politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With six weeks to go today’s Commons seats spreads

Fun times. I bought the blues the other day.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fun times. I bought the blues the other day.

Me too

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selling UKIP feels like free money given the announcement this morning but DYOR.

What announcement this morning?

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selling UKIP feels like free money given the announcement this morning but DYOR.

Vote share yes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selling UKIP feels like free money given the announcement this morning but DYOR.

Why on earth would you do it on the spreads ?

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low. Conservatives getting themselves into unecessary difficulties, pensions, teacher cuts/budgets, WAR etc etc. If Lib Dems not go into coalition with either May or Corbyn then perhaps those two will make a grand alliance to stop the SNP!!!!

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Selling UKIP feels like free money given the announcement this morning but DYOR.

Why on earth would you do it on the spreads ?

I was talking purely in the sense of this thread.

I was thinking

Con - buy

Lab - sell

LD - sell

SNP - Not sure but forced to I'd sell

Scott_P said:

calum said:

SLAB & SLID will quickly embrace independence once it appears inevitable .

What will they do when Nicola inevitably loses Indyref2?

If the Unionists are so confident of winning - why not just call the SNP's bluff and approve it?

marke09 said:

Apparently the ceremonial bit of State Opening on June 19th has been reduced as Trooping the Colour is on the 17th so no time to rehearse for both (from previous thread)

It's usually on a Wednesday but The Queen doesn't want it to clash with Royal Ascot which runs from the 20th to 24th of June.

I'm betting, but not on these spreads where I'm struggling to detect the value.

I have two strats:

(1) Back the dead-certs heavily (Tory majority, May as next PM, Con most seats..)
(2) Look for value in the constituency markets

The other place I've squared out a bit of value is the LD seat bands and Scottish Con seat bands.

I'm alive to other suggestions.

calum said:

Scott_P said:

calum said:

SLAB & SLID will quickly embrace independence once it appears inevitable .

What will they do when Nicola inevitably loses Indyref2?

If the Unionists are so confident of winning - why not just call the SNP's bluff and approve it?

With the 'now is not the time' pish blown out of the water, answer came there none.

Theuniondivvie said:

With the 'now is not the time' pish blown out of the water, answer came there none.

This "now is not the time" pish?

https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/857104063485423616

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

What constrains them to decide before polling day?

Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.

You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.

In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Probably not.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

What constrains them to decide before polling day?

Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.

You can't be nominated after the 11th, so you'd be forced to have charged MPs on the ballot paper.

In the past Tory MPs charged with a crime have the whip removed which also complicates matters.

Ah that explains it then. Interesting. I'm sure May will have been well briefed in her statements regarding this if charges are forthcoming. She does have a mighty good get out clause, seeing as Cameron was PM not her. Handy.

If nothing else, this election has provided us with a variation on the Royal fresh paint fallacy...

"I’m out on the streets and the doorsteps and the meeting halls every day and that’s not what I’m finding. I’m finding the enthusiasm of people at the prospect of doing things differently to work for everyone and I’m enjoying it..."
J Corbyn

I'd be with OGH ... holding onto my cash for now. In the first week or so after the GE announcement, the spread on the Tory seats increased by approx 10 seats, whilst Labour seat spreads decreased by a similar amount. Both appear to have steadied, doubtless awaiting the next round of polls and generally current spreads accord with the bookies' under/over seat number for each of the main parties.

Mike's certainly right in calling it a high risk:high reward form of betting, bearing in mind that the two major parties are set to win around 550 seats between them and it's a brave punter who will bet on how these spoils will eventually be shared. This also means that unless you are able to open a credit account with the spread-betting firm which for obvious reasons is much more demanding than doing so with a conventional bookie, then you will have to deposit a sum equal to your maximum loss, which can prove very expensive.

Good luck if you decide to have a go, but if this is your first excursion into spread-betting, limit yourself to very small stakes per seat, remembering that your eventual profit could be multiplied 40 - 60 times or potentially a good more than this even. It also means that you'll be stuck in front of the TV screen, watching every single seat result being announced. The spread-betting firms generally stay open for most of the night, enabling you to close your position should you so decide, otherwise your profit/loss will only be decided when every last result has been declared which can take a day or two or in the case of the last GE, a month or two when one candidate unfortunately died in the run-up to polling day and the contest for the seat in question had to re-arranged.
DYOR.

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the CPS/police one year extension to investigate further/come to a charging decision ends this May.

Presumably the 7th May, right? Anniversary of the 2015 election. That means a week Friday.

Nope, it's early June, from when the candidates have to file their election expenses return which I believe is 5 weeks from election day.

Looking here,

But the police force was granted an extra 12 months to investigate the claims that Mackinlay and his agent exceeded the legal spending limit to win the seat. The one-year time limit to launch potential criminal proceedings relating to the 2015 general election was due to expire on 12 June.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/01/judge-grants-extension-to-police-investigation-into-tory-election

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nope, it's early June, from when the candidates have to file their election expenses return which I believe is 5 weeks from election day.

Right, thanks. Makes sense.

I believe a lot of the MPs filed their returns promptly, and not at the last minute which makes it possible there are different deadlines for charging for different MPs.

This could get very messy if charges are brought.

Can you imagine if say a dozen Tory MPs are charged on different days during the last two weeks of the 2017 GE election campaign.

Carnage, utter carnage in the news cycle.

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

Could be embarrassing.
I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.

Well Craig Mackinlay's file went to the CPS this week.

This could get very messy.

What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?

Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.

One by one please - name and shame the Tories everyday for as long as it takes (a bit like the Labour front bench resignations) - popcorn time!

Theuniondivvie said:

Tim fresh from some behind-the-shed spaniel sniffing.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/857565036532858881

Hurry up - I'm waiting to spend a penny!

Roger said:

Interesting to hear Angela Merkel saying brexit means brexit therefore go f**k yourselves.

In other news our foreign secretary says if the Americans go to war in Syria we would have no option but to join them. A man after Blair's heart.

Corbyn looked down and out but I don't think any of us thought about the calibre of clown he'd be up against.

Angela Merkel has an election to fight - which she's going to do well before the real negotiations start. Over-interpreting comments made for domestic consumption is not sensible.

I'd almost forgotten about Opik...

https://twitter.com/jonathanhaynes/status/857536400052416512

CarlottaVance said:

A strange reversal in the general election campaign in Scotland has seen the separatist Scottish National party clam up about independence, while the anti-independence Conservatives will not shut up about it.

https://www.ft.com/content/1d9282b8-2b1f-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

It could get comical in the next few weeks.

I just hope Alistair Carmichael doesn't feck up my spread betting this general election.

God I loathe that man.

Nigelb said:

Angela Merkel has an election to fight - which she's going to do well before the real negotiations start. Over-interpreting comments made for domestic consumption is not sensible.

Previously we were told that the fact she had an election to fight meant she would be forced to offer a wonderful trade deal so as not to upset BMW and Mercedes.

The message has been consistent since before the referendum. It's about time Brexiteers understood it.

calum said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/857548226903371776

If he is even halfway right, we shall all look bloody silly. We're probably safe though.

murali_s said:

Are we expecting any polls today? None today so far I think.

I'm not expecting any today.

I think we'll get a few on Saturday night.

calum said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I just hope Alistair Carmichael doesn't feck up my spread betting this general election.

God I loathe that man.

Gives lawyers a bad name !

I turned into a big feartie when the McZinoviev letter broke, and closed out by SNP position.

I like him nearly as much as I like Mark Reckless.

MarkSenior said:

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark?
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?

GarethoftheVale2 said:

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

logical_song said:

If 'CPS will have to decide before polling day' will they decide before the Tories choose their candidates in the affected seats?

Is a narrow window, would have to charge before May 11th.

Which is a fortnight away or 9 working days away.

Could be embarrassing.
I guess all current MPs would want re-stand.

Well Craig Mackinlay's file went to the CPS this week.

This could get very messy.

What does Alison Saunders do if there are multiple MPs to be charged ?

Do it in one go or do it one by one and dominate a lot of news cycles.

One by one please - name and shame the Tories everyday for as long as it takes (a bit like the Labour front bench resignations) - popcorn time!

That sounds like you assume they are guilty.

Personally I don't think this will make too much difference. The public were angry about expenses as it was seen as MPs stealing from the taxpayer. I can't see people getting as worked up about the Tories spending too much of their money.

If they're named before the election, lost, and then acquitted afterwards, could they force a rerun in whatever seat they were standing for?

timmo said:

MarkSenior said:

Essexman said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

theakes said:

Cons and Lib Dems far too high. Labour far too low.

Yeah right...

Not a market I will be tempted to bet on before the locals but I agree Con too high Lab too low LDs will move after locals probably to a higher level then will certainly be too high .

Wishful thinking

I am making no forecast as to the GE result but on how the spread markets will move immediately after the local elections .

Whats your view on the PP price for Sutton and Cheam Mark?
They have the tories 1/8 with the LDs 9/2.. is that wrong ?

1/3 and 2/1 would be my odds if I were a bookie

Pulpstar said:

I have bought the blues at £10 a point at 384 on this market.

I think @Marksenior implied tip of selling the Lib Dems after the locals might be a very good one.

Please bear in mind that considerable sums can be lost on this market.

Do you have to deposit £,3840 into your account?

I have an open buy of Con at 378, which for the moment at least I'm keeping open. I think the price might have a little further to go.

At today's prices, the most attractive bet IMO is a sell of of the LibDems at 26. Most of their targets are Tory held, and there's been a net swing away from the LibDems towards the Tories since GE2015. What's more, in several of the seats in which the LibDems were close behind the Tories, there was a sizeable UKIP vote; thus, seats like Eastbourne or Lewes aren't as easy for the LibDems as you'd think by looking at the small majorities.

Of course, sentiment could turn, and if the LibDems do start eating heavily into the Labour vote share that Sell could turn nasty. But, at the moment, it looks sound enough.

As others have said, spread betting is not for the faint-hearted and losses can mount up very quickly. DYOR.

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I have bought the blues at £10 a point at 384 on this market.

I think @Marksenior implied tip of selling the Lib Dems after the locals might be a very good one.

Please bear in mind that considerable sums can be lost on this market.

Do you have to deposit £,3840 into your account?

If you're new i think they will force you to have a stop loss at a certain number of seats either way? So limiting losses and gains... Might be wrong though. My one attempt at spread betting was a disaster mitigated only by the fact that i had​ a welcome bonus.

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I have bought the blues at £10 a point at 384 on this market.

I think @Marksenior implied tip of selling the Lib Dems after the locals might be a very good one.

Please bear in mind that considerable sums can be lost on this market.

Do you have to deposit £,3840 into your account?

Nope.

I'll be down alot more than 4 grand if that is the overall result.

Hmm... on those spreads I would be a seller of Lib Dem, seller of Labour and seller of UKIP. I would be very reluctant at the moment to go either way on the SNP. This surely means I should be a buyer of Tories but it seems awfully high already...

I must remember someone has to win every seat no matter how awful they are.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Right, is there any feasible way for Labour to ditch Corbyn and coronate Tom Watson or Yvette Cooper as leader 4 weeks before polling day?

Why don't all the Labour MPs do what they do in soap operas and pretend that it was only a bad dream?

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

(((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 22m22 minutes ago

Can someone explain to me what Jeremy Corbyn was doing in Harlow?

Because with 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation, overturning a 20% Tory lead in the constituency is on the cards?

Especially when it's a overtly working class Tory like Halfon.