France has roughly the same population as the UK, but they've already counted more votes than the total number of ballots cast at the last British general election.
Glad we don't copy them. I want to enjoy a nice long night (and morning) of entertainment on June 8/9.
Yes, I happen to already have had June 9th off work so will enjoy staying up for a nailbiter (because of bets, not because of the outcome!). Problem with the French is that they are too efficient - 8pm exit poll basically announces the winner, and there's nothing else to do now.
I have to say the whole "he's an Independent" thing always seemed very weird. If Ed Balls popped up now in the UK and said I'm standing for the Ed Balls Party, would we think of him as truly independent candidate, or remember him as right hand man of Gordon Brown and Labour Party man?
Macron wasn't say some supposed independent civil servant, he was a member of Hollande's party and appointed in senior positions over the past 5 years.
I have to say the whole "he's an Independent" thing always seemed very weird. If Ed Balls popped up now in the UK and said I'm standing for the Ed Balls Party, would we think of him as truly independent candidate, or remember him as right hand man of Gordon Brown and Labour Party man?
Macron wasn't say some supposed independent civil servant, he was a member of Hollande's party and appointed in senior positions over the past 5 years.
Neverthtless the agenda Macron is being elected upon is significantly different from Hollande's original platform.
Jeremy Corbyn presents a “clear and present danger” to the Union, the Tories warned today as the Labour leader and Nicola Sturgeon prepare to speak at the same trade union event in Scotland.
As I see it, most Scots made up their minds on indy during indyref1. Nothing will now change those opinions, not even Brexit. And there is a small but stubborn majority for the Union, which barely budges over time.
Of course decrepit unionists will die, and young ardent Nats will breed - and yet we all know what age does to political opinions...
Meanwhile, TMay is simply going to say No to a new vote, until Brexit and the transition is complete in the early 2020s (which is why the Nats loathe the idea of this General Election, where they are likely to suffer modest reversals, damaging their indy-now narrative).
That means the Nats will have to win ANOTHER Holyrood majority (or close to it) before they can call indyref2.
That's hard. I reckon we've seen Peak SNP. Ergo, the Union is saved.
For now.
WTF are people still using pie charts and donut charts. Even worse, in this instance, a partial donut. It is so well documented that people cannot interpret angles with accuracy and hence do not process the data in these kinds of graphics.
FFS, use bar charts.
PS For clarity, this diatribe addressed to BMG Research.
Could be almost bang on if final votes to come are good for Macron.
Also with the prediction of 19.5% for the other two candidates. Currently on 19.73% and 19.48%.
With a preferential voting system, Hamon's votes might have taken Melenchon ahead of Fillon and possibly Le Pen as well.
Dupont Aignan got almost as many votes as Hamon and they would have gone to Fillon and Le Pen
True. Will most of his votes go to Macron now?
I think Dupont Aignan's votes are the most likely to go Le Pen in the runoff of the eliminated candidates, then Fillon's, then Melenchon's. Almost all of Hamon's will go to Macron. Goodnight
As I see it, most Scots made up their minds on indy during indyref1. Nothing will now change those opinions, not even Brexit. And there is a small but stubborn majority for the Union, which barely budges over time.
Of course decrepit unionists will die, and young ardent Nats will breed - and yet we all know what age does to political opinions...
Meanwhile, TMay is simply going to say No to a new vote, until Brexit and the transition is complete in the early 2020s (which is why the Nats loathe the idea of this General Election, where they are likely to suffer modest reversals, damaging their indy-now narrative).
That means the Nats will have to win ANOTHER Holyrood majority (or close to it) before they can call indyref2.
That's hard. I reckon we've seen Peak SNP. Ergo, the Union is saved.
For now.
WTF are people still using pie charts and donut charts. Even worse, in this instance, a partial donut. It is so well documented that people cannot interpret angles with accuracy and hence do not process the data in these kinds of graphics.
FFS, use bar charts.
PS For clarity, this diatribe addressed to BMG Research.
It looks like the Scottish Parliament seating plan... makes me feel sick.
Macron now 2.49% ahead, 875,000 vote lead, better than exit poll.
Though of the 3 departements still to fully report Le Pen is ahead in 2, Bouches and Var with 29% and 30% respectively and Macron ahead in Val d'Oise on 25%
Macron now 2.49% ahead, 875,000 vote lead, better than exit poll.
Though of the 3 departements still to fully report Le Pen is ahead in 2, Bouches and Var with 29% and 30% respectively and Macron ahead in Val d'Oise on 25%
Bouches de Rhône is only waiting for Marseilles which is a bit of a mixed bag but probably Macron based on the arrondissements that have declared. Var is waiting on Toulon which as a port I'd wager less likely to go to Le Pen.
Macron now 2.49% ahead, 875,000 vote lead, better than exit poll.
Though of the 3 departements still to fully report Le Pen is ahead in 2, Bouches and Var with 29% and 30% respectively and Macron ahead in Val d'Oise on 25%
Bouches de Rhône is only waiting for Marseilles which is a bit of a mixed bag but probably Macron based on the arrondissements that have declared. Var is waiting on Toulon which as a port I'd wager less likely to go to Le Pen.
Well I was wrong on that, Le Pen won Toulon at around 27%
Comments
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2015
Macron wasn't say some supposed independent civil servant, he was a member of Hollande's party and appointed in senior positions over the past 5 years.
Hey, it's about time the world left of centre had some reasonably cheering news.
Posted without comment.......
I don't think the outre-mer is happy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/jeremy-corbyn-danger-union-nicola-sturgeon-speak-scottish-conference/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_departmental_elections,_2015
91% counted - Macron 23.51%, Le Pen 22.06%
Exit poll was Macron 23.7%, Le Pen 21.7%
Could be almost bang on if final votes to come are good for Macron.
With a preferential voting system, Hamon's votes might have taken Melenchon ahead of Fillon and possibly Le Pen as well.
FFS, use bar charts.
PS For clarity, this diatribe addressed to BMG Research.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
but anyway
Macron 28.81%
Fillon 21.88%
Melenchon 16.18%
Hamon 8.42%
Le Pen 4.13%
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/011/075/index.html
Paris: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/011/075/index.html
Marseilles: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/093/013/013M.html
MACRON 34.83
FILLON 26.45
MÉLENCHON 19.56
HAMON 10.18
LE PEN 4.99
Data from the British Election Study suggest Conservatives are piling up votes in Labour-held seats
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/warning-signs-for-labour-50b6cd1501d8