Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
Labour run Wales, couldn't they start to reeducate them? Seriously though, you are screwed when you are blaming the electorate for your problems
Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.
Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.
Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.
I was expecting a bit more tubthumping, but it was robotic. His reading of the Alan Roden issued lines on Scotland were woeful too.
When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?
Its weird, he goes from ranting like a nutter on speakers corner about the secret world order controlling everything to a robotic speech to trade unionists.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
I'm guessing these aren't Welsh Steelworkers who voted out in the referendum, whose grandad, grandma and great grandad voted Labour all their lives - but now..
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
Maybe Paddy could give up his Lords seat and go back to the Commons! Or does accepting a life peerage mean you can no longer sit in the Commons even if you were to give up the tight to sit in the Lords, like Ashcroft?
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.</blockquote
I think Labour are great value at 4/7 with Sky. Shame they are only laying it for buttons/
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
David "Dodgy Expenses" Laws fancy another go? What about Steve Webb or Beaker the Park Ranger?
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. .
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
/
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.
Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.
Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.
I was expecting a bit more tubthumping, but it was robotic. His reading of the Alan Roden issued lines on Scotland were woeful too.
When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?
Its weird, he goes from ranting like a nutter on speakers corner about the secret world order controlling everything to a robotic speech to trade unionists.
Remember when Labour had politicians with gravitas? Even Gordon Brown can roll out a barnstorming speech when required (albeit rather over done in the last few years, as SLab got panicky).
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
English labour supporters no doubt who have no idea how labour have failed Wales and by allowing Corbyn free reign have administered their own coup de grace
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
It's hard to see the Conservatives not polling 25-30% here. That leaves the Lib Dems having to win over half the people who voted Labour in 2015. I don't see it happening, as those voters will mostly be people on low incomes living in social housing, many of them black voters, who are loyal to Labour.
Hornsey & Wood Green is a far better target for Lib Dems, despite the MP being a Remainer.
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
String up the abusers and traffickers as well then. No mercy and no compromise.
I occasionally copy posts which I feel make a particularly good point or are well expressed in some fashion, and since we are gearing up for an election, I stumbled across this one on vapidity of political pledges, which seems like it will be very relevant across the next weeks
You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.
But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?
I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.
I think we have too much of the wrong kind of fairness.
Are you counting the Scots who are notoriously ginger?
Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.
Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
Labour run Wales, couldn't they start to reeducate them? Seriously though, you are screwed when you are blaming the electorate for your problems
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
But the beauty of an effective screening program is, there's no one to string up because the practice is killed stone dead.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Bet 365 398.5
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this. Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
With reference to the thread header, will we see this level of animosity across the campaign against several parties? After all if Leavers are targeted like this then Remainers in other seats will experience similar. It will not make for a very edifying election night, though it will be historically memorable. I think Corbyn/Labour MPs defeated in this election might suffer similar abuse to that of David Mellor in 1997.
Twitter Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.
particularly those immigrants who mutilate their female children and treat their women as vassals
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
It's hard to see the Conservatives not polling 25-30% here. That leaves the Lib Dems having to win over half the people who voted Labour in 2015. I don't see it happening, as those voters will mostly be people on low incomes living in social housing, many of them black voters, who are loyal to Labour.
Hornsey & Wood Green is a far better target for Lib Dems, despite the MP being a Remainer.
Twitter Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?
Interesting would be independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, which would really mean the writing is on the wall.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. .
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
/
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
I accept all that you say.
What I want is the girls not to suffer this fate - I am not entirely clear if you are saying this approach is working though?
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.
Indeed. The 'wrong' types of Christianity, for a start.
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Bet 365 398.5
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this. Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
Polling suggests Labours entrenched support in its heartland is no longer there.
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
The Chinese wiped out foot-binding in just a few years because they were determined to stop it.
Twitter Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?
If the SNP vote is down a bit as some of the polling is indicating then it is possible that the Unionists will be further ahead and that would indeed be "interesting". But it is going to have to wait until the morning for me one way or another.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
Still digesting that Welsh poll this evening, has it caused shockwaves in Welsh Labour or were there indications of a swing to the Tories on the doorsteps already? Attended our Scots Conservative association meeting tonight where we selected Andrew Bowie as our candidate in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Still waiting to hear who will stand against Alex Salmond in Gordon, that association was just waiting to select their candidate when we left.
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do know that rates in second generation migrants are much lower than in first generation. Rates are also lower in more educated migrants.
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
But the beauty of an effective screening program is, there's no one to string up because the practice is killed stone dead.
What is your budgetary plan to finance this massive targetting of police and childcare resources? It is encouraging to hear PB rightwingers advocating investment in public services for women and ethnic minorities.
Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
English born population in Wales, 2001 census: 20.32% Number of Welsh Tory MPs: zero
English born population in Wales, 2011 census: 20.77% Number of Welsh Tory MPs: seven
ONS mid-year population estimates - net within UK migration to Wales
2012: 4,500 2013: -700 2014: 200 2015: 800
Number of Welsh Tory MPs in 2015: eleven
Methinks there may be a flaw in the "Evil St George Flag Waving Colonial Settlers" hypothesis...
Twitter Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
I know I'm always despondent about these things, but it has to be showing Yes in the lead right? Interesting would have to mean change, and that means either a big swing to no, which seems weird with the prospect of a bit Tory win on the horizon, or bit of a shift to Yes, since currently No has been shown leading?
Interesting would be independence support becoming decoupled from SNP support, which would really mean the writing is on the wall.
The only indyref poll we have had this week had Yes on 43% ie the exact same score as the SNP also polled at the weekend so I don't think that follows. 'Interesting' also means dull, if Yes was ahead a journalist would have said 'shocking' or something similar, not that it matters as if the SNP loses MPs there is zero chance of May granting any official indyref2 in the next Parliament
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
We've been trying to integrate Islamic immigrants to the UK for 40 years. What changes will be required to make a success of the policy instead of our current failure of a policy.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
Does the candidate have to be alive?
No, they can't nominate Charles Kennedy. That's just wrong. Shame on you.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)
I don't particularly dislike the Lib Dems actually. I was making a genuine point. In a completely flippant way, but a genuine point nonetheless.
I'd recognise a fair few of them. Not sure how many non-geeks would though.
It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
Why?
Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
This proposal fails the smell test. .
So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
Please read current national policy:
There hsnipese perpetrators to get away with it.
A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
/
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
There are no reliable population rates over time, but we do
I accept all that you say.
What I want is the girls not to suffer this fate - I am not entirely clear if you are saying this approach is working though?
No one is advocating permitting the practice, what is being discussed are the merits of a punitive vs a more holistic approach in eradicating it.
Frankly evidence is thin on the ground for any approach.
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
The Chinese wiped out foot-binding in just a few years because they were determined to stop it.
It's amazing. I think of myself as fairly right wing (particularly on economic, finance and defence issues), but I am constantly gobsmacked by how far to the right of me many on PB are! What, you want us to be China!!!!???
I hear genocide is pretty good at wiping out practices you don't like also.
WRT the Remain target list, not only must the constituency be pro-Remain, there must also be a credible challenger. I think that only Kingston & Surbiton and Twickenham meet these criteria.
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
Bet 365 398.5
Wow, that equates to a Tory majority of 147 - a couple of days ago we were told by Prof. Curtice that for the Tories to gain a majority of more than 90 would prove very difficult on account of Labour's entrenched levels of support in its heartlands. It looks like someone is going to be proved very wrong on this. Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
Polling suggests Labours entrenched support in its heartland is no longer there.
I think we're in uncharted territory here, aren't we? Curtice could turn out to be right. We really don't know how badly Labour's support is going to flake off, or how much of the Ukip vote might eventually migrate to the Tories. And we certainly don't know what effect events could have.
I don't see how the Conservatives won't come out of this with a comfortable working majority, but the final numbers are anybody's guess!
For some reason SkyBet have Conservatives to win Brentford at 2/5 but to win Ealing Acton at 1/6.
Betfair Sportsbook have the Tories priced at 4/7 to win Brentford & Isleworth, representing a 43% better return than the 2/5 odds quoted by Skybet. This constituency is ranked by UK Polling Report in fourth place in "Labour's Defence List". Based on the current state of the polls, one might easily reach the conclusion that this is approaching what some punters consider to be free money, but as ever DYOR.
And just before I go, what is Kezia on? Did it really escape SLAB's attention that it was the SNP that took 40 of their Scottish seats just 2 years ago, not the hated Tories? The idea that Labour can get elected in Scotland (as they were for 20 years or more) simply to keep the Tories out is bizarre. When are they going to realise that their fight is actually with the SNP who are completely destroying them?
It is the SNP who are going to take 150 of their Council seats next month as well. At least try to fight them before its too late, for goodness sake.
WRT the Remain target list, not only must the constituency be pro-Remain, there must also be a credible challenger. I think that only Kingston & Surbiton and Twickenham meet these criteria.
And I wonder how many Conservatives in SW London are going to like being told what to do by the likes of Mandelson.
WRT the Remain target list, not only must the constituency be pro-Remain, there must also be a credible challenger. I think that only Kingston & Surbiton and Twickenham meet these criteria.
Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
Really? You change lots of behaviours by actually making them illegal, identifying their practice and prosecuting and imprisoning the offenders. Positive Deviance is possibly a useful second string approach if you are a Westerner in Egypt, but this isn't Egypt and the Westerners make the rules here. The snowflake objection to screening simply evaporates (or technically, sublimates) if you screen the whole population without reference to ethnicity or religion. Job done.
Legislation at best changes some people's behaviour, not everyone's. If your approach worked to the extent you imply it should vis-a-vis FGM, there would be no crime of any kind at all, because it has been legislated and is policed.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
Just because Christianity wasn't stamped out doesn't mean a lot of other things haven't been over the millennia. Christians managed to stamp out a lot of other belief systems once they were in the ascendancy for instance.
As mentioned in response to Andy, I am talking about policies and ways of changing behaviours that I would be happy implementing myself, or having others implement in my community. Measures that hold true to my value system. I am ruling out genocide and other extreme measures.
Nice to see May offering a positive vision for Wales.
Why shouldn't she warn against these kinds of Leftist coalitions? They happen.
I certainly don't want the Welsh and Scots separatists having a hand in Government. Neither will an awful lot of people in those nations. They are May's target audience.
Theresa May will blitz Wales tomorrow as polls show Tories on track to make big gains, drawing on past Lab-Plaid coalition to whip up fears. 10:45 PM - 24 Apr 2017
Under normal circumstances, a Tory leader heading to Wales would be seen as a wasted journey. After today’s YouGov poll result, they’ll probably roll out the red carpet…
Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
It would be interesting to see some polling from Merseyside to find out if Labour support is holding up as it usually does regardless of what's happening in the rest of the country.
And just before I go, what is Kezia on? Did it really escape SLAB's attention that it was the SNP that took 40 of their Scottish seats just 2 years ago, not the hated Tories? The idea that Labour can get elected in Scotland (as they were for 20 years or more) simply to keep the Tories out is bizarre. When are they going to realise that their fight is actually with the SNP who are completely destroying them?
It is the SNP who are going to take 150 of their Council seats next month as well. At least try to fight them before its too late, for goodness sake.
Nice to see May offering a positive vision for Wales.
Well we'd all like all parties to do nothing but offer positive visions for the country in theory, but in practice going negative works more than it fails.
Besides, these things are two sided - you offer an implicitly positive vision by contrasting yourself with the negative opponent. If people like and trust you, it works.
For some reason SkyBet have Conservatives to win Brentford at 2/5 but to win Ealing Acton at 1/6.
Betfair Sportsbook have the Tories priced at 4/7 to win Brentford & Isleworth, representing a 43% better return than the 2/5 odds quoted by Skybet. This constituency is ranked by UK Polling Report in fourth place in "Labour's Defence List". Based on the current state of the polls, one might easily reach the conclusion that this is approaching what some punters consider to be free money, but as ever DYOR.
Absolubtely enormous, it isn't even one of the more leavey London constituencies (57% remain). "Max !" with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
Eh?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
You really don't like the Lib Dems, do you ?
I think he's saying he doesn't recognise any (unless they're wearing a rosette?)
I don't particularly dislike the Lib Dems actually. I was making a genuine point. In a completely flippant way, but a genuine point nonetheless.
I'd recognise a fair few of them. Not sure how many non-geeks would though.
I know the feeling, "I know his face but what was his name? You know, that Cheeky Girls one".
Peter Mandelson welcomes Macron's first round won on Newsnight (Macron apparently has a Mandelson book in his study) while also launching a new campaign to back anti Brexit candidates
Peter Mandelson welcomes Macron's first round won on Newsnight (Macron apparently has a Mandelson book in his study) while also launching a new campaign to back anti Brexit candidates
Now about those metropolitan elite that are so popular...
Comments
There is always a tabloid "string em up" culture over child protection issues, but experience has not always been that removing children from substandard parents is the best way forward. The legions of children in care abused by staff or trafficked into prostitution tell us that.
RBS?
Hornsey & Wood Green is a far better target for Lib Dems, despite the MP being a Remainer.
Now Orchestra Baobab... v nice
Alan RodenVerified account @AlanRoden 12m12 minutes ago
Interesting new #indyref2 poll out in a couple of hours.
https://devtracker.dfid.gov.uk/projects/GB-1-203024/
Money well spent.
Also to gain a majority of this magnitude does rather suggest that the number of seats the LibDems are set to win back from the Tories is likely to be limited, probably to single figures.
Whatever we may feel about the rights and wrongs of FGM, it is deeply embedded culturally in the communities that practice it. Simply banning a practice does not work. Think about the Christian martyrs being fed to the lions. That worked well to stamp out Christianity, didn't it?
Fiat simply does achieve 100% compliance with anything, even when the penalty for non-compliance is death. If you want to achieve high and enduring levels of change, you have to change the mindset and the culture.
Positive deviance is a general technique which works in all cultures in all countries, where there are non-technical reasons as to why people are unable to change habits. Before dismissing it, read up about it.
A clip of Mellor vs Goldsmith is posted below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PrcpbuhIm0
That seems to be a narrow gap.
What I want is the girls not to suffer this fate - I am not entirely clear if you are saying this approach is working though?
It is a surefire loser but I couldn't resist:
Labour to fail to win a single seat 501.00 loool £1 stake
Number of Welsh Tory MPs: zero
English born population in Wales, 2011 census: 20.77%
Number of Welsh Tory MPs: seven
ONS mid-year population estimates - net within UK migration to Wales
2012: 4,500
2013: -700
2014: 200
2015: 800
Number of Welsh Tory MPs in 2015: eleven
Methinks there may be a flaw in the "Evil St George Flag Waving Colonial Settlers" hypothesis...
Next business please.
I'd recognise a fair few of them. Not sure how many non-geeks would though.
Frankly evidence is thin on the ground for any approach.
I hear genocide is pretty good at wiping out practices you don't like also.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/04/exclusive-hornchurch-and-upminster-shortlist.html
I don't see how the Conservatives won't come out of this with a comfortable working majority, but the final numbers are anybody's guess!
This constituency is ranked by UK Polling Report in fourth place in "Labour's Defence List". Based on the current state of the polls, one might easily reach the conclusion that this is approaching what some punters consider to be free money, but as ever DYOR.
It is the SNP who are going to take 150 of their Council seats next month as well. At least try to fight them before its too late, for goodness sake.
As mentioned in response to Andy, I am talking about policies and ways of changing behaviours that I would be happy implementing myself, or having others implement in my community. Measures that hold true to my value system. I am ruling out genocide and other extreme measures.
I certainly don't want the Welsh and Scots separatists having a hand in Government. Neither will an awful lot of people in those nations. They are May's target audience.
Besides, these things are two sided - you offer an implicitly positive vision by contrasting yourself with the negative opponent. If people like and trust you, it works.
Although maybe she is going the hologram route, it is getting popular.
Lord Mandelson: Search me....
Newsnight