The Sun is quite right. FFS exclude students from the migration stats, forget the tens of thousands shit, concentrate on what is right for the UK, not an abstract figure. And give up the 0.7% aid crap.
The problem isn't students coming in for 2-3 years, and leaving again. Tourists do that each year for 2-3 weeks, in their millions, and leave again. And we don't count them.
The problem is the "students" who come in under the pretence of a temporary education visa, and then settle here either illegally or via a much easier legal route subsequently.
Those are the ones we need to know about, and count.
SO COUNT THEM. And their dependants. AS THEY LEAVE.
But in the meantime take them out of the stats: miraculously reducing net migration by 130,000. Job done.
How does not including students reduce net migration ?
Student arrives - is counted as an immigrant. Student leaves - is counted as an emigrant.
And if you think trying to fiddle the figures will be 'job done' on immigration concerns you need to leave your comfort zone for a while.
I think Theresa May should increase the age for free bus passes from 60 to 65 and risk losing some votes. She can afford to lose a couple of seats if that's what happens.
This kind of stuff she doesn't even need to put in the manifesto surely? Can't she just do it later in the year and then people have 4 years to get used to it.
I think I might have to turn off all media and not read PB....knee knocking here at the thought of PM Corbyn.
You're this worried with a 20% poll lead? You have no need to be. The public rejected Brown and Miliband - they sure as hell aren't going to elect an unhinged, dimwitted, 70 year old far left terrorist sympathiser. These headlines are the early firing shots of a very long campaign. The Sun are sabre rattling - they don't want to see Corbyn in Downing Street any more than we do.
As Corporal Jones said 'don't panic!!'.
One of my Green voting, Corbyn sympathetic friends asked me for a prediction - I said Lab would really tank once the right wing tabs got their file of Loony Left Jez n' John stories from the 1980s out.
Most people aged over 45 living in England have a clear memory of an active PIRA targeting civilians, and won't be aware of Jezza's past associations as he was an insignificant backbencher.
The British public shat it in the polling booth at the prospect of Kinnock, as he was Welsh and ginger, so Chairman Jez has got no chance.
Very true they would not vote for Ed Milliband because he had a funny smile, Kinnock because he was ginger and Welsh foot because he was old and did not wear the correct overcoat.If you are a Labour leader you have to look like a English Tory to win over the plebs.
PISA, who collect comparative international data on educational outcomes, do so to identify common trends amongst the best performing education systems and promote best practice. They reckon class sizes don't make a difference but teacher pay does. The implication being that you're better using your inevitably limited education budgets to fund fewer but better teachers.
Putting it another way, if teachers want those generous salaries, the deal is they take on larger classes.
I'm pretty sure parents are keen on smaller class sizes however.
I believe this is also the OECD prescription. Will try to avoid repeating points I made downthread but the I can't see this trade-off ever being explored in the UK, particularly with teachers also getting the additional planning/assessment/ongoing training time they get in some of the more successful countries taking the route of high class size/high pay/highly educated practitioners. If class sizes do go up, it'll be cost-cutting (or related, recruitment/retention) reasons alone.
Thanks. Nitpick. PISA is the OECD.
Good nitpick, cheers. Has been a while since I looked at this stuff but OECD does an awful lot more education work than just PISA. I seem to recall the OECD recommendations I was reading on education policy re class size weren't done under the aegis of their PISA project, but I may well be misremembering.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
For God sake,the con's should be on the front foot with 20% lead but what have had is theresa running away from tv debates,Theresa running away from pension lock,Theresa running away from tax hikes and the only firm hard stance is on oversea's aid - which is a vote loser in my opinion.
What we have got is corbyn on the front foot,pull your f-king finger out Theresa.
These posts are reminding me of Casino R's reported missives to Matthew Elliot during the referendum....
I.e. Well meaning but entirely unnecessary :-)
Come on morti,even you must admit it's been a sh!t start ;-)
What a difference a day makes, or even a few hours.
Reading the posts on here this evening (not least those of Ave_it who seems to have jumped ship) and you could easily convince yourself that the forthcoming GE is going to be a mightily close run thing!
'Why X will be the most important constituency result this general election'
Hmmm. Nuneaton as it was a bellweather last time? Dumfries and Galloway to test if there is an SCON surge? Gower because its in Wales and was a surprise gain last time? Thanet South because UKIP?
For God sake,the con's should be on the front foot with 20% lead but what have had is theresa running away from tv debates,Theresa running away from pension lock,Theresa running away from tax hikes and the only firm hard stance is on oversea's aid - which is a vote loser in my opinion.
What we have got is corbyn on the front foot,pull your f-king finger out Theresa.
These posts are reminding me of Casino R's reported missives to Matthew Elliot during the referendum....
I.e. Well meaning but entirely unnecessary :-)
Come on morti,even you must admit it's been a sh!t start ;-)
She's probably getting all the bad announcements out the way now and the rest of the campaign will concentrate on Brexit.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Don't worry, even if he was that popular it won't happen - the system is rigged, remember? That children's story teller bloke said so.
The foreign secretary added, ‘I think the new President (of the United States) has said that he wants to put Britain at the front of the line’
He has not said anything, just some figures in the US administration have said they will consider an EU trade deal and given the US imports far more from the EU than it exports while it imports slightly less from the UK than it exports I don't see any evidence Trump will be rushing to put an EU deal first
'Why X will be the most important constituency result this general election'
Hmmm. Nuneaton as it was a bellweather last time? Dumfries and Galloway to test if there is an SCON surge? Gower because its in Wales and was a surprise gain last time? Thanet South because UKIP?
'Why X will be the most important constituency result this general election'
Hmmm. Nuneaton as it was a bellweather last time? Dumfries and Galloway to test if there is an SCON surge? Gower because its in Wales and was a surprise gain last time? Thanet South because UKIP?
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Now you mention it perhaps it may be worth the dirty feeling of voting Labour just to see that happen.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Weirdly it's one year tomorrow since Barry made his #BackOfTheQueue comment...
So much is based on British politeness and willingness to wait our turn.
I still think hardball is the way to go.
Slash corporation tax to 10% and deregulate the city. Be the thorn in the EU's side if they refuse to give us an equitable deal.
If the USA don't respect the special relationship end special treatment for intelligence, no more extraordinary rendition, no more bending the rules UK side so no constitutional rights aren't breached. If that doesn't work, eff off out of NATO and hand over every file we've got to the russians. What are the US going to do, nuke us?
Nice post.
There never was and never will be a "special relationship" just a relationship of mutual interests. If those interests change over time...
So if it's a choice between keeping the lights on in our schools and hospitals and keeping up our NATO membership then of course NATO has to go... Leave The Donald with his European "friends" and get the hell out.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Don't worry, even if he was that popular it won't happen - the system is rigged, remember? That children's story teller bloke said so.
Indeed, though if Momentum or UNITE do the rigging he will look the other way!
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
May is his boss, if she tells him not to raise taxes that's what he'd do. So seems like you need her sacked.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Very much opposite of the Sun
I expect most sensible voters think the same and as she is lightyears ahead of Corbyn with the over 60s there will be virtually no political cost anyway
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Very much opposite of the Sun
I expect most sensible voters think the same and as she is lightyears ahead of Corbyn with the over 60s there will be virtually no political cost anyway
She might win that age group by only 80 % rather than 85%
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
May is his boss, if she tells him not to raise taxes that's what he'd do. So seems like you need her sacked.
Night all.
The narrative is developing of Theresa May parking her tanks on the centre ground and while the right may not like it it is why Blair won in 1997 and TM will in June with a good majority
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Now you mention it perhaps it may be worth the dirty feeling of voting Labour just to see that happen.
Becoming a country which makes Cuba and North Korea look inviting is not really worth that no
Sky News on May's potentially unpopular decisions on tax, pensions and aid:
The fact that the Prime Minister is able to make (or not make) these pledges is telling.
It seems inconceivable that David Cameron would have retreated from these vote-winning measures in 2015 when he felt the Labour party was breathing down his neck.
Likewise he assumed he wouldn't win the 2015 election outright and therefore that manifesto was not meant to be the governing document.
He assumed he would have to trade away measures in negotiations with the Lib Dems so felt he could be looser with the manifesto's contents.
For Theresa May and Philip Hammond, they neither perceive a threat from the opposition nor do they believe they will have to build a coalition.
Whatever is in their manifesto they will find themselves attached to and expected to uphold, lest they risk the wrath of the electorate. Therefore they're being careful.
And with an expected big win, feel they can take a few unpopular decisions now and spare themselves trouble later.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Very much opposite of the Sun
I expect most sensible voters think the same and as she is lightyears ahead of Corbyn with the over 60s there will be virtually no political cost anyway
She might win that age group by only 80 % rather than 85%
Yes and the 5% would go UKIP or LD on the whole not Labour
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Now you mention it perhaps it may be worth the dirty feeling of voting Labour just to see that happen.
Becoming a country which makes Cuba and North Korea look inviting is not really worth that no
It would only be temporary given how much a shambles the hard left are, but perhaps it would be the kick up the arse the country needs.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Spend more money - absolutely on the NHS and Social care. It has got to come from somewhere
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Very much opposite of the Sun
Dacre [HEARTS] May doesn't he?
Dacre also [HEARTED] Gordon Brown.
Dacre's a man with piss poor tastes, no wonder he backed Brexit.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza I expect half the Tory Party will be packing their bags for Monaco, Singapore, Switzerland, Australia and the US by lunchtime on June 9th never mind worrying about who will lead them in the People's Republic of Corbynstan
Now you mention it perhaps it may be worth the dirty feeling of voting Labour just to see that happen.
Becoming a country which makes Cuba and North Korea look inviting is not really worth that no
It would only be temporary given how much a shambles the hard left are, but perhaps it would be the kick up the arse the country needs.
No, coupled with Brexit which Corbyn would not reverse his brand of socialism would leave us in a far worse state than we were even in 1979, we would be an economic basketcase under a Corbyn government and anyone with half a brain and any marketable talent would move abroad for the duration of his premiership
No more opinion polls relating to the election are allowed to be published in France until after polls close on Sunday evening.
Average of most recent five (taken from French Wikipedia page):
Macron 23.8% Le Pen 22.5% Fillon 19.5% Mélenchon 18.8%
Assume Le Pen gets into R2 and Mélenchon doesn't. Then Fillon needs a swing of 2.2% with respect to Macron; and in R2 Le Pen would need a swing of 7.2% against Fillon, going by the hypothetical R2 polling. If Fillon fails to make it to the runoff, then in R2 Le Pen would need a huge swing of 13.6% against Macron.
So if Putin is as good as is made out, the runoff will be Le Pen-Fillon.
If the next president does try for a "Dave's deal", Germany won't play ball, there's a referendum in or before November 2017 in which the president calls for Leave, and the people vote Leave, how long will it take for Article 50 to get served? My money would be on about a fortnight.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
She wants to repatriate a whole bunch of EU bodies. An uncosted promise of course...
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
She wants to repatriate a whole bunch of EU bodies. An uncosted promise of course...
More than offset by the ending of contributions to the EU budget.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
She wants to repatriate a whole bunch of EU bodies. An uncosted promise of course...
More than offset by the ending of contributions to the EU budget.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
She wants to repatriate a whole bunch of EU bodies. An uncosted promise of course...
More than offset by the ending of contributions to the EU budget.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Spend more money - absolutely on the NHS and Social care. It has got to come from somewhere
Grow the tax base. It's what Tories are supposed to do. I'd rather have a smal slice of a big pie than a big slice of a small pie.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
She wants to repatriate a whole bunch of EU bodies. An uncosted promise of course...
More than offset by the ending of contributions to the EU budget.
But that's alll being spent on the NHS.
I hope not. I'd definitely vote against that daft idea.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Theresa May will get a majority of over 100 with or without the Sun having orgasms over her manifesto!
Just read the Daily Mail and very supportive of Theresa May making the hard but correct decisions and not confirming the 15 billion cost of the triple lock on pensions.
Very much opposite of the Sun
Dacre [HEARTS] May doesn't he?
Dacre also [HEARTED] Gordon Brown.
Dacre's a man with piss poor tastes, no wonder he backed Brexit.
The Raint still supported Dave (and George) when it counted in 2010 (and 2015) don't forget.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Weirdly it's one year tomorrow since Barry made his #BackOfTheQueue comment...
So much is based on British politeness and willingness to wait our turn.
I still think hardball is the way to go.
Slash corporation tax to 10% and deregulate the city. Be the thorn in the EU's side if they refuse to give us an equitable deal.
If the USA don't respect the special relationship end special treatment for intelligence, no more extraordinary rendition, no more bending the rules UK side so no constitutional rights aren't breached. If that doesn't work, eff off out of NATO and hand over every file we've got to the russians. What are the US going to do, nuke us?
Nice post.
There never was and never will be a "special relationship" just a relationship of mutual interests. If those interests change over time...
So if it's a choice between keeping the lights on in our schools and hospitals and keeping up our NATO membership then of course NATO has to go... Leave The Donald with his European "friends" and get the hell out.
The 'special relationship' was British lives and money being wasted for US interests in return for British politicians being able to posture more on the world stage.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Spend more money - absolutely on the NHS and Social care. It has got to come from somewhere
Grow the tax base. It's what Tories are supposed to do. I'd rather have a smal slice of a big pie than a big slice of a small pie.
Are you against the NATO 2% of GDP target on principle for the same reason? Enough spending is enough, and just because the private sector generates more wealth, that's no reason to increase unrelated spending elsewhere.
The foreign secretary added, ‘I think the new President (of the United States) has said that he wants to put Britain at the front of the line’
He has not said anything, just some figures in the US administration have said they will consider an EU trade deal and given the US imports far more from the EU than it exports while it imports slightly less from the UK than it exports I don't see any evidence Trump will be rushing to put an EU deal first
I think that's wrong. The fact both the EU and the UK export more to the the US than they import is the reason why Trump wants trade deals with them - to "rebalance" that trade.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Slight overreaction, the wonderful tax lock that was dreamed up to fill an empty day in the news diary, never intended to be implement as the lib dems wouldn't accept it, that tax lock? Tory chancellors have managed to reduce tax without a tax lock many a time.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Pollsters have supposedly corrected their Lab bias so we'll see...
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
Very substantial ones in the most recent EFO.
Looks like it has expenditure dropping as a fraction of GDP up until the end of the forecast period in 2020/2021.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
Very substantial ones in the most recent EFO.
Looks like it has expenditure dropping as a fraction of GDP up until the end of the forecast period in 2020/2021.
With rising GDP that represents a huge increase in real terms spending.
One of the most surprising things about the polls is how well the UKIP vote appears to be holding up in the circumstances. They suggest the party will still get around 3 million votes compared to 3.881 million in 2015.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Wasn't this the famous PB golden rule of polling? The Tories always do better than the polls say. Or perhaps it was the opposite: Labour always do worse than they indicate.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
A serious question Max.
Which would you chose:
Low tax or balanced books ?
Ideally both... but I would rather there be one final push to get the deficit eliminated, so I'd prioritise the latter over the former.
The foreign secretary added, ‘I think the new President (of the United States) has said that he wants to put Britain at the front of the line’
He has not said anything, just some figures in the US administration have said they will consider an EU trade deal and given the US imports far more from the EU than it exports while it imports slightly less from the UK than it exports I don't see any evidence Trump will be rushing to put an EU deal first
I think that's wrong. The fact both the EU and the UK export more to the the US than they import is the reason why Trump wants trade deals with them - to "rebalance" that trade.
The Times has the figures despite its misleading headline, the US imported $417 billion from the EU last year and exported only $270 billion, the US imported $54 billion from the UK and exported $55 billion to the UK and the EU will be in no rush to reduce its exports to the US
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
May is his boss, if she tells him not to raise taxes that's what he'd do. So seems like you need her sacked.
Night all.
The narrative is developing of Theresa May parking her tanks on the centre ground and while the right may not like it it is why Blair won in 1997 and TM will in June with a good majority
Exactly. With Ukip a smouldering ruin, she's very close now to uniting the Right; this also leaves low-tax libertarians with nowhere else to go. So she can now turn her attention to chunks of Labour's working class base, including (but not limited to) those who have broken the Labour habit by voting Ukip in the past, and may now be ready to complete the journey to her side. The aim must surely be to build a 21st Century version of pre-Thatcher, One Nation Toryism, and to create a huge new voter coalition revolving, basically, around provincial, small-c conservative values.
Socialists and liberal internationalists aren't going to like it very much, but the Tories are going to try to sweep up just about everybody else.
One of the most surprising things about the polls is how well the UKIP vote appears to be holding up in the circumstances. They suggest the party will still get around 3 million votes compared to 3.881 million in 2015.
Not with a vastly reduced set of candidates they won't.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Slight overreaction, the wonderful tax lock that was dreamed up to fill an empty day in the news diary, never intended to be implement as the lib dems wouldn't accept it, that tax lock? Tory chancellors have managed to reduce tax without a tax lock many a time.
True but I don't get the feeling this particular Chancellor is interested in reducing tax. His interests seems to be increasing tax and particularly in making those most likely to have voted for Brexit suffer the "consequences"...
For God sake,the con's should be on the front foot with 20% lead but what have had is theresa running away from tv debates,Theresa running away from pension lock,Theresa running away from tax hikes and the only firm hard stance is on oversea's aid - which is a vote loser in my opinion.
What we have got is corbyn on the front foot,pull your f-king finger out Theresa.
These posts are reminding me of Casino R's reported missives to Matthew Elliot during the referendum....
I.e. Well meaning but entirely unnecessary :-)
Come on morti,even you must admit it's been a sh!t start ;-)
She's probably getting all the bad announcements out the way now and the rest of the campaign will concentrate on Brexit.
Gin,the announcements of today will be brought up all the way through the GE,she can't get away from them unless she backtracks and looks weak.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
Very substantial ones in the most recent EFO.
Looks like it has expenditure dropping as a fraction of GDP up until the end of the forecast period in 2020/2021.
With rising GDP that represents a huge increase in real terms spending.
But then you also have to factor in population growth and the age distribution. I have not seen any evidence that they plan to go on a spending binge.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
A serious question Max.
Which would you chose:
Low tax or balanced books ?
Ideally both... but I would rather there be one final push to get the deficit eliminated, so I'd prioritise the latter over the former.
All that does is entrench a structural deficit, the only way to properly balance the books is to cut spending. Cutting the deficit by increasing taxation will leave the UK massively exposed during the next downturn.
Cut benefits and cut waste. There is more than enough fat to trim.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Wasn't this the famous PB golden rule of polling? The Tories always do better than the polls say. Or perhaps it was the opposite: Labour always do worse than they indicate.
I think OGH's golden rule was that the lowest Labour poll score was the most likely to be right.
Weirdly it's one year tomorrow since Barry made his #BackOfTheQueue comment...
So much is based on British politeness and willingness to wait our turn.
I still think hardball is the way to go.
Slash corporation tax to 10% and deregulate the city. Be the thorn in the EU's side if they refuse to give us an equitable deal.
If the USA don't respect the special relationship end special treatment for intelligence, no more extraordinary rendition, no more bending the rules UK side so no constitutional rights aren't breached. If that doesn't work, eff off out of NATO and hand over every file we've got to the russians. What are the US going to do, nuke us?
Nice post.
There never was and never will be a "special relationship" just a relationship of mutual interests. If those interests change over time...
So if it's a choice between keeping the lights on in our schools and hospitals and keeping up our NATO membership then of course NATO has to go... Leave The Donald with his European "friends" and get the hell out.
The 'special relationship' was British lives and money being wasted for US interests in return for British politicians being able to posture more on the world stage.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Wasn't this the famous PB golden rule of polling? The Tories always do better than the polls say. Or perhaps it was the opposite: Labour always do worse than they indicate.
I think OGH's golden rule was that the lowest Labour poll score was the most likely to be right.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Low taxation doesn't mean backing yourself into a corner or springing an elephant trap for yourself. It's an albatross around the neck of government. Watering it down doesn't mean suddenly we are going to steal Melenchons tax plans, just a little extra wiggle room. I'd be happy if they had specific things in mind like for instance a large increase in the upper earnings limit coupled with moves to bring the lower limit up nearer the income tax threshold plus some move on the self employed anomalies.
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
Have there been proposed increases in spending?
Very substantial ones in the most recent EFO.
Looks like it has expenditure dropping as a fraction of GDP up until the end of the forecast period in 2020/2021.
With rising GDP that represents a huge increase in real terms spending.
But then you also have to factor in population growth and the age distribution. I have not seen any evidence that they plan to go on a spending binge.
The government looking to dump the pledge and the triple lock means they must be. You only need to do one or the other.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Low taxation doesn't mean backing yourself into a corner or springing an elephant trap for yourself. It's an albatross around the neck of government. Watering it down doesn't mean suddenly we are going to steal Melenchons tax plans, just a little extra wiggle room. I'd be happy if they had specific things in mind like for instance a large increase in the upper earnings limit coupled with moves to bring the lower limit up nearer the income tax threshold plus some move on the self employed anomalies.
No, but the government dumping it weeks after having to U-turn on tax rises is enough to raise suspicion that this is going to be a tax and spend administration.
Theresa May has enough unfunded hobby horses of her own and Hammond doesn't have the balls to grasp the nettle of in working benefits and corporate subsidies for Starbucks and other poorly paying employers.
As you might be able to tell, I'm incensed by this decision. We are not the party of raising tax, the tax lock shouldn't be difficult to adhere to for a proper small state Conservative. The issue is that Theresa is a big government Conservative, she believes in the power of the state rather than the individual.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
A serious question Max.
Which would you chose:
Low tax or balanced books ?
Cut spending and achieve both.
So what £50bn plus from current government spending would you cut ?
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
A serious question Max.
Which would you chose:
Low tax or balanced books ?
Cut spending and achieve both.
So what £50bn plus from current government spending would you cut ?
Tax credits, housing benefits for in working people.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Low taxation doesn't mean backing yourself into a corner or springing an elephant trap for yourself. It's an albatross around the neck of government. Watering it down doesn't mean suddenly we are going to steal Melenchons tax plans, just a little extra wiggle room. I'd be happy if they had specific things in mind like for instance a large increase in the upper earnings limit coupled with moves to bring the lower limit up nearer the income tax threshold plus some move on the self employed anomalies.
No, but the government dumping it weeks after having to U-turn on tax rises is enough to raise suspicion that this is going to be a tax and spend administration.
Theresa May has enough unfunded hobby horses of her own and Hammond doesn't have the balls to grasp the nettle of in working benefits and corporate subsidies for Starbucks and other poorly paying employers.
The tax lock was stupid, the triple lock unaffordable madness, 0.7% nonsensical virtue signaling. So 2 out of 3 isn't bad;)
I see it doesn't take much for panic to set in. The election isn't in full swing yet, these are the early skirmishes. Clearly the PM intends to fight this election in her way and on her terms. That's fine. Scrapping the aid target would be silly, the amounts are minuscule in the grand scheme of things. It's perfectly reasonable to keep the target and look at how it's delivered. On the triple lock I think it's wise to look at it, at the moment government policy is massively intergenerationally unfair. The tax lock needs to be revised in some way because it is overly prescriptive, I think there are ways of squaring it. I tend to be on the side of promissory minimalism in that the less you pledge the less you can be caught breaking. Also the more loosely you draw whatever promises you do make the more leeway you have if things turn sour.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The problem isn't that the government want to get rid of the tax lock for the sake of flexibility, they want to do it to raise taxes so they can spend more money. How is that any different from what Labour would do? How can any self-respecting Conservative defend tax and spend. It is and has always been a disaster.
There is some targeted additional spend, and I'd far rather it was funded through taxation than additional borrowing. Not all additional spending is bad. Also the process of Brexit will impact economic performance, id rather the government hadn't hamstrung itself in terms of dealing with it. Im as averse to tax raising and unnecessary spending as any conservative but I try to avoid becoming an ideologue about it.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%. Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Wasn't this the famous PB golden rule of polling? The Tories always do better than the polls say. Or perhaps it was the opposite: Labour always do worse than they indicate.
I think OGH's golden rule was that the lowest Labour poll score was the most likely to be right.
That rule failed in 2010 but worked in 2015.
I suspect that the Cleggasm affected things somehow.
If Tessa does lose this election would she be allowed to stay on as LOTO? Or would it finally be the moment for Boris to seize the crown?
If Tessa loses this election against Jezza, she'll have been no confidenced by the Tory party before the sun has risen on June 9th
Maybe George will be wishing he'd hung around in a few weeks...
George can still lead from the Lords until a seat opens up.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
Dumping the tax lock will be the last straw for me. Spoke to my dad today and he's 9n the same train. What are we if we're not for low taxation. Hammond is rubbish and needs to be sacked.
Low taxation doesn't mean backing yourself into a corner or springing an elephant trap for yourself. It's an albatross around the neck of government. Watering it down doesn't mean suddenly we are going to steal Melenchons tax plans, just a little extra wiggle room. I'd be happy if they had specific things in mind like for instance a large increase in the upper earnings limit coupled with moves to bring the lower limit up nearer the income tax threshold plus some move on the self employed anomalies.
No, but the government dumping it weeks after having to U-turn on tax rises is enough to raise suspicion that this is going to be a tax and spend administration.
Theresa May has enough unfunded hobby horses of her own and Hammond doesn't have the balls to grasp the nettle of in working benefits and corporate subsidies for Starbucks and other poorly paying employers.
As you might be able to tell, I'm incensed by this decision. We are not the party of raising tax, the tax lock shouldn't be difficult to adhere to for a proper small state Conservative. The issue is that Theresa is a big government Conservative, she believes in the power of the state rather than the individual.
In some respects Trump is also a big government conservative, see his rows with the Freedom Caucus over Trumpcare, May is not really a Thatcherite just as Trump is not really a Reaganite either despite the attempts to draw comparisons between them
Comments
Student arrives - is counted as an immigrant.
Student leaves - is counted as an emigrant.
And if you think trying to fiddle the figures will be 'job done' on immigration concerns you need to leave your comfort zone for a while.
No, I've got it - Tatton.
But I'm glad more and more PBers are now saying what I've been saying for months.
Theresa May is fucking crap.
Within a few months you'll be praying that George Osborne becomes PM.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-usa-trump-ivanka-idUSKBN17M26N
Ivanka Trump to join Merkel at G20 women's summit in Germany next week
Brace yourself, one of my pieces on Sunday uses the word 'shag' and not in a carpet sense.
FretBed: 1/5
Hilliam Will: 1/2
Maddy Mower: evens
Bradlokes: 3/2
Bet 24/7: 2/1
Very much opposite of the Sun
propagandathreads on Sunday! I will be at the Diesel Gala at Epping Ongar RailwayThere never was and never will be a "special relationship" just a relationship of mutual interests. If those interests change over time...
So if it's a choice between keeping the lights on in our schools and hospitals and keeping up our NATO membership then of course NATO has to go... Leave The Donald with his European "friends" and get the hell out.
Night all.
The Labour campaign is a catastrophe it is scooting along just above implosion already. It isn't going to survive the full onslaught. Now will that translate into a vote and seat meltdown? Possibly. I think the polls will narrow slightly, I suspect the Conservatives will win by 15 points it thereabouts not the 20-25 of current polling. It will be a substantial victory.
The fact that the Prime Minister is able to make (or not make) these pledges is telling.
It seems inconceivable that David Cameron would have retreated from these vote-winning measures in 2015 when he felt the Labour party was breathing down his neck.
Likewise he assumed he wouldn't win the 2015 election outright and therefore that manifesto was not meant to be the governing document.
He assumed he would have to trade away measures in negotiations with the Lib Dems so felt he could be looser with the manifesto's contents.
For Theresa May and Philip Hammond, they neither perceive a threat from the opposition nor do they believe they will have to build a coalition.
Whatever is in their manifesto they will find themselves attached to and expected to uphold, lest they risk the wrath of the electorate. Therefore they're being careful.
And with an expected big win, feel they can take a few unpopular decisions now and spare themselves trouble later.
http://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2017-why-tories-are-ready-to-court-unpopularity-10845718
Dacre's a man with piss poor tastes, no wonder he backed Brexit.
Average of most recent five (taken from French Wikipedia page):
Macron 23.8%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 18.8%
Assume Le Pen gets into R2 and Mélenchon doesn't.
Then Fillon needs a swing of 2.2% with respect to Macron; and in R2 Le Pen would need a swing of 7.2% against Fillon, going by the hypothetical R2 polling.
If Fillon fails to make it to the runoff, then in R2 Le Pen would need a huge swing of 13.6% against Macron.
So if Putin is as good as is made out, the runoff will be Le Pen-Fillon.
If the next president does try for a "Dave's deal", Germany won't play ball, there's a referendum in or before November 2017 in which the president calls for Leave, and the people vote Leave, how long will it take for Article 50 to get served? My money would be on about a fortnight.
The Tories outperformed EVERY poll (But 1) in terms of vote share as the polls should have been measuring it.
The Tories ended up on 36.9%, but this includes NI - without NI they got 37.8%. No poll had 38%, one poll in the entirety of 2015 had them on 39%.
Most polls overestimated Labour too.
Tory chancellors have managed to reduce tax without a tax lock many a time.
Which would you chose:
Low tax or balanced books ?
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/855518447668776960/photo/1
Socialists and liberal internationalists aren't going to like it very much, but the Tories are going to try to sweep up just about everybody else.
The Liverpool effect shows no sign of weakening in that Chester by-election.
Cut benefits and cut waste. There is more than enough fat to trim.
But not it seems in Greater Merseyside.
I remember a comment which Sean Fear made recently that places which were formerly very religious turn left politically when the religion fades.
Liverpool was a religious place.
Theresa May has enough unfunded hobby horses of her own and Hammond doesn't have the balls to grasp the nettle of in working benefits and corporate subsidies for Starbucks and other poorly paying employers.
As you might be able to tell, I'm incensed by this decision. We are not the party of raising tax, the tax lock shouldn't be difficult to adhere to for a proper small state Conservative. The issue is that Theresa is a big government Conservative, she believes in the power of the state rather than the individual.
Presumably they both realise that if May doesn't win (and that means doesn't get a majority) then the Fox takeover of Sky will be off.
OFCOM report back to Culture Secretary has been delayed until after GE so deal can't be approved before then.
And zero chance anything other than a Con majority Government will approve it, whatever OFCOM says.
So 2 out of 3 isn't bad;)