If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
Nah, they'll say that it's no surprise the party of the three day week want to give us more days off, with the commensurate drop in GDP. However they might be willing to look at shuffling dates around to put a holiday somewhere between August and Christmas.
I didn't realise until reading this article that "dominatrices" was the plural of "dominatrix". I'd been using "dominatrixes". I feel kind of stupid now.
To be fair it isn't a word you need to use in the plural very often.
What a quiet life you lead.
TMI, Alistair, TMI...
Blame, I was the one who wrote about hiring 400 dominatrixes in one night, concurrently.
I wonder if Fat Eck is hoping he loses his Westminster seat.
Not only would it allow him to collect yet another taxpayer cheque for losing, it would free him up to return to Holyrood and take over again, now that Nicola's bum is oot the windae
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
Corbyn's polling trend is wholly predictable; however - May's line bottomed out (albeit still in positive figures) at the start of the year, and then started going back up again.
This might have something, perhaps even a lot, to do with her not being Corbyn - but then again, Farron and Nuttall both have pretty negative ratings as well.
The Prime Minister has a huge advantage on personal leadership; ditto she and Hammond on economic competence. These secondary indicators were more accurate than headline VI in predicting the outcome two years ago. The evidence thus far suggests that the Tories are not complacent - reports of canvassers heading out to marginals in numbers, rumours that the MoS poll shocker story may have been party of the CCHQ GOTV effort, dark warnings of the Coalition of Chaos, Ruth Davidson telling her troops to stay on the attack.
If there is a lower turnout than last time, then there's nothing in particular to suggest that it will harm the Tories (quite the reverse: it might give the Lib Dems a few more chances in pro-EU seats if furious Remainers are really motivated, but the broader story on turnout is that the demographics favour the Tories, and a low turnout election ought to give greater weight to their elderly fan base, who are more committed voters.) The row over the debates is a damp squib: few people are going to be interested in watching half a dozen lefties scrap over the same pool of voters if May is empty-chaired.
Really, the only serious concern is the possibility of there being a shy Labour vote, but on that point I go back to the issue of the secondary questions. Corbyn and McDonnell are transcendantly unpopular and useless. Frankly, I think there's more likely to be a shy Tory vote in Scotland.
There is very good evidence that Labour support typically declines during the course of the short campaign. In each of the past six general elections, even 1997 and 2001, the Labour polling averages two months out were higher than the party's vote share on polling day. If that trend continues then Labour would end up in the low 20s.
Finally, the polls in 2015 were not that far out. They got Labour and the Tories wrong by about 3% each (and, lest we forget, it was the Conservatives who were under-estimated,) and the rest of the parties pretty much spot on. There is the possibility that May is in the low-to-mid, rather than upper, 40s, and that Corbyn is actually doing as badly as Michael Foot rather than worse - but I very much doubt it's any closer than that.
Barring a black swan, I can't see how May is going to fall that far short of a hundred seat majority - and clearly if Labour's position really is as dire as the polls suggest, and if there's more good news from Scotland and Wales, this could turn into a real bloodbath.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Justinian II had one made of gold, after his enemies chopped it off.
Lord Hervey, an Irish peer, and Marquess of Bristol, once entered a tavern, and one of his enemies began sniffing loudly, saying "I smell an Irishman.". Hervey's reply? "By God Sir, you will never smell another" and sliced off the Man's nose with a dagger.
4m voted UKIP 2 years ago, these people like voting. They won't vote for a party that is pro immigration and pro EU which rules out Labour and LDs, I'll be amazed if UKIP manage 100 candidates, the vast majority of which effectively will be paper candidates.
Allowing for abstentions I'd suggest a bare minimum of 2.5m will vote Conservative.
I hope you're right - but I believe someone on this site once said that the 2015 Labour vote would = 2010 Labour plus (2010 Lib Dem/2) - I'm not sure that worked out so well for him.
Most kippers wouldn't have voted for Cameron but they'll vote for May
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
i do wonder how much we will hear from the more sensible labour MPs like cooper. Do they really want to be seen on the tellybox and defending corbyns crack head policies and claiming the system is rigged against them?
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
I see it is 4 new bank holidays for everybody not the more sensible one new one based on country. The man is truly bonkers. Do you think he realises how many there will be around this time of year? Probably not as he has never had a proper job.
4m voted UKIP 2 years ago, these people like voting. They won't vote for a party that is pro immigration and pro EU which rules out Labour and LDs, I'll be amazed if UKIP manage 100 candidates, the vast majority of which effectively will be paper candidates.
Allowing for abstentions I'd suggest a bare minimum of 2.5m will vote Conservative.
Yougov found that in 2015 45% of UKIP's voters had previously voted Tory so that would give them 1.7 million if they simply reverted. It also found that 15% had previously voted LibDem so 570,000 for them and 418,000 for Labour. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/
This bank holiday policy is completely bonkers. Why the f*** do we want another three holidays in March/April and bloody day off at the end of November?
I would scrap the May 1st bank holiday and move it to the first Monday of July.
I agree that even if people want another four days off, they don't want some of them clustered around Easter (and in fact with two that will probably (*) coincide with Easter in some years).
Also, how do bank holidays effect GDP? If we have roughly 250 working days a year, won't four extra days off be worth between one and two percent of GDP?
Warning: there's almost certainly some poor maths in the above ...
(*) Citation required.
Five day Easter in 2019...
These silly GDP calculations fail to recognise Parkinson's law. Dustbin men have bank holidays off, at least in these parts, but that does not imply that only four fifths of the rubbish is collected in bank holiday weeks.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
That's a blistering piece from Hodges, Labour will ignore the message though because of the messenger.
The message is labour won't learn unless they get thumped hard and the country will suffer too if they don't, of course the party will ignore that message.
4m voted UKIP 2 years ago, these people like voting. They won't vote for a party that is pro immigration and pro EU which rules out Labour and LDs, I'll be amazed if UKIP manage 100 candidates, the vast majority of which effectively will be paper candidates.
Allowing for abstentions I'd suggest a bare minimum of 2.5m will vote Conservative.
I hope you're right - but I believe someone on this site once said that the 2015 Labour vote would = 2010 Labour plus (2010 Lib Dem/2) - I'm not sure that worked out so well for him.
Most kippers wouldn't have voted for Cameron but they'll vote for May
Unless it becomes clear May will use a large majority to enable compromise on various eu issues. Notvsaying that's likely.
Mr. Meeks, that might be the chap I was thinking of...
I think this thread has just reaffirmed my knowledge of modern history is not fantastic. Not as bad as Mr. Eagles' knowledge of classical history, of course, but still not great.
How do people feel about 7 for the Conservatives to win Angus?
I didn't realise until reading this article that "dominatrices" was the plural of "dominatrix". I'd been using "dominatrixes". I feel kind of stupid now.
To be fair it isn't a word you need to use in the plural very often.
What a quiet life you lead.
TMI, Alistair, TMI...
Blame, I was the one who wrote about hiring 400 dominatrixes in one night, concurrently.
Information overload, Mr Eagles.
(And shouldn't it be 'dominatrices?')
Blinking auto correct
Off topic - saw an open top Mercedes with number plate TSE 1 last Monday. Just wondering.
I do have a private number plate, but not that one.
I do find private number plates a bit gauche but my parents bought it for me years ago.
These are one thing for which the American name is unquestionably better.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
i do wonder how much we will hear from the more sensible labour MPs like cooper. Do they really want to be seen on the tellybox and defending corbyns crack head policies and claiming the system is rigged against them?
If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
It sounds rather more like a Ukip plan to me. Regardless, three of the four Saint's Days are clumped together in Spring, and the remaining one is at the end of November when the weather is usually shit and we're only a few weeks from Christmas. Adding four extra public holidays to the calendar in one go also wouldn't do much for the Tories' business friendly image.
IIRC the Major Govt mooted scrapping May Day (too socialist for their tastes) and replacing it with Trafalgar Day, so I wouldn't be wholly surprised if that idea got another airing at some point. If they also wanted to give people one extra bank holiday as a present, then they could do worse than doubling up in August: Scotland currently gets one at the start of the month, everyone else at the end. They could let the whole country have both. Would go down especially well with parents of school-aged children.
Looking forward to reports from PBers on leaflets they get. I suspect Labour ones will not mention Corbyn and will be packed full of local stuff about state of the nearby A&E.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
Ive noticed a trend of labour anti Corbyn opinion which takes the true point that labours problems did not start with Corbyn way too far, to the point of seemingly devoiding him of responsibility, even if they claim otherwise.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
It sounds rather more like a Ukip plan to me. Regardless, three of the four Saint's Days are clumped together in Spring, and the remaining one is at the end of November when the weather is usually shit and we're only a few weeks from Christmas. Adding four extra public holidays to the calendar in one go also wouldn't do much for the Tories' business friendly image.
IIRC the Major Govt mooted scrapping May Day (too socialist for their tastes) and replacing it with Trafalgar Day, so I wouldn't be wholly surprised if that idea got another airing at some point. If they also wanted to give people one extra bank holiday as a present, then they could do worse than doubling up in August: Scotland currently gets one at the start of the month, everyone else at the end. They could let the whole country have both. Would go down especially well with parents of school-aged children.
I would violently object to a bank holiday in November. It would immediately be turned into a quasi-American, thanksgivingy type thing which would just become the day Xmas shopping starts in earnest and make the whole Black Friday thing even worse.
A lot of the new Tory votes that are cast will be cast in seats that already have Tory MPs. These are essentially wasted Tory votes. However, I would not underestimate the total lack of motivation that anyone outside the far left will have in casting a vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In Labour constituencies, I'd expect turnout to be well down. The latter balances out the former. A Tory majority of 100+ looks to be the minimum, I'd have thought.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
You are saying that "And did those feet in ancient times..." etc is a QTWTAIN? I am shocked.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
Don't tell the Cornish that Jesus never visited...
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
But I thought the holy lamb of God walked on England's green and pleasant land.
Looking forward to reports from PBers on leaflets they get. I suspect Labour ones will not mention Corbyn and will be packed full of local stuff about state of the nearby A&E.
I received a well organised batch for the locals a day or so after the GE announcement by may. 1 was about my local lab candidate, another was about various local issues and the other lab candidates in the area, and the last was a generic leaflet with no mention of local matters, instead being 3 pages on the state of the NHS and a page saying a labour government was the answer.
I see it is 4 new bank holidays for everybody not the more sensible one new one based on country. The man is truly bonkers. Do you think he realises how many there will be around this time of year? Probably not as he has never had a proper job.
Knowing Labour they will all end up on Sundays.
Perhaps he misread somebody saying something a (never in) month of sundays and thought it was a policy suggestion
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
One of the amazing thing about GR is how quickly it was accepted by the physics community. Eddington is another hero of mine for championing Einstein's work at a time when Anglo-German relations were a bit strained.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
That's a blistering piece from Hodges, Labour will ignore the message though because of the messenger.
Hodges makes a lot of very strong points that I agree with. He is absolutely spot on about Corbyn. But he has decided to vote Tory. He could have chosen any number of parties. He could have sat on his hands. But he is backing Theresa May and a party that is heading to the right. I am afraid that this does give cover.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
I didn't realise until reading this article that "dominatrices" was the plural of "dominatrix". I'd been using "dominatrixes". I feel kind of stupid now.
To be fair it isn't a word you need to use in the plural very often.
What a quiet life you lead.
TMI, Alistair, TMI...
Blame, I was the one who wrote about hiring 400 dominatrixes in one night, concurrently.
Information overload, Mr Eagles.
(And shouldn't it be 'dominatrices?')
Blinking auto correct
Off topic - saw an open top Mercedes with number plate TSE 1 last Monday. Just wondering.
I do have a private number plate, but not that one.
I do find private number plates a bit gauche but my parents bought it for me years ago.
These are one thing for which the American name is unquestionably better.
They call them "vanity plates".
I agree, were it not that it was a gift from my parents I'd have ditched it.
Rather sums up my parents, I had just passed my driving test, and for the first time in his life, my father bought a brand new car, and it was for me.
Replete with private number plate.
I'm already enough of a bad son, without throwing the number plates back at them.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
There will be more of this. Corbyn's crew are planning a highly 'populist', lefty campaign by looks of things. There will be more 'giveaways' to come. All totally uncosted no doubt, but I'm sure Angela or Diane can talk us through the numbers.
Apparently French election "exit polls" are released early in Belgium/Swiss etc. In France it's at 8pm because it's embargoed until then. But they may refuse to say if it looks to be too close. It's also not actually a true exit poll but a sample of real votes from across the country, extrapolated to give overall results.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
But I thought the holy lamb of God walked on England's green and pleasant land.
If he did, its odd that his Missus chose France as her place of residence
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
That's a blistering piece from Hodges, Labour will ignore the message though because of the messenger.
Hodges makes a lot of very strong points that I agree with. He is absolutely spot on about Corbyn. But he has decided to vote Tory. He could have chosen any number of parties. He could have sat on his hands. But he is backing Theresa May and a party that is heading to the right. I am afraid that this does give cover.
Well his argument is that if people sit on their hands or choose another option, labour won't be punished enough to learn the lesson they need, that it is needed to actively vote for their main opponents to learn that lesson. It's a bold argument, though it's easy to see why that does not convince many. What rill be interesting is what he does re labour after the election.
On other matters, I'm looking forward to seeing if Macron is the real deal.
Sky News leading with Corbyn's plan for new bank holidays. Is anyone going to ask him about the saints represented, or ask Mrs Bucket about her views on St George's Day parties?
My view on St George's day.
It is a bloody disgrace that we have some Johnny Foreigner as our patron saint. He never set foot in England.
Happy Roman Palestine born in Lydda never stepped foot in England day everybody.
Given that the moral basis of our whole society is a Johnny Foreigner religious fanatic who never set foot in England and the same applies to every one of his immediate followers after whom we name most of our important historic buildings, I would suggest that St George is quite in keeping with that particular English tradition.
But I thought the holy lamb of God walked on England's green and pleasant land.
If he did, its odd that his Missus chose France as her place of residence
Apparently French election "exit polls" are released early in Belgium/Swiss etc. In France it's at 8pm because it's embargoed until then. But they may refuse to say if it looks to be too close. It's also not actually a true exit poll but a sample of real votes from across the country, extrapolated to give overall results.
This bank holiday policy is completely bonkers. Why the f*** do we want another three holidays in March/April and bloody day off at the end of November?
I would scrap the May 1st bank holiday and move it to the first Monday of July.
I agree that even if people want another four days off, they don't want some of them clustered around Easter (and in fact with two that will probably (*) coincide with Easter in some years).
Also, how do bank holidays effect GDP? If we have roughly 250 working days a year, won't four extra days off be worth between one and two percent of GDP?
Warning: there's almost certainly some poor maths in the above ...
(*) Citation required.
Five day Easter in 2019...
These silly GDP calculations fail to recognise Parkinson's law. Dustbin men have bank holidays off, at least in these parts, but that does not imply that only four fifths of the rubbish is collected in bank holiday weeks.
That's exactly what happens.
Where I used to live, a bank holiday meant that bin day became one day later until the next bank holiday, so a 'weekly' bin collection actually happened only 50 times a year - but because it was only ever a day or two late, they hoped we didn't notice
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
It manages to tick both the lefty "perks for workers" box and a patriotic "celebrate our patron saint" box, while annoying business owners, libertarians, and economists mostly, who would never vote corbyn anyway. Relatively smart politics from team Corbyn (not that it will change anything overall of course)
To more important things. Fans of the annual Spurs choke will be pleased to know that there are some superb odds to take advantage of from the bookies this year. My SkyBet selection: * £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me) * £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1 * £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
Bank holidays are a relic from the late 19th century, before the days of annual leave entitlements. If I were dictator (and the country could do a lot worse) I'd abolish them and add the number of days to annual leave entitlements. Then people could take their holiday when they chose, not when the government thinks they should.
And I'd shoot anybody who said that this increased freedom was a bad idea.
As MPs packed into the Strangers’ Bar at Westminster on Tuesday evening, still trying to come to terms with Theresa May’s stunning Election announcement, one Labour veteran turned ruefully to his colleague and announced: ‘That’s it for me. I won’t be standing.’ ‘Why not?’ asked his startled friend. ‘Because if I did, I wouldn’t be able to vote for myself,’ he replied.
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
That's a blistering piece from Hodges, Labour will ignore the message though because of the messenger.
Hodges makes a lot of very strong points that I agree with. He is absolutely spot on about Corbyn. But he has decided to vote Tory. He could have chosen any number of parties. He could have sat on his hands. But he is backing Theresa May and a party that is heading to the right. I am afraid that this does give cover.
Well his argument is that if people sit on their hands or choose another option, labour won't be punished enough to learn the lesson they need, that it is needed to actively vote for their main opponents to learn that lesson. It's a bold argument, though it's easy to see why that does not convince many. What rill be interesting is what he does re labour after the election.
On other matters, I'm looking forward to seeing if Macron is the real deal.
I think it will be a Fillon v Le Pen run-off. They have motivated supporters. Macron's are far less so.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
Extra bank holidays would in most cases, I suspect, merely reduce the number of free-choice holidays an employee receives.
Apparently French election "exit polls" are released early in Belgium/Swiss etc. In France it's at 8pm because it's embargoed until then. But they may refuse to say if it looks to be too close. It's also not actually a true exit poll but a sample of real votes from across the country, extrapolated to give overall results.
Are they usually pretty accurate?
To my knowledge, yes. But then I think French polls have always been more accurate than UK ones , with the exception of the primaries recently.
" If you vote Labour you will elect a local champion. If you vote SNP you will elect an MP only interested in a second independence referendum. The Tories simply cannot beat the SNP in seats across Scotland – only Labour can. ”
" If you vote Labour you will elect a local champion. If you vote SNP you will elect an MP only interested in a second independence referendum. The Tories simply cannot beat the SNP in seats across Scotland – only Labour can. ”
I see that emboldened by a couple of opinion polls Scott P and Roger are churning out total lies about both Salmond and the efforts of SNP MPs
They should both remember the truth, not lies, about the nastiness of the rape clause Tories and how easy it will be to remind Scots of that.
Any Tory "victory" in Scotland can only be relative, and when the dust settles, it will be clear that the snp have far more seats than the Tories in Scotland and that delaying a referendum is merely delaying the end on the Union.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
I'm sure it is. As policies go I can see it being reasonably popular and well meaning.
Bank holidays are a relic from the late 19th century, before the days of annual leave entitlements. If I were dictator (and the country could do a lot worse) I'd abolish them and add the number of days to annual leave entitlements. Then people could take their holiday when they chose, not when the government thinks they should.
And I'd shoot anybody who said that this increased freedom was a bad idea.
With the exception of Christmas, boxing day and new year I've never worked for a company that doesn't do that.
If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
Nah, they'll say that it's no surprise the party of the three day week want to give us more days off, with the commensurate drop in GDP. However they might be willing to look at shuffling dates around to put a holiday somewhere between August and Christmas.
The Conservatives are the party that brought us the three day week. The one fact that should never be forgotten about British politics is that the Conservative reputation for economic competence is based purely on them continually claiming it. They have never actually possessed it.
If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
Nah, they'll say that it's no surprise the party of the three day week want to give us more days off, with the commensurate drop in GDP. However they might be willing to look at shuffling dates around to put a holiday somewhere between August and Christmas.
The Conservatives are the party that brought us the three day week. The one fact that should never be forgotten about British politics is that the Conservative reputation for economic competence is based purely on them continually claiming it. They have never actually possessed it.
So, that's two bank holidays a week policy then. Trumps Corbyn's.
Corbyn's stance on things like shoot to kill and drone strikes is really going to go down well with voters... The guy is so soft on national security and protecting the nation. And the tories haven't even started the Jezbollah stuff yet lol. Maybe they won't need to, he's doing a good enough job already.
To play devils advocate in defence of Corbyn's bank holiday plans: yes they don't make sense economically, and the timing of the dates is not ideal, but it could be seen as a good way of trying to foster British unionism. If we all celebrate each other's patron saint day it may go a little way towards fostering better relations between the constituent parts of the UK. No idea if that is why Corbyn has chosen this though.
If Tories copy the bank holiday plan, and frankly I'm surprised it's not already a Tory plan, for god's sake chandelier the ones we have, they are too clustered.
Nah, they'll say that it's no surprise the party of the three day week want to give us more days off, with the commensurate drop in GDP. However they might be willing to look at shuffling dates around to put a holiday somewhere between August and Christmas.
The Conservatives are the party that brought us the three day week. The one fact that should never be forgotten about British politics is that the Conservative reputation for economic competence is based purely on them continually claiming it. They have never actually possessed it.
If people believe it nonetheless, then we get what we deserve.
Corbyn's stance on things like shoot to kill and drone strikes is really going to go down well with voters... The guy is so soft on national security and protecting the nation. And the tories haven't even started the Jezbollah stuff yet lol. Maybe they won't need to, he's doing a good enough job already.
Corbyn's stance on things like shoot to kill and drone strikes is really going to go down well with voters... The guy is so soft on national security and protecting the nation. And the tories haven't even started the Jezbollah stuff yet lol. Maybe they won't need to, he's doing a good enough job already.
Every voter needs to be reminded that he has said he would not use the nuclear deterrence. Thereby making it completely worthless under his premiership. By all means argue to get rid, it's a legitimate debate - but to just tell our enemies we wont brother using it is well bonkers.
Mr. F, recall reading of a chap in Elizabethan times who had a tin nose for that reason.
But when syphilis first arrived a few centuries before that, it was a different sort of disease (more like a fever) and evolved into modern syphilis.
It's also the source of the Shakespearean: Impiety has made a feast of thee [you've fornicated with prostitutes so much you've caught syphilis, which has dramatically reduced your weight].
Mr. Indigo, not sure, I was thinking from a 14th century perspective
The astronomer Tycho Brahe had a metal nose. But that was needed after a duelling injury.
Tycho also had a pet dwarf and died from a burst bladder. By all accounts he was a bit of a character. He was, however, a brilliant observational astronomer.
Yes. His observations were accurate enough for Kepler to work out his laws of planetary motion which contributed to Newton's work.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
Not like Einstein, then: "When asked by his assistant what his reaction would have been if general relativity had not been confirmed by Eddington and Dyson in 1919 [by their observations during the total eclipse], Einstein famously made the quip: "Then I would feel sorry for the dear Lord. The theory is correct anyway."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity
One of the amazing thing about GR is how quickly it was accepted by the physics community. Eddington is another hero of mine for championing Einstein's work at a time when Anglo-German relations were a bit strained.
Of course, “the physics community” at the time was tiny.
In the famous Solvay conference picture of 1911, there are about 25 physicists, with Einstein centre stage. He only had to convince them.
I quite like Eddington, but there is no denying that Eddington’s treatment of Chandrasekhar clearly had the whiff of racism and superiority about it.
A more remarkable person from the same epoch was G.H. Hardy, whose championing of Ramanujan (an impoverished Indian untouchable) on the basis of what looked like some cranky letters was truly extraordinary. Only Hardy would have done this.
In fact, Ramaujan had sent cranky letters to three other prominent British mathematicians, but they did nothing.
After seeing Corbyn this morning I cannot image how he would stand up in any debate format. The man is unelectable
May is no great debater either. We will see if her running away from her opponents continues to work as well for 7 weeks as it has so far. And will Farron and co be able to rip Corbyn apart? Half the time would be spent attacking the not present May.
Apparently French election "exit polls" are released early in Belgium/Swiss etc. In France it's at 8pm because it's embargoed until then. But they may refuse to say if it looks to be too close. It's also not actually a true exit poll but a sample of real votes from across the country, extrapolated to give overall results.
Are they usually pretty accurate?
To my knowledge, yes. But then I think French polls have always been more accurate than UK ones , with the exception of the primaries recently.
French exit polls are accurate but we are contending with a close race this time.
Comments
Erm, as it were.
Not only would it allow him to collect yet another taxpayer cheque for losing, it would free him up to return to Holyrood and take over again, now that Nicola's bum is oot the windae
This is how the 2017 campaign begins – not with the wider electorate turning their backs on Labour, or even longstanding supporters turning their backs on the party, but with Labour MPs turning their backs on themselves.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4436410/DAN-HODGES-June-8-vote-Mrs-May.html#ixzz4f3dvzo00
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https://twitter.com/PollingDigest/status/856048471996076033
Corbyn's polling trend is wholly predictable; however - May's line bottomed out (albeit still in positive figures) at the start of the year, and then started going back up again.
This might have something, perhaps even a lot, to do with her not being Corbyn - but then again, Farron and Nuttall both have pretty negative ratings as well.
The Prime Minister has a huge advantage on personal leadership; ditto she and Hammond on economic competence. These secondary indicators were more accurate than headline VI in predicting the outcome two years ago. The evidence thus far suggests that the Tories are not complacent - reports of canvassers heading out to marginals in numbers, rumours that the MoS poll shocker story may have been party of the CCHQ GOTV effort, dark warnings of the Coalition of Chaos, Ruth Davidson telling her troops to stay on the attack.
If there is a lower turnout than last time, then there's nothing in particular to suggest that it will harm the Tories (quite the reverse: it might give the Lib Dems a few more chances in pro-EU seats if furious Remainers are really motivated, but the broader story on turnout is that the demographics favour the Tories, and a low turnout election ought to give greater weight to their elderly fan base, who are more committed voters.) The row over the debates is a damp squib: few people are going to be interested in watching half a dozen lefties scrap over the same pool of voters if May is empty-chaired.
Really, the only serious concern is the possibility of there being a shy Labour vote, but on that point I go back to the issue of the secondary questions. Corbyn and McDonnell are transcendantly unpopular and useless. Frankly, I think there's more likely to be a shy Tory vote in Scotland.
There is very good evidence that Labour support typically declines during the course of the short campaign. In each of the past six general elections, even 1997 and 2001, the Labour polling averages two months out were higher than the party's vote share on polling day. If that trend continues then Labour would end up in the low 20s.
Finally, the polls in 2015 were not that far out. They got Labour and the Tories wrong by about 3% each (and, lest we forget, it was the Conservatives who were under-estimated,) and the rest of the parties pretty much spot on. There is the possibility that May is in the low-to-mid, rather than upper, 40s, and that Corbyn is actually doing as badly as Michael Foot rather than worse - but I very much doubt it's any closer than that.
Barring a black swan, I can't see how May is going to fall that far short of a hundred seat majority - and clearly if Labour's position really is as dire as the polls suggest, and if there's more good news from Scotland and Wales, this could turn into a real bloodbath.
It also found that 15% had previously voted LibDem so 570,000 for them and 418,000 for Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/
These silly GDP calculations fail to recognise Parkinson's law. Dustbin men have bank holidays off, at least in these parts, but that does not imply that only four fifths of the rubbish is collected in bank holiday weeks.
I think this thread has just reaffirmed my knowledge of modern history is not fantastic. Not as bad as Mr. Eagles' knowledge of classical history, of course, but still not great.
How do people feel about 7 for the Conservatives to win Angus?
They call them "vanity plates".
Labour supporting twitter accounts are going to be amusing this election.
Kepler is a hero of mine: one of the first scientists in that when his hypothesis was contradicted by evidence he ditched it and started again rather than assume the data was wrong.
MAY 400
JC 150
NS 50
TF 30
PN 650
IIRC the Major Govt mooted scrapping May Day (too socialist for their tastes) and replacing it with Trafalgar Day, so I wouldn't be wholly surprised if that idea got another airing at some point. If they also wanted to give people one extra bank holiday as a present, then they could do worse than doubling up in August: Scotland currently gets one at the start of the month, everyone else at the end. They could let the whole country have both. Would go down especially well with parents of school-aged children.
Case in point http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/22/labours-problems-didnt-start-with-corbyn-but-new-labours-arrogance-in-power/
Rather sums up my parents, I had just passed my driving test, and for the first time in his life, my father bought a brand new car, and it was for me.
Replete with private number plate.
I'm already enough of a bad son, without throwing the number plates back at them.
On other matters, I'm looking forward to seeing if Macron is the real deal.
Where I used to live, a bank holiday meant that bin day became one day later until the next bank holiday, so a 'weekly' bin collection actually happened only 50 times a year - but because it was only ever a day or two late, they hoped we didn't notice
* £5 on Spurs to finish outside the top 4 at 100-1 (the most they would give me)
* £20 on Arsenal to finish above them at 66-1
* £10 on Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd to make up the final top 4 at 150-1
I look forward to Spurs paying for my summer holiday again ;-)
And I'd shoot anybody who said that this increased freedom was a bad idea.
Mr. Root, so does Labour.
Labour, throw in the towel now offering a 60 seat majority, save us some time.
" If you vote Labour you will elect a local champion. If you vote SNP you will elect an MP only interested in a second independence referendum. The Tories simply cannot beat the SNP in seats across Scotland – only Labour can. ”
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/general-election-sunday-post-poll-shows-tory-vote-share-set-to-soar-while-labour-face-more-misery/
They should both remember the truth, not lies, about the nastiness of the rape clause Tories and how easy it will be to remind Scots of that.
Any Tory "victory" in Scotland can only be relative, and when the dust settles, it will be clear that the snp have far more seats than the Tories in Scotland and that delaying a referendum is merely delaying the end on the Union.
Enjoy your Pyrrhic victory
I know they are no 50/1 shots but the time frame is pleasingly short
F1 is rather more competitive than British politics...
In the famous Solvay conference picture of 1911, there are about 25 physicists, with Einstein centre stage. He only had to convince them.
I quite like Eddington, but there is no denying that Eddington’s treatment of Chandrasekhar clearly had the whiff of racism and superiority about it.
A more remarkable person from the same epoch was G.H. Hardy, whose championing of Ramanujan (an impoverished Indian untouchable) on the basis of what looked like some cranky letters was truly extraordinary. Only Hardy would have done this.
In fact, Ramaujan had sent cranky letters to three other prominent British mathematicians, but they did nothing.
I suspect SLab have further to fall, once he gets broader exposure over the next 7 weeks.
https://twitter.com/rhodri_jones/status/855881247423377408
Once Shadsy puts up his odds betfair will fall in line and the fun times will be over.