All May needs to have in place is an effective response plan.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
So she is cold and wooden and like your average snakeoil politician does not answer questions when asked. Country has a lot to look forward to if the PB fantasy is correct.
Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.
I think you're right.
The actual election result wont matter to Corbyn and his mates - it will be regarded as all part of the political cycle. After all:
1931 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory 1945 Conservatives are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory 1983 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory 1997 Conservatives are hammered - 13 years later win election (underachievement here)
Corbyn will believe that the political cycle will swing back to him at some point and if it takes a decade that gives plenty of time to reshape the Labour party to how he wants it.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
May starts with the considerable advantage that she does at least appear to understand why so many people are disenchanted and disillusioned with the current state of things, even if concrete actions to do anything about it have so far been negligible. Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -80
She gives the impression of being on top of her brief, but is not as good a public speaker as her predecessor. This is clear from PMQs, where she often hesitates or stutters while giving a good reply - as opposed to Cameron who could think very quickly on his feet (and had a decade of practice at the format). I think you're right that it makes her seem quite human for a senior politician.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
Stops the lds complaining that only Farron was asked such question. Must mean Marr is a Tory, since Farron was only asked such things by people who hate the lds, I read it on the Internet, and he's now allowed may to upstage Farron on the point.
Agreed. It was a very loaded question. Marr is just rubbish - why the BBC continue to use him is beyond me.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.
How do you even it up though? The Indi gave up printing as no one was buying them, the guardian are rapidly going that way and the mirror are losing readers. Is this because the left just won't pay for news?
Perhaps the left don't have a story worth paying for anymore.
Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
The same amount of leverage we have now - very little.
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
Why not?
But isn't that exactly what Britain has had throughout its EU membership ?
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she. You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
What exactly is fake about may? I'm no fan of hers, I find the extent of her popularity a little surprising but it seems there, but I'm not sure what's fake about her, other than acting like she never believed remaining in the EU was the best option.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French polls were stunningly accurate, in a situation of four-party geographically divergent and relatively fluid competition that I would have thought more difficult to poll than the UK?
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Don't be silly. We will agree to pay X assuming we reach an agreement on everything else. Then we move on to everything else. Negotiation 101
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.
I think Cameron & Osborne were well clued in on the 'Notting Hill' set - hence 'Hug a Huskie' and 'Batwoman Children Charity' - but for the rest of the country - or the bulk of the Conservative Party it was always de haut en bas. The Conservative members (in general) feel they've got their Party back and May is 'one of them' - Cameron - like Blair - was tolerated because he (nearly) won elections. I think more than a few in Labour feel they've got their Party back too - but are likely facing a radically different outcome.
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
I complained to them yesterday and, by their normal response time, am expecting a response today or tomorrow. I will let you know.
Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marr
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.
Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French polls were stunningly accurate, in a situation of four-party geographically divergent and relatively fluid competition that I would have thought more difficult to poll than the UK?
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?
As an interesting aside, the UK polling industry are in the spotlight - will they flunk it again?
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.
The French have high turnouts. It seems they like to vote. This reduces volatility (fewer people who might suddenly decide to get active) and they tend to be pretty steady and consistent in their voting habits. This all makes things easier for their pollsters.
I suspect French pollsters are a bit better too, but that's controversial, so I won't say it.
Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!
Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.
I think Cameron & Osborne were well clued in on the 'Notting Hill' set - hence 'Hug a Huskie' and 'Batwoman Children Charity' - but for the rest of the country - or the bulk of the Conservative Party it was always de haut en bas. The Conservative members (in general) feel they've got their Party back and May is 'one of them' - Cameron - like Blair - was tolerated because he (nearly) won elections. I think more than a few in Labour feel they've got their Party back too - but are likely facing a radically different outcome.
They're hoping for the equivalent of 2001 - stopping the slide - and on present polls might get it, though it's still not the most likely outcome, and they'd hope to recover faster.
Comments
May has united the right in a way neither Cameron nor Osborne ever could.
Mr. B, Bottas could be interesting to watch.
Mr. Mark, that's about as convincing as a man claiming he isn't kinky, whilst wearing a gimp suit.
The right always borrow the best policies of the left - have done since Dizzy.
Corbyn observed a minutes silence for those brave freedom fighters (because they were sticking it to the imperialists - you know, the imperialists in the country he wants to run).
What happens NOW in terms of sending respects is completely different.
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim for a majority close to 100, but at the moment he may do the same or only marginally worse than ed m, and so justifiably claim with a united party he could have done better.
If these scores are replicated, he probably will stay on, and the MPs will have no ability to stop him in anything. And TMay could well end up with a good majority, but it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.
But really I was thinking in more quantitative terms about the accuracy of the polls. Obviously there's a lot of spread betting on seat numbers, and betting on results in individual seats. I'd have thought that relied on accurate polling information, rather than just on an indirect indicator of the overall winner.
Lets be honest, Labour are not in a fit position to lead the country and you forget the all important leadership / favourability numbers.
LOL Jezza, your no Ed Milliband.
- enough to keep her own headbangers in check
- enough to leave Corbyn in charge of Labour
This 'doing a public service for the country by ensuring the defenestration of Corbyn' can be taken too far, you know.
If the Conservatives get a landslide they'll have an opposing problem: too many MPs of varying quality. Many potential bright stars, but a fair few intellectual black holes as well. (*)
Agree about a policy vacuum from the government. Then again, Brexit's subsumed everything.
(*) It occurs to me we could have a stellar classification for MPs:
Blue giants: large, burn brightly but die quickly. Tend to destroy everything around them when they die.
Class II bright giants: the true stars. Affects everything around them.
Dwarfs: long careers but don't achieve much (our sun in a dwarf).
Subdwarfs: very long career but no-one cares much about them.
Brown dwarfs: Virtually undetectable careers.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
Tim Montgomerie
Cameron's tax guarantee was written with expection of having LibDem coalition partners who'd veto it. Mrs May knows she'll own her promises
I think that stage 1 - the 3 demands - will be settled within a few months, though. It's noticeable that Britain isn't really arguing much about the exit fee, nobody really wants mass expulsions of anyone, and Ireland has to be solved one way or another.
Lets look at the evidence:
The 2016 local elections - Labour tops the poll:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016
The 2016 Tooting by-election - 7% swing from Conservative to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooting_by-election,_2016
The 2016 Ogmore by-election - Conservatives drop from second to fourth with a 2% swing from Conservative to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogmore_by-election,_2016
The 2016 Sheffield Brightside by-election - Conservatives drop from second to third with a 6% swing to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Brightside_and_Hillsborough_by-election,_2016
The 2015 Oldham East by-election - 8% swing from Conservative to Labour
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royton_by-election,_2015
The opinion polls - notice how the big Conservative leads coincide with Cameron leaving the leadership, there were even some where Labour were ahead of a Cameron led Conservatives:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
Do you really think the Conservatives would have won the Copeland by-election under Cameron's leadership or that the Conservatives would now be odds on to win in Sedgefield, Scunthorpe and Slough ?
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
I'd say it is the result of a poorly organised self serving bureaucracy.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
We need a trade deal more than they do
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
Awesome negotiating strategy
That vote is not going to materialise in the main, and it will be in London, Brighton and uni towns if it does.
It accounts for more than 1 in 7 of the Labour pledges.
May: No
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -80
All together now; what is the problem with non voters?
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-to-back-independence-referendum-if-snp-leads-poll-gz8tl5t2f
Here is McDonnell receiving an award from Gerry Kelly, the man who shot a prison warden in the head during the outbreak #peston #ridge
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
Why not?
The net beneficiaries and contributors to the EU budget are set against each other without our money, and Spain aside they are all net exporters of people to Britain.
If they want to go down that route, let 'em.
All May needs to have in place is an effective response plan.
The actual election result wont matter to Corbyn and his mates - it will be regarded as all part of the political cycle. After all:
1931 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1945 Conservatives are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1983 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1997 Conservatives are hammered - 13 years later win election (underachievement here)
Corbyn will believe that the political cycle will swing back to him at some point and if it takes a decade that gives plenty of time to reshape the Labour party to how he wants it.
You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/857951205724696577
I suspect French pollsters are a bit better too, but that's controversial, so I won't say it.