politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the questio
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Cameron's Tories lost to Corbo's Labour in polling this time last year.midwinter said:
30 percent won't destroy them anymore than it dd in 1983 or 2010. I'm no cheerleader for Labour. Just very disappointed in the lack of vision or anything resembling policy from the Government. It's piss poor to be honest.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.
There will never be a a more propitious set of circumstances for the Tories to annihilate Labour and yet the recent polling suggests that if anything Corbyn is polling roughly the same as Miliband. The Tories are reliant on UKIP switchers and Wales and particularly Scotland. To be honest Ruth should probably suggest Tessie stays away.
May has united the right in a way neither Cameron nor Osborne ever could.0 -
Mr. Jessop, 'tis impressive. Exercise is something I try to force myself to do, with varying degrees of success.
Mr. B, Bottas could be interesting to watch.
Mr. Mark, that's about as convincing as a man claiming he isn't kinky, whilst wearing a gimp suit.0 -
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
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Orange Booker party with Blair leading it?0
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He is in a small field of candidates for the leadership. That field looks to be getting bigger after next month.Big_G_NorthWales said:Genuinely wanting to be fair to Tim Farron but on Marr he is singularly unimpressive. Indeed I find myself drifting off to my forthcoming Canada trip
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I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?Mortimer said:
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.midwinter said:
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything.MTimT said:"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.0 -
T May a bit cringe on Marr so far.0
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You don't often see May dressed in striking Labour red.0
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Cameron was the right man until about Feb 2016. The way he lashed out at his party when his rubbish deal was questioned shook me to the core. He jumped a few months too late.MaxPB said:
I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?Mortimer said:
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.midwinter said:
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything.MTimT said:"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.
The right always borrow the best policies of the left - have done since Dizzy.
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You can't be that stupid.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
Corbyn observed a minutes silence for those brave freedom fighters (because they were sticking it to the imperialists - you know, the imperialists in the country he wants to run).
What happens NOW in terms of sending respects is completely different.
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Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim for a majority close to 100, but at the moment he may do the same or only marginally worse than ed m, and so justifiably claim with a united party he could have done better.
If these scores are replicated, he probably will stay on, and the MPs will have no ability to stop him in anything. And TMay could well end up with a good majority, but it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.0 -
Well, of course I agree the Tories are likely to get an overall majority (though the campaign hasn't really got going yet, and I do wonder how well Theresa May's Brexit position will stand up to scrutiny).SouthamObserver said:
What is clear in all the polls is that May is much more popular than Corbyn. As we know, this leadership gap is almost always the most accurate predictor of the final result.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
But really I was thinking in more quantitative terms about the accuracy of the polls. Obviously there's a lot of spread betting on seat numbers, and betting on results in individual seats. I'd have thought that relied on accurate polling information, rather than just on an indirect indicator of the overall winner.0 -
He can you know, he really can....Floater said:
You can't be that stupid.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-787980 -
Ah I see, you are projecting what you hope will happensurbiton said:
The Liberals will get 15% by the end of this long campaign. There will be massive tactical voting. Apart from UKIP, every other party is anti-Tory.logical_song said:
Assuming that the polls are correct they would get around 11% if the GE were tomorrow. Let's see how that compares with the local results on the 4th.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
Lets be honest, Labour are not in a fit position to lead the country and you forget the all important leadership / favourability numbers.
LOL Jezza, your no Ed Milliband.0 -
Being stuck struggling to stay the right side of 30% isn't optimistic for Labour; there is still no obvious route back to being a credible challenger for power. And it would probably maximise the chance that Corbyn clings on after all, given all the talk of low-20s devastation.kle4 said:
Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim for a majority close to 100, but at the moment he may do the same or only marginally worse than ed m, and so justifiably claim with a united party he could have done better.
If these scores are replicated, he probably will stay on, and the MPs will have no ability to stop him in anything. And TMay could well end up with a good majority, but it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.0 -
Tezza on Marr, not the love-in she was expecting...0
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I'm quite sanguine about a 'good working majority'kle4 said:
it will be sad for her supporters if the resilience of the labour floor prevents a landslide.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
- enough to keep her own headbangers in check
- enough to leave Corbyn in charge of Labour
This 'doing a public service for the country by ensuring the defenestration of Corbyn' can be taken too far, you know.0 -
As I said, in the medium and long term it's not about the number of MPs but the quality thereof. And that's where Labour will have problems with a reduced number of MPs. Then again, to counter my argument, both Brown and Blair won their seats during the 1983 defeat.midwinter said:30 percent won't destroy them anymore than it dd in 1983 or 2010. I'm no cheerleader for Labour. Just very disappointed in the lack of vision or anything resembling policy from the Government. It's piss poor to be honest.
There will never be a a more propitious set of circumstances for the Tories to annihilate Labour and yet the recent polling suggests that if anything Corbyn is polling roughly the same as Miliband. The Tories are reliant on UKIP switchers and Wales and particularly Scotland. To be honest Ruth should probably suggest Tessie stays away.
If the Conservatives get a landslide they'll have an opposing problem: too many MPs of varying quality. Many potential bright stars, but a fair few intellectual black holes as well. (*)
Agree about a policy vacuum from the government. Then again, Brexit's subsumed everything.
(*) It occurs to me we could have a stellar classification for MPs:
Blue giants: large, burn brightly but die quickly. Tend to destroy everything around them when they die.
Class II bright giants: the true stars. Affects everything around them.
Dwarfs: long careers but don't achieve much (our sun in a dwarf).
Subdwarfs: very long career but no-one cares much about them.
Brown dwarfs: Virtually undetectable careers.0 -
People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.0
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No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.Floater said:
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.logical_song said:
It was all so unnecessary.freetochoose said:
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.Sandpit said:Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Margaret Beckett: I was moron to nominate Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
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Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....0 -
It's optimistic compared to their fears of a wipe out, and gives hope should Brexit unravel, providing an opportunity. It's possible they do better than 1983, and while they'd hope to recover faster than 14 years, that'd still be better than previously predicted.IanB2 said:
Being stuck struggling to stay the right side of 30% isn't optimistic for Labour; there is still no obvious route back to being a credible challenger for power. And it would probably maximise the chance that Corbyn clings on after all, given all the talk of low-20s devastation.kle4 said:
Because people overreacted to 20+ leads that came out of nowhere and were not plausible. Labour are in a shambles but their vote has nowhere to go if your prime concern is a Tory government, particularly one now being bolstered by returning ukip voters. 30 seems high, mid to high 20s seems more reasonable to me given who the leader us and how they've spent the last few years, but fact is a lot of people asked themselves after the first days after the announcement if they really wanted the Tories to have a massive landslide majority, if they wanted labour reduced to 150 seats.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
At the moment, it would seem they decided they didn't want that, even if it means voting for Jeremy corbyn. There are not enough people who actively like him for him to do a Trump, but he simply does not offput 25-30% from voting for him it would seem. I find that a little inexplicable, he is far far worse than ed Miliband, the tories should aim .
And yet it appears if you say one is coming, the labour vote rallies. It will not fall below 25 outside MOE, and even if that is mostly rallying in the wrong places at close to 30 they still hold onto swathes more seats.
Labour have reason to be optimistic again. And the Lib Dems remain hapless.0 -
Well, quite:
Tim Montgomerie
Cameron's tax guarantee was written with expection of having LibDem coalition partners who'd veto it. Mrs May knows she'll own her promises
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The EU is always up for a deal - their SOP is a long haggle, an extended deadline, an apparent breakdown and then a last-minute deal which leaves everyone half-happy. The problem is that the British aren't really used to that, and there are significant blocs in Parliament who want to either win outright (won't happen) or lose outright and walk away.SouthamObserver said:
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.FF43 said:
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
I think that stage 1 - the 3 demands - will be settled within a few months, though. It's noticeable that Britain isn't really arguing much about the exit fee, nobody really wants mass expulsions of anyone, and Ireland has to be solved one way or another.0 -
And where's the evidence that Cameron would have been enjoying huge leads ?MaxPB said:
I think in a GE campaign Dave would have similar leads to the current ones if 13-17 points. If he had done it on the back of leading a successful leave campaign then maybe 30% leads. I don't get all of this rewriting of history by some members and supporters when it comes to Dave, he took us from the depths of unpopularity and delivered a Tory majority against all the odds. For that alone he deserves respect. Theresa would not have won in 2015, her policies are just awful, why vote for the Tory Ed Miliband when one can have the real thing?Mortimer said:
Yes, she created the leads. Polls this time last year with the Posh Boys in charge showed Corbo's Labour ahead.midwinter said:
Mrs May created those leads? Really? She leads because she's not Corbyn. She hasn't actually done anything.MTimT said:"Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads"
LOL. Leads she created and which were probably never really there and which, even now they are blown, leaves her in a commanding position such that Cameron could never have dreamed of for himself.
I am reserving judgment on May until we have some real read-out from the Brexit negotiations. But failure she is not - yet, particularly when judged against Cameron and Osborne.
I strongly doubt she'd have won a majority against Ed in 2015 after 5 years as PM.
Lets look at the evidence:
The 2016 local elections - Labour tops the poll:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016
The 2016 Tooting by-election - 7% swing from Conservative to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooting_by-election,_2016
The 2016 Ogmore by-election - Conservatives drop from second to fourth with a 2% swing from Conservative to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogmore_by-election,_2016
The 2016 Sheffield Brightside by-election - Conservatives drop from second to third with a 6% swing to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Brightside_and_Hillsborough_by-election,_2016
The 2015 Oldham East by-election - 8% swing from Conservative to Labour
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royton_by-election,_2015
The opinion polls - notice how the big Conservative leads coincide with Cameron leaving the leadership, there were even some where Labour were ahead of a Cameron led Conservatives:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
Do you really think the Conservatives would have won the Copeland by-election under Cameron's leadership or that the Conservatives would now be odds on to win in Sedgefield, Scunthorpe and Slough ?
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Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.NickPalmer said:
The EU is always up for a dealSouthamObserver said:
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.FF43 said:
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.0 -
The election would have been more entertaining with Andrea Leadsom; a proposition we can surely all agree?0
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Not at present. They look like they're standing still, and the other MPs aren't forcing him out or splitting if that turns out to be the case.SouthamObserver said:
No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.Floater said:
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.logical_song said:
It was all so unnecessary.freetochoose said:
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.Sandpit said:Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Margaret Beckett: I was moron to nominate Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.0 -
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.0 -
A really crap SOP, isn't it?NickPalmer said:
The EU is always up for a deal - their SOP is a long haggle, an extended deadline, an apparent breakdown and then a last-minute deal which leaves everyone half-happy. The problem is that the British aren't really used to that, and there are significant blocs in Parliament who want to either win outright (won't happen) or lose outright and walk away.SouthamObserver said:
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.FF43 said:
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
I think that stage 1 - the 3 demands - will be settled within a few months, though. It's noticeable that Britain isn't really arguing much about the exit fee, nobody really wants mass expulsions of anyone, and Ireland has to be solved one way or another.
I'd say it is the result of a poorly organised self serving bureaucracy.0 -
If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.0
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@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr0 -
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We need a trade deal more than they do0 -
@paulwaugh May correctly points out the EU mantra is that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. Hints she'll dig in on brexit bill #marrshow0
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Exactly? We need a trade deal. They want our money for the EU budget.Scott_P said:
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We need a trade deal more than they do0 -
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.0 -
Yes, it's certainly a worry that the thought of a large lead in itself serves to moderate opinion. I agree with others that UNS is potentially a bad predictor for this election, with the evidence pointing to the Labour vote holding up in safe seats and no-hope areas but falling sharply where it matters in the marginals. The nearest equivalent is probably 1997, where the majority was larger than the UNS would have predicted.kle4 said:People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
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Unless we are back in shy tory bold labour territory in the polls, kudos to corbyn. Somehow, he will not have ruined labour, even if he has not taken them forwards.0
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We just agree the specific payment to be made early, but provisionally, subject to the overall deal being ratified at the end. Such things are common in negotiations and I don't really see any 'news' here.CarlottaVance said:@paulwaugh May correctly points out the EU mantra is that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed'. Hints she'll dig in on brexit bill #marrshow
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Their only plan is Hard Brexit.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.0 -
So we will sacrifice the thing we need for the thing they want.Gallowgate said:Exactly? We need a trade deal. They want our money for the EU budget.
Awesome negotiating strategy0 -
The ORB poll has a significant number of "Did Not Vote Last Time" switchers in the Labour number, along with extremely minor party switchers (Greens/TUSC etc).
That vote is not going to materialise in the main, and it will be in London, Brighton and uni towns if it does.
It accounts for more than 1 in 7 of the Labour pledges.0 -
Master of saying and doing nothingScott_P said:
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr0 -
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
0 -
@DPJHodges: Great irony about that May performance was she did OK, but she didn't look especially strong and stable.0
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You're wasting your time Scott, the headbangers are living in their own parallel world. We will agree to any deal that the EU gives us. Simples.Scott_P said:
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We need a trade deal more than they do0 -
She seems to be saving policies for the ever exciting manifesto reveal, it's typical brand managementScott_P said:
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr
0 -
Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin?
May: No0 -
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -800 -
Quite probable. The problem is that the EU have form for saying 'agree to this and we can discuss that', Blair's giving up of the UK rebate in exchange for CAP reform springs to mind. The result was that we agreed to pay billions a year more and the CAP reform never happened.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.0 -
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?malcolmg said:
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.0 -
In practice, a lead of 12% will likely give a lead of 100 or so.surbiton said:
Baxtering the last 3 polls as follows: Con 43, Lab 31, LD 11, UKIP 7, GRN 2 gives the Tories a majority of 60.numbertwelve said:Last nights polling shows the Tories can't afford to rest on their laurels. They still point to a more than comfortable victory and majority, but I am not surprised we have seen some tightening. Say what you will about Corbyn, but Labour have been out and about making the headlines largely on policy over the last few days, and there's not been (yet) the kind of ridiculous gaffe from the Labour top team that we've come to expect would dominate a GE campaign with Corbyn in charge.
It is, however, a measure of our times that a projected majority of around 100 or so for Theresa May is considered a disappointment..
I believe the LDs will do better than that.0 -
To be fair to Corbyn, he does like the non voter strategy.chestnut said:The ORB poll has a significant number of "Did Not Vote Last Time" switchers in the Labour number, along with extremely minor party switchers (Greens/TUSC etc).
That vote is not going to materialise in the main, and it will be in London, Brighton and uni towns if it does.
It accounts for more than 1 in 7 of the Labour pledges.
All together now; what is the problem with non voters?0 -
No messing around on that answerCarlottaVance said:Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin?
May: No0 -
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.kle4 said:
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.0 -
How Is yours Not A Headbanger position? It's not a deal if we just have to take what we're told, and nick tells us the EU is about deals. Arguing one side might get the better end of the deal is a reasonable point. Arguing in essence one side will dictate what the other gets and that is that, is a headbanger point which accepts no possibility we get anything.murali_s said:
You're wasting your time Scott, the headbangers are living in their own parallel world. We will agree to any deal that the EU gives us. Simples.Scott_P said:
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We need a trade deal more than they do0 -
How do you even it up though? The Indi gave up printing as no one was buying them, the guardian are rapidly going that way and the mirror are losing readers. Is this because the left just won't pay for news?murali_s said:
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.kle4 said:
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.0 -
The talk of large numbers of direct Labour-Tory switches always seemed unlikely, particularly with Labour starting already below 30%. An unpopular Labour might lose votes to tactical voting, abstentions, or to the LibDems directly, but much less likely to the Tories. Whilst a chunk of the UKIP vote is clearly going Tory even the Lab->UKIP->Tory progression is probably overstated. Excluding NI the Tories got about 38% last time; the progressively ageing population is working in their favour and they have clearly recaptured the right-wing part of the ukip vote to get into the mid-40s. What doesn't appear to be happening is Tory remainers deserting May, which could present some of the LibDem shire campaigns with a challenge, pending any boost they might get on Thursday.Sandpit said:
Yes, it's certainly a worry that the thought of a large lead in itself serves to moderate opinion. I agree with others that UNS is potentially a bad predictor for this election, with the evidence pointing to the Labour vote holding up in safe seats and no-hope areas but falling sharply where it matters in the marginals. The nearest equivalent is probably 1997, where the majority was larger than the UNS would have predicted.kle4 said:People may still not know things about Corbyn but it's clear a lot of people really don't want a huge tory majority. Nothing those people will hear can change that - corbyn could be a terrorist sympathiser but since he won't become pm people can save their local labour MP without worrying about that.
0 -
So even by your own assessment it's nothing like a de facto one party state , since there's plenty of Labour leaning media, even if it is outnumbered.murali_s said:
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.kle4 said:
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.0 -
Not flash -- just Gordon. She must learn from Brown's mistake and reject any CCHQ stunts that were conceived for her predecessor as prime minister.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -800 -
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....0 -
Exactly Peter, has been obvious from the start.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?malcolmg said:
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.0 -
I bet he was pleased with that one when he wrote it last night!Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: Great irony about that May performance was she did OK, but she didn't look especially strong and stable.
0 -
I think the Tories may yet live to regret making GE2017 a vote on wether there's an appetite for Indeyref2 - particularly as even now they are set to come a resounding 2nd in Scotland. Bizarrely SLAB saved the Union the last time and broke themselves - SCON by their war like rhetoric - risk breaking it:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-to-back-independence-referendum-if-snp-leads-poll-gz8tl5t2f0 -
G, is that all they can say about her , faint praise indeed.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No messing around on that answerCarlottaVance said:Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin?
May: No0 -
Stops the lds complaining that only Farron was asked such question. Must mean Marr is a Tory, since Farron was only asked such things by people who hate the lds, I read it on the Internet, and he's now allowed may to upstage Farron on the point.CarlottaVance said:Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin?
May: No0 -
https://twitter.com/premitrom/status/858608351185383424
Here is McDonnell receiving an award from Gerry Kelly, the man who shot a prison warden in the head during the outbreak #peston #ridge
0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/30/if-may-really-does-mean-what-she-says-she-should-put-it-in-writingmalcolmg said:
Master of saying and doing nothingScott_P said:
@DPJHodges: This is a classic May performance. Getting through it OK. But always seems one question away from a minor-implosion.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
@gabyhinsliff: Oddest thing about this May Interview is it doesnt sound like an election one. Too many policies feel up in the air, not yet decided.#marr0 -
BTWE, note that Merkel has re-established a clear lead in Germany. Her CDU is a bit down on the last election, but about 5 points clear of the SPD. Moreover, her traditional coalition partner, the free-market liberal FDP, is clearing the 5% hurdle The far-right AfD is drifting around 8%. Looks like a new CDU-SPD coalition with a couple of extra SPD ministers. An SPD-Green-Left coalition is still within mathematical reach, but looks unlikely to have the convincing majority that a major shift like that would need.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
The same amount of leverage we have now - very little.Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
Why not?0 -
Given that almost all of them run trade surpluses with us, that's debatable.Scott_P said:
If we don't agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have?Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We need a trade deal more than they do
The net beneficiaries and contributors to the EU budget are set against each other without our money, and Spain aside they are all net exporters of people to Britain.
If they want to go down that route, let 'em.
All May needs to have in place is an effective response plan.0 -
So she is cold and wooden and like your average snakeoil politician does not answer questions when asked. Country has a lot to look forward to if the PB fantasy is correct.SeanT said:
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.0 -
I think you're right.SouthamObserver said:
No, one of the reasons the far left is going to try to hold on is because it knows that this is it's only chance. If it loses its grip it will be written out of the equation. Every gap in procedure, every hole in the rule book, every uncertainty will be removed by a moderate leadership team. And this is also why Labour will split should Corbyn win the leadership again. The GE has accelerated labour's denouement by three years.Floater said:
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.logical_song said:
It was all so unnecessary.freetochoose said:
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.Sandpit said:Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Margaret Beckett: I was moron to nominate Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
The actual election result wont matter to Corbyn and his mates - it will be regarded as all part of the political cycle. After all:
1931 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1945 Conservatives are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1983 Labour are hammered - 14 years later win a landslide victory
1997 Conservatives are hammered - 13 years later win election (underachievement here)
Corbyn will believe that the political cycle will swing back to him at some point and if it takes a decade that gives plenty of time to reshape the Labour party to how he wants it.
0 -
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?0 -
May starts with the considerable advantage that she does at least appear to understand why so many people are disenchanted and disillusioned with the current state of things, even if concrete actions to do anything about it have so far been negligible. Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.CarlottaVance said:
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....0 -
She gives the impression of being on top of her brief, but is not as good a public speaker as her predecessor. This is clear from PMQs, where she often hesitates or stutters while giving a good reply - as opposed to Cameron who could think very quickly on his feet (and had a decade of practice at the format). I think you're right that it makes her seem quite human for a senior politician.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public. The you gov yesterday showed her increasing her popularity while Corbyn slides further, and the conservative party favourabilty is now only -2 from -19 and as you gov says within touching distance of a positive rating. Meanwhile labour languishes on -27Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
I see her gaining the majority she is seeking of 60 -800 -
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .SeanT said:
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.0 -
Agreed. It was a very loaded question. Marr is just rubbish - why the BBC continue to use him is beyond me.kle4 said:
Stops the lds complaining that only Farron was asked such question. Must mean Marr is a Tory, since Farron was only asked such things by people who hate the lds, I read it on the Internet, and he's now allowed may to upstage Farron on the point.CarlottaVance said:Marr: Do you think gay sex is a sin?
May: No0 -
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?malcolmg said:
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.0 -
Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.0
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LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she.CarlottaVance said:
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.0 -
Perhaps the left don't have a story worth paying for anymore.HaroldO said:
How do you even it up though? The Indi gave up printing as no one was buying them, the guardian are rapidly going that way and the mirror are losing readers. Is this because the left just won't pay for news?murali_s said:
But it's far from even. Far from it. The press is Tory - it's been a fact of life for quite a while.kle4 said:
Labour has press support, don't be absurd.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.0 -
So, is LibDem policy to end the wider distribution of food to the hungry? Would they close down food banks? Would they send waste food to landfill as happened under Labour, rather than admit there was poverty on their watch?MarkSenior said:
She did not avoid difficult questions just ignored them and unfortunately Marr did not press her enough to force her to answer . An example of this was the question re nurses having to use food banks at the end of a week .SeanT said:
Actually, she wasn't wooden. She's just slightly cold, she's never going to get the audience laughing. But she's clever in avoiding difficult questions, she deftly swerves around traps, and she has an impressive grasp of detail. She's an intelligent and capable politician with a good poker face. And she's not annoyingly posh and never gives the impression she's looking down on you.murali_s said:
Usual wooden rubbish from her. "Strong and stable", "Coalition of chaos" etc. etc.SeanT said:Curious polls. Slightly encouraging for Labour. Maybe the Tory say-nothing shtick isn't working. Hmm.
A better performance from TMay on Marr today, though. Lucid, calm, measured.
To be fair, the PB Tories needn't worry. The press arm of the defacto one-party state hasn't been deployed yet so relax folks. JCICWNBPM.
I can see why she's popular even as people don't warm to her. She's what we want right now.
The left's political cant over food banks is sick-making.0 -
But isn't that exactly what Britain has had throughout its EU membership ?Peter_the_Punter said:
The same amount of leverage we have now - very little.Gallowgate said:If we agree to massive payments prior to a trade deal, what leverage do we have? I can see T May's point.
We will get the deal the EU wants us to have, or none at all. How can it be different? We are playing poker with our cards face up on the table. They have no obligation to us. They are obliged to serve the interests of their members only, and they will concede to us only to the extent it is in their interests to do so.
Why not?0 -
What exactly is fake about may? I'm no fan of hers, I find the extent of her popularity a little surprising but it seems there, but I'm not sure what's fake about her, other than acting like she never believed remaining in the EU was the best option.malcolmg said:
LOL , May is as fake as a three bob bit. Dire Tories down to castigating Sturgeon for getting her hair done and not looking like an old granny, how very dare she.CarlottaVance said:
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
You could not make it up. Desperation setting in quickly with the frothers.0 -
The French polls were stunningly accurate, in a situation of four-party geographically divergent and relatively fluid competition that I would have thought more difficult to poll than the UK?DecrepitJohnL said:
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?0 -
Don't be silly. We will agree to pay X assuming we reach an agreement on everything else. Then we move on to everything else. Negotiation 101Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.0 -
I think Cameron & Osborne were well clued in on the 'Notting Hill' set - hence 'Hug a Huskie' and 'Batwoman Children Charity' - but for the rest of the country - or the bulk of the Conservative Party it was always de haut en bas. The Conservative members (in general) feel they've got their Party back and May is 'one of them' - Cameron - like Blair - was tolerated because he (nearly) won elections. I think more than a few in Labour feel they've got their Party back too - but are likely facing a radically different outcome.IanB2 said:
Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.CarlottaVance said:
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....
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I complained to them yesterday and, by their normal response time, am expecting a response today or tomorrow. I will let you know.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, Betfair still hasn't settled its "Year of next General Election" market. Do they know something we don't?? They are earning interest on £100 of my money and no doubt lots of others.
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Bye bye Nissan, and it won't be just Sunderland's economy crashing out of the Premier League.foxinsoxuk said:
I think so too. Hard Brexit is the default option and increasingly nailed on.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why would that be a surprise to anybody?malcolmg said:
Their only plan is Hard Brexit.Scott_P said:
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May holds firm on no Brexit divorce payout until EU confirms trade deal terms: "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" #Marrkle4 said:Tell that to William and Scott, who greet every demand from the EU as destined to occur because the tide of history means they will get everything.
The most likely outcome of that stance is "nothing is agreed"
No deal.
May cannot agree to anything that does not satisfy the 52% and the EU cannot agree to anything that does.
No deal.0 -
UmmmmSeanT said:she has an impressive grasp of detail
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8579512057246965770 -
As an interesting aside, the UK polling industry are in the spotlight - will they flunk it again?IanB2 said:
The French polls were stunningly accurate, in a situation of four-party geographically divergent and relatively fluid competition that I would have thought more difficult to poll than the UK?DecrepitJohnL said:
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
What concerns me are the significant adjustments being made to our polls between raw data and published result, which appears to be depressing the LibDem score in particular. In my view it would be better to make sure the sample is balanced in the first place (by seeking out more of the undersampled groups, as pollsters always used to do) rather than trying to massage and fiddle an unrepresentative sample after the event to 'push' the outcome back towards where you think it should be. How can anyone trust polling like that?0 -
The French have high turnouts. It seems they like to vote. This reduces volatility (fewer people who might suddenly decide to get active) and they tend to be pretty steady and consistent in their voting habits. This all makes things easier for their pollsters.DecrepitJohnL said:
I've not done the maths, and it is early days yet, but my impression is the French polls were tighter, and proved fairly accurate. I'd be nervous about staking huge sums at short prices based on our polls, given the large spread and that our pollsters always seem to be fighting the last war, but the punters who do that sort of thing tend to bet late anyway.Chris said:I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?
I suspect French pollsters are a bit better too, but that's controversial, so I won't say it.0 -
They're hoping for the equivalent of 2001 - stopping the slide - and on present polls might get it, though it's still not the most likely outcome, and they'd hope to recover faster.CarlottaVance said:
I think Cameron & Osborne were well clued in on the 'Notting Hill' set - hence 'Hug a Huskie' and 'Batwoman Children Charity' - but for the rest of the country - or the bulk of the Conservative Party it was always de haut en bas. The Conservative members (in general) feel they've got their Party back and May is 'one of them' - Cameron - like Blair - was tolerated because he (nearly) won elections. I think more than a few in Labour feel they've got their Party back too - but are likely facing a radically different outcome.IanB2 said:
Neither Cameron nor Osborne ever appeared to have the slightest clue.CarlottaVance said:
After two decades of 'smooth operators' (with a brief interlude of Brown) perhaps the public are open to a more 'authentic' politician. I'm sure it doesn't go un-noticed that her hair is the colour nature intended - unlike most other female (and no doubt more than a few male) politicians. What is Sturgeon's natural colour - so difficult to keep track!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The strange paradox about Theresa May is that she is not the best speaker but her flaws seem to be endearing her to the public.Mortimer said:Mrs May knows the detail more than I ever got the impression from Cameron.
She can do this job for years and years if she wants. All other party leaders look like also rans....0
