Any Tory "victory" in Scotland can only be relative, and when the dust settles, it will be clear that the snp have far more seats than the Tories in Scotland and that delaying a referendum is merely delaying the end on the Union.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
One of the amazing thing about GR is how quickly it was accepted by the physics community. Eddington is another hero of mine for championing Einstein's work at a time when Anglo-German relations were a bit strained.
Of course, “the physics community” at the time was tiny.
In the famous Solvay conference picture of 1911, there are about 25 physicists, with Einstein centre stage. He only had to convince them.
I quite like Eddington, but there is no denying that Eddington’s treatment of Chandrasekhar clearly had the whiff of racism and superiority about it.
A more remarkable person from the same epoch was G.H. Hardy, whose championing of Ramanujan (an impoverished Indian untouchable) on the basis of what looked like some cranky letters was truly extraordinary. Only Hardy would have done this.
In fact, Ramaujan had sent cranky letters to three other prominent British mathematicians, but they did nothing.
For those interested, there was a rather nice little film from last year about this, called The Man Who Knew Infinity.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
Bank holidays are a relic from the late 19th century, before the days of annual leave entitlements. If I were dictator (and the country could do a lot worse) I'd abolish them and add the number of days to annual leave entitlements. Then people could take their holiday when they chose, not when the government thinks they should.
And I'd shoot anybody who said that this increased freedom was a bad idea.
With the exception of Christmas, boxing day and new year I've never worked for a company that doesn't do that.
In the NHS, like other ‘public organisations’ we used to have the Friday before such holidays as August Bank Holiday and Whitsun as holidays. It was a damn’ nuisance to patient care and around 1995, where I worked anyway, we were offered the choice of doing what Mr M suggested, with those who’d been in post then for more than 5 years getting two. Massive vote in favour.
TSE is right as always and in line with the polling from my favourites Survation ! There is no possibility of us winning by 25%, but 10% and 60 maj remains possible.
I cannot even start to imagine where labour will be if Corbyn performs as badly as he did on Marr today.
Some suggested sub 20% - I have been treating the polls with caution but I am really coming to the conclusion that this election is going to be very like Blair in 1997
TSE. I think we are in danger of forgetting the potential effect of the local elections in twelve days time. These, if they go to form, will allow the Tories to claim the death of the kippers and the Lib Dem to talk about real votes in real ballot boxes. Could this be the final nail in Labour's coffin?
To more important things. Fans of the annual Spurs choke will be pleased to know that there are some superb odds to take advantage of from the bookies this year. My SkyBet selection: * £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me) * £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1 * £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
I cannot even start to imagine where labour will be if Corbyn performs as badly as he did on Marr today.
Some suggested sub 20% - I have been treating the polls with caution but I am really coming to the conclusion that this election is going to be very like Blair in 1997
I had a premonition the other day that Labour would poll 19 point something. Now, I don't exactly have a track record on premonitions, but it was very vivid....
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
One of the amazing thing about GR is how quickly it was accepted by the physics community. Eddington is another hero of mine for championing Einstein's work at a time when Anglo-German relations were a bit strained.
Of course, “the physics community” at the time was tiny.
In the famous Solvay conference picture of 1911, there are about 25 physicists, with Einstein centre stage. He only had to convince them.
I quite like Eddington, but there is no denying that Eddington’s treatment of Chandrasekhar clearly had the whiff of racism and superiority about it.
A more remarkable person from the same epoch was G.H. Hardy, whose championing of Ramanujan (an impoverished Indian untouchable) on the basis of what looked like some cranky letters was truly extraordinary. Only Hardy would have done this.
In fact, Ramaujan had sent cranky letters to three other prominent British mathematicians, but they did nothing.
I love reading wiki pages on mathematicians. I cannot get more than a sentence in before I have no idea what it means.
Morris Dancer I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
To more important things. Fans of the annual Spurs choke will be pleased to know that there are some superb odds to take advantage of from the bookies this year. My SkyBet selection: * £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me) * £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1 * £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
Some awesome odds there, given the recent history. Good luck!
Are we really less than a week into this? Christ, I dont think I can last it.
Labour, throw in the towel now offering a 60 seat majority, save us some time.
TM would take 50 !
I figured they'd sweeten the pot a bit since, not entirely without cause, some Tories are dreaming of 100+ now.
The current midpoint in the Sporting Index spreads would make a Conservative majority of 112. The dream seems widely shared.
Oh it is, and it might be right. But there's a long way to go, and if it were possible to offer a maj of 60 at the start, I'm sure May would have taken it.
I cannot even start to imagine where labour will be if Corbyn performs as badly as he did on Marr today.
Some suggested sub 20% - I have been treating the polls with caution but I am really coming to the conclusion that this election is going to be very like Blair in 1997
Potentially worse, Major was a decent man Corbyn fundamentally isn't.
@IainDale: This is the most self-harming interview Corbyn has done. First role of a PM is to defend the realm. The headlines out of this will be awful.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
i do wonder how much we will hear from the more sensible labour MPs like cooper. Do they really want to be seen on the tellybox and defending corbyns crack head policies and claiming the system is rigged against them?
Actually yes, their key electorate is Labour members and Labour members will appreciate a feisty defence of Labour policies. The voters will understand if they pivot to non-crackhead policies after they lose the election.
The Chinese were wrong about interesting times. Yes I am partisan but I'm also a 40-year old student of politics who has been entertained by it since 1992. And although my lot are Alderaan you do have to laugh about how we got here. And how Jezbollah is helping Tarkin better target said Death Star so that the laser remains square on Diane Abbott at all times.
TSE makes some interesting points and I do think there are a lot of variables in this particular negotiation with the electorate:
1. Tory arrogance not complacency. They simply think the election and the country are theirs by rights. Combine that with points 6-9 and its not a guaranteed shoo-in. I still remember 2010 where despite all that Broon did to screw it up the Tories still managed to deliver a result that had us asking "is that it?"
2 and 3. Labour will not win this election. Corbyn will never get his hands on the nuclear button (although he did once get his hands on Diane Abbott's "nuclear button") so that really helps the "I don't like Corbyn" voters. So what - he will be gone very soon. But your life of struggle and the Tories kicking you and laughing will remain. So the more Labour MPs we get the better our next leader can defend you. "Don't give MayBe a blank cheque" is a powerful argument
4. Its the economy stupid. And the divide between the prospering and the struggling is a chasm that many of us in the prosperous half manage to ignore, or blame those stuck in the other half for. Never mind people blaming migrants as the issue, its the prosperous blaming the poor for poverty thats the real issue that grates with people on the doorstep. Its not a sympathy shag its desperation prostituting
5. We intend to go to town on St Theresa. She is the biggest political liar of this generation - forget Clegg and Tuition Frees MayBe lied about Brexit and lied about an election and lied about her budget and changes her mind every time the wind changes direction. And she says this election is one of trust - yes she will win but do you trust her enough to give her the power to do anything she wants to do?
The Tories will win. They expect it. Labour HQ are preparing a Maginot Line defence strategy despite what we are saying to the press so we expect it. The bookies expect it. Its all there for May to replicate Thatcher and rule for a generation. And MayBe she will and MayBe she won't. My years studying politics tell me anything is possible, and expect the unexpected. Events dear boy...
TSE. I think we are in danger of forgetting the potential effect of the local elections in twelve days time. These, if they go to form, will allow the Tories to claim the death of the kippers and the Lib Dem to talk about real votes in real ballot boxes. Could this be the final nail in Labour's coffin?
If the Tory ge surge gives some help, there won't be as many LD votes to talk up.
Morris Dancer I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
Yesterday's poll showed a majority vote for the Union.
I expect we have seen peak SNP and if the GE confirms the polls with a clear Union majority, Theresa May will not grant a referendum before the 2021 Holyrood election
I see that emboldened by a couple of opinion polls Scott P and Roger are churning out total lies about both Salmond and the efforts of SNP MPs
They should both remember the truth, not lies, about the nastiness of the rape clause Tories and how easy it will be to remind Scots of that.
Any Tory "victory" in Scotland can only be relative, and when the dust settles, it will be clear that the snp have far more seats than the Tories in Scotland and that delaying a referendum is merely delaying the end on the Union.
TSE is right as always and in line with the polling from my favourites Survation ! There is no possibility of us winning by 25%, but 10% and 60 maj remains possible.
But I May be wrong
Any Tory lead as low as 10%, or even down into single figures, makes wholly improbable assumptions about the strength of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the weakness of the Tories, or most likely both.
The Tory 2015 vote appears very solid, the upward trajectory of the Lib Dems has been very shallow, Ukip shows signs of collapse with the bulk of its votes going Conservative, and the notion that Labour under Corbyn will poll as well as Gordon Brown's 29% is for the birds.
If the Tories can't manage at least 12% then they'll have under-performed, given the circumstances. 15%+ seems far more likely.
Has any egregiously lefty celebrity promised to leave the country if the Tories win yet? I know they never actually follow through but it's always a fun feature of election campaigning.
Apart from a few unredeemables (e.g., Loach, Steele, Hardy) I suspect many of the virtue-signalling usual suspects will want to back away from any possibility of catching leprosy.
Unlikely to happen but what would happen if JC were to resign? Is there any formal process that needs to be followed for a leadership election with a GE campaign?
I assume Labour's cunning plan is to bring out a new daft BIG policy a day though the campaign. 4 new bank holidays on Saints days is today's, what do PBers think the others will be?
Morris Dancer I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
16 year olds grow up. The SNP is going the way of SLAB.
St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April
Plus Easter and the Two May Bank holidays!
There wouldn't be a deal done in my office for a while...
You dont have to give people bank holidays off, they get x days per year that's it. I think. And they usually choose to give you x - bank holidays off per year. So they'd just not give so many of the cluster off automatically.
A few people on Twitter are trawling the archives and retweeting all those who predicted Corbyn would win back Scotland, which always amuses me.
I suspect SLab have further to fall, once he gets broader exposure over the next 7 weeks.
SLab are done, it is a complete re-alignment, going forward there will be Nationalist, Unionists and Liberals.
Amazingly Labour telling 40% of their supporters they thought they were Nazis didn't work out well and their remaining members are looking to defend the Union so are flocking to the party that can do so.
Morris Dancer I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
16 year olds grow up. The SNP is going the way of SLAB.
I assume Labour's cunning plan is to bring out a new daft BIG policy a day though the campaign. 4 new bank holidays on Saints days is today's, what do PBers think the others will be?
Larger Mars bars?
Well, that £500bn infrastructure plan is going to have some stupid examples, isn't it? A monorail for Islington perhaps?
To more important things. Fans of the annual Spurs choke will be pleased to know that there are some superb odds to take advantage of from the bookies this year. My SkyBet selection: * £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me) * £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1 * £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
Knowing several spurs fans, I heartily approve of the cynicism is your betting strategy.
St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April
Plus Easter and the Two May Bank holidays!
There wouldn't be a deal done in my office for a while...
You dont have to give people bank holidays off, they get x days per year that's it.
It's an interesting one. My work would far rather I took Bank Holidays (wihch are basically required leave) because our clients are more likely to do the same. But that's for the eight established holidays. These extra four would likely be ignored as I have a relatively generous leave entitlement anyway.
Unlikely to happen but what would happen if JC were to resign? Is there any formal process that needs to be followed for a leadership election with a GE campaign?
Total guess that if no opposition the deputy takes over, or if contested the national committee appoints from the candidates.
Unlikely to happen but what would happen if JC were to resign? Is there any formal process that needs to be followed for a leadership election with a GE campaign?
Nominations for a challenger need to come from MPs. After Parliament is dissolved on 2nd May there are technically no MPs until after the election.
There's is now a reasonable possibility that the huge poll leads for the Conservatives have the opposite effect on Labour and cause its already-ethereal discipline to break down completely. The rout could get worse.
There must be a good chance of some defections to other parties now. With Slab now on 13% and a pleasant if dull leader just what is the UKLab floor?
Or 18% if you look at Survation. The pollsters did understate Labour last year for Holyrood election - albeit not to the extent as the Tories.
Unlikely to happen but what would happen if JC were to resign? Is there any formal process that needs to be followed for a leadership election with a GE campaign?
Watson would take over. Champagne Len will not allow that. Jeremy will be forced to carry on - at the point of a gun if necessary.
Morris Dancer I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
16 year olds grow up. The SNP is going the way of SLAB.
SNP strategy for the general election is to give the vote to 16 year olds.
This may get the support of 16 year olds - but not their vote.
I assume Labour's cunning plan is to bring out a new daft BIG policy a day though the campaign. 4 new bank holidays on Saints days is today's, what do PBers think the others will be?
Larger Mars bars?
Why do they need stupid policies when they've got Corbyn? It seems overkill, even for the professionals heavily invested in the Labour seat spreads.
TSE. I think we are in danger of forgetting the potential effect of the local elections in twelve days time. These, if they go to form, will allow the Tories to claim the death of the kippers and the Lib Dem to talk about real votes in real ballot boxes. Could this be the final nail in Labour's coffin?
If the Tory ge surge gives some help, there won't be as many LD votes to talk up.
It will certainly punctuate the campaign into two halves. If, during the first, Labour is clearly down and out, then the second part may see a LibDem surge or, alternatively, the momentum behind the Tories will become so strong that they too are overwhelmed. The risk for the Tories is that it's a long campaign, and despite the PM closeting herself away with handpicked supporters, something can always go wrong. Six weeks of this and the press will be desperate for some kind of story, and the British have a resistance to anyone winning too big.
There are already signs that the LibDem campaign is fleet enough to start repositioning itself for this kind of scenario.
St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April
Plus Easter and the Two May Bank holidays!
There wouldn't be a deal done in my office for a while...
You dont have to give people bank holidays off, they get x days per year that's it.
It's an interesting one. My work would far rather I took Bank Holidays (wihch are basically required leave) because our clients are more likely to do the same. But that's for the eight established holidays. These extra four would likely be ignored as I have a relatively generous leave entitlement anyway.
That's the big thing with too many of them - you'd have to ignore some, especially if clustered.
The Conservatives are the party that brought us the three day week. The one fact that should never be forgotten about British politics is that the Conservative reputation for economic competence is based purely on them continually claiming it. They have never actually possessed it.
Wasn't it the Labour-backing trade unions that brought us the 3-day week in the 70s? I'm sure Ted Heath would have been happy to have avoided it if possible.
To more important things. Fans of the annual Spurs choke will be pleased to know that there are some superb odds to take advantage of from the bookies this year. My SkyBet selection: * £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me) * £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1 * £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
Knowing several spurs fans, I heartily approve of the cynicism is your betting strategy.
Even at 3-2 yesterday I was convinced Spurs would win, I guess I'll never learn. Walking down Wembley Way being depressed is a very familiar feeling
An interesting evening of polling which got one or two people a bit over-excited.
As for Corbyn this morning, he usually interviews well on Marr so I think I'll watch it for myself rather than listen to the expected negativity of Conservative activists, tweeters and bloggers.
The Bank Holidays plan isn't a bad one - I wouldn't mind some extra days and neither would Mrs Stodge. The uncomfortable truth is a lot of people don't get paid if they don't work and that money is vital for them so losing four days pay would be a blow.
The prospective days need to be better thought out and spread down the year - I'm not sure we should be celebrating military victories from centuries past either. We could simply pick some nice median points between existing days - perhaps the two "half terms" in mid February and late October which don't have a holiday as a start. Another in mid July and add a day on to New Year.
That's the first campaign target of the Stodge Party - the party of evenly spaced sensible public holidays.
On topic, all the points are valid and I personally find May a very unemotional, characterless individual. I'm sure among friends she is the life and soul but she comes over as cold and were she facing a Blair or a John Smith she'd have real problems. She tries too hard to be Thatcher (presumably because her advisers have told her the elderly like that) and comes over as a third-rate imitator.
Corbyn has warmth though as others have said while I'd probably enjoy his company he's unsuited to be Prime Minister.
That said, his unsuitability, her desire to be a second-rate Thatcher and copious and ludicrous lashings of fear and innuendo from CCHQ will see her comfortably home.
If Tory performance at the locals disappoints even slightly, it may only boost Tory turnout at the GE to ensure the desired outcome. Then again, ditto for Lab's GE hopes, I suppose. Oh, wait... look, I edited it.
Another one that could be added to TSE's list is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland, rather than anti-SNP. That might make the wilder seat gain projections there a tad optimistic?
Won't tactical voting in Scotland be on unionist/nationalist lines?
One would hope so - any allegedly patriotic Labour voter who votes SNP to keep the Tories out should take a long hard look at themselves. SNP -> Labour tactical voting is an interesting possibility, but moot given the lack of Labour/Tory contests in Scotland.
Bollox, any Labour voter who votes Tory should be ashamed of themselves
Labour moderates better hope May gets a 100 seat+ majority a landslide 1997 and 2001 if her majority increases but only to 66 Corbyn won't be going anywhere!
3) I don't know how much this will count for. I bet the Tories lost some good constituency MPs in 1997. Ultimately Labour MPs allowed Corbyn to become leader. I've backed the Tories to defeat Ma Beckett in Derby South.
There would be a particularly delicious irony in that given that she was one of the ones who nominated Jez in the first place!
Worst ever government minister - my father still wants to punch her in the face whenever he hears her name over the Rural Payments Agency fiasco. Mind you, she's still not as useless as Angela Rayner.
Harriet Harman is the one who needs to be defeated - but there is little chance of that.
I assume Labour's cunning plan is to bring out a new daft BIG policy a day though the campaign. 4 new bank holidays on Saints days is today's, what do PBers think the others will be?
Larger Mars bars?
Why do they need stupid policies when they've got Corbyn? It seems overkill, even for the professionals heavily invested in the Labour seat spreads.
It's worrying when even their novelty policies are essentially going to cost money!
(I know that the case is far from proven that it would, but I think that the balance of probabilities are that it would. I don't think it's a particularly horrible idea, but as was said below its a 9-year-old's free sweets (or owls) policy.)
Labour need to find a few areas where they have credible policies. I'm not sure they have even one do they?
Btw - the choice of thread pic was purely for Scrapheap following my blatant trolling of him last week.
The polls in that image were out by around 17%, in favour of Labour.
If the same were true today, this would be the most one-sided election in history, eclipsing the 'doctor's mandate' of 1931, the coupon election of 1918, the Tariff Reform election of 1906, the Reform Act election of 1832 and the Pitt election of 1784.
I don't think it will be quite as bad as Tories win 60-20, but it's already looking absolutely brutal.
It's the Scotland polling that got me.
I was tipped off about the Tories getting 12 seats, I swore lots and felt shocked into paralysis for a few mins.
It is utter and total bollox, there is absolutely no chance of Tories getting 12 seats in Scotland. Anyone who believes that is a cretin.
Another one that could be added to TSE's list is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland, rather than anti-SNP. That might make the wilder seat gain projections there a tad optimistic?
There will be tactical voting in Scotland but not necessarily dominated by "anti- Tory"
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
One of the amazing thing about GR is how quickly it was accepted by the physics community.
Having worked through the derivations of various parts of Relativity theory at Uni, I have to agree with Einstein. The physics and mathematics worked together so beautifully and elegantly that they simply have to be true
They should both remember the truth, not lies, about the nastiness of the rape clause Tories and how easy it will be to remind Scots of that.
The nastiness lies with the SNP who - if they believe its so terrible (what would they do, remove it and deny child benefit, or not cap child benefit at all ? We should be told) - could do something about it - but don't.
Another one that could be added to TSE's list is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland, rather than anti-SNP. That might make the wilder seat gain projections there a tad optimistic?
Won't tactical voting in Scotland be on unionist/nationalist lines?
One would hope so - any allegedly patriotic Labour voter who votes SNP to keep the Tories out should take a long hard look at themselves. SNP -> Labour tactical voting is an interesting possibility, but moot given the lack of Labour/Tory contests in Scotland.
I didn't realise until reading this article that "dominatrices" was the plural of "dominatrix". I'd been using "dominatrixes". I feel kind of stupid now.
To be fair it isn't a word you need to use in the plural very often.
What a quiet life you lead.
TMI, Alistair, TMI...
Blame, I was the one who wrote about hiring 400 dominatrixes in one night, concurrently.
Information overload, Mr Eagles.
(And shouldn't it be 'dominatrices?')
Blinking auto correct
Off topic - saw an open top Mercedes with number plate TSE 1 last Monday. Just wondering.
I do have a private number plate, but not that one.
I do find private number plates a bit gauche but my parents bought it for me years ago.
These are one thing for which the American name is unquestionably better.
They call them "vanity plates".
I agree, were it not that it was a gift from my parents I'd have ditched it.
Rather sums up my parents, I had just passed my driving test, and for the first time in his life, my father bought a brand new car, and it was for me.
Replete with private number plate.
I'm already enough of a bad son, without throwing the number plates back at them.
Hah!
I passed my driving test and my parents bought me a 10 year old third hand VW Polo for about £500...
Another one that could be added to TSE's list is the return of anti-Tory tactical voting in Scotland, rather than anti-SNP. That might make the wilder seat gain projections there a tad optimistic?
Won't tactical voting in Scotland be on unionist/nationalist lines?
One would hope so - any allegedly patriotic Labour voter who votes SNP to keep the Tories out should take a long hard look at themselves. SNP -> Labour tactical voting is an interesting possibility, but moot given the lack of Labour/Tory contests in Scotland.
Bollox, any Labour voter who votes Tory should be ashamed of themselves
Morning Malc - seems my predictions of the rise of the conservatives and unionist support is crystalising in the Scots polls. I have concern over polls but the direction of travel, not only in Scotland but here in Wales, does point to a good conservative result in GE2017 and also in Scotland
Whether a policy of extra bank holidays is or isn't a good idea - it is being proposed on an utterly ridiculous basis.
Have they clarified whether they are adding four days to the statutory minimum annual holiday as well? For many people that's the key question, and if not done they could effectively be funding the new bank holidays from within their existing entitlement,
It seems the Labour campaign on the doorsteps is basically going to be "vote Labour because we can't win". And not stupid given that most people don't believe Corbyn can win.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
He was simultaneously Chancellor of England and Archbishop of Canterbury. In his spare time he wrote the Coronation Order that we still use today (albeit slightly updated for linguistic changes)
Edit: in drawings of him he's often depicted as using a long spoon to sup with the Devil
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
Bank holidays are a relic from the late 19th century, before the days of annual leave entitlements. If I were dictator (and the country could do a lot worse) I'd abolish them and add the number of days to annual leave entitlements. Then people could take their holiday when they chose, not when the government thinks they should.
And I'd shoot anybody who said that this increased freedom was a bad idea.
No need to be a dictator that's already the law, although companies are allowed to shutdown and make you use one of your 28 day entitlement if they've shut down on that day.
If the polls are accurate, Labour's going to play the part of Alderaan to the Conservatives' Death Star.
It's already bad for democracy to have such an inept opposition. If Labour are this badly harmed, they have to axe Corbyn or split. The alternative is a risk of the worst result for Labour since WWII, to be followed five years later by an even worse result.
Still a long way to go, though. I wonder if May's regretting making the campaign period so long.
She had no choice - under the terms of the FTPA there have to be 5 weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day. What I still cannot get my head around is why Corbyn meekly bowed to her wishes. Had he got Labour to abstain and denied fer the required 434 , he could be PM by now if May had continued with her election plans by tabling a No Confidence Vote in her own Government. The guy is thoroughly imbecilic.
St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April
Plus Easter and the Two May Bank holidays!
There wouldn't be a deal done in my office for a while...
You dont have to give people bank holidays off, they get x days per year that's it. I think. And they usually choose to give you x - bank holidays off per year. So they'd just not give so many of the cluster off automatically.
If you have been in a contract a long time (basically since before 2009) and your contract has not been amended then it is quite possible that you are now entitled to 8 days extra holiday compared to when you signed your contract.
A lot of contracts used to say you were entitled to 'the statutory minimum plus bank holidays'. In 2009 that statutory minimum was changed from 20 days to 28 days but was assumed to include the 8 bank holidays as there was no legal requirement to give these. But legally if your contract still says 'the statutory minimum plus bank holidays' then you are contractually entitled to 36 days (the 28 days statutory plus 8 days bank holidays).
Btw - the choice of thread pic was purely for Scrapheap following my blatant trolling of him last week.
The polls in that image were out by around 17%, in favour of Labour.
If the same were true today, this would be the most one-sided election in history, eclipsing the 'doctor's mandate' of 1931, the coupon election of 1918, the Tariff Reform election of 1906, the Reform Act election of 1832 and the Pitt election of 1784.
I don't think it will be quite as bad as Tories win 60-20, but it's already looking absolutely brutal.
It's the Scotland polling that got me.
I was tipped off about the Tories getting 12 seats, I swore lots and felt shocked into paralysis for a few mins.
It is utter and total bollox, there is absolutely no chance of Tories getting 12 seats in Scotland. Anyone who believes that is a cretin.
If there was a Betfair market on those terms I'd certainly be looking to back the Tories at the price implied by 'absolutely no chance'. Could someone suggest such a market to them?
Indeed they do-but every 16 year old in Scotland has spent his whole life in a country In which Holyrood has existed. Such people now ask why a parliament based in another country should veto the Scottish parliament. That is quite distinct from the gradual drift to the right which often does come with age.
Comments
May may be mediocre.
The problem is Corbyn is electoral kryptonite.
Massive vote in favour.
But I May be wrong
Some suggested sub 20% - I have been treating the polls with caution but I am really coming to the conclusion that this election is going to be very like Blair in 1997
I regard an advance by the Tories in Scotland as Pyrrhic as it will put Scotland in an unambiguous Tory v SNP state in which no matter how much May and the MSM shriek, the SNP are the winners.
May will block the referendum which flies the face of the demographics which show over 70 per cent of 16 year olds support independence. Delay is a negative for unionists
Also Ashcroft's polls show that a majority of Scots do not think Westminster have a right to block given Holyrood has voted for the referendum. Resentment will therefore build.
St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April
Plus Easter and the Two May Bank holidays!
There wouldn't be a deal done in my office for a while...
TSE makes some interesting points and I do think there are a lot of variables in this particular negotiation with the electorate:
1. Tory arrogance not complacency. They simply think the election and the country are theirs by rights. Combine that with points 6-9 and its not a guaranteed shoo-in. I still remember 2010 where despite all that Broon did to screw it up the Tories still managed to deliver a result that had us asking "is that it?"
2 and 3. Labour will not win this election. Corbyn will never get his hands on the nuclear button (although he did once get his hands on Diane Abbott's "nuclear button") so that really helps the "I don't like Corbyn" voters. So what - he will be gone very soon. But your life of struggle and the Tories kicking you and laughing will remain. So the more Labour MPs we get the better our next leader can defend you. "Don't give MayBe a blank cheque" is a powerful argument
4. Its the economy stupid. And the divide between the prospering and the struggling is a chasm that many of us in the prosperous half manage to ignore, or blame those stuck in the other half for. Never mind people blaming migrants as the issue, its the prosperous blaming the poor for poverty thats the real issue that grates with people on the doorstep. Its not a sympathy shag its desperation prostituting
5. We intend to go to town on St Theresa. She is the biggest political liar of this generation - forget Clegg and Tuition Frees MayBe lied about Brexit and lied about an election and lied about her budget and changes her mind every time the wind changes direction. And she says this election is one of trust - yes she will win but do you trust her enough to give her the power to do anything she wants to do?
The Tories will win. They expect it. Labour HQ are preparing a Maginot Line defence strategy despite what we are saying to the press so we expect it. The bookies expect it. Its all there for May to replicate Thatcher and rule for a generation. And MayBe she will and MayBe she won't. My years studying politics tell me anything is possible, and expect the unexpected. Events dear boy...
@danbloom1:
Corbyn: "You're jumping in too quick!"
Marr: "I'll wait for your killer line then." disaster
"The medium IS the message."
Marshal McLuhan
I expect we have seen peak SNP and if the GE confirms the polls with a clear Union majority, Theresa May will not grant a referendum before the 2021 Holyrood election
The Tory 2015 vote appears very solid, the upward trajectory of the Lib Dems has been very shallow, Ukip shows signs of collapse with the bulk of its votes going Conservative, and the notion that Labour under Corbyn will poll as well as Gordon Brown's 29% is for the birds.
If the Tories can't manage at least 12% then they'll have under-performed, given the circumstances. 15%+ seems far more likely.
Apart from a few unredeemables (e.g., Loach, Steele, Hardy) I suspect many of the virtue-signalling usual suspects will want to back away from any possibility of catching leprosy.
Huzzah for the return of Ave It on Saint George's Day!
Larger Mars bars?
Amazingly Labour telling 40% of their supporters they thought they were Nazis didn't work out well and their remaining members are looking to defend the Union so are flocking to the party that can do so.
We should get 3 min IE all the borders. Might get a few more. Not sure we will get Edinburgh N
"Aw bless"
The Yes campaign moved from 30 per cent to 45 per cent in Indyref1
Glad to see the unionist complacent that allowed that to happen is alive and well :-)
SNP strategy for the general election is to give the vote to 16 year olds.
This may get the support of 16 year olds - but not their vote.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/23/corbyn-suggests-labour-scrap-trident/
https://order-order.com/2017/04/23/corbyn-wont-say-hed-kill-isis-leader/
But its ok he did say “I am not a defender or supporter of ISIS in any way…”
There are already signs that the LibDem campaign is fleet enough to start repositioning itself for this kind of scenario.
and CON GAIN Bootle.
They really are up that creek without a paddle
An interesting evening of polling which got one or two people a bit over-excited.
As for Corbyn this morning, he usually interviews well on Marr so I think I'll watch it for myself rather than listen to the expected negativity of Conservative activists, tweeters and bloggers.
The Bank Holidays plan isn't a bad one - I wouldn't mind some extra days and neither would Mrs Stodge. The uncomfortable truth is a lot of people don't get paid if they don't work and that money is vital for them so losing four days pay would be a blow.
The prospective days need to be better thought out and spread down the year - I'm not sure we should be celebrating military victories from centuries past either. We could simply pick some nice median points between existing days - perhaps the two "half terms" in mid February and late October which don't have a holiday as a start. Another in mid July and add a day on to New Year.
That's the first campaign target of the Stodge Party - the party of evenly spaced sensible public holidays.
On topic, all the points are valid and I personally find May a very unemotional, characterless individual. I'm sure among friends she is the life and soul but she comes over as cold and were she facing a Blair or a John Smith she'd have real problems. She tries too hard to be Thatcher (presumably because her advisers have told her the elderly like that) and comes over as a third-rate imitator.
Corbyn has warmth though as others have said while I'd probably enjoy his company he's unsuited to be Prime Minister.
That said, his unsuitability, her desire to be a second-rate Thatcher and copious and ludicrous lashings of fear and innuendo from CCHQ will see her comfortably home.
's GE hopes, I suppose. Oh, wait... look, I edited it.(I know that the case is far from proven that it would, but I think that the balance of probabilities are that it would. I don't think it's a particularly horrible idea, but as was said below its a 9-year-old's free sweets (or owls) policy.)
Labour need to find a few areas where they have credible policies. I'm not sure they have even one do they?
You alright?
I passed my driving test and my parents bought me a 10 year old third hand VW Polo for about £500...
A lot of contracts used to say you were entitled to 'the statutory minimum plus bank holidays'. In 2009 that statutory minimum was changed from 20 days to 28 days but was assumed to include the 8 bank holidays as there was no legal requirement to give these. But legally if your contract still says 'the statutory minimum plus bank holidays' then you are contractually entitled to 36 days (the 28 days statutory plus 8 days bank holidays).
Any other opinions to help me decide if to go in again? Maxed out at 10/1 yesterday
"16 year olds grow up"
Indeed they do-but every 16 year old in Scotland has spent his whole life in a country
In which Holyrood has existed.
Such people now ask why a parliament based in another country should veto the Scottish parliament. That is quite distinct from the gradual drift to the right which often does come with age.
Anyone care to let Tim know what he's doing wrong here?