politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron b
Comments
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Are you sure?Alistair said:
But she wants a vote in 2019.CarlottaVance said:The Sun, taking its usual measured approach:
Disaster for Nicola Sturgeon as just one in four Scots support fresh independence vote next year
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3407224/blow-for-nicola-sturgeon-as-just-one-in-four-scots-support-fresh-independence-vote-next-year/0 -
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?0
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I believe she wants it between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019, the range of dates the poll asked about.Alistair said:
But she wants a vote in 2019.CarlottaVance said:The Sun, taking its usual measured approach:
Disaster for Nicola Sturgeon as just one in four Scots support fresh independence vote next year
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3407224/blow-for-nicola-sturgeon-as-just-one-in-four-scots-support-fresh-independence-vote-next-year/0 -
A very depressing thread ...
https://twitter.com/matteocarandini/status/8561831715614760960 -
I stand corrected. Labour announcing it will make it even more unpopular thenFrancisUrquhart said:
The sky data poll was asked pre the labour announcement and without any mention of which party.dyedwoolie said:
Anything they announce will get the same treatment, the electorate has decided if it's red it doesn't want it. The danger for Labour is this getting as bad as Scotland 2015, and they find themselves getting 10-30% just about everywhere and almost nothing to show for it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Maybe he saw the results of the sky data poll just before he went on? And found the key offer he was about to announce has a majority against it.Big_G_NorthWales said:Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.
Very subdued applause as well
The death throws of labour in full sight
Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.0 -
Blimey. Are you voting for CorbynPong said:
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.RobD said:
An eye-watering sum.prh47bridge said:
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.Gallowgate said:
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?llef said:ons numbers published today
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
? 0 -
Didn't the LDs woeful attempt in 2005 tell them anything?Slackbladder said:Tom Newton DunnVERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago
Disastrous own goal for @Open_Britain; prominent pro-EU Tories Morgan, Grieve, Soubry and Carmichael walk out over Brexit MPs target list.0 -
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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So because the next generation is stuffed you want to abolish any inheritance the next generation may get?Pong said:
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.RobD said:
An eye-watering sum.prh47bridge said:
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.Gallowgate said:
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?llef said:ons numbers published today
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
A tax on pensions would be generationally fairer.0 -
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.Scott_P said:@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
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For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.dyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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Philip_Thompson said:
So because the next generation is stuffed you want to abolish any inheritance the next generation may get?Pong said:
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.RobD said:
An eye-watering sum.prh47bridge said:
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.Gallowgate said:
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?llef said:ons numbers published today
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
A tax on pensions would be generationally fairer.
Pensions are already taxable. Do you mean an additional tax on them?
That's quite a vote-winner. Have you suggested it to Jeremy?
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All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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The kind of bombs they are worried about — a few hundred grams of explosives detonated manually — would do little damage on a train, they would likely only kill the bomber and maybe a couple of people in the immediate vicinity. On an aircraft the bomber is intending to detonate the bomb at a weak point to breach the fuselage, and if they get their way bring down the aircraft. That's why the authorities are worried about them on aircraft but not other forms of transport.Peter_the_Punter said:Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.
In the hold of an an airliner the bomb can't be detonated manually, and can't be placed at a chosen weak point. Which should limit the risk considerably.
If these bombs are being made by the AQAP bomb maker* who made the printer cartridge bombs, which seems to be the case, they are likely to pass through most security undetected, the only way of stopping them is a blanket ban on electronics over a certain size in the cabin.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_al-Asiri0 -
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picturekle4 said:
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed.Roger said:
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.foxinsoxuk said:
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.Razedabode said:I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.0 -
The current 85 page monstrosity is clearly unfit for purpose - it may have changed, but there were many fewer pages to fill in when applying for citizenship - which logically should be tougher.....SouthamObserver said:A very depressing thread ...
//twitter.com/matteocarandini/status/8561831715614760960 -
It's was tongue in cheek of course. Labour won't go under 120 IMO, but they MUST split after the GE, they've got to eradicate the hard left, the soft left need to form a new centre party and then drift gently left once embedded should the winds dictate.Omnium said:
For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.dyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cardsmurali_s said:
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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I don't understand what you mean.Roger said:
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picturekle4 said:
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed.Roger said:
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.foxinsoxuk said:
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.Razedabode said:I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.0 -
1997 but Labour fight without Scotland and most of Wales. That's like Tories in 97 going in without the home countiesBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cardsmurali_s said:
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....kle4 said:
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.Peter_the_Punter said:
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.kle4 said:
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.logical_song said:
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.Philip_Thompson said:
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.isam said:
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016Slackbladder said:It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.0 -
Thank you, GLW, very interesting.glw said:
The kind of bombs they are worried about — a few hundred grams of explosives detonated manually — would do little damage on a train, they would likely only kill the bomber and maybe a couple of people in the immediate vicinity. On an aircraft the bomber is intending to detonate the bomb at a weak point to breach the fuselage, and if they get their way bring down the aircraft. That's why the authorities are worried about them on aircraft but not other forms of transport.Peter_the_Punter said:Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.
In the hold of an an airliner the bomb can't be detonated manually, and can't be placed at a chosen weak point. Which should limit the risk considerably.
If these bombs are being made by the AQAP bomb maker* who made the printer cartridge bombs, which seems to be the case, they are likely to pass through most security undetected, the only way of stopping them is a blanket ban on electronics over a certain size in the cabin.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_al-Asiri
I'm still not sure that justifies the reaction, or indeed the absurd security palaver at airports, but it's helpful info for those of us that like to think about these things.0 -
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bedRobD said:
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.CommanderShepard said:
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)dyedwoolie said:
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmickle4 said:
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.CommanderShepard said:
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in ScotlandDavidL said:
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.RobD said:
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?SimonStClare said:‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p10 -
Great to see you posting again Peter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.RobD said:
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.Peter_the_Punter said:
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.RobD said:
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!geoffw said:
Macron is bad news for Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.geoffw said:Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?0 -
The mail's bleating about taxes days after 'crash the saboteurs' shows that if the tories do get a big majority, they will still be pilloried by the press if the press don't like a policy.murali_s said:
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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I think May saw herself as neither.david_herdson said:
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....kle4 said:
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.Peter_the_Punter said:
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.kle4 said:
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.logical_song said:
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.Philip_Thompson said:
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.isam said:
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016Slackbladder said:It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.0 -
Good point and even now I find it strange to see how labour are dead in Scotland and looking as if the same will apply in Wales on June 9thdyedwoolie said:
1997 but Labour fight without Scotland and most of Wales. That's like Tories in 97 going in without the home countiesBig_G_NorthWales said:
I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cardsmurali_s said:
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it todaydyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
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Mr. Observer, indeed, there seem to have been a number of very poor decisions on permanent leave to remain.0
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Yeah - look at the way it took out that Maidenhead Tory. What ever happened to her?RobD said:
Didn't the LDs woeful attempt in 2005 tell them anything?Slackbladder said:Tom Newton DunnVERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago
Disastrous own goal for @Open_Britain; prominent pro-EU Tories Morgan, Grieve, Soubry and Carmichael walk out over Brexit MPs target list.0 -
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-31/itv-news-poll-of-scottish-seats-show-19-point-swing-from-labour-to-the-snp/
An ITV News/ComRes poll of all Labour's 40 Scotland seats shows:
19 pts Swing from Labour to the SNP
Translated into projected votes this means:
28 Seats Labour would lose to SNP
Leaving Labour with:
12 MPs in Scotland
Result:
23.9% swing
Ranging from 10.9% Edi South to 39.3% Glasgow North East.
Now the Tory swing is smaller but the swing variance may well be up there......
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So at 37% that's higher support than all but 1 (38%) pre-SindyRef TNS poll.Scott_P said:0 -
This will go nowhere.Slackbladder said:Tom Newton DunnVERIFIED ACCOUNT @tnewtondunn 1 min1 minute ago
Disastrous own goal for @Open_Britain; prominent pro-EU Tories Morgan, Grieve, Soubry and Carmichael walk out over Brexit MPs target list.0 -
Indeed! Let's see how these PB Tories face up to some hostile fast bowling!kle4 said:
That's a good thing for your side, murali - it means when things get tough, they won't know how to respond.murali_s said:
Jeez, the PB Tories are flat track bullies!RobD said:
PB Tories 4 Corbyn would rejoice at such news!kle4 said:
Expect a lot of overreaction, one way or another, if the locals are not as bad for Lab/not as good for Con as the national polls look right now.murali_s said:
Thanks TSE. So Labour only only 6 % behind? Wow!TheScreamingEagles said:
National equivalent share of the vote.murali_s said:
What does NEV mean? Is it something like if L 40, C 20, LD 20 in London then L 30, C 55, LD 15 Nationally?TheScreamingEagles said:REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):
CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)
Basically what would the VI look like if there was a general election based on the result of the locals.0 -
Recent polls average at about
62%-38% Macron-Le Pen
57%-43% Fillon-Le Pen
This suggests there are 5% who back Macron now but who would vote for Le Pen against Fillon. So a significant proportion of intending Macron voters DON'T see Le Pen as dirty, dangerous, and to be voted against at all costs. They're only plumping for Macron because he doesn't appear to be a man of the system, a smug conservative like Fillon. While everyone is now wise to the fact that some Mélenchon supporters will vote for Le Pen, I'm not sure that people are taking the flakiness of Macron's support in the direction of Le Pen into account.
The more Macron pushes the line that Le Pen is evil, the more he may increase the proportion of his supporters who are soft in their support and who could imagine switching to Le Pen.
Macron would love R2 to be tomorrow, but his problem is that it won't be held for nearly a fortnight. If I were advising him, I'd say don't run a polarising campaign. Don't focus on saving the Republic (from Le Pen). She's focusing on saving France (from the Arab hordes), and compared to the Republic, France may be a stronger brand. We're talking about De Gaulle's Republic here, the Republic that has seen a right bunch of crooks both as president and in other high office.
What the polls say now won't win this for Macron. He's got to run a campaign. The spotlight will shine far more brightly on him than it did before R1. How's he going to play it? What if there's violence at the weekend and on Mayday Monday? Should he participate in the Wednesday debate (with two days of campaigning left), where you can be sure that Le Pen will polarise to the hilt? Or should he pooh-pooh it and play the "you're so far beneath me in all respects, and if you want a debate you can have it with yourself" card?
His poll lead seems to be there for the crumbling.0 -
I'm sure I recall laughing at that poll. Oh, they'll lose a lot, but go down to 12? Ha.Pulpstar said:http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-31/itv-news-poll-of-scottish-seats-show-19-point-swing-from-labour-to-the-snp/
An ITV News/ComRes poll of all Labour's 40 Scotland seats shows:
19 pts Swing from Labour to the SNP
Translated into projected votes this means:
28 Seats Labour would lose to SNP
Leaving Labour with:
12 MPs in Scotland
Result:
23.9% swing
Ranging from 10.9% Edi South to 39.3% Glasgow North East.
Now the Tory swing is smaller but the swing variance may well be up there......
I never learn.0 -
Thank you, Roger. I'm amazed to discover how much more popular one becomes after disappearing for a while.Roger said:
Great to see you posting again Peter.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.RobD said:
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.Peter_the_Punter said:
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.RobD said:
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!geoffw said:
Macron is bad news for Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.geoffw said:Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?0 -
Why not?Pulpstar said:
"Ed Miliband moment"AlastairMeeks said:Jaw-dropping Conservative gains? How about Doncaster North?
What on earth do the people of Doncaster North have in common with Ed Miliband, and vice-versa?0 -
No. And that's a massive problem for labour.Pulpstar said:
Blimey. Are you voting for CorbynPong said:
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.RobD said:
An eye-watering sum.prh47bridge said:
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.Gallowgate said:
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?llef said:ons numbers published today
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off. ?
I really should be voting for them.0 -
Matteo Carandini could get his blue sky job with no deliverables paid for by Italian tax payers. No problem.0
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The way things are going it will be like Douglas Jardines 133 against a West Indies Body line attackmurali_s said:
Indeed! Let's see how these PB Tories face up to some hostile fast bowling!kle4 said:
That's a good thing for your side, murali - it means when things get tough, they won't know how to respond.murali_s said:
Jeez, the PB Tories are flat track bullies!RobD said:
PB Tories 4 Corbyn would rejoice at such news!kle4 said:
Expect a lot of overreaction, one way or another, if the locals are not as bad for Lab/not as good for Con as the national polls look right now.murali_s said:
Thanks TSE. So Labour only only 6 % behind? Wow!TheScreamingEagles said:
National equivalent share of the vote.murali_s said:
What does NEV mean? Is it something like if L 40, C 20, LD 20 in London then L 30, C 55, LD 15 Nationally?TheScreamingEagles said:REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):
CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)
Basically what would the VI look like if there was a general election based on the result of the locals.0 -
-
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.peter_from_putney said:
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.Scott_P said:@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Good morning, everybody.0 -
And miss seeing all the labour big wigs fall publicly on TVmarke09 said:
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bedRobD said:
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.CommanderShepard said:
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)dyedwoolie said:
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmickle4 said:
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.CommanderShepard said:
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in ScotlandDavidL said:
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.RobD said:
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?SimonStClare said:‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p10 -
The longer it takes for us to guarantee the rights of EU citizens the more chance there is we will lose the high income, in-demand, entrepreneurial people we need here and say we want to keep. People with choices will exercise them and we'll be the poorer for it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, indeed, there seem to have been a number of very poor decisions on permanent leave to remain.
0 -
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.Casino_Royale said:
I think May saw herself as neither.david_herdson said:
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....kle4 said:
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.Peter_the_Punter said:
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.kle4 said:
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.logical_song said:
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.Philip_Thompson said:
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.isam said:
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016Slackbladder said:It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.0 -
Yep, I took it as such. For them to get a really low total the mechanism would almost certainly primarily be self-inflicted damage. A pre-election split, MPs campaigning on a 'won't serve in Corbyn cabinet' ticket etc. Now that's very unlikely indeed, but isn't to be totally ruled out.dyedwoolie said:
It's was tongue in cheek of course. Labour won't go under 120 IMO, but they MUST split after the GE, they've got to eradicate the hard left, the soft left need to form a new centre party and then drift gently left once embedded should the winds dictate.Omnium said:
For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.dyedwoolie said:SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
Burnham losing in Manchester would be an interesting possible catalyst.
My main care though is that whatever the result Corbyn isn't PM, and that the out-and-out idiots such as McDonnell, Abbott, etc are kept well away from any sharp instruments of government.0 -
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?0 -
I hope you are all stocked up on popcorn!Big_G_NorthWales said:
And miss seeing all the labour big wigs fall publically on TVmarke09 said:
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bedRobD said:
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.CommanderShepard said:
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)dyedwoolie said:
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmickle4 said:
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.CommanderShepard said:
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in ScotlandDavidL said:
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.RobD said:
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?SimonStClare said:‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p10 -
Unspoofable. I suppose it all hinges on which way the crucial endorsement of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan goes?Cyan said:His poll lead seems to be there for the crumbling.
0 -
Pleb! ;-)kle4 said:
I don't understand what you mean.Roger said:
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picturekle4 said:
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed.Roger said:
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.foxinsoxuk said:
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.Razedabode said:I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.0 -
Mile wide.... ah, you know the rest.Scott_P said:
0 -
Basically there is one or more competent bomb makers working for AQAP and affiliated groups.Peter_the_Punter said:Thank you, GLW, very interesting.
I'm still not sure that justifies the reaction, or indeed the absurd security palaver at airports, but it's helpful info for those of us that like to think about these things.
The cargo plane bombs suggest that they are extreme hard to detect.Later forensic examination indicated that the bomb was inadvertently disarmed by Scotland Yard explosive officers, who took the printer cartridge out of the printer during their examination that morning, around three hours before the bomb was due to explode at 10:30 AM (5:30 AM Eastern time) .[19][20][28] The officers were unaware when they took the device apart that it was a bomb.[21]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_planes_bomb_plot
British officials continued to believe that there were not any explosives in the package,[19] but U.S. authorities insisted that the package be inspected again. British authorities then consulted with officials in Dubai, who had discovered a similar bomb in a computer printer cartridge, and MI6 spoke with the Saudi tipster. Scotland Yard explosives officers flew the printer and the cartridge in a police helicopter to the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Fort Halstead near London, and discovered the bomb at around 2 PM.[19][21][24][27]0 -
Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.0
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Betfair seems to have regretted opening them up so quicklypeter_from_putney said:STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?0 -
She also wanted to hedge her bets and knew that if Leave won then Cameron would resign and she could put her pearls on, wow the membership, and get her arse in to Number Ten. As soon as Leave did win, I bet against Mophead and in favour of May.david_herdson said:I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.
0 -
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.0 -
So he won't sell it like that. It'd be "we're predicting a Con majority of 140 which could include some truly historic losses for Labour - but we're still waiting on the details there".marke09 said:
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bedRobD said:
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.CommanderShepard said:
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)dyedwoolie said:
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmickle4 said:
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.CommanderShepard said:
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in ScotlandDavidL said:
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.RobD said:
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?SimonStClare said:‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p10 -
Which I suspect makes her very similar to many Remain voters - not great enthusiasts, but on balance better off in. And also willing to accept the result.david_herdson said:
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.Casino_Royale said:
I think May saw herself as neither.david_herdson said:
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....kle4 said:
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.Peter_the_Punter said:
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.kle4 said:
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.logical_song said:
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.Philip_Thompson said:
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.isam said:
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016Slackbladder said:It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.0 -
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".peter_from_putney said:STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?0 -
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.0 -
Bugger. Seems LibDem in Bath has pulled the plug so to speak. I had a fiver on that one.0
-
It's a very bad point. There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of the EU27 not having a 100% common position on this.Roger said:
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.foxinsoxuk said:
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.Razedabode said:I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.0 -
Just a sneaky way of getting that progressive alliance inAnneJGP said:
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.peter_from_putney said:
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.Scott_P said:@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Good morning, everybody.
0 -
This is no bubblewilliamglenn said:0 -
Have we had anymore info on their candidate stepped down ?rottenborough said:Bugger. Seems LibDem in Bath has pulled the plug so to speak. I had a fiver on that one.
0 -
Reminds me of this line from one of my fav filmsAlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
"What was I supposed to do? Call him for cheating better than me in front of the others?!"
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7612c4ce-1077-479f-a7bf-617dbc6fc6d10 -
I can only assume Cyan has a massive red on Macron.williamglenn said:
Unspoofable. I suppose it all hinges on which way the crucial endorsement of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan goes?Cyan said:His poll lead seems to be there for the crumbling.
0 -
He's probably aware that there are practically no working class parents who would rather spend their money on cigarettes even if that means letting their children go hungry.FrancisUrquhart said:Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.
If you want neglect, look at how so many bourgeois parents send their brats to boarding school.0 -
+1AlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
That is the truth sadly. You just need to go out and speak to people. Sad, sad times...0 -
family and business reasons:FrancisUrquhart said:
Have we had anymore info on their candidate stepped down ?rottenborough said:Bugger. Seems LibDem in Bath has pulled the plug so to speak. I had a fiver on that one.
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/shock-withdrawal-of-bath-liberal-democrat-election-candidate-jay-risbridger/story-30291858-detail/story.html0 -
Some rumour he had been in the GreensFrancisUrquhart said:
Have we had anymore info on their candidate stepped down ?rottenborough said:Bugger. Seems LibDem in Bath has pulled the plug so to speak. I had a fiver on that one.
0 -
Were you up for Ed? Take 2....Casino_Royale said:
Why not?Pulpstar said:
"Ed Miliband moment"AlastairMeeks said:Jaw-dropping Conservative gains? How about Doncaster North?
What on earth do the people of Doncaster North have in common with Ed Miliband, and vice-versa?0 -
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by decisions taken by politicians of all colours.AlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.0 -
I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done0 -
Cyan
I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.
If you come across an analysis, I'd be very grateful if you'd let me know. Use my email if you like: arklebar@gmail.com
Thank you.0 -
It's not true. People felt they hadn't been listened to for decades, for generations, with no palatable non-neo-Nazi political party telling it how it is about immigration. Most of the "metropolitan elite" were pro-EU. Where does Chianti come from?murali_s said:
+1AlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
That is the truth sadly. You just need to go out and speak to people. Sad, sad times...
It's easy to think the knuckle-dragging plebs are always and only sheep, but the working class people who voted Leave didn't do it because David Owen and John Cleese told them to.0 -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/138daTmCr3m6YdxePtjjQIIIzrMCxy2tZqcOll8eOQEY/edit?usp=sharing <- That's how I reckon Wales might play out.kle4 said:
I'm sure I recall laughing at that poll. Oh, they'll lose a lot, but go down to 12? Ha.Pulpstar said:http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-31/itv-news-poll-of-scottish-seats-show-19-point-swing-from-labour-to-the-snp/
An ITV News/ComRes poll of all Labour's 40 Scotland seats shows:
19 pts Swing from Labour to the SNP
Translated into projected votes this means:
28 Seats Labour would lose to SNP
Leaving Labour with:
12 MPs in Scotland
Result:
23.9% swing
Ranging from 10.9% Edi South to 39.3% Glasgow North East.
Now the Tory swing is smaller but the swing variance may well be up there......
I never learn.
Though my method only results in a swing variance of 7 to 15%, which might be low.
Owen Smith might not be safe after all.0 -
A significant change from previous assessments of its sizewilliamglenn said:
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All those lies from Leave saw UKIP go from 3-12% a year earlier, and win the euros in 2014!FrancisUrquhart said:
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by politicians of all colours.AlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Where were the signs?
"It's peak kipper, & IPSOS MORI says no one is interested in the EU" 0 -
Remember folks, Tories still don't have any councillors in Manchester city, sheffield, Liverpool or Newcastle....just how will they gain a majority.....0
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6.6 on BF for 150-174RochdalePioneers said:I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done0 -
Radio 4 starts coverage with music marked sehr feierlich und sehr langsam on the score.RobD said:
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.CommanderShepard said:
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)dyedwoolie said:
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmickle4 said:
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.CommanderShepard said:
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in ScotlandDavidL said:
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.RobD said:
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?SimonStClare said:‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p10 -
Seems a skinny price for a 12 seat Tory range.rottenborough said:
6.6 on BF for 150-174RochdalePioneers said:I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done0 -
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.RochdalePioneers said:I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.0 -
We agree! Although I'd say it was a lot longer than 15 years. Maybe 35-40.FrancisUrquhart said:
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by decisions taken by politicians of all colours.AlastairMeeks said:
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.Casino_Royale said:
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.david_herdson said:
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.Roger said:
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?david_herdson said:
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.Roger said:It's comforting to know that the US would never be accepted as a member of the EU though they could always team up with Saudi Arabia or May's Britain
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.0 -
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.murali_s said:
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.RochdalePioneers said:I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done
0 -
It's the same policy as the Tories. Tariff free access to a single market we aren't a member of. We won't get it because the EU can't offer it. It's a policy for hard Brexit. It'll see us destroyed from remainers and destroyed by leavers.murali_s said:
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.RochdalePioneers said:I've heard Starmer on Today. I've read his speech
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
It's 1997 in reverse. Tories will win seats they haven't held for a generation0 -
How would he know?AnneJGP said:
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.peter_from_putney said:
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.Scott_P said:@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Good morning, everybody.0 -
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night0
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No black swan terrorist event will swing this election in favour of Le Pen. This assumption is a misunderstanding of her support increase. Her anti-globalization campaign is her strong point. It actually is the economy, stupid. the people that would be swayed to vote for her because of a terror attack will already have been voting for her. People don't forget things like the Bataclan or Nice, those who would switch to her because of that already have done so (and it is a small number) - a terrorist attack between now and voting day won't shift anything, just like the one on the Champs didn't either.
If Macron were to lose (I don't think he will, but if he did), it would be because of their respective economic programs - that is what will sway unsure voters between these two rounds.
Polling has largely proved accurate so far in France which should reassure for Macron. Which means we would likely see a change in polling direction for the two before any upset, rather than an on the night shocker.0 -
I agree. I wouldn't like to do a tissue on this election. Labour seats for example - could be anything from 200 down to....well, zero,frankly.AlastairMeeks said:
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".peter_from_putney said:STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
If Shadsy is being cautious, he's being smart.0 -
That sounds about right. What you have to remember is that, for the Left, Le Pen is cultural anathema. It doesn't matter that her policies and Mélenchon's are actually quite similar in many ways, it's a tribal/identity thing, and they view Le Pen as fascist and racist, without noticing the similarity in the mirror.Peter_the_Punter said:...
I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.....
BTW Great to see you back and kicking!0 -
I did this last night, the prices might have changed but you can back @ 5-6 378.5 seats overs and back 398.5 seats @ 5-6 unders
So
+398.5 Lose 1 Gain 5/6 (Net loss 1/6 of stake)
-378.5 Lose 5/6 Gain 1 (Net loss 1/6 of stake)
379 - 398 seats Gain 10/6 (Net Gain 1/6 of stake)
Which gives a majority spread of 108 to 146 at odds of 10-1.
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