Sky broadcasting total bullshit from Isis supporter who now wants to come back to the uk...I didn't know, I didn't fight, I only went to live under pure Islamic laws...
I'm on Burnley, but also Cheadle, and Bath (the latter before candidate changed her mind).
Bath comes in at number 32 and Cheadle number 36. In the forecast they are 16 points behind the Conservatives in Cheadle.
Incidentally Richmond Park is number 258, which probably explains why Betfair/Paddy opened at 33/1.
Clearly you need to treat these purely mechanical forecasts with many pinches of salt. The main purpose I use them for is modelling my expected betting profit/loss at various seat levels. For example, if I want to see what my expected outcome is if the LibDems get 20 seats, I figure out the P+L of any seat-band and spread bets, and then use a sorted list like this to work out which constituency bets might be expected to be won or lost. Obviously it's not perfect, because seats don't fall neatly in order, but it helps manage my exposure and avoid doubling up on bets which are actually heavily correlated.
Regarding yesterday's YouGov numbers - apologies if anybody else has already pointed this out, but I'm reasonably confident that this poll is an outlier.
There's been a quite evident trend in the YouGov numbers recently of Labour support amongst men bumping along somewhere just above 20%. I've noticed that it's the support of women that appears to have been keeping Labour's VI numbers up as high as 24-25% recently and, given Labour's abysmal performance with older voters, I surmised that this was down mainly to younger women. Then, in a recent analysis (which was a subject of a posting on PB, IIRC,) YouGov said that they suspected as much themselves.
But now, we have this new poll in which Labour support amongst women remains static, but that amongst men has suddenly jumped by 8% relative to the last poll - accounting for Labour's entire 4% overall improvement. This is very strange.
If, by some chance, Labour's message is achieving cut-through then I can see no compelling reason why its support should jump by such a huge amount (equivalent to the entire Ukip total) amongst men, and yet have moved not one iota amongst women, in the space of a couple of days.
My expectation would therefore be that the next set of YouGov numbers will revert to somewhere close to the trend of the last month or so (he says, preparing to wipe egg from face...) Unless they've made a very large correction to their weighting of the responses of male voters between this latest poll and the one immediately prior to it, I can't see how the most recent survey is likely to be anything other than a rogue.
It isn't just men overall, it's men of working age (25-64).
They had a struggle getting men to respond - only 40% of the sample - and they are light on male respondents of mid/lower education aged 25-49.
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
OT but my parking charge from a hospital visit from the other day has been cancelled after appealing the company - thanks to all for their advice on what to include.
OT but my parking charge from a hospital visit from the other day has been cancelled after appealing the company - thanks to all for their advice on what to include.
LibDem top 30 existing seats and targets, sorted by forecast majority/the amount by which they fail to get a majority, based on the Electoral Calculus model's forecast as at today (which shows the LibDems ending up with 9 in total):
Westmorland and Lonsdale Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam Ceredigion Orkney and Shetland Cambridge Norfolk North Dunbartonshire East Burnley --------------- Below this line the LibDems don't quite make it in the forecast -------- Bermondsey and Old Southwark Edinburgh West Carshalton and Wallington Southport Cardiff Central Fife North East Eastbourne Twickenham Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Lewes Bristol West Thornbury and Yate Birmingham Yardley Ross Skye and Lochaber Kingston and Surbiton Bradford East St Ives Gordon Torbay Sutton and Cheam Argyll and Bute
This is broadly similar to @Pulpstar's list but I don't think takes account of differential Leave/Remain flows.
Is this based entirely on UNS? Anyhow, the order is rather strange.
I don't imagine that the Lib Dems would find themselves getting closer to overthrowing Alex Salmond in Gordon than to capturing Sutton & Cheam, for example...
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
It's the age at which things began, not merely that younger man older woman would provoke more comment anyway. But it's a known story which if anyone in France cared it'd have had an impact already.
Sky broadcasting total bullshit from Isis supporter who now wants to come back to the uk...I didn't know, I didn't fight, I only went to live under pure Islamic laws...
I really don't know why HMG is fighting the air pollution case.
Yes, politically, I feel it really is none of the EU's business, but don't we all want clean air?
Do we want to be forced into expensive programs re diesel cars limiting their use in cities? I don't really see what else is going to work and it is not particularly politically friendly in an election period.
I'd prefer petrol, but electric transport, hybrids and hydrogen cell tech is improving all the time.
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
I think not quite. The Macrons are 25 years and the Trumps 24. But I take your point.
I really don't know why HMG is fighting the air pollution case.
Yes, politically, I feel it really is none of the EU's business, but don't we all want clean air?
Do we want to be forced into expensive programs re diesel cars limiting their use in cities? I don't really see what else is going to work and it is not particularly politically friendly in an election period.
I'd prefer petrol, but electric transport, hybrids and hydrogen cell tech is improving all the time.
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
I've bought Tory seats on the spreads so any bad news can wait till after the election
Is this based entirely on UNS? Anyhow, the order is rather strange.
I don't imagine that the Lib Dems would find themselves getting closer to overthrowing Alex Salmond in Gordon than to capturing Sutton & Cheam, for example...
Gov been refused leave to appeal so now has to apply to Appeal court for permission #airpollution
Judge said sec of state for environment Andrea Leadsom was in breach of court order
Couldn't make it up. Pathetic ! Incompetent !
Over egging it a bit aren't you? Its silly and incompetent, but 'couldn't make it up'? I feel like there are worse stories every week about governments of any stripe making these sort of blunders.
Sky broadcasting total bullshit from Isis supporter who now wants to come back to the uk...I didn't know, I didn't fight, I only went to live under pure Islamic laws...
Ukip’s north-east regional chairman, Steve Turner, has defected to the Conservative party
What a fine principled, patriotic, lion of a man.
What I don't understand is why the Conservative Party accept these people as members . Once a rat always a rat and many of them are re ratting for the 2nd time .
Ukip’s north-east regional chairman, Steve Turner, has defected to the Conservative party
What a fine principled, patriotic, lion of a man.
What I don't understand is why the Conservative Party accept these people as members . Once a rat always a rat and many of them are re ratting for the 2nd time .
Churchill ratted a few times.
We're hoping one of them turns out to be the new Churchill.
I really don't know why HMG is fighting the air pollution case.
Yes, politically, I feel it really is none of the EU's business, but don't we all want clean air?
Do we want to be forced into expensive programs re diesel cars limiting their use in cities? I don't really see what else is going to work and it is not particularly politically friendly in an election period.
I'd prefer petrol, but electric transport, hybrids and hydrogen cell tech is improving all the time.
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
Oh I agree and we have hardly been fast off the mark here. The problems with diesel have been evident for ages. But trying to deal with something as contentious as this in an election period is sub optimal. I can understand why the government asked for the delay.
Is this based entirely on UNS? Anyhow, the order is rather strange.
I don't imagine that the Lib Dems would find themselves getting closer to overthrowing Alex Salmond in Gordon than to capturing Sutton & Cheam, for example...
I agree that some of the forecasts look a bit odd. Mind you, it's particularly difficult comparing Scottish and English/Welsh seats.
The Lib Dems are a touch unfortunate that Corbyn is the Labour leader in terms of Tory targeting. If an Ed Miliband mark2 was running again I think the ground would be more favourable. The 11% polling wouldn't favour May over Ed by greater than a 2:1 ratio.
I really don't know why HMG is fighting the air pollution case.
Yes, politically, I feel it really is none of the EU's business, but don't we all want clean air?
Do we want to be forced into expensive programs re diesel cars limiting their use in cities? I don't really see what else is going to work and it is not particularly politically friendly in an election period.
I'd prefer petrol, but electric transport, hybrids and hydrogen cell tech is improving all the time.
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
I've bought Tory seats on the spreads so any bad news can wait till after the election
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
It's the age at which things began, not merely that younger man older woman would provoke more comment anyway. But it's a known story which if anyone in France cared it'd have had an impact already.
Yes, my impression is that the French worry much less than us about the sex lives of their politicans, but are much sterner in respect of financial improprieties.
I really don't know why HMG is fighting the air pollution case.
Yes, politically, I feel it really is none of the EU's business, but don't we all want clean air?
Do we want to be forced into expensive programs re diesel cars limiting their use in cities? I don't really see what else is going to work and it is not particularly politically friendly in an election period.
I'd prefer petrol, but electric transport, hybrids and hydrogen cell tech is improving all the time.
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
I've bought Tory seats on the spreads so any bad news can wait till after the election
What level are you in at?
£10 a seat @ 384. Main betting is constituency, and fixed seat bands/ o/u.
The Conservatives will have nowhere to hide after the GE and will have to maintain a huge tent of a coalition through the Brexit process and beyond. Inevitably things will happen, things won't happen and mistakes will be made and the potential pool of disillusioned Conservatives on whom the LDs can draw from say mid 2018 onwards will be considerable.
One day too Labour will get its act together and there will come an election where it will be the Conservatives who will be on the edge of disaster much as they were this time 20 years ago.
I agree with the first bit, not the second bit.
The referendum in Scotland has split the vote neatly on for or against lines. SNP or Tory. Scottish Labour couldn't decide, and were crushed, with no obvious revival in sight.
The referendum in the UK will have the same effect. For Brexit will vote Tory, against will vote Lib Dem. Labour have opted for the 0% strategy. Again. There is no reason to assume they will revive from that.
Once Brexit has happened it will pretty much cease to be a live political issue, unless it comes to be blamed for any recession that happens at around the same time.
There is no particular reason to assume that Labour will recover. It would be a surprise if the failure of many Labour MPs, or other senior figures on the party's centre and right, to give Corbyn their backing did not result in the creation of a deep well of bitterness from which the party will drink for some considerable time, to their considerable detriment.
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
It isn't just men overall, it's men of working age (25-64).
They had a struggle getting men to respond - only 40% of the sample - and they are light on male respondents of mid/lower education aged 25-49.
It might be an explanation.
I hadn't spotted that they were so underweight on male respondents. It might very well have something to do with it.
On the broader point of Labour's slight firming up in the polls - and it appears that such a thing may indeed by happening - I can see that they could be profiting from a small minority of the mass defectors from Ukip, and they're almost certainly squeezing the Greens - but I'd be surprised if they were making any headway against the Tories. I can see the position re-stabilising at somewhere in the ballpark of Con 47-48%, Lab 26-27%, Lib Dem 10-11%, Ukip 5-6%, Green 2-3%.
Any further movements are then likely to depend on who has the most successful campaign with the public. Either the "Aren't the Tories awful, don't give them a landslide" narrative could win out, in which case we might see a little Con-Lab movement in the polls, and evidence of more fraying at the edges of the Tory bloc in the form of tactical voting on the big day; or the "Jeremy Corbyn is a dangerous terrorist sympathiser, and his party can't be trusted either having elected him" narrative will win out, in which case further bleeding from Labour to all of the other parties will occur.
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
Only because Corbyn is such a massive ****
If he had resigned after the vote of no confidence, as anyone with a shred of decency would have done, their actions would have saved the party
Once Brexit has happened it will pretty much cease to be a live political issue, unless it comes to be blamed for any recession that happens at around the same time.
Look at the extent to which relations with the EU dominate the politics of the surrounding European countries that are not members. It will always be a live issue.
"Brigitte has refused to reveal when the unlikely pair first became intimate, proclaiming it 'our secret'."
"'Nobody will ever know at what moment our story became a love story. That belongs to us. That is our secret,' she said."
The age of consent in France when one party has authority over the other - for instance, if they are their schoolteacher - is 18.
Good afternoon all. Just popping in to say hello and thank you to all for your very kind words to me. Much appreciated.
I am slowly recuperating. The garden is getting a lot of TLC and I am listening to much music. Really, what else does one need?
Just to be a tad waspish, Madame Macron would be well advised to wear dresses with sleeves.
good to see you back. Thinks she looks pretty good for her age doesn't she? Must be mid 60s.
Not sure what the exact age gap is but I understand it is less than that between Mr & Mrs Trump, though for some reason the latter seems to attract less comment.
It's the age at which things began, not merely that younger man older woman would provoke more comment anyway. But it's a known story which if anyone in France cared it'd have had an impact already.
Yes, my impression is that the French worry much less than us about the sex lives of their politicans, but are much sterner in respect of financial improprieties.
Err did Fillon not come a pretty respectable 3rd just recently when under criminal investigation for paying his wife a lot of taxpayers money for nothing. And Mitterand. And Chirac? Having a conviction for financial impropriety seems a badge of honour in France.
@rosschawkins: Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Christ on a bike Theresa say something interesting FFS
When's the tory manifesto? Her Downing Street speech when she took up the post as PM suggested she in theory might have an interesting direction to take the tories in, but not a fat lot has happened since.
Some new policies please! Or at the very least some new bloody catchphrases... 6 more weeks of this gah....
The Conservatives will have nowhere to hide after the GE and will have to maintain a huge tent of a coalition through the Brexit process and beyond. Inevitably things will happen, things won't happen and mistakes will be made and the potential pool of disillusioned Conservatives on whom the LDs can draw from say mid 2018 onwards will be considerable.
One day too Labour will get its act together and there will come an election where it will be the Conservatives who will be on the edge of disaster much as they were this time 20 years ago.
I agree with the first bit, not the second bit.
The referendum in Scotland has split the vote neatly on for or against lines. SNP or Tory. Scottish Labour couldn't decide, and were crushed, with no obvious revival in sight.
The referendum in the UK will have the same effect. For Brexit will vote Tory, against will vote Lib Dem. Labour have opted for the 0% strategy. Again. There is no reason to assume they will revive from that.
Once Brexit has happened it will pretty much cease to be a live political issue, unless it comes to be blamed for any recession that happens at around the same time.
There is no particular reason to assume that Labour will recover. It would be a surprise if the failure of many Labour MPs, or other senior figures on the party's centre and right, to give Corbyn their backing did not result in the creation of a deep well of bitterness from which the party will drink for some considerable time, to their considerable detriment.
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
On your first point, we could easily be talking five years, under the sort of transitional exit the PM is rumoured to be considering. And, of course, Brexit is arguably a symptom of new fracture lines emerging in politics, rather than simply a black swan event to be weathered before normality returns.
The Liberals in the 1920/30s thought they would recover, but never did. Labour has the comparative advantage of a stronger geographical base, but there is no obvious route that necessarily delivers them majority power in the future, as you say. They might split, whether Corbyn stays or goes. Or it might simply prove impossible to reconstruct the coalition of Guardian readers, blue collar trade union members and ethnic minority voters that was the old Labour big tent.
@rosschawkins: Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Christ on a bike Theresa say something interesting FFS
When's the tory manifesto? Her Downing Street speech when she took up the post as PM suggested she in theory might have an interesting direction to take the tories in, but not a fat lot has happened since.
Some new policies please! Or at the very least some new bloody catchphrases... 6 more weeks of this gah....
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
Only because Corbyn is such a massive ****
If he had resigned after the vote of no confidence, as anyone with a shred of decency would have done, their actions would have saved the party
Yes, it's hard to imagine anyone as principled as Foot not standing down in similar circumstances, but comparisons between him and Corbyn shouldn't be carried too far.
Foot was an eminent politician with a strong track record. He wasn't the problem. It was the Party, which had been heavily infiltrated by Marxists and Communists. He was the wrong leader for that time, because he either wouldn't or couldn't stand up to them and clean out the stables. Had he led a more typical social democratic Labour Party largely free of what were highly alien elements, he would have been fine.
I'm not sure what sort of Party Corbyn would be fine leading.
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
Only because Corbyn is such a massive ****
If he had resigned after the vote of no confidence, as anyone with a shred of decency would have done, their actions would have saved the party
@rosschawkins: Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Can someone change her battery as the robotic language is begining to grate a bit .
No :-)
The whole point of May's campaign is to be serious, solid, managerial and dull. Most people don't want further political excitement at present, and certainly not of the variety that Jeremy Corbyn and friends are offering.
@rosschawkins: Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Christ on a bike Theresa say something interesting FFS
When's the tory manifesto? Her Downing Street speech when she took up the post as PM suggested she in theory might have an interesting direction to take the tories in, but not a fat lot has happened since.
Some new policies please! Or at the very least some new bloody catchphrases... 6 more weeks of this gah....
There will be a manifesto in a few weeks.
She is working for Lynton. His basic operadi is to have a simple message and then repeat until anyone, other than an average voter who zones politics out 99% of the time, ears bleed.
"In January 2017 Corbyn declared himself in favour of a maximum wage (miraculously “somewhat higher” than the £138,000 he himself earns). His shadow chancellor John McDonnell wants to raise taxes on those earning above £70,000 (miraculously just above his personal salary…). "
@joncraig: Staff in Parliament told by sec sources police were tipped off about man arrested in Whitehall by his family, which probably saved his life.
I've got that as an almost certain Tory gain if either no, or a low profile kipper runs there.
IMO the only seats UKIP can win are Hartlepool, Thurrock and Dagenham. although I haven't really looked into other possibilities that hard.
Aha Boston and Skegness... the Sitting Tory was a Remainer, 4.3k majority over UKIP, the rest nowhere
Could take on Remainer Tolhurst in Rochester?
I'd have thought you'd want him to plump for Dagenham
I think it is better to have a local who has fought the seat before. The UKIP fellow in Daggers is the candidate from 2010, Peter Harris. Thurrock hasn't been announced yet, but I think Tim Aker would probably do as well if not better.
Michael Dugher said UKIP got 10k* in his seat last time without trying.. he is standing down, could that be one?
*EDIT although they only got 9k!
I know the local Labour Party are not happy with Tom Watsons ex girlfriend been forced on them. I can't imagine the voters of Barnsley East been positive about it.
Foot was an eminent politician with a strong track record. He wasn't the problem. It was the Party, which had been heavily infiltrated by Marxists and Communists. He was the wrong leader for that time, because he either wouldn't or couldn't stand up to them and clean out the stables. Had he led a more typical social democratic Labour Party largely free of what were highly alien elements, he would have been fine.
Foot was also fairly smart, albeit in an impractical, academic manner. Oxford PPE and all that.
@rosschawkins: Radio Derby to PM: Do you know what a mugwump is?
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Can someone change her battery as the robotic language is begining to grate a bit .
No :-)
The whole point of May's campaign is to be serious, solid, managerial and dull. Most people don't want further political excitement at present, and certainly not of the variety that Jeremy Corbyn and friends are offering.
Does a Strong and Stable Leader trust our Foreign policy to a clown?
Comments
Rachel's probably chosen the perfect moment to make a stand, because Boris isn't likely to keep his job very much longer.
You win if UKIP fail to reach 15% in any seat
May the best man win!
PM: What I recognise is that what we need in this country is strong and stable leadership
Incidentally Richmond Park is number 258, which probably explains why Betfair/Paddy opened at 33/1.
Clearly you need to treat these purely mechanical forecasts with many pinches of salt. The main purpose I use them for is modelling my expected betting profit/loss at various seat levels. For example, if I want to see what my expected outcome is if the LibDems get 20 seats, I figure out the P+L of any seat-band and spread bets, and then use a sorted list like this to work out which constituency bets might be expected to be won or lost. Obviously it's not perfect, because seats don't fall neatly in order, but it helps manage my exposure and avoid doubling up on bets which are actually heavily correlated.
They had a struggle getting men to respond - only 40% of the sample - and they are light on male respondents of mid/lower education aged 25-49.
It might be an explanation.
As I understand it...
I don't imagine that the Lib Dems would find themselves getting closer to overthrowing Alex Salmond in Gordon than to capturing Sutton & Cheam, for example...
And we should care about Boris Johnsons sister because....?
Reminds me of the Blair era where for years we kept having a running commentary about the views of Tony Blair's father-in-law and sister-in-law...
Very feasible to get emissions down inside 10-15 years, and that's what I'd hope we'd be targeting.
It's not like he's 100% constant in his own political opinions, is it?
mugwump
ˈmʌɡwʌmp/
nounNORTH AMERICAN
a person who remains aloof or independent, especially from party politics.
Detectors from the Tory party who time their defection to cause maximum damage to the Tory Party are sub human traitorous pig dogs.
People who defect to the Tory party, fine, patriotic, lions.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html
I agree that some of the forecasts look a bit odd. Mind you, it's particularly difficult comparing Scottish and English/Welsh seats.
We're hoping one of them turns out to be the new Churchill.
The 11% polling wouldn't favour May over Ed by greater than a 2:1 ratio.
Blaydon (31.7% majority): Liz Twist (Gateshead Cllr, ward in the constituency. Worked for Unison)
http://democracy.gateshead.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=140
Durham NW (23.5% majority): Laura Pidcock (Northumberland Cllr)
http://committee.northumberland.gov.uk/Councillor.aspx?cllrID=181
Perhaps you should rebrand as Scott_J.
Yes, my impression is that the French worry much less than us about the sex lives of their politicans, but are much sterner in respect of financial improprieties.
So more like 400 today FWIW
Pope.
There is no particular reason to assume that Labour will recover. It would be a surprise if the failure of many Labour MPs, or other senior figures on the party's centre and right, to give Corbyn their backing did not result in the creation of a deep well of bitterness from which the party will drink for some considerable time, to their considerable detriment.
Tony Blair could understand in 1983 the importance of supporting Michael Foot and the longest suicide note in history for the sake of party unity (and so that the Labour Left would have no-one but themselves to blame for defeat), but he and others don't seem to understand how counter-productive their behaviour since Corbyn's election has been.
On the broader point of Labour's slight firming up in the polls - and it appears that such a thing may indeed by happening - I can see that they could be profiting from a small minority of the mass defectors from Ukip, and they're almost certainly squeezing the Greens - but I'd be surprised if they were making any headway against the Tories. I can see the position re-stabilising at somewhere in the ballpark of Con 47-48%, Lab 26-27%, Lib Dem 10-11%, Ukip 5-6%, Green 2-3%.
Any further movements are then likely to depend on who has the most successful campaign with the public. Either the "Aren't the Tories awful, don't give them a landslide" narrative could win out, in which case we might see a little Con-Lab movement in the polls, and evidence of more fraying at the edges of the Tory bloc in the form of tactical voting on the big day; or the "Jeremy Corbyn is a dangerous terrorist sympathiser, and his party can't be trusted either having elected him" narrative will win out, in which case further bleeding from Labour to all of the other parties will occur.
If he had resigned after the vote of no confidence, as anyone with a shred of decency would have done, their actions would have saved the party
I would have bought Labour at 80 seats
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/857637655080824833
When's the tory manifesto? Her Downing Street speech when she took up the post as PM suggested she in theory might have an interesting direction to take the tories in, but not a fat lot has happened since.
Some new policies please! Or at the very least some new bloody catchphrases... 6 more weeks of this gah....
The Liberals in the 1920/30s thought they would recover, but never did. Labour has the comparative advantage of a stronger geographical base, but there is no obvious route that necessarily delivers them majority power in the future, as you say. They might split, whether Corbyn stays or goes. Or it might simply prove impossible to reconstruct the coalition of Guardian readers, blue collar trade union members and ethnic minority voters that was the old Labour big tent.
Foot was an eminent politician with a strong track record. He wasn't the problem. It was the Party, which had been heavily infiltrated by Marxists and Communists. He was the wrong leader for that time, because he either wouldn't or couldn't stand up to them and clean out the stables. Had he led a more typical social democratic Labour Party largely free of what were highly alien elements, he would have been fine.
I'm not sure what sort of Party Corbyn would be fine leading.
The whole point of May's campaign is to be serious, solid, managerial and dull. Most people don't want further political excitement at present, and certainly not of the variety that Jeremy Corbyn and friends are offering.
At midnight I'll be watching Guardians Of The Galaxy: Volume 2
I merely quote without comment.
She only needs a massive majority if doing something massively unpopular.
@joncraig: Staff in Parliament told by sec sources police were tipped off about man arrested in Whitehall by his family, which probably saved his life.
Corbyn clearly .... isn't.
https://twitter.com/RemainingKind/status/857517858238148608