politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on
Comments
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Ah! Wasn't surebobajobPB said:
That was my (weak) attempt at a gag - they would be a consequence of it rather than a cause.isam said:
Remove 'leftard' and that's probably true!bobajobPB said:
The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.FrancisUrquhart said:Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/
Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)0 -
Labour run Wales, couldn't they start to reeducate them? Seriously though, you are screwed when you are blaming the electorate for your problemsAndyJS said:Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
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Its weird, he goes from ranting like a nutter on speakers corner about the secret world order controlling everything to a robotic speech to trade unionists.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was expecting a bit more tubthumping, but it was robotic. His reading of the Alan Roden issued lines on Scotland were woeful too.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.
Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.
When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?0 -
Here is the specific page: http://www.positivedeviance.org/projects/vulnerable_groups.html?id=124MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
I'm guessing these aren't Welsh Steelworkers who voted out in the referendum, whose grandad, grandma and great grandad voted Labour all their lives - but now..AndyJS said:Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
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Maybe Paddy could give up his Lords seat and go back to the Commons! Or does accepting a life peerage mean you can no longer sit in the Commons even if you were to give up the tight to sit in the Lords, like Ashcroft?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?0 -
It is a clear sign of too much immigration when you have to change the culture of the people who have come.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
another_richard said:
Re Vauxhall constituency
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.</blockquote
I think Labour are great value at 4/7 with Sky. Shame they are only laying it for buttons/0 -
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
David "Dodgy Expenses" Laws fancy another go? What about Steve Webb or Beaker the Park Ranger?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?0 -
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.Floater said:
/foxinsoxuk said:
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.MaxPB said:
There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.foxinsoxuk said:
Please read current national policy:MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. .MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
What is wrong with this as an approach?
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
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Remember when Labour had politicians with gravitas? Even Gordon Brown can roll out a barnstorming speech when required (albeit rather over done in the last few years, as SLab got panicky).FrancisUrquhart said:
Its weird, he goes from ranting like a nutter on speakers corner about the secret world order controlling everything to a robotic speech to trade unionists.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
I was expecting a bit more tubthumping, but it was robotic. His reading of the Alan Roden issued lines on Scotland were woeful too.FrancisUrquhart said:
Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.
Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.
When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?0 -
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
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Says the party leader who avoided putting her own party name on her leaflets at the last election.CarlottaVance said:
The word du jour is The SNP's record in government 'Tories'kjohnw said:
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/8565826266935664640 -
English labour supporters no doubt who have no idea how labour have failed Wales and by allowing Corbyn free reign have administered their own coup de graceAndyJS said:Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
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Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
Life in prison would be a good start.MaxPB said:
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
It's hard to see the Conservatives not polling 25-30% here. That leaves the Lib Dems having to win over half the people who voted Labour in 2015. I don't see it happening, as those voters will mostly be people on low incomes living in social housing, many of them black voters, who are loyal to Labour.another_richard said:Re Vauxhall constituency
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
Hornsey & Wood Green is a far better target for Lib Dems, despite the MP being a Remainer.0 -
Does he mean a central bank? Is he now supporting the union to death in the same way he supported Remain to death (not to mention the Labour party).ToryJim said:0 -
String up the abusers and traffickers as well then. No mercy and no compromise.foxinsoxuk said:
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.0 -
Are you counting the Scots who are notoriously ginger?tlg86 said:
I think we have too much of the wrong kind of fairness.kle4 said:I occasionally copy posts which I feel make a particularly good point or are well expressed in some fashion, and since we are gearing up for an election, I stumbled across this one on vapidity of political pledges, which seems like it will be very relevant across the next weeks
You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.
But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?
I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.0 -
Oh, really? I thought only Conservative culprits had been reported to the police.HaroldO said:
Agreed, and I doubt they will all be Tory either.kle4 said:
We'll know soon, but I doubt it will be 0.CarlottaVance said:
Sorry, I missed your answer to 'How many Tory MPs have been charged'?OUT said:
"There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".CarlottaVance said:
How many Tory MPs have been charged?OUT said:
Law was cleared, the other two are gone.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?calum said:
Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.CarlottaVance said:Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Chortle.....
Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
And as for Laws:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd0 -
The USA just defunded the UN agency that combats FGM through schemes like that a few weeks ago.MTimT said:
Here is the specific page: http://www.positivedeviance.org/projects/vulnerable_groups.html?id=124MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
Christ knows what he means or intends.williamglenn said:
Does he mean a central bank? Is he now supporting the union to death in the same way he supported Remain to death (not to mention the Labour party).ToryJim said:0 -
Aren't they always the problem?ToryJim said:
Labour run Wales, couldn't they start to reeducate them? Seriously though, you are screwed when you are blaming the electorate for your problemsAndyJS said:Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
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Is this an actual Labour policy, or a Corbyn policy, like on Trident?0
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But the beauty of an effective screening program is, there's no one to string up because the practice is killed stone dead.foxinsoxuk said:
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.0 -
Twitter
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
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If only the Native Indians had realised that when the first Settlers from Europe arrived.isam said:
It is a clear sign of too much immigration when you have to change the culture of the people who have come.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
Fortunately DFID spends some of our money on the issue, as part of its work on female emancipation across the MENA region:Alistair said:
The USA just defunded the UN agency that combats FGM through schemes like that a few weeks ago.MTimT said:
Here is the specific page: http://www.positivedeviance.org/projects/vulnerable_groups.html?id=124MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org
https://devtracker.dfid.gov.uk/projects/GB-1-203024/
Money well spent.0 -
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this.isam said:
Bet 365 398.5peter_from_putney said:FPT
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
0 -
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.0 -
With reference to the thread header, will we see this level of animosity across the campaign against several parties? After all if Leavers are targeted like this then Remainers in other seats will experience similar. It will not make for a very edifying election night, though it will be historically memorable. I think Corbyn/Labour MPs defeated in this election might suffer similar abuse to that of David Mellor in 1997.
A clip of Mellor vs Goldsmith is posted below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PrcpbuhIm00 -
I hear incest is a problem in some areas, would anybody support dna testing of children to clamp down on it?0
-
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?fitalass said:Twitter
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.0 -
Yes indeed, horrificPeter_the_Punter said:
If only the Native Indians had realised that when the first Settlers from Europe arrived.isam said:
It is a clear sign of too much immigration when you have to change the culture of the people who have come.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
particularly those immigrants who mutilate their female children and treat their women as vassalsMaxPB said:
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.MTimT said:
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.0 -
The groups loyal to Labour seem ever fewer.Sean_F said:
It's hard to see the Conservatives not polling 25-30% here. That leaves the Lib Dems having to win over half the people who voted Labour in 2015. I don't see it happening, as those voters will mostly be people on low incomes living in social housing, many of them black voters, who are loyal to Labour.another_richard said:Re Vauxhall constituency
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
Hornsey & Wood Green is a far better target for Lib Dems, despite the MP being a Remainer.0 -
SkyBet have 5/6 Con 394+ seats but 13/8 400+ seats.
That seems to be a narrow gap.
0 -
Interesting would be independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, which would really mean the writing is on the wall.kle4 said:
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?fitalass said:Twitter
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.0 -
I accept all that you say.foxinsoxuk said:
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.Floater said:
/foxinsoxuk said:
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.MaxPB said:
There hsnipese perpetrators to get away with it.foxinsoxuk said:
Please read current national policy:MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. .MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
What is wrong with this as an approach?
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
What I want is the girls not to suffer this fate - I am not entirely clear if you are saying this approach is working though?0 -
Indeed. The 'wrong' types of Christianity, for a start.Philip_Thompson said:
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.MTimT said:
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.0 -
Polling suggests Labours entrenched support in its heartland is no longer there.peter_from_putney said:
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this.isam said:
Bet 365 398.5peter_from_putney said:FPT
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.0 -
The Chinese wiped out foot-binding in just a few years because they were determined to stop it.MTimT said:
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.0 -
More Remainers have already surrendered (retired/stood down) than they are targetting.williamglenn said:The same story in the Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/remain-campaigners-urge-voters-to-unseat-brexit-backing-mps
"Remain campaigners urge voters to unseat Brexit-backing MPs"0 -
If the SNP vote is down a bit as some of the polling is indicating then it is possible that the Unionists will be further ahead and that would indeed be "interesting". But it is going to have to wait until the morning for me one way or another.kle4 said:
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?fitalass said:Twitter
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.0 -
Ooooh - more money from magic money tree.ToryJim said:0 -
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)stodge said:
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?0 -
They realised it rather too late, from their point of view.Peter_the_Punter said:
If only the Native Indians had realised that when the first Settlers from Europe arrived.isam said:
It is a clear sign of too much immigration when you have to change the culture of the people who have come.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
Does the candidate have to be alive?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?0 -
Still digesting that Welsh poll this evening, has it caused shockwaves in Welsh Labour or were there indications of a swing to the Tories on the doorsteps already? Attended our Scots Conservative association meeting tonight where we selected Andrew Bowie as our candidate in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Still waiting to hear who will stand against Alex Salmond in Gordon, that association was just waiting to select their candidate when we left.0
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What is your budgetary plan to finance this massive targetting of police and childcare resources? It is encouraging to hear PB rightwingers advocating investment in public services for women and ethnic minorities.Ishmael_Z said:
But the beauty of an effective screening program is, there's no one to string up because the practice is killed stone dead.foxinsoxuk said:
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.0 -
Lol
It is a surefire loser but I couldn't resist:
Labour to fail to win a single seat 501.00 loool £1 stake0 -
English born population in Wales, 2001 census: 20.32%AndyJS said:Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
Number of Welsh Tory MPs: zero
English born population in Wales, 2011 census: 20.77%
Number of Welsh Tory MPs: seven
ONS mid-year population estimates - net within UK migration to Wales
2012: 4,500
2013: -700
2014: 200
2015: 800
Number of Welsh Tory MPs in 2015: eleven
Methinks there may be a flaw in the "Evil St George Flag Waving Colonial Settlers" hypothesis...0 -
-
The only indyref poll we have had this week had Yes on 43% ie the exact same score as the SNP also polled at the weekend so I don't think that follows. 'Interesting' also means dull, if Yes was ahead a journalist would have said 'shocking' or something similar, not that it matters as if the SNP loses MPs there is zero chance of May granting any official indyref2 in the next Parliamentwilliamglenn said:
Interesting would be independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, which would really mean the writing is on the wall.kle4 said:
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?fitalass said:Twitter
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.0 -
castration might be more poetickyf_100 said:
Life in prison would be a good start.MaxPB said:
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.MTimT said:
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org0 -
No, they can't nominate Charles Kennedy. That's just wrong. Shame on you.rcs1000 said:
Does the candidate have to be alive?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?0 -
Fill your boots on the latter.another_richard said:SkyBet have 5/6 Con 394+ seats but 13/8 400+ seats.
That seems to be a narrow gap.0 -
rcs1000 said:
Does the candidate have to be alive?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
0 -
I don't particularly dislike the Lib Dems actually. I was making a genuine point. In a completely flippant way, but a genuine point nonetheless.ReggieCide said:
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)stodge said:
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
I'd recognise a fair few of them. Not sure how many non-geeks would though.0 -
No one is advocating permitting the practice, what is being discussed are the merits of a punitive vs a more holistic approach in eradicating it.Floater said:
I accept all that you say.foxinsoxuk said:
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we doFloater said:
/foxinsoxuk said:
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.MaxPB said:
There hsnipese perpetrators to get away with it.foxinsoxuk said:
Please read current national policy:MaxPB said:
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?ToryJim said:
This proposal fails the smell test. .MaxPB said:
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?ToryJim said:
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.Sean_F said:
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?ToryJim said:
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.Ishmael_Z said:
Why?ToryJim said:
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.AndyJS said:Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?
http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
What I want is the girls not to suffer this fate - I am not entirely clear if you are saying this approach is working though?
Frankly evidence is thin on the ground for any approach.0 -
-
Sturgeon is going through some kind of breakdown, Davidson has established a crushing psychological dominance over the FM.CarlottaVance said:
The word du jour is The SNP's record in government 'Tories'kjohnw said:
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/856582626693566464
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/8565715925701754890 -
It's amazing. I think of myself as fairly right wing (particularly on economic, finance and defence issues), but I am constantly gobsmacked by how far to the right of me many on PB are! What, you want us to be China!!!!???AndyJS said:
The Chinese wiped out foot-binding in just a few years because they were determined to stop it.MTimT said:
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
I hear genocide is pretty good at wiping out practices you don't like also.0 -
The shortlist for Hx and Uppers
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/04/exclusive-hornchurch-and-upminster-shortlist.html0 -
PP Con 390-419 7/4 also looks interesting.Tissue_Price said:
Fill your boots on the latter.another_richard said:SkyBet have 5/6 Con 394+ seats but 13/8 400+ seats.
That seems to be a narrow gap.
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WRT the Remain target list, not only must the constituency be pro-Remain, there must also be a credible challenger. I think that only Kingston & Surbiton and Twickenham meet these criteria.0
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I think we're in uncharted territory here, aren't we? Curtice could turn out to be right. We really don't know how badly Labour's support is going to flake off, or how much of the Ukip vote might eventually migrate to the Tories. And we certainly don't know what effect events could have.ToryJim said:
Polling suggests Labours entrenched support in its heartland is no longer there.peter_from_putney said:
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this.isam said:
Bet 365 398.5peter_from_putney said:FPT
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
I don't see how the Conservatives won't come out of this with a comfortable working majority, but the final numbers are anybody's guess!0 -
Nice to see May offering a positive vision for Wales.Scott_P said:0 -
Betfair Sportsbook have the Tories priced at 4/7 to win Brentford & Isleworth, representing a 43% better return than the 2/5 odds quoted by Skybet.another_richard said:For some reason SkyBet have Conservatives to win Brentford at 2/5 but to win Ealing Acton at 1/6.
This constituency is ranked by UK Polling Report in fourth place in "Labour's Defence List". Based on the current state of the polls, one might easily reach the conclusion that this is approaching what some punters consider to be free money, but as ever DYOR.0 -
And just before I go, what is Kezia on? Did it really escape SLAB's attention that it was the SNP that took 40 of their Scottish seats just 2 years ago, not the hated Tories? The idea that Labour can get elected in Scotland (as they were for 20 years or more) simply to keep the Tories out is bizarre. When are they going to realise that their fight is actually with the SNP who are completely destroying them?
It is the SNP who are going to take 150 of their Council seats next month as well. At least try to fight them before its too late, for goodness sake.0 -
And I wonder how many Conservatives in SW London are going to like being told what to do by the likes of Mandelson.Sean_F said:WRT the Remain target list, not only must the constituency be pro-Remain, there must also be a credible challenger. I think that only Kingston & Surbiton and Twickenham meet these criteria.
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I like the idea of Mandy's campaign though. Something us Remoaners can get behind.bobajobPB said:
The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.FrancisUrquhart said:Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/
Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.MTimT said:
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.Ishmael_Z said:
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
As mentioned in response to Andy, I am talking about policies and ways of changing behaviours that I would be happy implementing myself, or having others implement in my community. Measures that hold true to my value system. I am ruling out genocide and other extreme measures.0 -
Why shouldn't she warn against these kinds of Leftist coalitions? They happen.SandyRentool said:
Nice to see May offering a positive vision for Wales.Scott_P said:
I certainly don't want the Welsh and Scots separatists having a hand in Government. Neither will an awful lot of people in those nations. They are May's target audience.0 -
Has Gisela Allen hacked your account?MTimT said:Measures that hold true to my value system. I am ruling out genocide and other extreme measures.
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Under normal circumstances, a Tory leader heading to Wales would be seen as a wasted journey. After today’s YouGov poll result, they’ll probably roll out the red carpet…Scott_P said:Paul Brand✔@PaulBrandITV
Theresa May will blitz Wales tomorrow as polls show Tories on track to make big gains, drawing on past Lab-Plaid coalition to whip up fears.
10:45 PM - 24 Apr 20170 -
Campaign looks interesting - can't find a table showing the vote to make to unseat the Leaver howeverRoger said:
I like the idea of Mandy's campaign though. Something us Remoaners can get behind.bobajobPB said:
The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.FrancisUrquhart said:Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/
Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)0 -
It would be interesting to see some polling from Merseyside to find out if Labour support is holding up as it usually does regardless of what's happening in the rest of the country.0
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Aww touching.DavidL said:And just before I go, what is Kezia on? Did it really escape SLAB's attention that it was the SNP that took 40 of their Scottish seats just 2 years ago, not the hated Tories? The idea that Labour can get elected in Scotland (as they were for 20 years or more) simply to keep the Tories out is bizarre. When are they going to realise that their fight is actually with the SNP who are completely destroying them?
It is the SNP who are going to take 150 of their Council seats next month as well. At least try to fight them before its too late, for goodness sake.0 -
How can you have a rally in a range of locations?Scott_P said:0 -
Well we'd all like all parties to do nothing but offer positive visions for the country in theory, but in practice going negative works more than it fails.SandyRentool said:
Nice to see May offering a positive vision for Wales.Scott_P said:hts://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/856625277497167872
Besides, these things are two sided - you offer an implicitly positive vision by contrasting yourself with the negative opponent. If people like and trust you, it works.0 -
For those fancying an up bet on the Tories at these levels, that's a very good spot by you.another_richard said:SkyBet have 5/6 Con 394+ seats but 13/8 400+ seats.
That seems to be a narrow gap.0 -
Absolubtely enormous, it isn't even one of the more leavey London constituencies (57% remain). "Max !" with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.peter_from_putney said:
Betfair Sportsbook have the Tories priced at 4/7 to win Brentford & Isleworth, representing a 43% better return than the 2/5 odds quoted by Skybet.another_richard said:For some reason SkyBet have Conservatives to win Brentford at 2/5 but to win Ealing Acton at 1/6.
This constituency is ranked by UK Polling Report in fourth place in "Labour's Defence List". Based on the current state of the polls, one might easily reach the conclusion that this is approaching what some punters consider to be free money, but as ever DYOR.0 -
Ok, as much as I'd like that to be true, is it not a bit early to say that?MonikerDiCanio said:
Sturgeon is going through some kind of breakdown, Davidson has established a crushing psychological dominance over the FM.CarlottaVance said:
The word du jour is The SNP's record in government 'Tories'kjohnw said:
hts://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/856582626693566464
hps://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/8565715925701754890 -
I know the feeling, "I know his face but what was his name? You know, that Cheeky Girls one".Black_Rook said:
I don't particularly dislike the Lib Dems actually. I was making a genuine point. In a completely flippant way, but a genuine point nonetheless.ReggieCide said:
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)stodge said:
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?Black_Rook said:
Eh?murali_s said:
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?Black_Rook said:
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.dr_spyn said:Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
I'd recognise a fair few of them. Not sure how many non-geeks would though.0 -
Peter Mandelson welcomes Macron's first round won on Newsnight (Macron apparently has a Mandelson book in his study) while also launching a new campaign to back anti Brexit candidates0
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No, but she appears to have hacked a fair number of PBers accounts this evening.williamglenn said:
Has Gisela Allen hacked your account?MTimT said:Measures that hold true to my value system. I am ruling out genocide and other extreme measures.
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Now about those metropolitan elite that are so popular...HYUFD said:Peter Mandelson welcomes Macron's first round won on Newsnight (Macron apparently has a Mandelson book in his study) while also launching a new campaign to back anti Brexit candidates
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What is the Labour position on Brexit?
Lord Mandelson: Search me....
Newsnight0
