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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads
Sporting Index CON 384-390 LAB 162-168 LD 26-29 UKIP 0.25-1.25 SNP 47-50
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Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.
I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.
I was thinking
Con - buy
Lab - sell
LD - sell
SNP - Not sure but forced to I'd sell
Can't the tories hide boris johnson until after the election,saying that we would bomb syria if trump asks and wouldn't need parliament vote will surely not go down well with alot of voters.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/857565036532858881
This could get very messy.
What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?
Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.
I have two strats:
(1) Back the dead-certs heavily (Tory majority, May as next PM, Con most seats..)
(2) Look for value in the constituency markets
The other place I've squared out a bit of value is the LD seat bands and Scottish Con seat bands.
I'm alive to other suggestions.
Have the CPS actually said they have to decide before the election? I know of no such declaration or ruling. Does anyone?
https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/857104063485423616
You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.
In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.
https://www.ft.com/content/1d9282b8-2b1f-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.
Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed......
Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak
"I’m out on the streets and the doorsteps and the meeting halls every day and that’s not what I’m finding. I’m finding the enthusiasm of people at the prospect of doing things differently to work for everyone and I’m enjoying it..."
J Corbyn
Mike's certainly right in calling it a high risk:high reward form of betting, bearing in mind that the two major parties are set to win around 550 seats between them and it's a brave punter who will bet on how these spoils will eventually be shared. This also means that unless you are able to open a credit account with the spread-betting firm which for obvious reasons is much more demanding than doing so with a conventional bookie, then you will have to deposit a sum equal to your maximum loss, which can prove very expensive.
Good luck if you decide to have a go, but if this is your first excursion into spread-betting, limit yourself to very small stakes per seat, remembering that your eventual profit could be multiplied 40 - 60 times or potentially a good more than this even. It also means that you'll be stuck in front of the TV screen, watching every single seat result being announced. The spread-betting firms generally stay open for most of the night, enabling you to close your position should you so decide, otherwise your profit/loss will only be decided when every last result has been declared which can take a day or two or in the case of the last GE, a month or two when one candidate unfortunately died in the run-up to polling day and the contest for the seat in question had to re-arranged.
DYOR.
Looking here,
But the police force was granted an extra 12 months to investigate the claims that Mackinlay and his agent exceeded the legal spending limit to win the seat. The one-year time limit to launch potential criminal proceedings relating to the 2015 general election was due to expire on 12 June.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/01/judge-grants-extension-to-police-investigation-into-tory-election
Preferably those with deep pockets.
This could get very messy if charges are brought.
Can you imagine if say a dozen Tory MPs are charged on different days during the last two weeks of the 2017 GE election campaign.
Carnage, utter carnage in the news cycle.
What's the point of a 1 year limit, if they can just extend it to two years anyway?
Should have had a 2 year limit in the first place.
This morning's Yougov hints at huge amounts of uncertainty within the left/remain with the Lib Dems and Greens high on the list.
Only 29% of current Lib Dem pledges describe themselves as certainties to back the LDs.
It gives the impression that left leaning remainers are a bit lost at the moment.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-council-election-turnout-could-rise-thanks-to-indyref2-1-4386857
I think @Marksenior implied tip of selling the Lib Dems after the locals might be a very good one.
Please bear in mind that considerable sums can be lost on this market.
https://twitter.com/jonathanhaynes/status/857536400052416512
God I loathe that man.
The message has been consistent since before the referendum. It's about time Brexiteers understood it.
I think we'll get a few on Saturday night.
Personally I don't think this will make too much difference. The public were angry about expenses as it was seen as MPs stealing from the taxpayer. I can't see people getting as worked up about the Tories spending too much of their money.
I told him to buy, but he sold.
Bojo said if the US asked us to attack Syria with them after another nerve gas event - "we would find it difficult to refuse".
I like him nearly as much as I like Mark Reckless.
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?
Can someone explain to me what Jeremy Corbyn was doing in Harlow?
At today's prices, the most attractive bet IMO is a sell of of the LibDems at 26. Most of their targets are Tory held, and there's been a net swing away from the LibDems towards the Tories since GE2015. What's more, in several of the seats in which the LibDems were close behind the Tories, there was a sizeable UKIP vote; thus, seats like Eastbourne or Lewes aren't as easy for the LibDems as you'd think by looking at the small majorities.
Of course, sentiment could turn, and if the LibDems do start eating heavily into the Labour vote share that Sell could turn nasty. But, at the moment, it looks sound enough.
As others have said, spread betting is not for the faint-hearted and losses can mount up very quickly. DYOR.
I'll be down alot more than 4 grand if that is the overall result.
I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.