Hmm... on those spreads I would be a seller of Lib Dem, seller of Labour and seller of UKIP. I would be very reluctant at the moment to go either way on the SNP. This surely means I should be a buyer of Tories but it seems awfully high already...
I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.
Plaid look vulnerable to the Tories to me by the way, with no currently Tory seat amongst Plaid's targets.
Another technical reason to buy the Tories.
Labour might not actually be a sell, but buying Labour is "bold" I think.
Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
I think that's a good piece, and almost certainly correct if the LibDems end the election on 10% of the vote. My guess, however, is that the LibDems will actually end up on 14-15% of the vote. Getting 40-50% more votes increases their seats from 6 or 7 up to 14 to 16.
Hmm... on those spreads I would be a seller of Lib Dem, seller of Labour and seller of UKIP. I would be very reluctant at the moment to go either way on the SNP. This surely means I should be a buyer of Tories but it seems awfully high already...
I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.
If you fancy selling UKIP seats at 0.25, surely you are better off laying them to win a seat on Betfair? You could offer 3/1 and be front of queue
Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
I like my local Lib Dem candidate, he did my family a solid once. No way on gods earth am I risking putting Corbyn and a coalition of clowns anywhere near levers of power.
Trying to win a general election with Corbyn as your leader is a brilliant idea as a guy with impotence wanting to be a porn star.
That article neeeded one of those cool charts we can seen with the likes of the French election where it shows the flow of votes as candidates are removed.
Interesting to hear Angela Merkel saying brexit means brexit therefore go f**k yourselves.
In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.
Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.
Angela Merkel has an election to fight - which she's going to do well before the real negotiations start. Over-interpreting comments made for domestic consumption is not sensible.
This is Roger whose love for the EU is only surpassed by his hatred for the UK
Roger likes part of the Uk - just not the working classes
Interesting to hear Angela Merkel saying brexit means brexit therefore go f**k yourselves.
In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.
Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.
Be more precise in your reporting - no fake news here! Bojo said if the US asked us to attack Syria with them after another nerve gas event - "we would find it difficult to refuse".
Ah, a very different story than the one being presented
If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?
Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.
Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.
Could be embarrassing. I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.
Well Craig Mackinlay's file went to the CPS this week.
This could get very messy.
What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?
Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.
One by one please - name and shame the Tories everyday for as long as it takes (a bit like the Labour front bench resignations) - popcorn time!
Innocent until proven guilty right?
Also I seem to recall both Labour and Lib Dems have their own problems in this area,
I despair that someone thinks CPS brings charges is equivalent to CPS names and shames, because the person who thinks that might be a potential juror. That creep Starmer started all this self-important CPS press conference stuff, and it should be stopped by statute. It makes a mockery of the spirit of the sub judice rules.
Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.
Yeah right...
Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .
Wishful thinking
I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .
Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark? They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie
What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5
Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000
No, it will be an illegitimate child, a child born out of wedlock, or just a child. Taking pleasure in stigmatising it before it is even born takes a very special sort of person. Well done.
What that I can hear....Uncle Lynton telling a minion to fire up the computer he has an idea for a new attack ad....
It is so reassuring to know that Jezza has total confidence that "inspectors" are managing to get around Syria and destroy the stockpiles of chemical weapons. Its a f##king war zone, not a daytrip to beach with a metal detector to look for old coins.
Hmm... on those spreads I would be a seller of Lib Dem, seller of Labour and seller of UKIP. I would be very reluctant at the moment to go either way on the SNP. This surely means I should be a buyer of Tories but it seems awfully high already...
I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.
Plaid look vulnerable to the Tories to me by the way, with no currently Tory seat amongst Plaid's targets.
Another technical reason to buy the Tories.
Labour might not actually be a sell, but buying Labour is "bold" I think.
One thing to remember about the small West Wales seats is .... candidates matter.
Gwynedd (Dwyfor Meirionnydd & Arfon) voted Remain, Carmarthen East voted Leave.
To take them, the Tories -- who are in third place in Arfon and Carmarthen East -- will need both stupendous candidates & campaigns.
It is more likely that the Tories take Ynys Mon from third, as there is a big UKIP vote to squeeze there. Still think PC are favourites in Ynys Mon (Leave & Remain 50:50)
@BBCTimDonovan: Blessing of UKIP given to @BorisJohnson in Uxbridge - no candidate came forward at branch meeting last night to challenge him #GE2017
Has Nuttall decided where to stand, or like most other Kippers, he’s sitting this one out?
Not standing against Leave MPs is totally the right thing for UKIP to do. The whole reason for their existence was to ensure we left the EU. If we had lost the referendum, they would no doubt have gained more support and won more seats, but they shouldn't be greed, just accept victory!
Target that Remain voting, Bridge non preventer in Thurrock!
What that I can hear....Uncle Lynton telling a minion to fire up the computer he has an idea for a new attack ad....
It is so reassuring to know that Jezza has total confidence that "inspectors" are managing to get around Syria and destroy the stockpiles of chemical weapons. Its a f##king war zone, not a daytrip to beach with a metal detector to look for old coins.
The cops can deal with the stockpiles while they are out there arresting Jihadis and bringing them to trial, surely?
What that I can hear....Uncle Lynton telling a minion to fire up the computer he has an idea for a new attack ad....
It is so reassuring to know that Jezza has total confidence that "inspectors" are managing to get around Syria and destroy the stockpiles of chemical weapons. Its a f##king war zone, not a daytrip to beach with a metal detector to look for old coins.
I agree w Jez
The fact that the East London doctor, now struck off, who was tried for kidnapping John Cantlie keeps churning out youtube propaganda videos from Syria makes me smell a rat/spaniel whatever the saying is
If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?
Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.
Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.
What constrains them to decide before polling day?
Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.
You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.
In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.
According to the Guardian's report at the time the extension was granted the original deadline was 12th June 2016. The new deadline is therefore 12th June 2017, a few days AFTER the election. The CPS therefore do NOT have to come to a decision before polling day.
Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?
Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.
Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.
What constrains them to decide before polling day?
Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.
You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.
In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.
According to the Guardian's report at the time the extension was granted the original deadline was 12th June 2016. The new deadline is therefore 12th June 2017, a few days AFTER the election. The CPS therefore do NOT have to come to a decision before polling day.
The 12th of June deadline is just for Kent Police, other forces have different deadlines.
Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.
Yeah right...
Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .
Wishful thinking
I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .
Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark? They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie
What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5
Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000
Much of the UKIP vote came from the Lib Dems not the Conservatives 1/2 and 6/4 if I were a bookie .
Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.
Yeah right...
Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .
Wishful thinking
I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .
Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark? They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie
What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5
Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000
Brake looks vulnerable to my eyes.
I think we will gain Bermondsey & then Twickenham BEFORE holding Carshalton.
Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.
Yeah right...
Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .
Wishful thinking
I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .
Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark? They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie
What abt Carshalton&Wallington where the LDs are 1/3 and the Tories 9/5
Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000
Much of the UKIP vote came from the Lib Dems not the Conservatives 1/2 and 6/4 if I were a bookie .
It is literally underneath my window. A man has been arrested - there's a bag on the crossing at Parliament Street and a bunch of knives on the ground. Seems it's all over whatever it is. Move along people, move along.
Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results.
The danger of selling UKIP is that they might pick up an odd seat on very local circumstances even as their vote share craters. I'm not expecting it but stranger things have happened. Anyway, I'm not betting on UKIP either way this time. They haven't proved revenue positive for me in the past.
At present the Conservative buy and Labour sell prices both assume that the polls are going to get better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour and/or that uniform national swing is unreliable. Actually, I tend to agree but I'm glad I sold Labour a few seats higher. The market seems to be getting quite a bit ahead of itself purely on sentiment at present.
Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.
Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.
Yeah right...
Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .
Wishful thinking
I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .
Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark? They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie
What happened to the PBer that was a Tory candidate for that seat. Ex RAF think his name was RikW ?
Ignore my link below. The guy who had the clearest photo of the incident has deleted the picture and doing his nut on media organizations who are embedding his tweet such as the Telegraph.
Key points, running contrary to some comment on here:
The Remain vote is less likely to drive voting intention than the Leave one, and, consequently,
The Lib Dems would be reduced to 6 MPs on current ICM polling.
The even keyer point is that electoral politics is entirely zero-sum. If the Conservatives gain votes from any party they improve their position against all parties. So the Lib Dems don't have to do anything wrong, maybe even a bit ahead, but they will lose against Conservatives picking up votes from Labour and particularly UKIP.
I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results.... [snip]
The really odd thing is that the bookies don't seem to be consistent in their LibDem figures. What are the seats that would make up a LibDem total of (say) 15, let alone 26? Well, surely Twickenham, for example, would be one their easiest targets, yet you can get 1.73 on them there. A simple strategy of betting on Vince and also on LD total less than 25.5 at 1.83 looks like a case where you couldn't lose both bets, and you'd very probably win both. And there are longer-odds seats where the same principle, albeit with a bit less certainty, applies
Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.
But on the subject of terrorism, violence, supporting our nation's enemies, etc he is still ery vulnerable. I don't think Joe Average Voter has fully clocked his backstory yet.
Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
Do I detect a touch of Ruth weariness?
Not at all. I am however weary of the polarisation of our politics, principally in respect of Independence but also in respect of the EU.
I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results.... [snip]
The really odd thing is that the bookies don't seem to be consistent in their LibDem figures. What are the seats that would make up a LibDem total of (say) 15, let alone 26? Well, surely Twickenham, for example, would be one their easiest targets, yet you can get 1.73 on them there. A simple strategy of betting on Vince and also on LD total less than 25.5 at 1.83 looks like a case where you couldn't lose both bets, and you'd very probably win both. And there are longer-odds seats where the same principle, albeit with a bit less certainty, applies
I came up with the following seat order applying a split remain/leave UNS for the first 20 seats in order (No corrections for Scotland, I have backed Fife and Edi West but not Dunbartonshire off the back of Holyrood results.
Sheffield Hallam Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland <- Should be top of the pile Bermondsey & Old Southwark Dunbartonshire East Norfolk North Edinburgh West <- Holyrood indicates a goody Cardiff Central Burnley <- 3 way possibly Southport Bristol West <- Green potential challenge Carshalton & Wallington Fife North East <- Holyrood indicates a goody Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes
Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
Do I detect a touch of Ruth weariness?
Not at all. I am however weary of the polarisation of our politics, principally in respect of Independence but also in respect of the EU.
I'm afraid that's the result of 30 years of propaganda against the EU. If you put at risk the constitutional framework that allowed the UK to maintain stability, don't be surprised if the whole thing breaks.
Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.
But on the subject of terrorism, violence, supporting our nation's enemies, etc he is still ery vulnerable. I don't think Joe Average Voter has fully clocked his backstory yet.
For most voters it will be ancient history, and is probably priced in anyway. However, I was talking specifically about Middle East adventurism, where the Conservative campaign risks overplaying its hand. Look at the comments on Guido's blog -- hardly Momentum Central. Presumably Boris is flying a kite for Lynton Crosby and I suspect we'll not hear much more on this.
Labour strategists aren’t concerned about these attacks: they believe that Corbyn’s long record of making what they regard as the right judgments on foreign policy issues, including opposing the Iraq war as a Labour backbencher, will serve him well; and the perception of him as weak on national security is already “priced in”, so no new revelations will hurt him.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
Fancy Tony Blair back? Thought not. After Iraq (and possibly before) there is not much appetite for blowing up sand dunes. Corbyn is vulnerable on defending this country but not so much on invading Syria.
But on the subject of terrorism, violence, supporting our nation's enemies, etc he is still ery vulnerable. I don't think Joe Average Voter has fully clocked his backstory yet.
Joe Average Voter will find out about Jezza's backstory over the coming weeks. Lynton Crosby will make sure of it.
Taking the midpoint of those estimates (Con 387, Lab 163, SNP 48, Lib Dem 27, Others 25) which would give a Conservative majority of 124, the estimated vote shares (according to UK-Elect) would be Con 44%, Lab 27%, UKIP 11%, Lib Dem 7%, SNP 4%, Green 3%, Others 4% (Con lead of 17%, 5% swing from Lab to Con)
Salmond and Davidson are basically doing a rerun of NI playing the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP respectively. Scottish politics is being driven to the extremes on both sides of the independence argument and it suits the main players for that to happen. Anyone in the middle gets squashed.
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
Do I detect a touch of Ruth weariness?
Not at all. I am however weary of the polarisation of our politics, principally in respect of Independence but also in respect of the EU.
I'm afraid that's the result of 30 years of propaganda against the EU. If you put at risk the constitutional framework that allowed the UK to maintain stability, don't be surprised if the whole thing breaks.
It is absurd to blame one side only in such a scenario. If Cameron had been treated with respect and there had been a willingness to grasp any of the many issues screaming out for reform in an EU structure no longer fit for purpose after its expansion we would not be here. But there wasn't. So we are.
Over in America i see the Republicans now have a Obamacare repeal bill that is nasty enough for the Freedom caucus but radioactive slime for GOP moderates in marginal seats.
Brilliantly it does away with the previous existing condition clause for the general public but keeps it for Congressional healthcare.
I came up with the following seat order applying a split remain/leave UNS for the first 20 seats in order (No corrections for Scotland, I have backed Fife and Edi West but not Dunbartonshire off the back of Holyrood results.
Sheffield Hallam Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland <- Should be top of the pile Bermondsey & Old Southwark Dunbartonshire East Norfolk North Edinburgh West <- Holyrood indicates a goody Cardiff Central Burnley <- 3 way possibly Southport Bristol West <- Green potential challenge Carshalton & Wallington Fife North East <- Holyrood indicates a goody Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes</p>
Yes, that's exactly the kind of thing I mean. Of course there are local factors to take into account; holding Southport (your number 13) is probably not as easy as the raw numbers would suggest because John Pugh is standing down, and conversely Twickenham is probably an easier gain because of the Vince name factor. Bermondsey & Old Southwark is another one where the odds look very good.
Taking the midpoint of those estimates (Con 387, Lab 163, SNP 48, Lib Dem 27, Others 25) which would give a Conservative majority of 124, the estimated vote shares (according to UK-Elect) would be Con 44%, Lab 27%, UKIP 11%, Lib Dem 7%, SNP 4%, Green 3%, Others 4% (Con lead of 17%, 5% swing from Lab to Con)
Lib Dem 27 on 7% compared to 8 on 8%, doesn't sound right. Also UKIP on 11% sounds wrong.
@Richard_Nabavi I think Cambridge deserves it's place up there. In an analysis of results Julian Huppert retained way more of his vote than the average Lib Dem (Save a few Scots). He has a decent personal vote, and I think the Tory vote share could well go down in that constituency as he gets some tacticals.
data collected Sun-Mon (23-24 Apr): two polls: 61%-39%; -"- Sun-Tue (23-25 Apr): 60%-40%; -"- Mon-Wed (24-26 Apr): 59%-41%.
If we assume things stayed flat on Sun (polling day) and Mon (does political buyer's remorse happen so fast?), and that within each poll the daily amount of data collected didn't vary (very iffy assumptions, I know), then Macron's score fell from 61% to 58% between Mon and Tue.
Ifop's data shows Macron's score increasing slightly.
Meanwhile, Macron's team are complaining about Russian infowar. They are right: of course he's a target. But whingeing never won any votes, and anyone who has studied psychological warfare properly knows that denouncing the enemy's campaign directed at your own population usually achieves less than nothing, being welcomed by the enemy. (Think "fifth column".)
Part of me wants to speculate its a muslim just so the usuals aren't wrong for once when they say "the right wing, swivel eyed, frothers were..." etc etc
I'm returning to the subject of the Lib Dems when I get time to put together another post, but in summary I fundamentally see them as a sell at 20, never mind 26. The only reason for not selling more now is that the sandalistas are likely to get excited in response to good local election results.... [snip]
The really odd thing is that the bookies don't seem to be consistent in their LibDem figures. What are the seats that would make up a LibDem total of (say) 15, let alone 26? Well, surely Twickenham, for example, would be one their easiest targets, yet you can get 1.73 on them there. A simple strategy of betting on Vince and also on LD total less than 25.5 at 1.83 looks like a case where you couldn't lose both bets, and you'd very probably win both. And there are longer-odds seats where the same principle, albeit with a bit less certainty, applies
I came up with the following seat order applying a split remain/leave UNS for the first 20 seats in order (No corrections for Scotland, I have backed Fife and Edi West but not Dunbartonshire off the back of Holyrood results.
Sheffield Hallam Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland <- Should be top of the pile Bermondsey & Old Southwark Dunbartonshire East Norfolk North Edinburgh West <- Holyrood indicates a goody Cardiff Central Burnley <- 3 way possibly Southport Bristol West <- Green potential challenge Carshalton & Wallington Fife North East <- Holyrood indicates a goody Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes</p>
I cannot see the LDs winning Bermondsey. Bermondsey is not a Liberal seat. It became one on the back of an infamous by-election and was kept on because of Simon Hughes.
However, he kept losing his majority bit by bit until it went. Even though Hughes is back, remember it was him who lost it. I cannot believe the voters will get him back.
In any case, the LD vote share is not very different from 2015.
Kingston and Surbiton ? There will be a swing of, at least, two votes.
@Richard_Nabavi I think Cambridge deserves it's place up there. In an analysis of results Julian Huppert retained way more of his vote than the average Lib Dem (Save a few Scots). He has a decent personal vote, and I think the Tory vote share could well go down in that constituency as he gets some tacticals.
Taking the midpoint of those estimates (Con 387, Lab 163, SNP 48, Lib Dem 27, Others 25) which would give a Conservative majority of 124, the estimated vote shares (according to UK-Elect) would be Con 44%, Lab 27%, UKIP 11%, Lib Dem 7%, SNP 4%, Green 3%, Others 4% (Con lead of 17%, 5% swing from Lab to Con)
Lib Dem 27 on 7% compared to 8 on 8%, doesn't sound right. Also UKIP on 11% sounds wrong.
Comments
Another technical reason to buy the Tories.
Labour might not actually be a sell, but buying Labour is "bold" I think.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
Trying to win a general election with Corbyn as your leader is a brilliant idea as a guy with impotence wanting to be a porn star.
I like my local Lib Dem candidate, he did my family a solid once. No way on gods earth am I risking putting Corbyn and a coalition of clowns anywhere near levers of power.
This picture could run and run
Also I seem to recall both Labour and Lib Dems have their own problems in this area,
I note Paddy Power has knocked their SNP line back to 48.5, what a gift 51.5 was.
Even more generous than the Scot Nats were offering @Scott_P here.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/analysis-conservatives-can-take-nine-seats-snp-2017-general/#comments
Looks like a win...
Tories to win more seats than New Labour, LibDems down to 6....
Big UKIP vote to possibly come home there of over 7000
https://order-order.com/2017/04/27/corbyn-not-sure-assad-regime-carried-chemical-attack/
It is so reassuring to know that Jezza has total confidence that "inspectors" are managing to get around Syria and destroy the stockpiles of chemical weapons. Its a f##king war zone, not a daytrip to beach with a metal detector to look for old coins.
Gwynedd (Dwyfor Meirionnydd & Arfon) voted Remain, Carmarthen East voted Leave.
To take them, the Tories -- who are in third place in Arfon and Carmarthen East -- will need both stupendous candidates & campaigns.
It is more likely that the Tories take Ynys Mon from third, as there is a big UKIP vote to squeeze there. Still think PC are favourites in Ynys Mon (Leave & Remain 50:50)
Hard for Nicola to spin that as a success for her
Target that Remain voting, Bridge non preventer in Thurrock!
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/857587646918512640
The fact that the East London doctor, now struck off, who was tried for kidnapping John Cantlie keeps churning out youtube propaganda videos from Syria makes me smell a rat/spaniel whatever the saying is
If the Tories take 8 seats off the SNP, Tories win and SNP lose.
If the SNP take no seats off the Tories, they don't win anything they didn't already have
Its a slightly concerning development for those such as myself for whom the Union is more important than any party.
They also believe that the public are turned off by May’s gung-ho approach to Britain’s defence, with Fallon even suggesting that she would be willing to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. And they hope Corbyn will come across as reasonable, and thereby strike a chord with voters. Labour also intends to spend as much time as possible on the campaign trail talking about policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/mugwump-attack-lynton-crosby-fingerprints-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn
Well its a view I suppose.
I think we will gain Bermondsey & then Twickenham BEFORE holding Carshalton.
The Remain vote is less likely to drive voting intention than the Leave one, and, consequently,
The Lib Dems would be reduced to 6 MPs on current ICM polling.
Theresa May has no blame in this and I am certain she will state that all her mps deny all charges
At this point it becomes sub judice and comments made would have to be measured against contempt of court
The danger of selling UKIP is that they might pick up an odd seat on very local circumstances even as their vote share craters. I'm not expecting it but stranger things have happened. Anyway, I'm not betting on UKIP either way this time. They haven't proved revenue positive for me in the past.
At present the Conservative buy and Labour sell prices both assume that the polls are going to get better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour and/or that uniform national swing is unreliable. Actually, I tend to agree but I'm glad I sold Labour a few seats higher. The market seems to be getting quite a bit ahead of itself purely on sentiment at present.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/armed-police-westminster-arrest-man-backpack-knives/
Con 408
Lab 164
Lib Dem 9
I think selling Labour assumes things are worse for them than UNS, however buying the Tories does not.
I presume he wants a payday for his photo.
Sheffield Hallam
Leeds North West
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Cambridge
Ceredigion
Orkney & Shetland <- Should be top of the pile
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Dunbartonshire East
Norfolk North
Edinburgh West <- Holyrood indicates a goody
Cardiff Central
Burnley <- 3 way possibly
Southport
Bristol West <- Green potential challenge
Carshalton & Wallington
Fife North East <- Holyrood indicates a goody
Twickenham
Hornsey & Wood Green
Lewes
I know the greens have withdrawn their candidate but even in 2015 labour+green+libdem<tory+ukip.
unless libdems withdraw too I can only see an increased tory majority here.
Brilliantly it does away with the previous existing condition clause for the general public but keeps it for Congressional healthcare.
He has a decent personal vote, and I think the Tory vote share could well go down in that constituency as he gets some tacticals.
data collected Sun-Mon (23-24 Apr): two polls: 61%-39%;
-"- Sun-Tue (23-25 Apr): 60%-40%;
-"- Mon-Wed (24-26 Apr): 59%-41%.
If we assume things stayed flat on Sun (polling day) and Mon (does political buyer's remorse happen so fast?), and that within each poll the daily amount of data collected didn't vary (very iffy assumptions, I know), then Macron's score fell from 61% to 58% between Mon and Tue.
Ifop's data shows Macron's score increasing slightly.
Meanwhile, Macron's team are complaining about Russian infowar. They are right: of course he's a target. But whingeing never won any votes, and anyone who has studied psychological warfare properly knows that denouncing the enemy's campaign directed at your own population usually achieves less than nothing, being welcomed by the enemy. (Think "fifth column".)
Report by Trend Micro on "two years of Pawn Storm".
However, he kept losing his majority bit by bit until it went. Even though Hughes is back, remember it was him who lost it. I cannot believe the voters will get him back.
In any case, the LD vote share is not very different from 2015.
Kingston and Surbiton ? There will be a swing of, at least, two votes.