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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets
The first week of the general election campaign has been characterised by the huge move to CON in the polls and also the number of big names who would have let it be known that they are leaving the political scene.
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Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
Why won't they accept the will of the people and disband?
How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.
It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/
A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
He has the opportunity to say vote UKIP, next 6 weeks vital to ensure real brexit, instead says next 6 weeks a test of Lord Nuttall's leadership.
Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
What is wrong with this as an approach?
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/apr/24/artists-urge-radiohead-to-cancel-gig-in-israel
And as for Laws:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
I dare say that the Lib Dems *might* be able to get back into 2nd place (although even beating the Tories to that mark will be hard work for them,) but I see no realistic likelihood of their winning. That would require a 23% swing from Lab to Lib Dem.
But that's about it.
Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"
That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
The Lib Dems may well win the posh parts, but they're outnumbered by the rough parts. This is like trying to beat Michael Howard in 2005.
I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.
More upside than downside, IMO.
"Remain campaigners urge voters to unseat Brexit-backing MPs"
Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
Going to wait for the locals ?
You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.
But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?
I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
Anyone without a view, and with accounts, should just back the best over and under lines possible for same stake and get 10/1 the middle
As soon as the polls close at 10pm on June 8th, every single vote counted for the SNP will be claimed by her to be a vote in favour of a second referendum.
It is inevitable. In the long run, it is all she and the party really care about.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-brexit-plan-general-election-unveiled-keir-starmer-eu-nationals-environmental-protection-parliament-veto_uk_58fe63a8e4b018a9ce5dd0df?2yq
But in seriousness, one can define fair so many different ways, but everyone will always think they are being it.
Not to infer I think the UKIP response is the way to go but as the luvies would say
Something must be done.
That's the reason we're having an election. May lied.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/856582626693566464
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/856571592570175489
Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.
The closest is among 35-54 age group where his lead is 53-47. Among younger and older voters, Macron is much further ahead.
The numbers of those who might change their mind doesn't give Le Pen much hope at this time.
The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.
The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.
If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great
It was the sort of package many Leavers on here advocated until May got all Moggy on our asses.
Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.
The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org
When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?
The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.
Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?