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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation in LeaveE

SystemSystem Posts: 12,554
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the Electoral Commission orders an investigation in LeaveEU’s referendum finances

Independent

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    Revoke the article 50 notification until this is resolved.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,947
    edited April 2017
    Second, unlike Corbyn, if there is any justice in the world.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    LOL.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    edited April 2017
    Plus we can't rule on Russian interference in the EURef can we Comrade Leavers.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Revoke the article 50 notification until this is resolved.

    No let's not, we could arrest Nigel Farage just for giggles though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    edited April 2017
    Leave.eu wasnt the official campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,140
    Leave EU were a bunch of nobodies, it was all down to the good work of Vote Leave :lol:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,947
    Mr Putin didn't fully disguise the money he was channeling their way?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    Come on Gina Miller, you know you want to get the courts involved in this.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Revoke the article 50 notification until this is resolved.

    Why? Remainers spent months saying the referendum was only "advisory" and won their case at the Supreme Court. The referendum result, therefore, had no impact on the A50 notification.

    0/10, must try harder.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    edited April 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    It looks like Labour will only be interviewing potential candidates for currently held seats. Everywhere else they will select from a stack of CVs.

    I guess your CV needs to be full of a load of wank about being a deligate to this and a committee member on that, rather than the stuff you are actually good at.

    No danger there. Staines will havr his minions all over them in order to sell some hit pieces to the MSM.

    I wonder if we will get madder than the ukip candidate who was proudly a porn performer?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    I see Ian Lavery is Labour's election co-ordinator.

    ' Veteran Labour blogger Hopi Sen, along with Sunday Times journalist James Lyons (£), wrote one year ago about how Lavery had received redundancy payments from the tiny trade union he led, the rump National Union of Mineworkers he took over from Arthur Scargill, over a period of years. And a loan that has no evidence of ever being repaid.

    They related how, among fact-finding missions to the Caribbean and India by his cronies, the £1.6m compensation payments paid to the union on behalf of invalided-out miners had been frittered away to a fraction of their original levels. Nearly £800k of it was paid directly to Lavery in remuneration, pension and car allowance. And that is not to mention a somewhat unusual £75k mortgage loan, which was later very kindly written off by the union (Lavery declined to give the names of the relevant trustees at the time). And later £62k redundancy costs, even though Lavery resigned (thus rendering himself, one presumes, ineligible for redundancy).

    Lavery had no satisfactory answers to the questions raised by Sen and Lyons. And that seems to be because there exist no satisfactory answers. There are now at least two investigations being carried out into Lavery, which have yet to report. In short, there are very serious questions to answer by the former General Secretary, regarding the use of funds deriving from sick miners, who gave their money to the union in good faith. '

    http://thecentreleft.blogspot.com/2017/02/ian-lavery-should-not-be-labours.html

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I'm surprised yougov haven't resurrected the daily tracker. There is a thirst for polling, especially from the leading side.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,366
    Does this mean we Remoaners should have argued the Referendum WAS totally binding if valid, but was actually null and void as it happens? ;-)

    Seriously, it could cause problems for Aaron Banks, with knock ons for his nasty little "send 'em back & have Douglas Carswell shot for treason" movement. But I don't think May will lose sleep.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    Jason said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I'm surprised yougov haven't resurrected the daily tracker. There is a thirst for polling, especially from the leading side.
    I am guessing that was bloody expensive for the currant bun.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,497
    Odoxa

    Macron 24.5%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%

    http://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/impact-evenements-20-avril-lelection-presidentielle/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leave.EU was not the official Leave campaign; the referendum took place nearly a year ago, and the arguments and controversies thereof are now old hat; and one assumes it is highly unlikely that any report into potential wrongdoing will appear this side of June 8th.

    This story is of marginal importance.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    And on that farm, there were some rams...

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/855438697550024704
  • glwglw Posts: 10,456
    another_richard said:

    Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?

    Of course not, that's completely legitimate, just like the $5 billion spent in 2016 by Presidential and Congressional campaigns and lobbying. But you know some stupid frog meme and Russian trolls are what did it for Trump, that $5 billion was completely wasted. ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Brexit's Bad Boys?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Are Labour really appealing for candidates on Twitter?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?

    Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.

    And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I've received three poll invites in the last hour. From YouGov, Opinium, and Populus.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    This was my constituency (Greenwich & Woolwich) two years ago.

    Lab 52.2
    Con 26.6
    UKIP 8.3
    Grn 6.4
    LD 5.7
    TUSC 0.8

    Three-way marginal this time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,566
    MTimT said:

    Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?

    Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.

    And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.

    The truth is that 520 to 480 is not that close: almost 10% more people voted one way than the other.

    Percentages matter. But 52:48 is not actually that close.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,058
    Black_Rook said:

    This story is of marginal importance.

    Mainly in Tory-Lib Dem marginals.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    The Ian Lavery story:

    https://storify.com/hopisen/defending-good-unions-doesn-t-mean-protecting-bad-

    ' Newsnight has also identified a sum of £109,911 written off in the union's books in 2007. This is almost exactly the figure Mr Lavery would have owed on the £72,500 mortgage if he had made no, or very low, payments over the 13-year period. '

    ' A second puzzle relates to Mr Lavery's redundancy. He acknowledges he received £62,000 in redundancy payments but insists he doesn't recognise a second payment of £85,426, logged on the union's books in 2013. '

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36046675
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,921
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plus we can't rule on Russian interference in the EURef can we Comrade Leavers.

    maybe we can lock up Osborne and Cameron for printing all those leaflets at taxpayer expense
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,566
    edited April 2017
    another_richard said:

    Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?

    Yeah but that was in the (supra)national interest :smiley: :
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ThreeQuidder said:

    This was my constituency (Greenwich & Woolwich) two years ago.

    Lab 52.2
    Con 26.6
    UKIP 8.3
    Grn 6.4
    LD 5.7
    TUSC 0.8

    Three-way marginal this time?

    Easy Labour hold. Something like Lab 47%, Con 30%, LD 14%, Green 6%, UKIP 3%
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Anyone see that horrible Labour PPB?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    AndyJS said:

    Are Labour really appealing for candidates on Twitter?

    Looks like it.

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/855435974200803328
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    AndyJS said:

    Are Labour really appealing for candidates on Twitter?

    Yup.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?

    Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.

    And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.

    The truth is that 520 to 480 is not that close: almost 10% more people voted one way than the other.

    Percentages matter. But 52:48 is not actually that close.
    Thanks for the reply, Robert. I know that percentages matter. But I am still interested in the answer to my question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plus we can't rule on Russian interference in the EURef can we Comrade Leavers.

    maybe we can lock up Osborne and Cameron for printing all those leaflets at taxpayer expense
    It was in the national interest.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plus we can't rule on Russian interference in the EURef can we Comrade Leavers.

    maybe we can lock up Osborne and Cameron for printing all those leaflets at taxpayer expense
    It was in the national interest.
    Isn't that Erdogan's line ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39622335
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    FPT
    Black_Rook said:

    valleyboy said:

    Wales opinion poll due Monday. I'm hearing very good news for you Tories. Labour could lose 10 seats to Tories and Plaid.
    Pass me the sick bag

    There's been recent commentary on this. It's certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that Labour could be totally wiped out in North Wales, and fail to win a majority of all Welsh seats for the first time since 1931.

    A projection made at the start of the year on the proposed revised boundaries suggested that the Welsh Tories could reach near parity with Labour, if the polling figures then available were replicated at a General Election. Given the trend GB-wide, it's not inconceivable that Welsh Labour's situation may have worsened since then.
    There 5 Labour held seats in N. Wales, and the safest is Alyn & Deeside with a majority of 3343.

    In Nick Palmer’s words, Tick, tock ...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    AndyJS said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    This was my constituency (Greenwich & Woolwich) two years ago.

    Lab 52.2
    Con 26.6
    UKIP 8.3
    Grn 6.4
    LD 5.7
    TUSC 0.8

    Three-way marginal this time?

    Easy Labour hold. Something like Lab 47%, Con 30%, LD 14%, Green 6%, UKIP 3%
    Yeah, that's what I really expect. But on the inner/outer London grey area, pretty Remainery (Greenwich borough 55% Remain), if Corbyn collapses and/or it really does become a single-issue election (which I don't expect), I could see Labour losing 15% to Lib Dem which puts marginal status in play (though the egregious Pennycook will surely hold).
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    Would this, if proven, give any legal grounds to challenge the result?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?

    Yeah but that was in the (supra)national interest :smiley: :
    I remember some Conservative MEP published a list of which MEPs got audited by the European parliament.

    Every single one was an EUsceptic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,316
    isam said:

    Leave EU were a bunch of nobodies, it was all down to the good work of Vote Leave :lol:

    And Labour Leave, who wanted the voters to a) Leave and b) wipe the smile off the faces of Cameron and Osborne. You have to say, the best Labour campaign since Blair....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Are they going to have an investigation into the taxpayers money used for Remain propaganda ?

    Yeah but that was in the (supra)national interest :smiley: :
    I remember some Conservative MEP published a list of which MEPs got audited by the European parliament.

    Every single one was an EUsceptic.
    To be fair, that's most UK MEPs...
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.

    Weren't the Cambridge Spies mainly homosexual?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    ThreeQuidder said:

    This was my constituency (Greenwich & Woolwich) two years ago.

    Lab 52.2
    Con 26.6
    UKIP 8.3
    Grn 6.4
    LD 5.7
    TUSC 0.8

    Three-way marginal this time?

    Eltham will be where the action is near you.

    Possibly Erith & Thamesmead if Labour disintegrates.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,111
    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.

    Weren't the Cambridge Spies mainly homosexual?
    Yup. I think Kim Philby wasn't.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Jason said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I'm surprised yougov haven't resurrected the daily tracker. There is a thirst for polling, especially from the leading side.
    I think if a paper had commissioned YouGov to do a daily tracker, they’d have jumped at the chance. – Can’t think why none have bothered this time…!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    YBarddCwsc said:

    FPT

    Black_Rook said:

    valleyboy said:

    Wales opinion poll due Monday. I'm hearing very good news for you Tories. Labour could lose 10 seats to Tories and Plaid.
    Pass me the sick bag

    There's been recent commentary on this. It's certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that Labour could be totally wiped out in North Wales, and fail to win a majority of all Welsh seats for the first time since 1931.

    A projection made at the start of the year on the proposed revised boundaries suggested that the Welsh Tories could reach near parity with Labour, if the polling figures then available were replicated at a General Election. Given the trend GB-wide, it's not inconceivable that Welsh Labour's situation may have worsened since then.
    There 5 Labour held seats in N. Wales, and the safest is Alyn & Deeside with a majority of 3343.

    In Nick Palmer’s words, Tick, tock ...
    Didn't those patronising update stop a few days before the election as he realised that in the absence of a properly socialist leader, Labour was heading for defeat?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,566
    Novo said:

    Would this, if proven, give any legal grounds to challenge the result?

    No. Next question.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,566
    chestnut said:

    Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.

    Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,057
    Novo said:

    Would this, if proven, give any legal grounds to challenge the result?

    What difference would it make? Thanks to Gina Miller, the result of the referendum is technically irrelevant. It was the Parliamentary vote that led us to trigger article 50.

    If it had been held to be binding, something might have been done. But now...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,566
    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?

    Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.

    And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.

    The truth is that 520 to 480 is not that close: almost 10% more people voted one way than the other.

    Percentages matter. But 52:48 is not actually that close.
    Thanks for the reply, Robert. I know that percentages matter. But I am still interested in the answer to my question.
    The answer is that - assuming resources scale linearly with population - then percentages, and only percentages, matter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,111
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    Leave EU were a bunch of nobodies, it was all down to the good work of Vote Leave :lol:

    And Labour Leave, who wanted the voters to a) Leave and b) wipe the smile off the faces of Cameron and Osborne. You have to say, the best Labour campaign since Blair....
    Too right!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    another_richard said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    This was my constituency (Greenwich & Woolwich) two years ago.

    Lab 52.2
    Con 26.6
    UKIP 8.3
    Grn 6.4
    LD 5.7
    TUSC 0.8

    Three-way marginal this time?

    Eltham will be where the action is near you.

    Possibly Erith & Thamesmead if Labour disintegrates.
    E&T:

    Lab 49.8
    Con 27.4
    UKIP 17.3
    LD 2.3
    Grn 2.3
    CPA 0.6
    EngDem 0.4

    Not massively dissimilar, a bit more UKIP than LD/Grn. If E&T is in danger, G&W ought to be close enough to be describable as a marginal.

    And the fact we are even discussing this as even remotely possible is quite frightening.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I've received three poll invites in the last hour. From YouGov, Opinium, and Populus.
    Have u given them all different answers?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    I know that we all read news through our own mental filters. But it is always hard to admit that one is, oneself, so susceptible to such filters.

    Sadly, I misread this BBC story "Jeremy Corbyn has held a rally to a crowd of hundreds in Cardiff - calling for voters to join him on a journey of "hope and excitement""

    For some inexplicable reason, I misread the last word as 'excrement' :o
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Side Note:

    That William Hill market on Labour MPs resigning in 2017. Didn't that state it only counted if they took the chiltern hundreds or an equivalent? So the snap election basically guarantees a win for the 6 or under option. Even Metro Mayor winners won't technically resign.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Freggles said:

    Anyone see that horrible Labour PPB?

    Just seen it. OMG. So Labour intends to patronise voters into submission.

    I hope Mr Dancer's space cannon is fully serviced I think almost everyone involved in Labours campaign might need to be fired into the heart of the Sun.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    Novo said:

    Would this, if proven, give any legal grounds to challenge the result?

    No. Next question.
    Will it lead to:

    A. Endless whinging; and

    B. Journalists and Twitter users running the risk of it falling off as they become excitable?

    Will that do?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Brexit's Bad Boys?

    The B's.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.

    Weren't the Cambridge Spies mainly homosexual?
    Yup. I think Kim Philby wasn't.
    Greens to win Sheffield Central at 25/1 looks interesting to me.

    They're strong in Central and Broomhill wards and I don't see the inhabitants of the Manor having a big turnout.

    Have you any ideas about how enthused the Asian vote in Sharrow and Nether Edge is with Labour at present ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,057
    ToryJim said:

    Freggles said:

    Anyone see that horrible Labour PPB?

    Just seen it. OMG. So Labour intends to patronise voters into submission.

    I hope Mr Dancer's space cannon is fully serviced I think almost everyone involved in Labours campaign might need to be fired into the heart of the Sun.
    The Murdochs have hearts?

    May I ask if you evidence for this truly extraordinary claim?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leave.eu wasnt the official campaign.

    Don't remind Aaron Banks of that, he still cannot let that decision go.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    I take it from the lack of MPs announcing standing down today that the window is now closed - or can we expect more?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    AndyJS said:

    Are Labour really appealing for candidates on Twitter?

    Makes sense - on Twitter, Labour not only are on course to win this election, they won the last one too, so it should be easy to find suitable candidates.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,111
    HurstLlama said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
    Well of course we don't, but we could spin that we would better target the aid at proper deserving causes rather than in support of our 'interests'.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I know it's only just started but is it just me in thinking that corbyn's had a good few days in his attacks on the con's and his own unfunded policies ;-)

    Theresa just can't sit back,the tv news media are her opposition.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    Freggles said:

    Anyone see that horrible Labour PPB?

    Just seen it. OMG. So Labour intends to patronise voters into submission.

    I hope Mr Dancer's space cannon is fully serviced I think almost everyone involved in Labours campaign might need to be fired into the heart of the Sun.
    The Murdochs have hearts?

    May I ask if you evidence for this truly extraordinary claim?
    Autocorrect capitalised the S inadvertently.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.

    Weren't the Cambridge Spies mainly homosexual?
    Yup. I think Kim Philby wasn't.
    Greens to win Sheffield Central at 25/1 looks interesting to me.

    They're strong in Central and Broomhill wards and I don't see the inhabitants of the Manor having a big turnout.

    Have you any ideas about how enthused the Asian vote in Sharrow and Nether Edge is with Labour at present ?
    I'll have a better idea this weekend.

    My Lib Dem friends in Dore are saying Hallam will see the Tories finish second ahead of Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Oh please, pensioners are not being screwed over by any means and we're still in deep economic shit, if one good thing that comes of this is that the Tories don't duck some hard decisions for fear of upsetting the grey vote, it shall be worth it.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,973
    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Theresa May confirmed the aid budget but there will be a review into how it is spent. She affirmed pensioners were £1250 better off and gave no indication on the content of the manefesto relating to the triple lock and certainly no mention of VAT. And by the way, I did listen to her live

    Before anyone jumps to conclusions let us wait for the manifesto and at least it will be the genuine article not like labour's ridiculous 'rolling manifesto'
  • JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    SimonStClare said:

    Jason said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    In more important news, how can we have gone nearly 48 hours in an election campaign without a poll? :(

    I'm surprised yougov haven't resurrected the daily tracker. There is a thirst for polling, especially from the leading side.
    I think if a paper had commissioned YouGov to do a daily tracker, they’d have jumped at the chance. – Can’t think why none have bothered this time…!
    If the tracker poll only published the daily changes +/- that'd be fine, but everyone wants to know the headline figures, and a daily tracker isn't suitable for that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,676
    Superb trolling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Theresa May confirmed the aid budget but there will be a review into how it is spent. She affirmed pensioners were £1250 better off and gave no indication on the content of the manefesto relating to the triple lock and certainly no mention of VAT. And by the way, I did listen to her live

    Before anyone jumps to conclusions let us wait for the manifesto and at least it will be the genuine article not like labour's ridiculous 'rolling manifesto'
    Sounds to me like you're jumping to conclusions that Labour's rolling manifesto will be ridiculous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,676
    I see Betfair Sports are offering the LDs in Vauxhall at 15/8!

    Those who backed with Robert at 10/1 can lay off for guaranteed profit by backing Labour here at 4/6.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    SandyRentool said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
    Well of course we don't, but we could spin that we would better target the aid at proper deserving causes rather than in support of our 'interests'.
    You mean like the Conservative Party have done today? I am fairly sure that I have read that a new conservative government will be more careful in how the money is spent. Mind you I remember Justine Greening and Priti Patel saying exactly the same things.

    Maybe having a department whose only performance indicator is how much borrowed money they can get rid of my not be the best idea.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm applying to be a Labour parliamentary candidate.

    As an alumnus of Cambridge, we have form for being the greatest double/sleeper agents in history.

    For the greater good.

    Weren't the Cambridge Spies mainly homosexual?
    Yup. I think Kim Philby wasn't.
    Greens to win Sheffield Central at 25/1 looks interesting to me.

    They're strong in Central and Broomhill wards and I don't see the inhabitants of the Manor having a big turnout.

    Have you any ideas about how enthused the Asian vote in Sharrow and Nether Edge is with Labour at present ?
    I'll have a better idea this weekend.

    My Lib Dem friends in Dore are saying Hallam will see the Tories finish second ahead of Labour.
    I've noticed that Natalie Bennett is the Green candidate in Sheffield Central so its bound to get plenty of whatever resources the Greens have.

    As to Hallam I expect Clegg will lose the tactical votes of 2015 and there's no way Labour will run the high energy campaign they did last time.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Theresa May confirmed the aid budget but there will be a review into how it is spent. She affirmed pensioners were £1250 better off and gave no indication on the content of the manefesto relating to the triple lock and certainly no mention of VAT. And by the way, I did listen to her live

    Before anyone jumps to conclusions let us wait for the manifesto and at least it will be the genuine article not like labour's ridiculous 'rolling manifesto'
    Sounds to me like you're jumping to conclusions that Labour's rolling manifesto will be ridiculous.
    The concept of a rolling manifesto is ridiculous, its content will be even worse
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2017
    If the Tories commit to the pensioner triple lock in this election, I don't think it will ever be abolished. Hopefully May and Hammond do the sensible thing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,297
    MTimT said:

    I know that we all read news through our own mental filters. But it is always hard to admit that one is, oneself, so susceptible to such filters.

    Sadly, I misread this BBC story "Jeremy Corbyn has held a rally to a crowd of hundreds in Cardiff - calling for voters to join him on a journey of "hope and excitement""

    For some inexplicable reason, I misread the last word as 'excrement' :o

    100s....with 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation, surely they mean 100,000s?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,676
    HurstLlama said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
    They don't want to piss off India before getting a trade deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Michael Crick: if Corbyn loses the election he may want to continue as Labour leader.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,973
    AndyJS said:

    Michael Crick: if Corbyn loses the election he may want to continue as Labour leader.

    You don't say
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    Does anyone know of any analytical work that reviews whether 17,410,742 to 16,141,241 is really as close as 519 to 481?

    Personally, I don't buy it. Particularly in the world of politics, my view is that as the absolute numbers go up, it gets harder and harder to overturn the same percentage split.

    And yet, OGH and others perpetuate this myth that somehow the referendum was close because of the percentages. It was not. Leave won by ~ 1.3 MILLION votes.

    The truth is that 520 to 480 is not that close: almost 10% more people voted one way than the other.

    Percentages matter. But 52:48 is not actually that close.
    Thanks for the reply, Robert. I know that percentages matter. But I am still interested in the answer to my question.
    The answer is that - assuming resources scale linearly with population - then percentages, and only percentages, matter.
    I guess I am questioning the assumption of scaling linearly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,947
    Casino_Royale said:

    I see Betfair Sports are offering the LDs in Vauxhall at 15/8!

    Those who backed with Robert at 10/1 can lay off for guaranteed profit by backing Labour here at 4/6.

    Is Robert still taking bets?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,366
    JeremyBeadle said:

    4/7 for Labour to hold Rhondda @ PP over PC surely value???

    No. Leanne Wood is considering standing. She won the Assemby seat at a canter last year and would probably be narrow favourite for Plaid. So it'll move either in or out depending on her choice - it's not obviously great value.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,018
    MTimT said:



    Sadly, I misread this BBC story "Jeremy Corbyn has held a rally to a crowd of hundreds in Cardiff - calling for voters to join him on a journey of "hope and excitement""

    "A journey of hope and excitement"? Hundreds is a few too many to take on an eastern European bicycling holiday, isn't it?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour will probably add votes in inner East, North and South East London.

    Not in Hampstead they won't. They lose a chunk of Remain voters to the LibDems, handing the seat to the Conservatives.
    I meant the N postcodes rather than NW - the Edmonton, Islington, Stoke Newington's.

    Any borough that used to be prefixed 'The Socialist Republic of' by the press back in the 1980s.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Professor Scully isn't rowing back on his claims about the poll he's releasing on Monday:

    https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855443637479624704
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2017
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/855463755429408768

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/855460089364439040

    Labour's campaign showing about as much evidence of success as the Corbyn Relaunch thus far.

    And Labour now has 47 days left in which to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and sustained by the support of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Howard Jones on Top of the Pops '83 on BBC4 right now.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,839
    HurstLlama said:

    SandyRentool said:

    HurstLlama said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So today we have learned that the Tories want to screw over pensioners and put up VAT yet again, while still throwing money at foreign despots and their vanity projects.

    Expect a poll boost for May.

    A half decent opposition, etc., etc....

    Mr. Rentool, does any mainstream party object to the idea that the UK should borrow £13bn (and rising) a year to give away to foreign despots and vanity projects?
    Well of course we don't, but we could spin that we would better target the aid at proper deserving causes rather than in support of our 'interests'.
    You mean like the Conservative Party have done today? I am fairly sure that I have read that a new conservative government will be more careful in how the money is spent. Mind you I remember Justine Greening and Priti Patel saying exactly the same things.

    Maybe having a department whose only performance indicator is how much borrowed money they can get rid of my not be the best idea.
    Poor financial management is ironically one of the problems of third world countries.
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    Re Labour PPB. I wonder what proportion of those children went to State Schools? If they were recruited from the private sector wouldn't that be bare-faced hypocrisy?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/855463755429408768

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/855460089364439040

    Labour's campaign showing about as much evidence of success as the Corbyn Relaunch thus far.

    And Labour now has 47 days left in which to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and sustained by the support of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.

    Incidentally, 14% is about the same proportion of respondents as chose Corbyn over May for the best PM question. Could something in the ball park of 15% be Labour's absolute floor for the General Election, and not ~25% as I'd previously thought?

    If something sounds too good to be true then it probably is. Alas.
This discussion has been closed.