politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

Or 'crown' as we say in Britain.

DavidL said:

Hmm... on those spreads I would be a seller of Lib Dem, seller of Labour and seller of UKIP. I would be very reluctant at the moment to go either way on the SNP. This surely means I should be a buyer of Tories but it seems awfully high already...

I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.

Plaid look vulnerable to the Tories to me by the way, with no currently Tory seat amongst Plaid's targets.

Another technical reason to buy the Tories.

Labour might not actually be a sell, but buying Labour is "bold" I think.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

What's he done now?

Nothing particular, but I read this article, co-written by Martin Baxter.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

Trying to win a general election with Corbyn as your leader is a brilliant idea as a guy with impotence wanting to be a porn star.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

Why would they need to? At the moment they aren't going any further backwards

Jason said:

I can guarantee one thing for certain - if there are charges brought against these Tory MPs before the election, this site will go into meltdown.

Fact.

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/857534203789021185

Nice hashtag on the bottom right of the image

Nice spot.

CarlottaVance said:

Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak
Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......

Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

But... but... but ....

I like my local Lib Dem candidate, he did my family a solid once. No way on gods earth am I risking putting Corbyn and a coalition of clowns anywhere near levers of power.

Blue_rog said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Tim fresh from some behind-the-shed spaniel sniffing.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/857565036532858881

"I've finished my bacon sandwich. Is it safe to come out yet?

This picture could run and run

What's the context of the pic?

tlg86 said:

Do you have to deposit £,3840 into your account?

If you are a longer term customer, they will offer you credit, which means you can bet way more than the funds you have available...

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

What's he done now?

Nothing particular, but I read this article, co-written by Martin Baxter.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

Trying to win a general election with Corbyn as your leader is a brilliant idea as a guy with impotence wanting to be a porn star.

Presumably if Corbyn resigned during the campaign Watson would become 'de facto' leader...

@BBCTimDonovan: Blessing of UKIP given to @BorisJohnson in Uxbridge - no candidate came forward at branch meeting last night to challenge him #GE2017

Jason said:

I can guarantee one thing for certain - if there are charges brought against these Tory MPs before the election, this site will go into meltdown.

Why? It will be sub judice.

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

Could be embarrassing.
I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.

Well Craig Mackinlay's file went to the CPS this week.

This could get very messy.

What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?

Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.

One by one please - name and shame the Tories everyday for as long as it takes (a bit like the Labour front bench resignations) - popcorn time!

Innocent until proven guilty right?

Also I seem to recall both Labour and Lib Dems have their own problems in this area,

felix said:

Nigelb said:

Roger said:

Interesting to hear Angela Merkel saying brexit means brexit therefore go f**k yourselves.

In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.

Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.

Angela Merkel has an election to fight - which she's going to do well before the real negotiations start. Over-interpreting comments made for domestic consumption is not sensible.

This is Roger whose love for the EU is only surpassed by his hatred for the UK

Roger likes part of the Uk - just not the working classes

perdix said:

Roger said:

Interesting to hear Angela Merkel saying brexit means brexit therefore go f**k yourselves.

In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.

Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.

Be more precise in your reporting - no fake news here!
Bojo said if the US asked us to attack Syria with them after another nerve gas event - "we would find it difficult to refuse".

Ah, a very different story than the one being presented

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 22m22 minutes ago

Can someone explain to me what Jeremy Corbyn was doing in Harlow?

As little (further) damage to Labour brand as possible>

Pulpstar said:

*** Aftertime Alert*******

I note Paddy Power has knocked their SNP line back to 48.5, what a gift 51.5 was.

Even more generous than the Scot Nats were offering @Scott_P here.

9 out of 58 = win ?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/analysis-conservatives-can-take-nine-seats-snp-2017-general/#comments

calum said:

9 out of 58 = win ?

800% increase?

Looks like a win...

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark?
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?

1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie

What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5

Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000

Scott_P said:

calum said:

9 out of 58 = win ?

800% increase?

Looks like a win...

Does winner not normally beat the loser !!

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

Why would they need to? At the moment they aren't going any further backwards

Jason said:

I can guarantee one thing for certain - if there are charges brought against these Tory MPs before the election, this site will go into meltdown.

Fact.

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/kezdugdale/status/857534203789021185

Nice hashtag on the bottom right of the image

Nice spot.

Of course, it won't be anywhere near the scale of meltdown in Labour Central. Even with those charges, the Tories will still win a handsome majority.

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCTimDonovan: Blessing of UKIP given to @BorisJohnson in Uxbridge - no candidate came forward at branch meeting last night to challenge him #GE2017

Has Nuttall decided where to stand, or like most other Kippers, he’s sitting this one out?

Not standing against Leave MPs is totally the right thing for UKIP to do. The whole reason for their existence was to ensure we left the EU. If we had lost the referendum, they would no doubt have gained more support and won more seats, but they shouldn't be greed, just accept victory!

Target that Remain voting, Bridge non preventer in Thurrock!

Scott_P said:

calum said:

Does winner not normally beat the loser !!

If this happens, the winner will have beaten the loser 8 times.

Hard for Nicola to spin that as a success for her

& the loser has beat the winner 50 times - hardly a big FPTP success for Ruth

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

Oh dear

https://order-order.com/2017/04/27/corbyn-not-sure-assad-regime-carried-chemical-attack/

What that I can hear....Uncle Lynton telling a minion to fire up the computer he has an idea for a new attack ad....

It is so reassuring to know that Jezza has total confidence that "inspectors" are managing to get around Syria and destroy the stockpiles of chemical weapons. Its a f##king war zone, not a daytrip to beach with a metal detector to look for old coins.

I agree w Jez

The fact that the East London doctor, now struck off, who was tried for kidnapping John Cantlie keeps churning out youtube propaganda videos from Syria makes me smell a rat/spaniel whatever the saying is

calum said:

& the loser has beat the winner 50 times

Not really.

If the Tories take 8 seats off the SNP, Tories win and SNP lose.

If the SNP take no seats off the Tories, they don't win anything they didn't already have

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak
Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......

Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

But... but... but ....

I like my local Lib Dem candidate, he did my family a solid once.

Not Mark Oaten was it?

prh47bridge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

What constrains them to decide before polling day?

Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.

You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.

In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.

According to the Guardian's report at the time the extension was granted the original deadline was 12th June 2016. The new deadline is therefore 12th June 2017, a few days AFTER the election. The CPS therefore do NOT have to come to a decision before polling day.

The 12th of June deadline is just for Kent Police, other forces have different deadlines.

Scott_P said:

Remember folks, this election is not about Alex Salmond taking over from Nicola Sturgeon, honest...

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/857587646918512640

Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.

Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark?
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?

1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie

What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5

Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000

Much of the UKIP vote came from the Lib Dems not the Conservatives 1/2 and 6/4 if I were a bookie .

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark?
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?

1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie

What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5

Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000

Brake looks vulnerable to my eyes.

I think we will gain Bermondsey & then Twickenham BEFORE holding Carshalton.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/857591106002964482

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/857591106002964482

It is literally underneath my window. A man has been arrested - there's a bag on the crossing at Parliament Street and a bunch of knives on the ground. Seems it's all over whatever it is. Move along people, move along.

https://twitter.com/PA/status/857592328852209664

...

logical_song said:

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

Could be embarrassing.
I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.

Well Craig Mackinlay's file went to the CPS this week.

This could get very messy.

What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?

Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.

One by one please - name and shame the Tories everyday for as long as it takes (a bit like the Labour front bench resignations) - popcorn time!

The CPS have a job to do, but it will difficult for them to avoid political controversy.

They need to be careful - they need to act before 11th May otherwise it will be seen as a political act.

Theresa May has no blame in this and I am certain she will state that all her mps deny all charges

At this point it becomes sub judice and comments made would have to be measured against contempt of court

I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results.

The danger of selling UKIP is that they might pick up an odd seat on very local circumstances even as their vote share craters. I'm not expecting it but stranger things have happened. Anyway, I'm not betting on UKIP either way this time. They haven't proved revenue positive for me in the past.

At present the Conservative buy and Labour sell prices both assume that the polls are going to get better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour and/or that uniform national swing is unreliable. Actually, I tend to agree but I'm glad I sold Labour a few seats higher. The market seems to be getting quite a bit ahead of itself purely on sentiment at present.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.

They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/mugwump-attack-lynton-crosby-fingerprints-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn

Well its a view I suppose.

Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.

@AlastairMeeks UNS Gives: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html (I assume they use UNS)

Con 408
Lab 164
Lib Dem 9

I think selling Labour assumes things are worse for them than UNS, however buying the Tories does not.

david_herdson said:

Key points, running contrary to some comment on here:

The Remain vote is less likely to drive voting intention than the Leave one, and, consequently,

The Lib Dems would be reduced to 6 MPs on current ICM polling.

The even keyer point is that electoral politics is entirely zero-sum. If the Conservatives gain votes from any party they improve their position against all parties. So the Lib Dems don't have to do anything wrong, maybe even a bit ahead, but they will lose against Conservatives picking up votes from Labour and particularly UKIP.

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.

They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/mugwump-attack-lynton-crosby-fingerprints-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn

Well its a view I suppose.

Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.

But on the subject of terrorism, violence, supporting our nation's enemies, etc he is still ery vulnerable. I don't think Joe Average Voter has fully clocked his backstory yet.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results....
[snip]

The really odd thing is that the bookies don't seem to be consistent in their LibDem figures. What are the seats that would make up a LibDem total of (say) 15, let alone 26? Well, surely Twickenham, for example, would be one their easiest targets, yet you can get 1.73 on them there. A simple strategy of betting on Vince and also on LD total less than 25.5 at 1.83 looks like a case where you couldn't lose both bets, and you'd very probably win both. And there are longer-odds seats where the same principle, albeit with a bit less certainty, applies

I came up with the following seat order applying a split remain/leave UNS for the first 20 seats in order (No corrections for Scotland, I have backed Fife and Edi West but not Dunbartonshire off the back of Holyrood results.

Sheffield Hallam
Leeds North West
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Cambridge
Ceredigion
Orkney & Shetland <- Should be top of the pile
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Dunbartonshire East
Norfolk North
Edinburgh West <- Holyrood indicates a goody
Cardiff Central
Burnley <- 3 way possibly
Southport
Bristol West <- Green potential challenge
Carshalton & Wallington
Fife North East <- Holyrood indicates a goody
Twickenham
Hornsey & Wood Green
Lewes

Patrick said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.

They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/mugwump-attack-lynton-crosby-fingerprints-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn

Well its a view I suppose.

Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.

But on the subject of terrorism, violence, supporting our nation's enemies, etc he is still ery vulnerable. I don't think Joe Average Voter has fully clocked his backstory yet.

For most voters it will be ancient history, and is probably priced in anyway. However, I was talking specifically about Middle East adventurism, where the Conservative campaign risks overplaying its hand. Look at the comments on Guido's blog -- hardly Momentum Central. Presumably Boris is flying a kite for Lynton Crosby and I suspect we'll not hear much more on this.

most generous odds i've found so far on a conservative hold is brighton kemptown at 4/11.

I know the greens have withdrawn their candidate but even in 2015 labour+green+libdem<tory+ukip.

unless libdems withdraw too I can only see an increased tory majority here.

paulyork64 said:

most generous odds i've found so far on a conservative hold is brighton kemptown at 4/11.

I know the greens have withdrawn their candidate but even in 2015 labour+green+libdem

That's a mad price. This isn't Ed Miliband's Labour the Tories are facing this time round.

Over in America i see the Republicans now have a Obamacare repeal bill that is nasty enough for the Freedom caucus but radioactive slime for GOP moderates in marginal seats.

Brilliantly it does away with the previous existing condition clause for the general public but keeps it for Congressional healthcare.

@Richard_Nabavi I think Cambridge deserves it's place up there. In an analysis of results Julian Huppert retained way more of his vote than the average Lib Dem (Save a few Scots).
He has a decent personal vote, and I think the Tory vote share could well go down in that constituency as he gets some tacticals.

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/PA/status/857592328852209664

Part of me wants to speculate its a muslim just so the usuals aren't wrong for once when they say "the right wing, swivel eyed, frothers were..." etc etc

Pulpstar said:

@Richard_Nabavi I think Cambridge deserves it's place up there. In an analysis of results Julian Huppert retained way more of his vote than the average Lib Dem (Save a few Scots).
He has a decent personal vote, and I think the Tory vote share could well go down in that constituency as he gets some tacticals.

Absolutely, but best odds only 1.2.