As I watched the results of the EU referendum roll in last year, I knew I was witnessing something that amounted to more than a rejection of the European Union.
It was a quiet revolution by millions of people who felt they had been let-down and left behind by politicians of all parties for far too long.
And that quiet revolution was particularly profound here in Wales, where that sense that there is a serious gulf between politicians and the people is particularly acute.
That is because, for decades, the Labour Party has taken people for granted in Wales – just as it has in other communities across Britain.
I hate to rain on the Uber unionist celebration except that this TNS poll reported in the Mail is so old it has whiskers on it - having started polling on the 20 March and finishing on the 11 April!!!!!
Since then there have been three other polls from BMG, Panelbase and Survation showing independence support at 49 per cent, 45 per cent and 47 per cent. All three showed independence support RISING and the last two are very recent in being post election announcement and finishing polling ONE MONTH AFTER the TNS survey started.
In other words it doesn't mean that TNS is not a real poll just that three more recent real polls show the opposite suggesting that it is an outlier. It also suggests that the unionist celebrations may be premature!
Luckily, the Scottish electorate now has two upcoming elections in the next couple of months where they can really tell us what they think of both the SNP and another Indy Ref...
Typical...There is rarely a Welsh thread on PB and whenever there is I am travelling somewhere and miss it.... So some belated commnets::
Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:
This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.
Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.
Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.
Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!
So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:
There was an interesting series of Tweets yesterday by Election Data about some background to the shifting fortunes of Labour & Conservatives in Wales - ascribing a fair chunk of it to the demographic shift to an older, more 'c' conservative population that's also more likely to vote than the younger less conservative voter.
So, in Scotland:
The number of households headed by people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost 54% between 2012 and 2037. In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 65 are projected to increase by just 3%. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 and over is projected to more than double over the same period, from 77400 to just over 200,000.
There was an interesting series of Tweets yesterday by Election Data about some background to the shifting fortunes of Labour & Conservatives in Wales - ascribing a fair chunk of it to the demographic shift to an older, more 'c' conservative population that's also more likely to vote than the younger less conservative voter.
So, in Scotland:
The number of households headed by people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost 54% between 2012 and 2037. In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 65 are projected to increase by just 3%. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 and over is projected to more than double over the same period, from 77400 to just over 200,000.
Comments
As I watched the results of the EU referendum roll in last year, I knew I was witnessing something that amounted to more than a rejection of the European Union.
It was a quiet revolution by millions of people who felt they had been let-down and left behind by politicians of all parties for far too long.
And that quiet revolution was particularly profound here in Wales, where that sense that there is a serious gulf between politicians and the people is particularly acute.
That is because, for decades, the Labour Party has taken people for granted in Wales – just as it has in other communities across Britain.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-attacks-welsh-labours-record-12939213
Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:
This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.
Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.
Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.
Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!
So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:
Lab 33% 18 seats
Con 33% 17 Seats
PC 15% 4 Seats
LD 10% 1 seat
UKIP 5% 0
Others 4% 0
Still undeniably good for Conservatives
So, in Scotland:
The number of households headed by people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost 54% between 2012 and 2037. In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 65 are projected to increase by just 3%. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 and over is projected to more than double over the same period, from 77400 to just over 200,000.
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/DataGrid/Age/AgePopMig
SindyRef - Definitely vote %:
18 - 34 : 71
35 - 54: 79
55+ : 90
SindyRef - Yes / No / Undecided %
18 - 34 : 56 / 29 / 15
35 - 54: 40 / 49 / 9
55+ : 32 / 59 / 8