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SystemSystem Posts: 12,597
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

The first week of the general election campaign has been characterised by the huge move to CON in the polls and also the number of big names who would have let it be known that they are leaving the political scene.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    First!
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,015
    second like Hoey?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,190
    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2017
    FPT:
    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Saw a fairly negative vox pop for Hoey earlier, the LDs seem to be targeting the Remainers hard early.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,240
    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    UKIP. The only UKIPper ever to be elected MP is no longer a member of the party. Farage has stood for Westminster what, seven times?
    Why won't they accept the will of the people and disband?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    Do we know why two Lib Dem in key target seats in Somerset have stepped down?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Farage not saying vote UKIP, UKIP not saying vote UKIP in 1/3rd of seats, UKIP vote share sub 5% 9/4 on Skybet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,660
    Jeez, that poster looks like the villain rejected from the last Batman movie for being too scary.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
    Hardly surprising. All the polls have had LePen losing to Macron by roughly that margin for months.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    edited April 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The irony cannot be lost but in the conservative party they found the right leader for the times and by the previous leader's actions (David Cameron) not only have they united the party but overseen the destruction of the labour party, decimated labour in Wales, and may just have saved the Union.

    David Cameron's legacy not looking at all bad for him if all this comes about

    Too early to celebrate just yet, but if they have managed to have just the right leaders for the right time, the Tories have been very lucky indeed.
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    That'd be surprisingly close given past reports, if still a clear win. I thought he was heading for more of a 65-70 sort of result?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Farage not saying vote UKIP, UKIP not saying vote UKIP in 1/3rd of seats, UKIP vote share sub 5% 9/4 on Skybet.

    Has Farage really not said that? Blimey. They do seem very done. Even their eye catching policies today feel half hearted, going through the motions.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,648
    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    Massively gentrified and very strongly remain... Hoey has got to be under pressure
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Newcastle Utd are promoted to the Premier League after their 4 - 1 win vs Preston tonight.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    foxinsoxuk said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
    Hardly surprising. All the polls have had LePen losing to Macron by roughly that margin for months.
    Ah, my apologies. I thought 40/60 was the Le Pen/Fillon split and that Macron was performing better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    He probably is, but he was mighty brave in taking the odds on the LDs at 10/1.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,374
    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:


    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The irony cannot be lost but in the conservative party they found the right leader for the times and by the previous leader's actions (David Cameron) not only have they united the party but overseen the destruction of the labour party, decimated labour in Wales, and may just have saved the Union.

    David Cameron's legacy not looking at all bad for him if all this comes about

    Too early to celebrate just yet, but if they have managed to have just the right leaders for the right time, the Tories have been very lucky indeed.
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    That'd be surprisingly close given past reports, if still a clear win. I thought he was heading for more of a 65-70 sort of result?
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Farage not saying vote UKIP, UKIP not saying vote UKIP in 1/3rd of seats, UKIP vote share sub 5% 9/4 on Skybet.

    Has Farage really not said that? Blimey. They do seem very done. Even their eye catching policies today feel half hearted, going through the motions.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/nigel-farage-paul-nuttall-has-six-weeks-prove-ukip-leader/

    He has the opportunity to say vote UKIP, next 6 weeks vital to ensure real brexit, instead says next 6 weeks a test of Lord Nuttall's leadership.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    Are they hoping their backing will make them lose then?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    Whose who of luuvies not happy...

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/apr/24/artists-urge-radiohead-to-cancel-gig-in-israel
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,379
    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    The demographics of that seat are shifting fast - heavy development recently. Still, feels a long shot and I wonder how far it is being trumpeted more to further the narrative than win the seat.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Saw a fairly negative vox pop for Hoey earlier, the LDs seem to be targeting the Remainers hard early.

    The Lib Dems are 22,000 votes behind Hoey in 4th place in Vauxhall, they are still at half their 2010 strength in the national polls, and even in a very strong Remain seat not nearly everyone who voted that way is going to be obsessed with Brexit.

    I dare say that the Lib Dems *might* be able to get back into 2nd place (although even beating the Tories to that mark will be hard work for them,) but I see no realistic likelihood of their winning. That would require a 23% swing from Lab to Lib Dem.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,374
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
    There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    He probably is, but he was mighty brave in taking the odds on the LDs at 10/1.
    I don't think it's going to be particularly close. The LibDems will make it to third, and will probably reduce the Labour lead to under 25%.

    But that's about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    The Telegraph aint much of a paper these days, certainly not great.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    That is a shame actually. I'm fine with the phrase in theory as identifying a specific type of belligerent and obstructive remainer (though we know it has and is applied more widely), and equivalent terms for Brexiters, again in theory (Brexitard might fall afoul of the retard connection), but I prefer my press, even partisan press, to be a little more subtle about it in tone and language.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    But smart move by Nicola to bring up 'Police investigation of MPs' when that brings up SNP elected MPs now facing charges.....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    "optics", "smell test" - twatty metaphors versus the literal fact of forced clitoridectomy. What a jerk.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,190
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
    Fillon voters split Macron 41% Le Pen 33%, Melenchon voters Macron 51% Le Pen 19%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    "optics", "smell test" - twatty metaphors versus the literal fact of forced clitoridectomy. What a jerk.
    Did you deliberately use the word "twatty"?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    That is a shame actually. I'm fine with the phrase in theory as identifying a specific type of belligerent and obstructive remainer (though we know it has and is applied more widely), and equivalent terms for Brexiters, again in theory (Brexitard might fall afoul of the retard connection), but I prefer my press, even partisan press, to be a little more subtle about it in tone and language.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    The Telegraph aint much of a paper these days, certainly not great.
    It is still notionally a quality (broadsheet) newspaper. Admittedly it is not what it was.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    "There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,873
    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,240
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    The demographics of that seat are shifting fast - heavy development recently. Still, feels a long shot and I wonder how far it is being trumpeted more to further the narrative than win the seat.
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think Robert Smithson is right about Vauxhall. It's a fairly rough constituency on the whole, and poorer voters there will stick with Labour.

    Massively gentrified and very strongly remain... Hoey has got to be under pressure
    43% social housing, 32% private rented, 25% Afro-Caribbean.

    The Lib Dems may well win the posh parts, but they're outnumbered by the rough parts. This is like trying to beat Michael Howard in 2005.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    That is a shame actually. I'm fine with the phrase in theory as identifying a specific type of belligerent and obstructive remainer (though we know it has and is applied more widely), and equivalent terms for Brexiters, again in theory (Brexitard might fall afoul of the retard connection), but I prefer my press, even partisan press, to be a little more subtle about it in tone and language.
    Virtue signaller in road rage rumpus (The Guardian)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    "optics", "smell test" - twatty metaphors versus the literal fact of forced clitoridectomy. What a jerk.
    Did you deliberately use the word "twatty"?
    Yes.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    unlikely, but not impossible.

    I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.

    More upside than downside, IMO.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    "There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".
    Sorry, I missed your answer to 'How many Tory MPs have been charged'?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    Eat your heart out, Bladwin!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    "There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".
    Sorry, I missed your answer to 'How many Tory MPs have been charged'?
    We'll know soon, but I doubt it will be 0.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    I don't want to ignore the problem, and I want the health and wellbeing of young girls to be paramount. I just don't want to do it in a sensible and sensitive way rather than get jackbooted up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    What if this is the only way to stop the practice?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    bobajobPB said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    That is a shame actually. I'm fine with the phrase in theory as identifying a specific type of belligerent and obstructive remainer (though we know it has and is applied more widely), and equivalent terms for Brexiters, again in theory (Brexitard might fall afoul of the retard connection), but I prefer my press, even partisan press, to be a little more subtle about it in tone and language.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    The Telegraph aint much of a paper these days, certainly not great.
    It is still notionally a quality (broadsheet) newspaper. Admittedly it is not what it was.
    The same story in the Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/remain-campaigners-urge-voters-to-unseat-brexit-backing-mps

    "Remain campaigners urge voters to unseat Brexit-backing MPs"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    edited April 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.

    Any reasons given? You would think Bath was a potential gain for LDs.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    Unbeknown to me, until two mins ago, I am listening to some nice music on Spotify by an Islamic Jew combo! Anyone care to guess?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    MaxPB said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
    There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.
    A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.

    Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,873
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    unlikely, but not impossible.

    I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.

    More upside than downside, IMO.
    What is your view ?

    Going to wait for the locals ?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dr_spyn said:

    Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.

    Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    You can give yourself 3 more seats here: https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    I occasionally copy posts which I feel make a particularly good point or are well expressed in some fashion, and since we are gearing up for an election, I stumbled across this one on vapidity of political pledges, which seems like it will be very relevant across the next weeks

    You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.

    But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?


    I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    "There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".
    Sorry, I missed your answer to 'How many Tory MPs have been charged'?
    If none are charged great move on.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    What if this is the only way to stop the practice?
    It isn't the only way to stop it.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,983
    For some reason SkyBet have Conservatives to win Brentford at 2/5 but to win Ealing Acton at 1/6.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    What if this is the only way to stop the practice?
    I don't believe it is, and I think there is much we should attempt before we head straight to the illiberal option.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    Remove 'leftard' and that's probably true!
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

    this is hilarious https://www.facebook.com/studentmoneysaver/videos/1422030677855850/
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    edited April 2017
    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Bet 365 398.5

    Anyone without a view, and with accounts, should just back the best over and under lines possible for same stake and get 10/1 the middle
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,993
    kle4 said:

    I occasionally copy posts which I feel make a particularly good point or are well expressed in some fashion, and since we are gearing up for an election, I stumbled across this one on vapidity of political pledges, which seems like it will be very relevant across the next weeks

    You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.

    But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?


    I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.

    I think we have too much of the wrong kind of fairness.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

    Sturgeon is such a dreadful liar.

    As soon as the polls close at 10pm on June 8th, every single vote counted for the SNP will be claimed by her to be a vote in favour of a second referendum.

    It is inevitable. In the long run, it is all she and the party really care about.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Black_Rook said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.

    Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
    Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    unlikely, but not impossible.

    I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.

    More upside than downside, IMO.
    What is your view ?

    Going to wait for the locals ?
    need. more. polls.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Labour Brexit:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-brexit-plan-general-election-unveiled-keir-starmer-eu-nationals-environmental-protection-parliament-veto_uk_58fe63a8e4b018a9ce5dd0df?2yq
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,873
    Tissue_Price said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    You can give yourself 3 more seats here: https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/
    I'd love to know where you think Plaid's FIFTH seat is coming from xD
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    I occasionally copy posts which I feel make a particularly good point or are well expressed in some fashion, and since we are gearing up for an election, I stumbled across this one on vapidity of political pledges, which seems like it will be very relevant across the next weeks

    You can actually judge a political pledge's worth by examining the contrary argument. If both are valid, then the original pledge is worth something. The classic right/left low taxes/high public spending argument would be one such example.

    But when a politician says they want a fairer Britain, what's the bloody point of wasting breath on such nonsense? Who's going to stand up on stage and proclaim we have too much fairness?


    I leave it anonymous for now to see if the person who wrote it recognises their words.

    I think we have too much of the wrong kind of fairness.
    I'm a reformed neo-fairite, as it happens. Those other fairness supporters can go hang.

    But in seriousness, one can define fair so many different ways, but everyone will always think they are being it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
    How many prosecutions ?

    Not to infer I think the UKIP response is the way to go but as the luvies would say

    Something must be done.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,374
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
    There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.
    A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.

    Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
    Or not worrying about the "optics" of putting Mr and Mrs Ali on trial for abusing their daughter or Dr Mohammed in prison for mutilating hundreds of girls. Thousands of girls were raped in British cities by Muslim gangs because of these optics, the true scale of these crimes in this country would horrify the sensibilities of liberal whites, which is why nothing is being done. No one is put on trial and he bastards get away with it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    What if this is the only way to stop the practice?
    I don't believe it is, and I think there is much we should attempt before we head straight to the illiberal option.
    We've already had 32 years of trying other methods and got precisely nowhere. The point is it's almost always supported by the family, indeed they're the ones responsible for it, so waiting for them to report it is a waste of time.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    OUT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT:

    calum said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Nicola Sturgeon tries to decouple independence from election after polls show Tories taking SNP seats

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/nicola-sturgeon-tries-decouple-independence-election-polls-show/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Chortle.....

    Interestingly the SNP are targeting the election expenses scandal for 2 reasons - it's a Tory Achilles heel and to put paid to any similar efforts to bus in support this time around - thereby keeping the GE2017 campaigns local - with around 2000 members per constituency the SNP are set to do well in the ground war.

    Labour & the Libdems are likely to be less critical of the Tories around the upcoming expenses scandal as they no doubt have a few skeletons in their own closets !!
    You don't think 'MPs Investigated by Police' might be a bit of a double edged sword for the SNP?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/chris-law-becomes-third-snp-mp-to-have-financial-dealings-invest/
    Law was cleared, the other two are gone.
    How many of the dirty thirty are standing?
    How many Tory MPs have been charged?

    And as for Laws:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/questions-to-answer-for-dundee-mp-sg73lg9rd
    "There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by Law".
    Sorry, I missed your answer to 'How many Tory MPs have been charged'?
    We'll know soon, but I doubt it will be 0.
    Agreed, and I doubt they will all be Tory either.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    unlikely, but not impossible.

    I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.

    More upside than downside, IMO.
    What is your view ?

    Going to wait for the locals ?
    need. more. polls.
    Missing the YouGov tracker? Those were the days...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,374
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    What if this is the only way to stop the practice?
    It isn't the only way to stop it.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare
    If you believe that bullshit I've got a bridge for sale.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Labour Brexit:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-brexit-plan-general-election-unveiled-keir-starmer-eu-nationals-environmental-protection-parliament-veto_uk_58fe63a8e4b018a9ce5dd0df?2yq

    That would be Brexit In Only Name if all those policies were followed through.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
    The two Eurosceptics got, what, about 10% between them. Add some of Fillon's and it adds up.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Black_Rook said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

    Sturgeon is such a dreadful liar.

    As soon as the polls close at 10pm on June 8th, every single vote counted for the SNP will be claimed by her to be a vote in favour of a second referendum.

    It is inevitable. In the long run, it is all she and the party really care about.
    A politician telling lies well strike me pink.
    That's the reason we're having an election. May lied.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,192
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Surprisingly close.
    Fillon voters split Macron 41% Le Pen 33%, Melenchon voters Macron 51% Le Pen 19%
    A third of conservatives are closet Fascists. Who'd have thought.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar asked: "Whats the advice here ? Sell Tories at 393.5 ?"

    That's very much the view I'm taking, but as ever DYOR.

    Yeah, the majority is probably going to be more like 350-360.
    Lol Tories on 503 seats ?
    unlikely, but not impossible.

    I bought con seats @ 378 on spreadex for a moderate stake.

    More upside than downside, IMO.
    What is your view ?

    Going to wait for the locals ?
    need. more. polls.
    Did your mother never tell you about the dangers of too many good things?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited April 2017
    kjohnw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

    this is hilarious https://www.facebook.com/studentmoneysaver/videos/1422030677855850/
    The word du jour is The SNP's record in government 'Tories'

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/856582626693566464
    https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/856571592570175489
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.

    Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,979
    HYUFD said:

    IFOP runoff

    Macron 60% Le Pen 40%
    http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_24-04-2017.pdf

    Macron's support stronger and more certain than Le Pen's.

    The closest is among 35-54 age group where his lead is 53-47. Among younger and older voters, Macron is much further ahead.

    The numbers of those who might change their mind doesn't give Le Pen much hope at this time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,983
    Re Vauxhall constituency

    The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.

    The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.

    If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    CarlottaVance said:

    kjohnw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

    this is hilarious https://www.facebook.com/studentmoneysaver/videos/1422030677855850/
    The word du jour is The SNP's record in government 'Tories'

    twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/856582626693566464
    twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/856571592570175489
    I wonder.. how many times did the word "baby" or "eating" feature? :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour supporters on various websites are trying to blame the Wales opinion poll on an influx of English voters into Welsh constituencies in recent years.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    Please read current national policy:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fgm-mandatory-reporting-in-healthcare

    What is wrong with this as an approach?
    There have be zero bloody convictions for an illegal act. The doctors and parents are getting away with it. It is a failure of a policy on all levels. I would rather go in hard, ruffle some feathers and have a clear conscience than this mess which allows these perpetrators to get away with it.
    A policy should be judged on whether it is reducing FGM, rather than the number of prosecutions.

    Of course a bit more funding of child protection services might rather help a bit.
    /

    Is there evidence this approach is working? that would be great

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.

    Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.

    Another step along this worrying road.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    isam said:

    bobajobPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hard Brexit supporters including Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Kate Hoey have been placed on an “attack list” of 20 MPs by a pro-EU group that will attempt to oust them by mobilising its 500,000 supporters.

    Open Britain, the successor organisation to the Remain campaign whose board includes Lord Mandelson, believes it can unseat MPs even where they have large majorities by targeting its considerable resources on them.

    It will also give its backing to 20 of the most Europhile MPs in an attempt to redraw the balance believe Leavers and Remainers in Parliament.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/remoaners-draw-attack-list-20-brexiteer-mps/

    The Daily Telegraph using Remoaners without irony in a headline? This is supposed to be one of the world's great newspapers.

    Tomorrow: Leftard Snowflakes blamed for cold weather (The Times)
    Remove 'leftard' and that's probably true!
    That was my (weak) attempt at a gag - they would be a consequence of it rather than a cause.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,161
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.

    Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.

    Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Francis

    It was the sort of package many Leavers on here advocated until May got all Moggy on our asses.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited April 2017
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why has it been left to UKIP to propose this?

    http://news.sky.com/story/ukip-schoolgirls-should-have-mandatory-medical-fgm-check-every-year-10849237

    It's a horrendous idea, it's just utterly disgraceful.
    Why?
    Targeting ethnic and religious groups for invasive medical exams. Seriously, that is wrong in almost every way imaginable.
    What if there is a problem that is specific to a religious or ethnic group?
    So we make an entire generation of girls from particular groups victims of the state to catch the occasional one who has been the victim of barbaric practices. It's an utter abomination of an idea.
    Let's work in the real world please. How would you stop this abominable practice?
    This proposal fails the smell test. We need to prevent FGM and I don't know how exactly to do this, I'm not an expert on this issue. I just have a big problem with the optics of the approach of subjecting young girls to invasive examinations in this way.
    So your not offending your sensibilities is more important than the safety and health of young girls?

    A very selfish view, but a sadly one common among liberal types who want to ignore the problems rather than confront them head on, come what may.
    I'm probably with ToryJim on this. The objective must be to stop FGM and protect children in those communities. But you don't achieve that by legislation and policing, you do it by changing the culture of the community, which means you need not just their cooperation, but their ownership of the issue.

    Highly recommend the book 'The Power of Positive Deviance', which records, inter alia, how some Westerners engaged local communities in Egypt to rid the practice of FGM in many villages.

    The web site is here: http://www.positivedeviance.org
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Corbyn's speech to the STUC on the news there - hardly stirring stuff. He's a dreadful orator.

    Scottish journos on Twitter fairly irritated that they trailed him around all day in the snow and weren't allowed to ask St. Jez any questions.

    Given Trade Unions are something he is genuinely passionate about, the optics of spending the whole speech head down reading off the page looks terrible.
    I was expecting a bit more tubthumping, but it was robotic. His reading of the Alan Roden issued lines on Scotland were woeful too.

    When can we expect to see him 'winning back Scotland', as all his supporters promised us?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    another_richard said:

    Re Vauxhall constituency

    The value bet is probably the Conservatives at 12/1 with Betfair.

    The Conservatives had 27% in 2015 so might well get more than 30% this year, possibly as much as 35%.

    If Labour does collapse there - and given the demographics they're not likely to go much under 30% - the LibDems would have to get almost all of the new votes to beat the Conservatives.

    I wonder if the Tories will get John Major (Who was Remain) to campaign for the Tory in Vauxhall? Major has a classless appeal to areas like that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    murali_s said:

    Black_Rook said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Local BBC news lead on 2 LDs standing down in Yeovil & Bath.

    Bath as well? Yeovil is probably beyond them but Bath is a key target, and frankly they don't have that many winnable seats to aim for. Not all going to plan for the Yellows, it would seem.
    Maybe making way for a 'big beast'?
    Eh?

    The Lib Dems hardly have anyone with a big public profile. Farron and Clegg already have seats, Cable's having a crack at his old one, and all their living ex-leaders have long since retired to the Lords.

    Are there any others whom more than 1 person in the street in every 10 could identify, if shown a photograph?
This discussion has been closed.

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