politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the state of the parties and the race ahead with Conor Pope of Progress and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinksi. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here.
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No - and FIRST!0
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Damn, my post disappeared - again! I sense conspiracy to provent me from getting firsts0
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Third - like Labour on a good day0
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Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?
QTWTAIN0 -
Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
You can definitely over-promise in an election campaign to the point where the voters just stop listening. There is a reason Blair used pledge cards with just 5 policies on - clear cut-through messaging.0
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Bombs. Very big bombs.Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
Policies are so overrated. I am increasingly convinced that it is a general assessment of leadership and competence that influences the majority of voters. This is why leadership performance is such a good indicator of electoral results. And why Labour have such obvious problems.0
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Killer remark in the commentsFloater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
"Jeremy always worried about civilian casualties but has no problem with IRA deliberately targeting civilians by putting bombs in litter bins. Seems he has no problem with others killing us just us killing others."0 -
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:0 -
I want a radical Labour policy platform.
I also want a party leader who looks like a PM in waiting.
I don't want a shambolic and incoherent foreign and defence policy.0 -
QTWTAIN – Corbyn has had 35 years as an MP to come up with the policies he’d implement if he were to become PM, instead he’s spent his time on protest rallies and student politics.0
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I agree with SNP and Corbyn over Nuclear Weapons the money would be better spent elsewhere.I can not see any circumstance when we would use them. However unlike the SNP Corbyn will never have to worry about it.0
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Please sir, can we at least have small arms and maybe a row boat or 2??SandyRentool said:I want a radical Labour policy platform.
I also want a party leader who looks like a PM in waiting.
I don't want a shambolic and incoherent foreign and defence policy.
Jeremy says we cant :-(0 -
My Lib Dem seat bets are onBlack_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
Hornsey(3-1), Bath(7-4 & 5-4), Chippenham (25-1), Cheltenham (9-1), Bermondsey (Evens). All limited to tuppence ha'penny. I've been a buyer of lower band LD seats on the spreads.0 -
I think that's true to a very large extent, which is why May has the latitude to get away with throwing the tax lock - possibly even the pension triple lock - in the dustbin, and have her ministers going around the studios touting Miliband-like policies on energy price caps that Tories would previously have rubbished. She has wriggle room on policy because so many people have a positive view of her.DavidL said:Policies are so overrated. I am increasingly convinced that it is a general assessment of leadership and competence that influences the majority of voters. This is why leadership performance is such a good indicator of electoral results. And why Labour have such obvious problems.
Of course, some of the stuff that Corbyn comes out with would be electoral kryptonite, regardless of who said it. But the fact that it comes from him merely makes it even more unpopular, and reinforces his negative image with the bulk of voters.0 -
He didn't mention chemical or biological weapons either.MTimT said:
Bombs. Very big bombs.Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
Joking apart, as a potential means of delivering all manner of unpleasant things, the use of drones needs to be seriously constrained and controlled. Quite how is easier said than done.0
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French turnout rate at 5pm French time: 69.42%. In 2012 it was 70.59%.0
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We definitely need to stop Amazon deliveries by drone.peter_from_putney said:Joking apart, as a potential means of delivering all manner of unpleasant things, the use of drones needs to be seriously constrained and controlled. Quite how is easier said than done.
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Hornsey & Wood Green, only 3-1: that's a bit short!Pulpstar said:
My Lib Dem seat bets are onBlack_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
Hornsey(3-1), Bath(7-4 & 5-4), Chippenham (25-1), Cheltenham (9-1), Bermondsey (Evens). All limited to tuppence ha'penny. I've been a buyer of lower band LD seats on the spreads.
Would regard both that and Chippenham as "brave" choices. The Lib Dems are still only a little over 10% in the polls, and the EU referendum result isn't the be all and end all in making these seat predictions. Both of those need larger swings than Oxford West & Abingdon, which would be my long-shot selection for the Lib Dems if asked.0 -
Fond memories of Paddy "I'll eat my hat" Pantsdown I suspect.Black_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:0 -
No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.0
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Policies are a product. Politics is not just about developing a product (policies) but selling them.
Blair was a brilliant salesman, as was the team around him. He developed a product that appealed: on the major negative - the economy - he was initially continuity Conservative. In areas he could be more bold, he was.
Can anyone honestly say they would buy anything from Corbyn? If you went to a car showroom and was greeted with him you'd just turn around and leave. If you went to buy a house and he was showing you around you'd look in another city.
The problem is I cannot see anyone in Labour who you'd buy a pint of milk from, yet alone anything that mattered.0 -
FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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Could be more than 2 if they lose one or two.MarqueeMark said:
It looks like something dramatic is going to have to happen to get the LibDems much into double figures of MPs. I wonder which their two seats would be up on 2015?Black_Rook said:Lat
On current polling, chances of sneaking in some wins against the Tories would be limited, and they needed big swings in many places anyway, so you're looking at places like Cambridge against LDs and East Dunbartonshire or another Scottish seat against SNP.
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Despite using Easter to announce several policies, Labour is making little effort to pretend it knows what it would do with power. The party’s website still invites visitors to “help shape our next manifesto” and Corbyn semi-loyalist Dawn Butler suggested on Newsnight there might have to be a “rolling manifesto” while policies are developed.
Yeah, that's pretty silly. The big ideas at least should be pretty clear at all times.
Corbyn ran for the leadership with the promise of a “radical economic strategy” yet the recent announcements have largely been repeats of earlier Labour policies.
I am waiting for the first reports of far lefters criticising him for being too right wing or moderate. That's more interesting than our unceasing 'Crobyn is Crap' talk.
You could argue that Labour’s recent policies go further than previous ones. But no-one can seriously claim they would revolutionise the economy. As such, they seem designed for the same voters – progressive but not radical – that the 2015 manifesto aimed to win over.
So Labour might find support for a mix of tangible incremental policies, and radical policies aimed at tackling a well-known problem. With 49% saying they would at least consider Labour, these policies appear to win the strong support of around a quarter of the population – suggesting there is still a 25% strategy open to Labour.
Definitely. They still creep up to 25-26, and down no more than 23-24, 25 is very much on, maybe a bit more. I just don't know that policy plays much of a part. Labour have some popular ones, and others that might be popular, but the proposer is not credible.
Want to. To date, they have not.Prodicus said:
The big puzzle is, how do Lab rid themselves of such a blind, clueless, messianic obsessive?SeanT said:Wat7353217
I like the comment in the podcast that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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On Topic
No.
There is no way out for Labour . Labour is dying & the only choice is a fast, consensual death with some dignity or a long, humiliating & painful one.0 -
Which is better?SandyRentool said:I want a radical Labour policy platform.
I also want a party leader who looks like a PM in waiting.
There's only one way to find out ...
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Obviously referring to attempts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Trade_Treaty to limit the flow of small arms (which are responsible for most conflict deaths in the world), which the UK ratified in 2014. There are also international agreements to try and limit land mines and nuclear weapons, so what he is saying seems fairly clear (although could be phrased better), he wants an international agreement limiting the use of drones. Which to be fair, seems entirely reasonable, so not sure why it deserves "Dear god".Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
Yes indeed. Corbyn had some not terrible polling recently insofar as a popular policy didn't drop too much when his name was attached, but people won't think those policies are worth it if it means getting him.DavidL said:Policies are so overrated. I am increasingly convinced that it is a general assessment of leadership and competence that influences the majority of voters. This is why leadership performance is such a good indicator of electoral results. And why Labour have such obvious problems.
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Maybe his policy could be to bring back a shadow cabinet member for mental health?SimonStClare said:QTWTAIN – Corbyn has had 35 years as an MP to come up with the policies he’d implement if he were to become PM, instead he’s spent his time on protest rallies and student politics.
It's largely forgotten now, but the picture of Corbyn holding a sign protesting against himself at the Labour Conference really said it all for me. Oddly, there is an element of truth in his defenders' point that he isn't that left wing... a lot of it is badly rehashed and reheated Miliband policies, with a dash of unfunded and ill-thought through ideas which are more left wing but nothing really fleshed out.
I think Leo has a point that a radical programme may arrest the decline (although it couldn't win an election). If Labour can turn the debate onto whether to nationalise such-and-such, or implement a minimum income, it would take a lot of flak but it would possibly be better than the current position of allowing the Tories to dictate the terms of the debate and make it about "strong and stable" Government (a vacuous phrase and daft when you consider how much stability there was under the Coalition compared with the past two tumultuous years... but undoubtedly an effective way of framing it).0 -
Medium sized arms. You know, something larger than rifle, but smaller a jeep. Something cheap, reliable, and useless.Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
Sure the leading figures in Labour are crap, but who is a person to vote for if they are anti-Tory? A party that's even further to the right? A party that spent five years in a coalition with them?JosiasJessop said:Policies are a product. Politics is not just about developing a product (policies) but selling them.
Blair was a brilliant salesman, as was the team around him. He developed a product that appealed: on the major negative - the economy - he was initially continuity Conservative. In areas he could be more bold, he was.
Can anyone honestly say they would buy anything from Corbyn? If you went to a car showroom and was greeted with him you'd just turn around and leave. If you went to buy a house and he was showing you around you'd look in another city.
The problem is I cannot see anyone in Labour who you'd buy a pint of milk from, yet alone anything that mattered.
I wouldn't buy a car from May or Mophead either.0 -
There are very few West country seats* which look winnable for the LibDems unless they get to 16-18% in the polls.Black_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
* Except possibly Bristol West, which is a three way marginal.0 -
I read his words in there everyday meaning - knowing Corbyn and his pathetic stop the war positionskamski said:
Obviously referring to attempts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Trade_Treaty to limit the flow of small arms (which are responsible for most conflict deaths in the world), which the UK ratified in 2014. There are also international agreements to try and limit land mines and nuclear weapons, so what he is saying seems fairly clear (although could be phrased better), he wants an international agreement limiting the use of drones. Which to be fair, seems entirely reasonable, so not sure why it deserves "Dear god".Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
If you think he is a credible leader more fool you.0 -
Not sure of the assumption the LDs truly are a credible threat to the Tories in some areas as per podcast. Not if the polls are close to correct.0
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Well I've laid 60+ seats at 8-1. If the Lib Dems get more than 60 seats it is difficult to see Chippenham losing........ and yet I'm on at 25-1 ?Black_Rook said:
Hornsey & Wood Green, only 3-1: that's a bit short!Pulpstar said:
My Lib Dem seat bets are onBlack_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
Hornsey(3-1), Bath(7-4 & 5-4), Chippenham (25-1), Cheltenham (9-1), Bermondsey (Evens). All limited to tuppence ha'penny. I've been a buyer of lower band LD seats on the spreads.
Would regard both that and Chippenham as "brave" choices. The Lib Dems are still only a little over 10% in the polls, and the EU referendum result isn't the be all and end all in making these seat predictions. Both of those need larger swings than Oxford West & Abingdon, which would be my long-shot selection for the Lib Dems if asked.0 -
Getting rid of Corbyn is a necessary, but not sufficient, solution to Labour's problems. It's step 1, you can't work on any of Labour's myriad of other problems till he's gone.Pulpstar said:No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
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Corbyn's favourite bladed weapon is probably a dirk.rcs1000 said:
Medium sized arms. You know, something larger than rifle, but smaller a jeep..Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
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In context, you are right. Something has to be done about regulating the use of drones. This touches on warfare, but also terrorism and organized crime. I have agitated for as much within policy-making circles for at least the last 5 years.kamski said:
Obviously referring to attempts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Trade_Treaty to limit the flow of small arms (which are responsible for most conflict deaths in the world), which the UK ratified in 2014. There are also international agreements to try and limit land mines and nuclear weapons, so what he is saying seems fairly clear (although could be phrased better), he wants an international agreement limiting the use of drones. Which to be fair, seems entirely reasonable, so not sure why it deserves "Dear god".Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
But is this really an issue that is at the forefront of the British electorate's concerns? Is this what you want to lead with in your campaign?
That, rather than the content, is worth a 'Dear God' in my mind.0 -
Yes - too many people seem to still be acting as though because getting rid of him does not solve the whole problem, it is hardly worth bothering about. No no, it is, because it enables some recovery to begin.Paristonda said:
Getting rid of Corbyn is a necessary, but not sufficient, solution to Labour's problems. It's step 1, you can't work on any of Labour's myriad of other problems till he's gone.Pulpstar said:No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
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Well the one thing that simply is the case is that the seat band markets and individual seats are ridiculously divergent.rcs1000 said:
There are very few West country seats* which look winnable for the LibDems unless they get to 16-18% in the polls.Black_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
* Except possibly Bristol West, which is a three way marginal.
How can Bermondsey and Bath be both roughly evens when the o/u line is near 30 ?????????????????????????0 -
Could you, errr, dig that photo out please?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Maybe his policy could be to bring back a shadow cabinet member for mental health?SimonStClare said:QTWTAIN – Corbyn has had 35 years as an MP to come up with the policies he’d implement if he were to become PM, instead he’s spent his time on protest rallies and student politics.
It's largely forgotten now, but the picture of Corbyn holding a sign protesting against himself at the Labour Conference really said it all for me. Oddly, there is an element of truth in his defenders' point that he isn't that left wing... a lot of it is badly rehashed and reheated Miliband policies, with a dash of unfunded and ill-thought through ideas which are more left wing but nothing really fleshed out.
I think Leo has a point that a radical programme may arrest the decline (although it couldn't win an election). If Labour can turn the debate onto whether to nationalise such-and-such, or implement a minimum income, it would take a lot of flak but it would possibly be better than the current position of allowing the Tories to dictate the terms of the debate and make it about "strong and stable" Government (a vacuous phrase and daft when you consider how much stability there was under the Coalition compared with the past two tumultuous years... but undoubtedly an effective way of framing it).0 -
Well, always good to get an alternate view. His words are easily misinterpreted.kamski said:
Obviously referring to attempts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Trade_Treaty to limit the flow of small arms (which are responsible for most conflict deaths in the world), which the UK ratified in 2014. There are also international agreements to try and limit land mines and nuclear weapons, so what he is saying seems fairly clear (although could be phrased better), he wants an international agreement limiting the use of drones. Which to be fair, seems entirely reasonable, so not sure why it deserves "Dear god".Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
H&WG is one of the three most pro-Remain constituencies in the country, which benefits the LDs. It's also sufficiently middle class that Corbyn frightens plenty of Labour voters. But there's a pretty huge gap between the Labour and the LibDem vote shares. If we assume the Labour Party will be down 7%, and the LibDems up 5% (which seems a reasonable assumption given current polling), then they will be short by about 3,000 votes.Black_Rook said:
Hornsey & Wood Green, only 3-1: that's a bit short!Pulpstar said:
My Lib Dem seat bets are onBlack_Rook said:
FPT: Yeovil has a 5,000 Con majority, 7,500 available Ukip voters, and South Somerset broke 57% for Leave. In theory, Lib Dem target 15. In practice, not one of their better chances.MarqueeMark said:
Hornsey(3-1), Bath(7-4 & 5-4), Chippenham (25-1), Cheltenham (9-1), Bermondsey (Evens). All limited to tuppence ha'penny. I've been a buyer of lower band LD seats on the spreads.
Would regard both that and Chippenham as "brave" choices. The Lib Dems are still only a little over 10% in the polls, and the EU referendum result isn't the be all and end all in making these seat predictions. Both of those need larger swings than Oxford West & Abingdon, which would be my long-shot selection for the Lib Dems if asked.
5-1 would tempt me to bet. 3-1 would not.0 -
I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.0
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Corbyn himself? Is he reliably useless enough to count as reliable?rcs1000 said:
Medium sized arms. You know, something larger than rifle, but smaller a jeep. Something cheap, reliable, and useless.Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.Pulpstar said:No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.-1 -
Not sure why you think I think he's a credible leader, or why you think it's ok to call strangers on the internet fools.Floater said:
I read his words in there everyday meaning - knowing Corbyn and his pathetic stop the war positionskamski said:
Obviously referring to attempts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_Trade_Treaty to limit the flow of small arms (which are responsible for most conflict deaths in the world), which the UK ratified in 2014. There are also international agreements to try and limit land mines and nuclear weapons, so what he is saying seems fairly clear (although could be phrased better), he wants an international agreement limiting the use of drones. Which to be fair, seems entirely reasonable, so not sure why it deserves "Dear god".Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
If you think he is a credible leader more fool you.
To me, in a phrase that compares three kinds of weapons that have international agreements (landmines, nuclear weapons and small arms), with one that does not (drones) the meaning is reasonably clear.0 -
Broadcast the manifestos of the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninst), Left Unity and Socialist Workers' Party at the enemy.JosiasJessop said:
He didn't mention chemical or biological weapons either.MTimT said:
Bombs. Very big bombs.Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
I'm sure the ones for people like the BNP are just as bad, but probably not as dull or convoluted. Did you know Trotskyism is just a tool of the capitalists.0 -
Think podcast is right there is some churn, but most of the Lab drop is those staying home.0
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Anywhere close to 18.5 would be a great result, so you can wish a good comeback and that you make your money.Paristonda said:I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.
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Sounds like we really could be in for a repeat - if Con go in with polls in the later 40s, I'd bet small amounts it will be lower 40s.AndyJS said:FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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Yes true, 16 or so is great and I really don't see them getting higher. But some posters and the media etc are getting carried away on ideas of 30+ for LDs. IF that was to happen, because Labour had a total wipeout for example, I would simultaneously be happy and sad about it!kle4 said:
Anywhere close to 18.5 would be a great result, so you can wish a good comeback and that you make your money.Paristonda said:I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.
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With the level of internal division, I don't know that the expression 'left hand doesn't know what the right is doing' is apt re Labour. More like fingers on the same hand not knowing what they are doing, plus one of the fingers is just a bloody stump.0
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Reports via Twitter (apologies: Tweet won't display on here) that voter turnout in French presidential election as of 5pm is 10pts down on 2012. Not sure if this is correct, but that's what I'm seeing reported.
From my limited knowledge, I would assume that a reduction in turnout favours Fillon and Le Pen. Don't they have the highest poll ratings in terms of the percentage of their supporters who claim to be certain to vote?0 -
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????0 -
Mr. kle4, indeed. Labour's infighting is broadly comparable to the dalek civil war.0
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As so often lately with you though - the wish is father to the thought. It's wise that you bet small.kle4 said:
Sounds like we really could be in for a repeat - if Con go in with polls in the later 40s, I'd bet small amounts it will be lower 40s.AndyJS said:FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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A PB podcast suggests people may be getting carried away re LD forecasts!0
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May has massive approval ratings, there isn't much any opposition leader can do about that. BUT you ought to be providing an alternative. The omens and landscape were tough for Ed Miliband with regards to Scotland in particular but vs the Conservatives his results were more or less a wash, a sort of WIlliam Hague vs Blair 2001 scenario (reversed).felix said:
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.Pulpstar said:No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
Labour ought to have their Howard by now - pushing forward, perhaps a few council gains in the May elections.
Instead Corbyn is turning the seat I'm in, which has been Labour forever into a relatively safe seat - for the Tories !0 -
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)0
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The French Presidential election system really is rubbish, isn't it?0
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If my wishes were entirely leading my thoughts, I'd be thinking the LDs would get 30+ seats and I'd believe the Tories will get 6+ in Scotland. Those are thinks I want to happen.felix said:
As so often lately with you though - the wish is father to the thought. It's wise that you bet small.kle4 said:
Sounds like we really could be in for a repeat - if Con go in with polls in the later 40s, I'd bet small amounts it will be lower 40s.AndyJS said:FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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Alpes-de-Haute-Provence is Le Pen's best region so if turnout there is highest at the moment that will boost her campaign, Paris is her worst region so she will also be pleased turnout is below average thereCyan said:Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
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I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.0
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From YouGov:
And thinking about recent elections and referendums in Britain, do you think there have been...
England : Scotland
Too Many: 34 : 66
Not Enough: 9 : 5
About Right: 39 : 190 -
On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/8558488344544829450 -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1997-2001kle4 said:
Sounds like we really could be in for a repeat - if Con go in with polls in the later 40s, I'd bet small amounts it will be lower 40s.AndyJS said:FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
Final polls of ICM and YouGov were 43-332 and 43-33 respectively.0 -
I think you may just hit the sweet spot, with say 17-18 Lib Dem MPs with at least 2 extra in Scotland and one extra in Wales, and a significantly increased vote share, lots more second places and lots more kept deposits, plus and its a big plus, lots of new members joining during the campaign, and lots of members becoming activists and campaigning for the first time.Paristonda said:I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.
I think the Lib Dems may make big progress this time, possibly lining up to replace Labour in the next decade) but it will be hidden because of the small number of extra MPs they get form it.0 -
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.glw said:
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.0 -
Those regions are all North/South areas warmer to Le Pen, so could end up good for her (doubt the higher turnout there is driven by anti Le Pen voters in R1).Cyan said:Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
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Which one in Wales?BigRich said:
I think you may just hit the sweet spot, with say 17-18 Lib Dem MPs with at least 2 extra in Scotland and one extra in Wales.Paristonda said:I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.
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Cameroons......
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 130 -
I see Emmanuel Macron has shortened on Betfair during the course of the day. He was last traded at 1.63.0
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Farage is Trump's gopher?0
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Private surveillance of a back garden where the young girls are sunbathing ...... Yes, you're right.peter_from_putney said:Joking apart, as a potential means of delivering all manner of unpleasant things, the use of drones needs to be seriously constrained and controlled. Quite how is easier said than done.
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I think the Tories will be lucky to get 5 in Scotland - more polling like the Panelbase could change that however. The Tories would have to fall back a lot for the LDs to get 30. for me a 50+ May majority would do nicely - it might even be mo0dest enough to give JC the time he needs to finish off the Labour party for goodkle4 said:
If my wishes were entirely leading my thoughts, I'd be thinking the LDs would get 30+ seats and I'd believe the Tories will get 6+ in Scotland. Those are thinks I want to happen.felix said:
As so often lately with you though - the wish is father to the thought. It's wise that you bet small.kle4 said:
Sounds like we really could be in for a repeat - if Con go in with polls in the later 40s, I'd bet small amounts it will be lower 40s.AndyJS said:FPT:
That's precisely what happened in 2001. A lot of the polls had numbers like Lab 49 Con 30 and the result was Lab 42 Con 33. Hardly anyone noticed because the Lab maj was so big.kle4 said:I like the comment that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
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Despite the tiny straws in the wind (turnout areas and overseas votes) seeming to be against him, strong move to Macron on Betfair. Now 1.6. Been floating just below 1.8 since opinion polls stopped.0
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Would she say she has changed direction or not though?CarlottaVance said:Cameroons......
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
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I think this is roughly why attempts to say "ah but in 2015 ... " are lame ducks.CarlottaVance said:Cameroons......
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 130 -
A very eye-catching ultra bright red and yellow banner adorning this afternoon's thread. In the interests of balance, I wonder how long it will be before we're treated to the Tories' green fuzzy tree, or is it a union flag tree nowadays?0
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But once Brexit has happened, what will be their selling point? Being the "party of remain" is dubious enough at the moment (but is attractive only because of quite how low they've fallen) but once we've left?BigRich said:
I think you may just hit the sweet spot, with say 17-18 Lib Dem MPs with at least 2 extra in Scotland and one extra in Wales, and a significantly increased vote share, lots more second places and lots more kept deposits, plus and its a big plus, lots of new members joining during the campaign, and lots of members becoming activists and campaigning for the first time.Paristonda said:I'm torn over the Lib Dems. On the one hand I want them to do well and have a good comeback because I am for the most part a supporter. On the other, I stand to make decent money if they finish under 18.5 seats, so am kind of hoping my gut instinct is correct, and they will not progress much.
I think the Lib Dems may make big progress this time, possibly lining up to replace Labour in the next decade) but it will be hidden because of the small number of extra MPs they get form it.0 -
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)Cyan said:Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
Macron has underperformed.0 -
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.0 -
QTWTAIN.Morris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/855848834454482945
1. Corbyn has a truly gigantic majority. If he goes, English Labour is going the way of Scottish Labour. I don't buy it.
2. Looking down the thread underneath that post, it turns out that a Green is standing as well.
3. Corbyn faces a split opposition, and the LD candidate was only 4th last time. Greens third, and Tories second.
Corbyn is completely safe.0 -
A bit silly as there will clearly be a Tory candidate as well. Corbyn will hold his seat.Morris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/8558488344544829450 -
Tories May 8 I readCommanderShepard said:When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'?
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Islington South looks a much better LD long shot.Black_Rook said:
QTWTAIN.Morris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/855848834454482945
1. Corbyn has a truly gigantic majority. If he goes, English Labour is going the way of Scottish Labour. I don't buy it.
2. Looking down the thread underneath that post, it turns out that a Green is standing as well.
3. Corbyn faces a split opposition, and the LD candidate was only 4th last time. Greens third, and Tories second.
Corbyn is completely safe.
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That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...AlastairMeeks said:I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
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Nice username.CommanderShepard said:When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/795210/Prime-Mininster-theresa-May-scrapping-HS2-Tory-manifesto0 -
Well, where would you choose ?Black_Rook said:
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...AlastairMeeks said:I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
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161 seat projection now, and the campaign has barely even started. I am betting on Labour < 150 seats.Black_Rook said:
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.glw said:
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?Floater said:Dear god
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?0 -
In terms of visual impact Yellow & Red or Yellow & Black are your strongest options - but can be difficult to look at for any length of time.peter_from_putney said:A very eye-catching ultra bright red and yellow banner adorning this afternoon's thread. In the interests of balance, I wonder how long it will be before we're treated to the Tories' green fuzzy tree, or is it a union flag tree nowadays?
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Jimmy Wales is the Ayn-Randroid Wikipedia guy. What's his interest?Morris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/8558488344544829450 -
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.Cyan said:
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)Cyan said:Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
Macron has underperformed.
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On topic, no. This is going to be an election about character and there is only going to be one winner. Labour should be replacing Jeremy Corbyn. With him at the helm, the only question is how low Labour can go and I suspect the answer is very low indeed.0
