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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could
Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority.
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Talking of first....this is the first General Election where I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for. It's quite liberating
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/general-election/jeremy-corbyn-promises-four-new-uk-bank-holidays-if-labour-wins-election/ar-BBAa606?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
Corbyn 20 years on, about to recreate Blair's landslide in reverse. How long will it take Labour to recover? 1931 was a catastrophic defeat for Labour, took them 15 years to get back, in part thanks to a coalition from 1940 in a World War. Perhaps a no 11 bus might help Labour, but only if Corbyn stepped in front of it during the next week.
Re Cameron & Osborne were so good, why have they departed the political stage so fast?
http://www.magazinehorse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Helmut-Newton-Two-Models-In-My-Apartment-Paris-1.png
In a compendium of mistakes that was his biggest.
*reads through 15 pages of posts*
Bloody hell, fifty percent in GB and 30% in Scotland!
And we're just starting with "Corbyn is the friend of terrorists" stories today in the Telegraph" - shame that one didn't come out when he was in Warrington yesterday.
Happy days, I think I'll be buying Tory seats too, if I can find a way to get on from out here.
Jezza's Election Chances A Crap Jim But Not As We Know It
For example, things like merging income tax and NI. NI is an anachronism. A combined basic NI/tax rate of say 30% with higher rate of 47% would hit the Corbyn 70K'ers and richer pensioners very hard and would be very unpopular indeed with a very vocal part of the population.
Hence the reluctance to keep the triple lock going.
Hurrah for Latin classes.
Many years ago in London I was handed a flyer offering the services of an escort agency and their dominatrixes.
I've never been so disgusted at such poor grammar.
That's something you never ever want to google.
https://www.spreadex.com/sports/mobile/page/spr/573773/1/2335564
https://mobile.sportingindex.com/markets/0a912203d8204ead92bb0d6cf96cd578/87be4ed674be41a8b23bfa0f53bea35b/group_b.ebb77a08-5cd6-4e69-9096-cdc826441491/00000000000000000000000000000000
If the same were true today, this would be the most one-sided election in history, eclipsing the 'doctor's mandate' of 1931, the coupon election of 1918, the Tariff Reform election of 1906, the Reform Act election of 1832 and the Pitt election of 1784.
I don't think it will be quite as bad as Tories win 60-20, but it's already looking absolutely brutal.
I'll assume we're at a high water mark for Tory support and a good but not stonking majority will arrive in 7 weeks, but I am no longer as confident as I was.
(And shouldn't it be 'dominatrices?')
I was tipped off about the Tories getting 12 seats, I swore lots and felt shocked into paralysis for a few mins.
Giving all your money to be punished and sexually frustrated by a woman all night long.
I got that free from my wife and girlfriend.
As for the rumours regarding Wales, in its own way that's even more epochal.
Read this, then went to read the previous article (I'd missed, as I was away then).
Hmm. May need to add the Battle of Kleidion to my list.
I agree a 66 seat majority is eminently possible (40-80 seems likely to me) but if these polling shares were repeated on the night, Labour would be as screwed as a nymphomaniac with a carpentry fetish.
Jezza also seems to do quite well with the ladies!
1) Turnout might be depressed, but remember what OGH's biggest betting loss was - thinking that a low turnout in 2001 favoured the Tories. I'm expecting a lot of Labour voters to stay at home.
2) Shy Labour voters might become an issue once the Tories get to work on his previous. I'm still not sure people are fully aware of his past.
3) I don't know how much this will count for. I bet the Tories lost some good constituency MPs in 1997. Ultimately Labour MPs allowed Corbyn to become leader. I've backed the Tories to defeat Ma Beckett in Derby South.
4) No
5) I think May's popularity is derived from her not being Cameron and Osborne. The polling on May last week suggested that people didn't think she necessarily had a great personality - but that's not what people are voting for here.
6) The Tories are going to win - what they need to work out is where to focus their resources. I'm not sure Crosby matters this time.
7) If true, then six doesn't matter.
8) I don't think it will make that much difference. I expect Labour and the Lib Dems to be over optimistic.
9) This could matter - but if it does blow up, will voters assume it was the past regime that's now gone? Do voters know who Nick Timothy is?
10) I think if the polls are wrong, they are likely to be overstating Labour.
I've been saying this election might be an ELE for Labour: if it survives then Labour in 2022 or 2027 might be a very different beast to the one even Tony Blair oversaw.
But there's another question: is this because the Labour party isn't needed any more? The circumstances in which it was founded 117 years ago no longer exist: in fact, they've won many of the battles. The new battles for the twenty-first century may be better fought by a different party, and one less mired in the old arguments of the past.
Not my area of expertise (although Sir Edric's Kingdom does have a dominatrix as his paramour), but I would've thought payment up front, in cash would be much likelier.
"The Labour Party is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom."
Methinks that needs altering. They're *way* off the centre ground.
Both saw big increases in turnout on the previous equivalent election in favour of SNP i. 2015 and the SCons in 2016.
I have no clue what turnout will look like this time.
Worst ever government minister - my father still wants to punch her in the face whenever he hears her name over the Rural Payments Agency fiasco. Mind you, she's still not as useless as Angela Rayner.
Oh, wait...
https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/856036164351926273
11) The fear factor of Corbyn as PM is just not credible as a campaign narrative. No one is predicting Labour to gain seats, indeed just 50 losses would be regarded as a Dunkirk like great escape.
Conservative 4/11 in BRS is insane
Conservative 1/3 in DCT is insane
Conservative 7/4!!!!!! in D&G is insanity gone mad.
Pile on. Even if the Tory Surge falls back these are rock solid gains/holds
It's already bad for democracy to have such an inept opposition. If Labour are this badly harmed, they have to axe Corbyn or split. The alternative is a risk of the worst result for Labour since WWII, to be followed five years later by an even worse result.
Still a long way to go, though. I wonder if May's regretting making the campaign period so long.
I don't think they will be left with the inner cities at this rate. Those are drifting away too (hardly surprising, given the way the party treat their inhabitants). They will be left with the suburban, wealthy, upper-middle class in a handful of major urban centres - Newcastle, West Yorkshire, Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Brighton and London. And they'll be fighting with the Greens for the votes of that group - much as the Liberals in the 1930s-1950s were de facto the group of Celtic nationalism and constitutional reform wonks. That's where I can see Labour ten years from now.
Or alternatively they ditch Corbyn and get someone who isn't a slightly unhinged geriatric Fascist with the IQ of a dead stoat to start rebuilding. But who that is I don't know. It may depend on who the survivors are.
In any case, as you say, much of this is hypothetical.
I know many professional people in Scotland, Unionists, prosperous, small c conservatives who like Ruth but still find voting Tory too far. The anger from the poll tax has had an incredible shelf life and even now the Tories are not decontaminated, especially amongst disillusioned ex Labour supporters looking for a home. Reaching that group is going to be very hard.
I would scrap the May 1st bank holiday and move it to the first Monday of July.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
I saw an article yesterday that made the point that Alex Salmond was popular across the political divide, governing for "all of Scotland", until the day he announced the Indyref. At that point he was either on your side, or agin ye.
Nicola made the same mistake. After Indyref1 she was meant to be a unifying figure, until now.
The great irony is the SNP would be looking in much better shape at this election if she had never announced Indyref2.
Chortle...
Also, how do bank holidays effect GDP? If we have roughly 250 working days a year, won't four extra days off be worth between one and two percent of GDP?
Warning: there's almost certainly some poor maths in the above ...
(*) Citation required.
Edit - although today is also another significant double anniversary for one of our great national figures of course (I won't patronise people by saying whom)!
Will it be as effective as his past efforts against Labour in 1997, and 2001?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/1245613.stm